{"id":7808,"date":"2013-11-19T07:35:29","date_gmt":"2013-11-19T12:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7808"},"modified":"2014-12-18T09:25:05","modified_gmt":"2014-12-18T14:25:05","slug":"predicting-the-2013-end-of-season-awards-howd-we-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7808","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the 2013 End-of-Season Awards: how\u2019d we do?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_5032\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/CabreraMiguel-AP-Photo-via-aol.sportingsnews.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5032\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-5032\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/CabreraMiguel-AP-Photo-via-aol.sportingsnews.com_-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Cabrera keeps the BBWAA in the news for the 2nd year in a row.  Photo AP via sportingnews.com\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-5032\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cabrera keeps the BBWAA prominently in the news for the 2nd year in a row. Photo AP via sportingnews.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Predictions versus Results review. \u00a0Did we go 8-for-8 in the BBWAA awards? \u00a0How about 12-for-12 including the Sporting News awards? \u00a0A tough task \u00a0(the Sporting News awards are notoriously squirrely).<\/p>\n<p>Here was my\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7808\">2013 Prediction post<\/a> from Early October. \u00a0For some past history, here&#8217;s the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=5004\">2012 version<\/a>\u00a0of this post, and here&#8217;s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=192\">2010<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3052\">2011<\/a>\u00a0prediction pieces as well in case you forgot who won the 2010 AL MVP (<strong>Josh Hamilton<\/strong> in a landslide; oh how far he has fallen).<\/p>\n<p>Lets review my predictions versus the results.<\/p>\n<p>American League:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AL MVP: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Miguel Cabrera. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/14\/mvp-award-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen\/\">Actual<\/a>: Cabrera.<\/li>\n<li>AL Cy Young: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/tigers-ace-scherzer-easily-wins-233206036--mlb.html\">Actual<\/a>: Scherzer.<\/li>\n<li>AL Rookie of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Wil Myers. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/11\/rookie-of-the-year-jose-fernandez-wil-myers\/\">Actual<\/a>: Myers.<\/li>\n<li>AL Mgr: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Terry Francona. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/12\/terry-francona-clint-hurdle-al-nl-manager-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Francona.<\/li>\n<li>AL GM: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Billy Beane<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2013\/11\/11\/red-sox-gm-ben-cherington-voted-sporting-news-executive-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: <b>Ben Cherington<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li>AL Comeback Player of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Scott Kazmir<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pirates.scout.com\/2\/1343305.html\">Actual<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>Mariano Rivera<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>National League:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NL MVP: Predicted:\u00a0<strong>Andrew McCutchen. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/14\/mvp-award-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen\/\">Actual<\/a>: McCutchen.<\/li>\n<li>NL Cy Young: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Clayton Kershaw. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/tigers-ace-scherzer-easily-wins-233206036--mlb.html\">Actual<\/a>: Kershaw.<\/li>\n<li>NL Rookie of the Year: Predicted\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Jose Fernandez. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/11\/rookie-of-the-year-jose-fernandez-wil-myers\/\">Actual<\/a>: Fernandez.<\/li>\n<li>NL Mgr: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Clint Hurdle<\/strong>, Pittsburgh. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/12\/terry-francona-clint-hurdle-al-nl-manager-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Hurdle.<\/li>\n<li>NL GM: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Neal Huntington<\/strong>, Pittsburgh. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2013\/11\/11\/red-sox-gm-ben-cherington-voted-sporting-news-executive-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Huntington (2nd overall; best NL executive)<\/li>\n<li>NL Comeback Player of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Francisco Liriano<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pirates.scout.com\/2\/1343305.html\">Actual<\/a>: Liriano.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Discussion:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AL MVP: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Miguel Cabrera. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/14\/mvp-award-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen\/\">Actual<\/a>: Cabrera. \u00a0Another year, another set of whiny posts from the ever-obstinate stat crowd about the AL MVP. \u00a0Cabrera gets first place on <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-al-mvp\/\">23\/30 ballots<\/a> and cruises to victory. \u00a0 I&#8217;ll say this: if you want a &#8220;best player&#8221; award that&#8217;s just driven by the WAR standings, then convince the BBWAA to create one. \u00a0A batting version of the Cy Young Award. \u00a0Oh but first you have to explain why the three WARs (Fangraphs, baseball-reference and Baseball Prospectus) don&#8217;t actually agree with each other, or why they vary so much, use different input parameters, change over time, and depend on defensive statistics that basically depend on estimates and admit they cannot measure every aspect of the game. \u00a0 Until then, you have to deal with the vague definition of &#8220;valuable&#8221; and explain how someone can be the &#8220;most valuable player&#8221; on a team that finished last in its division. \u00a0 In the mean-time, check out the voting; someone <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-al-mvp\/\">voted Trout SEVENTH<\/a> in this race; i&#8217;m sure there&#8217;s going to be plenty of whiny posts in the baseball blogosphere about this reporter (yup, there were).<\/li>\n<li>AL Cy Young: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/tigers-ace-scherzer-easily-wins-233206036--mlb.html\">Actual<\/a>: Scherzer. \u00a0Scherzer won overwhelmingly, getting <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-al-cy\/\">28 of 30 first place votes<\/a>. \u00a0What&#8217;s more amazing is seeing who else got first place votes. \u00a0<strong>Anibal Sanchez<\/strong>? \u00a0 Wow. \u00a0Who looked at the Detroit rotation and made the determination that Sanchez was the guy who led the line and not one of his teammates?<\/li>\n<li>AL Rookie of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Wil Myers. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/11\/rookie-of-the-year-jose-fernandez-wil-myers\/\">Actual<\/a>: Myers. \u00a0 Tampa&#8217;s Wil Myers won in more or less a landslide, getting <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-al-roy\/\">23 of 30 first place votes<\/a>. \u00a0It was a down year in the AL for rookies but Myers continues to show why the\u00a0Tampa-Kansas City trade will haunt Royals fans for years to come.<\/li>\n<li>AL Mgr: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Terry Francona. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/12\/terry-francona-clint-hurdle-al-nl-manager-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Francona.\u00a0 I think the right guy won here; if you look at what Cleveland did this year with the squad they had, the accomplishment of Francona becomes even more distinct.\u00a0 The vote was closer than I thought it would be (he took <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-al-mgr\/\">16 of 30 1st place votes<\/a>) over <strong>John Ferrell<\/strong> of Boston. \u00a0<strong>Bob Melvin<\/strong> gets some very deserved votes as well. \u00a0I was worried that this award would go to the Red Sox guy after their worst to first season (much like I believe the GM award was seemingly selected).<\/li>\n<li>AL GM: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Billy Beane<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2013\/11\/11\/red-sox-gm-ben-cherington-voted-sporting-news-executive-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>:\u00a0<b>Ben Cherington<\/b>. \u00a0I completely disagree with this selection, but am somewhat irked with myself for being &#8220;talked out&#8221; of selecting Cherington by a column I read earlier this year about Beane. \u00a0Yes Cherington did an amazing job moving his malcontents and signing the players that enabled the Red Sox to win another World Series. \u00a0But honestly; how can you be the executive of the year with the 2nd or 3rd highest payroll in the game?? \u00a0If Boston makes a $15M\/year mistake in free agency &#8230; they just get another guy. \u00a0If a team like Tampa or Pittsburgh or Oakland makes a $15M\/year mistake, it cripples them for years to come. \u00a0That&#8217;s why I feel a GM from a small market team that makes the playoffs is absolutely more deserving of this award over a major market GM, every time.<\/li>\n<li>AL Comeback Player of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Scott Kazmir<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pirates.scout.com\/2\/1343305.html\">Actual<\/a>:\u00a0<strong>Mariano Rivera<\/strong>. \u00a0 I have no problems with this award; in fact i&#8217;m kind of mad at myself for not thinking about Rivera. \u00a0Everything about his career is amazing, and the last year, where he pitched at all-star levels after missing an entire season and being at such an advanced age just cements his legacy even more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>National League<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NL MVP: Predicted:\u00a0<strong>Andrew McCutchen. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/14\/mvp-award-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen\/\">Actual<\/a>: McCutchen. \u00a0 This one ended up being pretty easy to predict, an entirely narrative driven vote. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8128\">See my post<\/a> on <strong>Carlos Gomez<\/strong> for why I say that.\u00a0McCutchen got <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-nl-mvp\/\">28 of 30 first place votes<\/a>, only missing out on the two St. Louis voters supporting\u00a0<strong>Yadier Molina<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>NL Cy Young: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Clayton Kershaw. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/tigers-ace-scherzer-easily-wins-233206036--mlb.html\">Actual<\/a>: Kershaw. \u00a0First place on <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-nl-cy\/\">29 of 30 ballots<\/a>, which i&#8217;m sure will touch off faux-anger articles the next day about why he wasn&#8217;t unanimous. \u00a0Our own\u00a0<strong>Jordan Zimmermann<\/strong> got a slew of 3rd and 4th place votes (but ironically none from the local Washington writers who voted) and finished 7th overall.<\/li>\n<li>NL Rookie of the Year: Predicted\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Jose Fernandez. \u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/11\/rookie-of-the-year-jose-fernandez-wil-myers\/\">Actual<\/a>: Fernandez. \u00a0In a race that looked like it would be too difficult to call earlier in the season, Fernandez ended up dominating (taking <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-nl-roy\/\">26 of 30 first place votes<\/a>). \u00a0He wins over\u00a0<strong>Yasiel Puig<\/strong> and a slew of excellent candidates. \u00a0Ironic how\u00a0<strong>Shelby Miller<\/strong> finishes third but his fellow rookie teammate\u00a0<strong>Michael Wacha<\/strong> was the post-season hero (and may be the more coveted player, since Miller&#8217;s name is already in trade rumors).<\/li>\n<li>NL Mgr: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Clint Hurdle<\/strong>, Pittsburgh. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.si.com\/2013\/11\/12\/terry-francona-clint-hurdle-al-nl-manager-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Hurdle.\u00a0 This was perhaps the easiest award to predict after the NL Cy Young; Hurdle took first place on <a href=\"http:\/\/bbwaa.com\/13-nl-mgr\/\">25 of 30 ballots<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>NL GM: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Neal Huntington<\/strong>, Pittsburgh. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2013\/11\/11\/red-sox-gm-ben-cherington-voted-sporting-news-executive-of-the-year\/\">Actual<\/a>: Huntington (2nd overall; best NL executive). \u00a0Huntington&#8217;s slew of moves on the trade and free agency markets over the last couple of years, combined with the team (finally?) showing some dividends from its drafting and farm system had them in the playoffs despite one of the lowest payrolls in the league. \u00a0Huntington is an easy choice for best NL executive.<\/li>\n<li>NL Comeback Player of the Year: Predicted\u00a0<strong>Francisco Liriano<\/strong>. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pirates.scout.com\/2\/1343305.html\">Actual<\/a>: Liriano. \u00a0No surprise here: Liriano went from being fantasy waiver wire chaff to one of the best pitchers in the league this year. \u00a0How much longer can he keep this level of performance going from here?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I took out my two predicted &#8220;Firemen&#8221; of the year because, well, I have no idea if or when they&#8217;ll be announced. \u00a0The Rolaids relief man of the year award may be kaput;\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rolaidsreliefman.com\/\">the website is down<\/a>, they apparently havn&#8217;t announced it for 2013 despite every other post-season award having already been given out, and I wanted to post this sucker.<\/p>\n<p>So\u00a0in the end, I went 8\/8 in major awards, 10\/12 in all awards. \u00a0Not bad. \u00a0Of course, as one prominent writer\u00a0pointed out, predicting the 8 main BBWAA awards this year wasn&#8217;t the hardest task in the world. \u00a0 So I won&#8217;t crow too much at my own predictive capabilities this year \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predictions versus Results review. \u00a0Did we go 8-for-8 in the BBWAA awards? \u00a0How about 12-for-12 including the Sporting News awards? \u00a0A tough task \u00a0(the Sporting News awards are notoriously squirrely). Here was my\u00a02013 Prediction post from Early October. \u00a0For some past history, here&#8217;s the\u00a02012 version\u00a0of this post, and here&#8217;s\u00a02010\u00a0and\u00a02011\u00a0prediction pieces as well in case you [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2667,6],"tags":[424,777,2102,212,1175,1924,426,430,1910,2101,43,1886,171,1037,1953,405,456,2105,477,1333,2110,1303,1923,1869],"class_list":["post-7808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-awards","category-nonnatsbaseball","tag-andrew-mccutchen","tag-anibal-sanchez","tag-ben-cherington","tag-billy-beane","tag-bob-melvin","tag-carlos-gomez","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-clint-hurdle","tag-francisco-liriano","tag-john-ferrell","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-jose-fernandez","tag-mariano-rivera","tag-max-scherzer","tag-michael-wacha","tag-miguel-cabrera","tag-mike-trout","tag-neal-huntington","tag-scott-kazmir","tag-shelby-miller","tag-terry-francona","tag-wil-myers","tag-yadier-molina","tag-yasiel-puig"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7808"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10120,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7808\/revisions\/10120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}