Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Cavalli elbow is a huge blow for Nats

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Its been a busy month for me, and i’m only partially paying attention to Nats headlines. Earlier this week, I did notice/hear that Cade Cavalli had been pulled from a start with something related to an elbow, and while it didn’t register with me at the time, eventually the news came out.

Tommy John. Full tear. Out 12-18 months.

Gut-punch.

The Nationals’ starting pitching depth has really taken a beating in the last couple of years.

  • Strasburg: thirty IP in 3 years and zero faith that he’ll ever return.
  • Corbin has forgotten how to pitch.
  • Grey had an ERA > 5.00 and a FIP of nearly 6.00 in the majors.
  • Rutledge can’t get any one out in Low-A (and is laughably assigned to AA right now)
  • Henry had TOS, the same thing that may be ending Strasburg’s career.
  • Adon literally couldn’t get anyone out in the majors.
  • Carrillo couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and is now a AA reliever.
  • Irvin is back after TJ but is no where near resembling the 2nd round form he exhibited in College.
  • Denaburg returned after lenghly absences and is no longer considered even a top 30 prospect
  • Cate forgot how to pitch and was outrighted.
  • Romero finally crossed the imaginary line keeping him employed with the team with his latest transgression (not that he was considered a prospect anymore…)
  • Lara got lit up in Low A while eating pizza and burgers (anyone believe his listed weight of 180?)
  • … and now Cafalli is out for a while.

That’s your 2020 1st rounder, 2020 2nd rounder, 2019 1st rounder, 2018 1st rounder, 2018 2nd rounder, 2017 1st rounder, $60M in payroll, and a couple of significant prospects for whom we dumped Scherzer and Turner. In other words, that’s nearly every top draft pick for four years running, a massive chunk of your current payroll, and every arm we got in return for dumping two franchise players two years ago.

What a debacle.

The Nats have almost zero Arms in the upper minors pipeline at this point who you’d look at as an up and coming replacement. Why? Because multiple years of futility drafting arms has badly caught up with this team. Who sounds promising? 2022 2nd rounder Bennett hasn’t done anything to embarrass or hurt himself yet. that’s good. Parker continues to get people out despite having very little “stuff” as the scouting reports claim. Theophile showed some promise last year before getting promoted. Maybe Susana can amount to something, or Aldo Ramirez. But that’s the entire system. anyone in FCL or DSL is 5 years from making an impact.

It could be a dark, or expensive, 5 years for this team. Consider how many top end offensive prospects we have. If those guys come up and start really cranking … they by themselves can power the team to a 500 record. Kinda like what happened to this team between 2010 and 2011. The team went from 59 wins in 2009 to 69 wins in 2010 to a .500 record in 2011. We all know what happened then. So, unless this team can find more arms somewhere, they may be buying them on the open market to support what could be a pretty good hitting team in a few years.

We havn’t talked much yet about the 2023 draft, but I’ll bet you $1 right now we got back to an all-pitcher draft like we used to do. And that’ll start at the top, where there’s a couple of big-time SEC arms likely for the taking in Chase Dollander and Paul Skenes. Dollander was a 1-1 guy last year, but hasn’t been quite as impressive as Skenes: in 4 starts this year he’s 4-0, 48-4 K/BB and has given up just 8 hits in 24 innings. Ok, so those starts were against Western Michigan, Kansas State, Butler, and Samford, so not that impressive, but still against D1 hitters.

For 2023, maybe we’ll find some gold like we’ve done with Meneses. But man we could use some good news on the pitching front.

Written by Todd Boss

March 17th, 2023 at 2:17 pm

The Athletic Keith Law Nats top 20 Reaction

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Law likes Wood. huh huh. Photo via Fredericksburg

Next up during the best time of year (Prospect Season!) is Keith Law, who was a long-time ESPN prospect guy before pivoting to the Athletic, where he’s been their main guy for several years now.

Disclosure: of all the prospect writers, I like Law best. Therefore, i’m more likely to like where he ranks people.

Law is more ceiling oriented than floor; you’re more likely to find a random 18yr old than the 25yr old in AAA who hit .300 but who plays 2B/LF (ahem, Jake Alu). So, keep that in mind.

Here’s his top 20+ for the system.

Klaw RankLast NameFirst NamePosition2022 LevelYear Signed/DraftedAcquisitionBonsu
1WoodJamesOF (Corner)Low-A2021 2ndTrade2600000
2GreenElijahOF (CF)FCL2022 1stDraft6500000
3Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)High-A2020 1stTrade4300000
4CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)AAA2020 1stDraft3027000
5HouseBradySS/3BLow-A2021 1stDraft5000000
6SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)FCL2022 IFATrade1700000
7HenryColeRHP (Starter)AA2020 2ndDraft2000000
8VaqueroCristianOF (CF)XST2022 IFAIFA4900000
9De La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)Low-A2018 IFAIFA300000
10BennettJakeLHP (Starter)FCL2022 2ndDraft1734800
11IrvinJakeRHP (Starter)High-A2018 4thDraft550000
12RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)Low-A2019 1stDraft3450000
13CruzArmandoSSXST2021 IFAIFA3900000
14LaraAndryRHP (Starter)Low-A2019 IFAIFA1250000
15QuintanaRoismarOF (CF)XST2019 IFAIFA820000
16DownsJeter2BOO - AAA2017 1stWaivers1825000
17LileDaylenOF (CF)XST (TJ)2021 2ndDraft1750000
18WhiteT.J.OF (Corner)Low-A2021 5thDraft400000
19AluJake3BAA2019 24thDraft10000
20FerrerJoseLHP (Reliever)Low-A2017 IFAIFA?
21LipscombTrey3BLow-A2022 3rdDraft758500
22CarrilloGerardoRHP (Reliever)AA2016 IFATrade75000
23McKenzieJaredOF (CF)Low-A2022 5thDraft410500
24BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)High-A2020 NDFANDFA20000
25CoxBrennerOF (CF)FCL2022 4thDraft1000000
26ValeraLeonelSSOO - ??MLFA?
27SanchezJoseSSHigh-A2016 IFAIFA950000
28ThomasJohnathan???Draft?
29BakerDarren2BHigh-A2021 10thDraft146800
30RamirezAldoRHP (Starter)XST (inj)2018 IFATrade450000
31WardThadRHP (Starter)OO - AA2018 5thRule-5275000
,

And here’s some reactions

  • Same top 5 as everyone else.
  • But, he’s got Green above Hassell, which is kind of rare, and is indicative of ceiling based analysis. Law thinks both Wood and Greene could be special and ranks them accordingly.
  • Law is one of the few to keep Cole Henry in the top 10; he notes the TOS surgery, but also notes Henry’s command and raw stuff was #2 starter before the injury. We’ll just see what happens. We’re all hoping he returns at some semblance of his former self.
  • He’s high man on Jake Irvin, putting him at #11 just below Bennett at 10. Which makes perfect sense honestly, b/c they’re the same pitcher. Big body, control and off-speed guys who project to be 4th/5th starters. One’s a brand new draft pick, one was at AA last year. It’s just kind of mind boggling that one shop had Irvin at 35 and MLBpipeline didn’t even rank him in their top 30 last mid-season.
  • Oh my god, he has Rutledge ranked #12. Maybe my fan-boy love for Law is ending. He’s kind of iffy in his analysis, noting that Rutledge throws hard and maintains velocity, but doesn’t seem to have much RPMs or a third pitch. Hint to Nats Player Development: THAT MEANS HE’S A RELIEVER. Maybe 2023 is the year they realize that Rutledge can either be a shutdown 8th inning guy in the majors or a failing starter in High-A.
  • Waiver claim Jeter Downs at #16. Law makes a good point: the guy was in AAA before the Pandemic, had made AA by the time he was 21. So the talent is there somewhere. Though, the Nats aren’t exactly renown for fixing reclamation projects. So, we’ll see. Maybe he’s a change of scenery guy. But nobody else is this high on Downs.
  • He’s a little lower on White than others, but does note that the guy is super young. Law also points out the obvious; given the Nats prospect OF depth (five of our top 10 are outfielders), a guy like White probably is getting bumped to 1B sooner than later. Which mean’s he’s *really* gonna have to hit his way to the majors.
  • He actually mentions Alu at #19. I’m shocked.
  • The first shop to mention MLFA/NRI Leonel Valera in any capacity. It isn’t often you see a MLFA getting prospect buzz, but Law seems to like his tools.
  • Also the first pundit to mention Jose Sanchez, our SS/3B in High-A, in some time. This guy was once ranked as high as 8th in the system in 2019. Maybe he can regain his mojo.
  • His last honorable mention was our Rule-5 pickup Ward, ranking him roughly 30th when other shops have him in the teens.

Players Law is missing:

  • No mention of Mitchell Parker. I’m guessing he thinks Parker’s success is smoke and mirrors lefty with funky stuff. At some point Parker will hit a wall and stop getting guys out regularly; lets hope its in Washington and not Harrisburg.
  • No Cronin; no surprise there, since Cronin entered pro baseball as a reliever and Law doesn’t rate relievers as prospets.
  • No Evan Lee; i guess he really has to show us something health wise.
  • No mention of our Catcher depth Pineda or Millas. Probably not surprising.
  • No mention of anyone in our IFA class. Might be too early, or might be that we didn’t give out a $4M bonus this year.
  • Infante completely off the list; but that’s the same with all the other pundits too. Great 2nd rounder!
  • Lastly … no Antuna, though Law gives him special mention as having fallen so far.

Written by Todd Boss

February 6th, 2023 at 11:28 pm

Posted in Prospects

BA Handbook Nats top 30 Reaction

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Hassell is a top prospect and a major part of our future outfield. Photo via nbcsports

One of the big 4 of prospect rankings (BA, MLBpipeline, Fangraphs, and Keith Law) published their rankings this week, by way of their annual Handbook. Thanks to Luke Erickson who posted a 2-part post listing the names (part1 and part2). He also had his own reactions and thoughts.

Here’s the list from 1-30 for reference.

Last NameFirst NamePositionAcquisitionBonusBA Handbook rank
WoodJamesOF (Corner)2021 2nd26000001
Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)2020 1st43000002
GreenElijahOF (CF)2022 1st65000003
CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)2020 1st30270004
HouseBradySS/3B2021 1st50000005
VaqueroCristianOF (CF)2022 IFA49000006
SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)2022 IFA17000007
De La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)2018 IFA3000008
RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)2019 1st34500009
WhiteT.J.OF (Corner)2021 5th40000010
BennettJakeLHP (Starter)2022 2nd173480011
CruzArmandoSS2021 IFA390000012
HenryColeRHP (Starter)2020 2nd200000013
ParkerMitchellLHP (Starter)2020 5th10000014
LaraAndryRHP (Starter)2019 IFA125000015
WardThadRHP (Starter)2018 5th27500016
QuintanaRoismarOF (CF)2019 IFA82000017
CroninMattLHP (Reliever)2019 4th46450018
PinedaIsraelC2016 IFA45000019
FerrerJoseLHP (Reliever)2017 IFA?20
BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)2020 NDFA2000021
IrvinJakeRHP (Starter)2018 4th55000022
LeeEvanLHP (Starter)2018 15th12500023
LipscombTrey3B2022 3rd75850024
MillasDrewC2019 7th17000025
CarrilloGerardoRHP (Reliever)2016 IFA7500026
LileDaylenOF (CF)2021 2nd175000027
CateTimLHP (Starter)2018 2nd98620028
RamirezAldoRHP (Starter)2018 IFA45000029
FrizzellWill1B2021 8th17980030

And here’s my reactions. Note: the BA top 10 was previously published on 12/1/22 and nothing in the top 10 has changed. So, comments on the top 10 will sound familiar.

  • the top 8 are basically the same as anyone else’s top 8 for the system.
  • Hassell over Green, otherwise consistent with the last few rankings.
  • Rutledge at #9. I won’t go into it again. Relevant stats: 4th pro season, 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP as a 25yr old in Low-A. $3.45M draft bonus, 1st rounder in 2019, and now on the 40-man.
  • As Prospects1500 did, T.J. White bumped up all the way to #10.
  • Cole Henry down at #13. Fangraphs had him at #2 in July.
  • Mitchell Parker at #14, as compared to Prospects1500, which had him buried at #27, or MLBpipeline, which had him similarly buried in the off-season. I like the respect here.
  • Rule 5 pickup Thad Ward at #16 now in the system. An indictment for sure, as Erickson noted.
  • Matt Cronin at #18, when others have had him well below. Is a lefty reliever specialist a good prospect, or a fungible replacement level player?
  • Israel Pineda, at #19 in the system. After years of underperforming, he hit well at AA this year, moved to AAA briefly and was added to the 40-man. Is this the real deal?
  • Jake Irvin. #22 here, #35 at Prospects1500, and outside the top 30 at the last MLB ranking. I mean, I guess if you’re scouting the score line his AA line this year wasn’t great (4.79 ERA), but his WHIP was decent, his K/BB good, and after years away thanks to injury and Covid it was a promising season. Now he’s on the 40-man and he’s gonna get MLB starts this year. Is this a #22 prospect?
  • Evan Lee at #23, when he was outside the top 50 on prospect1500. I think this is a decent ranking for now until we see how his injury shakes out.
  • Trey Lipscomb at #24; well below the lofty #15 spot Prospcts1500 had him.
  • Tim Cate, still hanging in there at #28. Just can’t let him go can you?

outside the top 30:

  • Any of our 2023 IFA signings; i guess BA doesn’t start considering them until they start playing.
  • Jared McKenzie: mid 20s in other shops, outside our top 30. we’ll see how he does in 2023.
  • Brenner Cox: #11 on Prospects1500, outside BA’s top 30? This seems like a miss.
  • Samuel Infante: Our 2nd rounder just three years ago is nowhere to be found. Our sordid history of sh*tty 2nd round picks continues. Stop me when you hear a name you like: Bennett, Lile, Infante, Forfeited for Corbin, Cate, Crowe, Neuse, Stevenson & Perkins, Suarez who didn’t sign, Johansen, Renda, Forfeited for Werth signing, Solis, Koburnus, Hood, Smolinksi & Zimmermann. OK, that’s frigging going back to 2007 before we find a for-real impact 2nd rounder. That’s ridiculous!!!
  • Jake Alu: ok so we can rank Cate in the top 30, a guy who has basically ZERO chance of playing in the majors at this point, versus Alu, who we can almost guarantee is going to break camp with the MLB roster in 2023.
  • Hey, at least they didn’t rank Yasel Antuna.

Written by Todd Boss

January 27th, 2023 at 9:52 pm

Posted in Nats in General

Prospects1500 Nats top 50 drops – Analysis

8 comments

Wood #1 prospect per Prospects1500. Photo via MASN

Prospects1500.com is the most courageous prospect ranking shop out there, releasing top 50s every year when most other shop puts out lists with no more than 30 names.

We often talk about how prospects in the 20s are, for all intents and purposes, maxing out as lottery tickets or org guys, but Prospects1500 goes even further, ranking another 20 guys.

So, more to talk about.

First up, Here’s my master list of all Nats prospect rankings. This XLS has more than 200 pundit rankings of individual players in our system, dating back to 2004 believe it or not. Nearly 400 players have appeared on a prospect ranking list for our team in that period. This is one of the biggest resources i’ve managed to maintain and keep updated over the years, and it just keeps growing every time another prospect list is dropped. I find this xls fascinating if only for the discrepancies between shops in the way they rank players.

Back to Prospects1500: here’s their 2023 Top 50 list. Since this is not behind a paywall, I’ll post the full 50 here:

rankLast NameFirst NamePosition2022 Starting LevelDraft/IFA signing YearHow Acquired?Bonus if known
1WoodJamesOF (Corner)Low-A2021 2ndTrade2600000
2GreenElijahOF (CF)FCL2022 1stDraft6500000
3Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)High-A2020 1stTrade4300000
4CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)AAA2020 1stDraft3027000
5HouseBradySS/3BLow-A2021 1stDraft5000000
6VaqueroCristianOF (CF)XST2022 IFAIFA4900000
7SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)FCL2022 IFATrade1700000
8HenryColeRHP (Starter)AA2020 2ndDraft2000000
9De La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)Low-A2018 IFAIFA300000
10WhiteT.J.OF (Corner)Low-A2021 5thDraft400000
11CoxBrennerOF (CF)FCL2022 4thDraft1000000
12BennettJakeLHP (Starter)FCL2022 2ndDraft1734800
13LaraAndryRHP (Starter)Low-A2019 IFAIFA1250000
14BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)High-A2020 NDFANDFA20000
15LipscombTrey3BLow-A2022 3rdDraft758500
16CruzArmandoSSXST2021 IFAIFA3900000
17RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)Low-A2019 1stDraft3450000
18LileDaylenOF (CF)XST (TJ)2021 2ndDraft1750000
19AluJake3BAA2019 24thDraft10000
20QuintanaRoismarOF (CF)XST2019 IFAIFA820000
21McKenzieJaredOF (CF)Low-A2022 5thDraft410500
22FrizzellWill1BLow-A2021 8thDraft179800
23FerrerJoseLHP (Reliever)Low-A2017 IFAIFA?
24RamirezAldoRHP (Starter)XST (inj)2018 IFATrade450000
25CarrilloGerardoRHP (Reliever)AA2016 IFATrade75000
26WardThadRHP (Starter)OO – AA2018 5thRule-5275000
27ParkerMitchellLHP (Starter)High-A2020 5thDraft100000
28BoissiereBrandenOF (Corner)Low-A2021 3rdDraft600000
29TheophileRodneyRHP (Starter)Low-A2018 IFAIFA10000
30BakerDarren2BHigh-A2021 10thDraft146800
31InfanteSamuelSSLow-A2020 2ndDraft1000000
32PinedaIsraelCHigh-A2016 IFAIFA450000
33CroninMattLHP (Reliever)AA2019 4thDraft464500
34DownsJeter2BOO – AAA2017 1stWaivers1825000
35IrvinJakeRHP (Starter)High-A2018 4thDraft550000
36AntunaYaselSS/OF (Corner)High-A2016 IFAIFA3900000
37YoungJacobOF (CF)Low-A2021 7thDraft275000
38MillasDrewCXST (inj)2019 7thTrade170000
39ShumanSethRHP (Starter)High-A2019 6thTrade235000
40CabreraManuelSSearly2023 IFAIFA550000
41DenaburgMasonRHP (Starter)XST (TJ)2018 1stDraft3000000
42PolancoBryanRHP (Reliever)DSL2021 IFAIFA?
43EmilianiLeandro1BLow-A2017 IFAIFA?
44TroopAlexRHP (Reliever)AA2017 9thDraft185000
45MendozaDrew3BHigh-A2019 3rdDraft800000
46MarteDanielOF (CF)FCL2018 IFAIFA300000
47ArrudaJ.T.SSLow-A2019 11thDraft250000
48AcevedoAndyOFearly2023 IFAIFA1300000
49SolanoEdwinSSearly2023 IFAIFA1300000
50SotoElianOF/SSearly2023 IFAIFA425000

Here’s my reaction to the list, going down the rankings from #1 to #50.

  • This analysis includes more than just a ranking of 50 players; author Caleb Sanders also breaks the players down into tiers, includes some video, etc. He defines the Tiers as you’d expect; the top tier are expected to basically be All Stars (Wood and Green), the 2nd tier to be “solid MLB contributors” (Hassell, Cavalli, House, Vaquero), Tier 3s to have a reasonable expectation of making the Majors (every one ranked from 7 to 20).
  • So, with all due respect, it is way, way too early to be putting those kind of expectations specifically on Vaquero in particular. The Cuban showed very little in the DSL in 2022 based on the size of his signing bonus, his pedigree, his origins (Cuba), and the fact that he was 17 turning 18 at the end of the season in a league filled with younger players. I don’t have a problem ranking him where they do (6-7 range, right in line with everyone else), but claiming he’s got a high probability of making the majors right now seems to entirely be based on is signing bonus of $4.9M. Call me when Armando Cruz ($3.9M) or Yasel Antuna ($3.9M) pans out.
  • No quibbling with their top 6-7 players; same 6-7 that everyone else has.
  • Cole Henry at #8. This is aspirational; if he’s healthy he’s probably top 5. Right now its a coin flip if he pitches at the same level again, maybe worse odds than that. I’d have him in the teens.
  • Huge bump up for TJ White, who comes in at #10 when other major shops had him in the deep 20s in their 2022 lists. We’ll see if other pundits agree when the “big” lists from MLB, BA, Klaw, and Fangraphs come out pre-2023.
  • Brenner Cox at #11. I dunno. Something screams Jakson Reetz to me about Cox; a prep player who gets bought out of a D1 commitment and wasn’t really on anyone’s prep radar. I need to see some production before buying in.
  • Love for Covid NDFA Zach Brzycky (scrabble score for his last name? 30 points!) at #14. That’s great; BA’s mid-season 2023 list didn’t even have him in their top 30. I thought he was crazy for signing for the pittance that he did after the 5 round Covid draft and I hope the team takes care of him.
  • Jackson Rutledge comes in at #17, which at least is a reasonable ranking for him as compared to fools who keep putting him in their top 10. But hey, now he’s on the 40man so i’m sure we’ll see him in the majors soon, even if he has an 8 ERA in High-A in June.
  • Jake Alu, given the #19 spot. He hasn’t seen a prospect ranking since Fangraphs’ August ranking. Alu is an excellent example of the difficulties of ranking prospects. He hit well in AAA but features as a low-ceiling MLB utility player; how do you rank that as a prospect evaluation? Is Alu a better or worse prospect than some 17yr old DSL kid who is 6 years and 5 levels away from where Alu is right now but has a higher theoretically “ceiling?” Either way, bravo to Alu and I hope he fares well in 2023.
  • First time we’ve seen Will Frizzell on any prospect list after his 2021 drafting. I mean, lets be honest, this dude is big (6’5″ 225) and destroyed Low-A pitching this year (.377/.426/.696). I suppose you’d expect that out of an SEC middle-of-the-order bat. He needs to get to higher levels and see if he can blast his way up. He’s positionally limited (1B/DH)
  • Aldo Ramirez getting dinged down a bit, as he should be given his injuries. He sits #24 here.
  • Gerardo Carrillo all the way down at #25. I’m liking this pundit; he’s not afraid to ding down players who don’t perform. What has Carrillo done at this point to have anyone think he has a shot of making the majors?
  • Newly acquired waiver claim Thad Ward comes in at #26. Sure. whatever.
  • #27 Mitchell Parker should be higher. All he’s done at every level is perform. Right now, who would you rather have on the mound in a must-win game, Parker at #27 or Rutledge at #17? How about Parker or Bennett at #12?
  • First time ranking ever for Rodney Theophile, coming in way down at #29 but giving some props for the $10k IFA signing who cleaned up in Low-A this year.
  • Another waiver claim in Jeter Downs sits at #34. sure, whatever.
  • It’s not going to be worthwhile to quibble too much about anyone ranked below #30. I will point out players who I think are too low, and then players who are missing at this point
  • Jake Irvin is higher than #35. I don’t get this ranking. I mean, the dude posted respectable numbers in AA and was put on the 40-man. Who’d you rather have, Irvin (#35) or Andry Lara at #13?
  • Yasel Antuna, ranked at #36. Where he should be. This is your reminder that the idiots at Baseball America ranked him #7 a month ago.
  • Four of our new IFA signings from a week ago are here: Manuel Cabrera, Andy Acevedo, Edwin Solano, and based on his last name apparently, Elian Soto. I find it somewhat interesting that Cabrera was the best ranked prospect of these players, but got a bonus that was a third of what Acevedo and Solano got.

Believe it or not, after 50 players, there’s some players who are missing from this list who I probably would have found room for.

  • Would you have put Evan Lee in here somewhere? I mean, he was in the majors last year. Now he’s not even worth ranking above a bunch of 16yr olds we just signed? He’s hurt, not dead.
  • Jackson Cluff hangs around as a defensive specialist; worth mentioning? There’s other plus-defenders out there who could turn things around with the bat: Jordy Barly, Donovan Casey, etc.
  • I guess we’ve completely given up on Tim Cate at this point. Drew Mendoza is still worth ranking but not Cate.
  • Tres Barrera: nowhere in the top 50.

All in all, a solid list.

Written by Todd Boss

January 21st, 2023 at 6:46 pm

Posted in Prospects

Are we sure this is the right Direction for 2023?

15 comments

Corey Dickerson, new Nats signing, from 2019, the last time he was good. Photo via wikipedia

Upon hearing the latest “1 year veteran FA lottery ticket” signing (Corey Dickerson), I paused to update the Big Board and slot in Dickerson into the starting lineup.

If the season opened today, here’s what we’re presumably putting out on the field:

CARuiz, Keibert#
1BSmith, Dominic*
2BGarcia, Luis*
SSAbrams, C.J.
3BCandelario, Jeimer#
CFDickerson, Corey*
CFRobles, Victor
RFThomas, Lane
DHMeneses, Joey

This lineup includes now three off-season signings in Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario, and now Dickerson. All of them are getting non-trivial money to come here, and all of them are going to start.

Here’s the thing. The team lost 107 games last year. We (arguably) had internal players to cover the three positions these guys are now projected to play.

Why exactly did we sign them, instead of playing our prospects??

So, instead of allowing Joey Meneses , who lest we forget hit 13 homers in 65 games last year en route to a 165 OPS+ figure, to play 1B primarily, we’ve bought Smith and guaranteed him the spot (2022 slash line for Smith: .194/.276/.284.

Instead of seeing if Carter Kieboom can actually hold onto the job at 3B, or (gasp) maybe give a shot to (arguably) the best minor league hitter we had last year in Jake Alu, we now get to watch some random guy named Candelario (2022 slash line: .217 .272 .361).

Instead of rolling the dice in LF with a guy like Alex Call (or even positionally-flexible Meneses or Alu) or newly signed Stone Garrett, or maybe even to continue to give ABs to Yadiel Hernandez (who had a 108 OPS+ last year at the position) … we get Dickerson, who is now on his 7th team at the age of 34, has zero history here, and is literally the definition of journeyman.

Is this what we really want as a fan-base? To have these positions filled by guys we couldn’t pick out of a lineup, instead of seeing if we have internal options that can grow into the positions?

What’s the goal in 2023? To only lose 106 games? Do we really care if we go 55-107 again? All our top prospects are babies, aged 19-20 and playing in the lower minors. It’s going to take several years for these guys to matriculate. We KNOW 2023 is a lost season already. The ownership is in flux, the damn MASN thing still remains unresolved, and we have $65M tied up in two starters who may never pitch again.

I mean, what’s next? Do we re-sign Nelson Cruz to paper over Meneses yet again and relegate him to the bench? What’s more valuable to the team: 4 months of a 1yr FA on the off-chance he has a decent summer and can be flipped for some low-A reliever at the trade deadline, or to see if guys like Kieboom, Alu, Garrett, heck maybe even Jeter Downs can compete?

Written by Todd Boss

January 11th, 2023 at 8:11 am

2023 MLB Draft Order Finalized with Eovaldi signing

9 comments

With the last Qualifying Offer-laden signing occurring yesterday (Nathan Eovaldi going to the profligate Texas Rangers, who have bought themselves an entire new rotation this offseason), the 2023 draft order is now complete. Major input to the top of the draft order was determined by the results of the Draft Lottery a few weeks back, and then with the announcement of this year’s free draft picks for cheap-skate teams Competitive Balance Picks.

The final 2023 Draft Order is now uploaded to this Google XLS. It shows the original 1st round order, the post-draft lottery order, all the picks gained and lost due to signings etc.

As it stands, the Nats picks are:

  • 1st round: #2 overall post lottery
  • 2nd round: #39 overall. this pick had the chance to slightly move up if one of the comp-A round teams decided to sign a FA … but the only one of them even thinking about competing in 2023 seems to be Seattle, who did not sign anyone.
  • 3rd round: #70. this pick moved up seven slots thanks to the eight teams who gave up their 2nd round picks to sign QO players.
  • 4th round: #99, from the original projected #107. Again, moved up 8 slots due to 8 lost 2nd rounders.
  • 5th round: #134; moved up 10 spots due to two additional lost comp picks from players re-signing as QO laden players.
  • 6th round: #161, moved up 3 more spots thanks to three teams (San Diego, Yankees, and Philadelphia) who gave up their 5th rounders.

No word yet on bonus pools, but the #2 overall team last year (Arizona) had more than $15M in total bonus pool and an $8.1M figure for its 2nd overall pick, which should net a couple of very good prospects. #2 overall was worth $8.1, while the #39 overall pick was worth a hair over $2M. So that’s what we can expect from the 2023 draft.

So, four picks in the top 100 for the 2023 draft.

Written by Todd Boss

December 28th, 2022 at 9:20 am

Posted in Draft

State of the Rotations at this point in the Off-Season

30 comments

So, the Nats have made some moves to theoretically shore up the rotations. I thought it was useful to take a quick gander at our starter depth and take a glance at what may happen.

Relying on the Big Board as always, lets do some thought exercises and think about the rotations for 2023 in all the full season teams.

MLB Projected Rotation

There are 11 Starters on the current 40-man roster, but only 5 rotation slots. But we also know we have serious injury concerns with some starters, some guys who are likely swingmen, some who are destined for A-ball.

  • Strasburg, if healthy
  • Corbin, if effective
  • Grey
  • Cavalli
  • Gore
  • Williams, newly acquired and apparently promised a rotation spot

My guess as to what happens is this: Strasburg is still hurt and goes on DL to start season, leaving us with the Corbin/Grey/Gore/Williams/Cavalli rotation (probably in that order). Now, both Cavalli and Gore had injury issues last season; if they cannot go, look for Ward, Espino, and Abbott to fill in (though honestly, Espino and Abbott’s splits as relievers were so much better than as starters that i’d look to keep them there).

This also assumes the team is going to continue to let Corbin pitch to a 7 ERA. I’m not sure they continue to do that forever; at some point, especially if someone presents coming out of AAA as worthy, we’ll see him either dumped to the pen or (more likely) released.

Now. Does the team seek out another starter to bolster this group? Only if they KNOW that there’s injury issues that likely lead to Grey/Cavalli/Gore starting on the DL, because otherwise they’re out of room. Lets say they bought another FA starter; who makes way? Not a healthy Strasburg or Corbin; that’s $60M of payroll. Not Williams. Not Grey; we didn’t trade for the guy to dump him in the bullpen. And certainly not Gore or Cavalli, who have nothing left to prove in AAA.

AAA Projected Rotation

Based on our current 40-man starters, their option status, and their capabilities, along with who we’ve signed as MLFAs (and assuming these guys don’t have opt-outs), here’s what our AAA rotation looks like right now:

  • Adon
  • Irvin
  • Alexy
  • Kilome (pretty sure he’s still with us as a 22 MLFA signing)
  • Henry (injured in 2022)
  • Tetreault (injured in 2022)
  • Lee (injured in 2022)
  • T.Romero (just resigned for 2023)

So. This being said: Henry had TOS is is out. Tetreault had a shoulder fracture and may or may not be out. Lee had a flexor sprain (often a precursor for Tommy John) and may not be reliable. So this may be thinner than we think.

Adon deserves to be in AAA. Irvin may not really “deserve” to be in AAA based on a 3.83 ERA in AA, but he’s on the 40-man and needs to be challenged. I’m pretty sure Kilome (a MLFA signing from LAST off-season but who is still listed as active and wasn’t on any MLFA lists) is here. That, plus newly signed MLFA Alexy and the re-signing of Romero makes five. But this is thin; the LR in AAA is Troop and his 2022 numbers were not good. I suspect we’ll be seeing a bunch more MLFA signings here, with perhaps Irvin being pushed back down to AA to start.

AA Projected Rotation

Here’s where things get thin, fast.

  • Cate
  • Reyes
  • Herrera
  • Parker
  • Shuman
  • Knowles

Cate at this point sounds like an innings eater in AA. Reyes and Herrera are long-serving org arms who also sound like Innings eaters in AA. If it was me, I’d be pushing up three starters out of High-A, all of whom pitched to really solid numbers in 2022. Parker posted a 2.88 ERA in 24 starts in High-A and absolutely will be in AA. Shuman hit the DL in July and never came off; the WP reported it was due to “elbow soreness.” Uh oh. Well, if he’s healthy he was solid in High-A in 2022, repeating the level, and has nothing left to prove there. Lastly you have Knowles, who had a 3.19 ERA as a swing man type with 13 starts. Why not.

If all these 6 are healthy, look for Reyes or Knowles to be a swing man type, maybe have Irvin duck into AA, or find another MLFA. I can’t see another High-A guy deserving of promotion.

Wow, this looks like a weak rotation for a AA team though.

High-A projected rotation

  • Rutledge
  • Cuevas
  • Theophile
  • Merrill?
  • Saenz (maybe a reliever/long man now)
  • Gausch?
  • Collins
  • Alvarez
  • Hernandez (injured all of 2022)
  • Dyson (injured all of 2022)
  • Denaburg maybe?

Here’s where things get harder to predict. Rutledge, newly added to the 40-man and owner of a 4.90 ERA in low-A last year (“but he improved in August!”) just has to be promoted. Cuevas and Theophile are holdovers from the 2022 rotation, looking to improve, and I’d guess they start in the rotation as well.

After that, its a crap shoot. Merrill and Saenz were both kicked out of the 2022 rotation after sucking. Do they get another shot or are they Relievers now? Gausch started the 2022 season as a AA starter, got lit up, then suddenly was a reliever in High-A. Does he return to the rotation? Collins was an already too old for the level swing guy with solid low-A numbers; he could be given a shot in the rotation. Alvarez had great K numbers, prompting his promotion to High-A, but he seems more like a bullpen guy as a lefty.

You have two formerly solid looking starters in Hernandez and Dyson who missed all of 2022 but who showed 2021 promise at the level; they should (if healthy) slide right back in. Lastly you have to look at the rest of low-A to see who should be moved up … and the pickings are slim. Denaburg at this point is too old for Low-A and its time to see if he can ever become anything; i’d move him to High-A and if he can’t cut it move him to the pen. Can’t make much of a case for anyone else out of last year’s Low-A rotation to move forward … which will make the Low-A rotation super easy.

Low-A Rotation

  • Susana
  • Bennett
  • Cornelio
  • Young?
  • Lara
  • Caceres
  • Atencio
  • Aldonis
  • Ramirez

We have to lead with Susana, who soon will be our best SP prospect once Cavalli graduates.

From there, I have to think at least the two top college Junior draftees from 2022 (2nd rounder Bennett and 7th rounder Cornelio) will be in low-A rotation. Perhaps even 11th rounder Luke Young.

After that, you have several holdovers from 2022 in Lara and Caceres. Lara is still ostensibly one of our better prospects and he’s super young, so he’s definitely starting. That’s six already, before talking about two guys who also were in the low-A rotation last year but who could get bumped to LR roles in Atencio and Aldonis.

Post publishing, KW in the comments reminded me about Aldo Ramirez, who we got from Boston in trade but who has been hurt. He was looking really solid for us in Low-A in 2021 before getting hurt and should start here in 2023 with an eye on moving up fast.


Did I forget anyone? What do you think; do we still need some reinforcements?

Written by Todd Boss

December 15th, 2022 at 2:41 pm

Nats acquire Ward in Rule-5

26 comments

Mar 26, 2021; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Thaddeus Ward (97) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As widely expected, given the fact that they nearly lost 110 games in 2022 and they have precious little in terms of starting pitching prospects right now (amazingly, given how pitcher heavy they’ve drafted prior to 2022), the Nats took advantage of having the #1 pick in the rule-5 draft to select a promising AA Pitcher from Boston named Thad Ward.

(somewhat surprisingly to this observer, the Nats did not select a second player in the Rule5, nor did any other team, despite having an open slot on our 40-man).

You can find plenty of content on Ward, given that he went 1-1 in this draft and prospect writers like the MLBpipeline and Fangraphs guys are starving for content right now. But I thought i’d pipe in here with some thoughts.

First off, Ward’s numbers in 2022 at AA were excellent: 7 starts, 2.43 ERA, 41/14 K/BB in 33.1 IP, 1.26 whip. He’s coming off of TJ so his numbers were limited. By way of comparison to the a couple of National’s AA starters of note in 2022:

  • Thad Ward: 2022 AA stats: 7 starts, 2.43 ERA, 41/14 K/BB in 33.1 IP, 1.26 whip
  • Jake Irvin, 2022 AA stats: 15 starts, 4.79 ERA, 78/20 K/BB in 73.1 IP, 1.17 whip
  • Cole Henry, 2022 AA stats: 7 starts, 0.76 ERA, 28/9 K/BB in 23.2 Ip, 0.59 whip
  • Evan Lee 2022 AA Stats: 7 starts, 3.60 ERA, 37/15 K/BB in 30 IP, 1.33 whip

So, interesting comparison side by side especially to Irvin and Lee; he’s got quite similar numbers to Lee, better numbers in fewer innings than Irvin. His scouting reports were excellent pre TJ injury, and it seemed like he was well on his way to Boston’s rotation before getting hurt.

So, where does he fit in? What can he do?

Right now, our SP depth looks something like this, in this order:

  1. Strasburg
  2. Corbin*
  3. Grey
  4. Gore
  5. Cavalli
  6. Ward
  7. Adon
  8. Irvin
  9. Rutledge

That’s it. We have guys like Espino, Abbott as Long Relievers/Spot Starters, but their reliever splits are so much better that this team desperately doesn’t want to give them starts.

So, of our depth:

  1. Strasburg: TOS recurrence, no guarantee he’ll be healthy in 2023
  2. Corbin*: He had a 6.31 ERA last year.
  3. Grey: 5.02 ERA, worse FIP last year and may not be as good as we think.
  4. Gore: ended the year hurt, never got off the DL post acquisition. Promising of course … but unproven at the MLB level
  5. Cavalli: one start, got lit up, hit the DL.
  6. Ward: coming off TJ, never been above AA, has to stay on MLB roster or be returned.
  7. Adon: 1-12 with an ERA north of 7.00 last year, needs to figure it out in AAA.
  8. Irvin: newly added to 40-man, needs to prove himself at AAA first.
  9. Rutledge: never pitched above A-ball

Not too promising.

Lets assume that Strasburg is still on the DL: that puts Ward right in line for the 5th starter spot right now. Is the team going to do more acquisitions to acquire depth? Perhaps. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Mike Rizzo buy a veteran starter on the cheap (say, 1yr/$10M guy), who slots in at #4 in the rotation and (if everyone is healthy) pushes Ward to the pen. That’s fine: he can work as an Espino/Abbott LR type. It’d be a waste to turn him into a reliever now, especially coming off TJ with a fragile elbow and the tendency to over-throw in shorter relief stints. But that’s the thing: who wants to bet me a dollar that more than one of the current projected top 5 starters isn’t hurt to open 2023? That’d put Ward right back in the rotation, even if we do a FA acquisition. Works for me; lets see what he can do.

All in all, a promising looking signing who looks to be a big part of 2023 for this team.

Written by Todd Boss

December 8th, 2022 at 10:14 am

Nats get #2 pick in Lottery!

9 comments

Honestly, I thought we were gonna get screwed.

Tonight’s draft lottery ended up giving us the #2 overall pick, out of a best case of #1 overall and worst case of #7 overall.

Final results:

1. Pirates (T-1)
2. Nationals (T-1)
3. Tigers (6)
4. Rangers (7)
5. Twins (13)
6. A’s (T-1)
7. Reds (4)
8. Royals (5)
9. Rockies (8)
10. Marlins (9)
11. Angels (10)
12. D-backs (11)
13. Cubs (12)
14. Red Sox (14)
15. White Sox (15)
16. Giants (16)
17. Orioles (17)
18. Brewers (18)

So Pittsburgh (which had the same chance as us to get 1-1) get the first pick, we get 2nd, then the Tigers move up a few slots, as does Texas. Oakland gets slightly screwed, dropping from #3 to #6, and the Reds/Royals both get pushed down a bit as well,

Meanwhile, Minnesota is the big lottery winner, going from #13 to #5, meaning they’re netting themselves a super good 1st rounder in 2023 after a decent season.

With the #2 overall pick, The Nats are nearly going to have their pick of the draft class. And, with the cheap-skate Pittsburgh team ahead of them, its highly likely they cut a deal with the player at 1-1 to spread money around, meaning we may very well endup with the best talent in the draft.

At this point, there’s a few names that are crystalizing for the top of the 2023 draft; here’s a quick snippet on some of them.

College guys:

Dylan Crews, OF/RF LSU. Opted out of 2020 draft as a projected 2nd rounder, now might go 1-1. Hit .362/.453/.663 as a freshman. Sept 2022 #1 player in the class.
Jacob Gonzalez, SS Ole Miss. Bonafide SS who hit .355/.443/.561 with 12 home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34) his freshman year. #1 prospect in class Dec 2021.
Chase Dollander, RHP Tennessee. 2nd team AA in 2022, mid 90sfb with good off-speed. Helium guy mid 2022, not sure why he’s jumped other candidates.
Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.

Prep guys:

Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS. Vanderbilt commit, lefty hitting OF prospect #1 prep player in the class as of mid 2021. Went 5-5 one day at Area codes. #1 prep player in draft per BA Sept 2022.
Walker Jenkins OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. 18U national team as underclassman in 2021. #1 HS player in class per Fangraphs Dec 2021, #2 prep in class per BA Sept 2022.
Thomas White, LHP Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass. Uncommitted. Highly polished LHP starter.
Dylan Cupp, SS Cedartown (Ga.) HS. Mississippi State commit. Top SS in draft.
Walter Ford, 3B/RHP Hoover (Ala.) HS. 2-way threat, mid-upper 90s on the fastball and great power. Alabama commit. 2021 18U National team as underclassman.

Imagine Gonzalez getting picked and joining our suite of top-end hitters in the middle minors, all set to matriculate at the same time? More of a hitter’s draft than pitcher’s draft right now, but there’s also some arms in the mix for 1-1. I don’t like Dollander as much honestly, i’d rather have a bigger arm with more of a clear shot at 1-1.

Written by Todd Boss

December 6th, 2022 at 9:39 pm

Posted in Draft

Baseball America 2023 Short List Released

23 comments

Rutledge continues to impress scouts with h is 4.90 ERA in low-A. photo via 3rdmanin.com

Hat tip to Luke Erickson and Nationalsprospects.com, because I had no idea that Baseball America had released its organizational top 10 list yesterday. This is incredibly irritating to me as a Baseball America subscriber; I somehow failed to get an email notification of this event, which means I missed the chat they held yesterday, which would have allowed me to ask the most obvious question, “Why in the hell would you still have Jackson Rutledge in your top 10??”

But, more on that later.

BA releases its top 10 in the fall, then works on its Prospect handbook for several months, and releases a full top 30 usually in Late Jan/Early Feb. So this is just a preview of what we’ll get in a few months.

Here’s the top 10, and in parentheses i’ve listed where BA had the player ranked in their last 2022 ranking (released on 8/10/22 after all draft and trade machinations).

  1. James Wood, OF (#3)
  2. Robert Hassell, OF (#2)
  3. Elijah Green, OF (#4)
  4. Cade Cavalli, RHP (#5)
  5. Brady House, SS (#6)
  6. Crithian Vaquero (#7)
  7. Jarlin Susana, RHP (#8)
  8. Jeremy De La Rosa, OF (#10)
  9. Jackson Rutledge, RHP (#9)
  10. T.J. White, OF (#29)

So, some comments.

  • Their #1 prospect in August was, of course, C.J. Abrams. It must have been published during the 24 hours that dude was at AAA before getting called back to the majors and losing his rookie eligibility.
  • In BA’s eyes, Wood did enough in a month at our Low-A post trade acquisition to jump over Hassell to be our #1 prospect. Its the first ranking i’ve seen with Wood at #1.
  • However, in all honesty, BA has the top 3 guys correct, and then the next two guys correct. A consistent top 5 with basically every other shop since these guys arrived in 2022.
  • Not too much to quibble about with Vaquero at #6, or Susana at #7. Prospects361 had Susana slightly higher, but this is in line with where MLBpipeline has these guys as well.
  • De la Rosa: he’s been in the 8-10 range in every ranking i’ve seen since the 2022 trade deadline.
  • I’ll jump over the elephant in the room to note that in the last two months, BA has decided that T.J. White has gone from a fringe, useless prospect (A guy in low A ranked #29 is not someone you’d expect to ever amount to anything), to our top 10. White’s low-A numbers: .258/.353/.432, 10 homers in 92 games and 329 ABs/382 PAs. But, wait for it … 104 strikeouts in those 382 PAs. 104! that’s more than 27% K rate. I mean, hell, for 27% K rate in the low minors i’d expect a homer at least every 20 PAs. But we got 10 homers in 382 PAs, or one homer every 38 PAs. that’s awful. That’s one homer a week. That’s 10 punch outs for every homer. That’s a lot.

So we get to Jackson Rutledge.

Rutledge, who had 20 starts in Low-A as a fourth year pro out of a Juco. A 1st rounder college draftee in his 4th pro season, still in Low-A b/c he has yet to prove he can cut it any higher. Rutledge, who pitched to a 4.90 ERA in 20 starts in low-A, with a 99/29 K/BB ratio (so, not even a K/inning!). 1.39 whip. Averaged less than 5 innings a start against a bunch of 20 and 21 yr olds.

Rutledge. This is a top 10 prospect in our system. Not Henry (who’s hurt yea but dude was still in AAA at the same damn age). Not Cruz or Lara, or Bennett or any of the 2022 draftees who immediately debuted at a higher level. Rutledge.

Some people were like, “oh he finished strong.” No he didn’t. His last 2 starts were the 4 ER in 5 IP variety.

He had 20 starts in Low-A: any guesses as to how many quality starts that comprised? Eight. He had 8 QS in 20 low-A starts this year. A guy with his pedigree should be dominating Low-A of course, but i mean, not even a 50% QS rate? That’s a pretty low bar.

And now he’s on the 40-man. Did he prove he had mastered Low-A in 2022? I don’t think so; if his bio started with anything else besides “1st round pick …” he’d be closer to a release than a promotion.

But here we are. Rant off.

Written by Todd Boss

December 1st, 2022 at 12:55 pm

Posted in Prospects