{"id":8388,"date":"2014-03-10T09:50:16","date_gmt":"2014-03-10T13:50:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8388"},"modified":"2014-12-18T09:16:51","modified_gmt":"2014-12-18T14:16:51","slug":"2014-rotation-rankings-1-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8388","title":{"rendered":"2014 Rotation Rankings 1-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/a>

The ace on the best rotation in the game. Photo: talksportsphilly.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Last year, with my excitement over Washington’s\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong> signing and my supposition that Washington had the best rotation in the game, I\u00a0ranked all 30 team’s rotations<\/a> ahead of the 2013 season. \u00a0Then, after the season was done, I revisited these pre-season rankings<\/a> with a post-mortem to see how close (or, more appropriately, how far off) my rankings turned out to be.<\/p>\n

Here’s the 2014 version of this same post: Pre-season rankings of the MLB’s rotations; 1 through 30. \u00a0Warning; this is another huge post. \u00a0I guess I’m just verbose. \u00a0At this point midway through Spring Training there’s just a couple of possible FAs left that could have altered these rankings (Ervin Santana<\/strong> being the important name unsigned right now), so I thought it was time to publish.<\/p>\n

The top teams are easy to guess; once you get into the 20s, it becomes pretty difficult to distinguish between these teams. \u00a0Nonetheless, here we go (I heavily depended on baseball-reference.com and mlbdepthcharts.com for this post, along with ESPN’s transaction list per team and Baseball Prospectus’ injury reports for individual players).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. St. Louis:\u00a0Wainwright, Miller, Wacha,\u00a0Lynn\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong>and\u00a0Kelly<\/strong> (or perhaps\u00a0Carlos Martinez<\/strong>)\u00a0 They let Westbrook <\/strong>walk in FA (and he remains unsigned) and former staff ace Chris Carpenter<\/strong> retired after not being able to make it back at all for 2013.\u00a0 Jamie Garcia<\/strong> is hurting and may start the season on the D\/L, but honestly its hard to see how he fits into this rotation as it projects right now. \u00a0Maybe Lance Lynn<\/strong> is really a long-man based on his peripherals; if so the rotation only looks better if you replace him with Martinez. \u00a0Spot-starters\u00a0Tyler Lyons<\/strong> and\u00a0John Gast<\/strong> from last season sit in AAA waiting their turn. \u00a0 If they really had a spate of injuries, half the guys in their bullpen probably could swing over and start (Trevor Rosenthal<\/strong> had always been a starter until reaching the majors, even though he’s slated to be their closer). \u00a0The Cardinals remain an embarassment of riches; they may not have two Cy Young winners on the staff but their depth and their potential puts them slightly above Detroit and Washington for me.<\/li>\n
  2. Detroit:\u00a0Verlander, Scherzer,\u00a0<\/strong>Sanchez, Smyly, Porcello<\/strong>. \u00a0As is well known in DC, the Tigers are rolling the dice that traded-away Doug Fister<\/strong> can be replaced like for like with\u00a0Drew Smyly<\/strong>. \u00a0The pedigree of the rest of the squad speaks for it self; 2 guys with Cy Youngs, a rejuvinated Anibal Sanchez<\/strong> and an underrated\u00a0Rick Porcello<\/strong> in the 5th spot. \u00a0\u00a0Past that, there’s not much starting experience with MLB experience on the projected 25-man (Jose Alvarez<\/strong>\u00a0being about it), and there’s not much in the high-minors to count on either. \u00a0Detroit’s rotation was head-and-shoulders the best in the league by any metric last year, and that was with a down year from ace Verlander. \u00a0Smyly looked good in relief appearances last year and was decent enough in 18 starts in 2012. \u00a0Even if Scherzer steps back a bit, I still think this is nearly the best rotation in the game top to bottom.<\/li>\n
  3. Washington:\u00a0Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Fister, Detwiler<\/strong>\u00a0(with\u00a0Jordan<\/strong>,\u00a0Roark<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Ohlendorf<\/strong>\u00a0ready to fill-in). \u00a0The Nats wave good-bye to the ineffective\u00a0Dan Haren<\/strong>\u00a0and replace him with\u00a0Doug Fister<\/strong>, who they “stole” from the Tigers and who may very well be the best 4th starter in the game. \u00a0Fister quietly is one of the best pitchers in the game (he sits\u00a013th in fWAR<\/a>\u00a0among all pitchers in the game in the last four seasons … ) and does not come with any question as to his ability (14-9, 3.67 ERA in the AL last year). \u00a0 He does suddenly though have a question about his health, currently being shelved with “elbow inflammation.” \u00a0Unlike in 2012, the Nats this year have plans A, B and C already in place were they to lose a starter to injury. \u00a0 Most pundits feel that the strength of this group with the addition of Fister makes the Nats one of the best and I agree; not quite #1 but close to it.<\/li>\n
  4. Tampa Bay:\u00a0Price, Moore,\u00a0<\/strong>Cobb, Archer, Odorizzi<\/strong>. \u00a0\u00a0The Rays let\u00a0Roberto Hernandez<\/strong>\u00a0(aka\u00a0Fausto Carmona<\/strong>) and injured starter\u00a0Jeff Niemann<\/strong>\u00a0walk in FA, counting on internal depth to get them by in 2014. \u00a0And they’ll need it:\u00a0\u00a0Hellickson<\/strong>\u00a0had elbow surgery in January and won’t be back until June 1 at the earliest, pushing #1 prospect\u00a0Jake Odorizzi<\/strong>\u00a0potentially into the opening day rotation. \u00a0 They signed\u00a0Erik Bedard\u00a0<\/strong>for depth, and he’ll likely go to AAA with top-end prospects Alex Colome, Mike Montgomery, Enny Romero<\/strong> and ex-Nat\u00a0Nathan Karns<\/strong>. \u00a0 However their best “move” this off-season may have been keeping\u00a0David Price<\/strong>; with Price at the top this is one heck of a rotation. \u00a0 I did a couple of pieces last year questioning whether Durham’s (Tampa’s AAA team) rotation was better than Houston’s (preseason<\/a> and then mid-season<\/a> posts)… I may do it again this year. \u00a0Tampa enters 2014 with a very good rotation and a ton of depth. \u00a0The rest of the AL east is shuddering.<\/li>\n
  5. Cincinnati:\u00a0Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake,\u00a0<\/strong>Cingrani<\/strong>\u00a0(with\u00a0Jeff Francis<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Chien-Ming Wang<\/strong>\u00a0providing some AAA cover). \u00a0The Reds let Bronson Arroyo<\/strong> walk and are replacing him like-for-like with uber-lefty Cingrani. \u00a0Cingrani more than ably filled in for Cueto last year, who had 3 different D\/L trips, and if all these guys are healthy Cincy is improved over last year’s excellent rotation. \u00a0But can Cueto stay healthy? \u00a0The Reds’ next big SP prospect is scheduled to be in AA or AAA (Robert Stephenson<\/strong>) but he’s only 21 and needs more seasoning. \u00a0Cincinnati better hope for another year of stability, else they’ll see just how big an ERA Francis or Wang can put up in their tiny litle ballpark.<\/li>\n
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers:\u00a0Kershaw,\u00a0Greinke<\/strong>,\u00a0Ryu<\/strong>,\u00a0Haren, Maholm<\/strong>. \u00a0 The team let Ricky Nolasco<\/strong> and Chris Capuano<\/strong> leave via FA, replaced them with Haren and Maholm, who were not exactly world beaters based on their performances last year … but their numbers should improve thanks to the cavernous Dodger stadium. \u00a0The Dodgers also allowed\u00a0Edinson Volquez<\/strong>\u00a0to leave, having picked him up off of release waivers to provide some September 2013 cover. \u00a0Meanwhile there’s still a slew of starters on the staff who are in various state of recovery from injury (Beckett<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Billingsley<\/strong>\u00a0the two most important). \u00a0And they have several guys in AAA who could help or did help in 2013 (Stephen Fife, Mike Magill<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Seth Rosin<\/strong>, along with prospects\u00a0Zach Lee<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Ross<\/strong> Stripling<\/strong>, though he’s just blown his UCL)\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0So, \u00a0there’s plenty of arms to throw against the wall and see who sticks if Haren and Maholm falter. \u00a0But looking at the projected starting 5 right now … I’m not sure why some pundits are calling this the best rotation in the game. \u00a0One through Three they’re as good as it gets, and if Beckett and Billingsly were listed as #4 and #5 instead of Haren and Maholm they’d be pushing towards the top of this list. \u00a0Its good, but not better than the teams above them here.<\/li>\n
  7. Boston:\u00a0Lester, Buchholz, Lackey,<\/strong>\u00a0Doubront<\/strong>, and\u00a0Peavy<\/strong>\u00a0(possibly\u00a0Capuano<\/strong>?)\u00a0Ryan Dempster<\/strong>\u00a0suddenly decided he didn’t want a $13M payday and quit the season, leaving an interesting void in the rotation that looks like it will be filled with the inconsistent Dubront. \u00a0 Is Buchholz ready to go 200 innings? \u00a0If not, there’s more than a few intriguing names slated for their AAA team (Workman, De La Rosa<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Ranaudo<\/strong>) that could fill in. \u00a0How good is Lester going to be this year? \u00a0Is Lackey going to be the same contributor he was last year? \u00a0They could have a pretty good 1-2 punch at the top. \u00a0Based on how these guys all over-achieved in 2013, i’m putting them top 10 to start.<\/li>\n
  8. Seattle:\u00a0Hernandez, Iwakuma, Baker, Walker,<\/strong>\u00a0Paxton<\/strong>. \u00a0\u00a0 The Mariners are going with a youth movement this year, replacing ineffective veteran starters from last year (Saunders<\/strong>,\u00a0Harang, Bonderman<\/strong>) with the fruits of their farm system. \u00a0Ready or not,\u00a0Taijuan Walker<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0James Paxton<\/strong>\u00a0are the Mariners’ top to pitching prospects and they’re going to play a big part on the season. \u00a0Fellow youngsters\u00a0Maurer\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0Ramirez<\/strong>\u00a0will join local product\u00a0Danny Hultzen<\/strong>\u00a0in AAA and hope to improve on their 2013 dress rehearsal numbers. \u00a0Iwakuma strained a tendon in his pitching hand early in ST, but I’m not putting him on the D\/L yet; were he to go, this rotation’s rank would take a huge hit. \u00a0As it is, i’m going slightly higher than they probably should be thanks to the scouting reports on these guys.<\/li>\n
  9. Atlanta:\u00a0Medlen,\u00a0<\/strong>Minor,\u00a0Teheran,\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong>Alex Wood<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Brandon Beachy<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>(<\/strong>#1 starter prospect\u00a0David Hale<\/strong>\u00a0ready to back-fill). \u00a0They also have\u00a0Freddie Garcia<\/strong>\u00a0in camp as an NRI and he could make for a good AAA insurance policy to go along with MLFA signing Gavin Floyd<\/b>. \u00a0From last season they lost\u00a0Hudson<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Maholm<\/strong>\u00a0to FA. \u00a0Depending an awful lot on the kids (Teheran and Wood are both just 22), and while most would argue that Wood for Hudson is an improvement, Hudson was more than just a veteran staff member here. \u00a0He was their Ace, their opening day starter, their bulldog. \u00a0I think his loss is significant, and if one of these guys gets hurt (Beachy hasn’t been healthy for a while and Wood’s mechanics make\u00a0Chris Sale<\/strong>‘s look clean) they could be pressed quickly. \u00a0One late-breaking news item<\/em> that knocked Atlanta down a peg or two: Medlen left his last ST start with a strained forearm; if he can’t start the season that’s a huge hit. \u00a0Buster Olney<\/strong> posted today<\/a> about Atlanta’s sudden pitching issues and surmises they may be on the market sooner rather than later.<\/li>\n
  10. New York Yankees:\u00a0Sabathia, Kuroda, Tanaka, Nova, Phelps<\/strong>.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0Ah the Yankees, home of the most expensive “#3 starter” in the world. \u00a0 They lose Andy Pettitte<\/strong> to his 2nd retirement and Phil Hughes<\/strong> to FA. \u00a0 They have a couple of interesting names in AAA (Michael Pineda<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Manny Banuelos<\/strong>) who have been kicking around prospect circles for ages; they also have one\u00a0Vidal Nuno<\/strong>, who had a cup of coffee last year. \u00a0That’s it for the $250M payroll Yankees in terms of rotation depth. \u00a0If 39-yr old Kuroda gets hurt, if Tanaka can’t make the transition to the US, if Phelps continues to pitch at a 5.00 ERA pace … there’s not a lot of safety net here. \u00a0Still, the scouting reports i’m reading on Tanaka make him sound like a power-sinker baller like Dan Haren in his prime, but with more velocity. \u00a0And they’re saying he’s the 2nd best japanese pitching prospect ever behind\u00a0Yu Darvish<\/strong> … heady praise considering his pedigree. \u00a0Combine all this with Sabathia’s off-season workout routine and this rotation may be better than even I suspect.<\/li>\n
  11. Pittsburgh:\u00a0\u00a0Liriano, Cole, Morton,\u00a0<\/strong>Rodriguez, Volquez<\/strong>\u00a0with\u00a0Locke<\/strong><\/strong>\u00a0as swingman.\u00a0 Pittsburgh faces some transition this year, having seen staff veteran\u00a0A.J. Burnett<\/strong>\u00a0leave for more money across the state in Philadelphia. \u00a0They also said good-bye to ineffective veterans\u00a0Jonathan Sanchez<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0James McDonald<\/strong>, who both decamped to the Cubs. \u00a0To replace Burnett’s innings, they’ve picked up\u00a0Edinson Volquez<\/strong>, last year’s opening day starter in San Diego but who was flat out released by August. \u00a0 They do have a slew of arms in AAA that made spot-starts for them last year … and they have a very important name in\u00a0Jamison Taillon<\/strong>\u00a0who should be ready by mid-season. \u00a0Now, adding Taillon to this group DOES make up for the loss of Burnett; the real question comes down to whether Liriano can repeat his season and stay healthy, and if Cole can continue to grow. \u00a0 I like this rotation and its potential if the can bridge the gap from opening day to Taillon’s debut. \u00a0(Intersting side-note: the Pirates also have\u00a0one\u00a0Andy Oliver<\/strong>\u00a0in their camp; his name came up recently with the\u00a0Wetzler<\/strong>\/Phillies debacle<\/a>\u00a0because Oliver was similarly banned by the NCAA. \u00a0Unfortunately Oliver looks like he could be a 4-A guy, but still is sticking as a lefty starter).<\/li>\n
  12. Miami:\u00a0Fernandez<\/strong>,\u00a0Eovaldi, Turner,\u00a0<\/strong>Alvarez,<\/strong>\u00a0Koehler. \u00a0<\/strong>The Marlins inevitably traded 2013 opening day starter\u00a0Nolasco,<\/strong>\u00a0but otherwise enter the 2014 season with pretty much the same crew that they ended last season with … and they’re not half bad. \u00a0Koehler is the veteran at age 27; the rest of this projected rotation are (respectively) 21, 24, 22 and 23. \u00a0 The youngsters all put up sub 3.50 ERAs last season, with Fernandez putting up near Cy Young numbers while winning the Rookie of the Year. \u00a0If Koehler can’t cut it, there’s a slew of arms at AAA who featured briefly last year who are all equally young and on the 40-man for easy call-up\/sending-down. \u00a0This team may struggle to score runs, but their rotation looks solid.<\/li>\n
  13. Texas:\u00a0Darvish, Ogando,\u00a0<\/strong>Perez,\u00a0<\/strong>Hanson<\/strong>,\u00a0Lewis<\/strong> (Joe Saunders<\/strong> for depth). \u00a0No team has been hurt more by off-season injuries than Texas. \u00a0They’ve lost one starter (Derek Holland)<\/strong>\u00a0for half the season thanks to knee surgery (he apparently tripped over his dog), and now have a second starter (Matt Harrison<\/strong>) struggling with the same back issues that cost him all of 2013. \u00a0 I wonder if the team is now regretting letting\u00a0Matt Garza<\/strong>\u00a0take off in free agency… \u00a0Now instead of having Holland and Harrison lining up 2-3 they’re going to depend on free agent signing Tommy Hanson<\/strong> (who even the pitching starved Angels didn’t want) and hip-surgery survivor\u00a0Colby Lewis<\/strong>\u00a0in the 4th and 5th spot. \u00a0 They did add veteran lefty (and DC Native)\u00a0Joe Saunders<\/strong> mid-spring to give some 5th starter depth, but that doens’t help them much. \u00a0They flipped\u00a0Justin Grimm<\/strong>\u00a0to acquire Garza last year, they flipped\u00a0Josh Lindbloom<\/strong>\u00a0to the A’s, and outrighted a couple others who gave them spot starts (Ross Wolf, Travis Blackley<\/strong>). \u00a0Their AAA team is a mess of MLFAs (including former near-perfect game pitcher\u00a0Armando Galarraga<\/strong>), so there’s not much help there. \u00a0I sense some possible trouble for this rotation this year.<\/li>\n
  14. Philadelphia:\u00a0Hamels, Lee,\u00a0Burnett,\u00a0<\/strong>Kendrick,\u00a0<\/strong>Hernandez<\/strong>. (Pettibone<\/strong>\u00a0possible replacement). \u00a0Former Ace\u00a0Roy Halladay<\/strong>\u00a0retired this off-season (as a Toronto Blue Jay<\/a>), and the team let\u00a0John Lannan<\/strong>\u00a0and his 5.33 ERA walk. \u00a0In their places they are going to rely on\u00a0A.J. Burnett<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0\u00a0Roberto Hernandez\u00a0<\/strong>(formerly known as\u00a0Fausto Carmona<\/strong>). \u00a0 I don’t mind the Burnett signing but the Hernandez signing seems iffy to me; he was pretty bad in Tampa; what makes anyone think he’ll succeed in a hitter’s paradise like CBP? \u00a0 I’d almost rather go with\u00a0Jonathan Pettibone<\/strong>\u00a0who gave them 18 decent starts as a 22-yr old last year. \u00a0 \u00a0There’s a couple guys at AAA that could feature, including decent prospect\u00a0Jessie Biddle<\/strong>. \u00a0But things could get ugly fast for this team;\u00a0Cole Hamels<\/strong>\u00a0is reportedly fighting tendinitis already and Kendrick isn’t much more than a #4\/#5 starter. \u00a0If one of these older guys goes down with an injury, the Phillies are plunging towards 90 losses fast. \u00a0Well lets be honest; they’re likely already heading there regardless, given how quickly their offense is aging.<\/li>\n
  15. Oakland:\u00a0Griffen, Parker, Straily, Kazmir,\u00a0<\/strong>Gray<\/b>, pushing\u00a0Tommy Milone<\/strong>\u00a0to the pen or to AAA. \u00a0Mr. Wheel-and-deal\u00a0Billy Beane<\/strong>\u00a0is at it again. \u00a0Changes from last year’s rotation:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0Traded\u00a0Brett Anderson<\/strong>\u00a0for some depth in\u00a0Drew<\/strong>\u00a0Pomeranz<\/b>, let the ageless\u00a0Bartolo Colon<\/strong>\u00a0and his “exercise regiment” walk as well. \u00a0\u00a0<\/b>He also\u00a0signed\u00a0Scott Kazmir<\/strong>\u00a0for 2014 as his next reclamation project (though to be fair Kazmir was just fine for Cleveland last year). \u00a0He also signed Phil Humber<\/strong> for AAA depth. \u00a0 His starters for the most part were solid and healthy last year and should be again this year. \u00a0Sonny Gray<\/strong>\u00a0was a revalation last October and could quickly become this team’s Ace. \u00a0Otherwise this is a solid bunch; not world-beaters but good solid innings-eaters. \u00a0I’d like to rank these guys higher, but the closer I look at them individually the more I see that they’re mostly #3 starters who play in a massive park. \u00a0Well, Gray could be special … but the rest do enough to get by.<\/li>\n
  16. San Francisco:\u00a0Cain, Lincecum,\u00a0Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Hudson<\/strong>\u00a0with\u00a0Yusmeiro Petit<\/strong>\u00a0as swingman).\u00a0<\/strong>Pretty easy off-season for the Giants: cut ties with\u00a0Barry Zito<\/strong>\u00a0and sign up\u00a0Tim Hudson\u00a0<\/strong>in an excellent, shrewd signing to replace him. \u00a0They had a slew of other guys put up spot starts here and there (including\u00a0Chad Gaudin<\/strong>, who was just released by the Phillies after failing his physical; odd), but the heavy lifting for this team was done by thjis core group. \u00a0 Hudson is pretty clearly an improvement over Zito, so this rotation should be improved. \u00a0But by how much? \u00a0Vogelsong missed a ton of time after getting hit by a pitch, and struggled otherwise; was it because he had a broken hand? \u00a0And if one of these guys goes down with injury or underperformance (ahem, looking at you Mr. Lincecum), there’s practically nothing at the AAA level right now to call up. \u00a0Meanwhile what happened to\u00a0Matt Cain<\/strong>\u00a0last year? \u00a0A 4.00 era? \u00a0An 83 ERA+? \u00a0 Its hard to know what to expect out of this group but GM\u00a0Brian Sabean<\/strong>\u00a0is staying the course, clearly expecting some returning to form out of his high priced starters.<\/li>\n
  17. Arizona:\u00a0Miley,\u00a0<\/strong>Corbin<\/strong>,\u00a0McCarthy,\u00a0Cahill, Arroyo<\/strong>,\u00a0Delgado. \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Traded\u00a0Kennedy<\/strong>\u00a0for a loogy and a AA closer (in yet another example of Arizona getting 50 cents on the dollar for a player whose “makeup” they had issues with…) and traded\u00a0Skaggs<\/strong>\u00a0to get\u00a0Trumbo<\/strong>. \u00a0 One of the kids (likely Delgado) will be sent back to AAA and\/or be sent to the pen with the Arroyo signing (which made\u00a0some pundits shake their heads<\/a>; why bring a homer-prone fly ball pitcher to a hitter’s park?). \u00a0#1 prospect\u00a0Archie Bradley<\/strong>\u00a0may be young but he’ll be ready mid-season, as will\u00a0Daniel Hudson<\/strong>, coming off TJ surgery. \u00a0 The Skaggs for Trumbo trade also caused curious reactions, but the presence of Bradley made Skaggs somewhat expendable, I guess. \u00a0There’s depth here but no ace. \u00a0As with Oakland, I’d like to rank this group higher but just can’t.<\/li>\n
  18. Kansas City:\u00a0Shields, Guthrie, Vargas, Duffy,<\/strong>\u00a0Chen\u00a0<\/b>with\u00a0Wade Davis\u00a0<\/b>back as a swing man and a couple other prospects that could pitch in.\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0 They let Ervin\u00a0Santana<\/strong>\u00a0walk, where he still sits un-signed as of this writing, and released\u00a0Luis Mendoza<\/strong>. \u00a0They signed\u00a0Jason Vargas<\/strong>\u00a0to a surprising deal (4yrs\/$30M) and he should slot in as the third starter. \u00a0Duffy looked good in small sample sizes last year. \u00a0I’m not convinced that Vargas is an improvement over Santana at this point and feel like this rotation could take a step back. \u00a0Not good when GM\u00a0Dayton Moore<\/strong>\u00a0very much faces a “win now” mandate. \u00a0On the bright side, if someone falters the Royals have their two best prospects in\u00a0Yordano Ventura<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Kyle Zimmer<\/strong>\u00a0waiting in AAA. \u00a0Zimmer in particular would have been MLB ready had it not been for a shoulder issue last summer; he would make a great 2nd half call-up.<\/li>\n
  19. Chicago White Sox:\u00a0Sale, Danks, Quintana<\/strong>,\u00a0Paulino,\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0<\/strong>Erik Johnson<\/strong>\u00a0(Rienzo).\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0They flipped\u00a0Peavy<\/strong>\u00a0to Boston mid-2013, traded\u00a0Santiago<\/strong>\u00a0to the Angels and likely are \u00a0moving\u00a0Axelrod<\/strong>\u00a0to the bullpen. \u00a0They’re rolling the dice on FA signing Paulino, who looked great for KC in 2012 before getting TJ surgery. \u00a0Waiting in the wings is Rienzo, who got some work last year, and not much else on the farm. \u00a0If #1 prospect Johnson can’t help, this team looks like it’ll be just as bad in 2014 as they were in 2013.<\/li>\n
  20. Toronto:\u00a0Dickey<\/strong>,\u00a0Morrow<\/strong>,\u00a0Buehrle, Happ,<\/strong>\u00a0Drabek<\/strong>\u00a0(with\u00a0Rogers<\/strong>\u00a0as 6th man). \u00a0The stink of the 2013 season remains; what else can Toronto do? \u00a0They gave up on\u00a0Josh\u00a0\u00a0Johnson<\/strong>\u00a0but are set to head into 2014 with 5 guys, none of which posted an ERA below 4.15 or an ERA+ above 100 last year. \u00a0 They’ve got a couple of interesting names in AAA (including\u00a0Ricky Romero<\/b>\u00a0and Toronto’s best prospect in\u00a0Marcus Strohman<\/strong>, possibly another youngster in\u00a0Hutchinson<\/strong>) but who will make way? \u00a0Perhaps\u00a0JA Happ<\/strong>, who has never impressed after one breakout season in Philadelphia and who apparently is struggling with back issues this spring. \u00a0Kyle Drabek<\/strong>\u00a0was famously the lynchpin prospect in the\u00a0Roy Halladay<\/strong>\u00a0trade four years ago, but has never really lived up to his reputation and missed a ton of last year recovering from his SECOND Tommy John surgery. \u00a0These are good pitchers (especially Cy Young winner Dickey); will they continue to underperform?<\/li>\n
  21. Cleveland:\u00a0Masterson, McAllister, Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar<\/strong>.\u00a0 Ace and surprising career revivalist Ubaldo Jimenez<\/strong> left via FA. \u00a0So did another surprising come-back candidate in Scott Kazmir<\/strong>. \u00a0They’re rolling the dice with NRIs Shawn Marcum<\/strong> (who was an ugly 1-10 for the Mets last year), Aaron Harang<\/strong>,\u00a0Carrasco (who was awful last year), and with the very promising\u00a0Danny Salazar<\/strong> in an open competition this spring (we’re projecting Carrasco and Salazar are the winners here). \u00a0They also still have the engimatic\u00a0Trevor Bauer<\/strong> toiling away stubbornly in AAA, refusing to change his approach. \u00a0I think Cleveland is taking a signficant step back this year.<\/li>\n
  22. Milwaukee:\u00a0Lohse<\/strong>,\u00a0Gallardo, Estrada, Peralta, Garza. \u00a0<\/strong>The first four names on this list were all solid rotation members last year; then Milwaukee seemed to hold an open casting call for its 5th starter all year; 8 different guys gave them starts. \u00a0Hopefully\u00a0Matt Garza<\/strong>\u00a0brings some stability there so the Brewers head into the season knowing who is taking the ball every day. \u00a0Now, some of the cattle call weren’t half bad: ex-Nat\u00a0Tom Gorzelanny<\/strong> gave them great innings and is projected as a swing man. \u00a0There’s a whole slew of guys in AAA who have had a taste now of the majors, and are ready to provide cover if needed. \u00a0 Still, this isn’t exactly a murder’s rowe of hurlers, even with Garza added into the mix. \u00a0Still, I could have them ranked slightly lower than they belong; I would not argue with some thinking they belonged higher.<\/li>\n
  23. Los Angeles Angels:\u00a0Weaver, Wilson, Richards, Skaggs, Santiago<\/strong>\u00a0(with\u00a0Blanton<\/strong>\u00a0and his 2-14 record last season now titled the “long man”). \u00a0The Angels recognized how bad their pitching was in 2013 and acquired reinforcements. \u00a0They traded for\u00a0Skaggs<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Santiago<\/strong>. \u00a0The let Hanson walk, let Williams walk and let Vargas walk. \u00a0Unfortunately … that’s about all they have in terms of depth. \u00a0Richards may be their #3 starter right now, but he only posted a 91 ERA+ last year. \u00a0Tyler Skaggs<\/strong>\u00a0is a kid and posted a 5+ ERA in Arizona. \u00a0Hector Santiago<\/strong>\u00a0may be the true #3 out of this group, and if someone gets hurt there’s very little in AAA to help out. \u00a0Meanwhile Weaver and Wilson aren’t the studs they used to be; both took steps back last year.\u00a0\u00a0This is already a thin staff; they better hope nobody gets hurt.<\/li>\n
  24. New York Mets: Colon<\/strong>,\u00a0Wheeler<\/strong>,\u00a0Niese, Gee, Mejia (Carlos Torres\u00a0<\/strong>as swingman). \u00a0No team takes a tumble down the rankings from last year’s end-of-season group like the Mets, thanks to\u00a0Matt Harvey<\/strong>‘s injury. \u00a0 The Mets also let\u00a0Shawn Marcum<\/strong> walk after he went 1-10 for them. \u00a0Also gone is veteran Aaron Harang<\/strong>. \u00a0Daisuke Matsuzaka<\/strong> threw a few starts for them last year and has signed back on as a MLFA\/NRI, but seems like a long shot to make the team, but could join an illustrious list of veteran FA signees in AAA (Jeremy Hefner<\/strong> and ex-Nat\u00a0John Lannan<\/strong> are also projected in AAA, if they stay with the team). \u00a0Unfortunately, replacing the best arm in the game with Bartolo Colon<\/strong> does not inspire confidence. \u00a0The Mets basically put their rebuilding plans on hold for a year thanks to the Harvey injury, but when he comes back they’ll have a formidable 1-2-3-4 with Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia and #1 prospect\u00a0Noah Snydergaard<\/strong>, currently in AA and projected by 2015. \u00a0 The Mets will rise again … just not in 2014.<\/li>\n
  25. Baltimore:\u00a0Jimenez<\/strong>,\u00a0Chen, Tillman, Gonzalez, Norris<\/strong>\u00a0with prospects\u00a0Gausman<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Britton<\/strong>\u00a0at fighting for the 5th spot.\u00a0 \u00a0Let Hammel and Feldman leave via FA, sold Garcia to the Braves and traded Arrieta to get Feldman. \u00a0 New IFA\u00a0Suk-min Yoon<\/strong>\u00a0is a relative unknown; he could be a starter, a swingman or a reliever at this point. \u00a0Lots of turnover here. \u00a0#1 starter prospect\u00a0Dylan Bundy<\/strong>\u00a0is still recovering from TJ and won’t start throwing again til July; he’s going to be no help this year.<\/li>\n
  26. Chicago Cubs:\u00a0Samardzija,\u00a0<\/strong>Wood<\/strong>, \u00a0Jackson<\/strong>,\u00a0Hammel, McDonald<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Sold off\u00a0Garza<\/strong> and\u00a0Feldman<\/strong>\u00a0last season for prospects, let Baker<\/strong> leave via FA. \u00a0Rolling the dice with who they have in-house and holding on for another year with some low-end FA signings in Hammel and McDonald (as well as Jonathan Sanchez<\/strong>).\u00a0\u00a0They also have Jake Arrieta<\/strong> in camp (but he’s already hurt). \u00a0Basically Theo Epstein<\/strong> signed half the retread reclamation veteran pitchers on the market hoping for one or two to stick. \u00a0They do\u00a0have the likes of Rusin<\/strong> in the minors and a couple other possible prospects to give the team starts if needed. \u00a0But this looks like a weaker bunch, especially after 1-2.<\/li>\n
  27. San Diego:\u00a0Kennedy,\u00a0Cashner,\u00a0Johnson,<\/strong><\/strong> Stults, Ross. \u00a0<\/strong>The Padres flat out released Edinson Volquez<\/strong>, their 2013 opening day starter, a sign of things to come. \u00a0 They also parted ways with veterans Clayton Richards<\/strong> and Jason Marquis<\/strong> (the latter of which underwent TJ surgery and now is in a pretty bad spot for a pitcher; rehabbing without a team). \u00a0 That’s 3\/5ths of last year’s rotation out the door. \u00a0In comes Kennedy (acquired in trade mid-last season),\u00a0Andrew Cashner<\/strong> (acquired in trade the year prior) and found-gold pitcher\u00a0Eric Stults<\/strong>. \u00a0They’re rolling the dice on\u00a0Josh Johnson<\/strong>‘s health; if he’s healthy he’ll be a stud in San Diego’s ball-park. \u00a0Otherwise there’s not a ton of depth here; they’ve lost\u00a0Cory Luebke<\/strong> for the 2nd year in a row to TJ surgery, and their AAA staff isn’t anything special. \u00a0I see continuing struggles if Johnson and Kennedy aren’t world-beaters right out of the gate.<\/li>\n
  28. Colorado:\u00a0Chatwood<\/strong>,\u00a0De La Rosa, Chacin, Anderson,<\/strong>\u00a0Morales<\/strong>\u00a0with\u00a0Nicaso<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Lyles<\/strong>\u00a0in AAA.\u00a0\u00a0Francis<\/strong>\u00a0left via free agency,\u00a0Oswalt<\/strong>\u00a0retired, they released\u00a0Garland<\/strong>\u00a0who never re-signed anywhere and still sits unsigned into 2014, they acquired\u00a0Brett Anderson<\/strong>\u00a0from Oakland for dimming prospect\u00a0Drew Pomeranz<\/strong>\u00a0and they acquired\u00a0Franklin Morales<\/strong>\u00a0from Boston in December. \u00a0Their top 3 guys shouldn’t be too bad, but Chacin has had some early injury issues in Feb 2014. \u00a0Anderson hadn’t been healthy in years. \u00a0All their prospects who gave them spot-starts last year were awful; it could get ugly in Colorado if one of these starters gets hurt. \u00a0Nicaso and Lyles won’t be much help.<\/li>\n
  29. Houston: Feldman, Oberholtzer, Cosart,\u00a0Williams,\u00a0Peacock<\/strong> with Harrell, Keuchel<\/strong>, and Paul Clemens<\/strong> (who went to Robinson HS in Fairfax) as depth. \u00a0From last year Houston flipped Norris to Baltimore, traded Lyles to Colorado, and let Bedard<\/strong> and Humber<\/strong> go to FA. \u00a0For 2014 they signed Scott Feldman<\/strong> (to a 3yr\/$30M deal ??) and Jerome Williams<\/strong> (a former Nat who was out of the game for four years before coming back with the Angels) as stop-gap innings eaters. \u00a0They’re still going to be depending heavily on youngsters Brett Oberholzer<\/strong> (who they got in the\u00a0Michael Bourn<\/strong> trade a couple years back) and ace-in-the-making\u00a0Jarred Cosart<\/strong> (who posted a 1.95 ERA in 10 starts last fall) to lead the line. \u00a0Unfortunately, while Cosart looks promising and former Nat\u00a0Brad Peacock<\/strong> looked pretty good in Aug and Sept of last year, their secondary arms were all awful last year and the two stop-gap FAs are both #5 starters at best. \u00a0Houston easily looks destined for another 100 loss season or worse. \u00a0Almost all of their big-time prospects are in AA right now; this could be a pretty good team in two years.<\/li>\n
  30. Minnesota:\u00a0Nolasco, Hughes,\u00a0Correia,\u00a0<\/strong><\/strong>Pelfrey, Worley<\/strong>\u00a0(Diamond\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>as swing man?)\u00a0New signing Nolasco raised eyebrows, especially for this franchise. \u00a04yrs\/$48M, and they picked up Yankees cast-off\u00a0Phil Hughes<\/strong> as well. \u00a0Otherwise the performances of Pelfrey (5.19 ERA) and Worley (7.21 ERA) last year leave something to be desired. \u00a0Perhaps Scott<\/strong> \u00a0Diamond <\/strong>takes some starts. \u00a0Their most effective starter last year (Samuel Denudo<\/strong>) had off-season surgery and may start in the minors. \u00a0This is an ugly looking group, even with Nolasco at the head. \u00a0They need former Nat\u00a0Alex Meyer<\/strong> sooner rather than later.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    \n

    Several leading baseball columnists have posted their own top 10 rankings in early 2014;\u00a0Buster Olney<\/strong>‘s being done<\/a>\u00a0before the Masahiro Tanaka signing and\u00a0David Schoenfield<\/strong>‘s just afterwards<\/a>. \u00a0 SportsonEarth’s\u00a0Jonathan Bernhardt<\/strong>\u00a0contributed his list<\/a>\u00a0as well. \u00a0\u00a0Matthew Pouliet<\/strong>‘s\u00a0Rotoworld player projection-based ranking<\/a>\u00a0is here and it looks pretty good. \u00a0\u00a0Their top 10s, for comparison purposes to mine, were as follows:<\/p>\n