{"id":713,"date":"2011-02-25T14:12:03","date_gmt":"2011-02-25T19:12:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=713"},"modified":"2013-01-31T15:27:00","modified_gmt":"2013-01-31T20:27:00","slug":"why-is-bernadina-the-presumed-lf-starter-over-morse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=713","title":{"rendered":"Why is Bernadina the presumed LF Starter over Morse?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Morse did nothing but mash in 2010. Why are the Nats trying so hard to NOT use him in 2011? Photo hardballtalk.nbcsports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

(Ironically, as I was penning\/researching this posting all three leading Nats beat writers wrote similar articles.\u00a0 Hmm.\u00a0 Perhaps we’re all onto something.\u00a0 Here’s links to Zuckerman<\/a>, Goessling<\/a> and Kilgore<\/a>‘s similar articles.\u00a0 Something must have happened in camp today…)<\/p>\n

(Coincidentally, i’m also assuming that Rick Ankiel<\/strong> is a backup\/fall back plan and nothing more.\u00a0 He’s had exactly ONE impressive hitting season and was worse than Nyjer Morgan<\/strong> last year splitting time between the Royals, the Braves and the DL.\u00a0 But it is concievable that Ankiel is “competing” for the LF job as well).<\/p>\n

Mike Morse<\/strong> turned out to be one of the bright storylines for the team at the plate last year, posting a very respectable 2010 slash line<\/a> of .289\/.352\/.519 and hitting 15 homers in just 293 at bats for a season OPS+ of 133 (3rd on the team behind Dunn <\/strong>and Zimmerman<\/strong>, just ahead of Willingham).\u00a0\u00a0 He’s a former infielder who moves around well despite being a big guy and can play four positions relatively easily (both corner infield and both corner outfield positions).<\/p>\n

Roger Bernadina<\/strong> meanwhile posted this 2010 slash line<\/a>: .246\/.307\/.384 in 461 plate appearances.\u00a0 He had 11 homers and provided very good outfield defense with capabilities at all three positions.<\/p>\n

So, given that the Nats traded away two of their best four hitters last year and clearly seem set to take a small step backwards in offensive production, why exactly is the presumed starter in left field not automatically going to be Morse?<\/p>\n

The arguments i’ve heard are variations of three themes: lefty-righty splits at the plate, defense and balance of our lefty-righty hitters on the bench.\u00a0 Lets discuss each item. <\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Lefty-Righty Splits<\/strong>: the knock on Morse is that he cannot hit right handed pitchers.\u00a0 He mashes lefties but struggles against righties.\u00a0 Is this true?\u00a0 According to his 2010 splits<\/a>, he clearly hits lefties better (he hit .295 versus .287 against right handers) but more significantly his slugging percentage split is significantly different (.466 versus .625 against lefties).\u00a0 So clearly he doesn’t hit for as much power against right handers.<\/p>\n

The thing is, his performance as a righty versus other righties is still pretty good as compared to the league.\u00a0 His “sOPS+” values (sOPS+ being his Split league adjusted OPS value) was 126, meaning that he’s about 26% better than the league average for righty-righty matchups.<\/p>\n

So, lets quickly look at Bernadina’s splits<\/a>.\u00a0 Turns out, Bernadina actually hits lefties BETTER than righties, but his best slugging figure (.429 against lefties) is worse than Morse’s weakest slugging figure.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong>: Morse may be slightly weaker against righties, but he’s better against either arm than Bernadina.\u00a0 He is closer to a #5 hitter in terms of power while Bernadina is a #2\/#7 hitter.<\/p>\n

2. Defense<\/strong>: Bernadina is clearly a better outfielder, and has a fantastic career UZR\/150 rating in left.\u00a0 He posted a 13.3 for 2010<\/a> and has a career 11.8.\u00a0 Meanwhile Morse isn’t exactly Reggie Jackson patrolling left field but he’s not bad either.\u00a0 In very limited LF career stats<\/a> he has a 15.2 uzr\/150 rating in left.\u00a0 He’s significantly worse in Right … but then again that’s why we bought 7 years of Jayson Werth<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Morse is also a very good first baseman and has logged time at SS and 3B.\u00a0 Bernadina is purely an outfielder but can play center in a pinch.<\/p>\n

But here’s the thing; you don’t NEED a star quality defender in left field!\u00a0 Not at the expense of greatly needed offense anyway.\u00a0 That’s why Josh Willingham <\/strong>still has a job and that’s why Manny Ramirez<\/strong> was able to play in Boston (and in the NL) for so long.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong>: Bernadina’s better in left, but both bring defensive flexibilty to the table.<\/p>\n

3. Lefty-Right balance in the lineup<\/strong>.\u00a0 Morse is a righty, Bernadina a lefty.\u00a0 Lets look at the probable 25-man roster out-field players.<\/p>\n