{"id":8909,"date":"2014-11-05T16:56:15","date_gmt":"2014-11-05T21:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8909"},"modified":"2014-11-13T09:04:05","modified_gmt":"2014-11-13T14:04:05","slug":"my-2014-end-of-season-awards-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=8909","title":{"rendered":"My 2014 End-of-Season Awards Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_4790\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/TroutMike_atbat-Gary-Vasquez-US-Presswire-via-espn.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4790\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4790\" alt=\"No more excuses; Trout has more than earned his MVP.  Photo Gary Vasquez\/US Presswire via espn.com\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/TroutMike_atbat-Gary-Vasquez-US-Presswire-via-espn.com_.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-4790\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">No more excuses; Trout has more than earned his MVP. Photo Gary Vasquez\/US Presswire via espn.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>First draft of this post: May 8th, 2014, just 5 weeks into the season, with the announcements of <a href=\"http:\/\/mlb.mlb.com\/mlb\/awards\/players_of_the_month.jsp\">MLB players of the month<\/a> and early MVP watch columns from national baseball writers . \u00a0<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>My Predictions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NL MVP<\/span>: Kershaw over Stanton, McCutchen and Lucroy<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NL Cy Young<\/span>: Kershaw over Cueto and Wainwright<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NL Rookie<\/span>: deGrom over Hamilton<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NL Manager<\/span>: Bochy over Roenicke<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AL MVP<\/span>: Trout over Victor Martinez, Cano, Abreu and Cruz.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AL Cy Young<\/span>: Felix, barely over Kluber, Sale, others.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AL Rookie<\/span>: Abreu over Tanaka, Shoemaker, Ventura, and others.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">AL Manager<\/span>: Showalter over McLendon, Yost.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, how did the major awards evolve this year?\u00a0 Read below for a running diary of the front runners for each major award.\u00a0 It makes for a fascinating read of the season.\u00a0 By my sense, the awards kind of went like this from April to September:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NL MVP: Tulowitzki early, then Stanton, maybe McCutchen, then Kershaw, back to Stanton and finally Kershaw with Stanton&#8217;s injury.<\/li>\n<li>NL Cy Young: Cueto at the start, Jose Fernandez til he got hurt, then Bumgarner, Wainwright, then clearly Kershaw.<\/li>\n<li>NL Rookie: Chris Owings, then Wong, then Hamilton, maybe Polanco, suddenly deGrom.<\/li>\n<li>AL MVP: Abreu then Bautista, Encarnacion, Cruz, then Trout, no doubt.\u00a0 Everyone else racing for #2.<\/li>\n<li>AL Cy Young: Sonny Grey, then Scherzer, then Buehrle, then Felix, maybe Kluber, down to wire.<\/li>\n<li>AL Rookie: Abreu, then Tanaka, Ventura, then clearly Abreu with Tanaka&#8217;s injury.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ahead of this post, some non MLB-affiliated awards have been given out.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Matt Williams<\/strong> was named The Sporting News&#8217; <a href=\"http:\/\/m.nationals.mlb.com\/news\/article\/99153684\/nationals-matt-williams-named-sporting-news-top-nl-manager\">NL Manager of the Year<\/a>, which readers here probably laugh at considering the mess he made of his pitching decisions in the NLDS.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Craig Kimbrel<\/strong> and <strong>Greg Holland<\/strong> won the <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2014\/10\/22\/craig-kimbrel-wins-trevor-hoffman-award-greg-holland-wins-mariano-rivera-award\/\">NL and AL reliever of the year awards<\/a>, named after <strong>Trevor Hoffman<\/strong> and <strong>Mariano Rivera<\/strong> respectively.<\/li>\n<li>The Gold Gloves were announced\u00a0 yesterday: you&#8217;d have to be crazy to try to predict those \ud83d\ude42<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">This year, instead of printing links to writers early and mid-season predictions, I&#8217;ll just throw those links into the monthly reviews for context.\u00a0\u00a0 This post is more like a season-long diary of the evolution of these awards; the sections were written in each month as the season progressed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><br \/>\nApril<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<p>Players-of-the-month in April do not very frequently win MVPs, Cy Youngs or Rookie of the Year awards, but we may see a surprise in 2014 thanks to some big-time performances. \u00a0But here&#8217;s where we stand after the first month.<\/p>\n<p>Opinions this month:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/mlb\/news\/20140501\/awards-watch-lightning-round\/index.html\">Corcoran<\/a>\u00a0on early candidates.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0<strong>Troy Tulowitzki,\u00a0Giancarlo Stanton<\/strong> in the NL. \u00a0Colorado&#8217;s <strong>Charlie Blackmon<\/strong> deserves mention for his amazing April.\u00a0\u00a0<strong>Jose Abreu<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Jose Bautista<\/strong> in the AL (with apologies to perennial contenders <strong>Miguel<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Cabrera<\/strong> and <strong>Mike<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Trout<\/strong>, both of whom started slow).<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0<strong>Johnny Cueto<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Jose Fernandez<\/strong> in the NL. \u00a0<strong>Sonny Grey<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Max Scherzer<\/strong> in the AL.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rookie of the year candidates<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0<strong>Chris Owings<\/strong> in the NL,\u00a0<strong>Jose Abreu<\/strong> in the AL. \u00a0<strong>Masahiro Tanaka<\/strong> could make some noise in the AL though for sure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>May<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<p>Opinions this month: <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/writers\/cliff_corcoran\/archive\/\">Corcoran&#8217;s musings<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/mlb\/news\/20140522\/awards-watch-rookie-of-the-year-masahiro-tanaka-yangervis-solarte-jose-abreu\/index.html\">throughout<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/mlb\/news\/20140529\/awards-watch-mvp-troy-tulowitzki-nelson-cruz\/index.html\">the <\/a>month. \u00a0Stark&#8217;s &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/10963449\/first-quarter-mlb-awards\">First Quarter<\/a>&#8221; awards. \u00a0BaseballMusing&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/baseballmusings.com\/?p=100557\">Cy Young Tracker analysis<\/a>.\u00a0 <strong>Scott Lindholm<\/strong>&#8216;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.beyondtheboxscore.com\/2014\/6\/9\/5789108\/2014-al-mvp-nl-mvp-predictions-baseball\">two month predictor<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong><\/span>: Still Tulowitzki in the NL (he has a full 1.0 WAR lead midway through the month and had accumulated 4 WAR just six weeks into the season! \u00a0Even more impressive; he&#8217;s hitting ABOVE .500 at home thus far), but Stanton has also been on fire (as my fantasy team can attest). \u00a0<strong>Yasiel Puig<\/strong>\u00a0may be a lightening rod, but he&#8217;s also one of the best players in the NL and has put his name into the NL MVP conversation by winning player of the month.. \u00a0\u00a0<strong>Jody Donaldson<\/strong> has been on fire in the AL and is getting some notice, but also so has <strong>Nelson Cruz<\/strong>, who may be the best FA signing of the off-season.\u00a0\u00a0Abreu went on the D\/L. \u00a0Bautista remains the best offensive WAR player in the AL. \u00a0But by months&#8217; end Trout was near the top of the WAR list despite a &#8220;slump.&#8221; \u00a0<strong>Edwin Encarnacion<\/strong> cannot stop hitting and is leading Toronto to a big lead in the AL East, and won player of the month in the AL for May, but i&#8217;m doubtful he&#8217;ll eventually figure in the MVP race.<br \/>\n<strong> <\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong><\/span>: Cueto still leads in the\u00a0NL when early front-runner Fernandez goes down to TJ Surgery, despite the Nats tagging him for 8 runs in a mid-May game. \u00a0<strong>Adam Wainwright<\/strong> is quietly having an excellent season, as is <strong>Zack Greinke<\/strong>. \u00a0<strong>Jeff Samardzija<\/strong>\u00a0might be the best pitcher of them all but still has zero wins thanks to the vagarities of the Win statistic (that and his team&#8217;s purposelly awful offense). \u00a0<strong>Madison Bumgarner<\/strong> won May pitcher of the month, but doesn&#8217;t seem like he&#8217;s nearly as dominant as the other pitchers mentioned here. \u00a0Lastly we need to mention <strong>Tim Hudson<\/strong>&#8216;s great start. \u00a0Scherzer and Tanaka still involved in the AL race, but\u00a0<strong>Mark Buehrle<\/strong>&#8216;s turn-back-the-clock season is gaining notice and Houston&#8217;s\u00a0<strong>Dallas Keuchel<\/strong> is having an amazing season for the 110 loss Astros. \u00a0 Meanwhile\u00a0<strong>Felix Hernandez<\/strong> is quietly dominant, posting an 8-1 record out in Seattle. \u00a0And\u00a0<strong>Yu Darvish<\/strong> is basically unhittable (as the Nats learned in late May).<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rookie of the year<\/strong><\/span> <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>candidates<\/strong><\/span>: Owings remains in the lead in the NL among little competition pending expected mid-season callups (Corcoran&#8217;s May #2 is Atlanta&#8217;s <strong>David Hale<\/strong>, who was demoted to the bullpen after 4 starts when\u00a0<strong>Gavin Floyd<\/strong> was ready to go), but <strong>Kolten Wong<\/strong>&#8216;s showing has his name in the discussion (he was May&#8217;s MLB rookie of the month).\u00a0\u00a0 Abreu hit the D\/L (and his numbers may be impressive from a power stand point but little else), while Tanaka continues his dominance and takes over the AL lead. \u00a0Meanwhile the amazing arm of\u00a0<strong>Yordano Ventura<\/strong> pokes his head into this race &#8230; and then he got hit with injury. \u00a0But the new leader in the AL RoY clubhouse may very well be Houston&#8217;s\u00a0<strong>George Springer<\/strong>, who hit seven homers in 7 games in late May and is on pace for 40 as a rookie.<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>June<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Opinions: Lindholm&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.beyondtheboxscore.com\/2014\/6\/16\/5804678\/early-rookie-of-the-year-predictions\">early Rookie of the Year look<\/a>. \u00a0Lindholm&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.beyondtheboxscore.com\/2014\/6\/12\/5796738\/cy-young-predictions-2014-felix-herrnandez-adam-wainwright-baseball\">Cy Young Predictions<\/a>\u00a0(except that he focuses entirely on advanced pitching stats that, lets face it, the voter-base doesn&#8217;t care about). \u00a0Corcoran <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/mlb\/news\/20140612\/awards-watch-rookie-of-the-year-masahiro-tanaka-jose-abreu-chris-owings\/index.html\">take on the Rookies<\/a>. \u00a0Corcoran update on <a href=\"http:\/\/sportsillustrated.cnn.com\/mlb\/news\/20140619\/awards-watch-mvp-races\/index.html\">MVP race<\/a>. \u00a0Passan&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/10-degrees--handing-out-mlb-s-first-half-awards-004511149.html\">half-year awards<\/a> column. \u00a0Brisbee <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sbnation.com\/mlb\/2014\/6\/30\/5857690\/midseason-mvp-cy-young-american-league\">mid-season AL Awards<\/a>\u00a0and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sbnation.com\/mlb\/2014\/7\/3\/5868461\/midseason-mvp-cy-young-national-league\">mid-season NL-Awards<\/a> (which he thinks are stupid :-). \u00a0MLB <a href=\"http:\/\/www.minorleagueball.com\/2014\/7\/3\/5867907\/billy-hamilton-jose-abreu-named-rookies-of-the-month-reds-white-sox\">June Rookies of the month<\/a> announcement.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong><\/span>: Still Tulowitzki in the lead in the NL, though Stanton probably finishes in the top 3 thanks to his first ever healthy season enabling him to chase 50 homers. \u00a0Puig has cooled a bit. \u00a0<strong>Jonathan Lucroy<\/strong> has thrown his name into top-5 consideration thanks to his great offensive season tacked on top of his great defensive prownesses. \u00a0And last years&#8217; MVP <strong>Andrew McCutchen<\/strong> has thrown his name into the ring with a great June and the MLB player of the month award.\u00a0 In the AL, Trout&#8217;s consistency has giving him the lead over AL east bashers Bautista and Cruz (and he won MLB&#8217;s MVP for June). \u00a0 Tanaka will probably get top 5 votes but won&#8217;t win; see the Cy Young section for a statement on his &#8220;rookie&#8221; season. \u00a0One can only hope that a down year (thus far) for Cabrera will finally eliminate the narrative-driven voting for him over Trout that has occurred the last two years; Trout&#8217;s numbers right now eclipse his numbers in his first two years. \u00a0Meanwhile you have to start giving\u00a0<strong>Jose Altuve<\/strong> some props: at the half-way point of the season he&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=al&amp;qual=y&amp;type=1&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=10,d\">leading the AL<\/a> in Batting Average, Hits and Stolen Bases, each by a considerable margin. \u00a0I&#8217;d have him in my top5.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong><\/span>: Wainwright has overtaken Cueto for the NL lead right now, but if Kershaw keeps throwing scoreless innings (he&#8217;s on a streak of 28 as of the time of this writing), he&#8217;ll move into the lead (MLB just gave Kershaw pitcher of the month for June). \u00a0 <strong>Julio Teheran<\/strong> probably earns a top-5 spot thanks to his breakout season. \u00a0And one <strong>Jake Arrieta<\/strong> has added his name to the mix thanks to his pretty amazing turnaround in Chicago. \u00a0In the AL, Tanaka still leads King Felix, with Texas-based hurlers Darvish and Keuchel knocking on the door but slightly cooling. \u00a0But Felix was named AL&#8217;s June pitcher of the month and would be a no-brainer if he didn&#8217;t have the West Coast anti-bias working against him.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Rookie of the year<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>candidates<\/strong><\/span>: \u00a0In the NL, no candidates are really distinguishing themselves. Right now Owings remains in the WAR lead over\u00a0<strong>Billy Hamilton<\/strong> (who was named Rookie of the Month for June and is in the lead right now)\u00a0but neither player is that inspiring. \u00a0 However the eventual favorite may have finally gotten his callup in <strong>Gregory Polanco<\/strong>. \u00a0Meanwhile the AL race almost certainly is looking like a 1-2 International FA contest between Tanaka and Abreu, with Tanaka easily winning right now (though Abreu won June&#8217;s Rookie of the Month award). \u00a0There&#8217;s almost no reason to mention anyone else, which is unfair to Houston&#8217;s budding stars\u00a0George Springer and\u00a0<strong>Jon Singleton<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Comeback Player of the Year<\/strong><\/span>: This award always flies under the radar, but we have a couple of decent candidates getting some mention. \u00a0In the NL, \u00a0<strong>Casey McGehee<\/strong> was run out of the MLB thanks to injuries and awful hitting in 2012; after a dominant year in Japan he&#8217;s having a nice bounce-back for Miami. \u00a0And, after just 8 awful starts in 2013, LA&#8217;s\u00a0<strong>Josh Beckett<\/strong>\u00a0is looking pretty dominant so far this year. \u00a0<strong>Tim Hudson<\/strong>&#8216;s come-back year after his gruesome ankle injury earns some mentions. \u00a0 The AL version is harder to find candidates: Passan mentions\u00a0<strong>Joakim Soria<\/strong> and\u00a0<strong>Phil Hughes<\/strong> as early candidates. \u00a0I like Hughes; 4-14 with a 5+ ERA last year who is having success this year.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Managers of the Year<\/strong><\/span>: at the halfway point, we can start to see some clarity in the Manager of the Year (also known as the &#8220;guy in charge of the team that has the most shocking W\/L record award.&#8221; \u00a0Right now we&#8217;re we&#8217;re looking at\u00a0<strong>Bob Melvin<\/strong>, manager of Oakland and their best-in-the-majors 81-game record in the AL and (easily right now)\u00a0<strong>Ron Roenicke<\/strong>, who is leading the surprising Milwaukee Brewers to the best record in the NL at the halfway point.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>July<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Opinions: Stark &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/11196121\/first-half-mlb-award-winners\">First Half Winners<\/a>.&#8221; \u00a0<strong>Jonah Keri<\/strong> &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/grantland.com\/features\/2014-mlb-midseason-awards-revised-predictions\/\">Midseason Report<\/a>.&#8221; \u00a0Schoenfield&#8217;s &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/blog\/sweetspot\/post\/_\/id\/50192\/nl-mvp-race-most-wide-open-in-years\">NL MVP is wide open<\/a>&#8221; post.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong>: In the NL, Colorado&#8217;s waning playoff chances are knocking down Tulowitzki&#8217;s chances, while Stanton continues to produce staggering offensive numbers. \u00a0 Meanwhile McCutchen is coming on strong and may lead Pittsburgh on a 2nd half run. \u00a0In the AL, the Angels success finally ends the 3-year running narrative based arguments that have prevented Trout from winning an MVP. \u00a0At this point, if he doesn&#8217;t win, its because some bloc of writers has conspired against him. \u00a0Batista and Cruz continue to be 2-3 on my ballot. \u00a0At the end of the month, Trout leads the majors in bWAR with Tulowitzki not far behind.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong>: In the NL, it is looking like Wainwright versus Kershaw. \u00a0Wainwright in the lead now, but Kershaw&#8217;s dominance may carry him to the title by the end of the year. \u00a0In the AL; Felix Hernandez has overtaken Tanaka, who hit the D\/L with a partially torn UCL that may force him into Tommy John. \u00a0<strong>Chris Sale<\/strong> has put his name into contention as the #3 candidate right now. \u00a0Kershaw\/Fernandez are 1\/2 in bWAR at the end of the month.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rookie of the year<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>candidates<\/strong>: \u00a0In the NL, Hamilton still holds off Polanco, but the Pittsburgh rookie has been great since his call up. \u00a0Check back on this race later. \u00a0In the AL, Tanaka&#8217;s D\/L trip also may cost him his unanimous Rookie of the Year award, which now goes to the 1-A candidate Abreu. \u00a0No one else is close; If I had to guess who was #3 in this race, i&#8217;d go Springer.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Comeback Player of the Year<\/strong>: Still looking like Hudson and Hughes for now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Managers of the Year<\/strong>: Still Roenicke and Melvin for now. \u00a0There&#8217;s no other obvious candidates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>August<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Opinions: Calcaterra on <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2014\/08\/05\/so-whos-the-favorite-for-nl-mvp-now\">who is MVP<\/a>. \u00a0A list of most <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/blogs\/the-most-improved-players-thus-far-by-projected-war-2\/\">improved players by WAR<\/a>\u00a0in mid-August.\u00a0(which should be a good way to talk about Comeback players, except that it really is just highlighting former role players who are having great \u00a0years). \u00a0<strong>Paul Swydan<\/strong> talked about the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/blogs\/can-giancarlo-stanton-steal-the-national-league-mvp\/\">NL MVP vote<\/a> in mid-August.\u00a0 Keith Law&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/blog\/keith-law\/post\/_\/id\/2761\/my-early-award-winners-top-contenders\">mid-august preview of the awards<\/a>.\u00a0 Crasnick&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/sportsnation\/chat\/_\/id\/51043\/mlb-with-jerry-crasnick\">8\/25\/14 chat<\/a> talking about AL Manager of the Year candidates.\u00a0 Bowden&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/blog\/the-gms-office\/post\/_\/id\/10145\/bowdens-rookie-rankings-2?refresh=true\">rookie Rankings<\/a> from late august.\u00a0 HardballTalkDaily video says the <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2014\/08\/29\/hbt-daily-the-rookie-of-the-year-races-are-pretty-clear-cut\/\">Rookie races are pretty clear cut<\/a> on 8\/29\/14.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong>:\u00a0<strong>Jayson Werth<\/strong> was named July NL player of the month, but seems like a long shot to get anything other than 5th place MVP votes. \u00a0 Meanwhile previous leaders Tulowitzki AND now McCutchen are both on the D\/L and missing at least a month each, so questions abound. \u00a0Is Puig the front runner now? \u00a0Stanton? \u00a0A pitcher? \u00a0At this point it may end up being Kershaw thanks to some deficiencies in the cases of both these healthy candidates, except that Kershaw missed quite a few starts and many voters won&#8217;t even give him the Cy Young nod as a result.\u00a0 And there&#8217;s the small fact that apparently sportswriters are starting to place <strong>Barry Bonds<\/strong>-level hatred on Puig (I heard a 3rd-party story that does not flatter Puig in the least in terms of his attitude and self-opinion, so this does not shock me).\u00a0 Abreu earned his second AL Player of the Month but seems like a long shot to beat out Trout at this point; the Angels seem set to make the playoffs, removing the &#8220;narrative&#8221; that has prevented Trout from being the MVP in years past.\u00a0 In fact, the 2nd best candidate in the AL may very well be Felix Hernandez, who won&#8217;t win on some ballots because he&#8217;s a pitcher.\u00a0 <strong>Alex Gordon<\/strong> is starting to get some MVP notice, thanks to his leadership on the suddenly-playoff-bound Royals.\u00a0 I see him as a good top-5 candidate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong>: In the NL, Kershaw has earned his second NL pitcher of the month award and (despite missing several starts) seems like a lock to win another Cy Young award. \u00a0Meanwhile in the AL, Grey has earned another pitcher of the month award, but Hernandez and Sale seem to be 1-2 in this race as long as Tanaka stays on the shelf. \u00a0\u00a0<strong>Corey Kluber<\/strong> has put together a great season, but he&#8217;s chasing Hernandez for 2nd place right now.<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Rookie of the year<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>candidates<\/strong>: \u00a0In the NL, Mets starter\u00a0<strong>Jacob deGrom<\/strong> has put his name into the hat thanks to a slew of dominant starts, and was just named July rookie of the month. \u00a0In a weak field, he could push to a victory.\u00a0 But no sooner did he win the monthly award than go down to injury, likely cementing the award for Hamilton.\u00a0 In the AL, not only was Abreu named rookie of the month, he was also named player of the month. \u00a0The longer Tanaka stays on the D\/L, the more Abreu solidifies his hold on this award.\u00a0 <strong>Brandon Shoemaker<\/strong> quietly has a 13-4 season for the Angels but may not even broach the top 5 in voting, thanks to the huge glut of quality AL rookies this year.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Comeback Player of the Year<\/strong>: Still looking like Hudson and Hughes for now.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Managers of the Year<\/strong>: In the AL, surprising runs by the Mariners, Orioles and Royals have their three managers (respectively, <strong>Lloyd McClendon<\/strong>, <strong>Buck Showalter<\/strong> and <strong>Ned<\/strong> <strong>Yost<\/strong>) will get some attention.\u00a0 In the NL, I still think Milwaukee&#8217;s turn-around keeps Ron Roenicke in the lead.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>September<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>You know its starting to get close to silly season; lots of opinion pieces start popping up right after labor day.: Brisbee&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sbnation.com\/mlb\/2014\/9\/2\/6095433\/national-league-awards-mlb-mvp-cy-young-rookie-of-the-year\">&#8220;handicapping&#8221; of the NL awards<\/a> on 9\/1\/14 and the same for the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sbnation.com\/mlb\/2014\/9\/3\/6098541\/american-league-awards-mvp-voting-cy-young\">AL awards two days later<\/a>.\u00a0 Schoenfield&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/blog\/sweetspot\/post\/_\/id\/51077\/jason-heyward-stealth-mvp-candidate\">Heyward for MVP<\/a> article 9\/2\/14.\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/11451568\/national-league-awards\">NL awards video<\/a> from Schoenfield 9\/2\/14.\u00a0 USAtoday&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/2014\/09\/mlb-mvp-cy-young-award-rookie-of-the-year-2014-trout\">early Sept Awards preview<\/a>.\u00a0 Jim Bowden pops up for <a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/blog\/the-gms-office\/post?id=10170\">Executive of the Year<\/a> predictions.\u00a0 Schoenfield <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/blog\/sweetspot\/post\/_\/id\/51352\/mccutchen-right-up-there-with-trout\">extolling McCutchen&#8217;s credentials<\/a> in mid September.\u00a0 <strong>Cory DiBenedetto<\/strong> at GammonsDaily talking about the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.gammonsdaily.com\/al-rookie-of-the-year-outlook\/\"> AL RoY<\/a> and then the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gammonsdaily.com\/nl-rookie-of-the-year-outlook\/\">NL RoY<\/a>.\u00a0 Passan&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/sports.yahoo.com\/news\/10-degrees--it-s-awards-time--so-that-means-it-s-time-to-talk-about-mike-trout-170429256.html\">late Sept award column<\/a>.\u00a0 Jayson Stark&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/mlb\/story\/_\/id\/11582879\/end-season-mlb-awards-pair-clayton-kershaw\">final prediction<\/a> column.\u00a0 Anthony Castrovince&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sportsonearth.com\/article\/96453278\/mlb-awards-clayton-kershaw-felix-hernandez-corey-kluber\">prediction column<\/a>.\u00a0 Schoenfield&#8217;s &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/blog\/sweetspot\/post\/_\/id\/51812\/looking-at-the-best-rookies-of-2014\">best rookies<\/a>&#8221; column.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>MVP candidates<\/strong>: In the NL, it was looking more and more like Stanton&#8217;s continued massive offensive season was driving the narrative towards his getting the MVP.\u00a0 However, an awful-looking HBP likely ended Stanton&#8217;s season on 9\/11\/14 &#8230; will those lost two weeks prevent him from taking the top spot now?\u00a0 It seems so; I&#8217;m predicting Kershaw wins both MVP and Cy Young.\u00a0 A pitcher hasn&#8217;t gotten the NL Cy Young in more than 40\u00a0 years.\u00a0 The NL WAR leader-board shows the problem with using WAR as a projection tool of MVP (as Brisbee&#8217;s column points out:\u00a0there&#8217;s just no way that NL positional player bWAR leader <strong>Jason Heyward<\/strong> is getting the MVP no matter how much you believe in defensive stats.\u00a0 <strong>Buster Posey<\/strong>&#8216;s huge summer has put his name into the hat for top-5 candidates.\u00a0 Speaking of top-5 candidates, do you put <strong>Anthony Rendon<\/strong> into that discussion?\u00a0 In the AL, there&#8217;s just no way Trout doesn&#8217;t get the award this year, so we&#8217;ll discuss runners-up later on.\u00a0 Brisbee seems to think <strong>Robinson Cano<\/strong> will somehow sneak into the discussion but I don&#8217;t think so.\u00a0 <strong>Victor Martinez<\/strong>&#8216;s excellent\/no-frills offensive season should have him getting some top-5 love.\u00a0 <strong>Michael Brantley<\/strong> looks to earn some top 5 votes too.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cy Young candidates<\/strong>: In the NL, Kershaw has solidified his hold on the award.\u00a0 The better question may be whether he also wins the MVP.\u00a0 In the AL I think its safe to say Hernandez-Kluber go 1-2, though a September swoon may cost Felix votes.\u00a0 It could get really close.\u00a0 Expecially after Felix got pounded on 9\/23\/14 in his 2nd to last start.\u00a0 <strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Rookie of the year<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>candidates<\/strong>: In a weak NL field, DeGrom&#8217;s fantastic 2nd half seems to be pushing him over the top of the obvious candidate for most of the\u00a0 year in Hamilton. \u00a0 <strong>Kyle Hendricks<\/strong> may get top 5 votes.\u00a0 In the AL, it has to be Abreu, likely unanimously unless a couple of NYC writers do the homer-vote for Tanaka.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Comeback Player of the Year<\/strong>: Still looking like Hudson and Hughes, but this award is unpredictable.\u00a0 Passan&#8217;s late Sept column points out a couple of NL candidates to consider, since Hudson&#8217;s ERA cratered in the 2nd half.\u00a0 <strong>Casey McGhee<\/strong> returned from Japanese exile to have a great season, and <strong>Justin Morneau<\/strong> has come back from the DFA heap to nearly lead the NL in batting.\u00a0 In the AL one should also consider former Nats AAA pitcher <strong>Chris Young<\/strong>, who has absolutely come back from nowhere to stay healthy an entire\u00a0 year.\u00a0 He should write the Nats a thank-you card for giving him a paycheck to rehab on our dime.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Managers of the Year<\/strong>:\u00a0 I can&#8217;t see the writers giving Manager of the year awards to a team like Washington (which was expected to win) nor the Angels (which has a monster payroll and the best player in the game).\u00a0 It may be someone like <strong>Bruce Bochy<\/strong> in the NL, who has overcome the loss of his two marquee pitchers and a slew of curious signings to keep the Giants in playoff contention.\u00a0 In the AL, perhaps Showalter deserves some mention for what he&#8217;s done in Baltimore &#8230; but then again, have we ever seen an AL east meltdown top to bottom like we&#8217;re seeing this year?\u00a0\u00a0 More and more i&#8217;m liking what Showalter is doing with Baltimore and a relatively unknown pitching staff and a ton of injuries.\u00a0 <strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; First draft of this post: May 8th, 2014, just 5 weeks into the season, with the announcements of MLB players of the month and early MVP watch columns from national baseball writers . \u00a0 My Predictions: NL MVP: Kershaw over Stanton, McCutchen and Lucroy NL Cy Young: Kershaw over Cueto and Wainwright NL Rookie: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2667,6],"tags":[346,424,2040,2654,1687,1174,1169,426,1957,407,795,2653,890,2652,2017,2655,2166,456,2622,358,1167,284,1589,2232],"class_list":["post-8909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-awards","category-nonnatsbaseball","tag-adam-wainwright","tag-andrew-mccutchen","tag-billy-hamilton","tag-brandon-shoemaker","tag-bruce-bochy","tag-buck-showalter","tag-chris-sale","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-corey-kluber","tag-felix-hernandez","tag-giancarlo-stanton","tag-jacob-degrom","tag-johnny-cueto","tag-jonathan-lucroy","tag-jose-abreu","tag-lloyd-mcclendon","tag-masahiro-tanaka","tag-mike-trout","tag-ned-yost","tag-nelson-cruz","tag-robinson-cano","tag-ron-roenicke","tag-victor-martinez","tag-yordano-ventura"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8909"}],"version-history":[{"count":63,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8909\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9950,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8909\/revisions\/9950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}