{"id":7329,"date":"2013-08-01T10:36:36","date_gmt":"2013-08-01T14:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7329"},"modified":"2013-08-02T08:27:36","modified_gmt":"2013-08-02T12:27:36","slug":"august-2013-monthly-review-of-nats-rotation-by-opponent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7329","title":{"rendered":"July 2013 Monthly Review of Nats Rotation by Opponent"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1499\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/ZimmermannJordandcist.comAP-PhotoManuel-Balce-Ceneta.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1499\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1499\" alt=\"Zimmermann really struggled in July. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta\/AP\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/ZimmermannJordandcist.comAP-PhotoManuel-Balce-Ceneta-150x150.jpg\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1499\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Zimmermann really struggled in July. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta\/AP<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[<strong>Editor&#8217;s note<\/strong>: duh, I published this with the wrong title; just fixed 8\/2\/13]<\/p>\n<p>Continuing a monthly series of look-backs at our starters (here\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"Apr: http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=6605\">Apr 2013<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=6503\">May 2013<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com.\/?p=7115\">June 2013<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7157\">July2013<\/a>\u00a0posts), here\u2019s a monthly glance at how our rotation is doing from a Starting Pitching standpoint. As with previous posts, we\u2019ll have \u201cGrades\u201d per outing, the team\u2019s performance per opposing starter sliced and diced a few ways, and other per-starter stuff that I like to track.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MLB Rotation Per-Start Grades<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">(click here for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/teams\/WSN\/2013.shtml\">Nats overall season stats<\/a>)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strasburg: A,C,F,B,A+,D<\/li>\n<li>Gonzalez: C+,A,A+,B,F-<\/li>\n<li>Zimmermann: C-,C,B,F-,D<\/li>\n<li>Haren: C-,A+,D,A<\/li>\n<li>Jordan: B-,C-,B,C+,A<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Ohlendorf: B long relief,A spot start<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Detwiler: B- -&gt; D\/L<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Quick Summary: \u00a0A month where we had a handful of really shocking blow-up starts. \u00a0<strong>Gonzalez<\/strong>&#8216;s 11 run debacle \u00a0yesterday, <strong>Strasburg<\/strong>&#8216;s 2 inning\/7 run meltdown being the most shocking examples. \u00a0Only rookie <strong>Taylor Jordan<\/strong> kept an even keel, never pitching that badly and only really pitching excellently in his last start (also, not coincidentally his first win). \u00a0I will say it is good to see\u00a0<strong>Dan Haren<\/strong>\u00a0putting in some good-to-great starts; that may really help. \u00a0<strong>Ross Ohlendorf<\/strong>&#8216;s injury yesterday better not be serious; Jordan&#8217;s innings limit is fast, fast approaching.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Rotation Order Number<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A look at the opposing team\u2019s rotation ranked 1-5 in the order they\u2019re appearing from opening day. \u00a0This table changes at the all-star break and honestly must be taken with a grain of salt, since guys like\u00a0<strong>Clayton Kershaw<\/strong> are now the &#8220;#3 starter&#8221; because their turns were skipped coming out of the all-star game.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Gallardo, Burnett<\/td>\n<td>Hamels, Nolaso, Sanchez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Lee, Slowey<\/td>\n<td>Peralta, Greinke, Verlander<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>1-4<\/td>\n<td>Harvey<\/td>\n<td>Lohse, Kendrick, Kershaw, Liriano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<td>Marquis, Gee<\/td>\n<td>Cole<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Hand, Torres<\/td>\n<td>Lannan, Fernandez, Morton<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5+<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<td>Cashner, Erlin<\/td>\n<td>Eovaldi, Mejia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Quick thoughts: given the aforementioned caveat of having <strong>Justin Verlander<\/strong> listed as a #2 and\u00a0Kershaw listed as a #3, the team more or less performed as you&#8217;d expect. \u00a0A 1-4 record against opposing teams&#8217; #3 starters is really skewed by the likes of <strong>Harvey<\/strong>, <strong>Lohse<\/strong>, Kershaw and <strong>Liriano<\/strong> in that grouping, all four guys being their team&#8217;s current aces. \u00a0This table is becoming less and less meaningful as rotations get scattered as the season goes along.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Actual Performance Rank Intra-Rotation<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>A ranking of opposing teams\u2019 rotations by pure performance at the time of the series, using ERA+ heavily.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>3-4<\/td>\n<td>Lee, Harvey, Cashner<\/td>\n<td>Sanchez, Lohse, Kershaw, Fernandez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<td>Hand<\/td>\n<td>Kendrik, Liriano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>4-2<\/td>\n<td>Gallardo, Burnett, Marquis, Gee<\/td>\n<td>Greinke, Eovaldi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>1-4<\/td>\n<td>Erlin<\/td>\n<td>Nolasco, Peralta, Verlander, Morton<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<td>Slowey, Torrez<\/td>\n<td>Hamels, Cole<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5+<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Lannan, Mejia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Quick Thoughts: the Nats actually held their own very well against other teams&#8217; best performing guys. \u00a0They hung losses on\u00a0<strong>Matt Harvey<\/strong> somehow, and hung a loss on\u00a0<strong>Cliff Lee<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong> \u00a0Less impressive was the collapse against AAA-callup\u00a0<strong>Jenrry Mejia<\/strong> or the no-show against former teammmate\u00a0<strong>John Lannan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher League-wide \u201cRank\u201d<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nA team-independent assignment of a league-wide \u201crank\u201d of what the starter is. Is he an \u201cAce?\u201d Is he a #2?<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"20\">Starter #<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">Record<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Opposing Starter in Wins<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Opposing Starter in Losses<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">1<\/td>\n<td>2-4<\/td>\n<td>Harvey, Lee<\/td>\n<td>Kershaw, Grienke, Verlander, Hamels<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">2<\/td>\n<td>0-3<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Sanchez, Liriano, Fernandez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">3<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<td>Gallardo, Burnett<\/td>\n<td>Lohse, Nolasco, Cole<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">4<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Kendrick<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5<\/td>\n<td>6-4<\/td>\n<td>Cashner, Hand, Marquis, Gee, Erlin, Slowey<\/td>\n<td>Eovaldi, Peralta, Morton, Lannan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">5+<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<td>Torres<\/td>\n<td>Mejia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Quick thoughts: despite a supposedly &#8220;weak&#8221; schedule the team faced a lot of big-time names in July. \u00a0Six of the 27 games went against league-wide Aces, a tall order for any team. \u00a0They also got whitewashed by the near-Aces\/#2 starters, losing all three games against these types. \u00a0More disappointing? \u00a0Only a 6-4 record against league-wide #5 pitchers, the kind of guys that are nearly interchangeable with AAA players. \u00a0Maybe\u00a0<strong>John Lannan<\/strong> isn&#8217;t really a #5 starter (probably not; he&#8217;s probably more of a #4), but the rest of these guys?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Records by Pitching Advantage<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Start-by-start advantages in my own opinion and then looking at the results.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"95\" height=\"60\">Wash<\/td>\n<td width=\"53\">4-6<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Zim-Gallardo, Gio-Cashner, Zim-Marquis, Stras-Erlin<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Det-Lohse, Stras-Nolasco, Zim-Kendrick, Stras-Eovaldi, Stras-Peralta, Zim-Mejia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"40\">Even<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Gio-Burnett, Jordan-Hand, Jordan-Torres<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Gio-Verlander, Stras-Sanchez, Stras-Liriano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"60\">Opp<\/td>\n<td>4-8<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">Jordan-Slowey, Ohlendorf-Harvey, Haren-Gee, Gio-Lee<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Zimm-Kershaw, Gio-Greinke, Haren-Fernandez, Jordan-Hamels, Haren-Lannan, Jordan-Cole, Haren-Morton<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>A sign of how our season has gone: \u00a0I gave opponents the clear advantage in 12 of our 27 games this month. \u00a0 \u00a0Compare this to April, when I only gave our opponents the advantage in TWO of our first 27 games. \u00a0We&#8217;re to the point where Haren and Jordan are automatically underdogs nearly every time they take the mound, and we face enough power arms where our big three may not always be favored to win either.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Matchup analysis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Looking at the opposing starter rank that our guys are going up against to see how their competition fares.<\/p>\n<table width=\"697\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"95\" \/>\n<col width=\"53\" \/>\n<col width=\"307\" \/>\n<col width=\"242\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"148\" height=\"20\">Nats Starters Opponents<\/td>\n<td width=\"307\">matchup analysis<\/td>\n<td width=\"242\">Nats Record under starter<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Strasburg<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Two #2s, a #3 and three #5s<\/td>\n<td>1-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Gonzalez<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>Three Aces, a #3 and a #5<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Zimmermann<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>An Ace, a #3, a #4 and two #5s<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Haren<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>one #2, three #5s<\/td>\n<td>1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Detwiler<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>one #3<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Jordan<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>An Ace, a #3 and three #5s<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">Ohlendorf<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>An Ace in Harvey<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Instead of classifying by rotation order in this table, this is by &#8220;league wide rank.&#8221; \u00a0And we see some very interesting information.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"line-height: 13px;\">The team was only 1-5 in Strasburg&#8217;s 6 starts this month, and he wasn&#8217;t exactly going against an all-star collection of opposing starters. \u00a0That&#8217;s a big-time area of concern. \u00a0It all comes down to run support.<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Gio meanwhile had to face up with three of the best 20 pitchers in the league and still managed to have a winning record during his starts.<\/li>\n<li>Zimmermann, as we see in his grades, tailed off badly this month.<\/li>\n<li>Haren, despite facing off mostly against other #5 quality guys, still conspired to lose 3 of his four starts.<\/li>\n<li>Jordan, as we all know, has really surprised everyone and has been helping the team win.<\/li>\n<li>Ohlendorf faced off against one of (if not the) major&#8217;s best hurlers and the team got a win in his spot start.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Editor&#8217;s note: duh, I published this with the wrong title; just fixed 8\/2\/13] Continuing a monthly series of look-backs at our starters (here\u2019s\u00a0Apr 2013,\u00a0May 2013,\u00a0June 2013, July2013\u00a0posts), here\u2019s a monthly glance at how our rotation is doing from a Starting Pitching standpoint. As with previous posts, we\u2019ll have \u201cGrades\u201d per outing, the team\u2019s performance per [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[426,246,983,1910,385,1911,39,43,44,231,1666,51,1554,38,24],"class_list":["post-7329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-natsrotationreview","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-cliff-lee","tag-dan-haren","tag-francisco-liriano","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-jenrry-mejia","tag-john-lannan","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-justin-verlander","tag-kyle-lohse","tag-matt-harvey","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ross-ohlendorf","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-taylor-jordan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7329"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7353,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7329\/revisions\/7353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}