Nationals Arm Race

With the benefit of all the other pro pundits, all the off-season moves, and really trying not to have April stats color my opinions too much, here’s my “104 ranked prospects” for the system.

When I did this at the end of the 2025 season, I got lots of good feedback that i had some guys way too high or low. Hopefully I’m not so drastically off this time around as well. I went 125 deep at the end of 2025, which seems crazy. how did I get back to 104? Well, since the Sept post we’ve lost 33 of those 125 players:

• 2 were traded (Bennett, Linan,
• 15 became MLFAs and left the system; highest one was Nick Schnell in the low 30s.
• 2 were DFA’d and got claimed/Traded (Brzycky, Eder)
• 2 were released to pursue other opps or by their request (Lao, Baker)
• 12 were outright released; these are the embarrassing ones; how do you rank a guy who the team flat out released? The highest ranked release I had ranked in Sept 2025 was Armando Cruz, who I had ranked 57th basically clinging to the $3.9M the team wasted on him in 2021.

But, we’ve also added 12 players in the off-season who are now somewhere in the top 100:

• 4 2026 IFA signings, the highest of which is Serrano at #37.
• 8 prospects acquired in trade, including four of our top 10 in Ford, Fien, Perales, and Fitz-Gerald.

125-33+12 = exactly 104, and that’s exactly how many I’ve ranked in this iteration.

Nonetheless, posting this a week into May seems dumb, and next year i’ll do a better job of posting this before the season starts and won’t wait for Fangraphs’ ranking to finish. I’m basically posting this now so the work doesn’t go to waste.

Here’s my full list as it stands today:

TB rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Harry	Ford	C
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
5	Gavin	Fein	SS
6	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
9	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
10	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
11	Ronny	Cruz	SS
12	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
13	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
14	Coy	James	SS
15	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
16	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
17	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
18	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
19	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
20	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
21	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
22	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
23	Marconi	German	SS
24	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
25	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
26	Caleb	Lomavita	C
27	Yohandy	Morales	3B
28	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
29	Josh	Randall	RHP (Starter)
30	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
31	Phillips	Glasser	SS
32	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
33	Abimelec	Ortiz	1B/OF (Corner)
34	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
35	Andrew	Alvarez	LHP (Starter)
36	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
37	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
38	Sir Jamison	Jones	C
39	Rafael	Ramirez Jr.	SS
40	Kevin	Bazzell	C
41	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
42	Daniel	Hernandez	C
43	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
44	Isalas	Suarez	OF (CF)
45	Angel	Ramirez	OF (Corner)
46	Browm	Martinez	OF (CF)
47	Victor	Hurtado	OF (Corner)
48	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
49	R.J.	Sales	RHP (Starter)
50	Clayton	Beeter	RHP (Reliever)
51	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
52	Juan	Duran	OF (Corner)
53	Isaac	Lyon	RHP (Starter)
54	Robert	Cranz	RHP (Reliever)
55	Schultz	Thomas	RHP (Reliever)
56	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
57	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
58	Austin	Amaral	RHP (Reliever)
59	Liam	Sullivan	LHP (Starter)
60	T.J.	White	OF (Corner)
61	Randal	Diaz	SS/3B
62	Sam	Brown	OF (Corner)
63	Leuris	Portorreal	RHP (Starter)
64	Elijah	Nunez	OF (CF)
65	Brenner	Cox	OF (CF)
66	Johnathan	Thomas	OF (CF)
67	Tyler	Schoff	RHP (Reliever)
68	Erik	Tolman	LHP (Starter)
69	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
70	Brayan	Romero	RHP (Starter)
71	Branden	Boissiere	OF (Corner)
72	Kevin	Made	SS
73	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
74	Juan	Reyes	LHP (Starter)
75	Pablo	Aldonis	LHP (Reliever)
76	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (Reliever)
77	Enmanuel	Carela	RHP (Starter)
78	Darrel	Lunar	RHP (Starter)
79	Adam	Bloebaum	RHP (Reliever)
80	Travis	Sthele	RHP (Starter)
81	Alexander	Meckley	RHP (Starter)
82	Merritt	Beeker	LHP (Reliever)
83	Bryan	Polanco	RHP (Starter)
84	Carlos	Tavares	1B/OF (Corner)
85	Greyson	Gimenez	RHP (Reliever)
86	Kyle	Luckham	RHP (Starter)
87	Luke	Johnson	RHP (Starter)
88	Holden	Powell	RHP (Reliever)
89	Max	Romero Jr.	C
90	Huff	Chance	RHP (Reliever)
91	Marcus	Brown	SS
92	Juan	Obispo	OF (CF)
93	Rony	Bello	2B/3B
94	Manuel	Cabrera	SS
95	Nick	Peoples	OF (Corner)
96	Mikey	Tepper	RHP (Starter)
97	Seth	Shuman	RHP (Reliever)
98	Gavin	Dugas	2B
99	Luke	Young	RHP (Reliever)
100	Jack	Sinclair	RHP (Reliever)
101	Elian	Soto	1B/OF (Corner)
102	Leodarlyn	Colon	RHP (Reliever)
103	Everett	Cooper	SS
104	Matt	Suggs	C

In the interests of not making this too long of a post, I’ll provide some commentary in batches of picks:

• 1-5: I’ve got the same top 5 as all pundits not named Longenhagen. Not much to note here. As we’ll discuss more later, with the benefit of April’s production there’d probably be different names in my top 5 now.
• 6-10: I’ve kept this a conventional list, so Clemmey and King remain high. I’m trusting that Perales is all that he’s been promised, and i’ve put our big dollar prep RHP Harmon right at #10 so that its consistent with most other shops ranking of him. King is making huge strides now, and probably moves into the top 5 in the next ranking along with Cruz (he was just named into BA’s latest top 100)
• 11-15: Ronny Cruz is going to start showing up on top 100 lists, so I’ve moved him to just outside the top 10 for now. If I was fully taking into account his April performance he’d be ranked 5th. I’ve also kept Dickerson here despite his 2025 struggles due to scouting reports remaining glowing, and have a couple of our younger stars in here as well.
• 16-20: four of the five end up being starters, including two guys in AA in Garcia and Kent who could be the part of the next crew of low-ceiling starters to push for the majors in the Irvin-Parker-Herz mold. Also, Sime has started incredibly hot and is looking nearly unhittable in Low-A; he’d be 10 spots higher taking April fully into account.
• 21-25: I’ve got a couple of injury-riddled starters here who might be higher in Rosario and Swan; i think people ranking Rosario anywhere in the top 20 are fools. Franklin remains here as the best of the AAA-addled corner OF we seem to have collected there this year.
• 26-30: Three college bats who have been much more heralded than they are now in Lomavita, Morales, and Wallace. I’ve given up fighting the Morales fight; he was #6 on my post-2025 list and honestly I have no defense of why i’ve pushed him this far down. Of course as I write this he’s raking in April in AAA so i’ll look like a fool when he heads to the majors and supplants Luis Garcia at 1B/DH. Randall’s AA debut looks great; he may be higher soon.
• 31-35 has two 4-A starters (Cornelio, Alvarez), and apparently two 4-A corner outfielders (Pinckney and Ortiz). They’re joined by Glasser, who may be our hitter of the year but will struggle to get any further in the system.
• 36-40 has a couple of DSL bonus-baby ranked players in Cortesia and Serrano; Serrano was our highest ranked 2026 IFA signing and is very well regarded by those in the know (Longenhagen had him #18). We also have two other pretty young players in Jones and Ramirez Jr here.
• 41-45: this is the range where we stick DSL types who have had one good season there, or who signed for big money but we just don’t know how good they will be. That includes Hernandez, De la Cruz, Suarez, and Rodriguez here.
• 46-50: Two injured arms who probably should be higher in Stuart and Sales, a solid reliever in Beeter who will be off these “prospect” lists soon, plus the $2.8M Hurtado who at least has made it to FCL in his 3rd pro year but needs to “do something” soon.
• 51-55: Three promising looking minor league relievers in Lyon, Cranz, and Schultz. Lyon is now leading the High-A roster and I continue to be amazed that we fetched both Ford and Lyon for a reliever with a 4.46 ERA last year (yes, I know he’s pitching better in 2026, but the point remains).
• 56-60: Three more relievers in Amaral, Grissom and Sullivan, plus TJ White, who has struggled for years but is finding his footing this year.
• 61-70: a hodge podge of players, including some failed starters and a MIA former top prospect in Cox who we now know is converting to be a pitcher after hitting sub .200 for three years in the low minors.
• 71-80 includes a couple of very high profile prospects who seem to be playing their way out in Made and Green, along with a few DSL starters who were solid in their first year and who might work their way up the ranks soon.
• 80-90: A couple of system starters in Meckley and Luckham, maybe they should be higher. We also have some hold-over starters here like Polanco and Johnson.
• 90-104: Backup catchers, backup middle infielders who used to be more heralded, and low-ceiling relievers.

A few more interesting tid bits:

• The highest player I have ranked who does not appear on a single other ranking list is 2026 IFA signing Juan Duran, who got $1m from us in January and who i’ve put at #52.
• The next three players on my list after Duran (Lyon, Cranz, and Schultz) also fail to appear on any other lists, likely b/c they’re essentially promising looking relievers who would never appear within a top 30 of a major shop.
• Pretty much everyone I have ranked about 75 only appears on my own ranking lists for the last couple of cycles. They’re ranked b/c they showed some promise, or earned promotions in the last couple of seasons. Mostly though, they’re “org guys” for now unless they blow it up and make a leap that hasn’t been really evident in their performances thus far.