{"id":9311,"date":"2014-06-11T08:13:53","date_gmt":"2014-06-11T12:13:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9311"},"modified":"2014-07-18T07:27:31","modified_gmt":"2014-07-18T11:27:31","slug":"first-look-nats-top-10-draftees-from-2014-rule-4-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9311","title":{"rendered":"First Look: Nats top 10 draftees from 2014 Rule-4 Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Suarez<\/a>

Suarez is the Nats 2nd round pick. Photo via 247sports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

As we did last year<\/a>, here’s a quick introduction to the Nats top 10 picks for 2014.<\/p>\n

A quick glance on our high-end draftees from 2014 draft. \u00a0I\u2019ll put in the rankings from several prospect ranking shops (Keith Law<\/a>,\u00a0<\/strong>Baseball America<\/a>, MLB.com<\/a> and MinorLeagueBall<\/a>). \u00a0overall player ranking after the player name where appropriate (though as we\u2019ll see, Keith\u2019s top 100 quickly runs out of names). \u00a0Here’s a link to the draft order<\/a>, and here’s a link to MLB.com’s fantastic draft tracker<\/a> database for reference.<\/p>\n

As he did last year, NatsGM.com<\/a>‘s Ryan Sullivan<\/strong> is live-blogging and does a great job of pulling up stats on each of our picks.\u00a0 I depend on his reports as well as those from the four links above to give a quick overview of our draftees.<\/p>\n

Note: I wrote most of this over the weekend as the guys were picked; we’re already hearing plenty of rumors about signings.\u00a0 I havn’t updated this post with such intel but I’m sure its readily available from Ladson and Kilgore and the like.<\/p>\n

1st round\/#18 overall<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0Erick Fedde<\/strong>, UNLV RHP (Law #27\/BA #24\/MLB #33\/MinorLeagueBall #70). \u00a0Most of the credible mock drafts had the Nats drafting Fedde here, and that’s exactly what happened. \u00a0In my quickie preview post<\/a>, I thought Fedde would be an overdraft and hoped that either Tyler Beede<\/strong> or\u00a0Brandon Finnegan<\/strong> would drop. \u00a0Well, Beede went 14th and Finnegan went 17th. \u00a0I liked\u00a0Touki Toussant<\/strong> as well as a prep HS that may drop to the Nats, but he went 16th. \u00a0 I’m not sure I agree with pundits who say that Fedde was a “top 10 talent” prior to his injury; I still think this is an overdraft on Fedde given the fact that he’s rehabbing a blown UCL. \u00a0Look at the placement of Fedde on the four prospect ranking shops; that’s an awful lot of trust being placed into the hands of the surgeon, the rehab process, and the recovery. \u00a0That being said, looking at the next several players picked, there wasn’t a name that really stood out as someone that I would have rather had who at the same time was a prototypical Mike Rizzo<\/strong> pick \u00a0Maybe Connor Gillaspie<\/strong> would have worked (he went #20). \u00a0Ryan Sullivan<\/strong> thinks we got a steal here<\/a>; i’m not so sure. \u00a0I think the Nats were looking at their board while the Giants were picking at #14, and then had their next best three names get snatched out from under them, leaving them taking a gamble on Fedde.<\/p>\n

On the player himself; Fedde is tall (6’4″) but *skinny* (listed at between 165 and 180), sits 91-93 and touched 95 with excellent movement. \u00a0Secondary pitches can flatten out because of his lower arm slot, but he’s listed with a decent slider and decent change. \u00a0 ESPN thinks he projects a 65 fastball and a 60 slider but needs to work on his command. \u00a0Very preliminary ceiling\/projection is as a mid-rotation starter. \u00a0 The thought is that he can fill out his frame and add velocity, though he’s done neither in his three college years.<\/p>\n

He’s a Scott Boras<\/b> client, he was a HS teammate of\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/strong>, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels. \u00a0It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde. \u00a0In reality, I’ll bet the war room was rather dejected watching the three a-forementioned pitchers drop off the board in the 4 preceding picks to #18.<\/p>\n

2nd round\/#57 overall<\/span>:\u00a0Andrew Suarez<\/strong>, LHP from U-Miami (Law out of top 100\/BA #75\/MLB #86\/MinorLeagueBall #103). \u00a0 A re-draft (he was picked in the 9th round out of HS but chose to go to school), he suffered a torn labrum early in his college career but reportedly picked up velocity this past season and held it through most of the year. \u00a0 Law alludes to other medical issues that clearly had him down on Suarez (Law ranked him lowest of my 4 resources). \u00a0He spent the year as Miami’s saturday starter (aka, their #2 starter). \u00a0BA mentioned him in their draft preview specifically because of his fantastic control; he had just a 1.34 BB\/9 rate despite throwing a low 90s fastball that can reach 95. \u00a0He pitched a shut-out in game 1 of the Coral Gables regional, a 7-hit, 10K, 0 walk<\/a>\u00a0outing that matched his career high; nice way to finish off your college career (Miami was elminated from CWS play before Suarez could throw again). \u00a0 Scouting reports say he profiles as a 4th starter. \u00a0(Note: my fingers just automatically typed Luis Suarez<\/strong>, aka Liverpool and Uruguay’s striker. \u00a0Part of me is in World Cup mode already).<\/p>\n

3rd round\/#93 overall<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0Jakson Reetz<\/strong>, prep Catcher from Nebraska (#38\/#62\/#40\/#36). \u00a0 A prep catcher isn’t who you normally expect to see this high on the National’s draft results, but his pre-draft rankings show that he’s clearly a steal at the mid-3rd round. \u00a0The question is; is he signable here? \u00a0$567k is his bonus slot figure; he might be a tough sign unless the Nats have a pre-draft deal with Fedde to save some money for a guy like Reetz. \u00a0 His pedigree is good: MVP of the PG all-american game, member of the same world champion U-18 team that #1 overall pick Brady Aiken<\/strong> was on. \u00a0 In prep games he was showing 91 from the mound and reportedly has a great arm, but some scouting reports say he may struggle to stay behind the plate. \u00a0As pointed out by NatsGM.com’s\u00a0Ryan Sullivan<\/strong>,\u00a0<\/strong>BA did a “day in the life<\/a>” piece on Reetz that is worth checking out; once you watch this you’ll really like Reetz. \u00a0Last note: Keith Law even likes the pick<\/a> and says he’ll sign.<\/p>\n

4th round\/#124 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Robbie Dickie<\/strong>, juco RHP from Blinn college in Texas (na\/210\/179\/173). \u00a095-97 on the gun, led his team to the Juco World Series, but he may project as a reliever thanks to questionable mechanics. \u00a0 Quite a pop-up guy, but an over draft based on the rankings in the major publications. \u00a0He’s committed to Texas State if he doesn’t sign, which isn’t exactly a baseball powerhouse, so is this a value\/slot saving pick?<\/p>\n

5th Round\/ #154 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Drew Van Orden<\/strong>, a senior RHP from Duke (na\/395\/na\/na). \u00a0Good numbers on the year as Duke’s Friday starter (6-5, 3.19 ERA<\/a>, more than a k\/inning). \u00a0He finished off his college career with a 5-hit complete game shutout over Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament, Duke’s only win in their post-season tournament. \u00a0I like his pedigree despite the fact that he’s a senior 5th round pick with zero leverage. \u00a0Who are the Nats saving all this money for?\u00a0 Update: Van Orden quickly signed<\/a>, terms undisclosed.<\/p>\n

6th Round\/#184 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Austen Williams<\/strong>, junior RHP from Texas State ( na\/#276\/na\/na). \u00a0Nats clearly saw something in Williams that other draft pundits did not; even MinorLeagueBall (who ranked to 350) didn’t have him listed. \u00a0Texas State’s friday starter continues a long trend of the Nats plucking talent out of Texas. \u00a0Williams posted solid numbers as Texas State’s Friday starter (8-3, 3.65 era<\/a>, good K\/9 rates). \u00a0I’m sure he’ll take a bit more than slot to sign, but the Nats should have some pennies saved.<\/p>\n

7th Round\/#214 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Dale (D.K.) Kerry<\/strong>, a senior Center fielder from the U of Miami (na\/#332\/na\/#133). \u00a0MLB’s scouting report on him says he’s a great athlete and he has a “4th outfielder” projection. \u00a0Sounds like the perfect senior 7th round draft pick to me (sarcasm). \u00a0Ryan Sullivan is more bullish<\/a> on him than I.<\/p>\n

8th Round\/#244 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Jeff Gardner, <\/strong>senior corner OF from Louisville (na\/498\/na\/na).\u00a0 He may be a senior, but he’s also the clean-up hitter for a CWS-bound team and had great stats on the year (.321\/.403\/.538<\/a> with 9 homers). \u00a0 Not a bad find for the 8th round.<\/p>\n

9th Round\/#274 overall<\/strong><\/span>: Austin Byler<\/strong>, junior 1B from Nevada (94\/123\/166\/271).\u00a0 Well, now we see why the Nats are saving their pennies; getting Byler here is a find.\u00a0 He should have been taken in the 3rd or 4th round if you believe the pundits, and he may take an over-slot deal to buy him out of his senior year.\u00a0 He’s got serious power<\/a> (he led his conference in homers and is an offensive threat) and would be a great find if he signs.<\/p>\n

10th Round\/#304 overall<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0Matthew Page<\/strong>, senior RF from Oklahoma Baptist (na\/na\/na\/na).\u00a0 A d-2 pick for a team that a) loves guys from the south west already and b) has shown itself more than willing to gamble on non D-I players.\u00a0 I can’t imagine he’ll be expensive to sign.\u00a0 He’s also the first player the Nats have picked that didn’t appear anywhere on any of the draft previews.<\/p>\n

Summary: <\/span><\/strong>Through the first 10 rounds the Nats picked 5 pitchers and 5 hitters for good balance. \u00a0Of these 10 players selected, 9 are college. \u00a0So, in other words, this is exactly the type of draft we expect to see out of a Rizzo-run organization (with the possible exception of perhaps predicting a few more arms).\u00a0 <\/span>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Of these 10 draftees, I’d say that at least 5 are “expected under slot guys” (Dickie, Van Orden, Kerry, Gardner and Page).\u00a0 You have to think the team may play some slot hardball with Fedde.\u00a0\u00a0 Suarez and Williams should sign for about slot.\u00a0 That leaves two guys who may take over-slot deals to sign; the sole HS draftee in Reetz and the decently ranked Byler.\u00a0 I’ll bet it works out and all 10 guys sign.<\/p>\n

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Some useful draft links for you<\/strong>:<\/p>\n