{"id":9763,"date":"2014-09-23T15:08:53","date_gmt":"2014-09-23T19:08:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9763"},"modified":"2014-09-23T15:08:53","modified_gmt":"2014-09-23T19:08:53","slug":"nats-playoff-rotation-who-will-be-in-and-who-should-be-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9763","title":{"rendered":"Nats playoff rotation: who will be in and who should be in?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Roark<\/a>

Roark may be odd-man out in the playoffs. Photo Alex Brandon\/AP via wp.com<\/p><\/div>\n

The NL East champion Nationals have a problem that lots of teams would like to have: they have 5 great starter options for 4 post-season rotation spots.\u00a0 Who should we pick, and in what order should they pitch?<\/p>\n

(all stats are as of 9\/23\/14 courtesy of baseball-reference.com)<\/p>\n

Option 1<\/strong>: stick with the season-long rotation.\u00a0 Strasburg-Gonzalez-Zimmermann-Fister with Roark heading to the bullpen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nName<\/td>\nW<\/td>\nL<\/td>\nW-L%<\/td>\nERA<\/td>\nERA+<\/td>\nFIP<\/td>\nWHIP<\/td>\nG<\/td>\nGS<\/td>\nIP<\/td>\nBB<\/td>\nSO<\/td>\nBB9<\/td>\nSO9<\/td>\nSO\/W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nStephen Strasburg<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n0.542<\/td>\n3.23<\/td>\n116<\/td>\n2.98<\/td>\n1.139<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n209<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n235<\/td>\n1.8<\/td>\n10.1<\/td>\n5.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nGio Gonzalez*<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0.474<\/td>\n3.74<\/td>\n100<\/td>\n3.13<\/td>\n1.233<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n151.2<\/td>\n54<\/td>\n150<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\n8.9<\/td>\n2.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nJordan Zimmermann<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0.722<\/td>\n2.78<\/td>\n135<\/td>\n2.75<\/td>\n1.117<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n190.2<\/td>\n28<\/td>\n172<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n8.1<\/td>\n6.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nDoug Fister<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0.714<\/td>\n2.55<\/td>\n147<\/td>\n4.07<\/td>\n1.123<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n155<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n89<\/td>\n1.4<\/td>\n5.2<\/td>\n3.71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nTanner Roark<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0.583<\/td>\n2.85<\/td>\n131<\/td>\n3.49<\/td>\n1.102<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n192.1<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n137<\/td>\n1.8<\/td>\n6.4<\/td>\n3.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

This is likely what happens regardless, since manager Matt Williams<\/strong> is old school and likely sticks with his veterans over the “new guy” in Roark.\u00a0 Thanks to four off-days between their last regular season game (Sunday 9\/28) and the first game of the playoffs<\/a> (Friday 10\/3) it doesn’t even matter what order these guys have been pitching in; even the guy who goes Sunday (scheduled to be Gio) would have four full days of rest prior to the NLDS opener.<\/p>\n

Option 2<\/strong>: Go with the four best starters in terms of season-long performance: Zimmermann-Fister-Strasburg-Roark with Gonzalez the odd-man out.<\/p>\n

Looking at the above stats, this would be your top four going strictly by a subjective opinion looking at the “old school” stats of W\/L record and ERA.\u00a0 But a closer look at the FIPs show this to be faulty logic; despite his excellent numbers Fister has the highest FIP of the starters despite having the best ERA+ figure.\u00a0 Plus, you really don’t want to leave out your sole lefty starter in a playoff series.<\/p>\n

Option 3<\/strong>: Go with the hottest hands. Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gonzalez-Roark with Fister in the pen.<\/p>\n

Here’s the stats for the last 5 starts for each guy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nName<\/td>\nTeam W<\/td>\nTeam L<\/td>\nW-L%<\/td>\nERA<\/td>\nbabip<\/td>\nBAA<\/td>\nWHIP<\/td>\nG<\/td>\nGS<\/td>\nIP<\/td>\nBB<\/td>\nSO<\/td>\nBB9<\/td>\nSO9<\/td>\nSO\/W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nStephen Strasburg<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n1.34<\/td>\n0.28<\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n0.802<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n33.66<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n0.535<\/td>\n8.82<\/td>\n16.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nGio Gonzalez*<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n3.41<\/td>\n0.25<\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n0.958<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n31.33<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n1.149<\/td>\n6.61<\/td>\n5.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nJordan Zimmermann<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n2.03<\/td>\n0.3<\/td>\n0.23<\/td>\n1.032<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n32<\/td>\n1.161<\/td>\n9.29<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nDoug Fister<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n3.26<\/td>\n0.27<\/td>\n0.27<\/td>\n1.352<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n30.33<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n2.671<\/td>\n3.56<\/td>\n1.333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nTanner Roark<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.4<\/td>\n3.13<\/td>\n0.3<\/td>\n0.28<\/td>\n1.169<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n31.66<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n0.853<\/td>\n5.4<\/td>\n6.333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Taking a look at each starter’s last 5 starts, a couple things become clear: Strasburg, as we have all seen, is on fire; just two walks in 33+ innings and a 1.34 ERA.\u00a0 Its ridiculous that the team hasn’t won all five of his games.\u00a0 Washington has won all five of Zimmermann’s starts.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Fister looks like the weakest link here, with the highest whip and the fewest Ks in the closing run.\u00a0 Roark’s finish hasn’t been too bad, but his peripherals put him behind Gio.<\/p>\n

Option 4<\/strong>: Look at the home-road splits to pick starters.\u00a0 Strasburg-Roark-Zimmerman-Fister<\/p>\n

Here’s the season long home\/away splits for our starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pos<\/td>\nName<\/td>\nSplit<\/td>\nW<\/td>\nL<\/td>\nW-L%<\/td>\nERA<\/td>\nG<\/td>\nGS<\/td>\nIP<\/td>\nBB<\/td>\nSO<\/td>\nWHIP<\/td>\nSO9<\/td>\nSO\/W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nGio Gonzalez*<\/td>\nHome<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.571<\/td>\n3.88<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n65<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n63<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n8.7<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nGio Gonzalez*<\/td>\nAway<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n0.417<\/td>\n3.63<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n86<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nStephen Strasburg<\/td>\nHome<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.727<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n110<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n133<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n10.9<\/td>\n7.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nStephen Strasburg<\/td>\nAway<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n0.385<\/td>\n3.82<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n99<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n102<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n9.3<\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nTanner Roark<\/td>\nHome<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n90<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n2.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nTanner Roark<\/td>\nAway<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.667<\/td>\n3.17<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n102<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n76<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n6.7<\/td>\n4.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nDoug Fister<\/td>\nHome<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0.778<\/td>\n1.95<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n69<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n0.9<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nDoug Fister<\/td>\nAway<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0.667<\/td>\n3.05<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n85<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nJordan Zimmermann<\/td>\nHome<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0.75<\/td>\n2.81<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n96<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n78<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n7.3<\/td>\n4.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SP<\/td>\nJordan Zimmermann<\/td>\nAway<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n0.7<\/td>\n2.76<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n94<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n8.9<\/td>\n7.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

This isn’t so much about picking who is better at home; its going with those who have the best away records.\u00a0 Zimmermann and Fister both give a better chance of winning on the road and make sense as game #3 and #4 starters.\u00a0 Meanwhile both Strasburg is less effective on the road versus at home.\u00a0\u00a0 This scenario leaves us without Gio though, our sole lefty, so it probably isn’t viable.<\/p>\n

Option #5<\/strong>: play match-ups with the opponent.\u00a0 Unfortunately, I’m hoping the team clinches the top seed, which means they go against the wild card winner … and while we’re pretty sure we know who the WC teams are (San Francisco and Pittsburgh) at this point … we don’t know who will host the play-in game, nor who they’ll be throwing.\u00a0\u00a0 Washington took the season series against both squads (4-3 over Pittsburgh, 5-2 over San Francisco), and the timing of those series<\/a> are also interesting:<\/p>\n