Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Keith Law’s Nats top 20 for 2025 has some surprises

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Seaver King will be top of Law’s list for our system once Crews graduates. Photo via opendorse

Law just released his top 20 for the Nats system.

Keith Law has always been somewhat of a contrarian in these prospect rankings, and for good reason. His methodology for each year basically throws out last year’s results and starts over, which allows him to break free of a “prospect-retention” paradigm that plagues some ranking shops. This logic eliminates players like Elijah Green, who has performed so terribly in low-A but who was so highly regarded (and highly paid) as an upper-1st rounder in 2022. It also basically eliminates high-bonus IFA guys who have scuffled in the low minors (a methodology I agree with as well). As a result, Law often ends up with some names ranked in places that we havn’t seen before, which we’ll cover below.

Law also proven himself, especially this year, as a talent evaluator who isn’t afraid to dream on newly drafted players, especially college players, and may have some of them over-drafted.

Law’s stuff is behind a paywall, so y ou miss out on his per-player evaluations (which are insightful), but here’s his top 20:

RankLast NameFirst NamePosition
1CrewsDylanOF (CF)
2KingSeaverSS
3SykoraTravisRHP (Starter)
4HouseBradySS/3B
5SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
6BazzellKevinC/3B
7ClemmeyAlexLHP (Starter)
8CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
9DickersonLukeSS/CF
10StuartTylerRHP (Starter)
11LomavitaCalebC
12MoralesYohandy3B
13WallaceCayden3B
14LileDaylenOF (CF)
15LaraAndryRHP (Starter)
16Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
17MadeKevinSS
18BennettJakeLHP (Starter)
19DiazRandalSS/3B
20CranzRobertRHP (Reliever)

As is tradition, lets run through this list top to bottom.

  • It goes without saying that so far, Law is tops on Seaver King, having him at #2 in the system. We knew this was coming b/c when Law released his top 100 for the entirety of the Minors two weeks ago, King was listed ahead of Sykora. Law projects him as a SS in the majors, with great speed, sneaky power, but his hit tool is the best. Can’t wait to see him in Wilmington this year.
  • The rest of the top 5 is as expected, in about the expected order. He’s worried about Sykora’s mechanics (but, to be fair, Law is worried about a lot of pitcher’s mechanics), worried about House’s lack of BB rate in AAA, and worried about Susana’s inability to get LHB out.
  • Quick deeper dive into Susana, because I think some of this stuff is fascinating. Here’s his fangraphs page. For the entirety of 2024, he had a BABIP of .372. .372!! That’s ridiculous, and is why his ERA was in the 4s but his FIP was in the 2s. You don’t often see a full 2-point delta between pitchers’ ERA and FIP. Here’s his MILB stats page with 2024 splits. Law pointed out that LHB had a .407 OBP against him last year; he had a 1.98 WHIP against lefties versus a 0.97 whip against righties. He attributes this to his 3/4 slot and lack of command. It sounds to me like he needs to develop a change-up that can keep lefties off-balance. The thing is, these are fringe issues with a guy who also hits 100, holds upper 90s deep into games, and doesn’t have a ton of effort in his delivery. I cannot wait to see what he does when he hits AA.
  • Coming in at #6: Bazzell. Phew, by far the high man on this guy. Most other shops have him in the 14-15 range. I sense his ranking is assuming that Bazzell hits like he did in college AND plays Catcher; if he’s playing 3B he’s not quite as high of a prospect. With both Bazzell and Lomavita drafted in the same draft, one has to think one is going to Low-A and the other to High-A. I find it kind of interesting that Law has Bazzell so much higher than Lomavita, who was drafted ahead/paid out more in the same draft. Honestly, this is too high for Bazzell.
  • He has Dickerson inside the top 10, entirely on tools. I also think this is too high, especially for a cold-weather prep kid who hasn’t yet taken a pro at bat. Like with IFAs, I like to see at least some production in the FCL before saying someone is a top 10 prospect.
  • Some love for Tyler Stuart, one of a handful of AAA starters we were just talking about as generally being underrated by prospect watchers (along with Lord and Alvarez). Remember: Baseball America had Stuard #25.
  • Morales at #12. Law had Morales ranked #6 this time last year, and in his writeup he freely admits that a) Morales had a hand injury all year and b) he “seemed” ok once he returned in August. So, like all the other shops that have dropped him … i’m just kind of at a loss. I have him #6 on my list, right now, and I don’t plan on dropping him.
  • He has Lile down at #14. And, it’s almost like he was reading the comments i’ve been making about him. Here’s a direct quote from Law about Lile: “Lile might be a tweener, lacking the power for an outfield corner and with just a fringe-average defense in center, leaving him in Fourth Outfielder Town, which is only two stops away from DFAville.” EXACTLY what i’ve been saying for a while now in the comments. Honestly, if Lile blows up and starts hitting .330 this year, we should just trade him. There’s more and better outfielders already in the majors, and more and better CF prospects in the minors behind him.
  • He’s just slightly lower on Lara than most others. Unlike Susana above, his BABIP upon reaching AA was really low, which blows up his FIP as compared to his actual ERA. His per-pitch scouting report basically shows him with slider as his #1 pitch, and the other three being 40s or 45s. That’s not good. I’ll be curious to see how this plays out, but Law is predicting him to be a 2-pitch middle reliever despite being so young and projecting to the AAA rotation.
  • Hassell at #16. I think Its time for me to just admit that Hassell may not be the top-end prospect I have hoped for. Law prints a shocking stat: “He didn’t have a single extra-base hit off a lefty in 76 PA last year, and had just three (all doubles) off them in 2023, for a .218 slugging percentage off southpaws over two years.” That is patently amazing. Here’s his 2024 splits. Indeed: 61 ABs versus LHPs last year and zero XBH for a slash line of .213/.319/.213. Here’s something else interesting: he was legitimately good leading off (.285/.363/.381) but patently awful when batting lower in the order. Is that someone who’s literally pouting b/c he’s not leading off? So strange. Nonetheless, its hard to ignore this, and a full season in AAA with lefty specialists may do even more to expose him.
  • Made at #17: i just don’t get it. I have him in the mid-30s and even that’s a stretch. But Law seems to admit the same, saying, “This is almost a placeholder — he has enough of a base of other skills to be a utility infielder, as long as he starts to hit the ball harder. If he doesn’t do that, he’s not a prospect.” At this point, i’m leaning towards the latter, having him buried in the mid 30s. Honestly, if you had to rank SS in our system right now, you’d go MLB starter: Abrams, MLB backups: Nunez/Rosario. AAA depth: Lipscomb, Made, then you have mid-minors prospects with promise like Cruz, King, and Diaz, Ramirez (who should be your AA, High-A, and Low-A starters in 2025), then you’ve got prep/DSL prospects with promise like Dickerson and Feliz. So, not a lot of pure prospect depth in the system of for-real guys who project to stick at SS … but if Made is hitting .220 in AA and you have 1st rounder Seaver King waiting in the wings producing in High-A … what are you gonna do? Made may only be 22 but he’s certainly at a cross-roads where he has to prove he’s not the next coming of Nasim Nunez.

Ok, so here’s where I have to eat some crow, having blasted BA’s list. Because the last two guys on Law’s list are surprises for sure.

  • #19: 2024 5th rounder Randal Diaz. This is a first time ranking anywhere for Diaz, and coming out of the 2024 draft he was not one of the handful of guys I even was projecting into the top 50. It’s one thing to rank our top bonus guys in our top 20 automatically (King, Lomavita, Dickerson, and Bazzell). It is another to do down-ballot prospect ranking, especially for under-slot 2nd day guys like Diaz and Cranz. I guess Diaz has gotten some attention lately thanks to his making the Puerto Rican national team; if he’s a sneaky good 2nd day draft pick for us, all the better. He’ll presumably get the Low-A starting SS job and we’ll see how it goes.
  • #20 2024 7th rounder Robert Cranz. BA also rated Cranz relatively highly, having him come in at #24. Law thinks Cranz is a 4-pitch guy who may start. But, again, as i said in the BA review … if he is a 4-pitch starter quality guy, why didn’t he frigging start in college?? I took a quick glance at OK State’s baseball stats for 2024: they had two guys who were full time Fri/Sat starters, then gave Sunday and midweek starts to a slew of guys while keeping Cranz basically as a stopper, not even the closer (just 2 saves). I mean, yes there’s value to a guy like that, but there’s more value to having a guy who can go 6ip with 1r. So I repeat the same thing I asked in the last post; if Cranz was this good, why the F wasn’t he starting in college? Are Oklahoma State’s baseball staff so stupid as to think that a middle reliever provides more value than a starter? Because more and more, that’s what its looking like; a patent failure in talent evaluation at that program.

Honorable mentions: these clearly aren’t the guys ranked 21-25, but he calls out a few notables. Sam Peterson, Angel Feliz (who i’ve mentioned already and who is in my top 20), Ramirez, Vaquero, and Sir Jamison Jones.

players not on his top 20 of note:

  • Feliz: who did produce as a big $ IFA and who is at the back-end of my top 20.
  • Lord, mentioned before as not really being a flashy guy but who produced like crazy in 2024.
  • No love for Pinckney, even if the Nats have given him a NRI invite two years in a row.
  • No mention of our 2025 IFA signings, which is common with law; he’s like me and wants to see some production and not just ranking of the signing bonus.
  • Green, as discussed ad nauseum.

Written by Todd Boss

February 6th, 2025 at 12:22 pm

Posted in Prospects

ESPN and McDaniel top 10 for 2025 Reaction

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Clemmey climbing up the prospect ranks. Photo via WP

Honestly, just giving a top 10 for a system is almost like taking a remedial course in college just so you can get an A on your transcript. In year’s past McDaniel has gone much deeper (22 prospects in 2024, 28 in 2023, 32 or more in 2022), so maybe we’ll get a more comprehensive list eventually, but for now, here’s his top 10 for the Nats system.

Quick thoughts.

  • Four of these players are in his top 100, a high mark for any of the overall top 100 lists.
  • He retains confidence in House, unlike Law, BA, and MLBPipeline.
  • Interestingly he has Sykora below Susana, also a first in this off-season.
  • King at #5 is now pretty standard after the top 4 names.
  • Clemmey and Cavalli remain on his top 200, though one has to think Cavalli’s last year of being a prospect is 2025. He’s either going to produce in the majors or become our most high profile 1st round failure since Romero
  • This is the highest we’ve seen either Lile or Lomavita.
  • Wallace at #10 means he’s creeping up, and it’ll be super interesting to see how the organization handles/juggles playing time for both Wallace and House if they’re both in AAA. One has to make way for the other, especially since House is the better bet to be a longer-term 3B in the majors.

Not making the top 10, but who are top 10 calibre on other lists:

(This is not criticism of this top 10, which is pretty solid honestly, but here’s some players who have made top 10 lists on other shops so far this year):

  • Hassell
  • Morales
  • Lara
  • Dickerson
  • Chapparo (which was on a fantasy-focused list, so that’s an outlier)

I’m not sure you’re making an argument for any of these five over Lile or Wallace. Ok, maybe if it was ME i’d make an argument over Lile, but i’m low-man on Lile and high-man on Hassell.

One last thing: McDaniel’s callout for prospect ot watch is Dickerson, which we’ve heard a couple times already. Super excited to see what he can do in 2025.

Written by Todd Boss

February 4th, 2025 at 10:51 am

Posted in Prospects

Baseball America’s 2025 Top 30 Prospects for Nats System Analysis and Reaction

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Sykora will be the Nats #1 overall prospect in just a few weeks into the new season. Photo MASN

The first of the five “major” shops/pundits that evaluate and rank prospects (BA, MLBPipeline, Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel) released their top 30s for systems today…. and boy is the Nats list weird.

I’ll go through the list as always, offering up opinions and observations.

First off, here’s their top 30.

baLast NameFirst NamePosition
1CrewsDylanOF (CF)
2SykoraTravisRHP (Starter)
3SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
4HouseBradySS/3B
5KingSeaverSS
6ClemmeyAlexLHP (Starter)
7CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
8LomavitaCalebC
9WallaceCayden3B
10LileDaylenOF (CF)
11DickersonLukeSS/CF
12Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
13BennettJakeLHP (Starter)
14BazzellKevinC/3B
15FelizAngel3B/SS
16PinckneyAndrewOF (Corner)
17CortesiaBrayanSS
18MillasDrewC
19LaraAndryRHP (Starter)
20RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)
21BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)
22MoralesYohandy3B
23GreenElijahOF (CF)
24CranzRobertRHP (Reliever)
25StuartTylerRHP (Starter)
26HernandezDanielC
27NunezElijahOF (Corner)
28VaqueroCristianOF (CF)
29LordBradRHP (Starter)
30RomeroBrayanRHP (Starter)

Here we go.

top 10

  • Same top 4 as everyone else, albeit dinging House a little bit. BA notes the same concerns that Law had with House, namely that he had like a 3% walk rate in AAA. I don’t think he’s ready for the Majors and can’t quite believe he’ll win the job out of MLB camp this spring, which would give him time to add some patience to his approach and not start his service time clock so early.
  • Clemmey up at #6. I might be a little high on Clemmey in comparison to where i’m seeing him in other shops (the 5 rankings I have for him so far this off season go 6-7-6-6-6). Fair enough; he’s a young 19yr old who struck out 123 in 92 low-A innings. That doesn’t suck.
  • Unlike some ranking shops who have given up hope on Cavalli, BA has him right there at #7. I’ve got him slightly lower based on fear that he’s not ever coming back, but BA has stayed strong.
  • They’re super high on Lomavita at #8. This is a trend that we’ll see in this BA list the rest of the way; very bullish on brand new kids who have shown almost nothing yet at the pro level.
  • I remain low-man on Lile, as discussed here multiple times, but BA having him at #10 tracks with most other shops.

Here’s 11-20.

  • Ok, here’s where this starts to go off the rails. You have Dickerson at #11, who has zero pro at bats, and Hassell #12, who’s ended the season in AAA before he turned 23. Um. What are we doing here? Hassell likely gets MLB at bats THIS YEAR, even if he’s hitting .200 in AAA, because he’s now on the active roster. Dickerson may not even make the Low-A team in April. I get that prospect lists are a balancing act between floor and ceiling … but this one seems crazy to me.
  • BA remembers how good Bennett was, and kept him exactly at #13, which is where they ranked him in Jan 2024. I wonder how quickly he gets back to High-A. Fairly or not, I’ve got him well lower on my rank, as do most other shops.
  • The first appearance of 2025 IFA class star Brayan Cortesia on any ranking list, coming in at #17. With all due respect to his $1.9M bonus, this is way too high. Then again, I’m loath to rank a player anywhere in the top 30 these days until they make it to the FCL.
  • Drew Millas at #18. Why? He’s frigging 27 and he’s a backup catcher as a ceiling and has been for five years. That’s not a prospect anymore; that’s called an org guy.
  • How the hell is Andry Lara so low? I dunno, maybe i’m the only guy impressed by a guy with an ERA in the 3s as a 21yr old in AA never missing a start? Ok, maybe he’s not a top 5 prospect, but tell me you’d rather have Bennett (6 slots higher) than Lara right now.
  • Rutledge at #20 ; they still have faith. I don’t. Unless he’s moving to the bullpen, what makes anyone think they’ll see anything different out of the guy in 2025?

21-30 … with obvious caveats about players in this range… but man there’s some crazy names here.

  • Brzycky at #21: i’m on record saying this is too high for relievers, but whatever.
  • Morales at #22. Wait, what?? Every other shop so far, including me, has him in the 8-9 range. #22?? In August of 2024, BA had him at #6 in the system, and in their scouting report they explicitly say that he had a thumb injury that hampered his production this year. Bennett misses a y ear to TJ and doesn’t get dinged a single slot, but Morales (who finished strong post injury) gets knocked down nearly 20 spots?? This makes no sense. But don’t worry, this isn’t even the dumbest ranking yet.
  • At #24 I give you Robert Cranz. In case you don’t recognize the name, he was a 7th round pick in 2024, signed for $100k UNDER slot, was a reliever in college and went straight into Fredericksburg’s bullpen, where he threw a handful of playoff innings. #24 in the system. I didn’t have him in my top 90. In the scouting report it says the Nats may make him a starter … uh, if he could start, why didn’t he do so in college?? This ranking makes zero sense to me.
  • Meanwhile, one slot later they have Tyler Stuart at #25, who STARTED 25 games last year between AA and AAA. I just don’t get it; you’d rank a college reliever with 6 pro innings higher than a starter who “solved” AA at age 24?
  • Daniel Hernandez, 2025 IFA signing at #26. Sure.
  • #27 Nasim Nunez, who had so few PAs last year that he still remains rookie eligible for shops like BA, who ignore service time. I wouldn’t have him this high, but wouldn’t be upset if someone ranked him in the 30s.
  • Like Stuart, Brad Lord’s rise to AAA seems to be greeted at BA with a sniff. He’s at the back end of their top 30. Perhaps its just me impressed by what Lord has done. I think the knock on Lord is a lack of a 4th pitch. But, he’s a sinker guy, so often guys like this don’t bother learning two fastballs since their value is getting hitters to drive the ball into the ground.
  • Rounding out the top 30, one last laugher; Brayan Romero. I almost wonder if this ranking is a joke to see if anyone’s paying attention. He posted a 5.52 ERA in Low-A this year as a 22yr old. Ok, so I understand he missed a season and he’s tooled up. But really.

Players they don’t have in their top 30 that I do:

  • Chapparo: he’ll probably be on the MLB team, whether that counts for anything or not.
  • Victor Hurtado and Armando Cruz: so we love Cortesia and his big bonus, but one-season-in Hurtado? Or Cruz, who (earned or not) ended the season in High-A?
  • Darren Baker: I guess MLB-roster backup infielders aren’t as valuable as low-A middle releivers.
  • Andrew Alvarez. Making AAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
  • Jackson Kent: wasn’t he the heralded arm out of the upper rounds of our 2024 draft? MLBPipeline has him in the mid 20s.
  • Don’t forget about Rafael Ramirez

So, there you are. Strange one, this list was.

Written by Todd Boss

January 29th, 2025 at 4:27 pm

Posted in Prospects

ST 2025 NRI Analysis

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House is the highest profile NRI this year. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

You know we’re getting close to Spring Training when the annual press release goes out announcing Non-Roster Spring Training Invitees (NRIs). The Nats announced the initial crop this week, immediately forgot at least a couple guys who have ST invites on their transactions page, and probably will add more as they sign up veteran FAs, but for now here’s who we have:

(Note: the NRIs are color coded purple on the Big Board for tracking)

  • Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord, Tyler Stuart, Konnor Pilkington, Jarlin Susana, Joan Adon,
  • Relief pitchers: Daison Acosta, Marquis Grissom Jr., Clay Helvey, Jack Sinclair,,
  • Catchers: Andrew Knizner, Caleb Lomavita, Max Romero Jr., and Brad Lindsley (left off Nats announcement)
  • Infielders: Brady House, Yohandy Morales, Cayden Wallace
  • Outfielders: Daylen Lile, Andrew Pinckney, Franchy Cordero (left off press release)

The list includes a huge chunk of our projected AAA roster: i’d say of the 16 NRIs listed here, 14 of them will be in AAA to start the year. In fact, the only ones who won’t be in AAA are Susana and Romero, both probably heading to AA.

NRIs are important. Believe it or not, more than a dozen of 2024’s NRIs eventually played in the majors last year, some with pretty significant roles. So this group collectively will play a big role for the 2025 team. Traditionally 3-4 will make the team out of ST to open the season, while others get called up.

NRIs generally fall into several categories:

  1. Top Prospects getting their first shot with the big boys: this describes at least Susana, Lomavita, House, Morales, Wallace, and Lile. I suppose Pinckney is here as well since he doesn’t qualify for any of the other categories.
  2. Starters to eat split squad innings: I would throw Lord and Stuart in this bucket, along with Adon.
  3. Catchers, because we need people to catch all these ST bullpen sessions: Knizner, Romero, Lindsley
  4. Veteran MLFAs who were promised the NRI as a condition of signing: Helvey, Plington, Cordero
  5. Under-the-Radar relievers who might be useful middle relievers: Acosta, Grissom, Sinclair

Is Adon still a prospect? After four option years, what exactly does the team need to see here? Perhaps they’re planning on converting him to relief, so he’d fall into category #4.

The team has already signed a dozen MLFAs for 2025, but only a couple have NRIs. This in and among itself is a message, but some of the non-NRIs are surprising.

  • We have a MLFA 28yr old catcher CJ Stubbs on the AAA roster right now: no NRI.
  • Andrew Alvarez is slated to be in the AAA rotation; no NRI.
  • We’ve heard people rave about reliever Carlos Romero: no NRI.
  • The only lefty reliever in AAA Garvin Alston? no NRI.
  • We’ve signed several aged 28-30 MLFAs who got assigned to AA straight away, an indication they’re just org arms.
  • We’ve also signed several younger relief arms this month, all in the 23-25 range, newly 6-year FAs after being young IFA signings; these kind of guys may need more seasoning and aren’t candidates to join the bullpen.
  • A few rule-5 candidates we talked about at length but no NRI include Solesky, De la Rosa, Made, and Shuman, which probably tells us what we need to know about the organization’s thought about these guys.

Who’s likely to make the team out of this list? Probably a bit early to predict, but I only count 9 total relievers on the entire 40-man right now, one of whom is out with TJ. So, there’s opportunities here for especially the arms who can slot into bullpen spots.

We didn’t really talk about the top prospects in camp. Of them, House seems the most likely to win a starting job, based on the lack of a FA 3b signing. We’ve litigated him to death; no he’s not ready, he probably needs to prove himself for a half season in AAA. The rest of the prospects all seem slated for either AA or AAA to get more time in the minors. I’m intrigued by Morales’ potential … but the team has basically bought itself enough 1B/DH cover that it seems unlikely for him to break camp.

Thoughts?

Written by Todd Boss

January 24th, 2025 at 12:55 pm

BBWAA Elects three to the Hall

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Sabathia is a 1st ballot HoF guy. Photo wiki/flickr chris.ptacek

The class of 2025 is now set.

Two first-ballot hall of famers in CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki will join last-gasp 10th ballot electee and Virginia native Billy Wagner in Cooperstown later this year. They’ll be part ofa 5-man class, joined by selectees David Parker and Dick Allen.

Here’s some quick thoughts.

1,. Billy Wagner

In my HoF fake ballot post, I said i wouldn’t have voted for him. I went back and searched all my fake ballot posts going back to 2017 … and I’ve never really vacillated from this stance. In a couple of posts I said, “eh, maybe” on Wagner but I was never a yes. I think its a product of my reliever bias in general, whether it’s evaluating the value of a closer or the value of a prospect.

Nonetheless, you can’t argue with his dominance. A 187 CAREER ERA+ is nothing to shake a stick at, and I’m glad he’s in.

2. CC Sabathia

Sabathia becomes a first ballot Hall of Famer. I’ve always liked Sabathia and its a great honor to cap his career. Funny how nobody ever accused him of being a PED guy. He was more likely to be accused of being an all-you-can-eat buffet violator, not a drug test violator.

However, here’s a thought exercise for you. Here’s two arbitrary players overall career stats.

  • Player A: 256-153 W/L, 3.85 career ERA, 117 career ERA+. 531 career games, 2448 career Ks. 3 ASG, 4 times in the Cy Young top 5 voting. 276 post season innings, 3.81 post season ERA.
  • Player B: 251-161 W/L, 3.74 career ERA, 116 career ERA+. 561 career games, 3093 career Ks. 6 ASG, 5 times in Cy Young top 5 but won one. 130 post season innings, 4.38 career postseason ERA.

One of these players is first ballot hall of famer CC Sabathia. The other is Andy Pettitte, who never got above 27% support for the Hall. When you go to baseball-reference and scroll down to “Similarity Scores” for Pettitte … guess who is #1? You guessed it: Sabathia.

Does this make sense to you?

3. Ichiro Suzuki

The obvious storyline here is the one gutless BBWAA anonymous voter who left Suzuki off his ballot. There’s not a soul in the sport who can support denying Suzuki a vote. So he joins a small group of players who were denied unanimous induction by either one vote (Derek Jeter) or a handful of votes (Griffey missed 3 votes, Cobb 4, Seaver 5, Ryan 6, Ryan 8). Did you know that Babe Ruth was ommitted on NINE ballots in 1936?? Can you imagine the outcry in today’s social media landscape? The hated Ty Cobb got more votes than Ruth on the original HoFame ballot.

Anyway.


Next closest on the ballot were Beltran with 70% in his 3rd try, and Jones with 66% on his 8th try.

I support both candidates. Yes Beltran was embroiled in the Houston trash can banging scheme, but his career was clean during a time when PED was rampant. Jones was the next coming of Willie Mays until he wasn’t; I like both guys, and both have a good shot of going in soon. The 2026 ballot doesn’t exactly have inspiring first-time candidates: the highest bWAR new candidates are Cole Hamels (just 163 career wins) and Ryan Braun (with his testosterone test nonsense), so voters may lean into existing candidates a bit more. But, that’s a conversation for a year from now.

Written by Todd Boss

January 22nd, 2025 at 10:48 am

Posted in Awards,High School

Nats 2025 IFA class Quickie Reactions

20 comments

Here’s a quick overview of the Nats 2025 IFA class. Yesterday they signed 14 international players (6 from the Dominican Republic, another 8 from Venezuela) and sprinkled out bonuses of at least 300k to seven different guys.

Here’s a few Quick Observations, since there’s obviously limitations as to what we “know” about a bunch of teen-agers in central and south America.

2025 is a lower risk/spread the wealth bonus pool dollar year for the team

The Nats over the last decade have vacillated between high risk and low risk IFA classes, choosing in some years to put all their (bonus money) eggs in one basket and in other years to spread around the wealth.

  • All in on 1-2 player classes: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2016
  • Spread the Wealth classes: 2025, 2023, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015

2025 seems to be a “spread the wealth” year, with seven announced players netting signing bonuses above $300k.

Their large bonus pool has allowed them to spread the wealth AND give out a big bonus

They’ve taken some big swings in terms of dollar amounts since Rizzo arrived: some of their biggest signing bonuses being:

This year’s $1.9M given to Cortesia, Brayan will be the 5th highest bonus since the Juan Soto class in 2015. But, given the four figures above and the relative “success” we’ve seen out of them … it may be considered a bargain.

Would anyone here say that their four big swings listed above have panned out? We’ve litigated Antuna to death, but right now Cruz, Vaquero, and Hurtado are not exactly trending positive. Hurtado hit just .218 in the DSL last year, Vaquero hit .190 in Low-A last year, and Cruz hit .224 mostly in low-A and isn’t even on MLBPipeline’s top 30 prospects for us anymore.

Trivia question: who’s the best Nats-selected/home grown IFA prospect in our system? Probably Andry Lara.

The Class is very Hitter-heavy

Not one of their seven big money guys is a pitcher. Among the 7, we have two Catchers, two SS, one 2B, and two OF. So, it sounds like they’re going to run it back with a lot of the DSL arms there now, most of whom are already 19-20. We’ll have to keep that in mind if we suddenly see a 20yr old starter blowing away 16-17yr olds in the DSL.

The Class is a bit old

There’s just one guy who’s 16 as of the signing date. Most of the class is 17 now and will turn 18 soon after the end of the 2015 season. One guy they signed (RHP Juan Lopez) is already 19; will he even go to the DSL?

They Still have some room in the pool

The known/announced bonus amounts total about $4.9M spread across seven guys. They announced another 7 signees. Usually if a bonus amount is not listed for an IFA, its a standard $10k. If we assume that figure for the remaining seven, then the Nats are leaving about $1.2M on the table right now. Perhaps that’s funds for later IFA signings who might pop up (they have signed IFAs outside of the Jan 15th window in the past), or perhaps the seven remaining all got 6-figure deals that eat into that remainder.

Remember: only half of these guys will ever even get to the US

Here’s a few quick stats on our recent IFA classes. Now, given that this is “early” for the more recent classes, but here’s quick stats on the size of the class and the number of players who moved domestically:

  • 2024: 24 players in class, 0 moved domestically, 5 released
  • 2023: 23/9/5
  • 2022: 20/11/9
  • 2021: 20/10/11
  • 2020: 3/0/3
  • 2019: 21/9/12

So, as you can see, we see roughly half these guys get released right out of the DSL, with the other half making it to the FCL. From there, usually a handful make their way up the chain a little bit, but many of them stall at the Low-A juncture, where they’re forced to go out in the world and travel for the first time.

Our IFA Tracker and the Nats big Board are now updated

Click here for the Nats IFA tracker where I’ve filled in the 2025 class.

Click here for the Nats Big Board, where i’ve put all the 2025 IFA signees into the XST section for now. Odds are they’ll all go to the DSL, but I don’t want to do that assignment until its officially announced.

Lastly, here’s some useful other links for you to peruse, if you’re interested in the IFA 2025 numbers and class:

Written by Todd Boss

January 16th, 2025 at 11:46 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Prospects 1500 Nats top 50

63 comments

Crews remains #1 on the list… not for long. Photo via Crews’ instagram page.

The first shop to try to do a major rank of Nationals prospects (Prospects1500) has dropped its rankings for our system. Let’s walk through their ranks and I’ll add some comments.

I have a draft 2025 ranking for our system that (believe it or not) goes out to 90 or so guys, which is kind of ridiculous when we currently (according to the Big Board) have 150 signed minor leaguers domestically. But, even given that my draft list is 90 deep, Prospects1500 still managed to rank three players that I don’t have in my top 90, and who have been ranked for the very first time on any list. We’ll get to them later, and discuss whether they should have even been ranked.

Here’s the top 50 for Prospects1500 in a quick table format:

RankLast NameFirst NamePosition
1CrewsDylanOF (CF)
2HouseBradySS/3B
3SykoraTravisRHP (Starter)
4KingSeaverSS
5SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
6MoralesYohandy3B
7ClemmeyAlexLHP (Starter)
8Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
9CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
10LileDaylenOF (CF)
11WallaceCayden3B
12LomavitaCalebC
13HurtadoVictorOF
14StuartTylerRHP (Starter)
15GreenElijahOF (CF)
16LaraAndryRHP (Starter)
17DickersonLukeSS/CF
18VaqueroCristianOF (CF)
19BennettJakeLHP (Starter)
20PinckneyAndrewOF (Corner)
21FelizAngel3B/SS
22MadeKevinSS
23Ramirez Jr.RafaelSS
24RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)
25LordBradRHP (Starter)
26BazzellKevinC/3B
27ReifertEvanRHP (Reliever)
28FelizJoseRHP (Starter)
29BakerDarren2B
30BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)
31RibaltaOrlandoRHP (reliever)
32CruzArmandoSS
33GrissomMarquisRHP (Reliever)
34De La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)
35MillasDrewC
36WhiteT.J.OF (Corner)
37KentJacksonLHP (Starter)
38ShumanSethRHP (Starter)
39AlvarezAndrewLHP (Starter)
40AcostaDaisonRHP (reliever)
41CoxBrennerOF (CF)
42JonesSir JamisonCA
43ChoiHyun-IlRHP (Starter)
44GlasserPhillipsSS
45MotaJorgelysSS
46CooperEverettSS
47ChapparoAndres1B/DH
48QuintanaRoismar1B/OF
49NarangoJoe1B
50PimentelBrandon1B

Now, lets do some reactions.

  • Their top 5 for our system is essentially the same as every other shop’s top 5, in some order or another. You can quibble with House/Sykora for #2.
  • The first bogey; Morales comes in at #6. They’re putting a ton of weight on his AA finish last year. He hit .206 in April but then .357 in September in the same league. I still think this is too high; if he’s 1B only I need to see more homers (just 7 in 435 ABs so far professionally).
  • They like Daylen Lile slightly more than me, but so does everyone. Every scouting report I see on this guy says he’s a great contact hitter and a great base-runner. So, where’s the stats? Career .262 batting average (that’s elite bat-to-ball skills?) and just 50 Sbs 255 career games? A .351 OBP for his career? What am I missing here? What makes him any better than Jake Alu (career minor league slash line of .282/.342/.437 with 57 SBs in 420 minor league games, but with more power). I see a 5th OF ceiling. He’s only 22 and in AA, fair point, but he’s also going to be rule-5 eligible after 2025. Based on what you’ve seen, would you protect him right now?
  • Victor Hurtado at #13. I’m at least 10 spots lower on this guy right now, and I wonder if they’re looking at the same guy I am. Their line in the link is, “Hurtado is very young but performed well in the Rookie league and has solid tools across the board. He’s one to keep an eye on in this tier.” Uh; “performed well?” He hit .218 in the DSL this season, with almost no speed, no power, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Did anyone check this guy’s stats before they wrote that line? Where’s the ranking for the DSL guys who actually hit this year? Missing, that’s where. We’ll get to that at the bottom when we talk about players not in their top 50.
  • They’re lower on Andry Lara than they should be. Quote: “ Lara was a highly touted international signing whose results haven’t matched the ability in his four years with the organization.” Um, again, what are these guys watching? Lara, as a 22yr old, got promoted to AA after a month, then had a 3.63 ERA in 19 starts. Yes, in the macro his minor league stats don’t look that great … but year after year he’s been in leagues where he was among the youngest players there, pitchers or hitters. I’ve got Lara well inside our top 10, not buried in the teens.
  • They’re a little higher on Vaquero (18) and Bennett (19) than I am. I’m just not impressed with the size of your signing bonus versus your on-the-field accomplishments. As for Bennett, maybe it isn’t fair to ding him for TJ, but after what we’ve seen from Cavalli, i’m gun shy for sure.
  • Kevin Made: this guy seems to be a favorite of prospect hounds everywhere. I don’t see it. I see a guy who has no power and little speed who was the “flier prospect guy” in a deadline deal trade. I’ve got him ranked in the 30s, not just outside the top 20.
  • Rutledge and Lord: a tale of two approaches. I see Lord as someone who is still proving in AAA they can be an effective starter, while Rutledge is proving he’s a 2-pitch guy who needs to be a reliever. One of these profiles has much more value than the other: can you guess which one? As a result, i’ve got Lord in the mid-teens and Rutledge outside the top 30 on my rankings, not ranked side by side like this shop.
  • They’re not fans of Bazzell at all: MLBpipeline has him #14 in the system.
  • Brzycky and Ribalta: i’ve said my peace on ranking relievers. I won’t rank a middle reliever in my top 30 anymore. Even the better middle relievers in our bullpen are barely worth half a win a season, and the best of them (Law and Florio last year) were in the 1.6-1.9 range). It’s far more likely we call up these two guys, they get shelled, they go back down, and they ahve negative bWAR (that describes precisely what all of these guys did in 2024: Adon, Weems, Barnes, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Willingham).

At this point we’re in the 30-50 range, so it’s a little harder to be critical, so I’ll just highlight guys that I think they’re way off on.

  • Jeremy De la Rosa at #34: he hit .167 in High-A … then got promoted to AA where he hit .161. He’s now spent parts of 3 seasons in Wilmington and has not been competent. Is he a prospect at all? I mean, they have him above Millas, who a lot of readers right now think should be the backup MLB catcher. I’ve got De la Rosa 30 spots lower in my ranks.
  • TJ White: see comments about De la Rosa above for the most part.
  • Jackson Kent was ranked #24 by MLBpipeline but 37 by these guys; a season on the field should resolve this.
  • They have little faith in Andrew Alvarez.
  • They still have Brennar Cox ranked, which seems crazy at this point. Exhibit 1-A on the risks of drafting HS kids.
  • Thus, its fitting that they have Sir Jamison Jones at #42, right below Cox. Another prep Catcher who could be decent, could go nowhere. What’s odd is, they put Jones in their top 50 but not a couple of DR prospects who actually hit this year (Dashyll Tejeda and Carlos Tavares). I did not have Jones in my top 90, perhaps an oversight.
  • Then, perhaps the oddest rankings on their list: #49 and #50 are two 1B only guys in Naranjo and Pimentel, a MLFA and NDFA. Naranjo hit .208 in Wilmington for us in 2024. Pimentel hit .274 in Fredericksburg … as a 24-yr old man amongst kids. I didn’t have either of these guys in my top 90, but i’ve put them in the 70+ range for now.

Who’s missing?

  • As mentioned above, a couple of DSL decent performers for 2024
  • Cole Henry: probably not a surprise.
  • No Nasim Nunez, who b-r.com has exhausting his rookie status in 2024. By service time, not by PAs. If you wanted to quibble and be like some shops that ignore service time and go by PAs/IPs, i’d have Nunez in the mid 40s.
  • Not much else to mention; there’s some names outside their top 50 that have gotten a bit of prospect love in the past (Peterson, Cabrera, Brown, Saenz, etc) who don’t really merit it anymore.

That’s the first big prospect rank. What do you think?

Written by Todd Boss

January 6th, 2025 at 12:21 pm

Posted in Prospects

Nats playing the hits with recent signings

35 comments

Lets hope we get 2024 Trevor and not 2023 Trevor. Photo a via usatoday

We had some pretty clear cut needs heading into the off-season. Starter depth, a power-hitting 1B/DH option, maybe a 3B, and some bullpen help. In order to fill these spots, the team has turned to some familiar faces.

The Nats have announced a couple of veteran player signings in the past couple of days, both with very recent ties:

Additionally we’ve acquired a couple more unhearalded players in minor moves:

So, what do these moves tell us? In no particular order:

Pitching prognosis with moves so far:

  • With both Williams and Soroka signed, not only do the Nats not trust that Cavalli is ready to go to start 2025 … they think he may not becoming back for a while.
  • They now have 7 healthy starters for 5 spots to open the season, and Herz in particular may have just lost his starter role. We’ll have a good old 5th starter competition all spring.
  • No, I don’t see them doing a 6-man rotation.
  • I’m guessing we go Gore, Williams, Irvin, Parker, Soroka as the rotation to open the season, with Herz in AAA and Cavalli either on the DL or in AAA himself.
  • Yes, Soroka was in the bullpen last year; they didn’t spend $9M to have a middle reliever; he’s gonna be tested as a starter to see if he can reclaim his prior starting glory.
  • No, I don’t believe they’ll put Williams in the bullpen; not on a 2yr deal and not after his all-star level performance to open last season. They’re going to see if he can repeat his performance of 2024. And if he can, he’ll be trade bait unless this team is in the Wild Card race in July. He should be the #2 starter of this squad behind Gore going opening day.

Bats prognosis with moves so far:

  • Lowe for a reliever we got off the garbage heap is found money (Robert Garcia == waiver claim in August 2023 from Miami). Fantastic trade. I don’t care if Lowe isn’t a long term solution at 1B; we can replace Garcia easily enough (he had a negative bWAR in 2024).
  • Bell clearly will be the primary DH, and since he’s a switch hitter he could slot in at 1B when the team faces a lefty and put a RH bat like Chapparo or Yepez in the DH slot for the day.
  • Bell was a solid 3-win player for us a couple years ago but has now played for 5 teams in 3 years and i’m sure wouldn’t mind some stability. But, he also has to know exactly what he’s signed up for with a one year deal; a chance to shine first half and earn a trade to a contender.
  • These two moves probably dump Chapparo or Yepez to AAA; neither should start at 3B (Tena for now) and there’s not enough bench bats to go around. Assuming we’re looking at Adams as the backup C (no options), Baker as one utility infielder (Nunez can go hit .200 in AAA), either Garrett or Call as the 4th OF, and then either Chapparo or Yepez as that 1B/DH bench bat, there’s just one bench spot left, and we havn’t talked about House winning the opening day 3B job and/or acquiring a veteran 3B.

Do these moves make us better in 2025?

  • Williams alone should be a 6-win player if he pitches as he did last year. But that’s rare air; lets assume he regresses from his 2.03 ERA of last year but still gives us 5-win pace performance all year.
  • Soroka would replace Corbin’s -0.9 bWAR season with something positive; even his 4.74 ERA season was positive on the bWAR stable, and if he falters we replace him with Herz (who put up a near-1 win season in his 19 starts).
  • So that’s a swing of at least 4 full wins just in the rotation, before considering expected incremental improvements from guys like Gore and Irvin, who were improving all year.
  • Meanwhile on the bat side; we got negative bWAR out of both 1B and 3B, two of your most important bats on the field. We should get something positive out of what we have now for 3B, and we’re clearly improving 1B so that’s a 2-3 win swing right there as well.
  • This is how you go from 71 wins to 77 wins without much fanfare. Then you count full seasons and growth from Wood and Crews and suddenly you’re a .500 team.

Lastly…

  • As much as I don’t want to admit it, the signings of Bell, Williams, Soroka, the acquisition of Lowe … these are not “we’re competing in 2025” moves. These are “i’m acquiring flippable assets for the 2025 trade deadline” moves once again. There does not seem to be a 9-figure FA signing in the cards to shake things up, because .. well why would we at this point? There’s no reason to spend money unless you can see the target in sight. That’s what we learned in 2011, the last time Rizzo was architecting a dynasty.

Written by Todd Boss

December 30th, 2024 at 3:00 pm

Posted in Nats in General

2025 Hall of Fame Ballot – How i’d vote

15 comments

Here’s my “who i’d vote for” on the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

I’ve fallen out of the habit of doing this post. I did a quick search and the last time I did this was three years ago for the 2022 ballot. I guess, once the PED guys fell off the ballot, it wasn’t nearly as interesting/argumentative. We still have a couple PED guys left, but the massive backlog on the ballot is now gone.

Here’s my reasoning, player by player, on the 2025 ballot.

Methodology/thought process: While I like using WAR and JAWS here, I also like pointing out the “fame” factor. The Hall of Fame is missing players who were better than others b/c they weren’t nearly as famous for one reason or an other, and that’s just the way it is. I only touch on it a couple times here, but it matters.

New Candidates first.

  • Ichiro Suzuki: 100% yes. Had 3,000 hits despite not debuting in the MLB until his age 27 season, and had 1200 more hits in Japan. Has a credible argument for being the best pure hitter in the history of the game. 10 straight ASGs in his first 10 years here, a MVP and a ROY in his debut season. Should be unanimous.
  • CC Sabathia: Yes. 250 wins (the “new 300”) and 3,000 career strikeouts. He was in the top five Cy Young voting for years in his prime. Absolutely a star, a workhorse, and zero PED accusations. He may struggle to get to 75% b/c his peripherals aren’t awesome (3.74 career ERA, 116 ERA+) but he’ll get in eventually.
  • Dustin Pedroia: No. he’s got a credible argument, having better career stats than a slew of 2B who were enshrined by various veteran’s committees. For me, not enough of a sustained peak; he had a ROY and MVP in back to back seasons then kind of disappeared. Basically out of the game by 33, so not enough longevity.
  • Ian Kinsler: No. almost identical WAR figures to Pedroia but his overall stats aren’t anywhere close. He’s off by 30 points in BA, was just a shade above average in OPS+, and the closest he ever got to an MVP award was an 11th place finish in 2011. Just not good enough.
  • Felix Hernandez: No. He’s a crazy case: from the age of 23 to 29 he was one of the best 2-3 arms in the sport. Won a Cy Young, had two 2nd places and a 4th place, threw a perfect game, had a couple of 170 ERA+ seasons. Then … he struggled for a few years, opted out the Covid year, and never came back. His elbow just gave up on him. He was throwing mid-80s in 2021 when he gave up. Like Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen and Dave Stieb before him, he was great for a while, but not good for enough time.
  • Troy Tulowitzki: no. A guy who we thought might revolutionize the position of SS, he just couldn’t stay healthy. He suffered a laundry list of injuries, mostly to his lower half, which eventually drove him from the game at age 34. He never really accumulated enough accolades to even be consiered here.
  • No for the rest of the marginal candidates, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Adam Jones, Brian McCann, Carlos Gonzalez, and the sole player here with Nats ties: Fernando Rodney (he played his last year with us in 2019 and is forever on our “Nats to Oblivion” post).

Returning Candidates:

  • Billy Wagner: No. I know the argument. If so-and-so mediocre closer gets in (Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman), then so should Wagner b/c his numbers were so dominant. Here’s a simple question for my readers, since Wagner pitched in our division for nearly a decade; did you come to the ballpark to see Wagner come into a 3-run game in the 9th to blow away three mediocre hitters? No? I didn’t think so. He was a closer at a time when there were 10 closers with dominant numbers. I won’t get all mad if he makes it to the Hall, since it’ll be his last year and he only missed by a handful of votes last year, but to me he’s a one-trick pony who was never famous enough to be in the Hall.
  • Andruw Jones: Yes. For a decade, he was the next coming of Willie Mays: hit for power, hit for average, amazing defender. Then he fell off of a cliff performance wise, and struggled for 5 years before hanging ’em up at 35. Despite this, he still has 62 career bWAR and ranks 11th all time for CFs in the history of the sport. I’m a yes.
  • Carlos Beltran: Yes. He was so good for so long. Never quite got to benchmark hitter thresholds (he had 434 homers, 2725 hits) but had a career 119 OPS+ and he was a true center fielder with 70 career bWAR. Every CF with more career WAR than him is enshrined, and a slew below him are on the way.
  • Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez: Yes. you’re either vehemently anti-PED guys and are automatic “No” votes on players like this, or you’re like me and believe the issue just isn’t that simple. If you disagree with me, I get it. This isn’t the hill I’m necessarily willing to die on, but I do believe the Hall is now missing 10 guys who really should be there. In this case, A-Rod and Manny were morons and cheated later in their careers; they were still two of the best players to ever play and the whole point of the Hall of Fame is to bring awareness to the best who ever played, warts and all.
  • Chase Utley: No. He’s a better candidate than either Pedroia or Kinsler, but he never had any post-season accolades and he played the game like such an a-hole, purposely trying to injure players, that I’d imagine he’ll struggle to get votes from many writers who remember what he did to players. MLB literally added a rule in the wake of an Utley play (where he broke Ruben Tejada’s leg), and he had at least two other incidents in his career that made it really hard to root for the guy, even if he was on your team.
  • No to the rest: Vizquel, Abreu, Rollins, Pettitte, Buehrle, K-Rod, Torii Hunter, David Wright. A couple of these guys i’m shocked they’re still on the ballot.

So my fake ballot would have 6 names on it: Suzuki, Sabathia, Jones, Beltran, Rodriguez, and Ramirez. A long way from the days when we had to drop players to get to the 10-man limit.

Written by Todd Boss

December 26th, 2024 at 3:26 pm

Posted in Hall of Fame

Nats Win 2025 Draft Lottery!

76 comments

I suppose it is only fitting that, one year after we “won” the 2024 draft lottery (but were ineligible because of being classified a “big market team” despite the fact that we get the exact same amount of RSN revenue as the Baltimore Orioles by rule, and they’re considered a “small market team” that literally gets Competitive Balance picks every year … but I digress), the Nats “won” the 2025 Draft Lottery and will pick 1st overall in the 2025 draft. We had the 4th best chance (around 10% overall) of getting picked, and we got lucky for the 2nd year in a row.

We’ll now have the 3rd #1 overall pick in the history of the franchise. The first two worked out pretty well … so expectations are pretty high. Based on the current state of the qualifying offer and other comp picks, the Nats will pick 1st overall, then have the 49th pick overall in the 2nd round, the 87th overall pick in the third round, and then roughly every 30 picks there on out (some teams are already forfeiting 5th rounders with QO-assigned FA signings, so we won’t know the exact draft order for the top 5 rounds for a while).

Bonus pools will be announced later, but by virtue of having #1 overall, we’ll have a massive pool to work with. The first pick alone will probably be worth close to $11M (last year’s #1 overall draft slot was worth $10.5m), which is important because the #1 overall pick will not sign for anywhere close to that figure (Travis Bazzana, last year’s 1-1 pick, signed for $8.95M, which gave Cleveland an extra $1.5M to work with), which means the Nats may have some major flexibility to sign another Luke Dickerson-type in the upper rounds and essentially get an additional 1st-round quality guy.

So, all that said, who is in the mix right now for 1-1 overall in 2025? Here’s a few names that have been in play since I started tracking the 2025 draft class. Remember, lots can change in a draft class once the baseball season starts next spring, but for now, there’s two HS guys and a handful of college guys at the top of most draft boards.

Prep guys:

  • Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS, Oklahoma. The brother of 2022 1-1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday. Ok State commit. Consensus 1-1 pick as of Dec 2024 pre 2025 season on several draft boards.
  • Seth Hernandez, RHP, Elite Charter Academy HS, Temecula, Calif. Vanderbilt commit. 90-93, reaching 95 as HS sophomore. Top prep arm on board, projecting top 10 of 1st round, improving late 2024.

College guys:

  • Jace Laviolette, RF TAMU. D1 Fresh AA. 20/20 season as a freshman. Risen to be 2025 1-1 candidate with 29-HR sophomore season.
  • Jamie Arnold, LHP Starter from Florida State. 11-3, 2.98 ERA as sophomore in ACC.
  • Tyler Bremner, RHP UC Santa Barbara. blew up in 2024, going 11-1 with 2.54 ERA and 104/21 K/BB in 88 IP. Top RHP on board.
  • Cam Cannarella, SS/CF Clemson. D1 fresh AA, ACC Fresh of the year. slashed .388/.462/.560, Team Usa. Took a small step back sophomore year, went from 24SBs to zero (why?) but power stayed put.
  • Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina. slashed .367/.456/.609 with 17 homers, Sun Belt Fresh of year, then continued in Cape with Wood to vault to top 10 status. Numbers fell across the board soph season, dinging prospect status.

One last comment. I’ve already seen some comments about Laviolette in particular, which are along the lines of, “well we already have plenty of outfielders, we should draft for need.” YOU DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED IN BASEBALL. This isn’t the NBA, where you draft someone to immediately go into the 5-man starting lineup and you have to consider who you have in your current point guard position and how long they’re signed for; this is baseball, where players move around positions, where they may look great now but hit a plateau at AA or AAA, or get hurt and miss two seasons (ahem Cavalli). You draft the Best Player Available and if/when that player starts to push an existing veteran, so be it; you cross that bridge when you get there.

Right now, on December 11th, 2024, the #1 pick projection is absolutely Ethan Holliday. His brother destroyed the minor leagues, was the #1 prospect in baseball for most of 2024 and debuted as a 20yr old. Ethan is not his brother: he’s 4-inches taller and projects more like a corner bat/corner outfielder like his father versus a 6-0″ agile defender like his brother. If you told me Ethan would have his dad’s career right now, I’d take it (44 bWAR, 300homers, career .300 hitter with power). Sign me up.

It’s great to dream on a player … but you just never know what can happen in a spring baseball season. The #1 overall pick we get may be someone we’ve never heard of. Paul Skenes went from a decent Air Force hurler in a nothing conference to a guy putting up circus strikeout numbers at LSU in a year, to being the All Star Game starter and nearly winning the Cy Young in his rookie season … so we’ll see what happens as the spring season unfolds.

All that said, this is a great event for the franchise and could absolutely help lead the team back to a decade of prosperity.

Written by Todd Boss

December 11th, 2024 at 9:35 am