{"id":9587,"date":"2014-07-19T10:26:51","date_gmt":"2014-07-19T14:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9587"},"modified":"2015-04-09T08:52:02","modified_gmt":"2015-04-09T12:52:02","slug":"nats-2014-draft-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9587","title":{"rendered":"Nats 2014 draft = failure"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_9356\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/SuarezAndrew-umiami-via-247sports.com_.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9356\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-9356\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/SuarezAndrew-umiami-via-247sports.com_-300x154.jpg\" alt=\"Suarez is heading back to school.  Photo via 247sports.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/SuarezAndrew-umiami-via-247sports.com_-300x154.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/SuarezAndrew-umiami-via-247sports.com_.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-9356\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Suarez is heading back to school. Photo via 247sports.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>I&#8217;m sure, based on comments in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9583\">previous thread<\/a>, that some will think the results of the Nats 2014 draft will be overblown. \u00a0Fair enough. \u00a0Yes the draft is a crap shoot, especially after the first round. \u00a0You can take that angle and tell your self that its not that big of a deal that the team blew its 2nd and 8th round picks.<\/p>\n<p>But this fact remains: At the draft signing deadline for the 2014 rule-4 draft, out of 315 players taken in the first 10 rounds (and supplimentals), just six players were unsigned. \u00a0And <a href=\"http:\/\/natsinsider.com\/2014\/07\/18\/nats-sign-fedde-see-two-return-to-school\/\">two of them belong to the Nats<\/a>. \u00a0This team is doing squat in the international market and, outside of a few marquee names, has a pretty thin farm system right now, and needed to get high-end talent out of this draft. \u00a0But they didn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my (glass is half empty) <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheet\/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&amp;hl=en#gid=0\">summary of the top 10 rounds<\/a> for this team now:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>An over-slot starter coming off of Tommy John surgery (which doesn&#8217;t have a 100% recovery rate, lets remind ourselves) who may or may not have even been a top-15 talent (as he was paid) before he got hurt. \u00a0Every draft pundit I saw had him in the late 20s factoring in his injury.<\/li>\n<li>Four college senior\/throw away signings who all scream &#8220;org guy&#8221; and likely all wash out within a couple years.<\/li>\n<li>A massive over-slot HS catcher who, if everything goes *perfectly* for the kid&#8217;s development, we may see at the big league level 5 years from now.<\/li>\n<li>A Juco pitcher who so far is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=656372\">getting *hammered*<\/a> in the rookie league.<\/li>\n<li>A 6th round pitcher from a middling college in a low-end division 1 league.<\/li>\n<li>A compensation pick in the middle of the 2nd round next year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Wow. \u00a0I&#8217;m overwhelmed with anticipation to see how our 2014 class turns out! \u00a0To say that\u00a0<strong>Mike Rizzo<\/strong> has gambled this entire draft on the future potential of\u00a0<strong>Erick Fedde<\/strong> is an overstatement. \u00a0Most scouting reports on him have his ceiling as a 3rd starter at best, not exactly the same as drafting a\u00a0<strong>Tyler Kolek<\/strong> or a\u00a0<strong>Carlos Rodon<\/strong>. \u00a0If Fedde flames out or is converted to a reliever (as more and more it seems\u00a0last year&#8217;s pick\u00a0<strong>Jake Johansen<\/strong> will be doing thanks to his apparent inability to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.milb.com\/milb\/stats\/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&amp;did=milb&amp;cid=563\">pitch more than 4 innings<\/a> at a time without getting blasted), we&#8217;ll be talking about the &#8220;hole&#8221; this draft leaves in the system for some time.<\/p>\n<p>Two of the other unsigned players from this draft are <a href=\"http:\/\/hardballtalk.nbcsports.com\/2014\/07\/18\/the-astros-did-not-sign-number-one-overall-pick-brady-aiken-this-is-a-big-deal\">far more high visibility<\/a>: the situation with Houston and\u00a0<strong>Brady Aiken<\/strong> (and its fall-out consequences of costing them\u00a0<strong>Jacob Nix<\/strong> and to a lesser extent 21st round pick\u00a0<strong>Mac Marshall<\/strong>) is a huge problem for baseball. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/blog\/keith-law\/post\/_\/id\/2555\/astros-failure-to-sign-aiken-a-total-fiasco\">I agree with<\/a>\u00a0<strong>Keith Law<\/strong> wholeheartedly; the Astros reneged on a draft-day deal with arguable &#8220;findings&#8221; in the medicals, and that haggling cost them another pre-arranged deal with Nix. \u00a0Both players have serious cases for a grievance; the Astros pulled back on verbal agreements that may end up being legally binding, AND both are high school kids who failed very high-profile professional negotiations, likely negating their NCAA eligibility\/accepted scholarship offers to UCLA. \u00a0Its a mess all around.<\/p>\n<p>Personally, I hope both players file a grievance with the union and are declared free agents, free to negotiate with whoever they want. \u00a0Certainly there will be another team that looks at Aiken&#8217;s medicals and has no problem giving him far more than the $6.5M bonus (approx) that was pulled back. \u00a0I read an opinion yesterday that said he could get a 6yr\/$20M deal given his capabilities. \u00a0It highlights the grave need for a &#8220;player combine&#8221; similar to what the NFL does, where players showcase for scouts all together and get consistent medical advice that is available to all teams.<\/p>\n<p>Sorry to sound so negative, but taking a high-profile\/high-cost injury-risk pitcher for the 3rd time in 4 years (<strong>Giolito, Purke<\/strong>), missing on your 2nd rounder, and missing on the one potential &#8220;over slot&#8221; guy that you should have been saving your pennies for by drafting throw-away college seniors in rounds 5 through 9 is a failed draft for me. \u00a0The Nats are going to have to get some &#8220;finds&#8221; out of this crew, or out of the rest of the class, to make up for these mistakes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m sure, based on comments in the previous thread, that some will think the results of the Nats 2014 draft will be overblown. \u00a0Fair enough. \u00a0Yes the draft is a crap shoot, especially after the first round. \u00a0You can take that angle and tell your self that its not that big of a deal that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[2464,2406,1835,2425,2552,1812,110,852,166,129,2452],"class_list":["post-9587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-draft","tag-andrew-suarez","tag-brady-aiken","tag-carlos-rodon","tag-erick-fedde","tag-jacob-nix","tag-jake-johansen","tag-keith-law","tag-lucas-giolito","tag-matthew-purke","tag-mike-rizzo","tag-tyler-kolek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9587"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10426,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9587\/revisions\/10426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}