{"id":8189,"date":"2013-12-03T09:36:35","date_gmt":"2013-12-03T14:36:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8189"},"modified":"2013-12-03T09:37:04","modified_gmt":"2013-12-03T14:37:04","slug":"fister-acquisition-thoughts-and-fallout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8189","title":{"rendered":"Fister acquisition thoughts and fallout"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"What

What a steal; Fister joins the Nats rotation. AP Photo\/Paul Sancya via cbssports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Wow; I got into work today and opened up the\u00a0Washington Post<\/a>\u00a0and saw that the Nationals pulled off what I think is a huge steal of a trade, getting Detroit’s\u00a0Doug Fister<\/strong>\u00a0for three fringy guys in\u00a0Steve Lombardozzi<\/strong>,\u00a0Ian Krol<\/strong> and\u00a0Robbie Ray<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Taking the very glass is half empty view of the guys we just sent away: we get an\u00a0accomplished starter<\/a> for (frankly) two edge-of-the-25 man roster players in Lombardozzi and Krol, and a prospect who I like but who scouts never have really taken to in Ray. \u00a0Lombardozzi took a step back this year<\/a> offensively and despite being the kind of flexible, multi-positional player that teams crave this year (think of how Tampa Bay uses\u00a0Ben Zobrist<\/strong>) he was exposed at the plate and may have already shown what his peak is (backup infielder). \u00a0 Krol flashed up the farm system and looked fantastic in his early MLB appearances, but slumped enough to be demoted back to the minors in search of some consistency; he’s got a great arm but clearly is a one-out lefty. \u00a0Robbie Ray is a very young and accomplished starter who has operated in the shadow of his fellow high school draft-class mate A.J. Cole<\/strong> and has mostly out-pitched him, but the scouting reports on Ray seem bearish on his eventual ceiling (4th starter at best?). \u00a0
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If i’m a Detroit fan, I’m scratching my head here. \u00a0A backup infielder, a matchup-lefty with just a few months of MLB experience, and a AA prospect who is probably still 2 years away? \u00a0That’s the return for a cost-contained, effective 4th starter for a team who’s oft-repeated mantra is Win now? \u00a0I just don’t get this deal for the Tigers. \u00a0Yes Fister faces arbitration, and his salary may rise up to the $6-$7M range, and yes I guess Detroit has a ready-made replacement in\u00a0Jose Alvarez<\/strong> or perhaps Drew Smyly<\/b>,\u00a0but why are you trading away depth at a time like this? \u00a0Is this simply a money-saving deal? \u00a0 The team saves somewhere in the range of $6M in arbitration for Fister (paying MLB mins or less for all three guys they got back). \u00a0As others have pointed out, the Tigers really must have liked what they saw in Robbie Ray to make him the clear centerpiece of this deal.<\/p>\n

Some other quick responses in the Baseball analysis world:\u00a0Keith Law<\/strong>\u00a0hates the deal for Detroit<\/a>\u00a0with this quote summing it up nicely: “A lefty reliever, a backup at second and a non-top-100 prospect is just not a good return for two years of one of the top 30 starters in baseball.<\/em>” \u00a0\u00a0Jayson Stark<\/strong> thinks Detroit made this deal for payroll relief<\/a>\u00a0and seems to indicate that Detroit’s GM\u00a0Dave Dombrowski<\/strong> is already on the defensive<\/a>. \u00a0Matt Fillippi<\/strong> at HardBallTimes questions Detroit’s mindset<\/a>. \u00a0\u00a0Grant Brisbee<\/strong> wishes his team (the Giants) could have done this deal<\/a>. \u00a0Dave Cameron<\/strong> says the Nats “stole” Fister<\/a> in this deal. \u00a0 \u00a0So, I’m not being a homer in saying that, on the face of it, this is a fantastic deal.<\/p>\n

Fister posted 3.67 ERA in 2013 pitching in front of a horrible Detroit defense in the American League, so you would have to think that he’s going to immediately get that typical 1\/3 to 1\/2 point improvement on his ERA moving to the NL and facing weaker lineups and pitchers on a regular basis. \u00a0 Not to mention going from one of the worst infield defenses to one of the better ones. \u00a0Meanwhile, despite being called a “4th starter” Fister quietly has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the last three years; in Cameron’s fangraphs post he has a list of the top pitchers by various measures<\/a> over the last three years and Fister easily makes the top 15 arms in the game by most measures. \u00a0He’s a 4-WAR arm slotting into a near-replacement level WAR slot (Dan Haren<\/strong>) for half the price. \u00a0And the team basically gave away spare parts and a decent but not elite prospect to get him.<\/p>\n

Other positional fallout from this for the Nats off-season:<\/p>\n