Nationals Arm Race

Instead of doing the last “Prospect check-in” post, I thought we’d just dive right into a macro analysis of our prospects.

As we wrap up the 2026 minor league seasons, I thought it would be a good time to put pen to paper and give a ranking of where our prospects sit at the end of the season. I did this last year too, thinking it was better to do prospect rankings in September than in April, when all the thoughts and analysis of players is a bit fresher. We may add more prospects with trades and another IFA signing class over the winter, and maybe we’ll revisit this at the end of Spring training with the benefit of all the professional ranks.

This is also a good crowd sourcing post for this community to pipe up about someone I have too high, too low, or missing altogether. I definitely “missed” some players in the post-season 2025 ranking, and as I double/triple checked this list I found a couple others that I had missed too. During my typo-review of this post, I probably would have tweaked some ranks as well here and there, but I didn’t want to completely rewrite the thing.

This list includes players who ended the season on the MLB roster but who still have rookie eligibility as still being “prospects” (names like Cornelio, Perales, etc). If a player has exhausted rookie eligibility by PAs or IP, they’re not here. I’ve generally not included any MLFAs we signed in 2026, assuming they’re on one year deals and will leave the org. There are a few 6-year MLFAs to be on this list, and there’s some that may declare MLFA after the end of the season (Holden Powell is the only 2020 or previous year draftee who qualifies here at this point, Andry Lara is the only 2019 IFA that we originally signed who remains, but trade asset Kevin Made also was an 19IFA who I think could declare after the WS ends). If so we’ll remove them in the off-season.

Methodology: To compile this list, I went through all prospects who I’d ranked previously, or who have ever appeared on a ranking list as a starting point. I ensured that every starting pitcher on a full season squad was represented, as well as any positional starter who wasn’t a 26MLFA. This included most of our 2026 trade receipts and the top few rounds of prospects from the 2026 draft. This ended up being a bit more than 115 players of the approximately 145 non-40 man players we have in the entire domestic system. I’ve given some thought to just ranking EVERY single farmhand, but I don’t know if there’s value of adding 30 more middle relievers, bench players, and 17yr-old DSL players at the end of the list. Let’s just say that if you’re in the bullpen of Low-A, you’re not a prospect and I’m not bothering to try to rank you unless you make it to AAA.

I then put them into groups of 10 that I’ll end up discussing below. In the end, once you’re outside of the top 40 or so, there’s not a ton of difference between players within a grouping (meaning, the 51st player isn’t appreciably different from the 59th ranked player), but I tried to make sure that a player in the 50s is distinctly more valuable than someone in the 70s.

In the writeups, instead of going player by player, i’m going to write a bit about notables or arguable players in the sections. If there’s a player who i generally diverge from the last few prospect rankings, I’ll talk about why.

Hope you enjoy. Feel free to tell me who I’ve got way too high or way too low and I’ll consider adjustments for next Spring’s list.

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1-10:

1 Eli Willits SS
2 Seaver King SS
3 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter)
4 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter)
5 Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (Starter)
6 Devin Fitz-Gerald SS
7 Gavin Fein SS
8 Chris Hacopian 2B
9 Jackson Kent LHP (Starter)
10 Landon Harmon RHP (Starter)

Comments: For the most part, I don’t think this is too controversial a top 10. I think Eric Longenhagen is being ridiculous with his #30 ranking for King, and based on his 2026 stats he’s clearly our system #2, and most other major shops also agree. Sime up to #5 may be a bit arguable, but I believe his 2026 season merits it, and the struggles of both Fitz-Gerald and Fein pushed them down a little bit in my book. I could see why one may push back on Fitz-Gerald and Fein being this high; maybe they should be after Hacopian and Kent. Splitting hairs perhaps. I’m still not entirely sold on Kent’s future state, worrying that he’s the next iteration of DJ Herz or Mitchell Parker; lefty starters who solved the minors but who just couldn’t cut it in the majors. Harmon at #10 is the classic “prep RHP big bonus kid who could be the next coming of Verlander … or who may never make it out of A-Ball.” I had him exactly at #10 in April, and his 2026 did nothing really to raise or lower him. I really hope he has a healthy, breakout 2027 and he finishes the season in the AA rotation. The few starts he gave us in 2026 were more than promising.

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11-20

11 Samil Serrano OF (Corner)
12 Ronny Cruz SS
13 Chase Brunson OF (CF)
14 Harry Ford C
15 Coy James SS
16 Ethan Petry 1B/OF (Corner)
17 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B
18 Jack Cebert RHP (Starter)
19 Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (Starter)
20 Marconi German SS

Comments: Yes this is super-high for Serrano, but it’s completely inline with the other ranking shops after he crushed DSL after getting a big Jan 2026 bonus. One may think Cruz belongs wherever Fitz-Gerald is, or perhaps the reverse (FitzGerald should be more like 12-13 instead of where i’ve got him at #6) … but Cruz struggled a bit more upon his promotion, and had further to rise from the beginning of 2026, so just outside of top 10 sounds right. I have no idea how good Brunson is; I’ve just got him ranked roughly where other shops have him. Ford: he’s fallen a long way since being perhaps our #2 prospect, but anyone who thinks he’s too low has to explain why he hit .223 in AAA and is hitting .189 in the majors. I’ve put Wallace way back into play here with his .900 OPS and near 30-homer season. Oh, and he’s batting 3rd for the 90-win AAA team in the playoffs. Cebert and Tejeda together makes sense: Cebert has better numbers, but Tejeda is younger; both in AA after mid-season promotions. German may not be long for SS but has continued to produce moving from DSL->FCL.

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20s:

21 Alejandro Rosario RHP (Starter)
22 Luke Williams SS
23 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter)
24 Davian Garcia RHP (Starter)
25 Luke Dickerson SS/CF
26 Riley Cornelio RHP (Starter/Reliver?)
27 Sam Peterson OF (CF)
28 Josh Hartle LHP (Starter)
29 Isaac Lyon RHP (Starter)
30 Yohandy Morales 3B

Comments: Clemmey falling all the way here is just acknowledgement that his current path has stalled completely. I had him #6 at the beginning of the season. This might be too high for Garcia, but a 23yr old starting the year in AA is nothing to sneeze at, then he went straight to the full season DL. I have Dickerson well below other shops (Espn/McDaniel has him #7!!) because I’ve really just yet to see anything that makes me think, “wow this guy is going to be awesome.” He’s now got more than 700 Minor league at bats at a combined .214/.352/.363 slash. Somehow he made the end-of-season Low-A all star team hitting .233 and striking out 117 times in 93 games.

Is Cornelio actually too low? I dunno; it seems like he’s destined for the bullpen based on usage so his upside is limited. But, after a rocky MLB start he’s yet to give up an earned run in September and now has a very solid ERA+ for the year. Isaac Lyon is an interesting one: he started 2025 in Fredericksburg and ended it in Rochester. that’s 3 promotions in a season for a pretty unheralded draft pick; maybe #29 is actually too low. I’ve got De La Cruz hanging onto the last spot in the top 30; other shops have him higher, but he’s showing very little XBH power for a projected corner OF.

I’ve got Morales at the back end of the top 30; is that crazy? He’s certainly held his own in a handful of MLB games since his callup; maybe he deserves to be a few slots higher. He had an .882 OPS in AAA this year as a 24yr old and finished 17 games in the majors with an .851 OPS … with zero walks. I had to put him a chunk ahead of his fellow 4A sluggers like Ortiz and Pinckney, so the last guy in the top 30 makes sense.

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30s:

31 Caleb Lomavita C
32 Angel Feliz SS/3B
33 Yeremy Cabrera OF (corner)
34 Kevin Bazzell C
35 Will Dion LHP (Reliever)
36 Joe Glassey RHP (Reliever)
37 Ben Grable RHP (Reliever)
38 Luis Perales RHP (Starter)
39 Jorgelys Mota SS
40 Nauris De La Cruz OF (Corner)

Comments: I don’t like having relievers in my top 30. In fact, I generally don’t like having relievers in my top 40, but I did put the three best prospect relievers we seem to have in this section in Dion, Glassey, and Grable. This ranking for Angel Feliz is about 10 spots below other shops and probably isn’t “fair” given that he played the entire season as at 19yr old in High-A. Maybe he belongs at #30 instead of Morales. Lomavita and Bazzell are both here as the next best catching prospects behind the falling Ford. Maybe that’s unfair to Romero, who’s the starting C in AAA for a playoff team. De la Cruz is a lot higher on a couple other lists but I don’t see much special here: he as “just ok”

The big talking point player here is Perales; I just cannot fathom at this point why anyone has him anywhere near the top 30. Sure he throws hard; he can’t find the plate, and when he does he’s pitching to an 11+ ERA in the majors. He couldn’t throw more than 2-3 innings in AAA and didn’t have all-star numbers there either. What am I missing? Really loving that Bennett-for-Perales trade!

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40s

41 Abimelec Ortiz 1B/OF (Corner)
42 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)
43 Cooper Harris RHP (Starter)
44 Eriq Swan RHP (Starter)
45 Josh Randall RHP (Starter)
46 Max Romero Jr. C
47 Yovanny Cruz RHP (Reliever)
48 Erik Tolman LHP (Reliever)
49 Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever)
50 Juan Duran 1B/OF (Corner)

Comments: I’ve got both Ortiz and Pinckney here as “still eligible 4-A hitters who seem like they’re stuck” in-between producing at a .900 OPS clip in AAA and hitting .180 in the majors. I’ve put a chunk of the “prospect relievers who have MLB time” in this range, including Cruz, Tolman, and Sinclair. Cooper Harris was our big-bonus prep RHP 4th rounder this year; he could shoot up or drop out depending on his 2027: maybe he’s Landon Harmon. Swan was hurt all year but has been a top-20 guy in the past; with a strong start to 2027 i’m sure he can shoot back up. Randall is in the same boat as the Hartle/Tejeda discussion earlier, except that his AA numbers were a lot worse this year. He arrived into our system as a fringe top30 guy but has now been pushed down 15 spots. If Juan Duran played SS he’d be a top 10 prospect; instead he’s a 1B corner OF type who shredded the DSL this year, so his value is more limited. I tell you what though; someone has to play 1B.

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50s

51 Luke Young RHP (Reliever)
52 Nick Mitchell OF (Corner)
53 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter)
54 Riley Maddox RHP (Starter)
55 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS
56 Victor Hurtado OF (Corner)
57 Browm Martinez OF (CF)
58 R.J. Sales RHP (Starter)
59 Cristian Vaquero OF (CF)
60 Carson Fischer RHP (Starter)

This is a natural section to collect a few falling prospects who used to be higher but who are slowly working their way out of relevance. This includes Stuart (who was a top 10 prospect upon acquisition in July 2024 and was even an NRI in Feb 2025 but who has now missed most of the last 2 seasons with injury). Ramirez was routinely in the top 20 of our ranks in 2024-25 but who has done little to earn that lofty status. Hurtado? Fangraphs had him as high as #5 in this system (because of course he did, b/c his methodology falls in love with 17yr olds with astronomical theoretical ceilings), and he actually did have a solid FCL season numbers wise, but he still projects as a slap-hitting outfielder with no power. Vaquero is perhaps the “best” example here, who has spent years in the top 10 of this system with his $4.9M signing bonus; he repeated Low-A for the 4th straight season this year, finally got to High-A as a 22yr old and had a .538 OPS. I threw in a couple of starters in Sales, Maddox, and Fischer here: Sales missed the entire season basically with injury but could actually be decent. Fischer had solid numbers but not much K/9. Maddox was great in High-A but struggled in a brief AA stint. This may actually be slightly too high for both Maddox and Fischer, but there’s a gap to the next set of full-season starters so maybe not.

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60s:

61 Juan Reyes LHP (Starter)
62 Rony Bello 2B/3B
63 Esnaider Vargas OF/SS
64 Holden Powell RHP (Reliever)
65 Austin Amaral RHP (Reliever)
66 Jacob Walsh 1B
67 Sandy Gaston RHP (Reliever)
68 Medina Maxim RHP (Starter)
69 Branden Boissiere OF (Corner)
70 Sam Brown OF (Corner)

This is a good section for the few remaining reliever “prospects” who might have value moving forward; that describes Powell (who I think is a 6yr MLFA after this season but who is in AAA), Amaral, and Gaston. Reyes is one of two FCL grad starters who got moved to Low-A upon season’s end. I’ve got a trio of 2nd tier OF prospects here who have had varying levels of success. Boissiere was solid in AA but is running out of time: he’ll turn 27 before next season, his last of his 6-year contract. Walsh hit 25 homers, most of them in the pitcher-friendly High-A league, so that’s something. He’s a big dude, 6’4 225 1B only though, so that’s why he’s 64th and not 24th. Medina Maxim is a potentially interesting one: he pitched in just 5 games in the DSL before the team said, “ok that’s good enough” and shipped him to Florida, the only mid-season DSL->FCL promotion this year. There, he got into exactly 2 games, got shelled, and frankly may have gotten hurt b/c he didn’t appear after July 13th.

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70s

71 Isaias Suarez OF (CF)
72 Angel Ramirez OF (Corner)
73 Brayan Cortesia SS
74 Noah Millikan RHP (Starter)
75 Phillips Glasser SS
76 Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever)
77 Kendeglys Virguez RHP (Reliever)
78 Marlon De La Cruz RHP (Starter)
79 Daniel Hernandez C
80 Kevin Made SS

By the time you get to this range, you’re in totally fallen prospect range (Cortesia, De La Cruz, Made), barely holding on starter range (Millikan), and a few lesser reliever prospects (Cranz, Virguez). Glasser showed lots of promise in 2026 and I had him on the edges of our top30, but AAA has exposed him as a punch-less 2B/3B guy who can’t really play SS and who thus needs to find another tool to break through, lese he’s going to hit 6year MLFA as a classic AAA-topped out org guy. Made remains here for now; he probably hits MLFA Nov 1st and used to be a mainstay in our top 20. Fangraphs ranked Suarez 19th in the system, because he’s obsessed with DSL teens who can’t even hit .200.

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80s

81 Alexander Meckley RHP (Starter)
82 Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter)
83 Lopez Juan RHP (Starter)
84 Thomas Schultz RHP (Reliever)
85 Kyle Luckham RHP (Reliever)
86 Elian Soto 1B/OF (Corner)
87 Jack Moroknek OF (Corner)
88 Sir Jamison Jones C
89 Courtland Lawson SS/3B
90 Andry Lara RHP (Reliever)

Comments: so, we’re in the range of players where you may read someone’s name and go, “oh man he should be higher.” Fair enough. Some of the guys in this section used to be much, much higher (Sir Jamison Jones for one, who’s in the top 30 for many and who Keith Law had at #14 in June), but a .658 OPS figure in Low-A just doesn’t merit a top 30 spot. Andry Lara is still here; he may be a MLFA as well in the off-season but he resigned once and threw AAA innings all year. There’s a couple 1b/OF types here who have hit lately (Soto, Moroknek), but their lack of playing a premium position works against them. Lawson is an interesting one: he’s now 26 and worked his way to AAA this season. is he a prospect? Or is he Jake Noll?

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90s

91 Jose Feliz RHP (Starter)
92 T.J. White OF (Corner)
93 Juan Obispo OF (CF)
94 Juan Cruz 1B
95 Robles Jean RHP (Starter)
96 Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter)
97 Jonierbis Garces OF (Corner)
98 Tucker Biven RHP (Reliever)
99 Bryan Polanco RHP (Reliever)
100 Johnathan Thomas OF (CF)

Comments: Jose Feliz was awesome in 2025 in the FCL; straight to 60-day DL in 2026; where do you put him? Should he be closer to where a Tyler Stuart is? The 90+ range is why past a certain number it’s hard to definitively “rank” players. What’s the salient difference between a middling outfielder in the 60s like Sam Brown versus another one in the mid 90s like Johnathan Thomas? Probably not a ton.

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100+

101 Manuel Cabrera SS
102 Elijah Green OF (CF)
103 Teo Banks OF (Corner)
104 Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF)
105 Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Reliever)
106 Elijah Nunez OF (CF)
107 Levi Huesman LHP (Reliever)
108 Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter)
109 Brady Hill RHP (Reliever)
110 Adam Bloebaum RHP (Reliever)
111 Darrel Lunar RHP (Starter)
112 Greyson Gimenez RHP (Reliever)
113 Eiker Huizi RHP (Reliever)
114 Brenner Cox RHP (Reliever)
115 Merritt Beeker LHP (Reliever)
116 Enmanuel Carela RHP (Starter)
117 Marcus Brown SS
118 Huff Chance RHP (Reliever)
119 Dylan Tebrake RHP (Reliever)
120 Edgardo Figueroa C
121 Cesar Rojas RHP (Reliever)
122 Nick Hollifield C

Comments: A couple of these guys (Green and Tejeda in particular) have both had relatively recent stays in or near the top 30, but whose performance has dumped them well down the list. The arms in this section are generally low minors starters or guys who were started but who have gotten dumped into relief. Teo Banks has never appeared on any prospect list but just got stuck on our AFL 2026 roster, so I threw him in here. As for the rest of the 100+ crew, it’s almost entirely arms in our system, plus the full suite of Rule-5 minor league guys we slopped up last off-season (who I probably never should have added to my prospect XLS in the first place). A couple of these guys at one point or another sniffed a top 30 list: Brennar Cox before he converted to relief, Marcus Brown early in his career. I’d be surprised if half these guys are still with the team this time next year. But, there’s also some interesting names her. Tepper was hurt most of last year and struggled to get back this year; he could have an impactful 2027 since the team still thinks he’s a starter.

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Phew. Ok 122 players is crazy. Honestly I kind of gave up fine tuning the list at 100 or so. Look for some churn on this list in the off-season, and for some of our 2026 draftees to start joining this list as they move up the 2027 system.

Here’s the End of Season 2026 check-in on rotations. Since the various minor league seasons ended at varying points during the month of September, and since the Rochester “rotation” turned into basically a string of bullpen games, these are going to be season-long stat analysis instead of a “hot cold” analysis of just a couple of possible September starts.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 9/27/26, the final game of the MLB season.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

Final record: 77-85, 4th place NL East. 21st out of 30 in the league (projecting to 10th pick next July)

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
• End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots
• End of July 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin (with frequent openers)
• End of August 2026: Cavalli, Irvin, Alvarez, JKent, and bullpen games
• End of Sept 2026: Cavalli, Irvin, Alvarez, JKent, and then the return of Herz and Early.

Changes since end of last Month: Cavalli got shut down with one start to go, which worked out with the timing of the return of three of our 60-day DL starters in Gray, Herz, and Early. Herz got 2 final week starts, Early one, and Gray came into pitch in relief and get a save.

Rotation Observations: Cavalli finally pitched to his promise when taken in the 2020 draft; 13-5, 3.02 ERA, 142 ERA+. 32 starts, only missing the final start of the season. 200 Ks in 169 IP. And a new long-term contract buying out all his arb seasons and 1-2 of his FA seasons. Can’t ask for more. Irvin finished 2-10 with a 5.48 ERA and a 79 ERA+. His final appearance was basically his season in a microcosm; looked great for 2-3 innings, then gave up multiple bombs to take the loss. Alvarez finished with a 2-6 w/L record in 25 appearances/17 starts, basically used as a long reliever despite his 2nd straight season with excellent numbers (125 ERA+). Kent gave us 7 starts with a 5.94 ERA; he’s not ready. Herz’ 2 starts back were not great, Early’s looked excellent.

2027 way too early rotation prediction: Cavalli, Early, Gray, Alvarez, and a FA acquisition. Send Kent back to AAA, along with Herz and Perales to stretch him out. Keep Cornelio, Lord, and Dion as 2-inning relievers. Non-tender Irvin. I’ll take this sentence along with the same analysis cascading down the system and post this in a week or so once the dust settles.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
• June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas
• July 2026: turned out to be Alvarez, should have been Mikolas.
• Aug 2026: With both Mikolas and Littell whacked, next in line is Irvin.
• Sept 2026: Irvin. He’s now got more than 100 MLB starts with an ERA north of 5.00.

Quick bullpen thoughts: After amazing churn the entire season, to go with their 42 blown saves the team ends the season with this bullpen, sporting these stats (note; lots of these are SSS, but my point will be made soon):

• Tolman: 2.93 ERA, 150 ERA+, 5 saves in a month
• Sinclair: 2.45 ERA, 181 ERA+
• Cornelio: 3.68 ERA, 118 ERA+
• Dion: 3.00 ERA, 116 ERA+
• Lord: 3.78 ERA, 114 ERA+
• Cruz: 6.75 ERA, 66 ERA+
• Lovelady: 4.23 ERA, 103 ERA+
• Varland: 6.55 ERA, 66 ERA+
• (15 day DL) Ribalta: 3.77 ERA, 115 ERA+

Additionally, In the last 2 week they sent down these three to free up space for Early/Herz starts:

• Perales: 11.45 ERA, 39 ERA+
• Simpson: 10.38 ERA, 45 ERA+
• Yean: 2.45 ERA, 191 ERA+

I mean … yes most of these guys had just a month of work, in September against expanded rosters. But there’s a lot of promise here. After watching this bullpen all year, I’d go into 2026-27 with every one of these 100+ ERA+ guys, especially front lined by the quartet of Ribalta/Lord/Dion/Cornelio, who’ve been doing it for a big chunk of the season. The Nat’s bullpen ended up finishing the season 30th out of 30 in fWAR (-3.3) and 28th in ERA, so there’s no where to go but up.

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AAA Rochester

Final record: 90-58, 1st in league, won both halves, won the IL title, lost in AAA final

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
• End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, JKent, Penrod as an opener
• End of July 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, JKent, then a slew of openers/rehab starts/bullpen games.
• End of August 2026: Champlain, Cebert, Lyon, Herz doing rehab, then 9 different openers/bullpen games.
• End of Season 2026: Champlain, Cebert, Lyon, Herz/Early rehabs, and bullpen games.

Changes since end of last Month: Not much from August: There were 9 different starters for their 18 games in September. Susana was put on the AAA roster to make a playoff start; he hit 104 in the AAA championship game. The team did all sort of roster shenanigans at the end, with guys on/off the Dev list, Cebert demoted to AA, all to do roster management for the playoff games.

Rotation Observations: Champlain’s 2026 season in total was solid; 3.95 ERA with 127 IP and a 1.14 whip. I wonder if they’ll pursue a MLFA reunion for 2027 here. Lara led the team with 20 official starts and 34 appearances; I also wonder if they’ll renew with the player who’s only ever played for the Nats franchise. Cebert was put back to AA as a paperwork move; he should be in AAA next year after a stellar 2026. Lyon had a 1.53 ERA in four AAA starts after starting the season in Low-A; pretty amazing season for him, even though he lost the Pitcher of the Year award to Sime.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors and our terrible bullpen
• June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.
• July: Perales; had a good month and is on 40-man so no roster move.
• Aug: Cornelio should go back up; both June and July’s candidate are now in majors. (he did)
• Sept: They’ve promoted everyone worthy out of AAA at this point.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.
• June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA
• July: Back to Lara.
• Aug: Zak Kent
• Sept: Lara or Champlain, both of whom are MLFAs.

Quick bullpen thoughts: AAA finishes the season with somewhere in the 16-17 range of relievers depending on how you define them. Eight of them are 40-man guys; ZKent, Beeter, Nicolas, Bird, Schultz, Simpson, Perales, and Palmquist. Honestly, I’m not sure how many of these guys are even worth keeping into next season. We have 5 guys coming off the 60-day DL at the end of the WS and not one FA, so look for all 5 spots to come from this group in the form of DFAs or non-tenders. I’m not sure exactly where we stand with Rule5 at this point (nearly all our Rule5 potential candidates were already added), but between this crew and the uys who finished the season on the MLB roster with ERAs in the 6s we should have plenty of room to make moves.

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AA Harrisburg

Final record: 67-67, 3rd place in their division.

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
• End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc
• End of July 2026: Clemmey, Lyon, Randall, Maddox, Tejeda (along with 3 rehab starts and a couple of bullpen games)
• End of Aug 2026: Clemmey, Randall, Tejeda, Hartle, Susana (Cebert, Lyon for a bit, 2 rehab starts from Herz)
• End of Season 2026: Clemmey, Randall, Tejeda, Hartle, Cebert, Swan

Changes since end of last Month: Cebert switched places in the last week of the season with Susana to get Jarlin one AAA playoff spot, otherwise no changes in the last few weeks for Harrisburg.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey did a full season in AA, wire to wire. 28 Games/25 starts, 128 IP. 4.64 ERA, 1.47 whip. Second straight season in this general area. No idea what to do with him. He’s too young to give up on, but has stalled. Randall finished with a 5.06 ERA in 17 games for us; probably repeats AA next season to see how he does. Tejeda struggled upon his promotion but should run out in AA again to start 2027. Hartle and Cebert were both excellent in AA upon their arrival and I would think move to AAA next season. Swan made it back to AA after a seemingly endless rehab stint in High-A but struggled.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.
• June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1, but was then demoted back mid-month).
• July: Nobody is ready, but Clemmey probably pitched the best and is the longest-serving AA guy. Maybe another month of this and they could consider him, but at his age, there’s no reason to push him to AAA right now.
• August: Hartle
• Sept: Cebert (who did move up) and/or Hartle.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.
• June: Chemmey
• July: Luckham, who got removed from rotation. Now likely Randall.
• Aug: Randall still isn’t good, but Clemmey and Tejeda are concerning.
• Sep: Randall and Tejeda may be odd men out next season when injury guys return

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High-A Wilmington

Final record: 69-62, 3rd place out of 6 in division.

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
• End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper
• End of July 2026: Sime, Tepper, Fischer, Sthele, Sullivan (plus 3 rehab starts, and a slew of one-offs).
• End of Aug 2026: Maddox, Sime, Fisher, Sullivan, Biven (likely Sales coming back into the rotation in Sept)
• End of Season 2026: Maddox, Sime, Fisher, Sullivan, Sales

Changes since end of last Month: Sales came off DL and took the opener/bullpen 5th rotation spot for the end of the season.

Rotation Observations: Maddox finished the year with stellar High-A numbers (a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP) but got shelled when he moved up. Sime was our Minor League Pitcher of the Year and had a 2.15 ERA in High-A to go along with 76 Ks in 46 innings). Fisher was very solid for the season (3.02 ERA) but seems very much like a pitch to contact guy and probably starts here again in 2027 thanks to a glut of AA candidates. Sullivan struggled post promotion to a 6.10 era. Sales only had 2 starts and probably has to start here again in 2027.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
• June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda (who was also promoted on 7/22)
• July: Sime
• Aug: Maddox
• Sept: Sime and Maddox

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
• June: Meckley (indeed he was demoted on 7/8)
• July: Tepper
• August: Sullivan
• Sept: Sullivan

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Final record: Total: 80-51 (1/6). Won 1st half. Playoffs: Lost in playoffs to Fayetteville 2-0.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
• End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.
• End of July 2026: Johnson, De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Millikan, Reyes (with a bunch of openers)
• End of August 2026: De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Reyes, Portorreal (plus rehab starts from Sales and Herz)
• End of Season 2026: De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Reyes, Millikan

Changes since end of last Month: Portorreal was moved out for Millikan, who got moved up from FCL for the tail end of the season.

Rotation Observations: De La Cruz’ first stint in Low-A ended with an ERA of 6.88. Harmon got 12 starts in Low-A and dominated: 1.60 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip. Meckley was ok, but that’s after failing in High-A. I’m not sure he’s long for any rotation. Reyes was excellent in his 5-6 starts after getting called up from the FCL and should lead the line next season. Millikan got shelled after his callup.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer
• June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson
• July: None. The low-A rotation is a mess. Gus Hughes as a long reliever is best option to promote this month and indeed he was.
• Aug: Harmon
• Sept: Harmon

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
• June: Portorreal (put on Dev list mid-month in July)
• July: Meckley or De la Cruz. Probably Meckey since he’s 3 years older.
• Aug: Meckley again, and De La Cruz again.
• Sept: De la Cruz or Millikan

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Rookie FCL

Final record: 26-27 (2/5 in division, 7/16 in league)

The FCL season ended on July 23rd.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
• End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan
• End of Season 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Millikan, Medina

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Rookie DSL

Final Record: 14-40 (7/7 in division, 49 of 51 overall in league. Pretty bad.

The season ended mercifully on August 29th.

• Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
• End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas
• End of July 2026: Manzueta, Sarit, Carela, Reynoso, Thomas
• End of Season 2026: Manzueta, Sarit, Carela, Reynoso, Thomas

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That’s it for September and for the 2026 Season.

The AFL rosters were announced today. The Nats are not well known for sending their best talent to Arizona, and this year seems no different. We’ve announced six (6) names as of this writing, which seems a little light, so I wouldn’t be surprised to hear a few more names added in (we sent 8 last year and most teams send 8-9).

Here’s who we’ve announced so far:

• RHP Starter Jarlin Susana, AA
• OF Teo Banks, High-A
• LHP Reliever Noah Dean, AA
• LHP Starter Nolan Hughes, Low-A
• OF/3B Jorgelys Mota, High-A
• RHP Starter RJ Sales, High-A

This is an … interesting group, to say the least. It includes two top 30 prospects at best (Susana and Mota), a couple of fringe at best arms (Sales and Hughes), an 18th round OF prospect who’s never been on anyone’s radar (Banks), and a frigging MLFA they signed in March who’s thrown a grand total of 14 innings for us (Dean).

Usually AFL players fall into one of several distinct categories:

• Pitchers who were injured for most of the season and who need innings
• Pending Rule-5 guys who they want one last look at.
• Show-me pop up guys who the team wants to challenge in a less-meaningful environment
• Top Prospects to show we’re actually playing by AFL roster rules.

So, how do these six classify w/r/t these rules?

• Susana is clearly a top prospect, but also most nearly the entire season so he’s the classic “needs innings” case
• Banks is … a pop-up guy? This is a 2024 18th rounder who had a .700 OPS figure this season.
• Dean is another weird guy; he was a 2026 MLFA of all things, and then barely pitched. So, are we assuming the team signed him for multiple years? He was a 2022 draftee, so he’s technically Rule-5 eligible, but this is a weird one.
• Hughes? Clearly the “needs more innings” guy, in that he’s got just 7 IP this season and is on the 60-day dl as we speak.
• Mota could be considered a “show me” prospect, but he also only earned a promotion to High-A later in the season and he struggled badly up there; he’ll get destroyed by AA -level pitching in AFL.
• Sales is classical “missed most of the season and needs innings” guy.

I wonder if the lack of star power in our AFL roster is mostly a function of the nature of our prospect depth right now, which is for the most part either nearly in the majors, injured, or is still a teen ager. To wit, here’s how the top 20 or so guys in the system would classify:

• Already hit the Majors: Simpson, Kent, Perales, Ortiz
• Already done AFL: King, Peterson, Petry, Wallace
• Still hurt: Sykora, Rosario
• Too young or too new: Willits, Fitz-Gerald, Hacopian, Cruz, Fein, Sime, Harmon, Brunson, James, Serrano

Also, thanks to aggressive promotions this season, we have almost no real Rule-5 candidates to consider. A quick guide down the Roster Resource lists a scant few R5 candidates to even talk about (burying the lead on the annual Rule 5 analysis, but here goes). I’m leaving out any 2026 MLFAs and/or 60-day DL guys.

• in AAA right now: Romero, Wallace, Lawson, Powell
• in AA right now: Young, Boissiere, Made, White, Luckham, Gaston, Huff
• in High-A right now: Polanco, Stuart, Hill

Not a lot needing protecting this coming December, and certainly not a lot in the AA range that deserves a trip to Arizona. Boissiere? White? I dunno.

Possible candidates to consider adding if they need a few more bodies:

• AAA starters like Cebert or Lyon: both over 100 IP this season though, and no real need to give them more.
• AA starters like Clemmey, Tejeda, Randall, or Hartle: all have 120+ ip this year.
• Catchers (they always need catchers): Romero, Bazzell, Lomavita; Bazzell in particular could use time behind the plate, and Romero is R5.

Players who I don’t know why they’re not in the AFL:

• Swan: he’s the classical arm who needs more work, is AA talent.
• Maybe Elijah Greene, just for humor purposes to see if he can strikeout 75% of the time?

So, that’s the AFL this year. I’ll be super curious when Susana throws, probably couldn’t care less about anyone else’s performance out there this year.

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Post publishing data dump: I ran through the last few AFL rosters for comparison purposes. These names are in rough order of their “value” as prospects at the time:

• 2026: Susana, Mota, Sales, Hughes, Dean, Banks
• 2025: King, Bennett, Petry, Linan, Peterson, Aldonis, Amaral, Simpson
• 2024: Wallace, Hassell, Cronin, Saenz, Cuevas, Romero, Young, Solesky
• 2023: Hassell, Lipscomb, Herz, Pineda, Ward, Powell, Sinclair, Ribalta
• 2022: Hassell, Millas, Cate, Antuna, Knowles, Willingham, Baker, Ribalta, Frizzell, Lindsly
• 2021: Henry, Rutledge, Lee, Pineda, Millas, Peterson, Casey, Cluff
• 2020: cancelled
• 2019: Garcia, Sharp, Reetz, Raquet, Banks, Freeman, Lee, Condra-Bogan
• 2018: Kieboom, Guilbeau, Braymer, Barrera, Noll, Mills, Johnson, Reyes
• 2017: Robles, Williams, McGowin, Bacus, Cordero, Gushu, Gutierrez
• 2016: Stevenson, Voth, Ward, Johansen, Brinley, Lee, Abreu

Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for August 2026 for the full season shops, the full-season for FCL and DSL, unless otherwise noted.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started and which are a bit outdated at this point.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

1. Eli Willits SS, High-A: Continues to struggle in High-A, hitting just .232 for the month. Despite that low BA, he managed to have the 2nd highest OPS figure on the team, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of Wilmington’s offense. Willits was given the Nats Baserunner of the Year award earlier this week, in recognition of his 57 SBs and his draft pedigree. It’s probably fair to point out at this point that he’s at the tail end of a 140 game season as an 18yr old who probably has never played more than 30-35 games in a season in his life, and he may be ready for a break. Temperature: luke warm
2. Harry Ford, C MLB: has stayed in the majors since his call-up/Millas’ injury and will remain there. MLB stats so far: .188/.300/.391. So, that’s not necessarily great, and his numbers havn’t improved in month 2. Temperature: cold, looks like he needs more AAA time.
3. Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: Finally off the DL; made one August start. September should be telling; hopefully we get 5 starts, then an AFL stint. Temperature: ready to warm up hopefully.
4. Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. No new news for months. Temperature: on ice.
5. Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: took a step back in August in terms of production: .263/.358/.351 with just 1 homer. If he’s stuck as a corner OF, we’re going to want more here. Temperature: cool.
6. Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey was awful this month. 7.99 ERA, a ton of walks. I’m not sure what to do here. Reports are that his velocity is way down, and so now his BAA is .319 but he’s still walking a ton of guys. Something has to give here. Temperature: ice code once again.
7. Seaver King, SS AAA: Blowing up again after getting off the DL and missing most of May and all of June; .330/.417/.640 for August in AAA. With CJ Abrams moving to 2B, I just have to wonder if a call-up is imminent here. He was also just named the Nats Minor league hitter of the year. Temperature: red hot.
8. Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: was in the middle of a month where he was striking out tons of guys but still not being that effective when he got the call up for some reason. He was the last 40-man member dating to opening day to get called up. I watched his 8/31 appearance, when he came in after Dion’s 3 scoreless innings. Walk, Strikeout, Single, Single, Wild Pitch, Single, Strikeout, Single, Ground out. All over the place; no control. What the f*ck? It took him 34 pitches to labor through this inning, where he wasted a solid opening outing from Dion. Amazingly the offense bailed him out, but if he’s not on a plane back to Rochester soon I’ll be pissed. This trade is not aging well, at all. The team traded a lefty starter on the cusp of the majors for a guy they’ve turned into a reliever who can’t find the plate. Nice work. Temperature: ice cold
9. Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, AA: He had a nice month actually: .310/.390/.493. I’ll take those splits any day. He’s still splitting time mostly between 2B and SS, but his size (5’10”) probably means 2B longer term. That’s fine: as long as he hits like this he can be my 2B any day.. Temperature: heating up.
10. Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: Harmon did five 3-inning starts and is rock solid; he gave up 2 earned runs for the month, one via a solo homer in early August. Its too bad he’s not more stretched out thanks to injury, else he’d be ripe to promote. I wonder if he’s an AFL candidate: he’s kind of young for that AA-AAA level league. Temperature: heating up nicely.
11. Ronny Cruz: SS High-A. Blasted 6 homers to jack up his slugging, but hit just ..226 for the month. Like Willits, his offensive spree ended the moment he arrived in Delaware and the pitcher’s parks of the Carolina league. Temperature: luke warm.
12. Luke Dickerson, SS/CF High-A: Promoted to High-A in early August and got 3 weeks in Wilmington: intro to High-A? oof. .154/.276/.200. Let’s see if he rebounds in September. Temperature: cold.
13. Ethan Petry, 1B AA: he bounced back to have a 6-homer month with a solid OPS: .292/.344/.573. that will do wonder for his seasonal slash line in AA and is good to see. Temperature: heating up.
14. Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: Very solid month at the plate: .250/.347/.476 showing both power and speed (4 homers, 6 SB). I’m happy to see him improving month over month in his first pro season as a 19yr old. Temperature: warming up.
15. Angel Felix, SS High-A: Not good. .179 BA for the month and just a .674 OPS for the season. Temperature: cold.
16. Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) AA: Tejeda got pulverized this month; ERA in the 9s and a .345 BAA. Yikes. Temperature: super cold.
17. Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: had one solid AAA start then got promoted to the majors. His first few starts were rough, but his last MLB start was solid. He’s clearly getting a run-out for the rest of the season Temperature: hot for making the majors in just his 3rd pro season
18. Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime continues to strike guys out at ridiculous rates (26 ks in 14ip in August) but is still walking guys at a walk an inning. Somehow he maintained a 1.26 ERA for the month. He was named the Nats Minor league Pitcher of the Year earlier this week. Temperature: still hot.
19. Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; On the full-season DL, hopefully to return in 2027. No new news. Temperature: on ice.
20. Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: Halfway decent slash line for this squad: .241/.306/.391. Not great overall. Temperature: cool.
    

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Other Notable players by level this month:

in AAA:

• Graduated prospect Trey Lipscomb continues to rake in AAA; .333/.350/.675 for the month with 11 homers. He exhausted his rookie eligibility more than 2 years ago, but his production cannot be ignored for much longer. Or, maybe it can, as they’ve ignored Morales’ production all year. Could the AAA team end the season with two 30-homer guys, neither of which are on the 40-man or even in consideration for promotion?
• (Note: the moment I wrote this, the team called up Morales, but before I had a chance to publish).
• unranked 2026 MLFA Leandro Pinedo continues to rake since his AAA promotion and now has maintained an 1100 OPS figure in Rochester for the last two months. We seem to have an abundance of bats in AAA this year.
• #30 Cayden Wallace, who has really fallen off the radar of a lot of prospect shops, also bashing the ball in upstate NY. .337/.391/.624 for the month. I mean, are Vivas and Tenas going to be part of the future of this club? Is Nunez? What’s holding these hitters back?
• Jack Cebert, who probably slots in now as our #12 prospect or so, was bumped up to AAA at months end; its his 3rd level promotion since the beginning of 2026. This may be pretty aggressive, especially since he wasn’t lighting the world on fire in AA for the Yankees before coming to us, but he was solid in 3 AA starts. We’ll see.
• Isaac Lyon also got promoted to AAA with Cebert, and has also now been promoted three times just this season. He had workable numbers in AA and is also just 22, drafted last year in the 10th round, so this seems like found gold. He was the 2nd player in the Jose Ferrer trade in January along with Harry Ford.
• #21 Sam Peterson got promoted to AAA to cover for other promotions (not based on merit) and hit just .184 for the month. tough jump for the 2024 draftee .. but he’s also in AAA in his 3rd pro season.
• Trade Acquisition Ben Grable, who probably slots into the mid 20s prospect wise, blew through AA and was promoted to AAA where he is working as a SU/CL type high leverage reliever. Hmm. Maybe an alternative for our beleagured bullpen.

In AA:

• #26 Caleb Lomavita had just an .617 OPS figure, and now the team promoted 2024 3rd rounder Kevin Bazzell to be his backup and play a handful of games a month. I’m not sure I like this development; Bazzell is no slouch.
• Elijah Green watch: he “only” had 30 Ks in 20 AA games in August. Season totals: 110 games, 393 ABs, 198 strikeouts. that is greater than a 50% strikeout rate. I wonder what the MiLB record is for Ks in a season (googling did not immediately find a credible source).
• Trade acquisition Josh Hartle, who would probably slot in as the #29-30 ranked prospect, was excellent: 1.83 ERA in four appearances with a 1.02 whip and 20/8 K/BB in 19.2 innings. That’s better than I expected for a #29-30 prospect.
• Trade acquisition Joe Glassey (who we traded Franklin for even up) has this month: 9 games, 10 IP, 1 (one) hit, 10/1 K/BB. He had a 0.20 whip and a .031 BAA for the month. I’ll take that.
• Trade acquisition Kendeglys Virquez, who has a name that seems purposely difficult to write, was the 3rd guy in the Griffen trade. He’s been not good for us since arriving in AA: 8ip 5/7 K/BB in that time
  

In High-A:

• Jacob Walsh continued to mash the ball, following up on July’s 8-homer month with a 9-homer August. Slash line for the monhth: .315/.371/.708. He’s in line for 30 for the season, a great feat for the 2025 draftee.
• 2026 1st rounder Chris Hacopian, who probably slots in as the #6-#7 prospect, got half a month in Wilmington with a solid start: .275/.396/.350.

In Low-A:

• Hunter Hines, demoted mid-season from Wilmington, had the best slash line of the month; .319/.410/.694. He may be a Low/High A tweener.
• #38 Sir Jamison Jones had his second straight solid month at the plate, great for the young catching prospect. .286/.380/.452. We have a MLFA and an NDFA catching in High-A, so not much blocking him from promotion.
• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr improved once again, showing some power and pushing his slugging into the 6s: .286/.379/.653. That’s major production for a middle infielder. Remember, he was dumped back to Low-A earlier this year; maybe its time to push him back up.
• #41 Cristian Vaquero posted an .817 OPS figure for the month on the back of some power, but it’s kind of empty given that he’s repeating the level for the FOURTH year.
• Our two 2026 drafted hitters pushed to Low-A (Ortiz and Dugger) are both struggling so far.
• Our two 2026 drafted pitchers pushed to Low-A (Howard and Konstantinovsky) haven’t really had enough results to judge.
  

FCL ended at the end of July. We seem to have promoted just a couple of guys at that point; both RHP starter types:

• Leodarlyn Colon has served as a swing man for Low-A with decent numbers: 1.38 ERA in 13ip.
• Juan Reyes: Reyes’ first three full season starts went well: 1.74 ERA in 3 games/10ip.

None of the rest of the prospects from FCL have yet to merit promotion, so no German, Cortesia, Hernandez, Martinez, Hurtado, etc.

DSL ended at the end of August. Here’s the seasonal hitting stats for the four marquee 2026 IFA signings:

• Isaias Suarez OF (corner): .197/.374/.308; a big disappointment for his $$ bonus so far. Should repeat DSL.
• Angel Ramirez OF (corner): .215/.349/.393; not the best BA but has some power and a good eye: may repeat DSL.
• Samil Serrano OF (cf): .310/.430/.538 for the season. 5 homers leading the team. There’s a reason he’s rocketing up prospect ranks
• Juan Duran 1B: .331/.438/.474 for the season: those are very solid numbers and he should be moving stateside.

In the DSL, the remaining big money 2025 IFA signings who are still there:

• Ronny Bello SS: ..291/.404/.455 for the year. After repeating DSL, he’ll be in FCL for sure.
• Esnaider Vargas: Of/DH: .301/.361/.466; that’s pretty good too and he has nothing left to prove in DSL.
• Jonierbis Garces: OF (corner): .250/.373/.286; just 4 XBH all season, not good enough for a corner, but has a ton of speect (27 SBs in 46 games this year). Maybe he profiles as a plus-defender CF/speedy baserunner type. He’s either FCL or released after 2 seasons in the DR.

So, this looks like at least 4-5 DSL->FCL promotions for next season from this group.

There’s not a lot to mention out of the DSL from the pitching side: the pitching staff in the DSL was pretty bad this season. Squinting, here’s maybe a couple of guys who showed a little promise this season:

• Ranger Sarit: starter: 4.50 ERA but a .176 BAA and about a K/inning. He’s already 20 and just finished his 2nd DSL season, so its up or out probably.
• Manuel Ruiz was a LR/SS with a 4.41 ERA and a bit more than a k/inning, but he walked 21 and hit another 15 in his 32IP.

Here’s the August 2026 check-in on rotations. It has been a pretty bad month for the big-league team, but we’ve seen an interesting churn in the minors. Let’s get to it.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 8/31/26’s Nats-Marlins game, 8/30/26’s games for the Minors.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
• End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots
• End of July 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin (with frequent openers)
• End of August 2026: Cavalli, Irvin, Alvarez, JKent, and bullpen games

Changes since end of last Month: We traded Griffen, released Mikolas the day after he got his 10 years, released Littell finally, called up JKent, and in the absence of any other obvious starter candidates have been doing bullpen games for the 5th slot since everyone else on our 40-man roster is a reliever and Early is now on the 60-day DL.

Rotation Observations: Cavalli is turning himself into an Ace in front of our eyes: 6 August starts: 1.75 ERA, 0.88 Whip, and just 7 ER in 36ip. After years of injury issues, he’s now tied for the MLB lead in Games Started and has become our most dependable arm. Alvarez continues to defy expectations of a 12th round pick: 6 August starts, 2.45 ERA and a 0.970 whip. His BABIP for the month was not sustainable, but his impact and arsenal are inarguable. When we start talking about the 2027 rotation, his name needs to be in that discussion. Irvin remains in the rotation despite ongoing middling numbers; another 5-something ERA month. To cover for (finally) released veterans, they called up Jackson Kent, our 2024 4th rounder. He struggled in his first three starts but was excellent over the weekend. The 5th “starter” has been bullpen games, with mostly Lord and Dion doing the heavy lifting.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
• June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas
• July 2026: turned out to be Alvarez, should have been Mikolas.
• Aug 2026: With both Mikolas and Littell whacked, next in line is Irvin.

Quick bullpen thoughts: Interestingly, the team choose to cut Trevor Williams just a couple weeks after he finally came off the DL at the same time they had a gaping hole in the rotation. Why? Williams missed half of 2025 and most of 2026 and got tens of millions of dollars of Nats money to do so; he’s finally healthy so… we cut him at a time when we can’t find a bullpen guy who can get 3 guys out in the 9th?? I don’t get it; yeah maybe they’re trying to “do right” by the veteran to cut him in mid August so he can hook up with a possible playoff team, but why do we “owe” him that after we paid him $14M to give us less than 100 innings over the last two years and essentially paid him to rehab and prepare for his next contract? Perhaps this sounds callus, but I disagree with this move completely. Mikolas and Littell? yes. Williams? no.

The rest of the bullpen thoughts are repetitive: we have perhaps 2-3 relievers who are reliable, and the rest are trash. One bright spot: Will Dion, who was kind of a throw-in in the Griffen trade with Cleveland. He’s an undersized lefty who was a starter for most of his minor’s career and was pretty effective until he got to AAA, when he got moved to the bullpen. Now for us, he’s regularly giving the team 3-4 innings of nearly spotless long relief. Why don’t we look at him as a starter? As it turns out, between Lord and Dion doing 3-4 inning stints, the team hasn’t needed a real 5th starter since they whacked Littell on August 5th.

One last interesting item of note: at the present moment, the ENTIRE 40-man roster that’s not in the majors are relievers. As of this writing: we’re at 39/40. Take away 26 active players and 2 more 15day dl guys that’s 11 guys left. They’re entirely relievers in AAA. Talk about throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
• End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener
• End of July 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, then a slew of openers/rehab starts/bullpen games.
• End of August 2026: Champlain, Cebert, Lyon, Herz doing rehab, then 9 different openers/bullpen games.

Changes since end of last Month: The AAA rotation has been rather difficult to keep track of. Going from August’s relatively stable rotation to now: Perales converted to reliever, Lara the same, and JKent promoted. In their place, towards the end of the month the team promoted Cebert and Lyon to be “conventional” starters, but the rest of this “rotation” has been openers and bullpen games. Fair enough; the major league team needs bullpen arms more than it needs Cornelio going 5 innings, so that’s where we are and perhaps we revisit everyone next spring.

Rotation Observations: Champlain held his own: 5 “starts” with a 3.00 ERA and decent numbers. Cebert and Lyon only got one start each upon promotion so too early to tell. Herz had just one rehab start in AAA so not really worth talking about. Sorting the stats by pure IP for the rest of the long men of note: Simpson had 8 appearances and 21ip; 2.30 ERA and good K/BB numbers. Cornelio has been pretty unhittable since going down; 8 games, 14IP, 27/4 K/BB in that time; not sure why he’s not getting called backup ahead of others. Zak Kent has struggled badly; he’s a 28yr old waiver claim with a 7 ERA in AAA and i’d have to think he’s #1 on the “Next guy to get DFA’d” list when needed.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors and our terrible bullpen
• June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.
• July: Perales; had a good month and is on 40-man so no roster move.
• Aug: Cornelio should go back up; both June and July’s candidate are now in majors.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.
• June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA
• July: Back to Lara.
• Aug: Zak Kent

Quick bullpen thoughts: In the “weirdest stat lines i’ve seen in a while,” here’s Justin Lawrence’s August splits: 12 appearances and 11.1 IP with a 6.35 ERA (ok that’s bad). In those 11.1 IP he’s given up just 6 hits (good) and another 8 walks for a WHIP of 1.24 (ok that’s ok). He has 21 Ks in those 11.1 innings (wow) and his BAA is just .150. Somehow, he gave up 8 Earned Runs along the way of these stats. Amazing. He gave up more ERs than he gave up HITS this month.

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
• End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc
• End of July 2026: Clemmey, Lyon, Randall, Maddox, Tejeda (along with 3 rehab starts and a couple of bullpen games)
• End of Aug 2026: Clemmey, Randall, Tejeda, Hartle, Susana (Cebert, Lyon for a bit, 2 rehab starts from Herz)

Changes since end of last Month: Lyon and Cebert promoted, Maddux demoted. In their place we have Hartle (trade acquisition) and Susana (finally off the DL). Swan is off the DL but is doing short inning stints for now.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey was awful this month. 7.99 ERA, a ton of walks. I’m not sure what to do here. Reports are that his velocity is way down, and so now his BAA is .319 but he’s still walking a ton of guys. Something has to give here. Randall had a 6.27 ERA this month with meh peripherals; nothing much to cheer for here. Tejeda got pulverized this month; ERA in the 9s and a .345 BAA. Trade acquisition Hartle was excellent: 1.83 ERA in four appearances with a 1.02 whip and 20/8 K/BB in 19.2 innings. Lastly we have the return of Susana; just one game so too early to tell, but I can’t imagine he’ll be doing anything else but finishing the season in AA and then heading to the AFL to get more innings.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.
• June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1, but was then demoted back mid-month).
• July: Nobody is ready, but Clemmey probably pitched the best and is the longest-serving AA guy. Maybe another month of this and they could consider him, but at his age, there’s no reason to push him to AAA right now.
• August: Hartle

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.
• June: Chemmey
• July: Luckham, who got removed from rotation. Now likely Randall.
• Aug: Randall still isn’t good, but Clemmey and Tejeda are concerning.

Quick bullpen thoughts: There’s definitely a couple of arms to point out in AA since we acquired a bunch of them in the trade deadline. In particular: Joe Glassey (who we traded Franklin for even up) has this month: 9 games, 10 IP, 1 (one) hit, 10/1 K/BB. He had a 0.20 whip and a .031 BAA for the month. I’ll take that. Our other received asset was Virquez, who was the 3rd guy in the Griffen trade. He’s been not good for us since arriving in AA: 8ip 5/7 K/BB in that time. Lastly a mention of Holden Powell, who got demoted from AAA earlier this year but who is pitching well in what could be his last year here; the 2020 draftee is inching up on 6years with us.

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
• End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper
• End of July 2026: Sime, Tepper, Fischer, Sthele, Sullivan (plus 3 rehab starts, and a slew of one-offs).
• End of Aug 2026: Maddox, Sime, Fisher, Sullivan, Biven (likely Sales coming back into the rotation in Sept)

Changes since end of last Month: Maddox was demoted down from AA, Tepper hit the DL, and the team released Sthele. Biven has been doing openers in the interim, plus Susana got 3 rehab starts before returning to the AA rotation.

Rotation Observations: Maddox is clearly in a difficult tweener spot: he gave up 1 run in 23 innings for the month. Honestly, he wasn’t really that bad in AA and I think he needs to go backup there. Unfortunately for him the team acquired an entire rotation of AA starters at the deadline, so there’s a bit of a log jam. Sime continues to strike guys out at ridiculous rates (26 ks in 14ip in August) but is still walking guys at a walk an inning. Somehow he maintained a 1.26 ERA for the month. Fischer continues to hang around despite being an NDFA last year. Sullivan struggled badly in August with an ERA in the 9s. Biven has been operating as an Opener and had 5 “starts” for the season, mostly giving way to others. RJ Sales had a few rehab starts in Fredericksburg and is back on the active roster; i’d imagine he’ll take either Sullivan or Biven’s spot.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
• June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda (who was also promoted on 7/22)
• July: Sime
• Aug: Maddox

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
• June: Meckley (indeed he was demoted on 7/8)
• July: Tepper
• August: Sullivan

Quick bullpen thoughts: In the organization’s continual efforts to find relievers, High-A’s bullpen is now filled with MLFAs. Montero, Roberts, Stuart, Dannelly, Jimenez and Hughes all in this category, to go along with a minor league Rule5 guy in Huizi. Hopefully they find some diamonds in the rough here.

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Low-A Fredericksburg

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
• End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.
• End of July 2026: Johnson, De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Millikan, Reyes (with a bunch of openers)
• End of August 2026: De La Cruz, Harmon, Meckley, Reyes, Portorreal (plus rehab starts from Sales and Herz)

Changes since end of last Month: Johnson released (more on that in a second), Millikan turned more into a long-relief guy. Replaced by Portorreal, who came off the DL after 5 weeks or so.

Rotation Observations: Luke Johnson, 10th rounder out of UMBC who has been more than holding his own, was inexplicably released mid month. He had a 3.35 ERA this season as a 24yr old swing man repeating Low-A. For a team that has multiple players with ERAs in the 7s or higher, it makes zero sense to release this guy at this point in the season … unless there’s a dreaded “off the field” reason for it. I’m sure someone knows something, but that’s what that had to be.

De la Cruz struggled once again; a 7ERA for the month on top of an abhorrent July. Harmon did five 3-inning starts and is rock solid; he gave up 2 earned runs for the month, one via a solo homer in early August. Its too bad he’s not more stretched out thanks to injury, else he’d be ripe to promote. Meckley was just ok, he should be better having been demoted down from High-A. Reyes’ first three full season starts went well: 1.74 ERA in 3 games/10ip. Portorreal’s return from the DL was solid: lets see if he can continue.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer
• June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson
• July: None. The low-A rotation is a mess. Gus Hughes as a long reliever is best option to promote this month and indeed he was.
• Aug: Harmon

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
• June: Portorreal (put on Dev list mid-month in July)
• July: Meckley or De la Cruz. Probably Meckey since he’s 3 years older.
• Aug: Meckley again, and De La Cruz again.

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Rookie FCL

The FCL season ended on July 23rd.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
• End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan
• End of Season 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Millikan, Medina

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Rookie DSL

The season ended mercifully on August 29th. Our DSL Nats finished 14-40 for the season, 3rd worst in the DSL.

Reminder: The Milb.com DSL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
• End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas
• End of July 2026: Manzueta, Sarit, Carela, Reynoso, Thomas
• End of Season 2026: Manzueta, Sarit, Carela, Reynoso, Thomas

Changes since end of last Month: No changes really; a couple of guys were “Long relievers” probably doing tandem starts with some of these guys (Carrasco, Salas, and Ruiz).

Rotation Observations: Some big ERA numbers in this group: Reynoso and Manzueta both had double digit ERAs for the season. Reynoso walked 40 and sruck out 25 in 25innings; that’s hilarous. Manzueta struck out 39 and walked 39 in his 35 innings. Thomas not much better with an 8.71 ERA. Sarit had a solid BAA of .176 but couldn’t find the plate. Carela had more walks than Ks (22 to 21). Long Relivers Carrasco and Salas had ugly ERAs; Ruiz was the best of them with a 4.41 figure

Best stat line of the season: Edinson Hernandez. 10 games, 8innings. He walked 23 guys in 8 innings and gave up 19 runs for an ERA figure of 19.13 and a 3.75 whip. It’s like he’s in a slow pitch softball league.

Next guy to get promoted:

• June: Medina (indeed, promoted mid July)
• July: none.
• Aug: Nobody; i wouldn’t promote a single arm off this team.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• June: Manzueta
• July: Manzueta or Sarit, who’s a year older and repeating the level with no good results.
• Aug: I’ll be shocked if Manzueta and Reynoso are on the team come June next year.

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That’s it for August 2026.

It’s the week apparently for major pundits to do database updates. We had Baseball America earlier this week, we had Fangraphs a day after with their completely whacked board, and today we have the saner MLB Pipeline folks updating our top 30 for Drafted players. As we did with the BA list, here’s a quick analysis of who we added and a few comments on the handful of players they made somewhat large adjustments for mid-season

Here’s the announcement from yesterday, which has links right to our system top 30. Below is a table from my Master Nats Prospect Rank XLS where i’ve pulled out the last few MLB Pipeline ranks to show rank evolution since March for these players. BTW, that Master prospect ranks XLS is one of the things I’m most proud of maintaining; it has nearly 300 sources dating back to Nov 2004’s Baseball America system rank for our system pre move, and its where I pull these tables for these poses. We have now ranked at some point 526 players in a list of some sort since the team moved here.

8/13/26 post draft	7/24/26 post trade, pre dr aft	3/3/26 pre-season	First name	Last Name	Position
1	1	1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	2	2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	3	4	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	4	7	Seaver	King	SS
5	6	9	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
6	Pre-Draft	Pre-Draft	Chris	Hacopian	2B
7	5	25	Ronny	Cruz	SS
8	8	5	Gavin	Fein	SS
9	9	14	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
10	10	16	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
11	13	10	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
12	11	6	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
13	Pre-Draft	Pre-Draft	Chase	Brunson	OF (CF)
14	13	Pre-Trade	Jack	Cebert	RHP (Starter)
15	18	17	Coy	James	SS
16	28		Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
17	15	12	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
18	14	11	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
19	23	24	Abimelec	Ortiz	1B/OF (Corner)
20	17	15	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
21	25	Pre-Trade	Ben	Grable	RHP (Reliever)
22	12	8	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
23	Pre-Draft	Pre-Draft	Luke	Williams	SS
24	Pre-Draft	Pre-Draft	Cooper	Harris	RHP (Starter)
25	16	13	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
26	20	21	Marconi	German	SS
27	30		Yovanny	Cruz	RHP (Reliever)
28	19	20	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
29	21	22	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
30	25	28	Caleb	Lomavita	C
(In majors)	7	3	Harry	Ford	C
(In majors)	30	19	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
Traded away	29	18	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
Traded away	Traded away	27	Sean Paul	Linan	RHP (Starter)
	22	23	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
	24	26	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
	26	29	Yohandy	Morales	3B
	27	30	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
	29	Pre-Trade	Josh	Hartle	LHP (Starter)

Ok. Here we go

• In this list, the 2026 draft netted us 4 additions: Hacopian, Brunson, Williams, and Harris. Same 4 added by BA.
• 2026 Trade deadline netted us just 2 of the current top 30: Cebert & Grable. Hartle was #29 until we added in the 4 new draftees, so he’s right there.
• As of this ranking, Ford (#7) and Pinckney (#30 ish) were in the majors but still have rookie eligibility, so they’re not listed. Kent was probably promoted after this work was done else he’d be missing too under their guidelines for prospect listings.
• There’s not a ton of movement from the 7/24 list to the 8/13 list … that’s just 3 weeks of play, but we did see a couple of interesting players making somewhat significant jumps:
  • Serrano, unraked in March, went from #28 three weeks ago to #16 today. BA has jumped him up a ton as well.
  • Dickerson has gone from #8 in March to #12 three weeks ago to #22 today. Honestly, having him #12 in July was probably the problem; he should have been well below that level of ranking at that point.
  • Tejeda has gone from 13->16->25. On the one hand, I think MLB was way high on him in March, but he solved High-A in his 2nd pro season and is in AA as a 23yr old; I would think that would at least keep him somewhat where he was ranked a month ago. Weird.
  • They dumped both Cabrera and Peterson ten spots for meh 2026 performances so far.
• There were five guys on the top 30 now pushed off with addition of draftees: Angel Feliz, Eriq Swan, Yohandy Morales, Nauris De La Cruz, and Josh Hartle.

I’m not going to do a Fangraphs ranking reaction piece. I don’t think any of the other major pundits do updated rankings mid-season due to workloads, so this is it for now.

Well, we’re past the trade deadline and the 2026 draft, where we got a near top 10 pick added to the system.

How are we looking? The first shop to do a post-trade deadline and post Draft prospect inclusion is the trusty old Baseball America shop; here’s their updated top 30 with some commentary.

Here’s a link to their updated top 30 if you’re a BA subscriber, other wise the table below shoes their 8/10/26 rank along with their 7/1/26 rank.

8/10/2026	7/1/2026	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	2	Seaver	King	SS
3	3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	4	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
5	5	Ronny	Cruz	SS
6	6	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
7	Pre-Acqu	Chris	Hacopian	2B
8	7	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
9	9	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
10	10	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
11	25	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
12	Pre-Acqu	Chase	Brunson	OF (CF)
13	12	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
14	8	Gavin	Fein	SS
15	18	Coy	James	SS
16	Pre-Acqu	Cooper	Harris	RHP (Starter)
17	Pre-Acqu	Jack	Cebert	RHP (Starter)
18	20	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
19	13	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
20	Pre-Acqu	Ben	Grable	RHP (Reliever)
21	21	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
22	16	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
23	27	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
24	Pre-Acqu	Luke	Williams	SS
25	11	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
26	Pre-Acqu	Josh	Hartle	LHP (Starter)
27	15	Yohandy	Morales	3B
28	Pre-Acqu	Yovanny	Cruz	RHP (Reliever)
29	19	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
30	17	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
31	23	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
32	24	Caleb	Lomavita	C
33	26	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
34	28	Marconi	German	SS
36	30	De la Cruz	Marlon	RHP (Starter)
MLB	14	Harry	Ford	C
MLB	22	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
MLB	29	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)

Ok, so lets talk about the additions and notable changes.

• The Draft netted us 4 new top-30 prospects: Hacopian, Brunson, Harris, and Williams. Our first 4 rounders.
• The Trade Deadline also netted us 4 new top-30 prospects: Cebert, Grable, Hartle, Cruz.
• As of this ranking, 3 guys were in the MLB and are not included: Ford, Cornelio, Pinckney (though Pinckney would have been pushed off the end of the previous top 30 with all these new names coming in).
• No changes in the top 6 from 7/1 to 8/10, even though Susana seems to be on track to miss the entire season with a murky injury that’s never really been disclosed. Update: maybe not; apparently he’s on track to return next week … just in time for the season to be over.
• Hacopian slots into his first ranking at #7. Our farm system has come a long way when our first rounder comes in so low. Here’s some comparisons to other top draft picks and where they debuted in our farm system:
  • Willits: 2025 1st round, 1st overall: Went right in at our #1
  • King: 2024 1st round, 10th overall: debuted at #7 on BA’s first list post draft
  • Crews 2023 1st round, 2nd overall: was #2 on Fangraphs (behind Woods), #1 most everywhere else
  • Greene 2022 1st round 5th overall: was #5 on Fangraphs, #4 on BA’s first list
  • House 2021 1st round 11th overall: went right to #2 behind Cavalli
  • Cavalli 2020 1st round 22nd overall: Went to #4 to start
  • Rutledge 2019 1st round 17th overall: started at #4 in the system.
  • Denaburg 2018 1st round ?th overall: started at #4 on multiple shops
  • Romero 2017 1st round ?th overall: Started at #5
  • Kieboom 2016 1st round-S: 6-7th
  • Dunning 2016 1st round-S: 7th-8th
• As noted elsewhere, Jackson Kent #10 is going to get called up to pitch in the MLB rotation, above Perales.
• Samil Serrano is the first player with a significantly improved relative ranking to 5 weeks ago, going from #25 to #11 on this list. No surprise, with him slashing .300/.418/.523 in the DSL in his debut season after signing for $1.9M in January. It would be great to develop someone out of the DSL.
• Gavin Fein gets dumped 6 spots for his struggling 2026 season, fair.
• Coy James actually moved up a few spots relatively. It pays to play the infield.
  • Fein: .238/.330/.406 with 9 homers splitting time between CF and RF.
  • James: .230/.345/.438 with 18 homers playing all around the dirt.
• Our highest ranked prospect acquired in trade is AA starter Jack Cebert, ranked #17 here.
• Alex Clemmey takes a dive, from #13 to #19. Understandable given his season performance, even if he’s had some decent games lately.
• Sam Peterson takes a dive as well, from 16->22. The Nats don’t think so; they just promoted him to AAA and he’s started hot.
• The biggest drop has to be Ethan Petry, who was on the cusp of the top 10 in early July and got dropped 14 spots in this ranking. Ouch.
• In the same vein, Morales got dropped from 15 to 27 after struggling for the last two months. That seems awfully harsh.
• The last two guys on the current top 30 are also hitters who have gotten dropped: Cabrera and Wallace. Cabrera I get; he’s now finishing his 5th pro season and is struggling with the promotion to High-A, but Wallace’s dinging doesn’t make sense. he’s had a really solid season and is now in AAA.

Ford, Cornelio, and Pinckney if they were still on the list probably would come in at around 20, 25, and 30ish respectively. None of the three are graduated yet in terms of ABs or IPs, probably just some BA thing where they don’t rank guys in the majors.

Five guys got pushed out of the top 30 with all this churn: assuming they’re still in the same order:

• 31: Angel Feliz
• 32: Caleb Lomavita
• 33: Jorgelys Mota
• 34: Marconi German
• 35: Marlon De la Cruz

In terms of overall farm system rankings, I’ll be super curious to see where we sit now. One week after ranking our top 30 in July, BA put us at the #4 farm system in all of baseball, and that was before adding 8 more guys. The three teams ranked above us (Milwaukee, Tampa, LA Dodgers) are all in first place and were absolutely “buyers” at the trade deadline, meaning the combination of us adding and them all subtracting gives this team a real chance at getting to the #1 spot, which is crazy.

In all the time i’ve tracked prospects and Farm system rankings, going back well before our time in DC, the Nats farm system has been ranked #1 exactly ONCE by any shop: the 2012 Baseball America Handbook release just before we moved a bunch of guys to acquire Gio Gonzalez. Do we have a chance to get there again?

Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just July 2026 for the full season shops, the full-season for FCL and DSL, unless otherwise noted.

I’m writing this just after the trade deadline; no stats here for any of the 10 guys we acquired.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started and which are a bit outdated at this point.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

1. Eli Willits SS, High-A: Finally had a bad month, slashing just .190/.388/.222 for July. Still not bad for an 18yr old. Temperature: cooled off for sure
2. Henry Harry Ford, C AAA: was having the start to a solid month (.292/.486/.542) when he got the callup to cover for Millas’ broken finger. Is just 4-29 since his call-up. Temperature: warm for AAA performance.
3. Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: Still on the 60-day DL, and zero injury updates for 6 weeks now. This is now basically a lost season for Susana, certainly not how we thought this season would go. Temperature: still on ice.
4. Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. No new news for months. Temperature: on ice.
5. Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: regressed a bit this month from last: .238/.315/.438. So far, he has not lived up to his draft hype, though he is just 19. Temperature: cool.
6. Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey had a good month. 6 appearances, 1.98 ERA, 30/17 K/BB in 27 IP and just a .191 BAA. Hopeful this continues… Temperature: a little warm?
7. Seaver King, SS AAA: Missed basically the entire month with an oblique injury, but he’s off the DL as of 7/30. Let’s hope he has a solid run in August. No Abrams trade, thus no real pressure to call him up in 2026. Temperature: on ice, now off.
8. Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales was … great! 5 games, 1.46 ERA, .180 BAA. Still too many walks (29/16 k/bb in 24ip), but finally a solid month for the guy. Temperature: Warm.
9. Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, AA: Improved from last month, slashed .250/.333/.306 but then got hurt. On the DL as we speak, unknown what the issues is. Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now on ice for a bit.
10. Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: Finally off the DL after nearly 2 months there. Harmon’s first two starts back off the DL have looked short and effortless: 2 games, 5ip, 2 hits allowed, 0 runs. Bummer he’s missed so much time this season; at least he has August to build up some innings. Temperature: hopefully warming up.
11. Ronny Cruz: SS High-A. Fell off a cliff in July: .160/.292/.253. After such a torrid start, clearly has not made the jump to High-A and may be there for a bit. Reminder: he’s only 19. Temperature: cold.
12. Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: Very solid month for Dickerson: .261/.420/.507. He’s mostly splitting time between SS and CF still, and had 5 homers this month. Temperature: getting a lot warmer.
13. Ethan Petry, 1B AA: He slashed .221/.293/.441 in July, which is better than June but still not good. Temperature: now pretty cold.
14. Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: connected for 6 homers this month, which pushed his slugging and OPS way up: .220/.280/.476 for the month. Would like to see a better BA and OBP. Temperature: warming.
15. Angel Felix, SS High-A: Treading water from June, slashing .250/.297/.429. Reminder: he’s only 19. Temperature: luke warm.
16. Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) AA: Finally got promoted out of High-A after nearly 2 months of being the leading starter on the rotation. First two AA starts were middling; more to come in August.  Temperature: very warm for the promotion.
17. Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: Kent almost matched his June numbers with a 4.66 ERA for July; a quick peek at his advanced numbers shows a 3.85 Fip and a .324 BABIP, so he’s a bit better than appearances. Not good enough yet to be seriously pressing for a promotion, especially since he’s not on the 40-man. Temperature: room temperature.
18. Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: 4 starts, just 14 IP. 2.51 ERA, 1.12 whip; ok those are solid. He gave up FIVE hits in the month. Five. 23/11 K/BB in those 14 innings. Ok, so maybe the guy can’t find the plate, but when he does, he mostly strikes people out. .106 BAA. I wrote it elsewhere, but you have to move this guy up again, even though he’s walking nearly a guy an inning and he’s only 19. You have to find a level where they actually hit the guy. Temperature: still hot.
19. Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; On the full-season DL, hopefully to return in 2027. No new news. Temperature: on ice.
20. Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: still struggling 2 months into his High-A promotion: .207/.283/.341. It’s just hard to hit in Wilmington. Temperature: cooled off.

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Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B in AAA had another poor batting average month, but still had an .843 OPS for the month with the power he’s shown.: .217/.321/.522. Hopefully with the trades of Mead & Garcia this opens up an eventual slot for Morales.
• #30 Cayden Wallace finally earned a promotion to AAA and had the typical adjustment month: .210/.242/.306. Great for him to finally push his way to AAA, now sharing middle infield time with Glasser, King, and Lipscomb.
• #31 Phillip Glasser 2B in AAA had another great month: .351/.471/.421. Hopefully with the clear-out of players in AAA, he’ll have a clear path to full-time playing time.
• #32 Andrew Pinckney, against all odds, got called up after years of solid AAA production.
• #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA hit just .211 but had an OPS > .800, and as a 40-man member got the call-up to replace Garcia upon his trade.
• The team parted ways with Hassell, and Weimer continues not to hit and likely is in the lead for “next man to get cut from the 40-man if the team needs a spot,” especially since the team opted to add Pinckney instead of recalling him. Weimer, now as of this writing, is the sole non-pitcher on the 40-man who remains in the minors post trades. Postpublish update; a few hours after writing this, the team put Weimer on release waivers.
• Riley Adams is crushing the ball … but needs an injury to get back on the 40-man/back tot he majors. They played him at 1B the other day, interesting.
• Former 40-man member Trey Lipscomb is crushing the ball too: .356/.410/ .533 in July as a middle infielder.

In AA:

• #21 Sam Peterson continues to struggle, hitting just .229 this month after hitting .221 last month. He’s definitely stalling in 2026.
• #26 Caleb Lomavita settled down a bit in July: .264/.316/.396. The team opted to keep him starting in AA when Ford got called up, instead leaving Adams as the starting C in AAA and promoting one of the AA backups. I’m guessing we won’t see a Lomavita promotion this year.
• #60 TJ White, showed some power this month with 5 homers in AA but still struggling to a .221 BA.
• Brandon Boissiere powered it up in July: .306/.378/.514.
• Isaac Lyon, the throw-in player in the Ferrer-Ford trade, has been quietly an assassin this season, earning 2 promotions and now more than holding his own in AA. July numbers: 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts.1.06 whip, .229 BAA.
• AA is where most of our Trade deadline acquisitions have initially landed: they’ve added 2 starters, 4 relievers and an OF. We’ll see how things shake out for next month’s version of this and the rotation post.
  
  

In High-A:

• #40 Kevin Bazzell continues to produce with a .953 OPS figure in July. Nowhere to go though.
• #61 Randal Diaz got flipped to Baltimore on 7/1 for a AAA reliever.
• Elijah Green had a nice slashline .296/.363/.444 to go with his 40 Ks in 22 games.
• Jacob Walsh rebounded in a big way for July, mashing 8 homers for a slugging percentage in the 600s.
• Jack Moroknek had his 2nd straight month of hitting in the .125 range post promotion.
• Carson Fischer was a 2025 NDFA who had a 3.18 ERA month in the High-A rotation; can’t ask for much more than that from a $10k signing.

In Low-A:

• #38 Sir Jamison Jones had another sub .200 batting month.
• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr bounced back with a solid .286/.444/.405 month.
• #41 Cristian Vaquero finally got off the DL, and got demoted to Low-A for his troubles. He only hit .229 in F’burg when he got there, and his career seems stalled.
• #51 Dashyll Tejeda, took a step back in his second Low-A month, hitting just .204.
• Unranked Jordan Williams, a 26yr old NDFA signed earlier this year, continues to hit and needs to be socially promoted.
• Unranked Elian Soto continues to hit: .271/.386/.458 for July, though without much power. His brother, he is not, but he’s showing some value.
• Note: just as I was getting ready to publish, the first 2026 draftee got moved to a full-season team in CA Cashel Dugger, 9th rounder this year.
  

In FCL, whose season ended in mid July, here’s seasonal stats for the 25IFA class that moved up from the DSL from 2025. Some good, mostly bad.

• #23 Marconi German; .246/.425/.486 for the season with some power and improvement from June->July.
• #36 Brayan Cortesia: .243/.381/.257 for the season: that’s just 2 XBH in 144 ABs. That’s not good.
• #42 Daniel Hernandez: .190/.238/.215 for the season, getting worse as he went along. Ugh.
• #46 Browm Martinez: .271/.431/.430; that’s solid, but not a ton of power.
• #47 Victor Hurtado .259/.410/.407, really turning it around in July.
• Maxim Medina pitched twice at the end of the FCL after dominating DSL this year and got absolutely shelled: 4.2 IP, 10 runs
• Juan Lopez‘s K/BB numbers are hilarious: 37ip: 46Ks and 33walks. He’s an older IFA; signed last year but already 21, so that may explain things.

In DSL, here’s the seasonal hitting stats for the four marquee 2026 IFA signings:

• Isaias Suarez OF (corner): ..198/.390/.337; struggling to start his career. At least he’s getting BBs.
• Angel Ramirez OF (corner): .205/.346/.375; about in line with the first month.
• Samil Serrano OF (cf): .297/.413/.517 so far; looking really good.
• Juan Duran 1B: .327/.431/.478; came back a bit from a hot July, still a .900 OPS for the season.

In the DSL, the remaining big money 2025IFA signings who are still there:

• Ronny Bello SS: .291/.404/.455, adding even more power from June, clearly earning a promotion to FCL in 2027.
• Esnaider Vargas: Of/DH: ..292/.355/.458, a solid year so far.
• Jonierbis Garces: OF (corner): .266/.408/.316; had a really good July to increase his BA and OBP; little power.
  
  

As of 5:45pm, I thought perhaps our all-star starter Foster Griffin may be sticking around, since we hadn’t heard of any moves ahead of (what I thought was the ) 5pm EST deadline for trades. I guess it was 6pm EST, because we jammed in one last trade.

Griffin heads to Cleveland for four guys:

• Josh Hartle, LHP AA starter with a 3.86 ERA in 19 starts this season
• Will Dion, LHP reliever with some MLB and a solid 25/3 K/BB ratio
• Kendeglys Virguez, a RHP reliever with a 14.3 K/9 rate this year who just got moved to AA
• Nick Mitchell, a 22yr old OF with decent numbers in AA (.240 with some power, some speed)

The best prospect of course is the AA starter Hartle, who slots just into the back of our top 30 prospects on MLBpipeline.

Is this a great return? No, not really on the face of it. Is it an understandable return? Yes it is. Yes, Griffin was an all-star, one of the best pitchers this season by most measures. He’s also a FA in two months and rebuffed extension talks before getting moved, because of course he did. He toiled in Japan for years to get this shot, now he’s in his age 30 season and he has one big chance in open free agency to get that “one big career deal” that sets him up. He doesn’t want a one-year QO; he wants a 4-5 year deal that sets him up for life.

Should the Nats have kept him, offered him a QO and taken the comp pick instead of what they got? Maybe. As a “large market” team that’s stayed below the luxury tax, under the current system our comp pick would have been just before the 3rd round starts in 2027, somewhere around the 75th overall pick. Would that be better than what we just got? Debatable. Our 3rd rounder this year (Luke Williams, drafted 78th overall) is a prep SS who we probably don’t see until 2030; is that the kind of player you’d rather have instead of the four we got, all of whom are already in AA or higher?

The ship sailed on keeping these guys on Sunday night, so we were going to move him for something, and this sounds like the best deal we could get.

One last side note: the Nats also made an under the radar smart trade, moving the buried AAA outfielder Franklin for another arm.

Clearly there’s a trend here: the bullpen construction project in the off-season of MLFAs and waiver claims just didn’t work. Now they’re going to try building a bullpen from prospects and (hopefully) some strategic FA signings for 2027.

Working on the big board updates and 40-man machinations now.

Btw, I hate that my July rotation piece got buried by these two trade pieces; it takes a significant amount of time to do that post. Bummer 🙂

Before we moved Curtis Mead, I wrote a bit about “should we trade assets” at the trade deadline. The decision basically was whether to keep everybody in order to make a possibly futile run at the final Wild card, so that we could earn ourselves a 3-game away series in Atlanta.

Well, we just got SWEPT in a 4-game series in Atlanta, as a pretty clear preview of what we were actually fighting for, and before the final game of the sweep was done, the GM had clearly red the tea leaves properly and the team had moved Luis Garcia. He was held out of Sunday’s game .. but still boarded the team charter to Philadelphia since the trade wasn’t finalized, so he got the news mid-flight, and then had to catch a shuttle up the coast to join his new team.

The return for Garcia:

• Yovanny Cruz, 26yr old 40-man RHP reliever who just made his MLB debut
• Jake Bird, 30yr old 30-man journeyman RHP reliever who’s in his 5th pro season but who still has 2 years of arb control.
• Jack Cebert, a 2025 15th round RHP starter from Texas Tech who just got to AA
• Ben Grable, a 2025 11th round RHP reliever from Indiana who also just got to AA.

Two 40-man players coming over; one replaces Garcia and Poulin goes to the 60-day to make room for the other.

We part ways with the longest serving player in our organization, an IFA we signed in 2016 as a 16 yr old who has certainly run the gamut of ups and downs in this org. He was a serious non-tender candidate just last December, but for reasons discussed in my post on the topic then, the team kept him and things paid off. He’s mashing this year, slashing .283/.313/.560 as of the trade, well ahead of his career slash line of .368/.301/.431. He LEADS the NL in slugging percentage amongst qualified hitters, which is amazing to see. He’s also an abhorrent fielder, going from -17 DRS at SS in 2022, then getting moved to 2B, where he got progressively worse over the next 3 years, culminating with a -17 DRS figure in 2025 (that’s awfully hard to do at 2B), which then led to him going to 1B this year.

To his credit, he’s slugged his way into supporting his starting at 1B. He’s also a severe platoon guy, posting a .918 OPS figure against RHP this season versus just a .627 OPS against LHP. Despite hitting well this season, his OPS is still a meager .313, but he goes to a park where his pull-happy swing could net him homers in bunches.

My cynical take? We took a non-tender candidate with a career .301 OPS who’s been relegated to 1B and turned him into 4 arms. No, these are not 4 arms who are going to challenge for the Cy Young necessarily, but we’ve turned Garcia into two relievers who can help today, a pretty solid looking AA reliever, and a AA starter who could turn into something.

I like this trade, and I like what the front office is thinking.