{"id":9854,"date":"2014-10-02T13:18:29","date_gmt":"2014-10-02T17:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9854"},"modified":"2014-10-02T13:18:29","modified_gmt":"2014-10-02T17:18:29","slug":"divisional-series-pitching-matchups-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/?p=9854","title":{"rendered":"Divisional Series Pitching Matchups & Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Strasburg's<\/a>

Strasburg’s first post-season start is upon us. Photo unk via thewifehatessports.com<\/p><\/div>\n

Last year I went nearly game-by-game, night-by-night with predictions and analysis of the playoffs.\u00a0 Can’t do that this year, but I am doing some quickie starter match-up analysis to do some Divisional Series match-up predictions.\u00a0 The current list of probables is mostly guess work, with the help of MLB.com’s probable pitcher page<\/a>.\u00a0 Also using depth charts<\/a> to make guesses on the probables.<\/p>\n

Lets start with the home team.<\/p>\n

Washington-San Francisco<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Potential Pitching Match-ups:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Game 1: SF@Wash: Jake Peavy<\/strong> vs Stephen Strasburg<\/strong><\/li>\n
  2. Game 2: SF@Wash: Tim Hudson <\/strong>vs Jordan Zimmermann
    \n<\/strong><\/li>\n
  3. Game 3: Wash@SF:\u00a0Doug Fister<\/strong> <\/strong>vs Madison Bumgarner<\/strong><\/li>\n
  4. Game 4: Wash@SF: Gio Gonzalez<\/strong> <\/strong>vs Ryan Vogelsong<\/strong> (if necessary) <\/strong><\/li>\n
  5. Game 5: SF@Wash: Peavy vs Strasburg (if necessary)
    \n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The WP’s James Wagner<\/strong> has a nice “how do the Nats fare against Peavy and Hudson<\/a>” story on 10\/2\/14 with per-National stats against Peavy and Hudson for the first two games.\u00a0 And Wagner also just announced the rotation order<\/a> for the Nats.<\/p>\n

    Yes, it seems like we’re going to see Strasburg & Zimmermann at home instead of Stras-Gio.<\/p>\n

    Looking at the match-ups, its easy to say “advantage Washington.”\u00a0 Strasburg has been hot.\u00a0 Zimmermann has been even more hot.\u00a0 We then throw the underrated Fister against Giant’s best starter, then come back with Gio in game 4 on the road, where he’s\u00a0 going against the erratic Vogelsong.\u00a0 Hudson has had the Nat’s number for years, but he’s been a train wreck in the 2nd half of 2014.\u00a0 Peavy has been a bulldog for San Francisco since the trade, but was nearly a 5.00 ERA in the AL.<\/p>\n

    I’m predicting Washington<\/strong> <\/span>sweeps the first two at home, loses Bumgarner’s start, then beats SF in game 4 to wrap up the series 3-1.<\/p>\n


    \n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n

    St. Louis-Los Angeles Dodgers
    \n<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Game 1: Stl@LAD: Adam Wainwright<\/strong> vs Clayton Kershaw<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
    2. Game 2: Stl@LAD: Lance Lynn<\/strong> vs Zack Greinke
      \n<\/strong><\/li>\n
    3. Game 3: LAD@Stl: Hyun-Jin Ryu<\/strong> vs John Lackey<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
    4. Game 4: LAD@Stl: Dan Haren <\/strong>vs Shelby Miller <\/strong>(if necessary) <\/strong><\/li>\n
    5. Game 5: Stl@LAD: Wainwright v Kershaw again (if necessary)
      \n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      St. Louis has already announced that Michael Wacha<\/strong> is *not* in the post-season rotation, which is a huge blow for their chances to out-last the Dodgers.\u00a0 The game 1 match-up might be the pitching matchup of the post-season, with perennial Cy Young candidate Wainwright going against the likely MVP in Kershaw.\u00a0 Lynn has gone from being barely a 5th starter to being the #2 guy on St. Louis’ staff, but I don’t know if he’s got enough to get St. Louis the split against Greinke.\u00a0 Missing Wacha means that St. Louis will have to depend on both Lackey and Miller.\u00a0 Long odds there.<\/p>\n

      This series might end up being a sweep frankly; I think LA has the distinct pitching advantage here.\u00a0 And not having Wacha’s dominance from previous post seasons makes it tough.\u00a0 Dodgers<\/span><\/strong> in a sweep or 3-1 if the Cards can get to either Greinke or Ryu.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      \n

      Detroit-Baltimore<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Game 1: Det@Balt: Max Scherzer<\/strong> vs Chris Tillman<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
      2. Game 2: Det@Balt: Justin Verlander<\/strong> vs Wei-Yin Chen<\/strong>
        \n<\/strong><\/li>\n
      3. Game 3: Balt@Det: Bud Norris<\/strong> vs David Price<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
      4. Game 4: Balt@Det: Miguel Gonzalez <\/strong>vs Rick Porcello<\/strong><\/strong> (if necessary) <\/strong><\/li>\n
      5. Game 5: Det@Balt: Tillman-Scherzer (if necessary)
        \n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        The 96-win Orioles get rewarded with having to face three Cy Young winners in the first three games.\u00a0 Their rotation mates are underrated (3rd best ERA in the 2nd half) but certainly not in the same class as what Detroit puts up there.\u00a0 Baltimore’s best case is to get a split at home, then a split away and get to the 5th game.\u00a0 I don’t see it: I think this series hinges on whether Verlander is Cy Young-Verlander or inexplicably-bad-lately Verlander.\u00a0 I’m guessing the former; Detroit<\/strong><\/span> wins this series in a sweep or perhaps 3-1.<\/p>\n

        \n

        Kansas City-Los Angeles Angels
        \n<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Game 1: KC@LAA: Jason Vargas<\/strong> vs Jered Weaver<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
        2. Game 2: KC@LAA: Yordano Ventura<\/strong> vs Matt Shoemaker
          \n<\/strong><\/li>\n
        3. Game 3: LAA@KC: C.J. Wilson<\/strong> vs James Shields<\/strong><\/strong><\/li>\n
        4. Game 4: LAA@KC:\u00a0Weaver vs Jeremy Guthrie<\/strong><\/strong> (if necessary) <\/strong><\/li>\n
        5. Game 5: KC@LAA: Shoemaker v Vargas (if necessary)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          The Angels are struggling into the playoffs and have announced they’re going with a 3-man rotation.\u00a0 Weaver’s history of going on 3 days rest is spotty; one decent start and one blow-out.\u00a0 Meanwhile the Royals burned their #1 guy in the WC game AND threw Ventura enough to have people question Ned Yost<\/strong>‘s sanity (even moreso than they already were with his multiple bunting).\u00a0 But the Angels hit, and the Royals’ guys won’t be able to completely put them at odds.<\/p>\n

          I think the 3-man rotation will backfire, and whether the Royals throw Guthrie or Danny Duffy<\/strong> in game 4 won’t make a difference; they’ll hit Weaver at home and push this to a 5th game, where everybody will be on deck.\u00a0 Angels<\/span><\/strong> in 5.<\/p>\n

          \n

          Lets see if these probable pitchers hold up to guesses made on 10\/1\/14.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Last year I went nearly game-by-game, night-by-night with predictions and analysis of the playoffs.\u00a0 Can’t do that this year, but I am doing some quickie starter match-up analysis to do some Divisional Series match-up predictions.\u00a0 The current list of probables is mostly guess work, with the help of MLB.com’s probable pitcher page.\u00a0 Also using depth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2036],"tags":[346,1676,1039,53,426,983,2031,223,241,385,2018,1022,49,1478,1334,406,2030,306,43,44,897,894,2582,1037,1953,1038,2622,266,468,1333,38,219,1029,2232,254],"class_list":["post-9854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mlbpitching","category-post-season","tag-adam-wainwright","tag-bud-norris","tag-chris-tillman","tag-cj-wilson","tag-clayton-kershaw","tag-dan-haren","tag-danny-duffy","tag-david-price","tag-doug-fister","tag-gio-gonzalez","tag-hyun-jin-ryu","tag-jake-peavy","tag-james-shields","tag-james-wagner","tag-jason-vargas","tag-jered-weaver","tag-jeremy-guthrie","tag-john-lackey","tag-jordan-zimmermann","tag-justin-verlander","tag-lance-lynn","tag-madison-bumgarner","tag-matt-shoemaker","tag-max-scherzer","tag-michael-wacha","tag-miguel-gonzalez","tag-ned-yost","tag-rick-porcello","tag-ryan-vogelsong","tag-shelby-miller","tag-stephen-strasburg","tag-tim-hudson","tag-wei-yin-chen","tag-yordano-ventura","tag-zack-greinke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9854"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9854\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9862,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9854\/revisions\/9862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nationalsarmrace.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}