Here’s my “who i’d vote for” on the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.
I’ve fallen out of the habit of doing this post. I did a quick search and the last time I did this was three years ago for the 2022 ballot. I guess, once the PED guys fell off the ballot, it wasn’t nearly as interesting/argumentative. We still have a couple PED guys left, but the massive backlog on the ballot is now gone.
Here’s my reasoning, player by player, on the 2025 ballot.
Methodology/thought process: While I like using WAR and JAWS here, I also like pointing out the “fame” factor. The Hall of Fame is missing players who were better than others b/c they weren’t nearly as famous for one reason or an other, and that’s just the way it is. I only touch on it a couple times here, but it matters.
New Candidates first.
- Ichiro Suzuki: 100% yes. Had 3,000 hits despite not debuting in the MLB until his age 27 season, and had 1200 more hits in Japan. Has a credible argument for being the best pure hitter in the history of the game. 10 straight ASGs in his first 10 years here, a MVP and a ROY in his debut season. Should be unanimous.
- CC Sabathia: Yes. 250 wins (the “new 300”) and 3,000 career strikeouts. He was in the top five Cy Young voting for years in his prime. Absolutely a star, a workhorse, and zero PED accusations. He may struggle to get to 75% b/c his peripherals aren’t awesome (3.74 career ERA, 116 ERA+) but he’ll get in eventually.
- Dustin Pedroia: No. he’s got a credible argument, having better career stats than a slew of 2B who were enshrined by various veteran’s committees. For me, not enough of a sustained peak; he had a ROY and MVP in back to back seasons then kind of disappeared. Basically out of the game by 33, so not enough longevity.
- Ian Kinsler: No. almost identical WAR figures to Pedroia but his overall stats aren’t anywhere close. He’s off by 30 points in BA, was just a shade above average in OPS+, and the closest he ever got to an MVP award was an 11th place finish in 2011. Just not good enough.
- Felix Hernandez: No. He’s a crazy case: from the age of 23 to 29 he was one of the best 2-3 arms in the sport. Won a Cy Young, had two 2nd places and a 4th place, threw a perfect game, had a couple of 170 ERA+ seasons. Then … he struggled for a few years, opted out the Covid year, and never came back. His elbow just gave up on him. He was throwing mid-80s in 2021 when he gave up. Like Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen and Dave Stieb before him, he was great for a while, but not good for enough time.
- Troy Tulowitzki: no. A guy who we thought might revolutionize the position of SS, he just couldn’t stay healthy. He suffered a laundry list of injuries, mostly to his lower half, which eventually drove him from the game at age 34. He never really accumulated enough accolades to even be consiered here.
- No for the rest of the marginal candidates, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Adam Jones, Brian McCann, Carlos Gonzalez, and the sole player here with Nats ties: Fernando Rodney (he played his last year with us in 2019 and is forever on our “Nats to Oblivion” post).
Returning Candidates:
- Billy Wagner: No. I know the argument. If so-and-so mediocre closer gets in (Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman), then so should Wagner b/c his numbers were so dominant. Here’s a simple question for my readers, since Wagner pitched in our division for nearly a decade; did you come to the ballpark to see Wagner come into a 3-run game in the 9th to blow away three mediocre hitters? No? I didn’t think so. He was a closer at a time when there were 10 closers with dominant numbers. I won’t get all mad if he makes it to the Hall, since it’ll be his last year and he only missed by a handful of votes last year, but to me he’s a one-trick pony who was never famous enough to be in the Hall.
- Andruw Jones: Yes. For a decade, he was the next coming of Willie Mays: hit for power, hit for average, amazing defender. Then he fell off of a cliff performance wise, and struggled for 5 years before hanging ’em up at 35. Despite this, he still has 62 career bWAR and ranks 11th all time for CFs in the history of the sport. I’m a yes.
- Carlos Beltran: Yes. He was so good for so long. Never quite got to benchmark hitter thresholds (he had 434 homers, 2725 hits) but had a career 119 OPS+ and he was a true center fielder with 70 career bWAR. Every CF with more career WAR than him is enshrined, and a slew below him are on the way.
- Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez: Yes. you’re either vehemently anti-PED guys and are automatic “No” votes on players like this, or you’re like me and believe the issue just isn’t that simple. If you disagree with me, I get it. This isn’t the hill I’m necessarily willing to die on, but I do believe the Hall is now missing 10 guys who really should be there. In this case, A-Rod and Manny were morons and cheated later in their careers; they were still two of the best players to ever play and the whole point of the Hall of Fame is to bring awareness to the best who ever played, warts and all.
- Chase Utley: No. He’s a better candidate than either Pedroia or Kinsler, but he never had any post-season accolades and he played the game like such an a-hole, purposely trying to injure players, that I’d imagine he’ll struggle to get votes from many writers who remember what he did to players. MLB literally added a rule in the wake of an Utley play (where he broke Ruben Tejada’s leg), and he had at least two other incidents in his career that made it really hard to root for the guy, even if he was on your team.
- No to the rest: Vizquel, Abreu, Rollins, Pettitte, Buehrle, K-Rod, Torii Hunter, David Wright. A couple of these guys i’m shocked they’re still on the ballot.
So my fake ballot would have 6 names on it: Suzuki, Sabathia, Jones, Beltran, Rodriguez, and Ramirez. A long way from the days when we had to drop players to get to the 10-man limit.
Fun read, although I don’t really have a deep conviction about HOF voting. One note about Chase Utley, though I agree that he’s an asshole and I won’t weep if he gets voted in. I’m not sure what you mean by “never had any post-season accolades.” He was a key member of the 2008 WS champion Phillies, and I honestly half-expected him to be voted WS MVP in 2009 even though the Phillies lost.* He had six XBH with FIVE (5) HRs in six games and an OPS of 1.448. It wouldn’t have been unprecedented; Bobby Richardson won WS MVP in 1960 despite the Pirates winning on the walkoff that got Mazeroski into the HOF.
*Although even solely as a PH/DH with only 14 plate appearances it’s hard to argue with Matsui’s insane .615/.643/1.385/2.027 splits
John C.
26 Dec 24 at 6:13 pm
Oh, for an edit function. Read the above as “I won’t weep if he’s NOT voted in.”
John C.
26 Dec 24 at 6:14 pm
ARod and Manny are never getting in, even after/if Bonds and Clemens do. ARod and Manny cheated after it was actually made illegal, got caught, cheated again, got caught again. There’s no doubt that they were exceptional players, and ARod in particular would be an inner-circle guy, but all of that just begs the question of why they felt that that they needed to cheat in the first place, the same question we’ve been asking for years about Barry and Rocket. If nothing was waived for Rose, I can’t see it being waived for these guys (all of whom were much better overall players than Rose).
Beltran had some direct associations with trash cans that likely will keep him out for a while, but I don’t think it will keep him out forever.
The “Eras” committees seem to be opening the doors wider for a “bigger” Hall, with guys like Morris, Baines, Oliva, and Hodges, and just this year Parker and Allen. I thought Allen should have been in years ago, but Parker was an interesting case because his not-quite-there totals were limited fully and directly by his drug use. There’s no doubt that in his prime he was one of the best players in the game. But his prime wasn’t very long, not even as long as King Felix’s.
Andruw Jones’s prime was longer than most of these not-long-enough guys, so even though he petered out relatively young, he’s an absolute yes for me, but then he has been all along. And it wasn’t just all-time inner-circle defense; he has one less career homer than Beltran in 2,400 fewer PAs. He does, however, have a domestic violence issue (something rarely mentioned in relation to Jones or Bonds, but still definitely a thing).
Billy Wagner will get in sooner or later, either now or with one of the “Eras” committees, and I won’t hate it. But I also don’t remember him as “OMG, if they get to the 9th with Wagner coming it, it’s over.” I just don’t remember him as THAT guy. Indeed, he only won the Rolaids award once.
Ichiro will be nearly unanimous. CC will get in eventually but I don’t know about the first year. The sparseness of any other slam-dunk candidates may help him, as it should some down-ballot guys.
Interestingly, Utley and Kinsler are the #1 comps for each other on B-R, although I always thought of Utley as better (despite being an asshole). The B-R sortable stats at 2B have him right around Alomar and Biggio, which is pretty telling. Utley comes up well short in the hits department, though, as do Kinsler and Pedroia. In the smaller Hall days, I don’t think any of them would be in, but the doorway is getting wider (or at least the backdoor way).
I don’t think Tulo will even make it through the back entrance. He just doesn’t sort out that well among the SS brethren, even with Mile High inflation of the numbers in his prime.
I read one voter’s ballot post today who was making the case for David Wright. In looking at his numbers, some of his peak years were even better than Tulo’s. But there’s just not enough — 1777 hits, 242 homers. Allen and Rolen had some similar “counting stat” deficiencies, but they also had more recognition along the way.
So . . . if I were a voter, I imagine that I would face the conundrum that I assume a number of voters this year are facing. I could vote for Ichiro and CC, and for Andruw based on on-the-field performance. I’m not sure how you weigh his domestic violence case against Beltran’s trash cans, but more right now seem to be willing to vote for Jones than for Beltran.
I think Wagner, Utley, and Beltran ultimately will get in, but I’m not inspired to vote for them right now. Of those three, Beltran has the best case.
(Jones and Beltran rank in the same small pack of CFs in WAR, WAR7, and JAWS. They’re actually part of a trio in that sorting . . . with a one-and-done guy, Kenny Lofton. He didn’t have the power numbers of the other two, but advanced stats put him right there with them. If Richie Ashburn is in without much power, Lofton definitely rates.)
KW
26 Dec 24 at 8:05 pm
I’m a big “Lofton should be in the HOF” guy. I loved watching him play even when he was destroying teams that I was rooting for. Just an excellent all-around baseball player.
John C.
27 Dec 24 at 12:34 pm
As we’ve been reminded over the last week, Rickey was in a class by himself as a disrupter, but my next tier would be Lofton and Raines. And Lofton was a much better defender (four GG) at a more difficult position. We really haven’t seen the likes of those guys again since their time. I thought that Trea had the tools to be that type of player, but he never learned to weaponize his speed like they did, nor did he get on base at a clip around .400 OBP like those guys did in their prime.
CF rankings by JAWS (*=HOF):
1. Mays*
2. Cobb*
3. Speaker*
4. Mantle*
5. Trout
6. Griffey Jr.*
7. DiMaggio*
8. Snider*
9. Beltran
10. Lofton
11. A. Jones
12. Ashburn*
13. Dawson*
14. Billy Hamilton*
Lofton is 9th in WAR and 12th in WAR7, all in the same stellar company. Yet he got only 3.2% of the vote in 2013 and was off the ballot. Admittedly, that was a loaded (10 guys subsequently in the Hall) and conflicted ballot (1st year for Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa), and no one actually got elected. Man, what a squad you could field from that ballot:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2013.shtml
Even sorting in that elite company, Lofton was 8th in JAWS, 9th in WAR7, and 10th in WAR.
KW
27 Dec 24 at 1:42 pm
With the D-Backs signing Burnes for a lot of scratch, you would think that Montgomery would be available for about half a broken bat, with at least $5M of his salary paid. I don’t think many playoff teams would take a chance on Montgomery because it would be a significant chance. But the Nats are in a position to take on a risk like that and might get a decent return in flipping him if he clicks. He’s only signed for 2025, so it isn’t a long-term contract anchor.
As for Burnes, as I’ve noted all winter, I don’t think that contract ends well. I think he’s a Corbin, who will be good for a year or two and then just start eating innings, for $35M a year.
KW
28 Dec 24 at 8:51 am
not to hijack the HOF post but you bring up an interesting option in Montgomery. I was all in on him last year and still think his disappointing season had a lot to do with missing spring training. the only question mark is where the young success stories of ’24 fit in to this plan. not to mention the rehabbers.
FredMD
28 Dec 24 at 9:48 am
I think you’d agree that there’s no such thing as too much pitching. We have no idea what Cavalli’s condition is, but even best case he will be innings-limited. So will Soroka, who only pitched 79 last summer. Gray won’t be back until late summer, if at all. As great a story as Irvin, Parker, and Herz have been, there’s always a fear that at least one will turn into a pumpkin at some point. Rutledge likely would benefit from another year at AAA and/or a move to the ‘pen.
It certainly would be an unusual rotation with four lefties, though — Montgomery, Gore, Parker, and Herz. Or Herz or Parker might move to the ‘pen for a while.
KW
28 Dec 24 at 1:34 pm
Nats sign Josh Bell for 1/$6M, presumably to DH only (his best defensive position), since they traded for a Gold Glove 1B. I thought this might be a possibility. Bell had his best seasons in Washington. He was decent at the end of last season after the trade to AZ (121 OPS+). I know some who wanted a bigger bat won’t be thrilled by this move, but for $6M, there’s basically no risk. And he’s well known by the management so presumably will be a good “veteran presence.”
KW
29 Dec 24 at 10:13 pm
in another episode of the devil you know, Trevor Williams reportedly back with a two year deal
FredMD
30 Dec 24 at 10:07 am
I’m good with a Trevor Williams reunion, if they’ve got good medical reports on his recovery. The signing of both Williams and Soroka really makes me wonder about the medical status of Cavalli, though. They’ve got Gore, Irvin, Parker, and Herz semi-established as starters, and Gray will be back next season, with Williams still around on a two-year deal.
There’s been talk of making Cavalli a closer, although I think that’s been more internet speculation than coming from the team (and maybe from one of the BA five-year projections?). Herz was always thought to be a reliever candidate, although I’d argue that Parker, with more funk in his delivery, might be better.
Obviously none of these are major moves, but I do think the Nat squad has inched closer to .500. That’s not contending, but it’s better than 90+ losses of four straight seasons.
KW
30 Dec 24 at 10:40 am
as you correctly posted a couple days back, you can never have too much pitching.
given Cavalli’s extended absence I expect at least two months in AAA, maybe a late start due to the weather in upstate NY. I also expect one of Herz or Parker to be there with him.
of course, there are still six weeks where someone could be dealt.
FredMD
30 Dec 24 at 11:25 am
A lot of teams need back-end starting pitching. I would would trade one from among Irvin, Parker, or Herz for a league-average 3B under a couple of years of control, looking for deal similar to where the Nats acquired Bell from the Bucs for Wil Crowe. Of these, I think I would be most willing to part with Irvin, in part because he’s older, in part because his numbers seemed to have leveled off at “this is what you get.”
Unless someone gets hurt (always a possibility with pitchers), one from among Irvin/Parker/Herz figures to start the year back at AAA anyway, as FredMD notes, as will Cavalli. With Cavalli, Lord, Stuart, and Alvarez, and Lara knocking on the AAA door (and already on the 40-man), it figures that the Nats would still have starter depth if they traded one of the “found gold” trio.
KW
30 Dec 24 at 1:04 pm
We should think of the starter signings as improving the bullpen also. Soroka and Williams both have a lot of bullpen experience (though both will surely be in the rotation on opening day. If Herz can’t stick as a starter, many (including me) think he has the repertoire to anchor a bullpen.
For me, Gore, Williams, and Soroka are going to be in the OD rotation absent injury. I think Irvin is probably a lock too, leaving Parker and Herz to battle for the last spot.
One of my great frustrations with the Nats FO is the unwillingness to use starters in the bullpen. I think the Nats have some real starter depth in the org and don’t need to have Parker or Herz “stretched out” in AAA to handle the inevitable injury. Both of those guys can get MLB hitters out and one should be in the MLB bullpen. I don’t think that will happen, though, which means the MLB bullpen is going to be a real weakness
Derek
30 Dec 24 at 1:21 pm
new posted on latest moves.
Todd Boss
30 Dec 24 at 3:56 pm