Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for October, 2021

2021 Winding Down; Draft position and Award predictions

22 comments

Is this it for Mr. Face of the Franchise? Photo via WashingtonTimes.com

It has been a while since I posted. My work life has heated up considerably, but also … What is there to talk about really? There’s little to play for, no reason to call up anyone else who hasn’t already been called up, and the team (and the sport in general) faces an interesting off-season.

So, what story lines are there for the first week of October?


First things first: 2022 Draft positioning: the team enters its last series with Boston at 65-94. Tied with Miami for the 5th worst record, and with no chance of either team moving any further up or down the 2022 draft board. Washington and Miami will be drafting 5th and 6th next year; this weekend will determine the order.

Last time the Nats drafted this high, they got Anthony Rendon. The list of players drafted 5th overall over the past 20 years or so is pretty promising: it includes the likes of Buster Posey and Ryan Braun. It includes this year’s likely NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. And it includes a ton of busts (though most of them were HS blow outs). so we can dream on next year. The 5th or 6th overall pick might net us someone like Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech who started for Team USA this past summer. Or maybe another prep phenom like Andruw “Druw” Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (Ga.), Son of the original Andruw Jones who has his father’s combination of speed and power. we’ll see

Prediction? With the Nats playing Boston (who still might net a WC spot) and the Marlins playing Philadelphia (who were just eliminated), odds are favorable of the Nats locking up the #5 spot in the draft.


Next story line: is this the end of the road for Ryan Zimmerman? He just finished his age 36 season with decent enough numbers for a bench bat: 103 OPS+ figure is just fine for the amount he’s being paid and what he brings to the clubhouse. Why not give it another go? Yes he’s got the personal services contract thing guaranteed … but I feel like there’s a solid chance the DH is put into the next CBA (both sides want it), which would give added life to someone like Zimmerman. Especially if the team decides not to really “try” in 2022 and to kind of stand pat with the existing roster for a season and allow for its gazillion newly acquired prospects to matriculate up.


Speaking of the CBA and the DH … we’ll be talking more in the off-season for sure about the CBA. I’m currently betting on some variation of the following to all occur:

  • work stoppage
  • Universal DH
  • minimum salary cap and continuation of luxury tax cap
  • international draft
  • Flat rate service time (i.e. you’re automatically a FA at age 29)
  • pitch clocks, robot umpires, lefty pickoff elimination, and shift banning.

Not all of these things will be “good” for the sport, but some will be and I hope we don’t see too much of a work stoppage.


We’re seeing some end of season prospect/farm system lists coming out; verdict seems to be that the Nats’ mid-season barrage has moved them from a consensus #30 system to somewhere in the low 20s. That’s not too bad. Unfortunately we’ve seen some variance in the cream of our top prospects’ performance that probably keeps us in that general area. The good and the bad from 2021:

  • top prospects who excelled/impressed: Ruiz, Grey (now graudated from rookie status), Cavalli (Nats pitching prospect of the year and only Futures game representee), House (just named #2 FCL prospect for 2021)
  • top Prospects who kind of treaded water: Antuna (bad first half, decent 2nd half), Lara (young but iffy FCL results),
  • Top Prospects who struggled/faltered: Rutledge, Henry (hurt most of year), Armando Cruz (did not impress in the DSL despite his massive signing bonus), Mendoza (demoted and poor), Romero (yet another inexplicable set of spring training circumstances and never got out of minors), Denaburg (TJ and a wasted 1st round pick), Cate (5+ ERA in AA), Cronin (hurt, then struggled in AA)

Might have to do a season wrap-up to go into these numbers more.


Next up is the Arizona Fall League; the Nats will be sending 7 or so players there. Who will we send? Well generally the Nats send players who fit one of these bills:

  • guys who were injured and need more playing time: clearly that includes Rutledge and Henry.  Maybe Matt Cronin
  • guys who are set to be rule-5 eligible and the team wants see them against better competition.  That includes a TON of 2018 college draftees for our team this year … from this list I could see guys like Canning, Rhinesmith, Cate especially.    Maybe Schaller.  Donovan Casey is rule-5 eligible and in AAA.
  • Oher top prospects who we want to see challenged: maybe Antuna fits here, maybe Jackson Cluff.
  • Extra Catchers: they always need catchers.  So look for someone random like Reetz (who was just DFA’d) or Pineda.

So, my 2021 AFL roster prediction is: Rutledge, Henry, Cronin, Pineda, Canning, Antuna, Cluff.


Lastly, my award predictions. I usually do a massive post on this but I just don’t have time.

  • AL MVP: Ohtani (Vlad Jr 2nd)
  • AL Cy Young: Robbie Ray
  • AL Rookie: Arozarena (only because Franco showed up so late)
  • AL Manager; no idea. I can’t beleive i’m saying this but Tony La Russa might actually win it.
  • NL MVP: Bryce Harper (who yes i think pips Soto and Tatis).
  • NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (over Wheeler, Scherzer)
  • NL rookie: Jonathan India
  • NL Manager: Gabe Kaper SF Giants: has to be; a team that wins 100 games that went into the season figuring it was a 3rd or 4th place team?

Written by Todd Boss

October 1st, 2021 at 1:25 pm

Posted in Nats in General