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2024 Rule-5 Player Analysis and Prediction

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Hassell should be a lock to protect. Photo via nbcsports

It’s that time of year. Its “Rule-5 time!”

We do it every year. Its our annual deep dive into our older prospects to see who the team may be thinking about protecting. Here’s links to past years posts on this topic: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010. And here’s a summary of all these posts and my predictions versus who we actually protected (which we’ll re-publish once 2024’s rule-5 draft occurs at the Winter Meetings in December).

Many people think rule-5 is a waste (ahem, Keith Law). For those of us who pore over minor league box scores, hoping to find a diamond in the rough of our 160+ minor leaguers who might some day be wearing red and white Nationals home jerseys, its a deep-dive into what might be for these players and an always-fun exercise looking at the fringes of our prospects.

As a reminder, Rule 5 eligibility is as follows for any player not on a 40-man roster:

  • Signed at 18-years-old or younger, has been in the organization for five seasons
  • Signed at 19-years-old or older, has been in the organization for four seasons

So, generally speaking this translates to for 2024:

  • IFAs or High Schoolers drafted/signed in 2020 or before
  • College players drafted/signed in 2021 or before

(I say generally speaking because there are some IFAs who get signed later in the year, or who might have turned 19 by the time they sign and turn Rule-5 one year earlier than we thought).

On the same day that all our MLFAs were declared (11/4/24), the team also cut loose four players off the 40-man roster to free up space for the eventual addition of players that we’ll be discussing here. As of this writing on 11/8/24, there’s 36/40 on the 40-man, so we have four available spots right now for Rule5 protection, waiver claims, Free agent signings, etc. That’s not to say we don’t have even more room if need be (you can make pretty easy arguments for the out-righting of at least 3-4 more players right now; the option-less Adon, the constantly-injured Henry, the underperforming Willingham, the curiously low leverage usage Rainey), but we’ll cross those bridges if/when we get there.

Important Links for Rule-5 consideration:

Here we go. There’s several categories of players to consider; we’ll go one by one.

Group 1: Newly Eligible 2021 draft College Players this year

  • There’s just one remaining College hitter from the 2021 draft who hasn’t already been released/retired (Frizzell, Williams, Fein) or made the 40-man roster (Young & Baker), and that’s mendoza-hitting Brandon Boissiere. Not a candidate.
  • We have a slew of college arms that we drafted in 2021 who are newly rule-5 eligible. Dustin Saenz is the highest round draft pick (4th) and has the most bonus money investment, but he got pounded in AA this year and isn’t a candidate. He’s in the AFL but has a near 6.00 ERA.
  • Marc Davis had great numbers this year, but mostly in low-A. He’s not going to be picked, but I do like him for the AA rotation in 2025.
  • Andrew Alvarez was our 2023 minor league pitcher of the year, continued to be effective in AA to start this year, and ended the year in the AAA rotation. He doesn’t have eye-popping numbers, but he’s a lefty who gets people out. Despite his iffy prospect status, he should be added to the 40-man if only for the fact that he’s lefty and can slot in a bunch of ways in a MLB staff.
  • Erik Tolman missed the entire season with injury; not a candidate.
  • Jack Sinclair was a pretty decent 8th/9th inning guy for AA all year and seems like the kind of prospect who turns into a sneaky good middle reliever for a MLB pen. A marginal candidate to protect. If he had more K/9 or bigger velocities he’d be a lock.
  • Brendan Collins: he was basically Jack Sinclair, but for Wilmington instead of Harrisburg. Better K/9 numbers, but more base-runners. A 25yr old in High-A all year tells you something; he’s not a candidate to be drafted.

Summary: Alvarez a near lock, Sinclair low-likelihood maybe

Group 1-A: 2021 NDFAs

  • Jarrett Gonzalez, who has had an interesting pro career, is technically rule-5 Eligible. We drafted him in 2016 out of HS: he went to college (New Mexico initially, then some Jucos), then five years later we signed him as a NDFA. In those subsequent four pro seasons, he’s gotten a grand total of 30 at bats. Total. Thirty. He essentially has served as a third catcher/bullpen catcher for his entire minor league career, bouncing on and off the Development list over and over (six times in 2024 alone). I’m not knocking him, since there’s a need for him in every organization. From a rule-5 perspective, obviously he’s not a candidate to get picked. I’ll bet the team keeps him around for more of the same; why not right? As long as Gonzalez doesn’t mind the travel and the pay, he gets to keep living the dream.
  • Peyton Glavine: famous name, huge injury issues. Basically missed the entirety of 2023 and 2024 with an arm issue. Would love to see what he’s got. not a candidate to get picked.
  • Tyler Schoff was a relatively effective 8th/9th inning guy in 2023, making it all the way to AAA for a last week call up. He had solid AA numbers in 2024, backing up Sinclair as the closer. Why didn’t he get moved up earlier in 2024? I don’t know; if Sinclair is a “marginal candidate” to get protected then so is Schoff. He’s the kind of guy who gets protected out of the blue b/c the team feels he is slated to contribute immediately. Interestingly, he’s NOT on the AFL roster, so maybe that’s a hint that he doesn’t get protected. I dunno.

Summary: Schoff low-likelihood maybe

Group 2: Newly Eligible 2020 High School-age drafted players under consideration for protection

  • The only HS kid we drafted in 2020 was Samuel Infante, who the team surprisingly released in July.
  • However, we have a major prospect in 2020 prep draftee Robert Hassell to protect. Despite his struggles since arriving from San Diego in the Soto trade, he’s far too valuable to leave exposed. he’s in the AFL now raking and raising SSS eyebrows, will start in AAA, next year, and could make a push for promotion soon. Maybe he’s just a 4th outfielder ceiling, maybe he’s the guy who pushes Jacob Young for a starting CF spot.

Summary: Hassell a lock to be protected.

Group 3: Newly Eligible 2020 signed IFAs under consideration for protection

  • So, technically thanks to Covid there was no official 2020 IFA class. As far as I can tell, we did end up signing three guys in the 2020 calendar year, but we’ve since released all three (Raynel Moron, Edward De La Cruz, and Luis German).

Summary: no candidates

Group 4: Rule-5 Eligible Drafted/Domestic hold-overs of note from prior years

  • Here’s where it gets a little busy. We have a slew of hold-overs from prior rule5 draft eligibility. I’ll run through them by Draft year:
  • 2020 Draft: Brad Lindsly is basically a 3rd catcher ceiling, while Holden Powell was injured most of 2024 and has not produced per his college closer UCLA pedigree. The lesson as always is: don’t draft guys who are already relievers.
  • 2020 NDFAs: Paul Witt has hung around for years due to his ability to play multiple positions, but hit just .198 last year.
  • 2019 Draft Hitters: Jake Alu, Jackson Cluff, JT Arruda, and Jack Dunn are all almost the identical player at this point: AAA or AA org guy middle infielders who can play the dirt but not hit well enough to be in serious consideration for the big club.
  • CJ Stubbs was a 19D that we signed as a 2024MLFA and I think technically he’s Rule-5 eligible but he isn’t really a candidate to get picked despite being a AAA catcher.
  • Chase Solesky, like Stubbs, was a 19D and 2024MLFA who had a nice run in the AA rotation this year (3.02 ERA as a AA starter) and who has been impressing in the AFL (20/1 K/BB in 13 innings as of this writing). His ERA looked good this year, but his K/9 did not (which doesn’t make sense given his strikeout performance so far in AFL). Do you look at this SSS in Arizona and say, “this guy is worth protecting?” Maybe. Or do you look at this guy and go, “ok he’s a 27yr old in AA, this is who he is” and pass? Probably the latter.
  • Seth Shuman was a 19D acquired in trade who’s always been a favorite of mine. He’s always had decent numbers, missed all of 2023 with injury, and ended 2024 in AA’s rotation. I think he could be a dark-horse starter prospect who moves up in 2025, but he’s not a rule5 candidate.
  • Matt Cronin is in the AFL and had some seriously weird usage this year. Despite unbelievably good numbers, he was left in High-A for months before getting promoted up to AA for the end of the season (reminder; he spent all of 2023 in AAA before getting hurt). He’s a lefty with a live arm who’s now in the AFL (but hasn’t appeared?) and that designation likely means he’s bound for the 40-man. This is the same team that protected Evan Lee in 2021 after an almost identical set of circumstances: a lefty who blew up K/9 rates and then impressed in the AFL.
  • Garvin Alston, a 19D who we got in a 2022 Trade and who made it to AAA as a loogy this year. He didn’t have the best 2024 numbers, but is a lefty reliever. Not really a candidate.
  • Other 2019 Pitchers: Tyler Yankowski was hurt all year. Todd Peterson, and Lucas Knowles worked the AA bullpen this year with decent but not impressive results. Knowles has some starting experience but seems to present more like a rubber-armed lefty swing man (kind of like Alvarez-light). If he had presented in AAA maybe.
  • Michael Cuevas is only 23 and was in the AA rotation to start the season, but pitched his way out of the rotation. I like that he’s in AA at 23, but I don’t like his bloated ERA. He got sent to the AFL but doesn’t seem to have any appearances, so who knows. If he’s knowingly hurt, there’s no way he gets picked. I don’t think he was a candidate even before getting sent to Salt River.
  • 2018 and previous draft classes: with the MLFA declarations last week, the SOLE remaining player on our roster from 2018 or earlier is now 40-man/rotation stalwart Jake Irvin. Every other 2018 or earlier drafted player is now gone. For basically the entire history of this franchise, one of two men held the title of, “longest tenured player” and it was either Zimmerman or Strasburg … now its Irvin.

Summary: Cronin decent likelihood, Solesky low likelihood.

Group 5: IFAs: 2019 and older

  • We have a slew of them. I’ll only mention those that have gotten out of DSL/Rookie ball.
  • Andry Lara. Lock to be added. Ace of AA at age 21, easy arm action, made huge strides this year. He’s part of a group of very young arms in our system that could pave the way for a new generation in our rotation (along with Sykora, Susana, and Clemmey)
  • Kevin Made was acquired in trade and is a decent prospect; he’s a glove-first AA shortstop. Would someone take a flier on him like we did with Nunez? I don’t think he’s enough of a highly ranked prospect to do so.
  • Roismar Quintana was a fringe prospect for us for a while but seems like he’s stuck as a position-less corner OF/1B type without enough power to make a difference. He’s not a candidate.
  • Kelvin Diaz was an 19IFA who we got as a 24MLFA and who hit 180 in Low-A. Not a candidate.
  • Miguel Gomez worked his way into being an 8th/9th inning guy at Wilmington this year, with effective numbers. I know some prospect-hounds like him a lot. Promising, but not rule-5 worthy. You just don’t take A-ball relievers in Rule5.
  • We took Wander Arias last year in minor league rule-5 phase and he gave us a solid year in the High-A pen, but he was repeating the level from 2023. Not a candidate.
  • Pablo Aldonis was on the low-A 60-day DL all year. As was Juan Abreu. As was Franklin Marquez. Not candidates.
  • We have a slew of 2018IFA signings who should have been 6yr MLFAs but who were not on the BA list, nor who appear to have been declared FA. Maybe they were extra young and get another year, These guys might be MLFAs right now, or maybe we re-signed them for 2025. Nonetheless, Jose Colmenares, Yoander Rivero, Jeremy De La Rosa, Jose Atencio, Johan Otanez, Bryan Sanchez, and Samuel Vazquez all count here. De la Rosa used to have prospect buzz but is now a AA backup. Atencio had a solid year in the High-A rotation and is a name I’d like to see in AA for 2025, but that’s not Rule5 worthy.
  • And, believe it or not we still have some 2017 and 2016 IFAs hanging around: Viandel Pena, Bryan Caceres, Daison Acosta. Caceres was in the High-A rotation all year but wasn’t great, Pena is a backup middle infielder, and Acosta put up solid AAA numbers for us after being a 2023 minor league rule5 pick. As with the 2018IFAs, these guys might actually be MLFAs but the milb.com player pages don’t indicate it as of this writing.

Summary: Lara a lock. Made unlikely. Atencio unlikely, Acosta unlikely. Others no.


So, where does that leave us? Summarizing the Groups:

  • Group 1 Protection Candidates: Alvarez near lock, Sinclair maybe
  • Group 1A Protection Candidates: Schoff maybe
  • Group 2 Protection Candidates: Hassell a lock.
  • Group 3 Protection Candidates: None
  • Group 4 Protection Candidates: Cronin maybe, Solesky unlikely.
  • Group 5 Protection Candidates: Lara a lock, Made, Atencio, Acosta unlikely

My Prediction: Team protects, in order of priority, Hassell, Lara, Cronin, Alvarez

Rule-5 results (post publishing): we’ll update this post once team announces its protection players.

Written by Todd Boss

November 12th, 2024 at 9:27 am

Posted in Prospects,Rule-5

MLFA Carnage in the Nats Farm System

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Kieboom set to leave the org as a 6year MLFA after hitting a AAA ceiling. Photo via Federal Baseball

A critical day in the off-season calendar of baseball every year happened earlier this week; five days after the end of the World Series (11/4/24) all “6-year minor league free agents” get cut loose. The Universal Player Contracts (UPCs) that players sign upon turning pro allow for six “renewals” before players must be either put on the 40-man roster or are declared free agents. This means that every player who:

  • was Drafted in 2018 or before
  • was an IFA signing in 2018 or before
  • was a 2024 MLFA signing
  • … and who didn’t sign a multi-year deal of some sort already this off-season or earlier this year

Is now a free agent.

Baseball America posted its list for all 30 teams here, but it’s missing a few names for our system. The Big Board for 2025 is now updated with all MLFA’s removed and put onto the 2025 Release tab.

I count 27 players cut loose, including these notable names to long-time Nats farm watchers:

  • Technically Meneses and Rucker were on the 40-man, were outrighted, and by virtue of their signing dates were immediately declared MLFAs.
  • Reid Schaller: 3rd round pick who just never was healthy. Had higher hopes for this guy.
  • Tim Cate: 2nd rounder who spent time on the 40-man but just couldn’t solve AAA.
  • Mason Denaburg: 1st rounder and one of our team’s biggest 1st round busts in terms of accomplishments. Stuck around for years after he should have been cut loose based on performance in a blatant example of the team not wanting to “waste” its signing bonus.
  • Carter Kieboom: 1st round pick, former top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who mystified the industry by not being able to convert fantastic batted-ball skills in AAA to the majors.
  • Israel Pineda; long considered an heir apparent catching prospect but who ended up bouncing around the minor leagues in 2024.
  • Trey Harris, trade bounty for Ehire Adrianza in 2022 but who never really did much for us.
  • Aldo Ramirez, trade bounty for Kyle Schwarber in 2021 and who was supposed to be a decent SP prospect. Blew out his arm, missed two years, never really pitched again. Too bad; Schwarber was a solid trade prospect and should have fetched something of value for us longer term.
  • Rodney Theophile, who looks like he could be a promising SP prospect (2.33 ERA in 9 AA starts to close out 2024). Surprised the team didn’t try to resign him before hitting MLFA.

As far as I can tell, the team has already done some re-signing of a few of its MLFAs; the following should be listed as FAs based on their draft/signing status but are still listed as active:

  • Daison Acosta: AAA Middle Reliever, a 2023 minor league rule-5 pickup but a 2016 IFA signing initially
  • Erick Mejia, AAA utility infielder, who was a 2022 MLFA signing/2012 IFA signing.
  • Viandel Pena High-A backup SS, a 2017 IFA signing but who is just 23.
  • Bryan Caceres, High-A starter who was a 2017 IFA signing out of Panama
  • Yoander Rivero, High-A backup middle infielder, also a 2017 IFA signing.
  • Jose Colmenares, Low-A backup Catcher (2018 IFA)
  • Jeremy De La Rosa, just promoted AA outfielder (2018 IFA)
  • Jose Atencio, High-A starter (2018 IFA)
  • Joan Otanez, Low-A middle reliever and 2018 IFA
  • Bryan Sanchez, also a Low-A middle reliever and 2018 IFA
  • Samuel Vasquez, High-A middle reliever and 2023 rule-5 guy
  • Kevin Dowdel, a 2024MLFA but a 2023NDFA so he probably falls under the UPC for a while despite being a MLFA.

I’m not a complete expert on the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I do find it interesting that many of these are 2018 IFAs: is there an additional year offered to these players b/c of Covid? Do they get an extra year of control b/c they were so young when they signed? Did all these 2018 IFAs not eve play in 2018 so therefore their UPC renewals started in 2019?

Furthermore, two minor league rule-5 guys seemingly should have been cut loose but who are still present; is there a different guideline for rule-5 pickups? Nonetheless, even if all of these players just simply signed new deals to stay with the club one more year, there’s definitely a few that i’m glad are still here. Acosta could be a decent lefty option for the MLB pen, De La Rosa was once a higher ranked prospect who is at least in AA, and Atencio was a very solid starter in Wilmington and i’d like to see where he goes.

The system/big board now shows 147 players under contract in the Minor leagues, including a complete gutting of the AAA pitching staff. Just five arms sit on the AAA roster right now; the rest were 40-man backups for MLFAs. We only have 11 relievers in total on the 40-man right now, which implies to me that we’ll be signing a slew of veteran relievers this off-season, and that we’ll have a cattle-call of 1yr/MLFA/NRIs this coming spring to make up the bulk of the AAA staff.

Written by Todd Boss

November 7th, 2024 at 10:21 am

Crews Has Arrived

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He’ll be wearing this uniform for good. Photo via Crews’ instagram page.

With a bit of advance fanfare (news leaked on Friday 8/23/24 for his 8/26/24 call-up), the cornerstone of the Nats rebuild Dylan Crews has been called up.

He’ll take his place in an outfield that started the year Winker/Rosario/Thomas and which is set to end it with the all-prospect, all-under 24, all pre-arb set of players Wood/Young/Crews. I didn’t think we’d get to this point until at least May of 2025, and honestly I thought a year ago it’d be Hassell instead of Young, but here we are.

Crews’ AAA line in total (.265/.340/.455) doesn’t really look that dominant, or that worthy of getting called up. Even his improved August numbers (.289/.356/.513) bely a bit of a patience problem (just 5 walks in 18 games). But, consider that Bryce Harper got called up with pretty middling AAA numbers (.243/.325/.365) and went on to win the NL ROY in 2012. Speaking of Rookie of the year, the timing of the call-up should be just enough to preserve Crew’s rookie status (150 PAs) for next year while getting him some big league looks as the team plays out the string.

And why not call him up now? Even if Alex Call hadn’t hurt his foot, it makes zero sense to play anyone else for extended periods of time in the OF at this point. Blankenhorn? We’ve already outrighted him once. Garrett? The fact that he remains on the 40-man but has been passed over multiple times for obvious outfield vacancies should tell us everything we need to know regarding the state of his career after last year’s gruesome leg injury, unfortunately. Meneses? Can he even play the outfield? Gallo? why is he even still on the team at this point? In the final game before his call-up, the Nats rolled Gallo out to start in RF and we got the most Gallo-esque performance possible: 4 PAs, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, and he now sports a season average of .165.

So, call him up, sell some tickets, let him get licked in meaningless games for a 4th place team playing out the string, and plan on 2025 come out firing with all our young guns in the lineup (Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, Young, etc).

Written by Todd Boss

August 26th, 2024 at 8:50 am

MLBPipeline Mid-season top 30 Update

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Jarlin Susana gets a well-deserved bump up in teh rankings. Photo Washington Post

The boys at MLBPipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, et al) have done a mid-season reshuffling of all 30 teams’ prospect lists, and the Nats system looks demonstrably different in the wake of the draft, trades, and over/under performance of some players.

This is a discussion of where the system stands as per one of the leading pundits in the game.

Below is the current top 30 (also online at this link, which is dynamic and shows the current status of the list at all times). I’ve added a new column that looks at the last few MLBpipeline top 30 releases, going back to the Mar 2024 initial list, to show the general range of where players have been the entire time as a comparison to where they are now.

Rank NowRanks Earlier 2024Last NameFirst NamePosition
11-2 alwaysCrewsDylanOF (CF)
23HouseBradySS/3B
310-13 rangeSykoraTravisRHP (Starter)
411-12 rangeSusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
5not yet draftedKingSeaverSS
6not yet acquiredClemmeyAlexLHP (Starter)
7not yet draftedDickersonLukeSS/CF
84-5 rangeCavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
94-5 rangeMoralesYohandy3B
10not yet draftedLomavitaCalebC
11not yet acquiredWallaceCayden3B
127-9 rangeLileDaylenOF (CF)
138-10 rangeHassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
14not yet draftedBazzellKevinC/3B
1513-15 rageHurtadoVictorOF
1620-24 rangeFelizAngel3B/SS
1727-30 rangeLaraAndryRHP (Starter)
1813-14 rangeBennettJakeLHP (Starter)
19not yet acquiredStuartTylerRHP (Starter)
20not yet acquiredRamirez Jr.RafaelSS
216-8 rangeGreenElijahOF (CF)
2218-20 rangeBrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)
239-10 rangeVaqueroCristianOF (CF)
24not yet draftedKentJacksonLHP (Starter)
2519-21 rangeMadeKevinSS
2628-30 rangeGrissomMarquisRHP (Reliever)
2715-16 rangeRutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)
2817-18 rangePinckneyAndrewOF (Corner)
2930+ rangeRibaltaOrlandoRHP (reliever)
3035+ rangeLordBradRHP (Starter)
30+29-30 rangeCoxBrennarOF (CF)
30+26-28 rangeCruzArmandoSS
30+25-28 rangeWhiteTJOF (Corner)
30+24-27 rangeSaenzDustinRHP (Starter)
30+22-25 rangeBakerDarren2B/OF
30+21-23 rangeHenryColeRHP (Starter)
30+23-26 rangeDe La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)

Here’s some thoughts on the current top 30 on this list, how they’ve risen/fallen, plus all the names who have appeared in MLBPipeline’s top 30 lists this year who are now pushed out, and then at the bottom a list of all the graduations. All stats listed are as of my looking them up and writing them here on 8/14/24.

  • With Wood’s graduation, Dylan Crews ascends to #1. He’s got an .814 OPS figure in AAA this year, which sounds good … but when you compare his 2024 to what his fellow top 5 college draftees are doing (Skenes; started ASG. Langford, destroyed minor league pitching and started the season in the majors) he almost seems like a disappointment right now. I think its slightly telling that the team has now called up four different hitters (Blankenhorn, Call, Tena, Chapparo) instead of Crews in the wake of trades and releases.
  • House Remains #2. He finally got pushed to AAA, where he’s got a sub-300 OBP figure. But, it’s also telling to remember he’s 21. If he had gone to college, he’d have just been drafted a month ago and would be sitting in XST.
  • Sykora and Susana now 3/4 in the system. And as they should be, based on their complete dominance this season. Sykora should have been promoted already with the numbers and accolades he’s got in the last month. Sykora even made his way onto the MLBpipeline top 100 for all the minors. Meanwhile, Susana is now #61 on ESPN/Kiley McDaniels top 100 for the entire minors. That’s pretty impressive.
  • Our big-3 round 2024 draftees (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) come in at #5, #7, and #10. Only a handful of our 2024 draftees have even made it out of XST (the above three plus Bazzell), and only King & Lomavita have been assigned to a real team for their pro debuts as of this writing.
  • Clemmey comes in at #6. Is this a little high? Perhaps. But it is telling that in his first pro season he went straight into the low-A rotation and has been there the entire time, with massive K/9 numbers and decent BAA, even if his ERA and WHIP show a lot of room for improvement.
  • Cavalli has slipped, from a consensus top 3 to now #8 on this list. I don’t blame them; A 12-month recovery has now been delayed by “dead arm” and “the flu” and perhaps next week we’ll hear that he has the bubonic plague and then maybe after that a mysterious soft tissue injury.
  • Morales is also slipping, though he was injured for a big chunk of this season. He’ll need another year at AA just to get his value back. Meanwhile, he’s being passed on the pecking order for 1B/DH types (since he’ll be completely blocked by House at 3B), and will need to bash his way up over the likes of Yepez, Chapparo, Meneses, Blankenhorn, and whichever veteran FA/Joey Gallo v2.0 we sign this off-season
  • Cayden Wallace at #11 just got dumped to the 60-day DL; per some googling, he has an Oblique Strain and has been out since first week of May. Does that sound like a long time for that injury? We’re at 3 months.
  • Lile, Hassell, and Hurtado are all treading water, being lower on the list than they were earlier but all due to initial placements above them pushing them down. Nothing to report here for now. These guys aren’t impressing or overly disappointing for now.
  • Angel Feliz has gotten bumped up decently, from the 20-24 range to #16 here. The 17yr old SS made the DSL all-star team and is slashing .308/.385/.449 this year. Wow, when was the last time we had a solid hitter matriculate out of the DSL? Luis Garcia? Juan Soto? It’s early, but after the sh*t show that was the 2023 IFA class, its refreshing to at least have a couple guys who look like they’ll move on. By the way, as far as I can tell the best hitter out of the 23IFA class right now is looking like Carlos Tavarez, a 1B/OF who had a .869 OPS figure in the FCL this year. Not one other 23IFA who even made it to the mainland had an OPS figure much above .600 (Marcano, Soto, Acevedo, Batista, Maricuto, and Arias).
  • Andry Lara now sits in the #17 spot, having moved up from the 27-30 range. Um; ok. He’s 21 and in AA, where he’s been for most of the year after dominating the first month of High-A. If he was playing by American rules he’d be sitting in XST right now. For me he’s a lot better prospect than #17. I think this is a top 10 prospect.
  • Green: significantly dropped to #21 from the 6-8 range, and before that even higher. We’ve debated Green for a while in this space. His stat line is comical this year: .198 BA and a ridiculous 171 Ks in 88 games. He’s repeating low-A. I agree with Keith Law’s take on Green, where he called out Green by name as a golden example of a player who NEEDED the former Short-A league that’s now gone. Instead he’s jumped straight to low-A and has had to stick there. I hope he can rebound, I really do, but his prospect rank is where it deserves to be for now.
  • Brzycky, Grissom, Ribalta: I just don’t see why RHP relievers are ranked as prospects. They come in at 22, 26, 30 on these rankings. They’re fungible, replaceable assets who generally are good one year (Rainey in 2020 and 2022, Weems in 2023) then awful the next (Rainey in 2021 and 2024, Weems in 2022 and then again in 2024). Ribalta just got called up; i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a 2.00 ERA this year and a 6.00 era next or vice versa. It’s like ranking backup middle infielders or 4th outfielders.
  • Pinckney has taken a fall in the rankings; his swing looked long and slow in spring training and it hasn’t really improved. 119 Ks in 108 games for just 6 homers isn’t going to cut it. I know a lot of readers here were super high on him coming out of Alabama, but he may have plateaued already. He may get pushed up to AAA at some point, but where does he fit in?
  • Lord coming in at #30. Not sure what else you want the guy to do; he’s the same draft as Tyler Stuart who is ranked 10 spots higher but is a level below him. If Lord was a 2nd rounder he’d be in the top 100 right now. He’s now been in the AAA rotation for nearly 2 months (8 starts) and he’s still holding a 3.27 ERA there.

Guys who were in the top 30 but who are now pushed out:

  • Brenner Cox: He’s getting a long run as a starter in low-A w/o the batting average to sustain it.
  • Armando Cruz: ranked solely b/c of his signing bonus for a while, he just got an undeserved promotion to High-A so that Seaver King could start in Fredericksburg.
  • TJ White remains in the 19-20 range for other pundits but is now outside top 30 for MLBpipeline. Not sure why some pundits still rate him; he’s hitting .202 as he repeats high-A.
  • Dustin Saenz: Seemed like a possible sneaky starter prospect like a Parker or Lord, but got hurt and has struggled in his return from the DL in AA.
  • Darren Baker: has played a solid season in AAA but has not gotten an opportunity since neither Vargas or Nunez has gotten hurt. Has been playing a ton of LF to give him some positional flexibility, but he remains a power-less slap hitter at a time when you need to have some power no matter where you play.
  • Cole Henry: what are we going to do with this guy? He was our #3 prospect for a while post draft, but just can’t seem to stay healthy.
  • Jeremy De La Rosa: was hopefully the last example of a ridiculous 40-man addition that this team will make, putting a guy on the roster who was in low-A and had zero chance of getting picked. He was dfa’d out outrighted in November 2023, which means we can’t ever outright him again. He played well to start the season in low-A, earned a promotion but hasn’t hit since. He got promoted to AA in July to fill the gaps left when Crews got bumped up and Hassell got hurt, but he didn’t deserve it. He’s continued to hit sub .200 since and probably should be back in A-Ball.

Anyone else worth mentioning?

  • Andrew Alvarez: i’m not sure they’ve ever ranked him, but he’s in the AAA rotation and faces an interesting Rule-5 dilemma this off-season.
  • Acevedo and Solano, our two $1.3M 2023IFA signings: nowhere to be seen.
  • Rodney Theophile and Michael Cuevas: youngsters in the AA rotation mix; I wonder if they can get some prospect love soon.
  • How about Jose Atencio, 22yr old doing well in High-A rotation?

Graduations from Mar 2024:

  • Trey Lipscomb: 29-32 range; has struggled in the majors, which fits given his prospect status. An infielder in the 20s would have a ceiling as a backup, and that seems to be where he is right now.
  • Jacob Young: 17-18 range: As is often discussed, he’s drastically outperforming his prospect ranking, and sits 2nd on the 2024 team in bWAR behind Abrams. It’s almost entirely on the strength of his defense though since he has an 85 OPS+ figure.
  • James Wood: 1-2 range: has not disappointed in his MLB debut; 134 OPS+ as of this writing.
  • Mitchell Parker: 20-22 range: has drastically outperformed his prospect status since arriving in the majors, which is being attributed to the Nats pitching staff. But he’s been out-performing his reputation his entire pro career.
  • DJ Herz: 12-14 range: He’s performing as I would have expected Parker to do, based on prospect reputation … 4.41 ERA, 91 ERA+. He probably needs more AAA time.
  • Note: I agree with those shops that stick by 50ip/150ABs versus service time for Rookie status, but the following three guys are “graduated” per service time.
  • Drew Millas: 18-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs): hitting well enough in AAA but didn’t hit at all when he spelled Riley Adams on the MLB roster. He’ll be #3 on our 3-catcher depth chart for the forseeable future.
  • Nasim Nunez: 19-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). I’m amazed he’s lasted this long based on his utter lack of any performance, and he’s done little to make me think he’s really even a prospect honestly. He’ll go to AAA and sit there for 3 years as a spare-part infielder.
  • Israel Pineda: 26-28 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). He’s much younger than Millas, but where has his bat gone? He hit .280 in 2022 in a AA call-up, but is now hitting .157 there two years on.

Written by Todd Boss

August 14th, 2024 at 12:47 pm

Posted in Prospects

2024 Draft and Trade Deadline Prospect Haul Impact on Farm System

18 comments

Seaver King should be the highest-ranked player we’ve picked up this month. Photo via opendorse

We’re now past both the 2024 Draft and the 2024 Trade Deadline. Lets summarize the draft results, the trade deadline deals, and then discuss the impact all these new players seem to have on our “top 30” ranks and perhaps on the team in the future.

2024 Draft Results. We signed 20 of our 21 picked players, only missing out on the 20th pick, who seemed to be picked as insurance in case our 2nd rounder Luke Dickerson failed to come to terms. Based on the immediate ranking adjustments, the following 2024 draftees will soon slot into our various top 30s in roughly the following spots:

  • 5-7 Range: #1 pick Seaver King, who probably starts at SS and 3B in High-A next year.
  • 7-10 Range: #1s pick Caleb Lomavita, who hopefully is catching full time at High-A next year.
  • 16-20 Range: #3 pick Kevin Bazzell, who probably gets some C cycles in High-A next year.
  • Low 20 range: #2 pick Luke Dickerson, who the Nats seem higher on than others. FCL next year.
  • 23-25 Range: #4 Pick Jackson Kent, who should be in the Low-A rotation next year.
  • 28-30 Range: #8 pick Sam Peterson, who BA slotted in at #29 right out of the gate. Low-A OF.

So, that’s 6 guys pushing the typical edge of the prospect list downwards. For Baseball America’s immediate impact analysis, the above 6 guys meant that #31-36 became Cruz, Nunez, Baker, Alvarez, Lord, and Brown. To give an idea of how the draft strengthens farm systems.

Expectations out of this lot? I’m hoping King turns into someone who can push Luis Garcia when the time is right and maybe Garcia’s pushing arbitration dollars. I’m hoping one of Lomavita or Bazzell makes a for-real push to the upper minors and bolsters our C depth. I’m hoping we get some found-gold in one or two of the starters we got. But, unlike the last couple of drafts, where our 1st rounder was supposed to be a bonafide future superstar, I’m just not that wow’ed by anyone in our draft this year. Maybe its b/c of the lack of brand name awareness this year. We know the pundits seem to really like this draft, so we just have to be patient.


Then, along came the trade Deadline. The Nats were able to move four of the really obvious guys on the trading block (Harvey, Winker, Thomas, and Floro). An ill-timed blow-up inning seems to have cost the team the shot at trading closer Finnegan, and of course what could have been our best trade chip in Trevor Williams blew any shot at a prospect haul when he strained his flexor tendon two months ago. Other FAs to be who also missed out at netting us prospects; Corbin (ha-ha), Gallo (hurt), and the crew of Robles/Rosario/Barnes/Senzel (all DFA’d/released due to under-performance before they could be flipped). The four guys we did trade netted us the following players (and the rough area the acquisitions will slot in from a prospect perspective):

  • 7-9 range: Cayden Wallace, 3B in AA, netted in Harvey trade. Also got the supplemental draft pick that turned into Lomavita
  • 15-17 range; Tyler Steward, RHP Starting pitcher in AA, netted in Winker trade.
  • 6-8 Range: Alex Clemmey, a 19yr old LHP Starting pitcher in Low-A netted in Thomas trade. High-risk/high-reward prospect.
  • 23-25 range: Rafael Ramirez, a 19yr old SS in Low-A, netted in Thomas trade. Another high risk/high-reward.
  • Outside top 30: Jose Tena, a 23yr old AAA 2B/3B with some MLB time. At one point he was near the Cleveland top 10, now has dropped back. He has great AAA numbers this year, better than a lot of our middle infield guys. So this isn’t a throw-in. He could legitimately push Vargas as a backup middle infield option.
  • Outside top 30: Andres Chapparo, a 25-yr old 1B/3B AAA guy who was a MLFA signing in the off-season. Acquired for Floro. Did we really just trade Floro for a month of a MLFA? I’d like to think we retain some control over Chapparo for more than the rest of 2024. He’s destroying AAA this year and is on his way to hitting 20+ homers for the 3rd straight year in the minors. Listed as 3B, but the guy is 5’11”, 200lbs, which screams out “immobile 1B or DH basher.” Plus we already have House, Kieboom, Dunn and a couple others sharing 3B in AAA.

So, that’s quite a haul. Probably 9-10 guys who will slot into our top 30s at either MLB, BA, or elsewhere picked up in the last month. Four of them project as top 10 guys, really helping to bolster the depth in this system. King remains the highest ranked of any of them, but you have to be excited to see what guys like Clemmey, Wallace, and Dickerson can do.

Expectations here? Well, I like the fact that we got two established AA guys. Last year we acquired a solid AA guy in Herz and now he’s in the majors; we could see the same thing out of Steward or Wallace in a year. I like that we got two AAA talents who can bolster that lineup. And I like the lottery tickets that slot into low-A because why not, and because Cleveland is one of those teams that doesn’t shy away from drafting and developing prep and DSL kids well.

One last tidbit. Our Trade partners this year were … odd. We traded with four teams:

  • Kansas City/Harvey: last trade was in 2021, a minor cash deal. Last time we did anything of substance in trade with KC was 2018.
  • New York Mets/Winker deal: last move with them was 2018, a minor cash deal. Before that was the random Jerry Blevins deal in 2015, who seemingly got moved because he took the Nats to arbitration over like $200k, beat the team, and was dealt a few weeks later.
  • Cleveland/Thomas: last move with them also was 2018, the Yan Gomes deal that turned out a lot better for us than it did them.
  • Arizona/Floro: we havn’t traded with Arizona since 2011, nearly the entire Rizzo tenure here.

So, interesting that we traded with teams we havn’t done business with in years. Who are the teams we’ve gone the longest without making a deal with? We havn’t traded with Colorado since 2009 (the Joe Biemel deal), We havn’t done business with Houston since 2007 (and even that was the swap of two minor leaguers), but the most hilarious one? We havn’t traded with Baltimore since 2001.

Written by Todd Boss

July 30th, 2024 at 11:31 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2024 Nats Draft Recap and Opinion

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Caleb Lomavita was our trade bounty for Hunter Harvey, a 1st round supplemental pick. Photo via MASN

Last post on the Draft, which i’ve spent far too much time on this week.

Now that we’re 21 picks in, and the data has been fully updated in the Draft Tracker, Here’s some breakdowns and thoughts on the 21 players we picked.

  • 19 College, 2 HS picks

As usual we loaded up on College players. The two HS picks were a 2nd rounder and a speculative pick on a 15th rounder, which again is pretty on-brand for our typical draft.

  • Of the 19 college: 16 were Soph/Jrs with eligibility, just 3 were “Senior Signs” or Grad students.

Compare this to last year, when we drafted eight college seniors. Now, perhaps this is a remnant of the Covid year working its way through the system (meaning, many of last year’s seniors were actually 3rd year eligible due to the lost 2020 season). However, we’ve drafted a ton of guys who still could go back to school if they don’t like the number. Top 10 rounds i’m not too worried, but a few of these mid-teen guys may pass (see below) for various reasons.

  • My guesses on over/under slot from top 10: 6 Under, 4 slot, 1 over.

The top 10 rounds are what really counts for over/under slot, and here’s pick by pick what I think happens:

  • 1st King. Slot $5.9M: I think he signs for less, like $1.5M less, since he projected mid-teens.
  • 1-S: Lomavita. Slot $2.3m: signs for slot, maybe a smidge more b/c he’s Boras client and of course he will get it, since Boras has extracted ridiculous $ from us for years.
  • 2nd Dickerson. Slot $2.1m: I think he goes overslot, like maybe $400-$500k over.
  • 3rd Bazzell. Slot $980k: I think he goes for slot, maybe a smidge more.
  • 4th Kent. Slot $676k: signs for slot or close to it.
  • 5th Diaz. Slot $490k: Underslot, by perhaps $200k
  • 6th Garcia. Slot $372k: underslot, by perhaps $100k
  • 7th Cranz. Slot $290k: slightly underslot by maybe $75k
  • 8th Peterson. Slot $230k: Sighs for slot
  • 9th Ross. Slot $198k: senior sign for $10k, saving $188k or so
  • 10th Johnson. Slot $185k. small college sign for $10k, saving $175k or so.

Honestly, I only see one obvious over-slot pick in the top 10 in Dickerson, and he’s already at $2.1M slot, so just giving him another few hundred thousand puts him into 1st round money, which should be what he needs to forgo college. Working the numbers above, I see savings of about $2.2M, giving $500k of it to Dickerson, leaving about $1.7M in overages for rounds 11-20. Which we’ll get to in a bit when talking sign-ability below.

  • 11 Pitchers, 10 position players overall
  • But, 7 position, 4 pitchers in top 10, and our first 4 picks were position players.

Good balance in the draft overall, but the top of this draft was entirely about hitters. Which is interesting, since we have not really focused on big-time arms at the top of the draft now for a few years running. To wit:

  • 2024 draft: 5 of the first 6 picks were position players.
  • 2023 draft: 6 of the first 7 picks were position players
  • 2022 draft: 5 of the first 6 picks were position players.
  • 2021 draft: 4 of the first 5 picks were position players.

Compare to

  • 2019 (4 of top 6 arms)
  • 2018 (6 of top 7 arms)
  • 2017 (9 of top 10 picks arms)

Is this a pivot in draft strategy for the franchise? It seems like it. For years Rizzo drafted a gazillion arms and used them as trade currency to acquire position players. Now it seems like the strategy is reversed, with the bulk of our prospect depth coming in bats. We have more top OF prospects than we know what to do with, and we face a pending OF log-jam (Wood, Young in bigs now, with Crews, Hassell, Lile coming soon, and guys like Green, Vaquero, Cox maybe in the distant future, and that’s before remembering we also have Thomas, Call, Garrett on the 40-man). Not to mention we have an All-Star SS, a 1st rounder at 3B in AAA, now another decent 3B prospect in AA, and we just drafted three SS/3B projected guys in the first 3 rounds of the 2024 draft.

As for Arms, we grabbed a slew of them in the teens, which has served the team well in previous drafts. We’ve picked up guys who have flown through the minors despite being drafted in the high teens, an amazing feat considering how difficult is has been for our 2nd rounders to amount to anything historically (a rant for another time).

  • Lots of positional flexibility in the guys we drafted

This seems to be a trend with the Nats, and the league in general. If you look at the guys we signed last off-season, they all had multi-position capabilities. Look at the position players we just picked up and you see a lot of the same:

  • King: played 4 positions for Wake this year (CF, SS, 3B, 2B)
  • Lomavita: Catcher only
  • Dickerson: Prep SS, but projects to be 2B, CF capable
  • Bazzell: played both C and 3B. If he can play 3B, he can play at least 1B and maybe 2B
  • Diaz: SS and 3B this year
  • Peterson: CF but can play all 3 OF positions
  • Ross played 1B, LF, RH this year.
  • Jones: HS C but projects to 1B/corner OF slugger
  • Banks: CF in college but can play all 3 OF positions.
  • Shelton: college SS but played 3B and can cover anywhere on the dirt

So that’s good.

  • Signability: Of the 11th-20th rounders: 6 look easily sign-able, 2 look like they’ll be tougher signs, 2 would need a lot more money

I’m going to assume that we sign all top 10 round picks, because that’s just what happens now. Nearly 99% of the picks in the top 10 rounds have signed since the slot bonus system went in place.

Here’s a quick summary of 11-20 and sign-ability:

  • 11th Beeker: Signable, maybe a little above $150k
  • 12th Meckley, signable for $150k
  • 13th Olson, signable for $150k or less even
  • 14th Tejeda, may be tougher to sign, in that he’s a RS soph with 2 years of eligibilty.
  • 15th Jones, may be tough to sign as a HS kid with a big name college commitment, but he’s also not a top 100 prep recruit. Maybe he signs if he gets a 7-figure bonus.
  • 16th Hughes: senior draftee, signable at $150k or less even.
  • 17th Bruni: signable
  • 18th Banks: signable
  • 19th Minckler: tough sign in that he just got an offer to go to ASU
  • 20th Shelton; intriguing over-slot discussion, see below.

Do we have enough money to get both Jones and Shelton? Maybe. If my above accounting is right, we might have about $1.7M in spare bonus money. BUT, that’s before we add in the 5% buffer, worth another $700k or so. So, that’s about $2.4M total. Could we get Shelton for $1.5M and Jones for $1M? That’d be roughly mid 2nd round money for Shelton and top of 3rd round money for Jones. Maybe, Maybe. That’d make for a heck of a successful draft if they could pull it off.

  • Regional breakdown of players:

This team for years has been super heavy in the southwest regions (Texas, Oklahoma). This year i see a bit of a departure.

  • West Coast: 2: one from AZ, one from CA (Lomavita, Kent)
  • Southeast: 6: 3 from FL, 1 from GA, 1 from SC, 1 from NC (Garcia, Tejada, Shelton, Olson, Meckley, King)
  • Southwest: 4: 1 from TX, 1 from OK, 1 from LA, 1 from MS (Bazzell, Cranz, Banks, Ross)
  • Northeast: 3: 1 from NJ, 1 from NY, 1 from MD (Dickerson, Johnson, Minckler)
  • Midwest: 6: 2 from OH, 2 from IN, 1 from IL, 1 from IA (Diaz, Peterson, Beeker, Jones, Hughes, Bruni)

So that’s interesting. that’s basically 9 players from “cold weather” states in the northeast and midwest. Just a couple from their typical heavy hunting grounds of TX and OK.

  • Conference breakdown of college players

Here’s a conference breakdown of the schools the 19 college draftees came from:

  • Pac12: 2 (Arizona and Cal)
  • ACC: 2 (Florida State, Wake Forest)
  • SEC: 2 (Florida, Ole Miss)
  • Big12 2 (Ok state, Texas Tech)
  • Big10: 2 (Iowa, Ohio State)
  • MEAC: 1 (Ball State)
  • SBC: 1 (Coastal Carolina)
  • Atlantic Sun: 1 (FGCU)
  • MVC: 1 (Indiana State)
  • Southern 1 (Mercer)
  • MAAC 1 (Niagara)
  • AAC 1 (Tulane)
  • Big East 1 (Xavier)
  • America East 1 (UMBC)

That’s a lot of players from a lot of pretty random baseball conferences. Remember; the entire CWS was from the ACC and the SEC.

Written by Todd Boss

July 18th, 2024 at 10:12 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2024 Draft Day Three Reaction

16 comments

Here’s a quick recap with some thoughts on day 3 of the 2024 MLB Draft, rounds 11-20

Reminder: Draft tracking Links

  • MLB Draft Tracker: updated for first 10 slots with all the info for our draftees plus Twitter accounts.
  • List of all Slot values for 2024
  • The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.

11th Round, 320 Overall: Merrett Beeker, a LHP starter Coll jr from Ball State.

11th rounders are generally where you’ll find interesting over-slot deals made, since there’s a flat $150k bonus structure for each player and there’s no “slot savings” for under-slot deals like there are for the back half of day 2. The Nats have signed a couple of above-slot 11th rounders in the past (Luke Young in 2022, JT Arruda in 2019 for example) and last year grabbed a Juco guy named Gavin Austin in the same gambit but couldn’t get him to sign (he was drafted in the 8th round this year by Pittsburgh).

That being said, this year we take Beeker, a LHP starter who was Ball State’s #2/Saturday starter this year and had some pretty intriguing numbers. He went 9-3 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.22 Whip, but he had 128 Ks in 81ip! that’s a 14 K/9 rate for a starter, which was good for #6 in the nation this year. The top 5 K/9 leaders ahead of him include 2 first rounders Hagen & Smith, plus 2nd rounder Brecht and 4th rounder Langevin, so that’s heady company. An interesting pick for sure, and not really one that looks like it needs an overslot deal.


12th round, 350 overall: Alexander Meckley, RHP college Junior starter/reliever from Coastal Carolina.

BA Ranked him #421 this year. Their scouting report: He was hit around a bit in his first 43 innings as a starter and reliever but has a big arm with a fastball that sits 93-94 and touches 97 with riding life from a high release point. Meckley has a four- and two-seam variation on his fastball and will spin a low-80s slider and upper-70s curveball with more depth.

This pick is interesting. Meckley started the year as CCU’s Friday night starter, and he started the year really well. He went 7ip and gave up 2hits in march against CWS team JMU. He held his own against early season opponents like Ball State, Indiana, and Michigan. Then suddenly he fell off a cliff, ending with a 2ip/8Run embarrassment against Wake Forest. At which point, CCU took him out of the rotation entirely. He ended the season with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.44 whip. He was a Juco transfer into Coastal, and in Juco his numbers were decent, so perhaps the team had a local area scout who remembered the guy. One has to think he’s relatively signable at the $150k slot here; if you get drafted the year after you put up an ERA in the 7s, you should probably take the money and give pro ball a try.


13th round, 380 overall: Bryant Olson, LHP reliever college junior from Mercer

Olson was Mercer’s closer for a while this season, finishing with 8 saves and some ugly stat lines. 6.41 ERA, 2.25 whip. 39/29 K/BB in 26 innings. Not much info out there on him, but a lefty with big K numbers could indicate a project the team is willing to work on.


14th round: 410 overall: Yoel Tejeda Jr. a draft-eligible Sophomore RHP from Florida State.

Tejeda is a massive (6’8″) guy, who transferred out of Florida and to Florida State for 2024. He got a couple of opener-starter gigs but was mostly in the bullpen for the FSU team. He got shelled in a game on May 26th against Duke, where he walked in a run and gave up a grand slam, and didn’t appear the rest of the season. The gamer from that game was blunt; calling his use an “experiment” that continued to go badly. His season numbers: 5.95 ERA in just 19ip, and more walks than strikeouts.

Why did he never pitch after May 26th? Injury? Or banishment to the bench? Either way, I wonder if he’s more likely to enter the transfer portal than he is to end his college career on this note. He turned down mid-teen money out of HS two years ago (he was drafted 18th round by Pittsburgh) and maybe he’ll do it again.

That makes four straight day-3 college arms. They’ve done so well in the past couple of drafts with this strategy (Sthele, Sullivan, Amaral last year, Lord and Luckham the year before, Alvarez in 2021…) that you can’t blame them for this strategy. Does anyone want to bet that one of these mid-teens college juniors won’t make a fast jump?


15th round: 440 overall: Sir Jamison Jones, a HS Catcher from St. Rita HS (IL)

BA ranked 372. Their report: Jones is one of the most physical players in the 2024 prep class and has tons of strength currently with a 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame. He can generate huge fly balls and has exciting power upside because of his massive strength, though he’ll need to refine his approach significantly and make more contact to fully tap into that raw power. His pitch recognition is inconsistent and he was also late against fastballs a bit too often. Jones has a big arm behind the plate, but he’ll need to work to stick behind the plate and might fit best as a first baseman. He’s a well below-average runner. Jones is committed to Oklahoma State.

I about spit out my drink when I saw this pick. A High School catcher in the 15th round? And, after doing the BA and PerfectGame research, apparently a good one. He’s been at all the showcase events, is one of the top ranked players coming out of Illinois, and he’s got a commitment to a big-time college in Oklahoma State.

Well, if you’re saving your pennies, this is where they could go. But a 6-3 225 guy screams 1B, not C, but he also seems like a project. Is he really signable here? He’s not a top 100 ranked guy, so we’re not talking millions to buy him out of Ok State, so I wonder what the angle here is.


16th round, 470 overall: Nolan Hughes, college senior LHP from Xavier

Hughes was played the first three years of his career at Fordham, then transferred to Xavier for 2024. He was mostly a bullpen guy, who got 4 starts on the year and faced some decent competition admirably. Season stats were mediocre until you see the K line. 4.33 ERA, 1.90 whip. 65/52 K/BB in 35ip. That is an astonishing 16.7 K/9 rate. He’s a big velocity lefty, can touch 98 with off-speed stuff that includes an 81mph sweeping curve and an 87mph changeup. That must look like an eephus pitch. Clean mechanics, looks solid in the little video snippets we can find. A project, but has some tools to work with.


17th round, 500 overall: Gavin Bruni, LHP starter from Ohio State

BA #384. Their scouting report: Bruni was an arm-strength lefthander who was already touching 96 mph in high school, but also had real control questions. Three years later and he’s still largely that sort of pitcher. A 6-foot-3, 205-pound starter, Bruni sits around 90 mph with his fastball and will run it up to 95-96 with above-average carry on the pitch but below-average command. He mixes in a slider around 80 and a curveball in the mid 70s that both have solid spin. He has a low-80s changeup that he rarely throws and isn’t likely to be a big piece of his arsenal moving forward without significant improvement. Bruni has been a full-time starter for Ohio State, but likely projects as a reliever in pro ball thanks to a career walk rate around 17%.

A weekend starter for Ohio State, which isn’t really that big of a baseball program. 6.19 ERA this season with not impressive peripherals. As the writeup says, he projects as a lefty reliever in pro ball, where he can sit more in the 95-96 range for an inning.


18th round: 530 overall. Teo Banks, OF (CF) college jr from Tulane.

Banks was Tulane’s CF and #2 hitter in the post-season; not sure if that’s where he played the whole season, but that’s where he ended it. Slash line for the year: .265/.380/.543 with some power and some speed. He’s a bigger dude, (6’2 205) so he might project as a corner in pro ball. I wish he had a better hit tool this year, but for what its worth he hit .301 as a sophomore and .317 as a freshman. He started part of freshman, all of sophomore and all of junior. He seems sign-able here.


19th round: 560 overall: Ryan Minckler, college junior RHP from Niagara University

Minckler served as kind of a long-man reliever for Niagara this year, 20 games, 50+ innings, with decent numbers. Initially went to UVA but never appeared, so he transferred and was in the Niagara rotation last year. Never seems to go more than 3-4 innings an appearance. Probably immediately projects to be a pro reliever.

His twitter has a pinned post from June 30th that says he’s transferring to Arizona State. He’s listed as a college junior but he redshirted his freshman year so technically he has two years of eligibility left, so me thinks he’s going to ASU and won’t sign. It’s not often you get to move to a major baseball program, in Arizona … which is about as far away a place from a college perspective as you can get from Niagara.


20th round: 590 overall: Colby Shelton, a SS/3B college junior from Florida

BA scouting report: Shelton had a standout freshman season with Alabama in 2023, when he led the club with 25 home runs en route to a second-team All-America selection. After the season, Shelton transferred to Florida, where he continued to show a powerful lefthanded bat. His production took a slight step backward in 2024, when he hit .256/.381/.573 with 20 home runs in 61 games. A 6-foot, 200-pound lefthanded hitter, Shelton is strong with all-fields power that comes with plenty of swing-and-miss. He sets up with a slightly crouched stance that includes a high handset and small leg lift, though he can be a bit rigid and stiff at times. His career strikeout rate sits in the 24-25% range, and he has contact questions versus all pitch types and an aggressive approach that leads to too many swings out of the zone. Because of Shelton’s back-to-back 20-homer seasons in the Southeastern Conference, some scouts think he will hit for enough impact to profile as a bat-first infielder. A shortstop now, Shelton profiles better at either third base or second base thanks to just OK actions and quickness. He can throw from multiple angles nicely and has enough arm strength for the left side of the infield. He is a fringe-average runner. He fits anywhere from round two to four.

So, this is the most interesting pick of the draft for this team. 20th rounder but MLB has him ranked #133 and BA has him all the way up at #64. Why did he fall? He was a 2nd team All American after the 2023 season, then left Alabama to go to Florida. He struggled this year: .254/.374/.551 but still hit 20 homers for one of the best teams in the land. In Florida’s final game, a loss to Texas A&M in Omaha, he played SS and batted cleanup. This is a big-time player. Can the team come with 3rd round money ($1M?) to sign him? Maybe; I can’t see an obvious massive over-slot guy anywhere else here, and I suspect they’re saving at least that amount off their 1st rounder.


We’ll do a draft class recap post later this week, summarizing.

Written by Todd Boss

July 17th, 2024 at 9:24 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2024 Draft Day Two Analysis

28 comments

Kevin Bazzell becomes our highest pick of day 2 and can play C or 3B.  Photo via Sports Illustrated

Here’s a quick recap with some thoughts on day 2 of the 2024 MLB Draft, rounds 3-10.

To recap, we picked a college SS/3B, then a college C, then a prep SS with our three day 1 picks.

Reminder: Draft tracking Links

  • MLB Draft Tracker: updated for first 10 slots with all the info for our draftees plus Twitter accounts.
  • List of all Slot values for 2024
  • The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.

Reminder: Draft Rankings

3rd Round, 79th Overall: Nats take Kevin Bazzell, a College Jr Catcher/3B from Texas Tech.

Ranks by major shops: BA=68, ESPN=59, MLBpipeline=55, Law=35, Fangraphs=63

So, we picked a college catcher in round 2 who was actually ranked BELOW the college catcher we drafted in round 3. Interesting. A couple of the pundits (Law included) really like Bazzell, giving him a 60 hit tool. A 60 hit tool behind the plate has aspirations to Joe Mauer, and (true to Nats form lately) Bazzell also played 3B a lot this year. Despite having mononucleosis earlier this spring he still slashed .306/.401/.473.

Makes me wonder if Lomavita was underslot and Bazzell is over slot?


4th round, 108 overall: Jackson Kent, a LHP starter college Jr from University of Arizona.

Ranks by major shops: BA=138, ESPN=144, MLBpipeline=136, Law=unranked, Fangraphs=unranked, P1500=170,

Finally, we get a pitcher for our pitching starved system, but somehow Kent seems underwhelming. A lefty who posted kind of middle of the road numbers this year (4.08 era, 1.28 whip, about a hit an inning, about a K an inning, .253 BAA) as Arizona’s Friday night starter/ace. His game log from 2024 was rather interesting: his first 11 starts were pristine; almost all quality starts or close to it, a bunch of 6ip-1r type affairs, then his last four starts he got hit hard; gave up 5 in 4 2/3 against Stanford, 5 in 6ip against Utah, 5 in 3IP against Oregon State, and then 7 in 5ip against Cal.

His late season slump was bad enough that Arizona, who was a regional host/top 16 seed, didn’t even use him in the post season as they went 2-and-out. Usually such a wild turnaround indicates injury, but none was reported. Nonetheless, the Jackson Kent of the first 11 starts (2.47 ERA) is obviously the guy we want.


5th round, 141 overall: Randal Diaz, a college Jr SS from Indiana State by way of Puerto Rico.

Ranks: not ranked by anyone

Very little to go on here, other than scouting the stat line. He looked great for a CWS team this year, slashing .360/.437/.632 as a middle infielder with 18 homers. He batted leadoff and played SS and definitely contributed in the CWS regional as they made the regional final before falling to Kentucky.

Is this an under-slot signing? Probably; there’s still top prospects on the board and he’s well off. But, I like what we see here as a sneaky productive possible under-slot player. Interestingly, he had entered the transfer portal after Indiana State’s coach left just after the season ended to take the South Florida job. This likely makes him that much more signable/amenable to go pro.


6th round: 170 overall: Davian Garcia, a college junior RHP from Florida gulf Coast.

Ranks: unranked by all shops

Another unranked draftee likely also means underslot deal. Delving into his numbers this year at FGCU, he started in the bullpen and rose to be their ace starter by season’s end. He ended the year with a 3.03 ERA, 1.21 whip, and 71/20 K/BB in 59IP. 98 on the gun, with good spin and off-speed metrics apparently. I don’t love his mechanics (super inverted W with shoulder subluxation) and he’s kind of wirey/undersized, which screams a) injury and b) reliever, but you can’t teach velocity.


7th round: 200 overall: Robert Cranz, college junior RHP reliever from Oklahoma State.

Ranks: unranked

Another round, another arm, which is good to see. And we return to fertile scouting ground for this team: Oklahoma colleges. Cranz worked out of Oklahoma State’s bullpen this year with stellar results: 1.63 ERA, 0.77 whip, a .153 BAA. Great looking stats. Prior to OK State, he pitched two years at Wichita State. Not much out there on him. He came out of Keller HS in the Houston area, a baseball factory.

Is he destined for the pen in pro ball? Not necessarily; this team turned Brad Lord from a senior sign college reliever into a starter in AAA in two years. It’s not like these guys forgot how to throw 6 innings.


8th round: 230 overall: Sam Petersen, OF College Junior from Iowa

Ranks by major shops: BA=184, ESPN=205, MLBpipeline=205, P1500=209

So, in the 8th they get a guy who fell a bit (was 5th round projection perhaps) who seems to be a speedy OF type with great pace and solid SB numbers. He was hurt most of this season, so I wonder what kind of signability he has here.


9th Round: 260 Overall: Jackson Ross, a 5th year senior/grad corner 1B/OF from Ole Miss

The first obvious senior sign/$10k bonus candidate is Jackson Ross, who started every game for the team and showed some positional flexibility. He played 1B, LF, RF and DH’d this year. He was a middle of the order bat for the team, showed some power, decent OBP. He played his first few years at Florida Atlantic. Should be a $10k or $20k signer and may provide some veteran leadership not unlike what Gavin Dugas has done so far.


10th round: 290 overall: Luke Johnson, a college senior RHP starter from UMBC

Johnson was a weekend starter for traditional baseball powerhouse UMBC this year. His numbers weren’t as great this year, but last year he had a sub 3.00 ERA. Interestingly, he’s the very first player from Maryland to get picked this year (and as it turned out, the SOLE player from Maryland for the draft), with a down year from the University of Maryland and no prep prospects to speak of.

With all due respect to Johnson, this is the epitome of a slot savings pick, and should sign for $10k or so.


Draft summary so far:

6 position, 4 arms. 2 college catchers, the rest SS and guys who can slot in at multiple positions. The arms don’t look half bad.

2 Obvious slot savings picks at 9 & 10, maybe a couple others in the 5-7th range. But who are they saving money for? Is the prep SS from New Jersey going to cost that much? Maybe they have their eye on an 11th rounder that will go 7-figures.

hate to say it, but i’m not really that impressed with this class. Maybe the Seaver King pick has disappointed me from getting excited here.

Written by Todd Boss

July 15th, 2024 at 5:42 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2024 Day One Draft Reaction – Seaver King!?

34 comments

Here’s my quick take on Nats Day 1 picks (1st, 1st-comp, and 2nd rounders)

First: Important Draft Links

  • MLB Draft Tracker
  • List of all Slot values for 2024
  • The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.

Also, Here’s all the main pundit Draft Ranks with Scouting Reports; here’s links to the leading pundits out there with their Draft Boards (not Mocks) which usually have click-through scouting reports.

I’ll use some of these links to show where each guy we pick landed on the various boards to indicate whether it was a reach or a steal.

1st Round, 10th Overall: Nats take Seaver King, a College Junior SS from Wake Forest.

Ranks by major shops: BA=17, ESPN=16, MLBpipeline=17, Law=17, Fangraphs=11. SportingNews=11. Others generally in the 17-19 range.

So, the Nats at #10 have Bryce Rainer AND Braden Montgomery on the board dropping to them after both being mocked as high as the top 5 all month, and they reach down past even where Yesevage was projecting to go to pick Seaver King, a D2 transfer to Wake who has been creeping up draft boards ever since he slashed .424/.479/.542 with wood on the Cape last year.

I’ll point out that Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure. To me, this smells like an under-slot deal (slot value for 1-10 is $5.9M) so that the team, who now owns the #39 and #44, might be able to save $1.5M or so (the difference between 10th overall and 17th overall, which is probably where he was expecting to go) and throw it at one of their next two picks to make it look like a mid-1st rounder.

Back to King: he played CF, SS, 3B, and 2B in that order this year, has positional flexibility, can absolutely hit both with metal and with wood (Slash line at Wake Forest this year: .308/.377/.577), has some speed and some power. I bet the Nats like him b/c he can play a bunch of different positions.

What do I think? I would rather have taken Montgomery. Maybe they were spooked by the injury. I wasn’t really on Tibbs as much as Moore (who went a couple picks earlier), and Yesevage would have been a reach (he went 20th overall). So. Lets see who they pick in the next two rounds.

1st round Comp round, #39 overall: Caleb Lomavita, a College Junior C from Cal-Berkeley.

Ranks by major shops: BA=18, ESPN=24, MLBpipeline=33, Law=46, Fangraphs=43. SportingNews=35

Interesting range of ranks from the shops, especially BA at #18 and Law at 46 as extremes.

So, three picks before ours, MLB’s best available included Brody Becht and Tommy White, both of whom got mid-1st round buzz throughout the spring. In fact, the very first mocks we saw all had White going to Nats at #10 under the guise of “Mike Rizzo loves the famous guys.” Well, White had a crummy spring, which knocked him down to being available at #39, and Becht got popped one pick beforehand, so the Nats went with the Catcher Lomavita. We don’t have a ton of depth at the position and there’s definitely concerns about Kiebert Ruiz right now despite the contract we gave him (he’s slashing .224/.260/.333 this year). We say it over and over; you don’t draft for need, but here’s the Nationals Catching depth chart right now:

  • MLB: Ruiz & Adams, neither of whom can hit
  • AAA: Millas, Lindsley (a 10k senior sign), Gonzalez (an NDFA who spends most of his time on the Dev list).
  • AA: Pineda (already outrighted), Vega (boucning around like an org guy), Stubbs (2024 MLFA)
  • High-A: Romero (hitting .168 this year), Suggs (an NDFA hitting .202), Diaz (2024 BA: .116).
  • Low-A: Colomenares (.197), Farmer (22 NDFA hitting .186), Rombach (just promoted from FCL)
  • Rookie: three 18yr olds from the DR
  • DSL: three 17yr olds we signed in January

So, yeah, we need catching depth. Badly. The scouting reports aren’t great, he’s undersized and has some mechanical issues, but he’s definitely a college catcher and will stay there. Maybe we put him at Low-A to start, move Rombach up since nobody at Wilmington can hit, and see what happens.

2nd round #44 overall: Luke Dickerson, Prep SS from Morris Knolls HS (NJ).

Ranks by major shops: BA=56, ESPN=77, MLBpipeline=49, Law=59, Fangraphs 100+. SportingNews=36

It’s possible some bonus dollars will go to buy Dickerson out of his UVA commitment, but they probably don’t need THAT much. The slot value is $2.1M. The pundits said he was getting 1st round buzz, and he was certainly a helium prospect this year. 6′ shortstop who is offense over defense, may project more like a 2B or a CF, but has serious athleticism. Not only is he a top baseball prospect, but he also helped his HS team win the state Ice Hockey championship this year. Interesting sport combo.

An interesting pick; not sure who was exactly available at this point who might have made more sense. A slew of college arms went right after him. One thing that seems to stand out is his positional flexibility; he’s an athlete enough to move around the dirt, or play the OF with his speed.


Day 1: A solid college SS, a college C, and a prep SS. We’re a long way from drafting pitcher after pitcher.

Written by Todd Boss

July 14th, 2024 at 10:48 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects

2024 Draft Coverage – Final Mocks and still a ton of questions

54 comments

Konnor Griffen seems more and more likely to end up a Nat. Photo via Mississippi Scoreboard

We’ve published a couple of Mock draft collections so far, and as we get closer to the draft we’re starting to see some solidification at the top. We’re now past the CWS, past the draft combine, and we’re getting close. These mocks run from late June all the way to the eve of the draft … where we got some decent consolidation of predictions.

We’re starting to see some new names slipping into the 8-10 range of this draft. We’ve gone from it being a “9-man draft” to a collection of 10-12 players who seem to be fitting. Those players are (in rough order of draft rank), with some commentary on each pick based on post-season performances:

  • Charlie Condon: 3B/OF, University of Georgia: monster regional, then wasn’t that impressive in the super regionals. Mostly 1-1 on boards, but CW is that he’ll go 1-2 or 1-3 so that Cleveland can save some money at the top.
  • Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State; so-so post-season doesn’t seem to be hurting his 1-1 chances, given that he’ll sign for a lot less than Condon.
  • Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP Florida; Just blew up at the plate all post-season, really impressed. Also solidified his lack of ability on the mound.
  • Nick Kurtz, 1B Wake Forest: almost no impact in the post-season.
  • Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M; broke his ankle in a weird running play, missing his team’s run to the final. Was top 5, now likely drops.
  • Hagen Smith, LHP starter, Arkansas: final start wasn’t great in the regionals.
  • Chase Burns, RHP starter, Wake Forest; got out-pitched by Yesevage in his last start, and now
  • J.J. Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia; poor regional but may sneak into top 5.
  • Konnor Griffin, SS/CF, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.); skipped MLB draft combine.
  • Bryce Rainer, SS from Harvard Westlake HS in LA: went to MLB draft combine, showed 96 on the mound, impressed as per reports.
  • James Tibbs, OF Florida State University: a couple of monster post-season games has him sneaking into the top 10 on some boards.
  • Trey Yesevage, RHP, East Carolina: out-pitched Burns in his post-season start, now creeping into the top 10 in some mocks.

If you’d like to see some scouting reports, go to one of these main spots:


Here’s the Mocks from Late June leading up to the draft.

  • MLBpipeline team 6/20/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take Griffen over Rainey.
  • Sporting News/Edward Suetan 6/20/24 Mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take Rainey over Griffen. quite similar mock to above MLBpipeline one; exact same top 5 in the same order.
  • MLBPipeline/Jim Callis 6/27/24 mock: Bazzana, Caglianone, Condon, Montgomery, Griffin (wow). Nats at #10 get Rainer. In this mock, Kurtz was on the board but the team still took the prep SS.
  • Baseball America/Carlos Collazo Mock v5.0 7/1/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Griffen over Kurtz and Tibbs.
  • CBSsports/Mike Axisa 7/3/24 mock: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at #10 get Montgomery, who falls with the injury and an early pick of Yesevage in his mock. They leave Griffen, Moore, Tibbs, and Kurtz on the table.
  • MLBpipeline/Mayo 7/5/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Caglianone, Montgomery, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 get Rainer.
  • ESPN Staff Mock 7/5/24: Condon, Bazzana, Caglianone, Smith, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take the power hitting Christian Moore 2B, Tennessee, over Rainer, which I don’t think is reasonable. I sense this “staff mock” is more about the staff guys doing a draft rankings versus the proclivities of what these teams would take. But, Moore, if the Nats take him, was a beast all year and, even though he’s 2B limited, could probably feature at 3B if he’s a 2B now. If he could hit in pros like he’s hit in college, look out.
  • Bleacherreport/Joel Reuter 7/7/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 go Yesevage. In this mock, the two prep SS both go high, as does Montgomery, so Nats take Yesevage over Moore, Kurtz, Tibbs.
  • The Athletic/Keith Law’s mock 3.0 7/10/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Kurtz, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Yesevage over Griffen.
  • Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock draft v1.0 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Griffen and Yesevage slips to #15.
  • MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Kurtz, Caglianone. Nats get Rainer, who isn’t taken earlier like in other mocks above us.
  • ESPN/Kiley McDaniel mock 3.0 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Caglianone, Condon, Bazzana, Griffen. Nats take Tibbs over Kurtz or Yesevage here, in a very weird mock with different names than most anyone else.
  • Sporting News/Eduard Sutelan mock 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at 10 get Rainer. In a fun one, they have 3 full rounds of mocks: they have Nats taking local guy Griff O’Ferrall, SS, Virginia in the 2nd and Sawyer Farr, SS, Boswell (TX) in the third. So that’d be 3 short stops in a row.
  • Baseball America Mock 6.0 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats take Kurtz as BPA after both prep SS gone, but still too early for Yesevage.
  • CBSsports/Mike Axisa 7/13/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Montgomery, Caglianone. Nats go Griffen after Rainer taken early, but Yesevage and Kurtz still on board. I’m not sure I agree with his order here, having Wetherholt falling out of top 5 and Montgomery going so high.
  • D1Baseball final mock 7/13/24: Wetherhold, Bazzana, Burns, Condon, Caglianone. nats take Montgomery after both prep SS are picked ahead. This does not seem credible; Condon is not falling out of the top 2.
  • BleacherReport/ Joel Reuter’s final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. nats at 10 take Yesevage over Griffen. I’d take this.
  • ESPN/KIley McDaniel mock 3.0 7/13/24: Wetherholt, Caglianone, Condon, Bazzana, Griffen. nats take Tibbs over Kurtz, Yesevage. Would be hard to believe this top 5 and this Nats pick happen.

I may have missed a couple, but there’s been so many in the last couple days its hard to keep up.


After all these Mocks, what do I think top 5 is?

I think the top 5 will go:

  1. Bazzana: I think Cleveland gets significant cost savings over what Condon wants by taking Bazzana here (probably $1M), which will let them buy a prep kid in the 3rd round who has slipped (similar to what we did with Sykora last year). They take Bazzana and his superior hit tool over Wetherholt and his health issues.
  2. Condon: he probably goes for near slot here ($9.7M). He won’t slip past here.
  3. Burns: Colorado can’t get FAs pitchers to come there, so they have to breed pitchers, so taking the best available arm makes sense here. Burns has slightly better stuff and less injury history than Smith.
  4. Any one of Wetherholt/Montgomery/Kurtz/Bazzana: Oakland is always a wild-card team in the draft and could pivot, but it seems like it’ll be one of these four guys depending on wh goes 1-1.
  5. Chicago: Caglianone. this seems like a lock.

So, 4 of the first 5 seem to be consensus, with only Oakland as a wildcard.

After all these Mocks, who do I think the Nats will take?

Its a draft like this where I honestly wish MLB teams could trade draft picks. Because I think the Nats might find themselves wanting a guy like Yesevage (or, ahem Tommy White) who might go later in the 1st round but if they pick him at 10 they’ll overpay. I mean, if they could trade down 3-4 picks, pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder, and then pick Yesevage … in an old-school NFL-style trade, wouldn’t you be for that? We can only wish.

That being said, I hate to say it, but i think we’ll end up with a prep SS and not a college player. It will either be Rainer or Griffen. It seems like it’ll be Griffen, since Rainey seems to be getting popped a bit earlier. If Montgomery falls due to his health, i’d be ecstatic. If Kurtz falls b/c he’s 1B only and the Nats take him, i’ll be upset. If they surprise and take Tibbs or Moore, I wouldn’t hate it. If Kurtz is there, and they take him versus Yesevage… i’ll be upset. If both Rainer and Griffen are off the board at #10, it means that someone like Kurtz or Montgomery is there for the taking.

If it was me? I’m taking Yesevage. I don’t care if he’s 13-14th on the board, i don’t care that he “only” pitched for ECU. He’s polished, healthy, no mechanical issues, 3 pitches, throws strikes, performed on the big stage at CWS playoffs. However all the pundits keep talking about how 1) the Nats new player evaluation staff is more prep friendly and 2) they scouted the hell out of Griffen and Rainer this year.

Written by Todd Boss

July 13th, 2024 at 2:18 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects