Nationals Arm Race

Here’s a quick overview of the Nats 2025 IFA class. Yesterday they signed 14 international players (6 from the Dominican Republic, another 8 from Venezuela) and sprinkled out bonuses of at least 300k to seven different guys.

Here’s a few Quick Observations, since there’s obviously limitations as to what we “know” about a bunch of teen-agers in central and south America.

2025 is a lower risk/spread the wealth bonus pool dollar year for the team

The Nats over the last decade have vacillated between high risk and low risk IFA classes, choosing in some years to put all their (bonus money) eggs in one basket and in other years to spread around the wealth.

• All in on 1-2 player classes: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2016
• Spread the Wealth classes: 2025, 2023, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015

2025 seems to be a “spread the wealth” year, with seven announced players netting signing bonuses above $300k.

Their large bonus pool has allowed them to spread the wealth AND give out a big bonus

They’ve taken some big swings in terms of dollar amounts since Rizzo arrived: some of their biggest signing bonuses being:

• 2024: Hurtado, Victor at $2.8M
• 2022: Vaquero, Cristhian at $4.9M
• 2021: Cruz, Armando at $3.9M
• 2016: Antuna, Yasel# at $3.9M

This year’s $1.9M given to Cortesia, Brayan will be the 5th highest bonus since the Juan Soto class in 2015. But, given the four figures above and the relative “success” we’ve seen out of them … it may be considered a bargain.

Would anyone here say that their four big swings listed above have panned out? We’ve litigated Antuna to death, but right now Cruz, Vaquero, and Hurtado are not exactly trending positive. Hurtado hit just .218 in the DSL last year, Vaquero hit .190 in Low-A last year, and Cruz hit .224 mostly in low-A and isn’t even on MLBPipeline’s top 30 prospects for us anymore.

Trivia question: who’s the best Nats-selected/home grown IFA prospect in our system? Probably Andry Lara.

The Class is very Hitter-heavy

Not one of their seven big money guys is a pitcher. Among the 7, we have two Catchers, two SS, one 2B, and two OF. So, it sounds like they’re going to run it back with a lot of the DSL arms there now, most of whom are already 19-20. We’ll have to keep that in mind if we suddenly see a 20yr old starter blowing away 16-17yr olds in the DSL.

The Class is a bit old

There’s just one guy who’s 16 as of the signing date. Most of the class is 17 now and will turn 18 soon after the end of the 2015 season. One guy they signed (RHP Juan Lopez) is already 19; will he even go to the DSL?

They Still have some room in the pool

The known/announced bonus amounts total about $4.9M spread across seven guys. They announced another 7 signees. Usually if a bonus amount is not listed for an IFA, its a standard $10k. If we assume that figure for the remaining seven, then the Nats are leaving about $1.2M on the table right now. Perhaps that’s funds for later IFA signings who might pop up (they have signed IFAs outside of the Jan 15th window in the past), or perhaps the seven remaining all got 6-figure deals that eat into that remainder.

Remember: only half of these guys will ever even get to the US

Here’s a few quick stats on our recent IFA classes. Now, given that this is “early” for the more recent classes, but here’s quick stats on the size of the class and the number of players who moved domestically:

• 2024: 24 players in class, 0 moved domestically, 5 released
• 2023: 23/9/5
• 2022: 20/11/9
• 2021: 20/10/11
• 2020: 3/0/3
• 2019: 21/9/12

So, as you can see, we see roughly half these guys get released right out of the DSL, with the other half making it to the FCL. From there, usually a handful make their way up the chain a little bit, but many of them stall at the Low-A juncture, where they’re forced to go out in the world and travel for the first time.

Our IFA Tracker and the Nats big Board are now updated

Click here for the Nats IFA tracker where I’ve filled in the 2025 class.

Click here for the Nats Big Board, where i’ve put all the 2025 IFA signees into the XST section for now. Odds are they’ll all go to the DSL, but I don’t want to do that assignment until its officially announced.

Lastly, here’s some useful other links for you to peruse, if you’re interested in the IFA 2025 numbers and class:

• Bonus pools for 2025 IFA season: we were at $6.1M
• BA class overview of top prospects: we signed three in the top 100 in Brayan Cortesia, Daniel Hernandez, and Rony Bello.
• BA’s 1/15/25 top players with scouting reports.
• BA’s Jan 15 class signing tracker:
• BA’s International bonus board
• Nats 2025 class introduction story at nationals.com

The first shop to try to do a major rank of Nationals prospects (Prospects1500) has dropped its rankings for our system. Let’s walk through their ranks and I’ll add some comments.

I have a draft 2025 ranking for our system that (believe it or not) goes out to 90 or so guys, which is kind of ridiculous when we currently (according to the Big Board) have 150 signed minor leaguers domestically. But, even given that my draft list is 90 deep, Prospects1500 still managed to rank three players that I don’t have in my top 90, and who have been ranked for the very first time on any list. We’ll get to them later, and discuss whether they should have even been ranked.

Here’s the top 50 for Prospects1500 in a quick table format:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	House	Brady	SS/3B
3	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
4	King	Seaver	SS
5	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
6	Morales	Yohandy	3B
7	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
8	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
9	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
11	Wallace	Cayden	3B
12	Lomavita	Caleb	C
13	Hurtado	Victor	OF
14	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
15	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
16	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
17	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
18	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
19	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
20	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
21	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
22	Made	Kevin	SS
23	Ramirez Jr.	Rafael	SS
24	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
25	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
26	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
27	Reifert	Evan	RHP (Reliever)
28	Feliz	Jose	RHP (Starter)
29	Baker	Darren	2B
30	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
31	Ribalta	Orlando	RHP (reliever)
32	Cruz	Armando	SS
33	Grissom	Marquis	RHP (Reliever)
34	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
35	Millas	Drew	C
36	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
37	Kent	Jackson	LHP (Starter)
38	Shuman	Seth	RHP (Starter)
39	Alvarez	Andrew	LHP (Starter)
40	Acosta	Daison	RHP (reliever)
41	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)
42	Jones	Sir Jamison	CA
43	Choi	Hyun-Il	RHP (Starter)
44	Glasser	Phillips	SS
45	Mota	Jorgelys	SS
46	Cooper	Everett	SS
47	Chapparo	Andres	1B/DH
48	Quintana	Roismar	1B/OF
49	Narango	Joe	1B
50	Pimentel	Brandon	1B

Now, lets do some reactions.

• Their top 5 for our system is essentially the same as every other shop’s top 5, in some order or another. You can quibble with House/Sykora for #2.
• The first bogey; Morales comes in at #6. They’re putting a ton of weight on his AA finish last year. He hit .206 in April but then .357 in September in the same league. I still think this is too high; if he’s 1B only I need to see more homers (just 7 in 435 ABs so far professionally).
• They like Daylen Lile slightly more than me, but so does everyone. Every scouting report I see on this guy says he’s a great contact hitter and a great base-runner. So, where’s the stats? Career .262 batting average (that’s elite bat-to-ball skills?) and just 50 Sbs 255 career games? A .351 OBP for his career? What am I missing here? What makes him any better than Jake Alu (career minor league slash line of .282/.342/.437 with 57 SBs in 420 minor league games, but with more power). I see a 5th OF ceiling. He’s only 22 and in AA, fair point, but he’s also going to be rule-5 eligible after 2025. Based on what you’ve seen, would you protect him right now?
• Victor Hurtado at #13. I’m at least 10 spots lower on this guy right now, and I wonder if they’re looking at the same guy I am. Their line in the link is, “Hurtado is very young but performed well in the Rookie league and has solid tools across the board. He’s one to keep an eye on in this tier.” Uh; “performed well?” He hit .218 in the DSL this season, with almost no speed, no power, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Did anyone check this guy’s stats before they wrote that line? Where’s the ranking for the DSL guys who actually hit this year? Missing, that’s where. We’ll get to that at the bottom when we talk about players not in their top 50.
• They’re lower on Andry Lara than they should be. Quote: “ Lara was a highly touted international signing whose results haven’t matched the ability in his four years with the organization.” Um, again, what are these guys watching? Lara, as a 22yr old, got promoted to AA after a month, then had a 3.63 ERA in 19 starts. Yes, in the macro his minor league stats don’t look that great … but year after year he’s been in leagues where he was among the youngest players there, pitchers or hitters. I’ve got Lara well inside our top 10, not buried in the teens.
• They’re a little higher on Vaquero (18) and Bennett (19) than I am. I’m just not impressed with the size of your signing bonus versus your on-the-field accomplishments. As for Bennett, maybe it isn’t fair to ding him for TJ, but after what we’ve seen from Cavalli, i’m gun shy for sure.
• Kevin Made: this guy seems to be a favorite of prospect hounds everywhere. I don’t see it. I see a guy who has no power and little speed who was the “flier prospect guy” in a deadline deal trade. I’ve got him ranked in the 30s, not just outside the top 20.
• Rutledge and Lord: a tale of two approaches. I see Lord as someone who is still proving in AAA they can be an effective starter, while Rutledge is proving he’s a 2-pitch guy who needs to be a reliever. One of these profiles has much more value than the other: can you guess which one? As a result, i’ve got Lord in the mid-teens and Rutledge outside the top 30 on my rankings, not ranked side by side like this shop.
• They’re not fans of Bazzell at all: MLBpipeline has him #14 in the system.
• Brzycky and Ribalta: i’ve said my peace on ranking relievers. I won’t rank a middle reliever in my top 30 anymore. Even the better middle relievers in our bullpen are barely worth half a win a season, and the best of them (Law and Florio last year) were in the 1.6-1.9 range). It’s far more likely we call up these two guys, they get shelled, they go back down, and they ahve negative bWAR (that describes precisely what all of these guys did in 2024: Adon, Weems, Barnes, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Willingham).

At this point we’re in the 30-50 range, so it’s a little harder to be critical, so I’ll just highlight guys that I think they’re way off on.

• Jeremy De la Rosa at #34: he hit .167 in High-A … then got promoted to AA where he hit .161. He’s now spent parts of 3 seasons in Wilmington and has not been competent. Is he a prospect at all? I mean, they have him above Millas, who a lot of readers right now think should be the backup MLB catcher. I’ve got De la Rosa 30 spots lower in my ranks.
• TJ White: see comments about De la Rosa above for the most part.
• Jackson Kent was ranked #24 by MLBpipeline but 37 by these guys; a season on the field should resolve this.
• They have little faith in Andrew Alvarez.
• They still have Brennar Cox ranked, which seems crazy at this point. Exhibit 1-A on the risks of drafting HS kids.
• Thus, its fitting that they have Sir Jamison Jones at #42, right below Cox. Another prep Catcher who could be decent, could go nowhere. What’s odd is, they put Jones in their top 50 but not a couple of DR prospects who actually hit this year (Dashyll Tejeda and Carlos Tavares). I did not have Jones in my top 90, perhaps an oversight.
• Then, perhaps the oddest rankings on their list: #49 and #50 are two 1B only guys in Naranjo and Pimentel, a MLFA and NDFA. Naranjo hit .208 in Wilmington for us in 2024. Pimentel hit .274 in Fredericksburg … as a 24-yr old man amongst kids. I didn’t have either of these guys in my top 90, but i’ve put them in the 70+ range for now.

Who’s missing?

• As mentioned above, a couple of DSL decent performers for 2024
• Cole Henry: probably not a surprise.
• No Nasim Nunez, who b-r.com has exhausting his rookie status in 2024. By service time, not by PAs. If you wanted to quibble and be like some shops that ignore service time and go by PAs/IPs, i’d have Nunez in the mid 40s.
• Not much else to mention; there’s some names outside their top 50 that have gotten a bit of prospect love in the past (Peterson, Cabrera, Brown, Saenz, etc) who don’t really merit it anymore.

That’s the first big prospect rank. What do you think?