{"id":8092,"date":"2013-11-07T07:15:58","date_gmt":"2013-11-07T12:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8092"},"modified":"2013-11-07T07:15:58","modified_gmt":"2013-11-07T12:15:58","slug":"ladsons-inbox-11513-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8092","title":{"rendered":"Ladson’s Inbox 11\/5\/13 edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Can<\/a>

Can Roark win a 2014 rotation job? Photo Alex Brandon\/AP via wp.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Well, we finally got a manager, so hopefully MLB.com Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson\u00a0<\/strong>will stop taking “Who do you think the next Nats Manager” questions. \u00a0I’m not ruling it out though \ud83d\ude42 \u00a0Nonetheless, here’s the latest\u00a0Ladson inbox, dated 11\/5\/13<\/a>. \u00a0As always, I write my response before reading his and edit questions for clarity.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Will Davey Johnson still play a role in the organization?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Who cares? \u00a0Does it matter? \u00a0Whatever role\u00a0Davey Johnson<\/strong> could play would have so little significance on the on-field play of the 2014 team that I find it useless to even speculate. \u00a0I’m sure the Nats offered him a limited role out of respect, and I’d assume Johnson accepted it as long as it allowed him to go relax in Florida for a while, hoping another managerial job opens up. \u00a0Ladson expects he’ll consult to the team and advise on trades and FA signings because he’s such a great “talent evaluator.” \u00a0Hey Bill; if Johnson was such a great talent evaluator why exactly did he run\u00a0Danny Espinosa<\/strong> out for so many at-bats? \u00a0Why didn’t he push to make a change in the rotation when it was clear that\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong>\u00a0wasn’t pitching at even a replacement-level? \u00a0How come he didn’t see the rising talent that made such a difference in September?<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0After\u00a0Stephen Strasburg<\/a>,\u00a0Gio Gonzalez<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Jordan Zimmermann<\/a>, how do you see the rest of the rotation shaking out?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: A good question. \u00a0After going into the 2013 season with almost no high-minors starting pitching depth, you have to think the team is going to cover themselves for 2014. \u00a0So count on there being more seemingly worthy candidates than roles going into spring training 2014. \u00a0The answer to this question may depend on payroll issues: right now Cots has the Nats with about $80M committed<\/a> for 2014 prior to its arbitration cases, which MLBtraderumor’s\u00a0Matt Swartz<\/strong> is estimating will run the team another $37.3M<\/a>\u00a0(which honestly I think is slightly low).\u00a0 That’s roughly $117M in payroll before even looking at a single FA candidate. \u00a0 You could save some of this money with non-tenders or trades (Tyler Clippard<\/strong>\u00a0at $6.2M is a candidate to be moved), but not enough to get an impact player.<\/p>\n

Will the ownership group expand the payroll even more for 2014, knowing their “window” with this group of players is shrinking? \u00a0Or will they stay the course and know that nearly $30M of mostly underperforming veteran FAs (LaRoche<\/strong>,\u00a0Span<\/strong>,\u00a0Soriano<\/strong>)\u00a0come off the books after next season, allowing them to reload in the FA market towards 2015 and beyond?<\/p>\n

If ownership frees up some cash, by trade\/non-tender or by expansion of the payroll limit, there are FA pitchers to be had. \u00a0I’ve seen more than one pundit<\/a> with the Nats linked to\u00a0Matt Garza<\/strong>, but I don’t see it; I don’t think he’s worth what people seem to think he’s going to get (4 yrs\/$60M). \u00a0More likely is the team going with a modification of the\u00a0Edwin Jackson\/Dan Haren<\/strong> plan and getting a reclamation project in the ilk of\u00a0Josh Johnson<\/strong> on a one-year\/low paying contract with big incentives.<\/p>\n

Less predictable is the trade acquisition. \u00a0Nobody saw the\u00a0Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> trade coming until it happened, and something similar could happen now. \u00a0The team is in the same position generally this off-season as it was in 2011 in terms of having a slight surplus of closer-to-the-majors arms and bats and could put together a similar package. \u00a0If we moved\u00a0Brad Peacock<\/strong>,\u00a0Tommy Milone<\/strong>,\u00a0Derek Norris<\/strong> and A.J. Cole<\/b> for Gonzalez in 2011 (or in otherwords, a good-looking starter with great initial call-up numbers, a solid lefty starter who dominated AAA, a decent looking catcher prospect and a high-leverage low-minors prospect) would a similar package of something like\u00a0Tanner Roark<\/strong>,\u00a0Nathan Karns, Eury Perez<\/strong> and\u00a0Robbie Ray<\/strong> fetch a #2 starter in the trade market? \u00a0 Oakland isn’t facing the same issue they were in 2011 with any of its pitchers, so the most likely eager-to-make-a-trade GM\u00a0in\u00a0Billy Beane<\/strong> is out. \u00a0But that being said, they’re paying Brett Anderson<\/strong> a LOT of money for Oakland’s payroll (roughly 1\/6th of their payroll for next year), and he could be moved. \u00a0Anderson wouldn’t cost nearly this much in prospects, but would be a huge risk; he hasn’t pitched a full season in years.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile everyone knows Tampa is looking to move\u00a0David Price,<\/strong> but any trade for him has to start with your two best prospects and build from there, and the Nats are just back to the point where the farm system is looking respectable again. \u00a0I’m not sure the Nats are going to be willing to give up what the Rays will demand. \u00a0The Nats have done business lately with the Chicago Cubs, who may look to move the arbitration-eligible\u00a0Jeff Samardzija<\/strong>, but they’d be selling incredibly low on him after his poor 2013. \u00a0Lastly the Tigers reportedly are considering moving\u00a0Max Scherzer,\u00a0<\/strong>who enters his last year of arbitration looking for a big pay day and with\u00a0<\/strong>Ken Rosenthal<\/strong> reporting that the Nats are his best fit<\/a>, but I just cannot see purposely moving a Cy Young winner and disrupting a team that continues to be one of the best in the AL.<\/p>\n

With no FA acquisitions and no trades, I see a competition next spring that likely sees\u00a0Ross Detwiler<\/strong>\u00a0in the 4th spot (no options, theoretically healthy again),\u00a0Tanner Roark<\/strong> in the 5th spot (he keeps his spot until he shows that his remarkable September numbers are human),\u00a0Ross Ohlendorf<\/strong> as the spot starter\/long man in the MLB pen, and\u00a0Taylor Jordan-<\/strong>Nathan Karns\u00a0<\/strong>being the #1 and #2 starters in AAA Syracuse. \u00a0Some speculate that Detwiler would lose out to both Roark and Jordan and become a lefty out of the pen … but I don’t see that. \u00a0I’m not counting it out, but I don’t see that happening if he’s healthy.<\/p>\n

With any significant FA acquisition or trade, you line up Stras-Gio-Zimmermann-New Acquisition and Detwiler to start off 2014, just as you did in 2013. \u00a0 Roark and Ohlendorf likely work out of the MLB pen and Jordan\/Karns still in AAA. \u00a0 Maybe Karns comes up and works the 7th inning as well, while Jordan remains starter insurance plan #1.<\/p>\n

Ladson also mentions Price, also mentions what I do about the difficulties lining up, thinks the Nats will acquire someone for #4 spot and then says Roark has the inside edge on #5 spot, even over Detwiler (who he thinks could move to the bullpen).\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0What did you think about the Nationals hiring Williams as manager last week?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Well, I guess Ladson had to get in one last question about the managerial situation. \u00a0My take: I like the move, I think Matt Williams<\/strong>‘ combination of successful playing career and MLB coaching experience will instantly give him the respect of the veterans and the rookies on this team. \u00a0 He will get this team in line, he will bring some old-school notions to this team and won’t back down in a fight (as Johnson clearly did with Atlanta all year). \u00a0I think he will give this team the spine it lacked and will do nothing but help move the team forward.<\/p>\n

One other opinion; I do see some critics who say that Williams’ lack of direct managerial experience at any level hurts him. \u00a0I say BS; he was a major league coach for four years, working underneath a successful, respected manager. \u00a0He presumably contributed to the decision making process, got to witness first hand how decisions worked out, got to decide for himself how he would have handled situations, and in some ways I think this experience supercedes being a manager of a lower-level ball-club where there’s no egos and just a bunch of kids who you can cower into submission.<\/p>\n

Ladson says its too early to tell, but that Williams had a great news conference. \u00a0Honestly I didn’t really expect much of an answer here from an employee of MLB.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0What is\u00a0Christian Garcia<\/a>‘s status? Will he join the Nationals in 2014? He was a great late addition to the bullpen in 2012.<\/b><\/p>\n

A: He’s finally healthy, and pitching in the Mexican Winter League<\/a>. \u00a0I think the team sees the error of its ways in trying to convert the injury-riddled pitcher to being a starter. \u00a0He’s working as a reliever in winter ball, and I hope to see him continue to work as a reliever in the spring. \u00a0I’d love to see him earn a spot in the bullpen; lord knows the team could use one more reliable arm in the 6th\/7th inning (<\/strong>Ryan Mattheus<\/strong> needs to be on guard; your spot is in jeopardy for 2014). \u00a0Ladson agrees with everything I’ve said<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Do you think the Nationals will trade\u00a0Danny Espinosa<\/a>,\u00a0Tyler Moore<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Steve Lombardozzi<\/a>this winter or sign a couple free agents? I believe they need a lefty middle reliever, a left-handed bat coming off the bench and a veteran backup catcher.<\/b><\/p>\n

A: Trading any of those three guys after the seasons they had at the plate would be selling incredibly low. \u00a0So no, I don’t think any of them get moved unless they’re part of a larger deal. \u00a0Espinosa needs to get healthy, learn how to hit left handed, and build trade value. \u00a0I believe he can be a valuable player for someone, somewhere, just based on his incredible defense. \u00a0But he has to hit better than .150. \u00a0Moore needs to return to his 2012 power ways, but I still see him as a useful player who we have no reason to trade; he still has options, he’s still pre-arbitration and thus he’s cheap. \u00a0Lombardozzi is the quintessential utility guy; he can play 2nd, 3rd, left, right. \u00a0You have to have one of these guys around … and if he can’t hit, it is’t going to kill you. \u00a0But when this player gets 300 ABs (as Lombardozzi got last year) … then you have a problem. \u00a0This is why the team got\u00a0Scott Hairston<\/strong> and why they’re likely to give some looks to\u00a0Zach Walters<\/strong> in 2014. \u00a0 Maybe the team looks for a cheap veteran to replace\u00a0Chad Tracy<\/strong> but i’d hope for a bit more positional flexibility.<\/p>\n

I can also see the team kicking the tires on a veteran lefty but don’t entirely see the need;\u00a0Ian Krol<\/strong> may have faltered down the stretch but he was mostly good. \u00a0Abad<\/strong> was good. \u00a0Cedeno<\/strong> was good. \u00a0We have all these guys locked up. \u00a0You see who wins a competition and switch them out if they’re ineffective.<\/p>\n

Ladson thinks Espinosa is getting traded no matter what, and has played his last game as a National.<\/em><\/p>\n

Q:\u00a0Are Gold Glove Awards given with consideration to the offensive stats of a player? Otherwise, how could\u00a0Denard Span<\/a>\u00a0miss out on the award this year?<\/b><\/p>\n

A: They’re not supposed to be … but we all know old habits die hard and bit players who are awful at the plate often times have a hard time getting a Gold Glove. \u00a0Span as it turned out led all NL centerfielders in one defensive metric (Total Zone Total Fielding Runs), but I have zero problem with the NL winner\u00a0Carlos Gomez<\/strong>. \u00a0Ladson says he was “shocked” that Span didn’t win, and then used “# of errors” as a metric. \u00a0Poor form Ladson; you need to reference some of the advanced stats in question. \u00a0Gomez led the NL in Defensive Runs Saved, one of the two major defensive metrics. \u00a0So your argument fails. \u00a0Span may have great range, but he wasn’t best in the Ultimate Zone Ratings measurement either. \u00a0See the Fielding Awards spreadsheet link to the right to see all the leaders in one place.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well, we finally got a manager, so hopefully MLB.com Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson\u00a0will stop taking “Who do you think the next Nats Manager” questions. \u00a0I’m not ruling it out though \ud83d\ude42 \u00a0Nonetheless, here’s the latest\u00a0Ladson inbox, dated 11\/5\/13. \u00a0As always, I write my response before reading his and edit questions for clarity. Q:\u00a0Will Davey […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[184,17,182,212,35,1924,835,103,983,135,137,223,482,369,52,253,462,1503,385,1695,839,43,776,312,131,2107,1314,1037,196,1398,18,51,1554,86,1881,38,142,77,24,1016,34,128,235,1786,1146],"class_list":["post-8092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chatmailbag-responses","tag-adam-laroche","tag-aj-cole","tag-bill-ladson","tag-billy-beane","tag-brad-peacock","tag-carlos-gomez","tag-chad-tracy","tag-christian-garcia","tag-dan-haren","tag-danny-espinosa","tag-davey-johnson","tag-david-price","tag-denard-span","tag-derek-norris","tag-drew-storen","tag-edwin-jackson","tag-eury-perez","tag-fernando-abad","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-ian-krol","tag-jeff-samardzija","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-josh-johnson","tag-ken-rosenthal","tag-matt-garza","tag-matt-swarz","tag-matt-williams","tag-max-scherzer","tag-nathan-karns","tag-rafael-soriano","tag-robbie-ray","tag-ross-detwiler","tag-ross-ohlendorf","tag-ryan-mattheus","tag-scott-hairston","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-steve-lombardozzi","tag-tanner-roark","tag-taylor-jordan","tag-todd-boss","tag-tommy-milone","tag-tyler-clippard","tag-tyler-moore","tag-xavier-cedeno","tag-zach-walters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8092"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8099,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8092\/revisions\/8099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}