We’re a month into the 2026 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back the monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). This always ends up being one of the main posts I look forward to researching and writing each month, and we’ll continue the format from years’ past.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).
- Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
- AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
- AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
- High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
- FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)
All Stats quoted are as of 4/30/26’s games.
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
- End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
Changes since end of last Month: Butera has been using Poulin as an “opener” for Mikolas, but technically he’s still the pitcher expected to go the most innings on that day in the rotation. Otherwise, the rotation has not changed for the first month of the season.
Rotation Observations: We have two solid starters in Griffin and Cavalli. Griffin is getting national attention for his start and is looking like a steal that may fetch a pretty penny at the trade deadline. Cavalli’s numbers are a bit deceiving (3.82 ERA and 1.66 whip) but his peripherals show us what’s really going on: a 2.84 FIP thanks to a ridiculous .419 BABIP he’s carrying right now. His walks are a bit high, but nothing he’s throwing is leaving the yard (just a 3.3 FB/HR percentage). Dare I say it? Cavalli is looking like the 1st rounder we’ve been waiting for, for years.
Irvin is about what we expected: a 5th starter quality guy who has good days and bad.
Then there’s the problem children. Mikolas and Littell are tied for the league lead in Earned Runs allowed so far, and every 4th flyball Littell throws ends up in the stands. Mikolas has been so bad that the manager has relied on an opener to get through the first inning AND AAA call-ups to mop up innings knowing that he can barely get through the order once. Littell is even worse: he’s got a FIP north of 9.00 … and that’s with a BABIP of .268! He’s actually set to get worse. The team has $7m tied up in Littell but just $2.25M in Mikolas, and he looks washed up. I think he gets another month, tops, before the 37-yr old is released.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Mikolas
Bullpen comments: Not great. When you open the season with a slew of MLFAs and waiver claims as your bullpen, you’re asking for trouble. Plus, the starters have been so bad that the bullpen has been taxed to the point were every single 40-man arm except Perales has been put to use … and we’re a month into the season. We’ve already lost Waldichuk for the year and our two best arms Beeter and Henry) are on the DL. This seems like its going to get bad, fast. The 3 arms in AAA available for call-up include Rutledge and Fernandez, who were awful in short MLB stints.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
- End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
Changes since end of last Month: Parker got the call-up and stuck, which necessitated the promotion of late-spring MLFA signing Champlain to move to AAA (where he probably should be anyway). Ogasawara came up for a couple spot starts to cover for when Alvarez and Cornelio covered innings in MLB, but he’s back in AA (where he probably should be).
Rotation Observations: Cornelio’s era/fip aren’t great but he’s got a 32/13 K/BB in 21IP. I’d expect this kind of swing and miss to get him the majors first amongst the 40-man starters. Lara and Champlain have probably been the most effective of the starters so far, with ERAs in the mid 3s, a 28/4 K/BB, and workable FIPs. That’s great news for Lara’s sake, in that he was DFA’d in January but didn’t get claimed; he seems like he’s earning his way back onto the 40-man and may get a chance sooner than later. Alvarez is experiencing a bit of a letdown after not making the MLB roster, but he’s on the 40-man and was pretty effective in his brief callup. Perales is walking too many guys, but remains the highest ranked prospect starter of the bunch. However, his middling numbers are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof.
Next guy to get promoted: I’d have to think Alvarez would be the next starter promoted if they needed it, but with Parker already up there they seem like they’ll continue to use Alvarez and Cornelio as they have; middle long relief. Maybe the team eventually cuts bait with both Mikolas and Littell and both Alvarez and Cornelio will get the call.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: none of these guys are pitching their way out of the rotation due to 40-man status or prospect status. The team has the least invested in MLFA Champlain, so if someone in AA really needed moving up, I’d guess Champlain would make way.
Bullpen comments: Yean and Gott are the two guys in the AAA bullpen with MLB experience who could get call-ups relatively easily, and both are pitching relatively well in AAA. Penrod has 14 walks and 14 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s some Nuke Laloosh work right there. The rest of the bullpen in AAA are guys with ERAs in the 5-6 range; it’s ugly.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
- End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Kent
- Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan
Changes since end of last Month: Swan got hurt and was replaced by Kent, but Ogasawara only managed to get one start in the month as he bounced up and back; the rest of the starts were openers/bullpen games started by relievers.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). He’s young (he’s 20), and he’s still a prospect, but he’s just walking too many guys. Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far. Kent looks very solid in his first four starts, even if they were pretty short, and he continues to be an underrated starter prospect in the system. Luckham may have permanently established his ceiling as a pro; he’s been tried out in AAA twice now and has gotten shelled; now he’s 26 and in his 5th pro season.
Next guy to get promoted: Ogasawara has already been the guy who gets the first call up and would be again. After him, its probably Kent.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham.
Bullpen comments: Connor Van Scoyoc has been effective in long relief and could slot in as a spot starter if need be. Luke Young is having a solid start to the season. Erick Mejia probably should be in AAA; not sure why he got dumped down to AA after finishing last season there. Holden Powell may be running out of time; he’s in his 6th pro season and is repeating AA for the fourth year.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
- End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
Changes since end of last Month: Bruni was the opening day starter, but really only because Sullivan was apparently a late scratch that day. Sullivan was then sent down and replaced by the promoted Lyon. Bruni remains a LR but hasn’t started again.
Rotation Observations: Randall is the class of the group right now, with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.80 whip, and a 21/3 K/BB ratio. The 2024 3rd rounder was our bounty (along with the injured RJ Sales) for former closer Finnegan last year, and he’s already looking like he needs to be pushed to AA. Maddox is holding his own so far with decent if not spectacular numbers. Tejeda is walking too many guys and if he can clear that up he’ll have similar numbers to Maddox. Polanco is the oldest of the group and is getting shelled; he’s got a .338 BAA and has given up 6 homers in 17IP so far. That’s not good, especially since Wilmington is a pitcher’s park. Lyon has two starts but just 4 IP, so it seems like the team is still trying to figure out who their 5th starter is. They’ve got a couple of candidates on the 15day (Sthele and Tepper), so maybe one will come back soon.
Next guy to get promoted: Randall
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Polanco
Bullpen comments: Aldonis and Hill have been pitching the best out of the bullpen, but most of the High-A pen is getting shelled. Whips north of 1.6, and more than a few ERAs in the 8s and 9s. Six of the relievers in Wilmington were MLFAs or Rule5 draftees, thus brand new to this org and presumably grabbled due to a gap in our pitching development pipeline. Hopefully there’s reinforcements bubbling up from Low-A soon.
Low-A Fredericksburg
Note: Low-A has been doing mostly “tandem” starts, with each guy named going 3IP each night.
- Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
- End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
Changes since end of last Month: The initial five “starters” have stayed relatively consistent, even if the “2nd guy in” has switched around slightly.
Rotation Observations: We’re seeing some really promising stuff out of Low-A right now. 2024 big-bonus prep kid Sime has exploded onto the scene with crazy K numbers: he’s got 32ks in 14IP. He’s also got 11 BBs in those 14Ip, so not all is great, but he’s only given up six hits in his first 5 starts. Harmon, our other 2024 big-money prep pitcher, doesn’t have 16 k/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. There’s several other names here who have solid numbers to build on: Fischer and Meckley are the oldest of this group at 23 and 22 respectively and are showing signs that they’re close to solving the level. Portorreal is the only guy who doesn’t seem to be getting ‘tandemed” and he’s easily the worst of these starters: just 9 Ks in 18ip.
Next guy to get promoted: Meckley.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Portorreal
Bullpen comments: Jared Beck line for the month: 12IP, 19Ks 16 walks, 3 hits and a hilarious 0.81 BAA. Well, if you don’t throw it over the plate they can’t ever get a chance to hit it. I once walked 8 straight times to open a Babe Ruth season; my OBP remained north of .500 for basically the entire year as a result. Bryant Olsen another one: 21/10 K/BB in 11 innings. Sullivan is a weird one: he started the year in High-A, got demoted, and he’s fallen apart to the tune of an ERA in the 12s.
That’s it for April 2026.