Nationals Arm Race

Lost in the CWS and draft content shuffle, we got an updated top 30 from Baseball America last week. We don’t get too many mid-season revampings of the top 30 Prospects, especially from some of the main pundits (who have lots of other stuff to cover mid-season, like draft scouting), but Baseball America has made it happen. So here’s their 6/6/25 updated Nats top 30.

This is worth a recap post, because there’s a huge amount of change and churn here. They haven’t just graduated a couple players and moved everyone else up a slot. They’ve really given some thought to moving players around, enough so that I’m going to list where they’re ranked now and where they were back in January.

Rank	Jan 25 Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	2	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
2	3	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
3	4	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	6	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
5	11	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
6	10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
7	7	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
8	5	King	Seaver	SS
9	8	Lomavita	Caleb	C
10	12	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
11	13	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
12	22	Morales	Yohandy	3B
13	15	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
14	40+	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
15	29	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
16	9	Wallace	Cayden	2B/3B
17	14	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
18	17	Cortesia	Brayan	SS
19	25	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
20	36	Kent	Jackson	LHP (Starter)
21	26	Hernandez	Daniel	C
22	19	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
23	40+	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
24	35	Tejada Jr.	Yoel	RHP (Reliever)
25	40+	Mota	Jorgelys	SS
26	16	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
27	40+	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
28	23	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
29	28	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
30	24	Cranz	Robert	RHP (Reliever)

So, lets get into it:

• Jan 2025’s #1 Crews has graduated, of course.
• 2-3-4 from January just moved up a spot each, making Sykora our #1 on their list. It’s the first time Sykora has officially been #1 on any list that I track or am aware of.
• Seaver King, despite being promoted recently takes a dip on their list, dropping from #5 to #8. Fair. He’s not had the glitzy pro debut we were hoping for.
• Dickerson gets a huge bump with his impressive pro debut, which has already resulted in a promotion.
• Lile gets credit for his excellent 2025 season, which has resulted in his graduation to the majors, and gets ranked at #6, the highest he’s been on any list either. He hasn’t been hitting necessarily awesome in his majors stint, but lots of players struggle in their debut.
• Morales, as we discussed ad naseum during the off-season, had been relatively unfairly dropped on a lot of lists for a hand injury that we know takes a while to come back from … well he’s back. He’s now in AAA, and BA jumped him 10 spots from January to June.
• Cole Henry! Outside BA’s top 40 six months ago, now he’s firmly in the MLB bullpen and listed at #14 here, one spot ahead of Lord, which … well, come on, who is more valuable to the MLB team? A guy who throws an inning every other day or a guy who has proven he can pitch in the rotation or in relief at the MLB level? Honestly, it won’t matter in a couple of months b/c both seem set to graduate from the prospect ranks soon anyway.
• Wallace gets dumped a slew of spots. Fair. He’s struggled this year and has done nothing to show any improvement or any push upwards.
• Bazzell only dropped a few spots: surprised he’s not penalized more for his slow pro start
• Jackson Kent gets due recognition for the solid start to his pro career in High-A.
• Riley Cornelio makes his debut on any prospect list anywhere, coming in at #23. After years of mediocre ERAs and stats, he’s put it together so far in 2025, and is now in AA.
• Yoel Tejeda, the FSU draftee from last year, is dealing in Low-A. The above table lists him as a Reliever initally, but he’s proven to be a solid starter so far in 2025. He may get a promotion to High-A at the mid-season at this rate.
• Davian Garcia is another Low-A 2024 starter who’s holding his own. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Tejeda, but the FGCU 6th rounder certainly has promise. Also as with Cornelio, this is first time on any prospect list.
• Pinckney and Green take understandable dips on the rankings. Though Pinckney is in AAA, he’s struggling. Green has been mysteriously non-transacted to XST, perhaps the team finally fed up with his 2K/game rate.
• Super reliever prospect Cranz, inexplicably ranked #24 in January, hangs on to the last spot at #30. I’m not sure why they dumped him so far: he’s got a .108 BAA so far as the closer in Low-A.

Highest guys on my ranking not to be mentioned here:

• Hurtado our big 2024 IFA bonus guy, still in DSL. Its early.
• Glove-first SS guys like Ramirez Jr., Made; still not really hitting.
• Armando Cruz, our big 2021 IFA bonus guy, struggling in Wilmington.
• Alvarez; may have been opening day starter in AAA but seems not to really be a prospect.
• Brzycky: BA had him #21 earlier this year and he’s been promoted; why dump him based on 11 MLB innings? He hasn’t graduated. I dunno.
• 4-A types like Baker, Nunez, Chapparo. I think BA thinks of them as spare parts as opposed to prospects.
• Millas: #18 in January, not out of the top 30. Interesting. I know theres plenty of people who think Millas is better than Adams who read this … he’s basically done nothing this year.
• Lastly, most of the guys in the BA 31-40 range from January are nowhere to be found on the new list; probably still treading water in that range on their internal lists.

We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field. Here’s a recap of the supers.

Resource links to help with this:

• Top 25 rankings d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com and an easier-to-read bracket.

First, lets recap the Supers.

• Louisville vs Miami: Louisville dominated visiting Miami (note: I thought Miami would get the host) 8-1 in a game where all the scoring happened in the first few innings. Miami took back game two to force the tie-breaker game Sunday. In game three, Louisville clawed back to take a close 3-2 win and advance.
• #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State: FSU let one get away in game one, giving up 3 runs in the ninth to send the game to extras, then watching an RBI single allow OSU to walk them off. Brutal. FSU turned around to win game 2 and force the decider. In the final, both teams ran out of pitching and played to an old-school pre-BBCOR aluminum game score of 14-10 as OSU advances.
• #5 UNC v Arizona: UNC Destroyed AZ in game one 18-2. AZ fought back to win game two in a slugfest to force the 3rd game. In the final, Arizona shocked the national seed and top ranked UNC with three runs in the 8th inning to steal a 4-3 win and to claim the CWS spot.
• #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina: Coastal Carolina shocked Auburn in game one, edging them with a run in the 10th to win in extras. They followed it up with a 4-1 game two win to be the first team to punch their ticket to the CWS and to prove naysayers wrong.
• #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee; Arkansas got a close game 1 win 4-3, got to Doyle easily in game two and cruise into the CWS.
• #6 LSU v West Virginia: LSU battered their way to a game 1 win 16-9 and was never troubled in game two to advance easily.
• Duke v Murray State: Host Duke opened with a win, taming Murray State’s bats 7-4. Murray State got back to bashing in game two, winning 19-9 and force a Monday finish. There, Murray State persevered, even with a crazy overturned call at the end that forced them to win twice, to advance as a #4 seed, a rarity in the college game.
• UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA: UCLA won 5-2 in the first, then blanked UTSA in the second to move on.

Super Regional Predictions versus Actuals

• predicted Miami, FSU, UNC, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UTSA
• actuals: Louisville, OSU, Arizona, CCU, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UCLA

My predictions were awful: I went just 3 for 8 after going 8-for-8 last year in the supers.

Stats/Observations of the 8 Super Regionals.

• 5 out of 8 Super Regional Hosts to advance.
• 4 regionals went to the 3rd/deciding game.
• Conference Breakdown of the eight Advancers: 2 SEC, 1 ACC, 1 Big10, 1 Big12, 1 Independent, 1 Sun Belt, and 1 MVC. wow. What great distribution. If we were playing by the old rules … there’d be three Pac12 teams here.
• Murray State to the CWS as a #4 regional seed is super rare: it’s only happened three other times since the CWS expanded to 64 teams in 1999.  Fresno State (2008, who frigging won the CWS), Stony Brook (2012), and most recently, Oral Roberts (2023).

So, your 2024 CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):

• Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Louisville, Coastal Carolina, Arizona, #8 Oregon State
• Group 2 (2,3,6,7): #15 UCLA, #3 Arkansas, #6 LSU, Murray State

So, we have a pretty lopsided CWS field. Group 1 features just one national seed in OSU, while group two features three National seeds plus the crazy Cinderella Murray State.

RPIs of the CWS field: Here’s the Live/updated RPI of the field, plus the pre-CWS tournament RPI for those teams who were seeds.

• Arkansas: #1 (started #5)
• Coastal Carolina #3 (Started #8)
• Oregon State: #5 (started #7)
• UCLA #9 (started #15)
• LSU #11 (started #10)
• Arizona #19
• Louisville #29
• Murray State: #53

CCU was pretty underseeded going into the tourney and probably should have been a top 8 seed, and now they’re vindicated with a live RPI of #3, making them the favorite in the group 1.

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Performance of 1st Round projected players in the Super Regionals:

I’ll summarize the performance of the few 1-1 candidates we care about in my “check-in” post coming soon.

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My CWS Predictions

Top half: I think it comes down to Coastal versus Oregon State, with Oregon State heading to final.

Bottom Half: Hard not to go with an all SEC final here, with things setup for the SEC teams to be on opposite sides of the group. LSU beat Arkansas at home in a series in early May, but on a neutral field I sense Arkansas bashes their way forward. LSU only has one Kade Anderson.

Final: Arkansas over OSU

Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

• Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
• Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
• ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
• Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
• MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
• MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

• Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
• Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
• Baseball-Reference College Home Page
• NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Conference tournament Central

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

• MLBpipeline 5/29/25, expanded top 200 Draft Board. 5/29/25
• Baseball America top 500 updated 5/28/25.
• Keith Law Top 100 Big Board 5/22/25

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLB (#4), BA (#5), PL (#1)
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLB (#6), BA (#4), PL (#7)
• Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#8), PL (#10+)
• Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#3), BA (#6), PL (#10+)

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

• Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLB (#1), BA (#1), ProspectsLive (#4)
• Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLB (#2), BA (#2), ProspectsLive (#2)
• Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb HS (OK). MLB (#5), BA (#3), ProspectsLive (#9)

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Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

• Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
• Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
• Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
• Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.

Prep kids:

• Holliday: season complete.
• Hernandez: season complete.
• Willits: season complete.

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The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.

So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Here’s the two month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All stats as of 6/1/25. I dove a bit deeper into any starter in my 6/1 rotation check in, but i’ll repeat some of the info here. Note: all stats were as of 6/1 and I know some stuff has happened since so i’ll add in last three days updates.

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): was slashing just .167/.308/.352 in May to lower his already poor seasonal numbers when he tweaked something in his left side and hit the DL with an oblique injury. This is the kind of injury that can derail a season. So much for that Rookie of the Year hopes. How concerned should we be long-term? I really was hoping for him to hit the ground running and he just hasn’t. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): off the DL, inexplicably started in low-A, so far unhittable in High-A too. He’s now 21, so its time to get him out of A-Ball. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Continuing to hit in AAA; .284/.339/.500 slash line for May. Would like to see abit more OBP, but he’s definitely starting to get the team to ask questions about the sh*t-show they’re throwing out at 3B in the majors. Temperature: hotter.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Hit the DL with a “grade 1 UCL strain.” Which in Nats parlance probably means two months off, an attempted start, and TJ surgery. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. King has been improving. His May slash line: .291/.321/.408. Not bad. Still not where we’d like to see him based on the performance of some players we passed up to take him. All that said, just after we wrote this we learned he’s reportedly being promoted to AA (perhaps by the time you read this). Mentioned in the comments is a reminder of how hard it is to hit in Wilmington. Here’s King’s home/road splits so far in 2025: home: .214/.275/.286. Road: 305/.337/.463. Ok, well that’s pretty clear. Maybe we need to keep reminding ourselves not to judge Wilmington hitters too harshly, again. Temperature: warming a bit

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: Earned a promotion to AAA. .326/.396/.463 in May. That’s awesome. Maybe he continues to mash in AAA and lets the Nats sunset our ridiculous .150-hitting DH Josh Bell. Temperature: pretty warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. He had a marginally better May than April, but still only hit .212 for the month. That’s not good enough for a top-10 prospect, nor is it one that’s going to push for a promotion. He continues to split time between 2B and 3B, though honestly after watching him earlier this spring he seems like a 2B longer term. Which is good, if House turns out to have a years-long lock on the position. Temperature: still cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): he’s back, he’s embarrassing hitters in AAA ( 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP) and I think we see him in the majors inside of a month. hallelujah! Temperature: Warming fast.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s starting to heat up. 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks in May. You’re not going to keep a starter with a 1.59 ERA in the league for long. Temperature: heating up.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Really started to hit the ball in AAA in May (.330./.356/.500), then got a callup to cover for the injured Young and has held his own in his MLB debut so far: .268/.268/.351). Can’t ask for much more there. Lots of naysayers are eating crow on him right now. Oh, and man he’s fast. Temperature: hot

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Continuing his solid pro debut; his average and OBP dipped in May, but his power spiked up. Remember, he’s a catcher; if he can mainitain a .800 OPS figure and have plus defense, we’ll be ecstatic. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: quickly got promoted out of the FCL and is now hitting well in Low-A: .293/.403/.466 so far playing exclusively SS for Fredericksburg. Great debut so far. I’m so cynical on prep kids that we draft not working out … that i’m shocked he’s this good this quick. Temperature: Red Hot.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): He hit the DL in late April and spent the entire month of May there. I have no idea what the injury is, nor is he appearing on the Nats official injury report. Temperature: cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): My last-month worries about a TJ are gone: he’s made four rehab starts and has dominated in them. As he should, as someone who solved AA last year and who needs to be in AAA. Great news that he’ll be back soon. Postwriting; he’s been taken off DL and optioned to AA for the time being. Hopefully not there for long. Temperature: hope to warm up soon.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): His hot hitting continued in AAA after his promotion last month, which earned him a MLB call up, where he’s been covering for the Young/Crews injuries for weeks now. He’s not lighting MLB on fire, but he’s 22 in the majors. All due credit. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: after hitting .115 in April, he’s improved a bunch; he hit .245 in May. Still not the .280/.380/.450 slash line i’d like to see out of a college slugger. Definitely a disappointing debut. Temperature: cool

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th. Uh oh. Would love to know what is going on here, if anyone has intel. Temperature: very cold.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): continues to be a multi-role pitcher in the MLB pen and he’s holding firm with a 95 ERA+ for the year. Temperature: red hot for the development, decently warm for production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season and is cruising so far: .333/.420/.467 in a month in Florida. That’s great to see. Temperature: hot

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): holding steady with mediocre slash lines playing RF for AAA. He’s officially been passed on the OF depth chart by both Hassell and Lile, and the next time they need an OF call-up it might not be Pinckney even then. Temperature: cold

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

• #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) saw his AAA numbers fall. I feel like, when the time comes for a real prospect to rise and needs a AAA spot, he may soon be in trouble. Right now there’s three AAA starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara) and all three are “better” prospects than Alvaraz, as much as I like him. Maybe he can find a home in the bullpen, especially as a lefty.
• #31 Andres Chapparo 1B has been optioned to AAA post injury stint thanks to a squeeze on the MLB roster; he’s still a “prospect” and has been (unsurprisingly) tearing up AAA. If Rizzo parts ways with millions of dollars of unproducing relievers, what’s to stop him from parting ways with millions of dollars of unproducing DHs (Josh Bell)?
• #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has stepped back for the MLB bullpen, but has been a better option than the three veterans they’ve now released (Sims, Poche, Lopez).

In AA:

• #36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has become one of the best relievers in the MLB bullpen. Can’t say i saw this coming.
• #41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has been shelled in AAA and isn’t anywhere close to knocking on the door.
• #47 Phillip Glasser SS has cooled from his hot start.
• #50 Max Romero C is making the team forget about its younger Catching depth with a .339/.386/.519 May in AA.
• #75 Seth Shuman RHP earned a promotion to AAA, where he’s struggling to hold onto it.

In High-A:

• #23 Elijah Green has been unofficially demoted to rookie ball in an undocumented move probably meant to not embarrass him. He has no official ABs since May 17th.
• #26 Jackson Kent continues to pitch well and won’t be a #26 prospect for long.
• #27 Armando Cruz continues to struggle at the plate.
• #51 Brenner Cox had the lowest OPS for Wilmington for the month at just .387.

In Low-A:

• #21 Christhian Vaquero is not really improving at the plate.
• #42 Robert Cranz had a solid month; 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Still would like to see him in the rotation.
• #43 Randal Diaz only hit .194 for the month.

In FCL:

• #44 Jose Feliz, a 23IFA RHP has been FCL’s best starter so far: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA.
• #45 Dashyll Tejeda, also a 23IFA and with Feliz the two best players out of that class so far, has started out hot: .300/.488/.367 with his move stateside.
• #72 Sir Jamison Jones: slow out of the gate at .214 for the month.

The busiest weekend in College Baseball has past; here’s a run down of the opening weekend of the College Baseball playoffs.

Resource links to help with this:

• top 25 rankings d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com and an easier-to-read bracket.

Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup. that means, the pairs of regionals being reviewed (#1 Vanderbilt regional and #16 Southern Miss regional) will determine that Super Regional. The eventual winning team is bolded.

• #1 Vanderbilt Regional Recap: Vanderbilt failed to advance to the Super Regionals as the #1 overall seed for the 2nd time in recent memory (they were #1 overall seed with David Price as their ace and also fell at a home regional), losing twice to Louisville to go home early.
• #16 Southern Miss Regional Recap: host Southern Miss inexplicably lost to Ivy League champ Columbia to open the regional, got back to the final and even forced an extra game, but the strain on their resources was too much as they fell to Miami.
• #8 Oregon State Regional Recap: Oregon State got upended in game one by a #4 seed in St. Marys, but clawed their way back, crushed St. Marys 20-3 in the loser’s bracket, then beat USC twice to advance. Phew.
• #9 Florida State Regional Recap: Florida State advanced in a relatively straight-forward regional, cruising past eventual regional finalist Mississippi State twice, once behind top-5 pick Arnold’s 7ip effort.
• #5 UNC Regional Recap: North Carolina got stretched to an extra game but persevered versus Oklahoma to move on.
• #12: Oregon Regional Recap: Host Oregon went 2-and-out to finish last as the seed and host, while Arizona beat Cal Poly twice to win the regional and advance. Props to Utah Valley for the win as the #4 seed.
• #13 Coastal Carolina Regional Recap: ECU ousted Florida, but Coasal Carolina beat them twice to win the region and advance as one of the few mid-majors remaining.
• #4 Auburn Regional Recap: Host Auburn beat all three teams in its region to advance, crushing NC State 11-1 in the regional final.

And, the eventual CWS Bottom Half:

• #3 Arkansas Regional Recap: Arkansas handled Big East’s Creighton twice to advance with ease.
• #14 Tennessee Regional Recap: Tennessee got stretched by Wake Forest to an extra game but moved on, as 1-1 draft candidate finished off the finale to the horror of the GMs drafting in that range.
• #11 Clemson Regional Recap: West Virginia came out on top of a crazy regional that saw host Clemson get whacked by last-team-in Kentucky before WVU topped the SEC team in a wile 16-15 regional final.
• #6 LSU Regional Recap: Arkansas-Little Rock as a #4 seed gave LSU everything they could handle, but the Tigers advanced to get another super regional.
• #7 Georgia Regional Recap: Everything started great for Georgia, then it fell apart; they lost the winner’s bracket game to Duke, then couldn’t even get back to the regional final, losing to Oklahoma State, to finish 3rd as a national top-8 seed. Not a good look. Duke took out OkState to win the regional.
• #10 Ole Miss Regional Recap: holy cow, how about #4 regional seed Murray State?! Beat the hosts 9-6 to open, then score 13, 19, and 12 against SEC and ACC royalty to win the regional and move on. Bravo!
• #15 UCLA Regional Recap: UCLA won an offense-first regional by beating all three teams to advance.
• #2 Texas Regional Recap: UT-San Antonio shocked the field with two wins over #2 overall seed Texas to win the region and move on.

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Thus, your Super Regionals are ...

• Louisville vs Miami
• #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State
• #5 UNC v Arizona
• #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina
• #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee
• #6 LSU v West Virginia
• Duke v Murray State
• UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA

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Stats/Observations of the 16 regionals.

• 9 out of 16: Seeds/Hosts to advance. Three of the top 8 seeds are out, including #1 Vandy, #2 Texas, and #7 Ole Miss.
• 6 regionals went to Monday extra game; lots of close regionals this year.
• Conference Breakdown of the 16 advancers: ACC 5, SEC 4, Big12 2, Big10 1, others 4.
• Seed breakdown of advances: #1 seeds/hosts – 9. #2 Seeds: 5. #3 seeds: 1 (Miami). #4 Seeds: 1 (Murray State).

Comments

• How about the ACC? 9 teams in, 5 going to supers. Versus SEC: 13 teams in, just 4 moving on.
• Murray State; holy cow. Usually we’re ecstatic to talk about a #4 seed getting a win, not moving on.
• UT-San Antonio; a #2 seed who took out a power house.

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Performance of 1st Round projected players in the Regionals:

(we’ll put this content into our 1-1 candidate review post, coming out later this week)

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Super Regional predictions: Here’s what i think happens when these Regional champs meetup next weekend:

• Louisville vs Miami: two teams with .500 records in ACC conference play are now going to give the CWS a representative from between them. I would guess Miami gets to host based on pedigree. These teams didn’t meet at all this year so no history. Prediction: Miami had a slightly harder SoS and may have a slight advantage here.
• #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State: I’m going FSU just based on having a better arm to throw game 1. FSU faced a better slate of teams all year.
• #5 UNC v Arizona: hard to pick against UNC in this position. I think these former Pac12 teams are overrated generally.
• #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina: Auburn will outclass the mid-major former CWS champ here.
• #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee: They played late in the season, at Arkansas; Tennessee won the first game, then lost the 2nd when Doyle pitched (Arkansas lit him up for 11 hits and 8 runs). I think Arkansas repeats the feat and moves on. If they can get to Doyle that easily, they’ll be tough to beat.
• #6 LSU v West Virginia; with all due respect to WVU, LSU isn’t going to lose at home with a top 5 pick throwing one of the games.
• Duke v Murray State: Murray State played, nobody, I mean, nobody this year; SoS #222. But they showed up in the Regional and I’ll bet they show up again. Murray State to CWS!
• UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA: UTSA is big-time. Top 20 RPI, 8-4 record against Q1. I think they’re going to beat UCLA.

CWS field: Miami, FSU, UNC, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UTSA

We’re two months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important links for this analysis:

• Big Board
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
• AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
• AA Harrisburg stats
• High-A Wilmington stats
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
• FCL Nationals Stats
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats (not yet started for 2025)

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
• End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
• End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)

Changes since end of last Month: Soroka came off D/L, sent Lord back to the bullpen.

Rotation Observations: We have an ace (Gore), we have a #4 starter (Irvin), and we have three guys pitching their way out of the rotation (Parker, Williams, Soroka). Soroka gets a pass b/c he’s guaranteed $8M. Williams gets a pass (for now) because he’s guaranteed even more. Parker Is just looking hittable right now. His best start in the last month was a 5.1 IP 3run effort against Atlanta; otherwise every one of his outings is a bunch of runs year, fail to get out of the 5th, tax the bullpen, etc. Every time Cavalli looks unhittable in AAA, Parker is one step closer to a demotion.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Parker, as per above.

Bullpen comments: The team just cut ties with Lopez ($3M off-season signing) after jettisoning Sims ($3M) and Poche ($1.4M) earlier in the month. All money well spent. I think its safe to say Rizzo’s “throw money at a bunch of FA relievers” strategy for the 2025 bullpen has officially failed. On the bright side Finnegan has looked solid, Henry has been amazing, and five of the eight bullpen arms are home grown. Finally.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
• End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
• End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson

Changes since end of last month: Lara hit the D/L, and basically saw his starts picked up by Cavalli and then eventually MLFA signing Sampson. Cavalli ended his rehab stint and was optioned.

Rotation Observations: Alvarez, Shuman, and Sampson all had a full month in the rotation, and were all mediocre to bad. ERAs in the 5-6s, Whips in the 1.5 range. Solesky has improved from last month and has earned himself another month in the AAA rotation. Cavalli’s back; in 4 May starts as he builds up arm strength going about 4IP each, he’s got 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP. Once he’s stretched out someone’s making way in the majors. They now have 3 starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara), all of whom would be preferred to most of this crew.

Next guy to get Promoted: Cavalli as per above.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sampson; he’s a 33yr old MLFA who will either push for a MLB promotion or exercise whatever opt-out is inevitably in his contract.

Bullpen comments: There’s just nobody in the AAA bullpen right now pushing for a promotion; they’ve moved up Rutledge, Henry, and Brzycky at this point and they seem to have exhausted internal options for fixing the MLB bullpen.

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
• End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
• End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)

Changes since end of last month: The biggest news of the month is Susana going down with a Grade 1 UCL sprain. Grade 1 is supposed to be mild, with “microscopic tears” or a “slight stretch.” We’ll have to see what happens next. Susana and Soroka’s rehab starts have been replaced with the promoted Cornelio and the MLFA signing Conley (with rubber-armed Gomez doing a slew of spot starts/openers).

Rotation Observations: the AA rotation looks solid. Choi had a great month: 1.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP. Maybe he’s got the confidence to return to AAA. Luckham has been solid but not as dominant in the K/9 range. Cornelio’s rise to AA has been merited and he’s holding his own so far, to my surprise after complaining about him for years. Conley, a 30yr old signed from a Mexican team, hasn’t been bad. The only guy still struggling in Saenz, same as last month.

Next guy to get Promoted: Choi.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz

Bullpen comments: Powell didn’t give up a run last month. Peterson was excellent and got promoted mid-month. Cuevas has really shined since moving to the pen. Davila remains too old for AA and needs to get moved to AAA. Maybe our MLB bullpen solutions are actually a bunch of guys dealing in AA right now.

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
• End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
• End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts

Changes since end of last month: Cornelio moved up, and the team have a slew of guys spot starts: 10 different players got a start in May for this team while they waited for Sykora and some stability.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey had a great month; 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks. If he can get his walks down he may be a 19yr old in AA. Stuart’s rehab has gone well; he may force a bump in AAA soon. Kent has been solid, if a little unlucky. Sykora’s High-A debut has been laughably good: 2 starts, 8IP, 15Ks, 2 hits. Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th; uh-oh. Sthele was the worst full-time starter, though some of their SS/LR types (Arias and Caceres) were awful.

Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. There’s zero use of having a guy with a 16 K/9 rate stay in a-ball for any longer than he needs to. Clemmey after that; i don’t care how young he is.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele

Bullpen comments; Amaral had a nice month. Not much else to report; when most of your best WHIPs belong to starters, it tells you your pen needs work.

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Low-A/Fredericksburg

• Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
• End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
• End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett, Sykora

Changes since end of last month: Again, none really. A couple of these guys had their starts pushed or did tandem starts to give bigger names a couple of starts, but the Low-A rotation remains basically the same from opening day.

Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Polanco looking good. Solid months, ERAs in the 3s, good K/BB rates. Polanco looked the best in terms of keeping runners off base. Garcia had a nice ERA but had 17 walks in 25IP; that’s got to improve. Meckley had more walks than Ks and had his turn skipped at the last day of the month, so maybe something’s there. Roman was the real struggle for the month, with an ERA nearly 9.

Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco, as he was last month.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month.

Bullpen comments: Last month’s highlights have all been promoted: Bloebaum, Amaral, Mejia. Good for the team to push these guys and not was their bullets in low-A. Cranz (finally) had a good month: 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Bruni had 22Ks and 11 walks in 11 innings; interesting.—

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FCL/Rookie

• Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
• End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar

Changes since end of last month: This is the first month of the FCL; no real major changes occurred in the first month other than to see a bunch of rehabbers return home.

Rotation Observations: At the end of last year, the rotation was Sanchez, Romero, Colon, Portorreal, and Moreno. Sanchez went straight to Low-A’s full season DL, Romero is on the Low-A DL but doing rehab starts in FCL, Moreno is still in FCL but hasn’t pitched an inning since 2023, and Colon is in the FCL bullpen putting up a 12 ERA so far, so only Portorreal returns.

So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run.

Next guy to get Promoted: Johnson.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. He’s 22 and can’t find the plate. Put him in the pen and give one of these over-performing relievers a shot.

Bullpen comments: We talked about Johnson; Kane (a 23-yr old MLFA) needs to move up for the challenge as well; zero runs allowed during May.

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That’s it for May 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2025 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.

First off, some resources for you.

• Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• Local teams in the rankings: it’s a really down year for area college: there’s not one Virginia team anywhere near the top 25 this year. In fact, there’s not a single VOTE for a DC/MD/VA college team in the final USA Today poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

1. Vanderbilt (42-16): RPI #1, SoS #2
2. Texas (42-12): RPI #4, SoS #19
3. Arkansas (43-13): RPI #5, SoS #14
4. Auburn (38-18): RPI #3, SoS #1
5. North Carolina (42-12): #6 RPI, #23 SoS
6. LSU (43-14): #10 RPI, #36 SoS
7. Georgia (42-15): #2 RPI, #4 SoS
8. Oregon State (41-12-1): #7 RPI, #42 SoS

There’s definitely some interesting stuff to digest here. Vanderbilt finished 4th in the SEC regular season but won the post-season title, which vaulted them above Texas for #1. They’ve been RPI #1 for a bit, so no surprise here. Texas won the SEC regular season title by two games over Arkansas, who gets the #3 national seed. UNC finished 3rd in the ACC regular season but won the ACC title, likely cementing their slot as a top 8 seed. Interestingly Georgia Tech was the ACC regular season winner but didn’t even get a hosting spot. LSU sneaks into a regional spot at the expense of #8 RPI Coastal Carolina, likely a nod to the amazing atmosphere at LSU’s home stadium. Lastly the orphaned Oregon State team more than earned its #7 seed with its barnstorming season. There’s no easy outs amongst the top 8 seeds.

The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:

• #9 Florida State (38-14) : #14 RPI, #24 SoS
• #10 Ole Miss (40-19): #12 RPI, #5 SoS
• #11 Clemson (44-16): #9 RPI, #16 SoS
• #12 Oregon (42-14): #16 RPI, #35 SoS
• #13 Coastal Carolina (48-11): #8 RPI, #66 SoS
• #14 Tennessee (43-16): #11 RPI, #12 SoS
• #15 UCLA (42-16): #15 RPI, #22 SoS
• #16 Southern Miss (44-14): #19 RPI, #67 SoS

Unlike 2024, there’s no real hosting shocks here. Oregon remains a host despite losing early in the Big 10 conference tournament. Ole Miss made a huge run to the SEC tourney final and will be a tough out. Alabama ends up being the highest RPI team to not host (#13), likely due to an early exit in the SEC tournament and a 16-14 league record.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

None. Last year there were three Virginia teams in the field of 64, including UVA as a national seed. This year, not so much. West Virginia is in, along with nearby Carolina schools like ECU and Coastal Carolina that sometimes recruit in the state. This year, nothing.

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Quick Regional Thoughts

Here’s one sentence or so on each regional

1. Vanderbilt (42-16): The #1 seeds get a super easy regional with their #2 as RPI #32 Louisville. No upsets here, but Louisville has a big-time arm that could throw a monkey wrench into the plans.
2. Texas (42-12) gets a really easy regional, with three mid-majors and no real threats.
3. Arkansas (43-13) gets the Big East champ Creighton as a #3 seed, a bit troubling, but may not even see them. Their #2 seed is Kansas, not exactly a baseball powerhouse this year.
4. Auburn (38-18): gets NC state as their 2nd seed, and gets Stetson, who got into the tournament in controversial fashion when their conference tournament got rained out.
5. North Carolina (42-12) was not done any favors by the committee, getting #2 Oklahoma and the big10 tourney champs Nebraska as a #3. Ouch.
6. LSU (43-14) will have Dallas Baptist to contend with (#20 RPI), but otherwise has an easy draw.
7. Georgia (42-15) gets two storied programs in Duke and Oklahoma State, but both programs struggled this year against Quadrant-1 schools.
8. Oregon State (41-12-1) has a pretty manageable regional that includes TCU and USC in down years.
9. Florida State (38-14) gets the team with the best record in the land in Northeastern (48-9 with a 25-2 in-confernece record), but they have almost no Q1 experience.
10. Ole Miss (40-19) comes in red-hot, having made the SEC tourney final. For their troubles they get ACC regular season champ Georgia Tech, but being hosts will make the difference here.
11. Clemson (44-16) struggled at season’s end and has a tricky regional that includes West Virginia and the controversial Kentucky, who squeaked into this draw as the last of 13 SEC teams in the tourney.
12. Oregon (42-14): Upset watch here: Oregon has two tough teams in Arizona and Cal Poly to contend with.
13. Coastal Carolina (48-11): They’ll have to prove their lofty RPI here; they have to deal with Florida. Florida is certainly battle tested: 28 of their 58 games were against Q1 schools.
14. Tennessee (43-16): probably saves their Ace for Wake Forest in game two and should cruise in a relatively easy regional.
15. UCLA (42-16): gets three other West Coast teams, any of whom seem to be possible to win here. UC Irvine, Arizona State, and Fresno State all have major college baseball pedigree, and California college baseball is just different.
16. Southern Miss (44-14); the mid-major has to contend with both Alabama, who arguably should have had a host, AND Miami. Ouch.

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Prospect Watch. We’ve talked the top guys to death, but here’s where they’re playing. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:

D1baseball.com’s Prospect Watch post is here as well.

CBS sports RJ Anderson had top 10 prospects to watch post as well.

1. Vanderbilt Regional: Vandy could have to contend with Supp-1st projected Alabama ace Patrick Forbes in game 2 of their regional.
2. Texas Regional: Texas’ speedy OF Max Belyeu is a late 1st round projection.
3. Arkansas Regional: their transfer SS Wehiwa Aloy projects as back of 1st round now, and they have a big left in Zach Root who’s a supp-1st rounder projection.
4. Auburn Regional: their big hitter is Ike Irish a C/OF type.
5. North Carolina Regional: UNC’s catcher Luke Stevenson projects as a late 1st rounder. Oklahoma’s ace Kyson Witherspoon could face UNC in game 2.
6. LSU Regional: left ace Kade Anderson will lead the way for LSU.
7. Georgia Regional: Georgia is really a team effort; they only have one top 200 projected draft player in OF/1B Tre Phelps
8. Oregon State Regional: top-5 projected pick Aiva Arquette stars for OSU.
9. Florida State Regional: FSU’s ace Jamie Arnold likely goes game 2.
10. Ole Miss Regional: Ole Miss’ big arm is Mason Morris, a likely 3rd rounder.
11. Clemson Regional: their leading hitter Cam Cannarella was on upper 1st round watch early, but has faded.
12. Oregon Regional: Arizona’s leading hitter Brendan Summerhill leads their attack.
13. Coastal Carolina Regional: Their leading prospect is C Caden Bodine, who has seen his star really fade this season.
14. Tennessee Regional: top-5 projected Liam Doyle will have scouts out for sure. Tennessee also has mid-1st rounder Gavin Kilen and supp-1st round Andrew Fischer in the lineup. Wake’s Marek Houston has top-5 buzz and would be a great matchup when Doyle pitches. Wake also has late 1st rounder Ethan Conrad in the OF.
15. UCLA Regional: there’s a slew of 3rd and 4th rounders amongst all the teams here, typical for a California-heavy regional.
16. Southern Miss Regional: Southern Miss is led by ace RHP JB Middleton, a late 1st round projection. He could face off in game 2 against Alabama’s Riley Quick, a Fastball/Slider guy who also projects in the same range.

Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:

• TAMU and Jace LaViolette, projected 1-1 to begin the year, now a mid-1st rounder.
• UC Santa Barbara and Tyler Bremner: how his stock has fallen this year.
• Indiana and Devin Taylor got a couple of shout outs, but he’s pushed back to end of 1st round.

We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

• MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
• Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
• Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
• ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

• Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
• Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
• Baseball-Reference College Home Page
• NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
• MLBpipeline top 150 updated 4/29/25
• Baseball America top 400 updated 4/30/25

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLB (#3), BA (#1), PL (#1)
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLB (#5), BA (#4), PL (#7)
• Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+)
• Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+)

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

• Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLB (#1), BA (#2), ProspectsLive (#4)
• Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLB (#2), BA (#3), ProspectsLive (#2)
• Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb HS (OK). MLB (#4), BA (#6), ProspectsLive (#9)

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

• Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25)
• Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)
• Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38)
• Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24)
• Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13)
• Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), PL (#10)
• Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. BA (#7), PL (#10+)
• Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3)
• Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma. Only here b/c Law had him in a top-5 mock.
• Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLB (#7), BA (#5), PL (#5)

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Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

• Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
• Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
• LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
• Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
• Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

• Holliday
• Hernandez
• Willits

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The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

• Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
• Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
• Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
• St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Filed away in the general category of, “providing a solution to a problem that didn’t exist before yesterday,” for reasons inexplicable yesterday the MLB commissioner announced that all players who are on the “permanently ineligible” list will exit said list upon death, and thus be eligible for consideration for the Hall of Fame by one of the various selection committees in place.

Since I write a baseball blog, I’ll put in my 2 cents for the record, and it kinda goes like this:

“While I have an opinion, that I’m about to state, this is not really the hill upon which I will choose to die. If you disagree with my take, i’m not gonna argue that you’re wrong and I’m right or vice versa.”

One of the dirty little secrets of every single Hall of Fame argument, whether its about Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson, or about the litany of PED-associated players (Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Clemens, A-Rod, Manny) is this: when you actually visit the Cooperstown museum and walk around it … guess what? ALL of these guys have memorabilia scattered amongst the exhibits, they have their pictures and stories and gear memorializing their play. So, like it or not, these guys are “in” the Hall of Fame already. They just don’t have their bronze bust hanging on the walls of the well-lit corridor at the end of the tour.

Is it amazingly important to withhold the creation of these bronze plaques in order to penalize players for past actions? For many, yes. For whiny, self-important BBWAA sports writers, apparently so. For me? Meh. I’m absolutely not someone who will gaslight you and claim that Jackson didn’t throw the 1919 series by quoting his slash line from the series (because I’ve played the game and absolutely know you can “throw” your ABs in key spots to help lose a game), and I’m not going to make some ridiculous argument that because MLB now partners with Fanduel that Rose’s betting transgressions should be expunged like a Catholic who ate meat on Fridays in the 1960s before the Pope said it was ok.

I’m on record supporting PED-players “for the hall” because … well they’re amongst the best who ever played, and what’s the point of a museum honoring the best who ever played if they’re not actually recognized?? I suppose you can make the same claim for Rose and Jackson, despite what they did. You have to ask yourself: is the purpose of that hall of plaques to be a museum or to be a political statement?

If it was me, I’d select them all and write it in clear text what they did and why they’re controversal. That’ll solve the problem in an instant. Here’s how i’d write Roses’ right now:

“Pete Rose is the all time MLB hits leader [of players who didn’t start their careers in Japan, ahem Ichiro Suzuki], won the ROY and an MVP, and was famous for his tough-nosed playing style, which earned him the nickname “Charlie Hustle.” He also was banned for life when found to have bet on baseball games while managing the Cincinnati Reds and refused to accept responsibility for his involvement for decades, dying while serving a lifetime ban from the sport.”

And then i’d go on with my life, because we spend an awful lot of time arguing about this stuff for what it really is: a dinky museum in upstate NY that’s super hard to get to and which most of us will never see.

Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.

I published my Nats Prospect Rankings back in March, and the xls is here online. I have not updated it since, though we have had some movement (Crews graduated, Reifert returned, Garcia released). I’ll use my rankings as a guide to review players here. I’ll use a quick “hot or not” grading system for their start to the 2025 season.

Here’s my top 20 and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked above 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25, the day I wrote this. I realize that today 5/6 some of the below has already changed …

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): had a brutal start to the season (getting one hit in his first 7 games) and is clawing his way out. Slash line sits at .212/.241/.356. He is projecting for a 20/20 season believe it or not, but he’s not impressing the ROY voters so far. His big concern right now is that he’s not walking, at all. He has just 3 walks on the year against 31 whiffs. Temperature: cold, but warming up.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): on the low-A DL, recovering from off-season hip surgery. Not considered a major injury, should debut in High-A mid-season. The team initially said he’d be out until at least May. Temperature: TBD.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Cruising in AAA. .292/.356/.500 slash line for the month. This is drastically improved over last year’s AAA line of .250/.280/.375. Another month of this and the current Nats 3B solution of Rosario/Tena may be replaced. Temperature: hot.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. You can’t ask for much more from a 21yr old in AA. Temperature: warm.

# 5 Seaver King SS. No easy way to say this: King is struggling in High-a. .233/.300/.356. 27 Ks in 19 games. I was hoping for more from his debut. Temperature: cold

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: .246/.306/.491 in AA, which is up and down a bit from his AA line last year. He’s showing more power, but less patience (just 4 walks this month). Playing mostly 1B now, so the power is nice. Temperature: luke warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. .202/.250/.333. Has been playing mostly 3B but has some 2B starts filled in, a position he may have to grow more accustomed to given House’s performance ahead of him. Maybe its the fact that the Texas League has a bunch of hitter’s parks but Wallace has yet to really produce in the Eastern League. Temperature: cold

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): has now made rehab starts in three levels, and sits in Rochester. As discussed in my April check-in, there’s a ready made spot in the rotation right now for him, when he’s ready to go. It’s hard to gauge where he is based on him blowing away A-ball hitters, so we’ll have to see how he looks in the majors. Temperature: TBD.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s struggling with control so far in his High-A debut. 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Of course, he’s 19 in high-A. So no notes really. Temperature: holding steady.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): .240/.296/.280 in AAA. He has little power and no walks. With a full MLB outfield, Hassell needs to show us something. Temperature: cool.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid pro debut so far: .302/.397/.365 in High-A starting full time. He needs more walks, and needs to hit for more power, but can’t argue with a .300 hitter. Temperature: Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: sitting in XST, yet to debut. Temperature: TBD.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA in his AAA debut. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the team has over-promoted him basically his entire career. He had a .363 ERA in 19 AA starts last year; was that enough to prove he needed to move up? Honestly, I think he needed another month in AA but now he’s learning the AAA ropes on the fly. Temperature: cool.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He is sitting on the 7 day DL in AA, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026. Temperature: cool.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): just finished off a super month in AA slashing .319/.340/.505 and earned a promotion to AAA as of the day of this writing. He’s kept his Ks down, and has a .500 slugging with just two homers in the month, showing a ton of gap power. I’ve been bearish on him forever and may have to change my tune. His promotion was predicated by the release of Stone Garrett, who just never could recover from his broken leg and now makes way for Lile’s spot in the AAA outfield. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: is really struggling in Low-A: .115/.201/.148 for the month. Ouch. He only has 8 Ks in 15 games/61Abs, so that’s not bad. But this is not sustainable. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): As of this writing, has been activated to Low-A to make his first pro start since 2023, after missing all of last year rehabbing TJ. Our forgotten prospect, who was in the 8-10 range after his pro debut but now has drifted down into the deep teens. If he can return to his promise and his scouting report, he could be an important down-ballot prospect for this team. Temperature: tbd

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): can’t ask for much more here: just an 18th rounder who made the team out of spring training and who is now getting MLB starts. His numbers are mediocre in the majors, but his success story is top notch. He’s a massive success story for this team’s player development and amateur scouting department. Temperature: red hot for the development, luke warm for the production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: on the DSL roster for now, may get promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season. Temperature: tbd

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): slashing .233/.333/.349 as a starting corner OF in AAA. For now he’s starting, but may need to improve production.

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

• #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) got the opening day start for AAA and been holding his own but has a 1.50 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit.

• #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has been stellar in the MLB bullpen, after the team finally wised up and moved him to relief.

In AA:

• # 36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has gotten promoted twice already and is now contributing in the MLB bullpen. His numbers in the majors aren’t stellar, but he’s there.

• # 41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has already gotten promoted to AAA and should slot into the AAA closer role. He could be someone to replace an underperforming MLB reliever soon.

• # 47 Phillip Glasser SS is destroying AA pitching right now: .373/.418/.471. Not bad for a $20k bonus senior draft pick.

In High-A:

• #23 Elijah Green is still not hitting. .176/.265/.324 with 40 (!) strikeouts in 21 games. I’m just not sure what to say here. He should still be in Low-A until he learns how to hit.

• #26 Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled in his last April start). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. That’s promising and he may be moving up in prospect ranks soon.

• #27 Armando Cruz is at .192/.222/.250.

• #51 Brenner Cox is at .167/.231/.217 with 31 Ks in 16 games. Just not cutting it and i’m not sure why he was promoted out of Low-A.

In Low-A:

• #21 Christhian Vaquero is marginally improving his slash line, showing some power this year. .244/.320/.395.

• #42 Robert Cranz, the sudden top 30 prospect on BA and Law’s lists, has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. So, good and bad.

• #43 Randal Diaz, also surprisingly on Law’s top 20 list for the system, is struggling out of the gate. .230/.326/.270.