So, this image floated across my Facebook feed randomly the other day, and I was struck by it. I’ve seen these done elsewhere, but never for Baseball rotations. So, i’m in.
Build your rotation. $15 max spend. Here’s my “rules” for the competition:
You have to pick 5 guys: you can’t pick three from the $5 line and say, “the rest are AAA starters”
Consider each pitcher by their peak, not by their entire career. I say this because a few of these guys tailed off badly, or are more known for their longevity.
Ignore the fact that some (one?) of these guys has PED associations. I guess that’s just a concern for Clemens. I didn’t end up picking him anyway.
OK here’s my team:
$5 Sandy Koufax: no better stretch of dominance at the end of his career.
$5 Pedro Martinez: he put up a 291 ERA+ season in the height of the PED era.
$2 Bob Feller: that’s some serious value for $2
$2 Curt Schilling. Twitter comments aside, he was a very good starter. Never won a Cy Young, losing out multiple times to his own teammates, else he’d be a no-brainer Hall of Famer.
$1 Orel Hershiser. Best in the sport for a short amount of time, short enough to cost him the Hall. I’ll take that as my 5th starter.
We’ve been discussing our International Free Agency (IFA) class futility a bit in the comments, and today 1/15/26 is the day we announce our newest crop of international signees, so lets take a quick peek at how things have gone and who we have coming into the system today.
We’ll be using my IFA Signing Tracker to drive this conversation. I’ve built this back to the 2016 class with a slew of information per player, including links to their milb.com page, bonuses, positions, and (most importantly); their “high level” achieved. As discussed in the comments, we’ve seen very, very little production for the past decade of drafts: Working backwards, here’s an idea:
2025: $6.2M bonus pool, two $1M plus players plus a bunch of mid 6-figure guys. Four guys getting prospect love (the two big $ guys Cortesia and Hernandez, plus German and $10k signing De La cruz)
2024: $5.9M pool, about half went to two guys in Hurtado and Feliz. Feliz now on precipice of the top 10, Hurtado scuffling around after two straight weak DSL seasons. Nobody else of note from class.
2023: $5.2M pool, two $1M plus players in Acevedo and Solano. Solano already released, only a couple other very weak prospects showing out right now in Tejeda and Jose Feliz.
2022: $5.1M pool, $4.9M of which went to Vaquero. Also spent $250k on Mota. Vaquero just repeated low-A for the third year, while Mota is starting to creep up the ranks and is ahead of Vaquero on most lists right now.
2021: $5.3M pool, $3.9M of which went to Armando Cruz in another “put all our eggs in one basket” class. We don’t have a single player from this class ranked on any prospect list at present.
2020: no class – Covid: we ended up signing a couple of guys later in 2020 for that “class” but they’ve all since been released.
2019: $4.3M pool, we gave $1M plus to two guys (Lara, Aldonis). Also $800k to Quintana (released) and Dawry Martinez (released). Lara made the MLB but is now considered a weak prospect and likely is a AAA-ceiling guy. Aldonis is still in High-A.
2018 and 2017 fell into the “IFA signing bonus penalty phase” based on our team’s actions in the 2016 draft, where we purposely blew past the bonus pool to knowingly accept penalties in the next two years.
2018: $4.9M pool but with a $300k/per player signing cap; we signed a few $300k players but the best anyone did was Jose Atencio making AA before hitting MLFA. One player remains in the system at this point (Otanez).
2017: $4.75M pool, but we came nowhere close to it. Recently traded reliever Ferrer was the sole player to make the majors, and one other remains active (backup middle infielder Pena).
2016: We had a $2.3M pool and paid out at least $6.5M of bonuses that I can find, playing the IFA bonus gambit at the time. This class produced at least four MLB ers in Garcia, Pineda, Adon, and Yadiel Hernandez, but remains infamous in Nats circles for the $3.9M given to Yasel Antuna.
So, that’s the sordid decade-long history of our bonus spending.
We have a new management team in town, so we should see a new direction and strategy in Latin America … eventually. Unfortunately, the deals announced today have been in place for months, and have been under negotiation for years, so the impact of the new group won’t fully be seen until at least next January. But, that being said, lets take a look at what we know about the 2026 class.
We’ve signed 15 players today. Like several classes on this list, our 2026 class can be categorized as a “Stars and Scrubs” class, albeit with our $6.6M pool being spread out to four $1m+ players instead of putting it all on one guy as we did in the Cruz/Vaquero classes. So, we’re going to spend around $6M of that $6.6M on the top four guys. Right now, BA and Fangraphs slightly differ in the $$ figures, but I’ll use the BA numbers for this post. Also below: overall class ranks below (fangraphs first, then BA, then MLBpipeline)
#12/#18/#40: Suarez, Isalas, a true CF from the DR with a $1.9M bonus
#13/#16/#26 Serrano, Samil*, corner OF from the DR with a $1.97M bonus.
#45/#52/#50+: Ramirez, Angel#, corner OF from the DR $1M bonus.
#52/#53/#50+: Duran, Juan, corner OF from the DR, $1M bonus.
So, these four guys are basically going to be the class. The BA site lists a 5th player of note, yet another outfielder named Jawel Garcia who will probably get a few hundred thousand of the remaining amount.
I’ll just point out the obvious. Our 5 best IFAs this year … are all Outfielders?? Uh, only three can play a day guys. The BA link says Ramirez was a short stop until very recently, so maybe they return him to the dirt, and a couple of these guys are a bit taller so maybe you stash them at 1B so everyone can play .. but this seems kind of short-sighted to spent all this money and purposely put the DSL manager in the position of juggling the lineup from day one to play everyone.
post publish updates: added MLBpipeline class ranks, added links for Nats class from Nationals.com
Sykora remains #1 at least one one list. Photo MASN
Hot on the heels of the Baseball America top 30 list, we get the fantasy-first Prospects1500 site’s list for the system. They’re the only shop that earnestly ranks to #50, and we often get a decent look into the down-stream prospects in our system in the eyes of an independent evaluator.
Prospects1500 is unabashedly a Fantasy site; they say it right in the subheading: “Your comprehensive dynasty League resource.” It caters to hard-core Fantasy baseball leagues who do dynasty drafting, meaning you draft prospects and keep them on your roster like a “real” team. I’ve run out of people even willing to do basic Fantasy Baseball, let alone the diehards who would do a keeper league with 18yr olds who may not show up for 7 years. That being said, it colors their rankings a bit. You’re going to see ceiling valued more than floor, you’re going to see positions of scarcity (i.e. Catchers) pushed up a bit as compared to things like corner OFs, and you’re going to see future save projections come into play with high-leverage relievers. We’ll cover them a bit below.
Here’s the top 50, along with their ranking for the same players last year at this time.
Current Rank
Jan 2025 Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
3
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
2
Not yet Drafted
Eli
Willits
SS
3
5
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
Not yet Traded for
Harry
Ford
C
5
Not yet Traded for
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
6
17
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
7
4
Seaver
King
SS
8
7
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
9
Not yet Drafted
Coy
James
SS
10
Not yet Drafted
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
11
Not yet Drafted
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
12
6
Yohandy
Morales
3B
13
Not yet Traded for
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
14
21
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
15
37
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
16
Not yet Traded for
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
17
12
Caleb
Lomavita
C
18
Not yet IFA signed
German
Marconi
SS
19
Not yet Traded for
Eriq
Swan
RHP (Starter)
20
Not yet IFA signed
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
21
Not yet Drafted
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
22
Not yet Drafted
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
23
13
Victor
Hurtado
OF (Corner)
24
20
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
25
18
Cristian
Vaquero
OF (CF)
26
Not yet Traded for
Ronny
Cruz
SS
27
Not yet Drafted
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
28
Not Yet rule-5 Drafted
Griff
McGarry
RHP (Starter)
29
11
Cayden
Wallace
2B/3B
30
Not yet Traded for
Josh
Randall
RHP (Starter)
31
Not yet IFA signed
Nauris
De La Cruz
OF (Corner)
32
45
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
33
44
Phillips
Glasser
SS
34
Not yet IFA signed
Daniel
Hernandez
C
35
outside top 50
Riley
Cornelio
RHP (Starter)
36
Not yet Traded for
Browm
Martinez
OF (CF)
37
26
Kevin
Bazzell
C
38
Not Yet MLFA signed
Orelvis
Martinez
2B
39
Not yet Traded for
Jake
Eder
LHP (Starter)
40
Not yet Traded for
R.J.
Sales
RHP (Starter)
41
16
Andry
Lara
RHP (Starter)
42
15
Elijah
Green
OF (CF)
43
outside top 50
Dashyll
Tejeda
OF (CF)
44
42
Sir Jamison
Jones
C
45
39
Andrew
Alvarez
LHP (Starter)
46
22
Kevin
Made
SS
47
28
Jose
Feliz
RHP (Starter)
48
33
Marquis
Grissom
RHP (Reliever)
49
Not Yet Drafted
Boston
Smith
C/OF
50
36
T.J.
White
OF (Corner)
Like with the BA list, lots of churn here:
Only 22 of this top 50 were even ranked last year.
Of those 28 new guys:
8 are new draftees
4 are Jan 2025 IFA signings
10 are Trade Acquisitions
1 is an off-season MLFA signing (Orelvis Martinez)
1 is our Rule-5 acquisition in December (McGarry)
2 were in our system last year just outside their top 50
Of their top 50 last year? 18 of the 50 are no longer eligible:
9 graduated/exhausted rookie eligibility
4 hit MLFA status (De La Rosa, Acosta, Choi, Naranjo)
2 were released (Baker, Quintana)
1 was traded (Bennett)
1 was a Rule5 pick we returned (Reifert … remember him?)
1 was DFA’d and claimed (Brzycky)
Furthermore, there were 8 guys ranked in last year’s top 50 who didn’t make it this time:
Tyler Stuart, #14 last year and unranked this year (probably the biggest “Whaaa?” in this ranking)
Rafael Ramirez Jr.
Orlando Ribalta
Armando Cruz
Seth Shuman
Brennar Cox
Andres Chapparo
Brandon Pimental
Ok lets do some quick analysis of the list. Obviously I’m not going to talk about all 50, so i’ll scan down the list and hit some highlights
Sykrora at #1. We just had a list that dropped him to #5, but these guys keep him at 1-1. It’s obviously a projection of him returning 100% to form and getting to the majors in 2027.
The rest of the top5 as expected.
Dickerson way too high at #6, based on his pro debut.
I’d have put Clemmey above King and Dickerson based on what he accomplished at his age.
Our three big prep bonus babies come in at #9, #10, and #21. BA had them #9, #11, and #19 so similar thinking.
The first big surprise was having Linan all the way up at #13. I like Linan that high (I had him #11 on my post-2025 season list), but BA had him all the way down at #23. Big arm, young guy, but 3 DL trips in 2025 give some pause.
Angel Feliz a bit lower than I’d like to see him at #14; I think he’s edge of the top 10.
Jackson Kent, who got some criticism in the last post … is also #15 on this list, same ranking as BA.
Another big surprise: Eriq Swan at #19. BA didn’t even have him in their top 30. I had him too high in my post-season first cut, and early 20s seems right.
Sam Peterson, the darling of the BA list, down at #22. I think he should at least be in the mid teens.
Hurtado at #23 when BA didn’t have him at all. Seems like a bonus amount ranking still. Same with Vaquero at #25.
Wallace and Randall keep their spots in the top 30 here by the skin of their teeth. I think this is about right for both.
They’ve got Mota too low: #32 when BA has him at #20.
Glasser comes in at #33, likely depressed b/c he’s not projecting to be a huge fantasy star.
Cornelio is probably too low at #35; the guy’s on the 40-man roster, which mean’s he’s almost guaranteed to produce in the majors in 2026.
First mention of under-the-radar trade acquisition Browm Martinez (that name is going to drive me crazy). He’s at #36.
MLFA signing Orelvis Martinez at #38: i’m not surprised we don’t see more MLFA edge prospects showing up. He turned 24 just after the season ended, having exhausted his 7 years of service in his prior club. He’s now completely in FA years ahead of where a college draftee would be thanks to the early signing of the IFA market.
Andry Lara at #40. I mean, really? Is he a prospect at all anymore?
Green stays on the list like fellow big $$ signees Vaquery and Hurtado.
Andrew Alvarez way too low at #45 … he should be 20 spots higher.
2025 Draftee Boston Smith debuts on any prospect chart at #49 … thanks to his Catcher eligiblity.
TJ White rounds up the list at #50 … for some reason. He hit .231 repeating High-A for the third year as a corner outfielder … I guess its b/c he’s still just 22.
Best players missing:
Tyler Stuart, as discussed above
Davian Garcia: solved low-A in his first pro season and held his own in high-A rotation for a few turns. I’ll take that over a reliever who got shelled in AAA. He’s 2 years younger than Swan and had better numbers than him .. but Swan is #19 and Garcia is in the 50s?
Armando Cruz: I mean, if we’re ranking Hurtado, Vaquero and Green, might as well throw this guy in there as well.
Harry Ford (not “Henry” as I keep typing subconsciously) debus at #3 on BA’s ranks for our system. Photo via Seattle Times
The first big scouting shop just released their top 30 prospects for 2026, and it’s a doozy. There’s big deltas between theirs and what we know of so far from other shops, lots of recognition of players who had break-out seasons in 2025, and lots of new names from this time last year. Let’s take a look.
I’m going to add in their ranking from 2025 as part of the below table and part of the discussion.
Current Rank
Jan 2025 Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Not yet drafted
Eli
Willits
SS
2
3
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
3
Not Yet Acquired
Harry
Ford
C
4
Not Yet Acquired
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
5
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
6
6
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
7
5
Seaver
King
SS
8
11
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
9
Not yet drafted
Coy
James
SS
10
15
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
11
Not yet drafted
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
12
40
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
13
Not yet drafted
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
14
16
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
15
36
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
16
22
Yohandy
Morales
3B
17
Not Yet IFA signed
German
Marconi
SS
18
8
Caleb
Lomavita
C
19
Not yet drafted
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
20
Outside top 40
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
21
Not yet drafted
Ronny
Cruz
SS
22
Not yet Acquired
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
23
Not yet Acquired
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
24
35
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
25
Outside top 40
Riley
Cornelio
RHP (Starter)
26
Outside top 40
Andrew
Alvarez
LHP (Starter)
27
Outside top 40
Phillips
Glasser
SS
28
Outside top 40
Nauris
De La Cruz
OF (Corner)
29
17
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
30
Not yet R5 drafted
Griff
McGarry
RHP (Starter)
So, Here’s some macro facts from just BA’s top 30 today versus one year ago:
12 of the 30 are new to the Organization since Jan 2025
5 from the 2025 Draft (Willits, James, Harmon, Petry, Sime)
5 from Trades (Ford, Perales, Franklin, Linan, Cruz
1 from the 2025 IFA class (Marconi)
1 from Rule-5 in December (McGarry)
2 of the top 30 were outside of the top 30 last year but in the “honorable mention” 30-40 range (Tejeda, Peterson)
5 of the top 30 were not listed in BA’s top 30 (or even their extended top 40) last year (Mota, Cornelio, Alvaraz, Glasser, and De La Cruz)
So, for as much as I’ve criticized the player development of the Rizzo regime … that’s an awful lot of guys matriculating to the majors and being productive parts of the MLB team. Perhaps you can quibble about how much they’re “contributing,” but when you push 9 prospects to the MLB roster in one year … that’s a win. Of course, many of these guys are the ones who are supposed to be contributing: of these 11 graduates, six were 1st rounders and another three were 2nd rounders. I have harped ad naseum about the Rizzo regime “blowing” basically every 2nd round pick (and a bunch of 1st rounders) for a decade straight … but now some of them are actually making it.
Ok, so that being said, lets run through some comments/observations on this list.
#1 Willits has either been #1 or #2 on every ranking since his arrival. No surprise he’s top here. BA has him arriving 2028 at age 20, which is CJ Abrams’ last year before FA. Something tells me we’re not going to get to that point with CJ on this team, which means we’ll be putting a stop-gap at SS (Nunez?) or maybe Willits blasts through the minors Bryce Harper style and is starting at age 19.
BA keeps Susana just above new high-profile acquisitions Ford and Perales despite his injuries last year. Other shops have him perhaps in-between the two.
Sykora slots in at #5, just below the two guys we’ve just acquired. That implies he was #3 before we got these two guys in trade. I took some grief for dropping Sykora to 5th on my own list at the end of 2025’s season … when I republish that ranking in April I probably will adjust it slightly.
There’s probably an implicit “gap” between our current top 5 and even to #6, Clemmey. The next 5 ranked guys are all relatively young as compared to the AA and AAA heavy top 5.
King comes in at #7 … probably on the back of a few hot weeks in the AFL. That seems to be consistent where other shops have him ranked right now. I was very down on King in September, and now have rebounded, perhaps drinking the AFL kool-aid. I mean, we want the guy to succeed right?
Dickerson somehow retains his top 10 ranking despite an awful season at the plate in 2025 and faces a positional conundrum shortly: who plays SS for Low-A next season? Luke may be finding another position. Luckily we already knew he was like a SS/CF coming out of HS.
Our big money RHP 2025 prep kids (James, Harmon, Sime) come in ranked #9, #11, and #19 respectively. James (the 5th rounder) is highest here, over 3rd rounder Harmon (both got the same $$ figure). I know some pundits struggle to rank these kinds of guys: prep RHP are the riskiest of risky in the sport.
The first big out of nowhere name: Sam Peterson at #12, one slot ahead of Petry. This guy blew up in 2025, nearly posting a 3/4/5 slash line in High-A as an 8th round pick the year before. That’d be some found gold right there if he continues to contribute. Also: 18/0 SB/CS in High-A and he plays a true CF. Sounds like a Jacob Young-type (an unheralded 7th round defense-first college bat).
Pinckney at #14 just seems high. I just don’t see where he goes with this organization. He’s, what, 8th on the OF depth chart? (Wood, Hassell, Crews, Young, Wiemer, Lile, Franklin ahead of him): only 3 of them can play at a time. Seems like we should move him.
Lomavita at #18 seems a bit low, and the acquisition of Ford really changes the trajectory of the entirely of our Catcher depth chart right now. I don’t think Ford is on the MLB team to open the season with just a few MLB ABs, but he’ll be starting in AAA. Which means Millas is either on the MLB bench or on the AAA bench. I’m not sure where Adams fits in; he signed a split contract (meaning he has negotiated his minor league salary), meaning they’re anticipating going to the minors … but he has no options left, which means he’ll have to pass through waivers to get off the 40-man. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. My initial guess? Ruiz/Millas in MLB, Ford/Adams in AAA, Lomavita/Romero back in AA, Bazzell/Rombach in High-A, with all the starters just waiting to see if Ruiz can keep his starting job.
Next up on the surprise inclusion list: Jorgelys Mota, 3B in Low-A. He’s starting to get noticed. He’s also part of a major log-jam in Low-A: the following guys are all solid prospects in the 18-20 year old range who play on the right side of the infield: Willits, Dickerson, Feliz and Mota. That’s 4 guys for 2 spots in Low-A where they all belong. Maybe one of them is pushed up to High-A, or maybe they all juggle ABs and IPs in Fredericksburg, maybe Dickerson goes to CF.
Cornelio’s great 2025 finally gets him onto the BA list at #25. He was the Nats Minor League Pitcher of the Year and deservedly gets included in the BA top 30.
Alvarez, who has almost never been considered a prospect, comes in at #26. I’m super curious to see how Alvarez’ 2026 shakes out. Is he really in the mix for a MLB rotation spot? I mean, Small Sample Size of course but in 5 late season starts he had a 2.31 ERA that was decently supported by his FIP (3.39). Do you stick him in the bullpen? Does he have the right kind of stuff to be in a MLB pen? Or, do you put him in AAA again to keep him stretched out? I dunno. Good problem to have I suppose.
Phillip Glasser gets ranked by a major shop for the first time ever, after his Nats Minor League Hitter of the year season in 2025. He’ll be a starting corner OF in AAA in 2026, but he’s got the same problem Pinckney does: positional congestion. Of course, Lile looked completely blocked at the beginning of 2025 as well, then hit so well you kind of have to find a spot for him in the lineup. So, things can change.
Nauris De La Cruz gets the #29 spot after mostly solving DSL pitching this year; final slash line .294/.448/.450. He’ll be state-side in the FCL to start 2026. Hopefully Florida food will help him fill out (6’0″ and 160?!).
Our new rule-5 pick Griff McGarry comes in at #30; he should make the MLB bullpen and graduate pretty quickly.
Notable Players left off the BA top 30:
Eriq Swan: I may have the trade-acquisition over-rated on my list.
Orelvis Martinez, AAA MLFA signing who MLBpipeline has at like #20 right now
Andry Lara: I’ve been down on him for a while but many still hold out hope.
Daniel Hernandez: an interesting omission given that he’s as high as #13 elsewhere and was a big-money IFA signing, but he struggled in his first DSL Season (don’t worry, he was super young upon signing)
Cristhian Vaquero: I’m guessing he’s still hanging around in the 30-40 range on BA’s list, like he does on others.
Josh Randall: Edge of the top 30 type on many lists.
Tyler Stuart: TJ knocks him off for a bit; hopefully can get back.
Cayden Wallace: hard to believe how far he’s fallen. Maybe he can put together a solid season and regain some prospect status. Would love to see him hit to his capabilities and fill the 2B slot in the bigs so we can move some guys around.
Victor Hurtado: that $2.8M in 2024 IFA bonus not looking good
Elijah Green; phew he’s getting up there as our biggest 1st round bust ever, if not already there.
Writer’s note: corrected Ronny Cruz’ acquisition method in the top section; he was acquired in the Soroka trade, not via the draft. Thanks to @Will in the comments for the correction.
Toboni has a young exec team; will it work? Photo via IG
Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race. I posted this on 1/1/26, then the site immediately took a dump, but seems to be back now, so lets try this again.
Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.
I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.
Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?
I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.
Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning.
Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)
Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.
Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system
See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?
Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).
I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:
Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?
Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:
At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.
Since he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings, I’m now thinking Gore sticks with us until next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.
Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.
So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.
Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?
Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker/Williams for the 5th.
Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:
Gore, Grey, Cavalli
Griffin locked in as the #4
Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
Alvarez proved he can pitch in the Majors and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen. All have options but it’d seem foolish to put any of them back in AAA.
Herz to the DL
Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.
So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.
I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.
Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.
Hey team … Luke Erickson let me know the comments aren’t working. My apologies.
The whole blog was down last week, but came up after updating the version. Now everything is updated, and the comments don’t work. I’ve got my hosting provider looking at it now.
Apologies; look forward to chatting with everyone ASAP. I’ll re-post my last one once we’re through this and can engage again.
New GM Paul Toboni has some big decisions ahead. Photo via IG
Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race.
Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.
I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.
Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?
I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.
Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning:
Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)
Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.
Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system
See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?
Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).
I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:
Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?
Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:
At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.
Now, I’m thinking Gore sticks with us til next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.
Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.
So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.
Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?
Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker for the 5th.
Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:
Gore, Grey, Cavalli
Griffin locked in as the #4
Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
Alvarez proved he can do the same and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen
Herz to the DL
Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.
So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.
I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.
Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.
The Nats new GM reached back out to his old team and made a trade you just don’t see that often; prospect for prospect, two minor leaguers (essentially) for each other, both of whom are at the cusp of MLB production.
Jake Bennett heads to Boston straight up for Luis Perales a 22yr old RHP starter who got a cup of coffee with Boston this year.
From a prospect ranking perspective, MLBpipeline had Bennett as our #11 and now has Perales as our new #5, so in theory our farm system improves marginally. In reality, whether it was Bennett or Perales in our AAA rotation to start 2026, both would be expected to matriculate up this year. Perales is only 22 as an international signee, and has more upside/more risk, while Bennett is considered more floor/more consistent.
Keith Law had some interesting analysis in the immediate wake of the trade, noting that Bennett (and the Nats pitching dev staff) had done little to improve upon his offerings in his time here (either in terms of velocity or adding breaking pitches), whereas Boston has had success in helping its arms improve. Something to think about; Boston must have seen something it thinks it can improve upon with Bennett, while Toboni rolls the dice on a higher upside arm that he’s familiar with.
Here’s what our rough SP depth chart looks like right now on the 40-man:
Likely opening day rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Alvarez/Irvin/Parker competition
Likely starters->bullpen: McGarry, Lord, Williams
To the DL: Herz
To AAA: Perales, Lao, Eder, Cornelio
That’s not a bad AAA rotation to start, adding to it Luckham, Shuman, and Ogasawara as 5th candidates
Anyway, odds are we’re not done seeing trades. Big question is whether he will move Gore now or try to leverage desperate teams at the 2026 trade deadline … and if he can convince other teams that Abrams is really a shortstop.
UCLA Shortstop Roch Cholowsky is looking like a sure-fire 1-1 candidate. Photo via BA.
So, now that we know we’re picking #11 (which … we may have already known anyway), lets take a quick peek at some of the names being thrown around at the top of the 2026 draft. December 2025 is a very long way from June 2026, but some of these names will remain at the top of the board.
Here’s a first look at the 2026 draft class. I’ll split the players into college and prep, and delineate between players who have consistently been in the early 1-1 talk versus those who have fallen out of the discussions.
Right now the class is looking very hitter heavy, with most of the names thrown around at the top being position players. Cholowsky is getting some separation for 1-1, but probably changes as we get closer to the draft, since it is the Chicago “Cheapskate” White Sox picking 1-1, and they may very well be looking at spreading out the dollars and fighting with his representative about a ten-figure signing bonus.
More likely, we’ll see someone at #11 who was previously in the top-5 mix but who fell for some reason or another, not unlike how we ended up with Anthony Rendon in 2012 or Brady House in 2021. Rendon is an interesting call back: he was also basically the best hitter in the college game as a sophomore (as was Cholowsky last year), then had an injury plagued junior season that dropped him to us; might happen again.
College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. BA’s College POTY in 2025 as a Sophomore, clear 1-1 candidate in early 2026 draft considerations. Only 60-grade guy on the board from ProspectsLive. #1 on MLBpipeline’s first list, called consensus 1-1.
Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama: .316/.421/.636 line with 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 2025. #3 on MLBP’s first board.
Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. #2 on ProspectsLive Sept2025 board, undersized 5’9″ but good EV, lefty, fast. Slight concerns on CF vs Corner. Some disagreement in the industry on rank; some have top 10, others further down.
AJ Gracia, OF (corner) UVA via duke: big corner-bopper bat profile, transferring to UVA from Duke with their new coach, starting to get top-5 buzz.
College Candidates who have fallen out of 1-1 contention
Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida; leading college Arm of the class. 6’5″ upper 90s. 2x Team USA pitcher. Up to #4 on BA’s list Oct2025, but #13 on MLBpipeline’s list.
Derek Curiel, OF, LSU: .345/.470/.519 as starting Freshman/lead off hitter in 2025, draft-eligible as Sophomore in 2026. Playing CF for LSU in 2026, should stay there as long/lanky 6’2 180 guy. power limited, but great hit tool.
Cameron Flukey, RHP Coastal Carolina. D1 3rd team AA 2025 as Soph, Fri starter for CCU CWS team. 2nd best arm in pitching-weak draft class.
Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M; 3B in the pros, 6’1″ some defensive questions but big bat.
Daniel Cuvet, 3B, Miami. D1-AA 2025 as Soph.
Evan Dempsey, 2-way FGCU: D1-AA 2025 as Soph.
Lucas Moore, OF, Louisville: D1-2nd team AA 2025 as Soph
High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1
Adams might force the team to make a tough non-tender decision this week. Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post)
The next stop on the off-season transaction bus is the “Non Tender Deadline,” by where players under club control (whether it be pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible) need to be offered contracts (tendered) by 11/21/25 or else they officially get cut-loose and become free agents. The players don’t have to SIGN said contracts, just be offered one.
Its the same and DFA’ing a guy, of which we’ve already done a ton of so far this off-season. In fact, technically every single pre-Arb player is a tender decision this week as well, though only the Arb-eligible guys are being analyzed here.
So, do we actually have any non-tender candidates on the roster at this point? Yeah we do.
Lets run through the arbitration-eligible players from high-to-low 2025 salary and make some guesses.
Like last year, we had 9 arb-eligible candidates to discuss heading into the off-season. The team DFA’d a couple of non-tender candidates early in Alfaro and Thompson, both of whom refused outright and are on the open market. Of the remaining seven, here’s some thoughts (they’re listed in order of 2025 salary):
Luis Garcia: $4.5M in 2025, projected for $7M in 2026 and still has a 4th Arb year thanks to just hitting the Super-2 cutoff. RJ Anderson at CBSsports listed Garcia as one of the 10 biggest non-tender decisions any team faces, and for good reason. $7M for what he gives us seems like a lot. He’s barely league average in OPS+, had a .289 OBP last year, gives us really, really bad defense (-17 DRS in 2025 … as a 2nd baseman?!), and has had “challenges” on the base paths and showing hustle. He’s probably more suited to play 1B … but you don’t put a guy with a .701 OPS figure at 1B. Another wrinkle: Garcia has zero options remaining, which doesn’t really mean that much since he’s clearly entrenched in the lineup, but it does remove any 26-man roster flexibility. However, if you cut Garcia, who are you replacing him with? Tena? Nunez? We have three guys at AA who could have stepped up in 2025 (Made, King, Wallace) and made a play for 2B, but all three need more minor league time. So, for me, for the time being I think he gets tendered and 2026 turns into his make or break season, unless the FO is committed to buying a replacement.
MacKenzie Gore: $2.89M in 2025, projected for $4.7M in 2026. I’m slightly surprised Gore’s projected arb salary is this low; ask yourself what he’d get on the open market, right now. He’s our most valuable trade chip, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him part of a big GM-meeting bonanza trade. The 2025 all star is a lock to be tendered.
Josiah Gray: $1.35M in 2025, projected for $1.35M again in 2026. Miss a year, pick right back up where you were. I guess Gray has no real recourse to demand more than $1.35M in salary after a year where he was paid that to basically recover from surgery. No real discussion here; obviously a 2nd or 3rd starter for $1.35M is a bargain, even if he ends up doing a 95 ERA+.
Riley Adams: $850k in 2025, projected for $1.5M in 2026. There’s certainly a lot of animosity amongst some readers here towards Adams and his 59 OPS+ given that we have Millas, and have had Millas, waiting in AAA for years. Certainly Adams did himself no favors when he couldn’t step up and take the catcher job upon Ruiz’ concussion issues last year. Instead, Millas came up and slugged to a 127 OPS+ figure before breaking his index finger in mid August, ending his 2025 season. However, the truth is that we can’t depend on Ruiz right now, and it seems short-sighted to cut one of the only 3 catchers you have on the 40-man roster and the next closest legitimate catching prospect is a 2024 draftee in Lomavita, even if he was decent in AA. If you cut Adams, you’re basically guaranteed to be shopping for a backup Catcher on the FA market, and can you get something better than Adams there? I think you tender him for insurance, and if you find a better insurance policy who you can option to AAA as needed, you cut him at that point.
CJ Abrams: $780k in 2025, projecting to $5.6M in 1st year of Arb. No surprise here; he basically had an identical year at the plate in 2025 as he had in 2024 when he was an All Star, only this year he didn’t manage to get himself sent home from school for misbehavior at season’s end. Like his double play partner Garcia, he’s awful defensively (-6 DRS, -11 total zone) with a slew of throwing errors, and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before he moves to 2B (though it may take a couple years, since all our best SS prospects are in Low-A). In the meantime, obviously you tender the guy.
Cade Cavalli: $760k in 2025, projecting to $1.3M in 2026 first year of arb. Hard to believe, but he’s already arbitration eligible. This is what happens when you let a guy do all his injury rehab on the60-day DL. As for tendering, no argument here; he’s going to be in the rotation, he’s a 1st rounder, and he’s a huge part of the future.
Jake Irvin. $774k in 2025, projecting to $3.3M in 2026. Ouch; $3.3M for one of the worst starters in the league? $3.3M projection seems high; how did Gore only get $2.89M in his first Arb year with far better 2024 numbers? I dunno; this seems like its a high projection. Nonetheless, some are calling this a clear non-tender. Ok sure, but what choice does the team have? Yes he had awful numbers, but he took the ball every 5 days and ate up the innings. His first two seasons in the Majors weren’t half bad: 92 ERA+ and in 2024 a 1.19 WHIP in 33 starts. One would think he could get back to that level of performance, which would be a bargain at $3.3M. Personally I think the team should eventually put him in the bullpen if he can’t get back to a 4th starter level, and would a $3M middle reliever be too much? Perhaps. But, if you non-tender the guy you’re telling me that one of these healthy current 40-man arms is taking his place: Lord, Williams, Lao, Eder. Not seeing it. Unless the new GM is planning on a big FA splash, but then the team still needs relievers. I’d tender him.
So, of the 7 guys:
Locks to tender: Gore, Gray, Abrams, Cavalli
No good reason not to tender right now: Garcia, Irvin
In jeopardy of being Non-Tendered: Adams
Conclusions: Honestly, for the arguments made above, I’d tender all seven right now, and if you can find a replacement for Adams or Irvin, so be it. I can’t see cutting loose all three of Garcia, Irvin, and Adams.
Post non-tender deadline update: On 5pm on 11/21, the Nats announced they tendered all seven candidates. So, nobody cut loose yet.
Post Publishing updates: corrected Josiah Gray’s name per JohnCcomment.;
