{"id":7121,"date":"2013-07-02T08:44:18","date_gmt":"2013-07-02T12:44:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7121"},"modified":"2013-07-02T08:44:18","modified_gmt":"2013-07-02T12:44:18","slug":"ask-boswell-7113-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7121","title":{"rendered":"Ask Boswell 7\/1\/13 Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Desmond;<\/a>

Ian Desmond; trouble-maker. Photo Drew Kinback\/Natsnq.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Another month, another .500 record for the Nats. \u00a0At the halfway point they’re 41-40, on pace for a fantastic 82-80 record. \u00a0Well, the Cardinals won the World Series a few years back making the post-season 83-79, so maybe all is not lost (sarcasm). \u00a0Though, the last couple days have seen unprecedented offensive output (they’ve scored 10+ runs twice in a row after only having done it once prior).<\/p>\n

Bryce Harper<\/strong> is back after missing nearly 5 weeks of games (and hitting badly through another 4 weeks in May of them before that), and promptly hits a homer in his first AB off the D\/L. \u00a0 With Harper’s inclusion, we’ll finally see the “ideal offensive lineup<\/a>” that I touched on last week. \u00a0On paper, a 2-7 of Werth-Harper-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Desmond-Rendon looks really, really good.<\/p>\n

In this light, lets see what kind of baseball questions\u00a0Tom Boswell<\/strong> took in his pre-holiday chat on 7\/1\/13<\/a>. \u00a0As always, I’ll write my answer here before reading his to avoid bias and edit questions for clarity (since a lot of the “questions” he takes are rambling complaints about this or that).<\/p>\n

Q: Are the Nationals as a team missing the “spark” they need to rally for the playoffs?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: I’ve talked about the outflow of “chemistry” this team lost when\u00a0Michael Morse<\/strong> was dealt before. \u00a0I’ve also speculated in this space before about whether or not this team has too many “uber serious” players. \u00a0 In many ways winning consistently creates “chemistry” but I also think the reverse is true if you don’t have the right guys with leadership voices in the clubhouse. \u00a0Is the return of one hitter (albeit their best) going to change the tune for this team? \u00a0Boswell notes that the team faces a significant hole: 6.5 games in the division, 5.5 games just for the wild-card coin flip game<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Thoughts on Taylor Jordan? \u00a0Does he get a 2nd Start?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: See here for my post over the weekend<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0Taylor Jordan<\/strong>, and Yes he gets a 2nd start. \u00a0He only gave up one earned run. \u00a0 Lets see what Boswell said: Boswell has a good point: he liked Jordan, thought he had potential .. but then noted that this team needs to go 50-31 to make the playoffs and you’re not going to go 50-31 with a rookie as your 5th starter. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0With Werth appearing to be injured, do you see Davey moving Harper to right and Werth to left field?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: Well, this is one of those “veteran manager” moves from Davey Johnson<\/strong> that gets me sometimes. \u00a0 I believe that\u00a0Jayson Werth<\/strong> is inarguably a lesser fielder than\u00a0Harper (who would be playing center for nearly every other team in the league by virtue of his range and arm). \u00a0Harper’s arm is one of the best in the league. \u00a0He’s younger, faster and covers more ground (excellent range per UZR\/150 numbers in center last year). \u00a0So why is Werth in right? \u00a0Because he’s the vet. \u00a0Harper won’t take over RF until Werth advances in age or gets a new manager who isn’t afraid to move him and his 9 figure salary to the position he should be in. \u00a0I disagree with Boswell’s opinion on this one; he thinks Werth is the more polished OF and that Harper got hurt playing RF. \u00a0As if he wouldn’t have run into a wall eventually playing elsewhere.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Do we need alterations to the Balk rule?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: At some level yes. \u00a0I think there’s a huge difference between some slight bobble in your motion and a blatant attempt to deceive the runner by “flinching” or doing a purposeful stop-start head motion. \u00a0 Its the difference between inadvertant and purposeful deception. \u00a0And the embarassing umpire<\/a> “Balking” Bob Davidson<\/strong>\u00a0needs to be reigned in. \u00a0Plus, nearly every left-handed pitcher uses a “balk move” to first on a regular basis, almost never stepping directly at the bag. \u00a0And when was the last time you saw a right-hander get a balk call for throwing over to first while bending his right leg? \u00a0But, in the grand scheme of things I’m not sure the Balk rule is the great scourge of our modern game (see ball-strike zone consistency, instant replay, ongoing PED issues, and salary discrepancies making the league a group of haves and have-nots). \u00a0Boswell doesn’t understand the Balk but loves it<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0At what point do Zimmerman’s errors accelerate the conversation to move him to 1B?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: We can start talk about moving Ryan Zimmerman<\/strong>\u00a0the moment that\u00a0Adam LaRoche<\/strong>‘s contract runs out. \u00a0 \u00a0Anthony Rendon<\/strong> can play 2B in the interim and eventually move back over to his natural position. \u00a0Before then? \u00a0Somebody would have to get seriously hurt or traded in order to make any modifications to our infield. \u00a0\u00a0Boswell points something out I didn’t think about: Zimmerman is playing very shallow because his arm strength is shot … hence why he made those two errors in the saturday\u00a0Jordan start.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Should we look to trade for Nolasco?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: I had to laugh; the questioner also asked if the Marlins would pick up his salary. \u00a0Haha. \u00a0Have you not see the M.O. for\u00a0Jeffrey Loria<\/strong> by now? \u00a0Hoard every nickle in every deal. \u00a0 That being said, I think we’d have the biggest chance of trading intra-division with Miami versus anyone else; they seem to be amenable to take back less in return for taking salary off their hands (see the\u00a0Willingham\/Olsen<\/strong> deal a while back).<\/p>\n

A better question; should we be forcing a trade for pitching at all? \u00a0Even with the\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong> issues all year the team is 5th in the majors in ERA<\/a> (10th in adjusted ERA+). \u00a0 Of course, the four teams above us are all either divisional rivals or challengers for the wild card. \u00a0 But the point is this: you need to fix what’s wrong, and the pitching overall isn’t what’s wrong. \u00a0Its offense. \u00a0Its bench production. \u00a0Its hitting. \u00a0Trade for something that helps fix the problem. \u00a0Boswell just talks about how we have enough money and how we shouldn’t give up any decent prospects<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Is there a stat that shows how many a player’s errors relate directly to runs scored?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: Unearned runs? \u00a0Except I’ve never seen someone directly tie the two together. \u00a0Therefore probably not, because this type of research likely will have a Sabre-tinged analyst immediately say, “I’m not doing that because Errors are not the best way to measure fielders.” \u00a0Then they’ll point at (in this case speaking of Zimmerman) his UZR\/150<\/a> (an awful -20.2 for 2013 thus far), his Defensive Runs Saved (strikingly he’s actually cost the team 2 runs so far, projecting for a -4 rDRS<\/a> for the year) or his Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) which measures out at 3.0 so far in 2013,<\/a> slightly above average. \u00a0 My narrative on Zimmerman’s steep decline this year in range and defensive metrics goes as follows: nursing leg injuries and forced to play further up, Zimmerman’s not making the plays he normally would, which is being reflected in his UZR decline. \u00a0Meanwhile FRAA correctly measures that he’s still a slightly above average fielder. \u00a0Boswell doesn’t know.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0With Harper coming back, I’m assuming that Rendon slides down to seventh. Is that the best place for him? Also, is he too good of a hitter to bat seventh? With Ramos coming back soon, does this make the Nats a much more dangerous offensive team?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: I’m not so sure I’d move Rendon down; he’s the absolute prototypical #2 hitter. \u00a0He hits to all fields, he’s especially good at hitting to right, he’s got a .360 OBP, and is a great tablesetter for the 3-4-5 guys. \u00a0No, I think you move everyone else down a spot. \u00a0 Of course, that being said, if you had a manager with any cajones, he’d move Werth to the #7 spot since everyone else in this equation is a better hitter right now. \u00a0But it won’t happen, so either Ian\u00a0Desmond<\/strong> or Rendon likely moves to #7.<\/p>\n

With Wilson Ramos<\/strong> back as I’ve noted in this space<\/a>, yes this should finally let the Nats put out their best, strongest lineup. \u00a0\u00a0Boswell says Werth bats #2, pointout his OBP is .330. \u00a0I’ll now point out that that OBP is 10% less than Rendon’s right now. \u00a0But I can’t argue with Boswell’s point that Rendon could use the pressure taken off of him … until you remember that Harper didn’t seem to have any issues batting #2 all year last year. \u00a0\u00a0Update<\/b>: Boswell called it right: Werth is batting #2<\/a> upon Harper’s return.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q: Why would Davey claim the Lerners want him out?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: That’s a reasonable conclusion from reading\u00a0Mike Wise<\/strong>‘s article over the weekend<\/a>. \u00a0He seems to intimate that the ownership group is frustrated with the team’s performance this year and puts some of it at Johson’s feet. \u00a0At least that’s the way Johnson interprets it. \u00a0Boswell has an interesting point; he says this is a young team and the owners want a manager who can be here for 5-10 years … Johnson is 70 and they don’t see him as the solution<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q: Should Yasiel Puig be an all-star?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: If it were me, absolutely yes I’d make Yasiel Puig<\/strong>\u00a0an all-star, give him an at-bat later in the game. \u00a0He’s been electric, he’s been the best hitter in the league for half this season. \u00a0He’s still hitting .436<\/a> through 100 at bats!. \u00a0Having him at the game just makes it more of a fan draw. \u00a0Boswell thinks he’ll be a late injury replacement. \u00a0I hope so.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Which team has more wins at the end of 162, O’s or Nats?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: Easy; the Orioles. \u00a0They’ve already got a 10 game head start. \u00a0I don’t think the Nats are going to be 10 games better than Baltimore in the 2nd half. \u00a0Boswell punts<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Did Desi violate the unwritten code yesterday by slamming a home run into the restaurant when the Mets had a position player on the mound?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: No way. \u00a0Of all the unwritten rules out there, the one that is unassailable is that a batter gets a legitimate chance to get a good swing in at the plate no matter what the score. \u00a0There’s limits (you can’t swing out of your shoes on a 3-0 pitch when winning by 10 runs) but I don’t see how Desmond’s bomb counts. \u00a0\u00a0Boswell says Desmond’s HBP earlier negates all rules. \u00a0Not sure I agree with that reasoning unless the HBP was in any way possible deliberate<\/em>. \u00a0Later on another questioner notes that he thought the Desmond HBP was definitely deliberate; I turned the game off when the Nats knocked out Wheeler, figuring they had it sewn up, and didn’t see the fracas<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Why haven’t media such as yourself chastised the Nats for the foolish contracts given to Werth (injury prone, strikeout prone, shaky defensively), Soriano (too much to pay a closer who is not automatic), and Haren? In Philadelphia, all three contracts would have been regarded as somewhere between bad and stupid.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A: Wow. \u00a0Well, not to re-hash the same reasoning we’ve had over-and-over about these guys, but here goes:<\/p>\n