Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Nats Rotation End of June 2026 Check-In

4 comments

Sime keeps mowing them down in High-A. Photo via BA

Here’s the June 2026 check-in on rotations. I’ll return to a bit of bullpen-commentary this month, because we have just gotten some significant bullpen news in the majors.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

All Stats quoted are as of 6/30/26’s games.

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
  • End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
  • End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
  • End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots

Changes since end of last Month: No changes; the same 5 guys are still making all the “starts” and we still are seeing the likes of PJ Poulin being an Opener here and there.

Rotation Observations: After one bad outing in May, Foster Griffin’s been unhittable for a month: 5 starts, 1.15 ERA, 33/4 K/BB. If we bail on the season, he’s back to being a major trade bait. Speaking of unhittable, Cade Cavalli had his best career start, and one of the better starts in the history of the franchise (non-Max Scherzer category) last night in Boston: 7ip, 1hit, 13 Ks, 0 walks, and one inexplicable sh*t talk to Wilson Contreras that got everyone all riled up. It was enough to really paper over an other wise “meh” month for Cavalli. He’s still holding onto a sub 4.00 ERA for the season. Littell was so good in May, and was right back to being awful in June: 6.10 ERA for the month. Mikolas held it together in June, even if his K/9 rate keeps plummeting (just 15Ks in 34 IP in June). Lastly Alvarez continues to be more than an effective 5th starter: 5 starts, 3.00 ERA even if his WHIP is a little elevated. He continues to show he belongs in a MLB rotation, even if he’s not throwing 95. Alvarez is exactly the kind of low-cost, under the radar starter that can make a team suddenly a play off contender, by giving confident, solid innings from the back of the rotation instead of replacement level production like most 5th starters bring to the table.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April 2026: Mikolas
  • May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
  • June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas

Quick bullpen thoughts: I opined in general about the Philly collapse a week ago. We just got word that Mitchell Parker has a grade-3 strain of his UCL, and likely needs Tommy John surgery. This surgery, combined with his service time and overall struggles, will be presenting the team with a major decision this coming off-season, as is detailed in the MLBtraderumors.com article. He’ll be super-2, but will be basically out all of 2027; do you even tender him a contract? His production this year has been abhorrent out of the bullpen (6.58 ERA) but wasn’t a ton better last year as a starter (5.68 ERA across 33 games/30 starts). You hate to part ways with a home-grown guy, but I see little evidence he can be an effective starter or reliever at this point, and his 40-man spot may be better served by a pending rule5 eligible guy this coming off-season. Maybe we can offer him a MLFA/NRI deal so he can remain in the org and rehab with the only team he’s known, then give him a shot in 2027.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
  • End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
  • End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
  • End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener

Changes since end of last Month: Cornelio spent most of the month, including the end of it, in the MLB bullpen and had his “starts” replaced by middle-reliever Zach Penrod, who had four opens in the month. Reinforcements are arriving, as we’ll discuss in the AA promotion section.

Rotation Observations: Perales reverted to form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Maybe we move this guy to the bullpen and see if he can max it out effectively as a late-inning guy? Lara was average: 4.00 era, 1.53 whip, and a .265 BAA. Newly promoted Champlain got a full month’s run-out and was meh: 5.56 ERA, 13 Ks in 22 ip, an a .292 BAA. Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? The only other 2024 draftee to get to AAA thus far is Seaver King, who we’ll certainly talk about in the July 1 prospect post coming up soon.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
  • May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.
  • June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
  • May: Lara clearly.
  • June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
  • End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
  • End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
  • End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc

Changes since end of last Month: Ogawawara was released so he could return to Japan, ending our first (?) foray into the Japanese FA market with a thud. He was replaced by promoted long-man/spot starter Van Scoyoc and a slew of openers/bullpen games; 10 different guys had “starts” in June, but we’ll just talk about the ones making the longest stints per night.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? At Age 20? Hopefully not. Luckham was actually effective this month; a sub 3.00 ERA and good peripherals pitching behind openers for the most part. Lyon’s ERA was bloated in comparison to his excellent numbers: a 1.02 whip and a .183 BAA; he’s pitching very well for a 2025 draftee in AA. Randall’s first full month in AA was solid; 4 ERA, nearly a 1 whip, .229 BAA, a K/inning; that’s great. Van Scoyoc’s month was so-so, a 3.94 ERA in just 16ip but for some reason was the one they chose to promote up to slot into the rotation spot in AAA. Maybe it was social promotion, in that he’s a 26 MLFA who spent the entirety of 2025 in the AAA bullpen of Colorado.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
  • May: clearly Ogasawara.
  • June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1). After that it may be time to see if Luckham can make it “third time a charm” in AAA; he had starts there in 2024 and 2025.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Luckham.
  • May: still Luckham.
  • June: Chemmey

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
  • End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
  • End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
  • End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper

Changes since end of last Month: Polanco was dumped out of the rotation when Sime was promoted up. Similarly, Bruni went back to LR/SS duties when Tepper came off the DL officially after a long rehab stint in Low-A.

Rotation Observations: Riley Maddox had another solid month; 3.25 ERA, 1.10 whip, which led to his promotion at the end of the month. If it were me, I probably would have promoted Tejeda, who cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 innings. Meckley struggled badly this month, with 9 Ks and 15BBs in 16ip and a 6.06 ERA. Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Finally Tepper, back after 6 rehab starts in lower minors, had a solid first month back but is walking too many guys. Interestingly, after finally being relieved of starter duties, Polanco in a long-man role had a decent month; ERA in the 3s, decent peripherals. Maybe he just needs to be an innings eater in the middle of the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
  • May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
  • June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Polanco
  • May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
  • June: Meckley

Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

  • Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
  • End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
  • End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
  • End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.

Changes since end of last Month: Sime was promoted, replaced by De la Cruz. When Tepper’s rehab ended, they put Manning into the starting rotation.

Rotation Observations: Portorreal reverted to his earlier season form and put up an 8 ERA for the month; that’s just not going to cut it, with the huge number of MLFAs pouring into the system that the team may want to try out as starter. Luke Johnson, who the team signed for exactly $2k in 2024 as a 10th round throw away pick, dominated last month to the tune of a 1.86 ERA. Fischer had a solid month, turning 4 starts into a 3.60 ERA and a promotion (like with Maddox above, not sure why it was Fischer to move up and not someone else). Manning struggled in the rotation for the first time, with a 5.60 ERA for the month. Lastly De la Cruz, the first 24IFA arm to get out of rookie ball (Angel Feliz is in High-A, also a 24IFA), had an abhorrent k/bb ratio 10k/18bb in 15Ip but somehow kept his ERA at 2.30 for the month.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” or long relief work at this point in Low-A: Travis Sthele threw a donut this month: 5 games, 16ip, 0 runs. All in “rehab” appearances. Clearly he needs to go back home to High-A.

Lastly, DJ Herz made one rehab start, then got diagnosed with a left flexor strain, so he’s back to being shut down, and who knows now when he’ll be back.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
  • May: Fischer
  • June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
  • May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
  • June: Portorreal

Rookie FCL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

  • Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
  • End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
  • End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan

Changes since end of last Month: De la Cruz promoted, replaced by Gillis.

Rotation Observations: Reyes continues to hold a respectable 4.09 ERA.as a 21yr old 23IFA. Robles has 20 walks in 24IP and needs to tighten up. Lopez has 17 walks in 21 innings; same story. Bothwell is a 26yr old MLFA with an ERA north of 9.00, but he does have 34 ks in 26ip. Nonetheless, not sure why he’s still rostered after having been demoted from Low-A earlier this year. In Gillis’ two starts; 5 runs on 10 hits. Too early to tell. Lastly we have Millikan, the sole bright spot on the starters: in 5 games and 17IP he has a 0.53 ERA. Time to move up the 23yr old MLFA.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • May: Reyes (ended up being De la Cruz)
  • June: Millikan

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • May: Robles
  • June: Bothwell

Rookie DSL

Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.

  • Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
  • End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas

Changes since end of last Month: Reynoso made 3 starts, then hasn’t appeared since 6/19 (but isn’t on the DL). He seems to have been replaced by LR/SS Salas for the time being.

Rotation Observations: The first month of a DSL rotation is always fun, with 17yr olds coming face to face with pro hitters for the first time and sometimes putting up astronomical numbers. Manzueta: 11+ ERA. Medina: 0.96 ERA. Night and day. Sarit’s 6.48 ERA a little inflated when looking at peripherals. Reynoso got shelled for 3 outings then hit the non-DL bench. Carela looks good so far in 4 starts, but it’s just 10 innings. Salas has 4 appearances and 9ip and has struggled so far.

Amongst those also getting longer outings/tandem starts: Jesus Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA in 11ip and Manuel Ruiz has a 5.23 IP in 10innings. Everyone else in the DSL seems to be more in the 1-2 IP/appearance range right now.

In the bullpen, Rafael Mejas gave up 0 runs in 7 middle relief innings for a good start.

On the other end of the spectrum, here’s a line for you: Aldemaro Sevilla, signed in January, had 4 apperances, threw 6 2/3 innings. In those 4 games, he gave up 14 runs on 8 hits and 14 walks. That’s a 17.55 ERA and a 3.30 whip.

Next guy to get promoted:

  • June: Medina

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

  • June: Manzueta

That’s it for June 2026.

Written by Todd Boss

July 1st, 2026 at 2:47 pm

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews

This Week’s Bullpen Catastrophe May be the Death’s Knell for the season’s playoff aspirations

11 comments

I like Lord, but man he got pummeled this week. Photo via threads.com IG

It’s always fun when Philadelphia comes into town. Three of their best hitters are former Nats (Turner, Harper, and Schwarber) and a massive number of DC area residents are PA transplants more than willing to scarf up cheap seats, drink beer, and make noise.

This week’s trip though had a somewhat ominous feeling. That’s because this week may finally have been the breaking point for the cobbled together bullpen for this erstwhile wild card contender.

  • On Tuesday, the bullpen gave up three in the 8th and eight in the 9th to blow two leads in two innings.
  • On Wednesday, they gave up 2 in the 9th to blow another lead.
  • On Thursday, they turned a 5-0 lead into a 10-5 loss, this time giving up five in the 9th, including a F-You homer from or former prodigal son Harper.

That’s, not good. Those are debilitating losses for an offense that did its job and demoralizing for starters who put the team in position to win. Nearly every guy in the bullpen over the last three days showed the kind of ineptitude that would lead to demotions or outright releases on a real team.

  • Tuesday it was Lovelady for 3, Lord for 6, and Schultz for 2
  • Wednesday it was Ribalta and Lovelady for 1 apiece
  • Thursday it was Parker for 3, Varland for 5

The only relievers not named for ineptitude this week were Poulin (the opener on Tuesday who also got a hold Wednesday) and our closer Beeter (who blew saves on both Tuesday and Thursday but somehow avoided having any ERs).

Fun fact, and a reason I began writing this post: I read someone on twitter point out that the Nats relievers now have had 48 Save Opportunities this season and have blown HALF of them. Half! Mitchell Parker has as many blown saves by himself as the entire Houston Astros team this season, and our closer Beeter isn’t far behind, having padded his stats this week. Pretty awesome statistic.

I’ve been kind of beating the drum on this bullpen for a while, having been thrown together primarily with MLFAs, Waiver claims, and low-level trade acquisitions. Somehow the team has remained above .500 for weeks thanks to an amazing offense in spite of the pitching staff deficiencies. But this week, it finally collapsed.

There’s five 40-man relievers in AAA right now, four of them down there because they weren’t even as good as the crew we have in the majors. Henry has a 6.00 ERA in the majors this season, Granillo a 9.64 ERA, Kent a 6+ ERA in limited innings, and Schulz at 5.87. We also have a just-acquired waiver claim in Justin Lawrence, who may be next in line for the firing squad if the team decides to demote one of these guys before the weekend series.

On top of that, the team has spent most of the last 2 months grabbing every MLFA they could find looking for reinforcements. This team now has 35 MLFAs in its system signed this year, all up and down the system, many of them arms. They’ve got 26yr old MLFAs in rookie ball, they’ve got Indy league castoffs up and down the system, they’ve got a 29yr old MLFA from the Mexican leagues in AA. All looking for found gold apparently. Havn’t really found it yet, but we’re running out of time.

Is this week’s results the end of our Wild Card dreams? Well, no, but they’re not looking good. We lost 3 games to a Wild Card competitor and now sit 3 games out of the last wild card spot. We can get healthy fast; our next six games are away to AL East competition that normally would be competitive, but are not this year (Baltimore and Boston). However, these two teams are not easy to beat, especially on the road. Then we host Pittsburgh and Houston, both hovering around .500 like us. Our last series before the ASB is hosting the Yankees, which could be a telling series to take us into the break.

If this team scuffles through its next few series, then gets pulverized by the Yankees, that could be the signal to the front office to Sell, Sell, Sell. We’ll see.

Written by Todd Boss

June 26th, 2026 at 9:36 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching,Nats in General

2026 CWS Final: Oklahoma Wins!

one comment

Requisite Dogpile picture. Photo courtesy of NCAA

This past weekend Oklahoma took on UNC in the CWS finals to win.

Here’s a quick game by game recap.

  • Game 1: Oklahoma got to UNC’s starter Jason Nicaro fast, knocking him out in the 4th and building a 7-3 lead they wouldn’t give up. Their own starter Cord Rager settled down after giving up 3 in the first to keep his team in the game, and Oklahoma’s Jaxon Willits (brother of Eli) hit 4th for the sooners and helped drive the offense.
  • Game 2: OK scored early, but UNC hung in and got 5 one-hit shutout innings from its star long reliever Glauber, which gave the offense time to win the game 6-2 and send it to the Monday finale. Oklahoma let their starter Xander Mercurious throw FIFTY (50) pitches in the third inning… and then brought him back out for the 4th! Yeah, that’s not good.
  • Game 3: Oklahama’s offense just would not stop, knocking out UNC arm after arm and eventually winning by the lopsided score of 13-2 to win the national title. In the “not to be outdone” category, UNC brought in their freshman stud Glauber, who threw 65 pitches on Sunday, with zero days rest into the highest of high leverage situations in this game. That’s serious coaching malpractice, and I hope Glauber’s arm didn’t suffer any permanent damage.

Your 2026 College World Series Champion: Oklahoma Sooners

Final list of all 2026 CWS coverage this year:

Here’s some links to past years of CWS coverage here. I’ve been doing this for almost 15 years now! Each link below is the blog post covering that CWS final.

That’s it for the 2026 CWS tournament. It was a weird tournament, losing the two top seeds early and then the odds-on favorite quickly in Omaha. There was very little star power, unlike the previous few years when the eventual champions were led by 1-1 draft candidates.

Up next: the draft season kicks into gear; we’ll post more mocks and more analysis, do the July 1st recaps of prospects and pitching, and then see who we pick 11th overall in mid July.

Written by Todd Boss

June 23rd, 2026 at 9:39 am

Posted in College/CWS

2026 CWS Coverage – Omaha Group Play and Finals preview

one comment

After a couple of frenetic weeks of tracking CWS regional and super regionals, we’re through the pedestrian-paced group play in Omaha and have reached the final of the 2026 CWS tournament; here’s a recap of group play in Omaha for the 2026 CWS.

Resources/links I use heavily during CWS time:

In the Top Bracket (#16 West Virginia, Troy, #5 North Carolina, Ole Miss )

  • In the opening games, as they’ve had a habit of doing, WVA got two runs late to win it 7-5 over Troy, while UNC scored 5 runs in the 7th and 8th innings to sneak past Ole Miss and put themselves into a great position, having passed the first test by beating the sole SEC participant in the group.
  • In the first elimination game, Troy got a historic program win, ousting the SEC’s Ole Miss with a two-and-out, to stay alive.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, UNC took control of the group with a solid 5-2 win over West Virginia.
  • In the play-in game, West Virginia waxed Troy 12-0 (as one might expect) to put themselves into the group final.
  • In the group final, UNC jumped ahead early and the game was never in doubt, eventually winning 12-7 to wrap up the group without a loss and move to the CWS final.

Final Group standings: UNC, WVA, Troy, Ole Miss

In the Bottom Bracket (#3 Georgia, #6 Texas, #7 Alabama, Oklahoma)

  • In the opening games, #7 Alabama could do nothing with Oklahoma’s starer Cord Rager (7ip, 3h, 0r) and lost 9-0. Meanwhile, Georgia’s Joey Volchko threw a complete game with 15Ks, 4 hits and one unearned run as Georgia dominated Texas.
  • In the first elimination game, #6 Texas destroyed #7 Alabama, scoring 7 runs on their starter in the first two innings to send them home 2 and out.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, Oklahoma stunned #3 Georgia with 3 in the first, then made the lead stick as they took control of the bracket.
  • In the play-in game, two Georgia arms tag-teamed for a 4-hit shutout to send Texas home and give themselves a shot at living up to pre-CWS predictions
  • In the group final, Oklahoma never trailed, and blew out the game late to win 11-4 and move to the CWS final.

Final Group standings: Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas, Alabama

Analysis/commentary

UNC winning the Group A isn’t much of a surprise, given the weakness of the group. But Oklahoma beating three top-8 seeds and fellow SEC members is a shock, and a testament to the depth of the SEC. Oklahoma finished 14-16 in the SEC and was the 11th ranked team in the conference. And now they’re in the CWS final. That’s why they play the games, eh?

CWS Preview and Prediction:

Thanks to clean weather and no extra games, both squad’s pitching staffs will be on full and regular rest. The potential third game “starters” would be slightly rushed back; they’d have 4 days rest instead of the normal 6-day cycle in college baseball, but that’s certainly not going to kill anyone’s arm, especially if its the final game of the season.

The CWS national series starts on Saturday 6/20/26.

  • Sat 6/20/26: UNC’s Jason Decaro (10-2, 2.35 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Cord Rager (6-3, 4.69 ERA)
  • Sun 6/21/26: UNC’s Ryan Lynch (4-4, 4.53 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Xander Mercurius (1-2, 5.51 ERA)
  • (if needed) Mon 6/22/26. UNC’s Jackson Rose (5-0, 2.15 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Nick Wesloski (2-1, 3.63 ERA)

Suffice it to say, neither team is known for lock down pitching necessarily. A couple of these “starters” are actually the staff’s long relievers, and some of these games may turn into bullpen games, or use openers, or other creative pitching plans. Look for a high-offense final set.

Prediction? UNC in three.

Written by Todd Boss

June 19th, 2026 at 10:40 am

Posted in College/CWS

Nationals surprise performance this season changing “The Plan” in front of our eyes

19 comments

Abrams can’t possibly be traded now, can he? Photo via Wikipedia

As I write this post on 6/17/26, the Washington Nationals baseball team sits at 39-35. Four games over .500 for the first time since the 2019 season, and if the season ended today they’ve be the last NL Wild Card.

To say that I’m generally shocked the team is in this position is putting things lightly.

When the team cut bait on its pre-FA stars in July 2021 (Schwarber, Turner, Scherzer) and then again in Aug 2022 (Soto), I figured we were on another 5 year rebuilding path, not unlike the one we endured as fans starting in 2008. That rebuild plan ran into a bit of a snag though, as ownership turned over and the new group refused to spend money to augment the roster when injuries took out key planned contributors. A real gap in player development thanks to basically 5 straight blown drafts from 2016-2020 doomed the team from really having any chance to compete without those FAs, and we drifted for years.

The new regime, marked by its openness to analytics and its youth, seemed like it was preparing the 2026 season to be a 60-win team, trading away its best arm for prospects, grabbing a half a dozen waiver claims throughout the beginning of the year, and starting the 2026 season with fully 1/4 of its opening day roster being comprised of Rule5, Waiver claims, or MLFAs while sending down a slew of guys who ended the 2025 season on the MLB roster.

I was convinced this was a “bottoming out” technique, just grabbing spare parts off the waiver wire to see who stuck at the expense of guys like Crews, or Hassell, or Parker.

Well, damned if it doesn’t look like its working. We’re nearly to the halfway point of the season and the team is at 39-35. How? Well, somehow this team leads the league in Runs scored, and they sit 3rd (behind only the LAD and NYY) in terms of total team wRC+. That’s patently amazing. Wood and Abrams of course, but Ruiz is crushing the ball all of a sudden, Garcia is holding his own, Lile continues to be productive, found-gold Mead is hitting for a ton of power, and even most of the fringe infielders are holding their own.

The starters collectively aren’t great for the season… but after weathering the April storm, the starters have gone from dead last in multiple metrics to middle-of the road. The Relievers are still awful, but just less awful as the manager has used openers freely (a first for the organization), has not been afraid to call up guys to give innings, and we have a few guys who we can now count on when the chips are down. The team continues almost weekly to sign additional veteran MLFAs, who are waiting in the wings like army reinforcements, ready to come up and help out and see who can stick.

It’s amazing really. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 series! How is that possible?

Now for the big question; you can’t possibly sell at the trade deadline if you’re in playoff contention, can you?? The entire off-season was talking about flipping Gore and Abrams … you can’t possibly break this team up now, can you? Now, if they go on a swoon and go on a 10-20 stretch … sure. That’s probably be too big of a gap to overcome. but, again, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 series; they’re more likely to go 20-10 than 10-20 right now.

Anyway. It seems like I rarely write about the big league team since .. well, tracking prospects and dreaming on guys in Low-A is more fun than hyper analyzing a second division team, which they’ve been basically from the moment they won the 2019 World Series. But fair is fair; this rag tag team seems like it could absolutely be in the playoffs in October. Amazing.

Written by Todd Boss

June 17th, 2026 at 11:50 am

Posted in Nats in General

CBA Bargaining first proposals: why the Owner’s salary cap and floor proposal is BS

7 comments

I’m a little late with this post, thanks to this time of year being a little tough to keep up with in Baseball, but I wanted to comment on the opening offers in the upcoming CBA labor war.

I’ve been on record for some time as being a real cynic for essentially anything that comes out of the MLB owners’ collective mouths when it comes to bargaining sessions. I’ve shown before how the owners have systematically pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars of collective salary over the past decade of CBAs, and how they’ve picked and picked at a “salary cap” for years in the form of a Luxury tax with increasing penalties.

Now, in the first salvos of the upcoming Collective Bargaining sessions for the soon-to-expire CBA between the league and its players, the owners have laid it bare: they want a hard cap.

They’ve proposed a floor of $171,200,000 and a cap of $245,300,000.

In this post, let’s talk about the Cap and Floor, specifically. This is the first time the owners have proposed a Floor, and it’s a hefty one. So, naturally you may say, “ok well the $171M floor is super high … that would guarantee a ton more money goes to the players, right?”

Wrong.

Here’s some quick simple arithmetic to show that the owner’s offer is self-serving. Using Cot’s macro numbers for each of the 30 teams’ 40-man/CBA tax figure (which includes salaries for all 40-man players, plus deferrals, plus minor leagues, plus benefits), I’m going to show you why this initial proposal is disengenuous.

TeamCB tax rankCB Tax figureO/UAmt over Cap or Amt to get to floorCap/Floor
LAD1$420,000,000Over-174700000$245,300,000
NYY2$379,200,000Over-133900000$245,300,000
NYY3$338,700,000Over-93400000$245,300,000
tor4$322,700,000Over-77400000$245,300,000
Phi5$314,800,000Over-69500000$245,300,000
Bos6$268,700,000Over-23400000$245,300,000
SDP7$259,200,000Over-13900000$245,300,000
Atl8$253,400,000Over-8100000$245,300,000
CHC9$249,700,000Over-4400000$245,300,000
Det10$245,200,000Within$245,200,000
Hou11$237,200,000Within$237,200,000
SF12$230,900,000Within$230,900,000
Ari13$226,100,000Within$226,100,000
Bal14$218,800,000Within$218,800,000
Tex15$207,800,000Within$207,800,000
Sea16$199,500,000Within$199,500,000
LAA17$196,400,000Within$196,400,000
KC18$185,300,000Within$185,300,000
Cin19$151,100,000Below20100000$171,200,000
Col20$141,900,000Below29300000$171,200,000
Oak21$141,400,000Below29800000$171,200,000
Mil22$139,700,000Below31500000$171,200,000
Pit23$138,500,000Below32700000$171,200,000
Min24$131,800,000Below39400000$171,200,000
Was25$122,700,000Below48500000$171,200,000
STL26$112,900,000Below58300000$171,200,000
TB27$112,200,000Below59000000$171,200,000
CWS28$111,700,000Below59500000$171,200,000
Cle29$88,800,000Below82400000$171,200,000
Mia30$82,000,000Below89200000$171,200,000

Sorry for the crummy formatting, but hopefully you get the gist.

  • 9 Teams are currently over the proposed hard cap. They’re a collective $598M over.
  • 12 Teams are currently under the proposed floor. They’re a collective $579M under.
  • If you add up the 30 team’s current CB tax figure, you get to $6.228B in payroll.
  • If you add up the Cap/Floor figures, assuming that the 9 over teams get under, the 12 teams currently under raise to the floor, and the middle ground teams stay where they are … you get $6.209B

In other words … the Owners just proposed a system that will see them spend LESS than they currently are. And that’s before we get any details in to the supposed 50/50 split on “league revenues” that is usually laughable to arrive at, since 28 of the 30 teams are privately owned and refuse to open their books.

Yes this is just a first offer, so presumably the next offer will raise these figures to something more palatable. There’s no details on penalties for teams who refuse to spend the floor (and you KNOW there’s going to be teams that refused to get there). There’s no details on how we possibly get to this system from where we are now, with long-term contracts that would have to be grandfathered in somehow or an incremental implementation plan.

Yes, I get it; NFL, NBA, and NHL all manage to live with a defined revenue split and a cap/floor. but, all three of those leagues also have simple, national TV contracts that facilitate and equalize revenue across teams. That instantly make playing in NYC little different than playing in Green Bay, Wisconsin. So it’s still apples and oranges. Baseball is such a regional sport, it’s just hard to imagine teams like the Yankees, Boston, Cubs, and Dodgers giving up their lucrative local RSN deals for the betterment of their co-owners. Especially when we don’t even KNOW what some of these teams actually earn from RSN deals because they, you know, own the RSN.

There’s a slew of other issues presented that go along with this, but I wanted to focus on this issue as a starting point.

Written by Todd Boss

June 15th, 2026 at 9:22 am

Posted in Baseball in General

2026 CWS Coverage – Super Regionals Recap and CWS Preview

2 comments

We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field. Here’s a recap of the supers and a preview of the CWS field.

Resource links to help with this:

First, lets recap the Supers.

  • #16 West Virginia v Cal Poly: West Virginia absolutely pulverized Cal Poly, winning 12-2 and 17-1 to get to Omaha and sing Bob Denver one more time with the crowd.
  • Troy v Arkansas Little Rock: Troy made fast work of A-LR, winning 12-2 and 7-2 to get to Omaha in a dream.
  • #5 North Carolina v Southern California: USC came to hit, winning the first game before UNC pulled it back to force the decider. In the 3rd game, UNC scored once in the 8th and twice in the 9th to walk it off.
  • #4 Auburn vs Ole Miss: Ole Miss won two close games on the road to head to Omaha.
  • #3 Georgia vs #14 Mississippi State: Georgia won a ridiculous 13-12 game to open the Super Regional, then held on for an 11-9 win to secure Omaha.
  • #6 Texas vs #11 Oregon: Texas blew away Oregon to open the super regional, then scored twice in the 8th to take the lead and made it stick to get to Omaha.
  • #7 Alabama vs St. Johns: Alabama blanked St. Johns to open the series, then beat them 7-2 in a suspended match to move on.
  • #15 Kansas vs Oklahoma: Oklahoma blew out Kansas 8-1 to open, t hen destroyed them again 13-2 in the suspended 2nd game to move on.

Super Regional Predictions versus Actuals

  • predicted: WVA, Troy, UNC, Auburn, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma
  • actuals: WVA, Troy, UNC, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma

Prediction summary: 7 for 8. Only missed Ole Miss vs Auburn

Stats/Observations of the 8 Super Regionals.

  • 6 out of 8 Super Regional Hosts to advance. Kansas and Auburn missed.
  • Only 1 regionals went to the 3rd/deciding game; the UNC-USC matchup.
  • Conference Breakdown of the eight Advancers:
    • SEC: 5 of the 8
    • ACC: 1: UNC
    • Sun Belt: 1 Troy
    • Big12: 1 West Virginia

Fun fact: not one team from 2025’s CWS field made it back to Omaha. Last year’s field was: Arizona, Arkansas, Coastal Carolina, Louisville, LSU, Murray State, Oregon State, and UCLA. Not only did none of these 8 return … none of them even made it back to a Super Regional! In fact, half of them didn’t even make the 2026 field of 64 (Arizona, Louisville, Murray State, and LSU, which didn’t make the field for the first time since 2011). I heard an interesting theory as to why, and it relates to the transfer portal. The transfer portal is open, right now, while the best 8 teams in the country and all their coaches are in Omaha trying to win a national title. Instead of recruiting and talking to transfer candidates for next year’s team, they’re preparing for one last tournament. So they’re at a massive disadvantage to players who may take the first “good” offer they get.

It seems like a simple fix: keep the transfer portal closed until the season is over. Duh.

So, your 2026 CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):

  • Group 1 (1,4,5,8): #16 West Virginia, Troy, #5 North Carolina, Ole Miss
  • Group 2 (2,3,6,7): #3 Georgia, #6 Texas, #7 Alabama, Oklahoma

Once again, its a really, really lopsided CWS. Group 2 is stacked with three national seeds and four teams from the SEC, while group A has just one National seed and the random Troy team that made it.

RPIs of the CWS field: Here’s the Live/updated RPI of the field, plus the pre-CWS tournament RPI for those teams who were seeds.

  • #3 Georgia: #5 (started #7)
  • #5 UNC: #4 (started #4)
  • #6 Texas #3 (started #5)
  • #7 Alabama #6 (started #6)
  • #16 West Virginia: #14 (started #17)
  • Ole Miss #9 (started #13)
  • Oklahoma #16 (was #20)
  • Troy #26 (was #28)

We’re still looking at a pretty strong CWS field, with four teams out of the top 6 in RPI still playing.

Prospect Watch in the Super Regionals:

There were so few 1st rounders competing in the Super Regionals as compared to years’ past that I didn’t even bother to do this section this year.

My CWS Predictions

Top half: I don’t like how UNC struggled so i’m tempted to say Ole Miss, but they’ll have an easier 1st round matchup against Troy, which may serve them well. I’m still gonna say Ole Miss.

Bottom Half: Well, with all four teams in the SEC, we have some history from the regular season. Georgia-Oklahoma in game 1; they did not meet in the regular season, so advantage GA. Texas beat Alabama 2 out of 3 in a home series, so advantage Texas. Then, Georgia/Texas didn’t meet either, so advantage GA again. That puts Georgia in the title game. Alabama won 2 of 3 at Oklahoma earlier this year, so advantage to them in the first elimination game. Then Alabama would play Texas again, so i’m thinking its Georgia-Texas in the regional final.

Final: Georgia over Ole Miss.

Written by Todd Boss

June 11th, 2026 at 9:03 am

Posted in College/CWS

Mock Drafts and Draft Class Ranks as we get closer to Draft Season

3 comments

2-way prep star Jared Gringlinger is settling in on multiple mocks to the Nats at #11. Photo via BA

Each year we have basically three categories of mock drafts and Draft Board Ranks:

  • The way too early drafts, which are done any time in 2025 for the 2026 draft all the way to those done within the first couple of months of the spring season. I reviewed the Phase 1 version of mocks about a month ago.
  • The “starting to get down to business” mock drafts, which start to really look at those who are rising and falling due to 2026 performance, those who have had injury issues, plus those who have clarified their “going to school” status.
  • The “week leading up to the draft” Mocks where the major pundits are working the phones to get for-real intel into who the teams are looking at, and sometimes we get mocks the day of that nearly nail the top 10.

We’re now well into Phase 2; that is this analysis. In fact, there’s been so many i’m publishing now and may do another version of this as more mocks come in the rest of the month.

Macro Draft Class statements: the pundits are reporting:

  • The top of the draft is weaker than in year’s past
  • Class Strengths include College bats, Prep Pitching for depth.
  • Weaknesses seem to be prep bats after the top 3-4 names, college arms this year for sure.

So, let’s get to it. For each Mock i’ll list the top 5 names plus who they project to the Nats at #11 with some commentary. I’ll spell out player names the first time they’re used, then just use last names going forward. Also, I’m adding more commentary to each mock in this section, and will identify names who the Nats would purposely be skipping in each mock who I think they’d give serious thought to taking.

  • Keith Law Mock 1.0 5/7/26: Grady Emerson (prep SS, Texas HS), Roch Cholowsky (SS UCLA), Vahn Lackey (C Georgia Tech), Jackson Flora (RHP UC Santa Barbara), Eric Booth Jr (prep OF, Miss HS). Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, SS/3B from Texas A&M (and thus leaving Peterson, Bell, and Lebron on the table). Law is the first mock drafter who does NOT have Cholowsky going 1-1 in this cycle, and freely admits that the team drafting 1st overall (the White Sox) may be sending smoke signals to the Cholowsky camp to tamper down bonus demands. I think they’d be fools not to take the UCLA shortstop, who entered the season the consensus 1-1 candidate and has done absolutely nothing but produce and keep that reputation. Meanwhile, as I’ve mentioned in prior posts there’s a big “gap” in prep prospects right in the section where the Nats draft, which really makes it seem like we’ll be drafting a college bat.
  • Jim Callis MLBpipeline First Officiail Mock 5/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Jacob Lombard (prep SS , Florida HS), Flora. Nats at #11 take Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS. This would be a shock overdraft, as he’s ranked well outside the 1st round on draft boards right now. In this mock, picking Gridlinger would leave in particular Curiel on the table, but also the likes of Hacopian, Flukey, Bell, etc. Grindlinger reclassified from 2027, so he’d be super young like Willits, but may also go under-slot which would allow for more over-slot prep draftees in rounds 2-5.
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 5/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech. Burress has been in the top 10 of this draft since the beginning of the cycle, and BA has mocked Burress to the Nats now a couple of times with these exercises. In this mock, the Nats would be passing on the likes of Bell, Curiel, Gridlinger, Lebron, etc. But, BA has some of these players now in the 20s, implying that a 6.1M slot value would sign for something 33% less 10 picks later. Players like Peterson and Reese, who have been mocked to the Nats earlier in this cycle, are now nearly out of the 1st round.
  • Keith Law Draft Ranks 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Flora, Bell, Emerson. As Law notes immediately in the write-up, this is a rank, not a mock. He’s got Bell in particular in the top 4, but i’ve seen mocks with Bell going in the 20s. That’d be such an amazing steal for that team if indeed Bell is this good. He also ranks Lombard (regularly in the top 5 on these mocks) way way down at #17, so I can imagine what he thinks of a team popping him that early. Some of the names associated with the Nats at #11 are deep into the 20s on this list (Hacopian, Gracia), while others are much higher (Burress in particular).
  • Espn/Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Grindlinger, same as the MLBpipeline mock above. McDaniel reports that the consensus decision at 1-1 is now nearly a 50/50 proposition with Emerson rising fast. Grindlinger is reported as a two-way player, better on the hit side but still promising on the arm side (as a pitcher-only prospect he’s a comp-to-early 2nd rounder). In this scenario, the Nats would be passing on Peterson, Curiel, Lebron.
  • ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. #11 is Grindlinger as it turns out. McDaniel’s draft board isn’t entirely in sync with his recent mock draft, showing Lombard out of the top 5, which is consistent with many of the draft rankings despite is frequent placement in the top 5. His rank exposes one of the big disagreements between pundits: where to rank Tyler Bell? McDaniel ranks him #29 while Law ranks him #4. That’s a really, really wide gap.
  • Jonathan Mayo/MLBpipeline 5/21/26 Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora, Lombard, Lackey. #11 Nats take Justin Lebron, SS from Alabama. Lebron has been “polarizing” this season b/c he started the mock draft season as an easy top 5 pick but has struggled this season, badly. As of the beginning of SEC play he’s only slashing .266/.384/.522. I say “only” since he’s got 14 homers … and 38/39 SBs. He wasn’t on a bunch of pre-season AA lists for nothing. Question is: what’s his true hit tool? .266 this year or his .314 last year? In this scenario Nats would leave players like Peterson, Curiel, Gracia, Gridlinger, and Bell on the board, all names we’ve seen them associated with in prior mocks. This really highlights to me just how wide open this area of the draft is this year.
  • Dan Zielinski III from Baseball Prospect Journal released his Mock 1.0 on 5/23/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Basically the same top 5 as most everyone else at this point. He’s got Nats at #11 on Gridlinger, though he’s have us skip over in particular Cameron Flukey, the Coastal Carolina #1 starter who is probably the 2nd best arm on the board. I know you don’t draft for Need … but do we “need” yet another prep SS? Maybe its time to infuse more pitching into the system, since every one of our prospect stars this season seems to be a hitter.
  • Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. #11 ranked is divisive Kentucky SS Tyler Bell. Bell projects as a well rounded SS who can play all over the dirt in a pinch, with solid marks for all five tools but no 60s or 70s anywhere. He was a 2nd rounder out of HS, went to college, and now projects as a mid 1st rounder. He hurt his shoulder in the first week of the season and played through it a bit, which has hampered his draft stock/stats, something to think about from a value perspective. Bell at #11 could be a solid pick.
  • Baseball Prospectus Draft board 5/28/26: entirely behind a paywall. If anyone has an account let me know.
  • ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Mock 2.0 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same 5 as the last few mocks, in slightly different order. He puts the Nats on Gridlinger, like a few others, saying “Grindlinger has been tied to this spot for a while.” In this scenario Burress is long gone, but the Nats take the prep SS over the likes of Hacopian, Bell, Flukey, Lebron.
  • MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. #11 ranked player is Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey, though as we know player ranks tend to fluctuate with day in and day out performance. If Flukey dominates in the CWS regional (CCU is an underdog in their regional) we could see him pop up a bit.
  • Jonathan Mayo Industry survey 6/1/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora again. We’re definitely starting to see some consistency here. This wasn’t a ranking, but more of a survey.
  • D1Baseball Top 250 draft board 6/4/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Hacopian, Bell. D1’s list is only D1 players, no Prep players, and is weird in that they have Lackey over Cholowsky, basically the only service that does so. I also think they have some players too high/too low in comparison to others.
  • Post-D1 regional MLBPipeline mock 6/5/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same top 5 as everyone. He’s got Nats on Gridlinger once again, but says that if Burress or Hacopian are available they could go here. In this scenario, the Nats leave Flukey, Curiel, Reese, Bell, and Lebron on the table.
  • Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26: that’s just a crazy amount of analysis, even given the modern day of travel teams and showcases for these kids. 500 prep kids ranked. The top 5 prep kids go as expected: Emerson, Lombard, Booth, Rojas, and Nats favorite Grindlinger. There’s a smattering of Virginia-based kids, not a ton as this seems to be a pretty down year for prep kids in the state.
  • Baseball America’s Mock 4.0 6/8/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Again, same top 5 names. Nats at #11 once again projected to Grindlinger. In this mock, they’d leave Lebron, Reese, Hacopian on the list. I wonder if Hacopian would tempt them.

Conclusion: most of these mocks have the same 4-5 names within the top 5 picks.

  • Cholowsky: has been 1-1 on practically every mock draft
  • Emerson: nearly always in the top 2
  • Lackey: seems to be consistently the next player taken after Cholowsky/Emerson are done.
  • Lombard and Flora are the two names that most frequently round out the top 5, albeit sometimes with interlopers.

Names most frequently mocked to Nats at this point: Grindlinger, Hacopian, Burress, though in later mocks Burress is mostly gone by the time Nats pick at #11.

Written by Todd Boss

June 9th, 2026 at 10:05 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2026 CWS Coverage – Regional Recap and Super Regional Preview

5 comments

The busiest weekend in College Baseball has past; here’s a run down of the opening weekend of the College Baseball playoffs. There were a TON of upsets, including a historic one, and a lot of great games to recap.

Resource links to help with this:

Here are Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup. that means, the pairs of regionals being reviewed (#1 UCLA regional and #16 West Virginia regional) will determine that Super Regional. The eventual winning team is bolded.

  • #1 UCLA regional: an absolute stunner as the top seed not only loses its first round, but for just the 3rd time in my memory fails to advance out of its own regional. They didn’t even get to the regional final! St. Marys beats them twice to eliminate the nation’s only team ranked #1 all year, but then the Gaels couldn’t take out #3 seed Cal Poly, who shocks the field and advances to the super regional. Pundits say this says a ton about Big 10 baseball and how weak it is. That may be fair. UCLA still endeavored to play a tough non-conference schedule (they were #28 in SoS so it’s not like they played a bunch of weaklings). But they came up short.
  • #16 West Virginia regional: this was one of those regionals you’ll remember for a while. #3 seed Kentucky was in the driver’s seat, but host WVA scored 5 in the 9th late on Sunday to force the winner-take-all game Monday, then walked it off in the bottom of the 10th. Afterwards, the entire crowd sang John Denver’s Country road in unison along with their team, a video that gave me chills. I tell you what, it doesn’t get any better than this. West Virginia moves on, somehow.
  • #8 Florida Regional: baseball powerhouse Florida was in full control of this regional … until they weren’t. Troy, one of the last teams into the tournament and one that many thought should have been left out for (In particular) Mercer, beat Florida on their home field twice in the final to head to the super as a #3 seed. Troy beat Florida 16-11 and then 10-2, results that are going to have Fla’s coach looking for pitching in the transfer portal for sure.
  • #9: Southern Miss regional: Southern Miss hosted, but they didn’t show up, going two-and-out. UVA was eliminated by powerhouse Jacksonville State (kidding), and the region’s #4 seed Arkansas Little Rock advanced to the super regional.
  • #5; UNC regional: North Carolina cruised to the regional title without really being pressed, beating ECU twice. VCU impressed with a win over Tennessee, but otherwise this was a simple region.
  • #12: TAMU regional: Texas A&M was in the driver’s seat, then suddenly Southern California couldn’t make an out. USC, after losing its first game 5-4, won by the following scores in order: 19-6, 15-4, 14-3, and 7-1, the last two beatings over host TAMU to advance. USC was an RPI anomaly heading into the event, with a top 10 RPI but just a 1-11 record against Q1 schools. Well, they’re 3-11 now, and I wouldn’t want to face this offense. Phew.
  • #13 Nebraska regional: to little surprise, the over-seeded Nebraska team fell to both baseball powerhouses in ASU and eventually winner Ole Miss, who cruised to the regional title.
  • #4: Auburn regional: All credit to Milwaukee, who beat Auburn to open the region and made them beat them two more times before falling. #4 National seed Auburn survives somehow and advances.

And, the eventual CWS Bottom Half:

  • #3 Georgia cruised to the regional title, giving up just five runs in three games. They are as advertised, and are now the CWS title favorites.
  • #14 Mississippi State scored 39 runs in three games, blasting their way to the super regional.
  • #11 Oregon got to beat a couple of their old Pac-10 teammates en route to the regional title.
  • #6 Texas advanced in their own regional without having to deal with UCSB ace Jackson Flora, who they indeed saved for an anticipated winner’s bracket game two. Unfortunately, UCSB’s pitchers not named Flora pooped the bed against little-known Tarlton State and thus Flora was wasted on hapless Holy Cross, who he crushed for his final collegiate start. Quick: can you name where Tarlton State is, or what conference they play in?
  • #7 Alabama wasn’t too troubled in its regional win, beating all three of its opponents on the way to the title.
  • #10 Florida State hosted a crazy regional where the two lower seeds both won on opening day. Coastal Carolina had saved their ace Cameron Flukey for game 2, but a huge weather delay cut short his outing to just 3 1/3, wasting his final college start. FSU survived, but couldn’t overcome St. Johns of all teams, who wins as a #4 seed.
  • #15 Kansas. Bravo to Kansas, who nearly everyone thought would lose to Arkansas in this regional. Instead, Kansas beat them twice to move on.
  • #2 Georgia Tech scored 22 in its opener and topped #2 seed Oklahoma to take over the regional, but the Sooners had other plans, beating them late Sunday and then getting a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 10th to eliminate the #2 overall seed. Here’s the video; its at the 4:30 mark. He pulverized it to straight away cf, 390 and a 20 foot fence. Phew.

Thus, your Super Regionals are (with the presumed host listed first):

  • #16 West Virginia v Cal Poly
  • Troy v Arkansas Little Rock: one of these two teams will be in Omaha. Amazing.
  • #5 North Carolina v Southern California
  • #4 Auburn vs Ole Miss
  • #3 Georgia vs #14 Mississippi State
  • #6 Texas vs #11 Oregon
  • #7 Alabama vs St. Johns
  • #15 Kansas vs Oklahoma

Stats/Observations of the 16 regionals.

  • 9 out of 16: Seeds/Hosts to advance, but the two top seeds (UCLA and Georgia Tech) are out.
  • 6 regionals went to Monday extra game; lots of close regionals this year.
  • Conference Breakdown of the 16 advancers:
    • SEC: 7 advancing (12 made the tourney)
    • Big12: 2 advancing (West Virginia, Kansas)
    • Big10: 2 advancing (Oregon and USC, both former Pac12)
    • ACC: Just 1 UNC (of the 9 teams that made the tourney, a pretty awful showing)
    • One each from Sun Belt, Big West, Ohio Valley, and Big East.
  • Seed breakdown of advances
    • #1 seeds/hosts: 9
    • #2 Seeds: 3 (Southern California, Ole Miss, Oklahoma)
    • #3 Seeds: 2 (Cal Poly and Troy)
    • #4 Seeds: 2 (Arkansas-Little Rock, St. Johns)

Super Regional Prospect Watch. Man, lots of top prospects are gone, many surprisingly so. In fact, there’s only one name here that’s even projected to be a top 15 pick; Alabama’s Lebron. So, not a lot of star power in the supers.

  • West Virginia v Cal Poly
  • Troy v Arkansas Little Rock
  • North Carolina v Southern California
  • Auburn vs Ole Miss: Auburn is led by 2B Chris Rembert, a late 1st rounder, while Ole Miss’ ace is Cade Townsend, also a late 1st rounder.
  • Georgia vs Mississippi State: Miss State’s Ace Reese is a late 1st round 3B prospect.
  • Texas vs Oregon
  • Alabama vs St. Johns: Alabama’s SS and leading hitter is Justin Lebron
  • Kansas vs Oklahoma

Super Regional predictions: Here’s what i think happens when these Regional champs meetup next weekend:

  • #16 West Virginia v Cal Poly; hard to see WVA losing.
  • Troy v Arkansas Little Rock: Troy is the better team, by far.
  • #5 North Carolina v Southern California: I’d like to think UNC can hold the line, but USC impressed.
  • #4 Auburn vs Ole Miss: they did not face each other in SEC play, but Auburn is the better team.
  • #3 Georgia vs #14 Mississippi State: Georgia swept Miss State on their field in conference play, beat them in the SEC tournament, and I see no reason to think they’ll lose this Super Regional. I think its safe to say that Georgia was the CWS favorite at the beginning of this tournament, given that they’re the best team in the best conference, but now without UCLA and Georgia Tech they’re easily the team to beat.
  • #6 Texas vs #11 Oregon; I favor the SEC team here, even if Oregon is good.
  • #7 Alabama vs St. Johns; this one may get ugly.
  • #15 Kansas vs Oklahoma; Kansas has been surprising teams all year, even if Oklahoma is more battle tested. I’ll go with OK.

Predicted CWS field: West Virginia, Troy, UNC, Auburn, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma

Written by Todd Boss

June 5th, 2026 at 8:21 am

Posted in College/CWS

May 2026 Temperature Check with Top Prospects

11 comments

Devin Fitz-Gerald is blasting his way up the system. Photo via Federal Baseball/Getty Images

Before we get too far away from June 1st … Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just May 2026 unless otherwise noted.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started so they don’t take into account fast starts from players like Fitz-Gerald or Cruz.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

  • #1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Slashed .342/.457/.526 for May, with 2 homers, 10sb. Yeah, that’ll do. That’s not bad for a kid who should be getting measured for his HS cap and gown right now. This team is not shy about promoting players; how long does he stay in Low-A? Temperature: red hot, imminent promotion candidate.
  • #2. Henry Ford, C AAA: He is still not hitting. He was off in April, and May wasn’t much better. .234/.372/.344. that’s not a ton of power, even for a catcher. Luckily Kiebert Ruiz has “remembered” how to hit at the MLB level so there’s not a ton of pressure. One has to wonder what the heck is going on here? We’re talking a significant prospect, well regarded across the industry. I wonder if he’s got a knock we don’t know about. Temperature: pretty cold
  • #3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 5/5 a month ago and he was “continuing his throwing progression” in Palm Beach. His return has now just been listed as “2026,” which could mean tomorrow or September. I don’t think anyone though this was a season long injury, and the loss of both Susana and Sykora for an entire season really is putting this franchise back. Temperature: on ice.
  • #4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
  • #5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: he made it back off the DL, still not entirely sure what the injury was, but he’s been really struggling. .180/.305/.280 for May. I wonder if he came back too soon from injury. Temperature: ice cold.
  • #6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Temperature: pretty cold.
  • #7 Seaver King, SS AAA: King continued his torrid start to the season, slashing .415/.475/.604 the first half of the month in AA before forcing the promotion. So far in AAA? .325/.378/.525. He also played at 2B recently (not that a SS can’t seamlessly move to 2B anyway, but still a notable signal) possibly indicating the team is thinking of bringing him up to play there instead of the Mendoza-line hitting Nunez.. Temperature: red hot; player of the year candidate.
  • #8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. but, he’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Nonetheless, its improvement. Still, the Nats are “losing” this trade right now. Temperature: warming up nicely.
  • #9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, High-A: he’s blowing up High-A; .287/.368/.634 for the month of May with 9 homers. He has a higher OPS than Petry. He’s playing about 50% at 2B, 25% at SS, and 25% at 3B. He’s a little undersized so it seems like 2B may be his destination, but with this kind of power I’ll take it. Temperature: Red Hot, POTY candidate.
  • #10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He hasn’t pitched since April 24th, hit the 7-day DL in early May and has sat there. It’s reportedly an oblique injury and is “not serious” but its been a while. At least its not a shoulder/elbow. Temperature: On Ice
  • #11 Ronny Cruz: SS High-A, Cruz blasted his way to High-A early … and has seen the league catch up to him in a big way. May slash line: .141/.200/.196. Was it too much, too soon? Could be. Temperature: Ice cold
  • #12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: came back to earth this month after a nice April. Slashed: .185/.368/.310. Lots of walks and strikeouts, not much else. If you’re going to whiff at this rate, you need to hit a ton of bombs. Temperature: pretty cold.
  • #13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry spent another month in High-A crushing the ball: .288/.355/.606. I just have to ask: why is he still in High-A? The guy playing 1B for Harrisburg (Sam Brown) is hitting .228 with almost no power, so it’s not like he’s blocked. This is a 2nd rounder from a major college program; it shouldn’t be long before he’s up. Temperature: Red hot still.
  • #14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: Improved slightly at the plate, still not playing how we want. .229/.339/.396for the month. He has shown his fielding versatility though, hitting 4 positions so far this year (2B,SS,3B,LF). Temperature: still cold.
  • #15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: May numbers improved slightly over April: .250/.337/.375. However the new knock is his defense: he’s made 9 errors in his 18 games played at 3B so far this season. That’s not good. Temperature: cool.
  • #16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He was adequate in May with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. But nothing special. Temperature: luke warm.
  • #17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: Kent blitzed through his first 3 AA starts in May, and earned a promotion to AAA. His first two AAA starts were a struggle, but his achieving AAA as a 2024 draftee is impressive. Temperature: Hot to earn the promotion.
  • #18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime had an ugly era/whip in Low-A for the month but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. As discussed extensively in the comments, If you can just throw it past everyone at the level you’re never going to develop alternate pitches. Temperature: hot.
  • #19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia was placed directly on the “Full Season” injured list on 5/29, with no passing through either the 7-day or 60-day. That’s not good, and indicates a serious arm injury. No word anywhere on what happened to him, even with AI scouring the internet for clues. Temperature: on ice.
  • #20: Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: Started May in Low-A with this ridiculous line: .483/.564/.897 and earned a promotion. In High-A so far? Not as great: 236/.323/.309. Hopefully he adjusts to th e level and returns to form. Temperature: hot.

Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

  • #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B continues to destroy AAA pitching: May slashline: .361/.431/.691. We’ve talked about him extensively. My take is simple: the “scouting reports” we’re getting on him make no sense, and you can’t leave someone in AAA who’s OPS is north of 1,100 forever.
  • #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA had an even bigger may OPS figure than Morales. We’ve struggled to score runs for years, now suddenly a bunch of randoms in the majors are leading the league in runs scored while guys are finally hitting in AAA. A weird season.

In AA:

  • #21 Sam Peterson is putting it together; in May: .297/.390/.554.
  • #30 Cayden Wallace continues to produce. May: .275/.333/.505

In High-A:

  • #40 Kevin Bazzell blasted the ball this month: .378/.472/.511 with 5 homers in 14 games played.
  • Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month! Just 41 Ks in 25 games. (In april it was 52 Ks in 21 games).

In Low-A:

  • #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr had a nice month. .323/.500/.508. I’ll take that from a SS.
  • Unranked Jack Moroknek put up another good month; .293/.397/.586. Second straight month mentioning him.

In FCL:

  • #47 Victor Hurtado, known more for his bonus figure than his production, had a nice month. .293/.397/
    .586

Written by Todd Boss

June 4th, 2026 at 9:34 am

Posted in Prospects

« Older Entries