{"id":7115,"date":"2013-07-05T11:38:29","date_gmt":"2013-07-05T15:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7115"},"modified":"2013-07-05T11:38:29","modified_gmt":"2013-07-05T15:38:29","slug":"june-2013-monthly-review-of-nats-rotation-by-opponent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7115","title":{"rendered":"June 2013 Monthly review of Nats rotation by Opponent"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4749\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ZimmermannJordan_landing-unk-via-sportsun.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4749\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-4749\" alt=\"Jordan Zimmermann is quietly putting together a Cy Young season.  Photo Unk.\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ZimmermannJordan_landing-unk-via-sportsun.com_-150x150.jpg\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4749\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jordan Zimmermann is quietly putting together a Cy Young season. Photo Unk.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Continuing a monthly series of look-backs at our starters (here\u2019s <a href=\"Apr: http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6605\">Apr 2013<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=6503\">May 2013<\/a>), here\u2019s a monthly glance at how our rotation is doing from a Starting Pitching standpoint. As with previous posts, we\u2019ll have \u201cGrades\u201d per outing, the team\u2019s performance per opposing starter sliced and diced a few ways, and other per-starter stuff that I like to track.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Rotation Per-Start Grades<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gonzalez: A,C+,A-,A,B,A<\/li>\n<li>Zimmermann: A,A+,D-,A+,A<\/li>\n<li>Strasburg: A-,A+,B+<\/li>\n<li>Detwiler: C-,D,F,C<\/li>\n<li>Jordan: C-<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Ohlendorf: A<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Karns: D+,F-&gt;sent back to AA<\/li>\n<li>Haren: F,D-,D,F -&gt; d\/l<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Discussion: The team had to cover for injuries to both <strong>Stephen\u00a0Strasburg<\/strong> and <strong>Ross\u00a0Detwiler<\/strong>, and those spot starts were hit-or-miss. \u00a0<strong>Ross Ohlendorf<\/strong> and his 1920&#8217;s wind-up covered excellently, and he earned a longer look serving as\u00a0<strong>Zach Duke<\/strong>&#8216;s replacement. \u00a0\u00a0<strong>Taylor Jordan<\/strong>&#8216;s debut was mediocre, but he fared much better than\u00a0<strong>Dan Haren<\/strong> did on the month, putting in poor-to-awful outings all month before mercifully being sent to the D\/L. Only\u00a0<strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> and (quietly)\u00a0<strong>Gio Gonzalez<\/strong>\u00a0maintained some form of consistency for the team, each putting in 4-5 excellent outings in June.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Rotation Order Number<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nA look at the opposing team\u2019s rotation ranked 1-5 in the order they\u2019re appearing from opening day.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>0-3<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Hudson, Chacin (2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>4-3<\/td>\n<td>Diamond, De La Rosa, Cahill, Harvey<\/td>\n<td>Maholm, Masterson, De La Rosa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Hefner, Kazmir<\/td>\n<td>Correia, Lee, Gee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>4-2<\/td>\n<td>Francis, Kendrck, Miley, Wheeler<\/td>\n<td>Gee, Kluber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Lannan, Corbin<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5+<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<td>Denudo, Oswalt, Chatood<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>There&#8217;s no shame in going 0-3 against other team&#8217;s &#8220;Aces,&#8221; even if they&#8217;re not exactly league-wide Aces. \u00a0But you HAVE to do better than 0-2 against the #5 starters on other teams.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Actual Performance Rank Intra-Rotation<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nA ranking of opposing teams\u2019 rotations by pure performance at the time of the series, using ERA+ heavily.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Harvey, Chatwood<\/td>\n<td>Correia, Lee, Corbin<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>5-3<\/td>\n<td>Diamond, De La Rosa, Cahill, Kendrick, Wheeler<\/td>\n<td>Maholm, Masterson, De La Rosa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Hefner, Miley<\/td>\n<td>Chacin (2), Kluber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Gee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Hudson, Gee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5+<\/td>\n<td>4-1<\/td>\n<td>Kazmir, Francis, Denudo, Oswalt<\/td>\n<td>Lannan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The Nats show pretty good success against the 2nd-best starters on other teams, but once again seem to have let-up against pitchers who are scuffling this year. \u00a0Note that <strong>Dillon Gee<\/strong> is listed as being the 4th best Mets pitcher at one point and then the 5th best at another; that&#8217;s because I do the starter analysis of each team at the time of the series and Gee&#8217;s standing changed over the course of the month.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher League-wide \u201cRank\u201d<\/strong><br \/>\nA team-independent assignment of a league-wide \u201crank\u201d of what the starter is. Is he an \u201cAce?\u201d Is he a #2?<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<td>Harvey<\/td>\n<td>Lee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Corbin, Hudson<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<td>Chatwood, Cahill, Wheeler<\/td>\n<td>Maholm, De La Rosa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>4-3<\/td>\n<td>Diamond, De La Rosa, Miley, Oswalt<\/td>\n<td>Masterson, Chacin (2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>5-5<\/td>\n<td>Kendrick, Hefner, Kazmir, Francis, Denudo<\/td>\n<td>Correia, Kluber, Gee (2), Lannan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>This table, as my frequent readers know, is the Meat of this analysis. \u00a0Here we see that the team somehow got a win when Cy Young candidate\u00a0<strong>Matt Harvey<\/strong> was on the mound but other wise lost when league wide Aces and #2s were the opponent. \u00a0What is more concerning here is just how many times our Nats lost to league wide #5 starters. \u00a0These are near replacement-leve pitchers who a supposed playoff contender should be feasting on. \u00a0Maybe\u00a0Gee isn&#8217;t a #5 starter, since he beat us twice. \u00a0But a career <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/g\/geedi01.shtml\">90 ERA+<\/a>\u00a0says otherwise. \u00a0You have to win the games you&#8217;re supposed to win.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Records by Pitching Advantage<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nStart-by-start advantages in my own opinion and then looking at the results.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Advantage Desc<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Matchups in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Matchups resulting in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"40\">Wash<\/td>\n<td>10-4<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Stras-Corbin, Gio-Masterson, Gia-Correia, Stras-Kluber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"40\">Even<\/td>\n<td>1-3<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Karns-Denudo<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Gio-Hudson, Haren-Gee, Haren-Lannan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Opp<\/td>\n<td>2-6<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Detwiler-Harvey, Ohlendorf-De La Rosa<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Perhaps the most damning evidence of the evolution of our .500 team is this fact: in April of this month I only thought our opponents had the clear starting pitching matchup advantage two times out of 27 games. \u00a0In June? \u00a0I gave our opponents this advantage 8 times out of 26 games. \u00a0The Nats managed to pull out a couple of these clear pitching dis-advantages when New York&#8217;s bullpen blew\u00a0Harvey&#8217;s gem against us, and when Ohlendorf outpitched\u00a0<strong>Jorge De La Rosa<\/strong> in his one spot start.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Matchup analysis<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nLooking at the opposing starter rank that our guys are going up against to see how their competition fares.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"148\" height=\"20\">Nats Starters Opponents<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">matchup analysis<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Nats Record under starter<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Strasburg<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>A #4, a #5 and a #5+<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Gonzalez<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>One Ace, Two #2s, One #3, Two #4s<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Zimmermann<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>A #2, two #3s, a #4 and a 5+<\/td>\n<td>5-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Haren<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Two Aces, a #4 and a #5<\/td>\n<td>0-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Detwiler<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Two #2s, One #3, One #4<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Karns<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>A #2 and a 5+<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Jordan<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>A #3<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Ohlendorf<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>A #2<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>team ttl for month:<\/td>\n<td>13-13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>By June, our rotation is so jumbled that rotational order is almost meaningless. \u00a0Strasburg is clearly our &#8220;Ace&#8221; but is pitching out of the #3 rotational order by virtue of his D\/L stint. \u00a0And you can see that other teams face the same issue. \u00a0The 0-4 record for Haren&#8217;s starts is pretty damning; this has to change when he comes back or we need to look elsewhere and eat his $13M in salary.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Continuing a monthly series of look-backs at our starters (here\u2019s Apr 2013 and May 2013), here\u2019s a monthly glance at how our rotation is doing from a Starting Pitching standpoint. As with previous posts, we\u2019ll have \u201cGrades\u201d per outing, the team\u2019s performance per opposing starter sliced and diced a few ways, and other per-starter [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[983,784,385,43,729,1666,51,1554,38,24],"class_list":["post-7115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-dan-haren","tag-dillon-gee","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jorge-de-la-rosa","tag-matt-harvey","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ross-ohlendorf","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-taylor-jordan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7115"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7115\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7156,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7115\/revisions\/7156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}