{"id":8009,"date":"2013-10-25T15:06:59","date_gmt":"2013-10-25T19:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8009"},"modified":"2013-10-25T15:07:07","modified_gmt":"2013-10-25T19:07:07","slug":"lincecums-deal-seems-like-a-massive-overpay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8009","title":{"rendered":"Lincecum’s deal seems like a massive overpay"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Lincecum<\/a>

Lincecum cashes in for 2 more years. Photo via SD Dirk flickr via wikipedia<\/p><\/div>\n

One of the more intriguing FA situations for the coming off-season was resolved incredibly early, with\u00a0Tim Lincecum<\/strong> signing 2yr\/$35M deal<\/a> to stay with the San Francisco Giants for two more years. \u00a0Lincecum also gets a full no-trade thrown in.<\/p>\n

$17.5M a year for a guy whose last two seasons looked like this:<\/p>\n

– 2012: 10-15, 5.18 ERA, 1.468 Whip and a 68 ERA+. \u00a0-1.7 bWAR<\/p>\n

– 2013: 10-14, 4.37 ERA, 1.315 Whip and a 76 ERA+. -0.6 bWAR<\/p>\n

His fastball velocity, once a strength, rank him 62nd out of 81 qualified starters in 2013. \u00a0He was averaging 93-94 with a peak of 99 earlier in his career; now he’s averaging 90.2 and peaking 94.3. \u00a0That’s a huge, significant velocity loss that hasn’t been accompanied by any D\/L stint or time off. \u00a0 He’s 29, he’s got incredibly weird (lets call them “unique” to be nice) mechanics and he’s coming off of two seasons where he’s pitched like a 4-A pitcher, well below replacement value. \u00a0I’m sorry, but why would anyone believe at this point that he’s got any shot of returning to his Cy Young glory?<\/p>\n

Now, you can argue that his more advanced numbers (Fip, xFIP, Siera<\/a>) aren’t as damning as the traditional numbers I posted above (this is exactly what Dave Cameron<\/strong> does in one of the reaction links located at the bottom of this post).\u00a0\u00a0 And you’d be right to a certain extent. \u00a0 By xFIP for 2013 he’s ranked 29th of 81 qualified starters. \u00a0 By FIP he’d be ranked 45th, and by SIERA 35th. \u00a0 None of those are elite placements for the year. \u00a0It still don’t make Lincecum a $17.5M\/year arm. \u00a0And, that’s putting an awful lot of faith in the xFIP, if that’s your argument. \u00a0Because we’ve seen plenty of pitchers whose xFIPs always trail their FIPs (and Lincecum pitches in SF, where homers go to die). \u00a0And we’ve seen pitchers whose FIP is improved because they get more K’s than ground ball outs (and Lincecum is still a high strikeout pitcher, so his FIP will always look better). \u00a0 And one final rebuttal; xFIP is an estimator of future performace, not a guaranteer of it. \u00a0Look at Lincecum’s career and his xFIP-next year’s ERA link is all over the place. \u00a0To blindly look at his 2013 xFIP and predict that he’s returning to form is, well, foolish. \u00a0And none of these arguments apologizes for his negative WAR values the last two years; hey Sabre-nerds; you can’t pick and choose stats to approve this and leave out your favorite one.<\/p>\n

I wouldn’t have given him half the guaranteed money the Giants just did. \u00a0I wouldn’t have even given him a Q.O., because its hard for me to believe someone out there would have given him even $14M guaranteed for 2014.<\/p>\n

Here’s another stat line to consider:<\/p>\n

– 2013: 10-14, 4.67 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 81 ERA+, -0.1 bWAR.<\/p>\n

Comparing this stat line straight up with Lincecum’s 2013, you’d clearly think this pitcher would be more in line to get paid than Lincecum, right? \u00a0This stat line belongs to none other than\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong>. \u00a0Who thinks Haren is scoring a 2 year\/$35M deal this off-season? \u00a0Who here thinks Haren even gets a 1 year\/$8M deal? \u00a0Certainly Haren’s not going to get a Qualifying Offer out of the Nats this fall.<\/p>\n

Other opinions on the deal: Hardballtalk advised not to “freak out”<\/a> about the contract, that there’s so much money in the game and blah-blah. \u00a0Sorry, this isn’t about salary escalation (if you wanted to talk about that, lets talk about the\u00a0Hunter Pence<\/strong> deal … a clear example to me of salary escalation for a good but not great player). \u00a0\u00a0Dan Symborski<\/strong> at ESPN hates the deal<\/a>\u00a0with pretty good points about the timing, the lack of a Q.O., the lack of a market for him, etc. \u00a0Keith Law points out that the contract seems like a “thanks for the memories<\/a>” contract, not one that will actually help the Giants win. \u00a0Gwen Knapp<\/strong> on SportsonEarth points out the sentimentality of the deal<\/a>. \u00a0Dave Cameron<\/strong> points out that Lincecum’s xFIP makes him actaully more valuable<\/a> than his traditional numbers appear. \u00a0Maybe we’re the dumb ones and the Giants are the smart ones. \u00a0Rob Neyer<\/strong>\u00a0tries really hard not to be harsh<\/a> about the contract. \u00a0And lastly unabashed SF homer\u00a0Grant Brisbee<\/strong> chimes in<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Giants GM\u00a0Brian Sabean<\/strong>\u00a0has long had a bad rap in the blogosphere as being one of the poorest GMs in the game. \u00a0And then his team went and won the World Series two years out of three. \u00a0But moves like this bring back questioning of his competence. \u00a0Unless he throws his owner under the bus and washes his hands of the deal, if that’s indeed the case.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the more intriguing FA situations for the coming off-season was resolved incredibly early, with\u00a0Tim Lincecum signing 2yr\/$35M deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants for two more years. \u00a0Lincecum also gets a full no-trade thrown in. $17.5M a year for a guy whose last two seasons looked like this: – 2012: 10-15, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[631,983,2076,449,1563,2077,786,364,316],"class_list":["post-8009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","tag-brian-sabean","tag-dan-haren","tag-dan-symborski","tag-dave-cameron","tag-grant-brisbee","tag-gwen-knapp","tag-hunter-pence","tag-rob-neyer","tag-tim-lincecum"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8009"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8009\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8026,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8009\/revisions\/8026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}