Nationals Arm Race

It occurred to me … you know when the right time to do prospect evaluation is? It isn’t in March or April ahead of the next season, its right now. Well, at least until we see off-season churn, add new signings in January, add prospects in trade, etc. But for now, we’ve just finished the last of the minor league seasons, 2025 performance is fresh in our minds, we’ve added a slew of new prospects via the trade deadline and the Draft, and now’s a great time to pass judgement on the seasons we just saw.

So, here’s my top 125 Prospect Ranks for the National system, right now. I’ll list these in groups of 10, list where I had them ranked in Mid-March before the season started. I ended up writing so much that I broke this into two posts: Part 1 will be the top 60, then we’ll dive into the 61-125th ranked guys.

We’ve had a ton of prospect churn this season; we’ve graduated 10 prospects from my top 100+ list in March, including four of our top 10. Crews, House, Cavalli (who as of this exact writing needs one more start to officially graduate via IP, even though he graduated via Service time a year ago), Hassell, Lile, Lord, Nunez (another Service time vs Plate appearance guy), Rutledge, Henry, and Millas all hit MLB rookie eligibility limits this year (150 PAs or 50IP). We released another 10 guys who I had ranked in March, which mostly goes to the folly of trying to rank anyone above the top 50 or so.

Key links guiding this:

• Big Board: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/edit?hl=en&gid=1488309175#gid=1488309175
• Draft Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
• IFA Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ksPorXhEHhtkNAGqxrJWqUFkvioMgoWhBU50uaZstc8/edit?usp=sharing
• This full ranking in a Google Sheet online: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xs9fmb-dctE90hTS3bdozznETS-Oc3GsMuGzRo2faUc/edit?usp=sharing

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The blocks will be in the form Current Rank (March 2025 Rank) Name position

Here’s my current top 10 for the system:

1 (nr) Eli Willits SS
2 (4) Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter)
3 (9) Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter)
4 (17) Jake Bennett LHP (Starter)
5 (2) Travis Sykora RHP (Starter)
6 (6) Yohandy Morales 3B
7 (nr) Ethan Petry 1B/OF (Corner)
8 (11) Caleb Lomavita C
9 (nr) Coy James SS
10 (nr) Landon Harmon RHP (Starter)

Discussion: So, I (like many shops) have Willits immediately going top. This is partly due to the injuries that Susana and Sykora suffered, and partly buying into the hype. Pretty much every other major shop has put Willits as #1 in our system upon his drafting too. In fact, the only shop that didn’t immediately have him #1 in our system was Fangraphs, and I’d bet they’d reconsider with Susana’s Lat surgery.

I kept Susana #2 once we found out it wasn’t Shoulder/Elbow. I know he’s still missing time in 2026, but it could be worse. I’ve dropped Sykora from a close #2 to 5th on the list behind our BA player of the year Clemmey and Bennett on the back of his outstanding season.

I remain baffled why Morales is so low on other rankings (#17 in BA, #20 MLBpipeline). I might be bullish on him, but I can’t see dropping him much below this. Petry’s inclusion to the AFL speaks volumes for the 2025 draftee; something tells me he’s going to be a pretty fast moving bat in this system. Lomavita looks like he could push Kiebert Ruiz for a job sooner than later, hitting for solid numbers in a pitcher’s park for most of 2025. I’ve filled out my top 10 with two speculative picks in the two highest profile prep players we overpaid for in the 2025 draft. These ranks could look pretty embarrassing in a year’s time, but are in line with BA/MLBPipeline’s initial rankings, so I’m happy with them.

Four of our top 10 were 2025 draft picks, an indication of just how important the 2025 draft will be to this organization going forward.

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11 (nr) Sean Paul Linan RHP (Starter)
12 (nr) Eriq Swan RHP (Starter)
13 (19) Angel Feliz 3B/SS
14 (nr) Cornelio Riley RHP (Starter)
15 (nr) Christian Franklin OF (CF)
16 (5) Seaver King SS
17 (12) Luke Dickerson SS/CF
18 (26) Jackson Kent LHP (Starter)
19 (39) Sam Peterson OF (CF)
20 (nr) Davian Garcia RHP (Starter)

Discussion: Linan and Swan seem like they’re going to be the crown jewels of the 2025 trade deadline, but finishing the year in High-A with solid 2025 numbers. Feliz is our highest performing 2024 IFA class member so far, being one of only 3 guys from that class to get off the island so far, and the only one to really make an impression state-side. He’s going to likely get pushed to 3B as he rises alongside more pure middle infielder prospects like Willits and Dickerson.

Cornelio Riley deservedly was just named the Nats 2025 Minor league Pitcher of the Year and has exploded onto the prospect radar: I did not even rank him in my top 100 last year, having held his first two seasons in relative disdain for his mediocre numbers and social promotion. How wrong do I look based on his 3-level rise this year? Franklin is an interesting one, arriving as a AAA level corner OF in a system full of OF prospects and raked. I’ve dropped Dickerson five slots from March, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but he’s probably lucky to remain this high based on a .208 hitting season. Kent ended the year in AA in his first pro season, tiring at the end but looking promising. Peterson nearly had a .300/.400/.500 season in High-A as a 2024 8th rounder from a little-regarded baseball school (Iowa). Maybe he should be higher, closer to Franklin. Garcia may be a little high here as a 2024 draftee who struggled a bit in High-A once he got there, but his Low-A debut was really promising.

Lastly, i’ve dumped King from #5 to #16. Is that fair given that he was in AA most of the time? Probably not, but it’s a good representation of how disappointing his season was in retrospect given his draft slot and bonus. I’ll bet most shops don’t dump him much past the early teens, and perhaps #16 is harsh, but there’s some serious concerns here.

As with our top 10, half this group wasn’t even ranked in March, with trade acquisitions and fantastic performances from two guys not on the prospect radar pushing their way in here. Unfortunately, that’s tempered by the plummeting of the two biggest names from the 2024 draft in King and Dickerson.

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21 (nr) Marconi German SS
22 (nr) Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (Starter)
23 (nr) Ronny Cruz SS
24 (67) Yoel Tejeda Jr.  RHP (Starter)
25 (28) Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter)
26 (14) Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter)
27 (20) Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)
28 (7) Cayden Wallace 2B/3B
29 (29) Brayan Cortesia SS
30 (nr) Randall Josh RHP (Starter)

Discussion: German is looking like the jewel of the 2025 IFA class so far, with a stellar DSL season where he slashed .283/.479/.513 and made the DSL All Star team. Cortesia at #29 was a bigger bonus guy and had a better average in the DSL, but had just 4 XBH (0 homers) in 40 DSL games. Both show promise.

Sime is the fourth of our four big bonus Prep 2025 draftees; he got a bit less than James and Harmon, and is a bit lower regarded from a potential perspective, but still projects as a flame-throwing starter. Cruz came over with Franklin in the Soroka trade a couple months ago and joins a slew of 18-19 yr old SS prospects (Willits, Dickerson, Feliz, James all ranked above him) competing for playing time. Tejeda was great all year but was shelved w/o notice with about a month to go in Low-A; hopefully nothing wrong there.

I’m definitely high-man on Alvarez, even given the fact that he’s made his MLB debut. For whatever reason, none of these shops rate a lefty starter who has held his own in AAA for two years then has a completely respectable debut stint in the majors. Call me crazy, but isn’t the point of prospects to get to the majors and contribute?

I’ve dropped Stuart 10 spots due to his TJ, which likely means we won’t see him til 2027. Should I have Pinckney higher? He’s a CF-capable 20-homer AAA hitter who’s a year younger than Franklin, who i’ve got 10 spots higher. Perhaps … but something just seems to be holding him up. Randall was the third of three High-A starters we nabbed in the trade deadline this year (alongside Swan and Linan) but had the roughest go of it in Wilmington (6.44 ERA). I keep him in the top 30 … for now.

Lastly, a word on perhaps my biggest “miss” of my May rankings: Cayden Wallace. I had him at #7 in the spring, thinking honestly that he might actually push House for his AAA third-base job. I was not alone in this regard, with other major shops generally having him in the 10-12 range. He punted the 2025 season; hitting .242/.310/.376 (with much of that production in one hot month). I can’t see him moving up to AAA next season (not with both Tena and Lipscomb as 3B capable players currently on the roster), at least not to open the season. Furthermore, there’s already three 2B on the AAA roster now (Baker, Arruda, Pena), so he’d struggle with playing time there as well.

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31 (44) Jose Feliz RHP (Starter)
32 (nr) Nick Schnell OF (Corner)
33 (nr) Sauryn Lao RHP (Starter)
34 (nr) R.J. Sales RHP (Starter)
35 (45) Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF)
36 (72) Sir Jamison Jones C
37 (21) Cristian Vaquero OF (CF)
38 (22) Victor Hurtado OF (Corner)
39 (87) Jorgelys Mota SS
40 (nr) Nauris De La Cruz OF (Corner)

Discussion: This group heavy on youngsters who may be moving further up soon. (Feliz, Tejeda, Jones, Mota, De la Cruz). It’s also notable how quickly our farm system thins.

Feliz is looking like the best arm out of the 2023 IFA class, having dominated the FCL this year. I look forward to seeing what he can do in full-season ball next year. Schnell may seem like an odd pick for a “prospect,” but the MLFA is still only 25 and bashed his way to AAA this year. The Rochester outfield (Schnell, Pinckney, Franklin) must have looked pretty harsh to opposing pitchers during the last half of the season.

Lao is an interesting one. He was DFA’d by Seattle a few weeks ago despite spending the entire season in their AAA rotation in Tacoma with a 3.19 ERA. He’s only 25. I think he might be a sneaky good contender for the AAA rotation to start next season, with an eye on covering in the majors quickly. He got called up to pitch out of the bullpen for the homestretch, but he’s no 4-A reliever.

Sales was probably the least heralded starter we got at the 2025 trade deadline, but he had some of the best numbers, with a 2.85 ERA in 22 low-A starts this year. He’s a college starter from UNC-Wilmington who will clearly be in our High-A rotation to start next season.

Both Tejeda and Jones are 19yr olds who may be ranked a bit high based on their 2025 performance, but who are promising. Jones is being brought along as a Catcher, which adds to his eventual value. Meanwhile, Vaquero and Hurtado remain primarily “bonus baby” prospects, and continue to leak downwards on the charts. I laugh at anyone who credibly tries to rank Hurtado in the top 20 of our system after hitting .236 while repeating the DSL. Mota could be a sneaky good prospect for us, as he hit well in Low-A while playing a ton of 3B while making way for the likes of Dickerson & Willits. He can play SS as needed.

Lastly, a word on Nauris De La Cruz, who gets a debutant ranking here after a very solid DSL debut. He signed for a pittance outside the normal signing period (they didn’t announce his 2025 IFA signing bonus, meaning it was at best $10k and likely less), but slashed .294/.448/.450 for the season. He may be a bit older than the normal DSL kid, but he still will move stateside having played mostly CF for the DSL nats.

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41 (nr) Clayton Beeter RHP (Reliever)
42 (42) Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever)
43 (nr) Browm Martinez OF (CF)
44 (47) Phillips Glasser SS
45 (nr) Juan Reyes LHP (Starter)
46 (16) Kevin Bazzell C
47 (53) Jose Atencio RHP (Starter)
48 (96) Pablo Aldonis LHP (Reliever)
49 (40) Orlando Ribalta RHP (Reliever)
50 (37) Daniel Hernandez C

Discussion: Yes, this is the first time you’re seeing relievers. I have an awfully hard time ranking relievers in the top 30, let alone the top 40. Why? Well, look no further than the makeup of the current Nats bullpen: 2 MLFAs (Ogasawara, Pilkington), 2 waiver claims (Poulin and Lao), 2 trade acquisitions (Thompson, Beeter), and two high-profile Nats failed starter prospects (Rutledge, Henry).

So, yes, I know Cranz had awesome numbers. I know Beeter and Ribalta have MLB time this year. They’re still 4-A guys who seemingly could be a 6-era or a 2-era guy in a MLB pen. Lets talk about the rest of these guys. Aldonis converted to relief this year and completely dominated across 3 levels, finishing the season with a 1.45 ERA to post some of the best numbers of any reliever in the system.

Martinez is a lottery ticket trade acquisition who was hitting .400 in the DSL when we acquired him, but who immediately hit the DL and that’s that. His ranking is incredibly speculative. Glasser gets the nod here on the heels of just being named the Nats 2025 Minor league Hitter of the Year. I still think he’s got Org Guy stink on him, but if he makes the majors as a bench guy in the same Jake Alu vein, then more power to him.

Juan Reyes was the star of the DSL rotation this year … but at age 20. It’s entirely possible his success in 2025 was “too old for the level,” but he signed for nothing and has pitched his way into an FCL look next year. Atencio missed the entire 2025 season with injury but was a 3.41 ERA starter last year in AA, so hopefully picks up where he left off.

Daniel Hernandez was a 7-figure 2025 IFA signing who is a Catcher, and he hit like one this year, posting a .552 OPS figure in his debut DSL season. #50 may be generous here.

Lastly, there’s Bazzell, who takes a mighty tumble down the ranks. He spent the entire season in Low-A despite being a 3rd round pick from a major baseball conference and put up some pretty anemic numbers, even for a catcher. Zero homers and a .283 slugging percentage. Keith Law ranked this guy #6 in our entire system earlier this year.

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51 (69) Daison Acosta RHP (Reliever)
52 (23) Elijah Green OF (CF)
53 (32) Darren Baker 2B
54 (33) Zach Brzykcy RHP (Reliever)
55 (nr) Sam Brown OF (Corner)
56 (43) Randal Diaz SS/3B
57 (27) Armando Cruz SS
58 (24) Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS
59 (55) Hyun-Il Choi RHP (Starter)
60 (13) Andry Lara RHP (Starter)

This is the section where we see a slew of more heralded prospects now getting pushed down after years of unproductivity. Elijah Green being the headliner, but joined by Baker (recently DFA’d), Brzycky (who was always too high, even for a reliever, before getting blasted in the majors), Cruz (who hit just .177 in High-A this season), Ramirez (who barely played this year after missing a ton of time on the DL), and especially Andry Lara, who was absolutely tattooed in AAA this year to an 8.92 ERA, which was nearly as bad as his MLB ERA of 8.79 in a few mop-up appearances. Yes, I know he’s only 22 and I know he throws hard, but it must be straight as an arrow to get hit as hard as he has.

is Baker a prospect at all? It’s hard to see where he goes from here; likely he plays out the 6-year string with us and moves on. He’s still got some positional value (he can play several positions in a pinch) but if the team needs backup middle infielders they’re likely moving on other names at this point.

Choi was a minor league rule5 guy who went from the opening day AAA rotation to mostly pitching out of the AA rotation all year. I don’t see a lot of ceiling here. I think he gets whacked again in AAA next year and moves to the bullpen.

Lets talk instead about the two guys in this group who seem to be moving up: Brown and Diaz. Brown was seemingly a throw-in from the Angels in the Chafin/Garcia trade, but he got to AA here as a 24yr old 2023 12th round pick and hit; .307/.384/.472 from the left side in his time here playing 1B/RF. Not bad. The other guy in this section I like a bit more: Randal Diaz was a 5th rounder in 2024 who never appeared last year and played the whole season in F’burg. He’s listed as a SS but we know Short was primarily manned all year by either Dickerson or Willits, so Diaz moved around. A lot: he played games at every infield position plus Left and Right at some point this year. We know the Nats love positional flexibility. Problem is, he didn’t hit as well as he needs to; just .229. We’ll see.

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Stay tuned for Part 2, ranking #61 to #125.