{"id":8138,"date":"2014-01-07T08:48:59","date_gmt":"2014-01-07T13:48:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8138"},"modified":"2015-02-19T15:22:40","modified_gmt":"2015-02-19T20:22:40","slug":"nats-rule-5-draft-history-updated-for-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8138","title":{"rendered":"Nats Rule-5 Draft History; updated for 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_594\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/PHO-09Dec01-191069.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-594\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-594\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/PHO-09Dec01-191069-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Jesus Flores remains our most successful Rule 5 Draftee.  Photo Toni Sandys\/Washington Post\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-594\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jesus Flores remains our most successful Rule 5 Draftee. Photo Toni Sandys\/Washington Post<\/p><\/div>\n<p>(I should have published this in early December but got caught up in a glut of other posts; posting this now in lieu of just trashing it).<\/p>\n<p>The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. \u00a0In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=3111\">November 2011 I did a Rule-5 Draft history<\/a>, and I thought I&#8217;d update it for the last few drafts, now that 2013&#8217;s draft is complete. \u00a0Borrowing a chunk of the text for the previous years from the previous post, here\u2019s a list of the Rule 5 drafts since 2005, with our players taken\/received noted and with some thoughts on how the player turned out for either side. \u00a0Note I\u2019m mostly only doing this analysis for the major league section of the rule 5 draft; there\u2019s just far too little eventual MLB success to be found in the AAA and AA sections of the Rule 5 draft to do the analysis. \u00a0I will note some notables who get snapped up in the minor league section for the later years.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2004_Rule_V_Draft\">2004 Rule 5 Draft<\/a>\u00a0(ahead of the 2005 season)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Tony Blanco:<\/strong>\u00a01B; drafted from Cincinnati. \u00a0He batted .177 as a 1st baseman backup while eating a roster spot all season, then we cut him from AAA after 2007. \u00a0He kicked around Colorado\u2019s system for a year and has been\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/minors\/player.cgi?id=blanco001ton\">playing in Japan<\/a>\u00a0ever since. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tyrell Godwin<\/strong>: CF, drafted from Toronto. \u00a0Prior to the 2005 season, the team traded another minor leaguer to keep his rights, so this really played out less like a Rule-5 pickup in that Godwin didn\u2019t have to stick on the 25-man roster all year. \u00a0He played a grand total of 3 games for the Nats, kicked around AAA for a while an hung them up in 2007. \u00a0<em>Verdict:\u00a0<\/em>failure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2005_Rule_V_Draft\">2005 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Nats did not draft anyone, but had a player taken who went on a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bookech01.shtml#trans\">whirlwind tour of MLB organizations<\/a>\u00a0before getting returned mid 2006.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Chris Booker<\/strong>\u00a0was rule-5 drafted by Detroit, who immediately sold him to Philadelphia, who then waived him in May of 2006 with the intent of returning him \u2026 except that Kansas City picked him up, hung onto him for a couple months and eventually returned him to Washington. \u00a0The Nats eventually called him up but he was relatively ineffective and he washed out of the game (seemingly due to injuries) after 2008.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2006_Rule_V_Draft\">2006 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jesus Flores<\/strong>, C, drafted from the New York Mets, stuck with the team all year despite having only played high-A ball in the minors. \u00a0Despite his eventual injury issues that plagued him for the better part of 3 seasons, Flores remains the best example of a \u201cfound gold\u201d prospect that can be had in the Rule 5 draft. \u00a0 After the Nats DFA&#8217;d him last off-season, he bounced around both LA and Tampa&#8217;s AAA teams in 2013 but did not appear in the majors.\u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: <strong>success<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Levale Speigner<\/strong>\u00a0RHP (a closer) was drafted from Minnesota and, as with Booker above, eventually was traded for by the Nats so they could keep him and stash him in the minors. \u00a0After some awful outings for the big team, he passed through waivers mid 2008 and was released from AAA in 2008, bounced around a couple other organizations, and retired after 2010. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Nats lost one player in this draft:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Alejandro Machada<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted by Minnesota just a month after the Nats had re-signed him to a minor league contract. \u00a0So Machada didn\u2019t have to stay on their active roster. \u00a0And indeed he didn\u2019t; he was injured all of 2007 and stayed with Minnesota\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/minors\/player.cgi?id=machad001ale\">AAA team until 2009<\/a>, never again broaching the majors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2007_Rule_V_Draft\">2007 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Matt Whitney<\/strong>: 1B\/3B, Drafted and then eventually returned back to Cleveland, who eventually made the former 1st rounder a ML free agent and we signed him after the 2008 season. \u00a0 We cut him after the 2009 season and he retired after 2010. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em><strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0failure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Garrett Guzman<\/strong>: LF\/RF: after Rule-5 selecting him, the team\u00a0eventually traded a PTBNL for him to Minnesota, then we cut him outright and nobody picked him up. \u00a0He played two years of Independent ball and was out of baseball after 2010. \u00a0Guzman is more infamously known as the player who was\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/lancasteronline.com\/article\/local\/227209_Harrisburg-Senators-player-charged-for-sex-with-teen.html\">caught having sex<\/a>\u00a0with an underage girl while playing for our AA team in Harrisburg in 2008, likely the reason why nobody picked him up after his DFA. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Nats lost one player of note in the minor league phase in this draft:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Brett Campbell<\/strong> was drafted by Milwaukee in the AAA phase of the rule-5 draft.\u00a0 Milwaukee <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Brett_Campbell\">released him in spring training<\/a> of the subsequent 2008 season and Campbell never played another inning of pro baseball.\u00a0 This seems especially odd to me: he was drafted in 2004 and rose all the way through the Nats system to debut in the majors by Sept of 2006.\u00a0 He pitched in just two games in 2006, and returned to the minors in 2007.\u00a0 Was he hurt?\u00a0 He was only 26 when he apparently hung them up.\u00a0 Oddity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2008_Rule_V_Draft\">2008 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Terrell Young<\/strong>: Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Cincinnati. \u00a0He got hurt, never played for us, and was eventually returned to the Reds. \u00a0 His injury was severe enough that he was out of baseball after being drafted; he has\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/minors\/player.cgi?id=young-001ter\">no professional games<\/a>\u00a0after 2008. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ricardo Nanita<\/strong>, selected in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/minors\/player.cgi?id=nanita001ric\">minor league phase<\/a>, played most of 2009, then went to the Mexican league, then got picked up by Toronto in minor league free agency and has been there ever since, playing all of 2013 in Buffalo. \u00a0\u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The team lost two players in the minor league phase:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>RHP <strong>Luis Ortega<\/strong> to Royals was <a href=\"Luis Ortega\">picked up off the Nats rookie squad<\/a>, pitched one more season for Kansas City&#8217;s rookie squad and was cut.<\/li>\n<li>RHP <strong>Josh Perrault<\/strong>\u00a0was picked up by the Orioles, who <a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/minors\/player.cgi?id=perrau001jos\">bounced him around their farm system<\/a> for a couple of years before he retired in 2010.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2009_Rule_V_Draft\">2009 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jamie Hoffman<\/strong>; OF, Drafted with the #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft from Los Angeles Dodgers and immediately\u00a0traded for\u00a0<strong>Brian Bruney<\/strong>\u00a0in a pre-arranged deal.\u00a0 NY returned him to the Dodgers later that spring. \u00a0 Bruney, meanwhile, immediately went to arbitration and lost with the team in the spring of 2010, was\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/brunebr01.shtml\">awful out of the gate<\/a>, and the team outright released him before the end of May. \u00a0\u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure, all the way around this transaction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The team lost one player in this draft:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Zech Zinicola<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted away from us by Toronto, who eventually returned him to the Nats without any Toronto appearances. \u00a0His selection was probably due to\u00a0<strong>Dana Brown<\/strong>\u2018s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/bleacherreport.com\/articles\/271379-blue-jays-add-dana-brown-to-front-office\">hiring in Toronto<\/a>, going from Washington\u2019s Scouting Director to being a special assistant to the GM in Toronto. \u00a0Zinicola remained in our farm system until 2013, when he was released.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2010_Rule_V_Draft\">2010 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Elvin Ramirez,<\/strong>\u00a0RH reliever, drafted from the New York Mets: he was injured in spring training and spent the entirety of the season on the DL. \u00a0Interestingly, the team returned him to New York in October, long before they needed to, and with New York this year he\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/r\/ramirel02.shtml\">made his way to the majors<\/a>\u00a0for some appearances. \u00a0If the team drafted him, why not keep him through spring training of 2012 to see if he was worth keeping? \u00a0It just seemed odd to give up on the draft pick while procedurally you could still keep him. \u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brian Broderick<\/strong>, RH Starting Pitcher, Drafted from St. Louis and stuck into the 2011\u2032s bullpen as the long-man\/mop-up guy. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/b\/brodebr01.shtml\">He was awful<\/a>, he was\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1387\">costing the team<\/a>\u00a0wins, and was eventually returned to St. Louis before May was out. \u00a0 However, St. Louis waived him towards the end of 2012 and we picked him back up. \u00a0I\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=4470\">projected him to be one of our AAA starters<\/a>\u00a0in 2013 but he struggled and ended the season in AA and likely will be cut loose this off-season.\u00a0<em>Verdict<\/em>: failure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The team lost one player in the 2010 draft:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Phillies drafted\u00a0<strong>Michael Martinez<\/strong>\u00a0away from the Nats, and he stuck on their roster as a backup middle infielder. \u00a0His\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/martimi02.shtml\">batting lines are awful<\/a>\u00a0though, and the Nats clearly had depth at middle infield at the time, so losing this player was not that big of a deal. \u00a0Even now, with his career .187 batting line, he couldn&#8217;t have helped us.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2011_Rule_V_Draft\">2011 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Nats did not take anyone for the first time in years, but had two players themselves taken. \u00a0Neither player drafted was a surprise; I\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=1996\">posted at the time<\/a>\u00a0that I thought both these players should have been protected.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Brad Meyers<\/strong>\u00a0(RH starting pitcher) was drafted by the New York Yankees, but he suffered an injury in spring training and was DL\u2019d all year. \u00a0He was returned to the Nats and subsequently missed all of 2013 too. \u00a0I listed him as a &#8220;release candidate&#8221; in my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8215\">2014 rotation projections<\/a>, not knowing if he&#8217;s healthy or if he can win a AAA rotation spot at this point with the talent we have matriculating upwards.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Erik Komatsu<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted by St. Louis (in retaliation for our taking Broderick the previous year?), made their 2012 opening day roster, played for a while before being waived, got picked up by Minnesota, and by Memorial Day was returned to Washington in a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/komater01.shtml#trans\">whirlwind set of transactions<\/a>. \u00a0I think he remains a minor league caliber player, with too little offense for a corner outfield position but not enough speed to play center.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2012_Rule_V_Draft\">2012 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Again, the team did not select anyone but got poached for four players in the major and minor phase.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>LHP <strong>Danny Rosenbaum<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted by Colorado to take part in their unique rotation experiment (where guys work up to a certain pitch count each night). \u00a0Rosenbaum didn&#8217;t make the Rockie&#8217;s pitching staff out of spring training (somewhat an indictment of Rosenbaum&#8217;s skills; Colorado&#8217;s rotation was one of the worst in the majors in 2013) and he was returned to Nats. \u00a0As most readers here know, Rosenbaum toiled in AAA a full season, putting up good but not great numbers, and seems like he&#8217;s destined to repeat that season for us again in 2014.<\/li>\n<li>Utility player <strong>Jeff Kobernus<\/strong>\u00a0was drafted by the Boston Red Sox, traded to Tigers and then eventually returned to Nats. \u00a0Kobernus turned out to be quite the speedster, stealing nearly a base every other game in the minors and earned a call-up to the big team in 2013. \u00a0At this point the team must feel relatively lucky to have gotten Kobernus back, given his call-up and possible future role as a backup.<\/li>\n<li>In the minor league phase, Nats draft bust\u00a0<strong>Jack McGeary<\/strong> was taken by the Red Sox. \u00a0He threw <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=519009\">21 ineffective innings<\/a> in short-A and low-A for Boston in 2013. \u00a0He&#8217;s from Boston, so it was a nice gesture, but it just doesn&#8217;t look like he&#8217;s ever going to recover from his arm issues. \u00a0Hey, at least he got his Stanford education and his bonus money.<\/li>\n<li>The Dodgers poached\u00a0<strong>Hector Nelo<\/strong> from the Nats AA team and stuck him on their own AA team &#8230; where he promptly made the all-star game again and had another excellent season. \u00a0I&#8217;ll be honest; I do not know the minor league rule-5 protection rules, but I wonder why an all-star player was exposed, no matter what his age.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/2013_Rule_V_Draft\">2013 Rule 5 Draft<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Once again, the team did not select anyone in the major league phase. \u00a0We did lose one player in the MLB phase:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>C\u00a0<strong>Adrian Nieto<\/strong> was the 2nd overall pick in the major league phase, by the Chicago White Sox. \u00a0As commenters noted though, it seemed like an odd pick for the White Sox, who have a couple of younger developing catchers in their system. \u00a0Meanwhile Nieto has never played above A-ball but did \u00a0hit <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=543589\">.285\/.373\/.449<\/a> this season. \u00a0Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher &#8230; even if he&#8217;s an old 24 in A-Ball. \u00a0I speculated in the comments of other posts that perhaps the White Sox just needed some catching help during the split squad games in 2014&#8217;s spring training, because the odds of Nieto sticking on a MLB roster for a full year seem incredibly slim. \u00a0I didn&#8217;t even mention him in my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=7502\">own pre-Rule5 analysis piece<\/a> for all of this reasoning. \u00a0Its hard not to see him getting returned to the Nats by April 1st.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the minor league phase, the Nats took a couple of players for organizational depth:\u00a0<strong>Theo Bowe<\/strong>, a AA outfielder from Cincinnati and\u00a0<strong>Martires Arias<\/strong>, a low-A right-hander from the New York Mets. \u00a0As mentioned above, these minor league acquisitions are essentially $12,000 purchases and the Nats now own these contracts.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong>: we\u2019ve drafted 10 guys in the MLB phase Rule 5 draft since 2005, and I\u2019d classify 9 of the 10 draftees as eventual failures. \u00a0Not a great track record. \u00a0Plus its safe to say that most every player drafted FROM us has been a failure for the drafting team \u00a0(the exceptions perhaps being Martinez or possibly Nelo). \u00a0Clearly the Rule 5 draft isn\u2019t a great way to reliably find players. \u00a0Why do we do so much analysis on it? \u00a0I dunno, because its fun? \u00a0Because its December and we&#8217;re desperate for Baseball news? \u00a0Fair enough \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(I should have published this in early December but got caught up in a glut of other posts; posting this now in lieu of just trashing it). The Nats for years were heavy participants in the Rule-5 draft, thanks to some pretty awful teams and some shrewd scouting. \u00a0In November 2011 I did a Rule-5 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2039],"tags":[2001,1242,72,2207,232,832,1240,508,851,311,436,1244,64,206,833,392,112,2169,1241,2168,2171,1243,1246,2167,1245,2170,1238,1239,88],"class_list":["post-8138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rule-5","tag-adrian-nieto","tag-alejandro-machada","tag-brad-meyers","tag-brett-campbell","tag-brian-broderick","tag-brian-bruney","tag-chris-booker","tag-dana-brown","tag-danny-rosenbaum","tag-elvin-ramirez","tag-erik-komatsu","tag-garrett-guzman","tag-hector-nelo","tag-jack-mcgeary","tag-jamie-hoffman","tag-jeff-kobernus","tag-jesus-flores","tag-josh-perrault","tag-levale-speigner","tag-luis-ortega","tag-martires-aries","tag-matt-whitney","tag-michael-martinez","tag-ricardo-nanita","tag-terrell-young","tag-theo-bowe","tag-tony-blanco","tag-tyrell-godwin","tag-zech-zinicola"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8138"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8138\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10285,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8138\/revisions\/10285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}