Marconi German on Signing day. Hard to find pictures of him since. Photo via deportes1223.
With the beginning of May begins the Florida Complex League (FCL) competition, and the release of the official Nats FCL roster for 2026. As I keep the Big Board, I often put players without clear assignments in the Extended Spring Training (XST) column, when really they probably were always on the FCL roster throughout the off-season, as teams play it loose with the 165 minor league domestic player limit. As I write this, the Big Board shows 159 players total on the non-60 day/non-Restricted lists for all 5 of our domestic minor league teams, but during spring training with all the Non Roster Invitees (NRIs) that numbers welled to like 180 or so.
Anyway, even though FCL has been rained out its first two days (Florida in Springtime!) the rosters have been set, and there’s definitely some interesting information to be gleaned from what the FCL looks like to start 2026. Here’s some of those comments.
Nats 2022 4th round prep draftee Brenner Cox is now a pitcher. After four years of hitting ineptitude in the low minors (including a combined .156/.249/.270 figure in 2025 between Low and High-A) the former outfielder is moving to the mound to see if he can make it work. I hope he resurrects his career.
Both Elian Soto and Carlos Tavares are still listed as Outfielders. Soto played 1B in 39 of his 49 games last year, while Tavares was demoted back to FCL from Low-A last year, where he played 1B in 49 of his 55 games. I’ve kept both as 1B on the Big Board despite what the MILB.com rosters say.
Soto and Tavares being in FCL creates a log-jam in the FCL infield, since they also have 1B/3B Manual Cabrera and 3B-only Luis Arias on the roster. Honestly, I’m surprised Tavares still is rostered after hitting just .153 in Low-A and getting moved back to the FCL at age 20. I’d guess they go Cabrera at 1B, Arias at 3B, Soto at DH, and Tavares on the bench.
They’ve promoted essentially their projected starting Outfield from the DSL in Nauris De La Cruz, Browm Martinez, and Victor Hurtado. All three are promising prospects; Martinez came to us in the Rosario trade with the Yankees last year and immediately hit the DL, so we’ve yet to see him play.
The two highest ranked prospects from the DSL last year (Marconi and Cortesia) also are here and should be the starting 2B and SS middle infield.
There’s 4 catchers on the roster, including top prospect Daniel Hernandez. One of them is a recent 23-yr old MLFA in Brady Cerkownyk who probably should be on a dev list in Low-A but starts in West Palm Beach.
Gavin Dugas is alive; he’s on the FCL roster rehabbing. He was a very old senior sign in 2023 and turns 26 in a few days .. he needs to push his way into AA at least this year.
We will have an entirely new starting rotation from 2025’s season closing five of Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson.
Portorreal was the opening day starter in Low-A
Farias was released at the end of March
Luke Johnson is doing tandem starts in Low-A
Both Feliz and Lunar are on the FCL 60-day DL (Lunar is full-season already, implying a major arm injury).
Reading the tea-leaves of the arms they’ve promoted from FCL … they promoted exactly five pitchers, all of whom were either starters or long relievers on the 2025 DSL roster. I’d have to thus guess that these are going to be the 5 “starters” for FCL: De La Cruz, Lopez, Reyes, Robles, and Torrellas. This makes sense; 4 of these 5 finished the DSL season in their rotation and the fifth (Lopez) was probably the most effective long reliever on the team.
There’s now an astonishing eight (8) MLFA signings on the FCL roster. There was not a single MLFA signing on the season-ending FSL roster last season; the roster was (save for one prospect received in trade) 100% in-house drafted or IFA signed players. That’s quite a turnaround in terms of roster management for this new organization.
While doing the FCL roster work for the Big Board, I learned for the first time about one additional MLFA signings the team has made: Noah Dean was signed on 3/30/26. I continue to be amazed at how poorly the milb.com pages work with each other, and how poor of a job they do at keeping up with these transactions.
Nearly all of these MLFAs are way too old for the FCL; one guy is 28 with AAA time (Shortridge). Clearly they’re part of the now-in-full-effect MLFA middle reliever churn that the team will be doing for the rest of the year, and I’d guess they’ll keep moving guys up and onward.
Speaking of milb.com issues: I have just one remaining player in XST on the Big Board with all these moves: Jackson Ross. The 2024 9th rounder hit well at Low-A last year, not so much when he got promoted to Wilmington. Now we have no idea where he is: his last listed transaction was the May 2025 promotion to Wilmington. However, he’s not on the 2026 Wilmington Roster, isn’t on the FCL roster .. and is still listed as Active. If I had to guess, i’d guess Ross either voluntarily retired over the off-season or got released and the transaction didn’t get properly recorded. That’s happened more than a few times in my big Board administrative time. Maybe he’ll suddenly pop up on the Wilmington roster though; hope so, since he only got a season’s run with the team.
I count 13 graduates from the DSL to the FCL:
2 catchers Hernandez and Figueroa
2 infielders Marconi and Cortesia
4 Outfielders: De la Cruz, Hurtado, Martinez, Obispo
5 Starters: De La Cruz, Lopez, Reyes, Robles, and Torrellas
Coincidentally, this leaves (if I’ve got the board right) 38 players in the DSL counting the new 2026 IFA class. 19 arms and 19 position players, including 9 outfielders. I’d imagine we’ll see 8-10 cuts from the DSL roster before they start play.
Players to watch: My highest ranked DSL prospects who got promoted are:
#23 Marconi German
#36 Brayan Cortesia
#42 Daniel Hernandez
#43 Nauris De la Cruz
#46 Browm Martinez
#47 Victor Hurtado
Not one of these newly promoted ranked prospects is one of the projected starters, even though I ranked past 100 players. The two best arms coming up are probably Lopez and Reyes; the other three didn’t exactly light the DSL up last year, so we’ll see what happens.
Seaver King has remembered how to hit in 2026. Photo via Fangraphs.
Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.
I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings … which I’ll post soon.
Here’s a quick check in with our top prospects and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked outside the top 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25.
All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the LInks page.
#1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Started slow, but raised his average 50 points in the last 10 games of April. Finished the month slashing .247/.377/.398 with 18 steals in 23 games while starting at Short a few months after turning 18. Can’t ask for much more than that. Temperature: heating up.
#2. Henry Ford, C AAA: he has not had the best month. After not making the MLB team with the though that he’d get to play full-time in Rochester, he’s slashed .200/.288/.243 in 18 starts. he has too many strikeouts and almost no power (just 3 doubles in 70 ABs). Temperature: ice cold
#3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, so we won’t see him until at least June 1. Per the Nats injury report, the last time we got an update on his off-season Lat surgery was that in late march he was throwing on flat ground. I would hope he’s made progress since. Temperature: on ice.
#4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season to rehab his July 2025 TJ surgery, though on the injury report in Spring training he was throwing 3x/week on flat ground. Maybe he makes it back for a couple of starts in August, morelikely he goes to the AFL this off-season to get some game prep for 2027. Temperature: on ice.
#5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: played just four games into the season and was 2-for-17 before hitting the DL with an unknown injury. Google and AI don’t know either, guessing that its something related to his off-season bone-spur removal surgery and are calling it a “wrist injury” for this year. Guessing he’s back mid-May. Temperature: on ice.
#6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). Remember; he’s 20 and was the opening day starter in AA. I’m not going to crush him too much, but there’s some doubt creeping into some player evaluators on Clemmey’s future. Temperature: holding steady.
#7 Seaver King, SS AA: King had a great month in Harrisburg, slashing .286/.400/.536 with 4 HRs and 20 RBI in the middle of the order. This is a huge improvement over his performance in AA last season, and he seems to be building off of his strong AFL. Cross your fingers, but having King flourish into a top prospect worthy of his draft stature would do a ton for this team. There’s nobody blocking him for a AAA move. Temperature: red hot.
#8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales had a 4.42 ERA and a 1.20 whip and a .182 BAA for the month, which all sounds decent. But, he’s walking too many guys and his numbers are are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof. This “show-me” trade where they traded Jake Bennett even up for Perales is not aging well; Bennett had a 0.86 ERA in his 5 AAA starts and just got called up to the majors for Boston. Meanwhile Perales is the sole arm on the 40-man NOT to get called up in April. Not good. Temperature: cool
#9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, SS, High-A: A very solid first month for Fitz-Gerald in the system: .293/.435/.511 with 3 homers and 10 SBs. He’s been playing primarily 2B thanks to multiple other SS prospects in High-A, and is blocked in AA by a higher ranked prospect in King, but if the team decides to make a slew of SS-only moves to do promotions, he could be in line if he keeps up this production. Temperature: Red Hot.
#10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He has started off his pro career with a solid month: He doesn’t have massive K/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. All three of those figures lead the team in Fredericksburg for those with more than a trivial number of IP. He’s been outshined a bit in the Low-A bullpen by his fellow 2025 prep draftee Sime, but don’t let that fool you; he’s doing great. Temperature: Hot.
#11 Ronny Cruz: SS, High-A: Cruz is probably the minor league POTY so far, earning a promotion to High-A after just two weeks with a .333/.460/.627 line to open the season in Fredericksburg, and didn’t stop once he got to Wilmington with a .354/.436/.604 line since. The 19 yr old is showing both power and speed (6 hrs and 18 SBs so far), and is likely to be in the next iterations of the top 100 prospects in all of the minors when they start getting refreshed. Juan Soto made it to the majors at 19, as did Harper; can Cruz? Temperature: Red Hot.
#12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: Slashed .261/.356/.523 for the month with a ton of extra-base power (10 doubles and 3 homers) and showing major positional flexibility (he’s played 2B,SS,3B and CF so far this season). This is a massive improvement over last year and I like what I see here. A middle infielder with this kind of power will play for sure. Temperature: Hot.
#13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry destroyed the ball in April, slashing .329/.454/.506 while splitting time between 1B and RF. We don’t exactly have a murderer’s row of outfielders playing AA right now, so I’d imagine he’s getting moved up soon since he’s repeating the level from the end of last season and is a seasoned collegiate hitter. Temperature: Red Hot.
#14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: struggled at the plate a bit with a .182/357/377 slash, but also showed some interesting promise with 4 homers and 11 SBs for the month. That kind of 20/20 split is something to look forward to, and it seems like he may be due for a stats rebound. Temperature: luke warm hopefully.
#15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: struggled in April: .200/.307/.294. If you hit .200 you can’t have such a low slugging or else you’re just lineup fodder with no power potential. Temperature: cold.
#16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: 0-2 with 5.48 ERA, 1.57 whip. He’s walking way too many guys (15 BBs in 23 ip) and is struggling from a consistency perspective. Temperature: cold.
#17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AA: 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.80 whip, and 17/4 K/BB in 13 innings. He’s not going deep into starts yet, but he’s got very solid numbers. He’s almost like this year’s version of Jake Bennett. Let’s see him going 5-6 innings per start with this production and look for a mid-season promotion. Temperature: very warm.
#18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): Low-A: well, you can’t ask for much more than his start: 32/11 K/BB in 14.2 IP in four tandem/3-inning starts to begin his pro career. That’s too many walks but you can’t argue with the K figures. Even if he continues to walk that many guys, he won’t be long in Low-A striking out more than 2/3rds of the hitters he faces. Temperature: red hot.
#19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far with poor numbers across the board. If he continues with 5.00 ERA and 1.80 whip figures, he may get sent back to High-A. Temperature: cool.
#20: Yeremy Cabrera CF low-A: Slash of .280/.427/.561 for Fredericksburg, part of a slew of hot hitters just down I-95 from Nats park. Another 20/20 guy showing both power and speed (4hrs and 13SBs). Temperature: red hot.
A quick reminder: we trade MacKenzie Gore for 3B Gavin Fien, 1B Abimelec Ortiz, SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, RHP Alejandro Rosario and CF Yeremy Cabrera. And I wondered if we got enough. If these top prospects continue to shine that trade is going to look like a steal. Especially with Gore struggling in his Texas debut a bit.
Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2026:
in AAA:
#27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B is destroying AAA pitching right now: .341/.406/.518 for April. There’s not really any room for a 1B/DH guy at the MLB level right now, but at some point the team may fully cut ties with Luis Garcia or Curtis Mead and give Morales a shot.
#32 Andrew Pinckney OF continues his solid AAA hitting: .282/.363/.493 in April. That’s nearly identical to his 2025 season slash line in AAA of .269/.348/.431. I’m trying to think of a comp for Pinckney; a player we had who produced in the minors for years w/o getting a shot then finally came up and killed it … maybe someone like Tanner Roark?
#36 and #37 are Cornelio and Alvarez, who both have MLB call-ups and then got sent right back. If they were better arms, they’d be in the rotation instead of Mikolas and Littell … perhaps in a month.
In AA:
#30 Cayden Wallace 3B/2B is absolutely destroying the ball in AA right now: .292/.379/.584 for the month. Six homers, a ton of extra base power, getting walks. He’s played mostly 3B, can play 2B (where he did most of last year making way for House). Thus he’s kind of blocked moving up due to Morales & Glasser. However, it’s great to see some major production from the former top 10 prospect.
#71 Brandon Boissiere OF started the season super strong .289/383/.526 then did something really bad to himself, in that the team moved him to the 60-day DL on 4/28/26. He’s one of those guys who seemed to be ‘this close’ to getting released, but now we don’t know what to make of the situation.
In High-A:
High-A is a weird roster to start; there’s the aformentioned Fitz-Gerald, Petry, Feliz and Tejeda, then there’s really a gap to the next best prospect on the roster. What High-A has a lot of are guys who used to be ranked highly but who have seen their stock fall: think Bazzell, Vaquero, White, and especially Green. That being said, looking for positives:
#29 Josh Randall had a solid April on the mound: 2.70 ERA, 21/3 K/BB in 23innings and awesome peripherals 0.80 whip and.186 BAA. That’s promotional material.
For the month: Elijah Green: 21 games and 84 ABs. Of those 84 ABs he struck out an astonishing 52 times. He’s averaging 2.5 strikeouts a game.
In Low-A:
#81 Alexander Meckley RHP starter had a solid month: 2.18 ERA, 26/11 K/BB in 20ip.
Unranked Jack Moroknek had nearly as good of a line at the plate as Ronny Cruz: .344/.456/.563. Lots of power, lots of walks. The 2025 11th rounder has started his pro career nicely.
Parker reacclimating himself with the buses in AAA. Photo via WP
With the staggered starts now in place for MLB, AAA, and then the rest of the full-season minor leagues, we no longer get the massive data dump of roster releases like in year’s past. We get MLB, then AAA, then the rest. So, I’ve kind of held onto this post for a bit. We also had to wait for all the leagues to get totally through one rotation so I could write this reaction piece.
Here’s some reactions to the five Full-season roster announcements. I’m primarily focusing on the starting rotations, and just for fun i’m pulling in my 2026 Rotation predictions piece written last October to talk about just how far off I was. I’ll throw in some commentary on each rotation, and I’m also adding in commentary on some notable position player assignments.
MLB predicted for 2026: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez
MLB Actual 2026: Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin, Griffen, Littell
Rotation Thoughts: Well, that didn’t go how I thought it would last fall.
I thought the team would hold onto Gore through the 2026 trade deadline and flip him then (wrong: they found a trade partner willing to part with some top-end prospects)
I thought Grey would be healthy (nope: flexor strain, on top of an entire year lost to TJ. not good)
I thought Alvarez’ September would earn him a spot as the sole lefty worthy of the rotation (nope: by all accounts reading the tea leaves from sping training coverage this team never really considered him, or Parker, for the 5th starter spot.
I figured we’d sign just one FA, not three.
And I certainly didn’t think Irvin would earn a spot after his awful 2025.
Lots of “wrong” in there.
Losing Grey was a bummer; Flexor Strain often turns into more. I know he’s not an Ace in this league, but he has promise, and would be a solid 4th starter on a good team. Unfortunately, we’re not a good team, so he was our opening day starter two years ago. Lets all just hold our collective breath and hope these three veteran FAs pitch well enough to net talent at the trade deadline.
In my prediction piece, I thought the team would push all three of Parker, Irvin, and Lord to the bullpen. Lord’s relief splits were so much better than his starter splits that it made too much sense, while the others could hopefully morph into better starters. Instead, the team sent Parker down, along with (initially) four other 40-man members.
Other Roster thoughts: MLB Bullpen, Roster reactions: I already posted on this topic around Opening day. TL/DR: the bullpen is a collection of waiver claims and MLFAs nobody’s heard off and the team sent down or cut loose prospects instead of playing them at the MLB level. And, through the first week we’re not exactly seeing a murder’s row of relivers coming out of the pen. After a promising opening series, the bullpen has looked worse than awful, and it may be a long season of up-and-down options/call-ups from the AAA core.
AAA predicted for 2026: Lao, Ogasawara, Cornelio, Bennett, veteran MLFA
Rotation thoughts: We thought we had a clean set of 40-man starters set to go in AAA when the opening day MLB rosters were announced, but then the team DFA’d Linan and has had to scramble in the opening weeks of the season to find a 5th starter. The first turn through was a brief stint from former 40-man member Lara, but the real candidate seems to be MLFA signee Champlain, who’s basically always been a starter. This is an experienced, expectations-heavy crew; Parker hasn’t been in AAA since late 2023 and (for me) should be in the MLB bullpen. Same with Alvarez: not sure what he has to prove in AAA after a stellar 2025 (his first two starts in 2026 confirm that so far). Cornelio more than earned his spot on this roster with his meteoric rise in 2025; should be interesting to see if he sticks. My off-season predictions were understandably shredded when the team released Lao (to go to Japan) and traded Bennett (straight up for Perales). Ogasawara got pushed down with so many 40-man players pouring into AA to be the richest guy in the Eastern league.
Other roster thoughts: the team, by virtue of sending down so many 1B/OF types, now has a massive logjam of players in AAA who need playing time. AAA now has Ortiz, Chapparo, Hassell, Crews, and Franklin, all of whom are on the 40-man and aren’t in AAA for their health. On top of that you have well regarded OF prospects Pinckney and Glasser with little room to play, and then so many 1B types has pushed Morales to 3B … that’s like 7 guys for 5 spots night in and night out. At least they alleviated the pressure a little bit by releasing Mervis … but a 40-man guy is now sitting regularly in AAA. So far, it seems like Pinckney is the odd-man out, with the more flexible Glasser playing mostly 2B. Pinckney may be another sign of something I alluded to previously; he was clearly a favorite of the previous front office, getting spring training NRIs out of nowhere despite being basically less-than 4A talent.
The Bullpen features basically three 40-man guys on their last chance (Rutledge, Ribalta, Fernandez). If these guys couldn’t beat out the any one of the waiver claims currently in MLB, that really is an indictment of where they are. They’re joined by four 2026 MLFAs (one step above a waiver claim) in Yean, Gott, Penrod, and Montes de Oca (already hurt). There’s three former starters in the pen (Lara, Shuman, Tolman), so it should be interesting to see who gets the 5th starter spot long term once Eder got DFA’d and traded for basically nothing (ok, they got “cash”). Technically it looked like Lara got the start when they first needed a 5th starter, but i’m guessing it may actually be Chander Champlain, an end of spring training MLFA who pitched to a 7.84 ERA last year as a AAA starter in the PCL. Could be an interesting year of churn in AAA with the new regime so freely grabbing guys off the MLFA/waiver wire.
AA predicted: Rotation: Kent, Clemmey, Choi, Sthele, Atencio
AA Acutal: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
AA D/L rotation: Susana, Sykora, Stuart, Rosario, Kent.
Rotation thoughts: Gee, kinda wish our AA rotation was our DL list and not who we’re actually throwing out there. That’s two top-5 prospects, a near top-10, and two current/former mid teen prospects.
Happy to see both Swan and Garcia moved up. Where is Kent?? I thought he was a key member of this rotation but he’s nowhere to be found to start the season (answer: he’s on the DL, put there after the season started, though apparently not yet onto Milb.com’s register). Luckham and Ogasawara were pushed down to AA thanks to too many 40-man guys coming down from MLB, and that ended up impacting a couple arms here: I initially predicted Choi to be here but he was a MLFA after last season … and remains a MLFA. Same with Atencio; he elected MLFA as well and is out of the system (not sure how I screwed that up). Nonetheless, AA a major prospect and two promising arms to watch. I’ll have to time it right in the rotation when Harrisburg comes to visit Richmond so I can see one of the better prospects throw.
Other roster thoughts: the AA non-pitching roster has a lot of holdovers from the end of 2025, and a lot of down-ballot but still important prospect depth. Lomavita’s pathway to the majors has been severely impacted with the Ford acquisition; how will he react? Is Seaver King mid-2025 version of AFL-version? Is Wallace a top 10 prospect or a mid-30s prospect? Is Sam Peterson the real deal? Lots of fun questions for this roster. The day before this writing Made broke his leg (or something similarly bad) and went straight to the 60-day DL, opening up probably the last chance for DC-native Cortland Lawson to get a chance.
The bullpen, like AAA’s, features a growing collection of MLFAs and rule5 guys, including a few signed on the eve of the season and newly introduced to Nats fans when the rosters were revealed and we were like, “Uh, who is that guy?” Gaston? Van Scoyoc? Tebrake? Linarez?
Rotation thoughts: From predictions, Garcia made AA, Linan got flipped, and Sales started the year on the 60-day DL, so that opened up some spots. Polanco seems like he’s the LR/SS, and Sullivan got promoted up a level from where I thought he’d be last fall. It’s great to see Tejeda keeping a spot and not getting pushed to the bullpen. It should be good to see what Maddox can do; he didn’t really pitch last year. Lastly, we have a guy in Bruni who got the opening day start who was not only just a reliever last year, but struggled. I wonder if he sticks in the rotation, or if he’s actually really in the rotation, or if someone else (Polanco?) was supposed to go opening day and got hurt last minute.
Interestingly, when i shook out all the rosters on opening day, there were half a dozen names missing who I figured were headed for release … instead, a big chunk of them were added to Wilmington a few days later and are on the DL to start. Biven, Arguellas, Collins, Sthele, Tepper, and Dugas are all in that same category … wouldn’t have been surprised to see any of them released, but instead they’re on the High-A DL.
Other roster thoughts: There were a couple of kind of surprising roster assignments when the High-A roster was announced. I’ll kind of go through them one by one:
Hunter Hines made this team. Hines was a negligible bonus senior draftee in 2025 but not only made a full season squad but made High-A right out of the gate. Bravo there.
Devin Fitz-Gerald straight to High-A; this was one way to fix the log-jam of high-end SS prospects in Low-A; send one of them up. Looks like he’ll move to 2B for Feliz.
Also in High-A is Angel Feliz, as we suspected. Feliz likely splits time with Jorgelys Mota at 3B/DH if i’m reading the roster right.
I wonder if Elijah Green is there to play, or for social promotion. We’ll soon see. He got the early starts in Center, and picked right up where he left off (4 ks in first 8 ABs). It got even worse: he had a 5-k game the day before this drops, giving him 11 Ks in his first 16 ABs. He’s only 22, so High-A isn’t a reach, but with a new regime not wedded to keeping mistakes of the past, one has to wonder if/when Green gets released.
Marcus Brown popped up out of nowhere 2 days in; he wasn’t on the social media roster releases then suddenly was subbed into a game 2 games in.
The Bullpen is super heavy on MLFAs and rule5 minor league phase guys: 6 of the 12 guys. I don’t think this Front Office was impressed with what they saw down on the farm in terms of arms. However its safe to say
Rotation thoughts: My 2025 predictions were awful. Sullivan in High-A, Agostini and Farias were released, and Feliz is in XST. I was sort of surprised to see both our high-end bonus picks from 2025 (Harmon and Sime) here to start; the prior regime would have absolutely started them in XST and FCL. so, bravo to see them thrown to the wolves.
The first turn through the rotation looked like a ton of “tandem starting,” where two (or in some cases three) guys each go 3 innings/50 pitches. We’ll see how this shakes out; I’d guess the leaders in the clubhouse are Portorreal, Sime, Harmon, Johnson, and Lyon. But we’ll see.
Other roster thoughts: Well, if you’ve got half a dozen SS prospects who all need playing time, you do what Low-A is doing with them. Signed as SS but playing elsewhere early on includes Ronny Cruz (2B), Luke Dickerson (3b), Coy James (LF), and Gavin Fein (RF). Trade Acquisition SS Ramirez hurting for time early on. A good problem to have: good SS can move around.
Fredericksburg is suuuuper young. Half the lineup and two of the starting pitchers are teenagers.
Who’s still in XST or missing?
Per the big board, which has been a bit challenging to keep up with this spring. there’s just a few names still hanging in XST purgatory.
Jackson Ross, 1B 9th rounder from High-A last year.
Brenner Cox, OF 4th rounder; career .177 BA who got squeezed out of the A rosters and may be done.
Juan Abreu, a middle reliver from Low-A last year who’s without an assignment so far.
5-6 IFAs who clearly are headed to the DSL eventually, but there’s so many players listed there right now they’d overflow the XLS. I’d imagine we’re going to see at least 20 cuts from the DSL roster in the coming weeks.
Sykora remains highly ranked by the MLBpipeline crew. Photo MASN
One of the last 2 remaining “big pundits” in the space released their top 30 today, as Sam Dykstra, Jim Callis, and Jonathan Mayo put pen to paper and released our Nats top 30 list.
Links to past major pundits include: Keith Law, Baseball America, Prospects1500. Others just do top 10s or are behind firewalls. One last big one remains: Fangraphs, who is churning them out now team by team.
Here’s the top 30 in tabular format
MLBPipeline rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Eli
Willits
SS
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
3
Harry
Ford
C
4
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
5
Gavin
Fein
SS
6
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
7
Seaver
King
SS
8
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
9
Devin
Fitz-Gerald
SS
10
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
11
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
12
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
13
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
14
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
15
Alejandro
Rosario
RHP
16
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
17
Coy
James
SS
18
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
19
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
20
Yeremy
Cabrera
OF (corner)
21
Marconi
German
SS
22
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
23
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
24
Abimelec
Ortiz
1B/OF (Corner)
25
Ronny
Cruz
SS
26
Eriq
Swan
RHP (Starter)
27
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
28
Caleb
Lomavita
C
29
Yohandy
Morales
3B
30
Nauris
De La Cruz
OF (Corner)
Thoughts.
We seem to have settled on a “Big 5” in the system, with nearly every pundit having the same 5 guys at the top in some order. Willits has separated himself as #1.
This is the highest i’ve seen Sykora kept with his TJ surgery amongst rating systems, which implies that he’d be #1 over Willits if he was healthy. That’s probably not saying anything ground breaking.
The next 4 guys: all trade bounty. Our entire top 20 now is Draft or Trade acquisitions; you have to go down to #21 to find the first IFA in German Marconi. Hopefully the new regime has a plan to return our relatively disastrous IFA system into something that generates talent.
They have King and Dickerson 7 and 8. I think that’s still high for both, but its inline with where others have them. I understand the narrative, especially surrounding King, but Dickerson didn’t have the benefit of an AFL season where he raked to remind people of his potential.
Remember what I said previously about ranking Prep RHP with big bonuses? Harmon: #10. Yup, right where I said he’d be.
They’re a little low on Clemmey … he’s 2 years out of HS, and spent those two years moving up 3 levels of the minor leagues. Why would anyone rank him below a kid we just drafted who’s pitched exactly zero pro innings? Remember; had he gone to college Clemmey would be a College Junior right now just starting his draft-year season … for us he’ll be the opening day starter in AA where he’s already got a month of experience.
Just like Keith Law, they’re incredibly high on Tejeda, ranking him #13. wow. Reading his scouting report, they’re putting the 6’8″ starter at mid 90s, which plays up with his height, with 2 decent secondary pitches and a 60 grade on his slider. They say 4th or 5th starter ceiling. Can’t wait to see what he does in 2026.
They’re also pretty high on Jackson Kent, noting his 18 K/BB ratio but only giving him a 50 for his control (weird). Another guy who’ll be in AA in 2026. Can’t wait to see this crew run through Richmond (June 9th-14th) to get a look at some of them.
Ironic they have Franklin and Pinckney ranked right next to each other: they’re basically the same prospect at this point. AAA Outfielders with some pop.
They’re not fans of Sam Peterson, top 10 on other lists but at #22 here. They say 4th OF.
Lomavita all the way down at #28; that seems way too low. Then again, Law didn’t have him in his top 20 nor in his Honorable Mentions, so maybe the shine is off of him, especially since Ford is now the heir-apparent
Morales gets dumped even further; man this guy is just not respected by these shops for getting to AAA at age 23 and holding his own.
Outside the top 30 guys include
Any 2026 IFA signing
Kevin Bazzell; he’ll need a productive season to get back
Sir Jamison Jones; Law loves him at #14
Jorgelys Mota; maybe a solid High-A season will help.
Nobody else of note: MLBpipeline does a pretty conservative list.
As far as major pundits go: we’ve now gotten (links open to my analysis here if done) Keith Law, Baseball America, Prospects1500, Prospects361 (just a top 10 back in November), Baseball Prospectus (paywall), and ProspectsLive (mostly paywall protected) released. Still waiting for MLBpipeline, hopefully more than just a top 10 from ESPN/McDaniel, and the Fangraphs guys (who wait til June usually). Once we get the MLB and larger ESPN links, I’ll re-release my own rankings, which I put out a draft of at the end of 2025.
Law is known to be a bit contrarian in his farm system and prospect rankings; so far his system rankings are showing at least 4-5 outliers as compared to the rest of the field (including his ranking the Nats 6th overall, when most other pundits so far have us middle of the road in the 15-16 range). I think these outliers result in his methodology, which has him “start over” on prospects every year and he tries not to let previous years color his evaluations. I suspect this leads him to over- and under- evaluation of players who had one-off seasons one way or the other. We’ll see how that plays out during the analysis.
So, with that in mind, here’s his top 20 for the Nats.
Current Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Eli
Willits
SS
2
Gavin
Fein
SS
3
Seaver
King
SS
4
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
5
Harry
Ford
C
6
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
7
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
8
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
9
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
10
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
11
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
12
Devin
Fitz-Gerald
SS
13
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
14
Sir Jamison
Jones
C
15
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
16
Abimelec
Ortiz
1B/OF (Corner)
17
Coy
James
SS
18
Yeremy
Cabrera
OF (corner)
19
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
20
Caleb
Lomavita
C
21
Kevin
Bazzell
C
22
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
23
Alejandro
Rosario
RHP
24
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
Here’s some thoughts going top to bottom.
He may be contrarian, but he’s not THAT contrarian, keeping Willits at #1.
Fien comes in at #2, in a bit of a surprise. He called Fien “the best HS hitter in the 2025 draft” and has high hopes. So do we, Keith, so do we. The more I look at the Gore trade, the more it looks like Gore for Fien plus a bunch of lottery tickets.
King all the way at #3. Easily the high mark for King this cycle. Law had King #2 this time last year, so he’s always liked him. He mentioned the “conflicting advice” King got last year as the reason behind his hitting troubles, something we’ve heard from multiple sources and something that Law attributes to several inexplicable hitting performances for King, Bazzell, and Dickerson last year. He was very bullish on King’s AFL performance, and also reminds us just how good he is defensively.
Sykora, Ford, Susana come in 4-5-6 whereas most of the shops we’ve seen have them ranked 2-3-4. Fair enough. Law has never been a fan of “100mph guy who walks 4 per nine” and that describes Susana (and Perales) to a T.
Peterson at #8, another high mark for the prospect. If we can turn an 8th rounder into a MLB regular, that’s a huge farm system win.
Something else Law doesn’t like is weird pitching mechanics, which explains why Clemmey is down at #10 when he’s mostly in the 5-6 range elsewhere.
He has 100mph capable Landon Harmon at #11, which is amazing considering where he lands on every other ranking right now (11-11-13-9-10-11-7-10-10-10-11-6-10-13 since drafted). It’s almost like the entire industry says, “Ok … prep RHP who throws 100mph at age 18 … got a huge bonus … he could be Justin Verlander or he could be … um… one of 1000 prep RHPs who never get out of low-A. Lets rank him #10.” Guess where I ranked him last Fall? #10! Where am I gonna rank him in a couple weeks? #10! Ok, Maybe.
He’s got Fitz-Gerald a bit lower than others, probably b/c he’s a bit undersized and has 2B ceiling all over him.
He’s super high on Sir Jamison Jones at #14, kind of a forgotten prep draftee from 2024 who took a bit more than the $150k min to sign surprisingly. Hey, if Law’s right here, all the better.
Also super high on Tejeda, kind of a RHP slinger who couldn’t get into the weekend rotation at Florida State but who pitched a-OK in low A for us.
I like that he recognizes the MLB playing potential for Abimelec Ortiz, who BA didn’t even have in their top 30. This guy could be in our MLB opening day lineup at 1B.
He had interesting comments on both Linan and Swan, the two arms we got for Alex Call out of the Dodgers’ stacked farm system. He still ranks Linan #19 but lists his ceiling as a “trick-pitch reliever.” Not promising. He describes Swan as having a “golden arm who can’t throw strikes or miss bats,” another indictment.
The list is bottomed up by Lomavita, who is #20 here but mostly in the upper teens elsewhere. Not a flattering look at his receiving.
He lists a few Honorable mentions that i’ve ranked “21-24: Bazzell, Sime, Rosario, and Franklin.
Who’s he missing?
The highest likely player he doesn’t rank that others routinely have in their top 20s is Angel Feliz. Could be b/c Law didn’t spend a ton of time in the FCL and wasn’t impressed with his 2 months in Low-A.
He seems almost unfairly down on Yohandy Morales … who he says has too much swing and miss as a 23-yr old in AAA. Yeah, a 23-yr old in AAA. Not a 26-yr old in AAA. Lots of 2023 draftees are still in A ball, not starting in AAA a full season. Should be higher.
Perhaps that’s also why Andrew Pinckney is nowhere to be found; anything you can say about Morales you can probably say about Pinckney right now too.
Not too many others that he left out: Jackson Kent maybe in the edges of his top 20. No Phillip Glasser, he with the NRI now for 2026 spring training. No recognition of Cornelio’s 2025 season. But we’re now nitpicking, because its likely most of these guys would be in his 21-30 range.
Gavin Fien, the jewel of the Gore Trade, slots deep into our top 10. Photo via MLB.com
It was just a couple weeks ago (January 9th to be exact) when Baseball America released its top 30 list for the Nats system. I reviewed it then in depth, as the first major pundit to release a top 30 rankings for our system.
So much has happened since that they had to update it.
Between the IFA signing period (where we spread around our $6M plus bonus pool on several highly-regarded prospects) and the Mackenzie Gore trade (which netted us five guys, four of which are now in our top 30), our top 30 now looks a bit different. Here’s where our new acquisitions slot into BA’s list, and who they pushed out at the bottom:
New #5: Fien, Gavin, the star of the Gore trade. The $4.8M first round SS from last year will compete with our own $8.2M first round SS Willits for playing time in Fredericksburg this year. Though his size likely puts him immediately at 3B.
New #9: Fitz-Gerald, Devin, the $900k 2024 SS will … also compete for playing time in Low-A this year.
New #16: Rosario, Alejandro, the RHP pitcher who just had TJ and won’t pitch until spring 2027 at best.
New #22: Cabrera, Yeremy*, the speedy 20-yr old CF with 43 steals last season.
New #23: Serrano, Samil*, the headliner of our 2026 IFA class.
These 5 guys pushed down the formerly 26-30th ranked players:
New #31: Alvarez, Andrew*, the under the radar lefty control arm who pitched really well in SSS last year in the majors.
New #32: Glasser, Phillip*, our ML hitter of the year who got a NRI this season but who faces an uphill challenge for playing time.
New #33: De La Cruz, Nauris, who signed for a pittance in the 2025 IFA class but who bashed the DSL last year.
New #34: Cortesia, Brayan, who signed for a massive amount in the 2025 IFA class and who is higher on a lot of lists right now.
New #35: McGarry, Griff, our Rule-5 pick whose pathway to being in the rotation just eased with the Gore trade.
Also newly acquired this month and presumably in the mix in this 30-40 range right now: our three other 7-figure signings from the 2026 IFA class (Suarez, Isalas, Ramirez, Angel#, and Duran, Juan) and the 5th prospect in the Gore trade Ortiz, Abimelec*, who sits 24th on MLBPipeline’s rankings right now and who might have an inside track to the starting 1B job in 2026.
I may have been critical of the Gore trade initially, but there’s a reason pundits mostly across the board liked it. These pundits may be overlooking the risk of the former Texas prospects, but the moves certainly strengthen the overall farm.
Now that we’re at the end of January, we should get ready for a ton of prospect content to come out soon. The next month should give us Keith Law, MLBPipeline, and Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. The last major pundit out there (Fangraphs/Longenhagen) has been pushing his ranks into the summer lately.
It’s been rumored all off-season, and now a few weeks before Pitchers and Catchers report, our biggest trade asset MacKenzie Gore has been traded. Announced last night, the Nats moved Gore to Texas for a package of 5 prospects.
Here’s a quick look at those 5 prospects, with their new Nats system rank and other pertinent information:
shortstop Gavin Fien; 2025 1st rounder, Age 18. Our new #5 prospect (was Texas’ #2 prospect)
right-hander Alejandro Rosario; 2023 college 5th rounder, Age 24, AA last year, new #11 prospect
infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald: 2025 prep 5th rounder but over-slot bonus, age 20, new #12 prospect
outfielder Yeremy Cabrera: 2022 IFA, just 20, our new #17 prospect
first baseman/outfielder Abimelec Ortiz; 2021 NDFA, Age 3, on 40-man, hit AAA last year, new #24
First glance? I’m sorry, but is this all we could get? One 18yr old 1st rounder, two 20yr olds in low-A, a AA starter who missed all of 2025 AND just had TJ so he’s missing all of 2026 too, and a AAA utility guy? This is a major swing from a risk perspective, and the lack of additional higher-regarded prospects give me pause. The discovery (post publishing) that the 2nd best prospect is out for the entire 2026 season is even more demoralizing here.
I’m really disappointed with this return. We didn’t even get Texas’ best prospect in this deal. Maybe that’s me overvaluing Gore. On the one hand, Gore’s career numbers put him at a 98 ERA+. But at the same time, we’ve seen him be completely dominant for stretches. He’s valuable because he’s being paid a pittance for what he provides as a mid-rotation starter ($2.8M in first year Arb this year, $5.6M this year) and for 2 more years of control. He’s an innings eater who throws mid-90s from the left side; that’s worth a ton of the FA market and should have been worth more in trade.
When he didn’t go in the Winter Meetings, I thought the team should hold on to him until the Trade Deadline, when desperate teams who had lost starters to injury would be overpaying for mid-level starters. I was wrong; the new FO pulled the trigger on a deal they liked. I sense this was an underpay by Texas, but clearly the GM sees these younger guys and liked the deal.
An additional wrinkle: we’ve spoken before about the logjam of young shortstops projected to play in Fredericksburg in 2026 … well we just added two more guys who need playing time. We now add Fien and Fitz-Gerald to Willis, Feliz, Dickerson, and Mota, all of whom are likely projected to Low-A and who predominantly play SS.
What does this mean for the franchise? Insiders and those in the knew already knew this, but the signals have been strong that we’re on our way to bottoming out once again. My “casual Nats fan” pinged me last night with an immediate reaction to this trade, asking why we were getting rid of our best pitcher and I had to break it to him; we’re going to be bad for a while, so buckle up. This latter type of fan is the one who the Nats eventually will need to come back, to buy tickets, to bring the family for weekend games … but I sense a move like this, one which gets rid of one of the few players whose names they even know, is going to turn people off for a while.
I’m always excited to get more prospects into the system, as a prospect-heavy analysis site. Don’t get me wrong; can’t wait to do the spreadsheet work and try to noodle where I think these players will fit in my eventual top-100+ ranking that i’ll publish before the season starts. But I hate trading away assets and not getting enough in return, which I believe happened here.
What do you think? Am I over-valuing Gore? Did we get appropriate return here? Should we have waited til the Trade deadline 2026?
We’ve been discussing our International Free Agency (IFA) class futility a bit in the comments, and today 1/15/26 is the day we announce our newest crop of international signees, so lets take a quick peek at how things have gone and who we have coming into the system today.
We’ll be using my IFA Signing Tracker to drive this conversation. I’ve built this back to the 2016 class with a slew of information per player, including links to their milb.com page, bonuses, positions, and (most importantly); their “high level” achieved. As discussed in the comments, we’ve seen very, very little production for the past decade of drafts: Working backwards, here’s an idea:
2025: $6.2M bonus pool, two $1M plus players plus a bunch of mid 6-figure guys. Four guys getting prospect love (the two big $ guys Cortesia and Hernandez, plus German and $10k signing De La cruz)
2024: $5.9M pool, about half went to two guys in Hurtado and Feliz. Feliz now on precipice of the top 10, Hurtado scuffling around after two straight weak DSL seasons. Nobody else of note from class.
2023: $5.2M pool, two $1M plus players in Acevedo and Solano. Solano already released, only a couple other very weak prospects showing out right now in Tejeda and Jose Feliz.
2022: $5.1M pool, $4.9M of which went to Vaquero. Also spent $250k on Mota. Vaquero just repeated low-A for the third year, while Mota is starting to creep up the ranks and is ahead of Vaquero on most lists right now.
2021: $5.3M pool, $3.9M of which went to Armando Cruz in another “put all our eggs in one basket” class. We don’t have a single player from this class ranked on any prospect list at present.
2020: no class – Covid: we ended up signing a couple of guys later in 2020 for that “class” but they’ve all since been released.
2019: $4.3M pool, we gave $1M plus to two guys (Lara, Aldonis). Also $800k to Quintana (released) and Dawry Martinez (released). Lara made the MLB but is now considered a weak prospect and likely is a AAA-ceiling guy. Aldonis is still in High-A.
2018 and 2017 fell into the “IFA signing bonus penalty phase” based on our team’s actions in the 2016 draft, where we purposely blew past the bonus pool to knowingly accept penalties in the next two years.
2018: $4.9M pool but with a $300k/per player signing cap; we signed a few $300k players but the best anyone did was Jose Atencio making AA before hitting MLFA. One player remains in the system at this point (Otanez).
2017: $4.75M pool, but we came nowhere close to it. Recently traded reliever Ferrer was the sole player to make the majors, and one other remains active (backup middle infielder Pena).
2016: We had a $2.3M pool and paid out at least $6.5M of bonuses that I can find, playing the IFA bonus gambit at the time. This class produced at least four MLB ers in Garcia, Pineda, Adon, and Yadiel Hernandez, but remains infamous in Nats circles for the $3.9M given to Yasel Antuna.
So, that’s the sordid decade-long history of our bonus spending.
We have a new management team in town, so we should see a new direction and strategy in Latin America … eventually. Unfortunately, the deals announced today have been in place for months, and have been under negotiation for years, so the impact of the new group won’t fully be seen until at least next January. But, that being said, lets take a look at what we know about the 2026 class.
We’ve signed 15 players today. Like several classes on this list, our 2026 class can be categorized as a “Stars and Scrubs” class, albeit with our $6.6M pool being spread out to four $1m+ players instead of putting it all on one guy as we did in the Cruz/Vaquero classes. So, we’re going to spend around $6M of that $6.6M on the top four guys. Right now, BA and Fangraphs slightly differ in the $$ figures, but I’ll use the BA numbers for this post. Also below: overall class ranks below (fangraphs first, then BA, then MLBpipeline)
#12/#18/#40: Suarez, Isalas, a true CF from the DR with a $1.9M bonus
#13/#16/#26 Serrano, Samil*, corner OF from the DR with a $1.97M bonus.
#45/#52/#50+: Ramirez, Angel#, corner OF from the DR $1M bonus.
#52/#53/#50+: Duran, Juan, corner OF from the DR, $1M bonus.
So, these four guys are basically going to be the class. The BA site lists a 5th player of note, yet another outfielder named Jawel Garcia who will probably get a few hundred thousand of the remaining amount.
I’ll just point out the obvious. Our 5 best IFAs this year … are all Outfielders?? Uh, only three can play a day guys. The BA link says Ramirez was a short stop until very recently, so maybe they return him to the dirt, and a couple of these guys are a bit taller so maybe you stash them at 1B so everyone can play .. but this seems kind of short-sighted to spent all this money and purposely put the DSL manager in the position of juggling the lineup from day one to play everyone.
post publish updates: added MLBpipeline class ranks, added links for Nats class from Nationals.com
Sykora remains #1 at least one one list. Photo MASN
Hot on the heels of the Baseball America top 30 list, we get the fantasy-first Prospects1500 site’s list for the system. They’re the only shop that earnestly ranks to #50, and we often get a decent look into the down-stream prospects in our system in the eyes of an independent evaluator.
Prospects1500 is unabashedly a Fantasy site; they say it right in the subheading: “Your comprehensive dynasty League resource.” It caters to hard-core Fantasy baseball leagues who do dynasty drafting, meaning you draft prospects and keep them on your roster like a “real” team. I’ve run out of people even willing to do basic Fantasy Baseball, let alone the diehards who would do a keeper league with 18yr olds who may not show up for 7 years. That being said, it colors their rankings a bit. You’re going to see ceiling valued more than floor, you’re going to see positions of scarcity (i.e. Catchers) pushed up a bit as compared to things like corner OFs, and you’re going to see future save projections come into play with high-leverage relievers. We’ll cover them a bit below.
Here’s the top 50, along with their ranking for the same players last year at this time.
Current Rank
Jan 2025 Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
3
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
2
Not yet Drafted
Eli
Willits
SS
3
5
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
Not yet Traded for
Harry
Ford
C
5
Not yet Traded for
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
6
17
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
7
4
Seaver
King
SS
8
7
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
9
Not yet Drafted
Coy
James
SS
10
Not yet Drafted
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
11
Not yet Drafted
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
12
6
Yohandy
Morales
3B
13
Not yet Traded for
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
14
21
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
15
37
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
16
Not yet Traded for
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
17
12
Caleb
Lomavita
C
18
Not yet IFA signed
German
Marconi
SS
19
Not yet Traded for
Eriq
Swan
RHP (Starter)
20
Not yet IFA signed
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
21
Not yet Drafted
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
22
Not yet Drafted
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
23
13
Victor
Hurtado
OF (Corner)
24
20
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
25
18
Cristian
Vaquero
OF (CF)
26
Not yet Traded for
Ronny
Cruz
SS
27
Not yet Drafted
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
28
Not Yet rule-5 Drafted
Griff
McGarry
RHP (Starter)
29
11
Cayden
Wallace
2B/3B
30
Not yet Traded for
Josh
Randall
RHP (Starter)
31
Not yet IFA signed
Nauris
De La Cruz
OF (Corner)
32
45
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
33
44
Phillips
Glasser
SS
34
Not yet IFA signed
Daniel
Hernandez
C
35
outside top 50
Riley
Cornelio
RHP (Starter)
36
Not yet Traded for
Browm
Martinez
OF (CF)
37
26
Kevin
Bazzell
C
38
Not Yet MLFA signed
Orelvis
Martinez
2B
39
Not yet Traded for
Jake
Eder
LHP (Starter)
40
Not yet Traded for
R.J.
Sales
RHP (Starter)
41
16
Andry
Lara
RHP (Starter)
42
15
Elijah
Green
OF (CF)
43
outside top 50
Dashyll
Tejeda
OF (CF)
44
42
Sir Jamison
Jones
C
45
39
Andrew
Alvarez
LHP (Starter)
46
22
Kevin
Made
SS
47
28
Jose
Feliz
RHP (Starter)
48
33
Marquis
Grissom
RHP (Reliever)
49
Not Yet Drafted
Boston
Smith
C/OF
50
36
T.J.
White
OF (Corner)
Like with the BA list, lots of churn here:
Only 22 of this top 50 were even ranked last year.
Of those 28 new guys:
8 are new draftees
4 are Jan 2025 IFA signings
10 are Trade Acquisitions
1 is an off-season MLFA signing (Orelvis Martinez)
1 is our Rule-5 acquisition in December (McGarry)
2 were in our system last year just outside their top 50
Of their top 50 last year? 18 of the 50 are no longer eligible:
9 graduated/exhausted rookie eligibility
4 hit MLFA status (De La Rosa, Acosta, Choi, Naranjo)
2 were released (Baker, Quintana)
1 was traded (Bennett)
1 was a Rule5 pick we returned (Reifert … remember him?)
1 was DFA’d and claimed (Brzycky)
Furthermore, there were 8 guys ranked in last year’s top 50 who didn’t make it this time:
Tyler Stuart, #14 last year and unranked this year (probably the biggest “Whaaa?” in this ranking)
Rafael Ramirez Jr.
Orlando Ribalta
Armando Cruz
Seth Shuman
Brennar Cox
Andres Chapparo
Brandon Pimental
Ok lets do some quick analysis of the list. Obviously I’m not going to talk about all 50, so i’ll scan down the list and hit some highlights
Sykrora at #1. We just had a list that dropped him to #5, but these guys keep him at 1-1. It’s obviously a projection of him returning 100% to form and getting to the majors in 2027.
The rest of the top5 as expected.
Dickerson way too high at #6, based on his pro debut.
I’d have put Clemmey above King and Dickerson based on what he accomplished at his age.
Our three big prep bonus babies come in at #9, #10, and #21. BA had them #9, #11, and #19 so similar thinking.
The first big surprise was having Linan all the way up at #13. I like Linan that high (I had him #11 on my post-2025 season list), but BA had him all the way down at #23. Big arm, young guy, but 3 DL trips in 2025 give some pause.
Angel Feliz a bit lower than I’d like to see him at #14; I think he’s edge of the top 10.
Jackson Kent, who got some criticism in the last post … is also #15 on this list, same ranking as BA.
Another big surprise: Eriq Swan at #19. BA didn’t even have him in their top 30. I had him too high in my post-season first cut, and early 20s seems right.
Sam Peterson, the darling of the BA list, down at #22. I think he should at least be in the mid teens.
Hurtado at #23 when BA didn’t have him at all. Seems like a bonus amount ranking still. Same with Vaquero at #25.
Wallace and Randall keep their spots in the top 30 here by the skin of their teeth. I think this is about right for both.
They’ve got Mota too low: #32 when BA has him at #20.
Glasser comes in at #33, likely depressed b/c he’s not projecting to be a huge fantasy star.
Cornelio is probably too low at #35; the guy’s on the 40-man roster, which mean’s he’s almost guaranteed to produce in the majors in 2026.
First mention of under-the-radar trade acquisition Browm Martinez (that name is going to drive me crazy). He’s at #36.
MLFA signing Orelvis Martinez at #38: i’m not surprised we don’t see more MLFA edge prospects showing up. He turned 24 just after the season ended, having exhausted his 7 years of service in his prior club. He’s now completely in FA years ahead of where a college draftee would be thanks to the early signing of the IFA market.
Andry Lara at #40. I mean, really? Is he a prospect at all anymore?
Green stays on the list like fellow big $$ signees Vaquery and Hurtado.
Andrew Alvarez way too low at #45 … he should be 20 spots higher.
2025 Draftee Boston Smith debuts on any prospect chart at #49 … thanks to his Catcher eligiblity.
TJ White rounds up the list at #50 … for some reason. He hit .231 repeating High-A for the third year as a corner outfielder … I guess its b/c he’s still just 22.
Best players missing:
Tyler Stuart, as discussed above
Davian Garcia: solved low-A in his first pro season and held his own in high-A rotation for a few turns. I’ll take that over a reliever who got shelled in AAA. He’s 2 years younger than Swan and had better numbers than him .. but Swan is #19 and Garcia is in the 50s?
Armando Cruz: I mean, if we’re ranking Hurtado, Vaquero and Green, might as well throw this guy in there as well.
Harry Ford (not “Henry” as I keep typing subconsciously) debus at #3 on BA’s ranks for our system. Photo via Seattle Times
The first big scouting shop just released their top 30 prospects for 2026, and it’s a doozy. There’s big deltas between theirs and what we know of so far from other shops, lots of recognition of players who had break-out seasons in 2025, and lots of new names from this time last year. Let’s take a look.
I’m going to add in their ranking from 2025 as part of the below table and part of the discussion.
Current Rank
Jan 2025 Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Not yet drafted
Eli
Willits
SS
2
3
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
3
Not Yet Acquired
Harry
Ford
C
4
Not Yet Acquired
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
5
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
6
6
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
7
5
Seaver
King
SS
8
11
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
9
Not yet drafted
Coy
James
SS
10
15
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
11
Not yet drafted
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
12
40
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
13
Not yet drafted
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
14
16
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
15
36
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
16
22
Yohandy
Morales
3B
17
Not Yet IFA signed
German
Marconi
SS
18
8
Caleb
Lomavita
C
19
Not yet drafted
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
20
Outside top 40
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
21
Not yet drafted
Ronny
Cruz
SS
22
Not yet Acquired
Christian
Franklin
OF (CF)
23
Not yet Acquired
Sean Paul
Linan
RHP (Starter)
24
35
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
25
Outside top 40
Riley
Cornelio
RHP (Starter)
26
Outside top 40
Andrew
Alvarez
LHP (Starter)
27
Outside top 40
Phillips
Glasser
SS
28
Outside top 40
Nauris
De La Cruz
OF (Corner)
29
17
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
30
Not yet R5 drafted
Griff
McGarry
RHP (Starter)
So, Here’s some macro facts from just BA’s top 30 today versus one year ago:
12 of the 30 are new to the Organization since Jan 2025
5 from the 2025 Draft (Willits, James, Harmon, Petry, Sime)
5 from Trades (Ford, Perales, Franklin, Linan, Cruz
1 from the 2025 IFA class (Marconi)
1 from Rule-5 in December (McGarry)
2 of the top 30 were outside of the top 30 last year but in the “honorable mention” 30-40 range (Tejeda, Peterson)
5 of the top 30 were not listed in BA’s top 30 (or even their extended top 40) last year (Mota, Cornelio, Alvaraz, Glasser, and De La Cruz)
So, for as much as I’ve criticized the player development of the Rizzo regime … that’s an awful lot of guys matriculating to the majors and being productive parts of the MLB team. Perhaps you can quibble about how much they’re “contributing,” but when you push 9 prospects to the MLB roster in one year … that’s a win. Of course, many of these guys are the ones who are supposed to be contributing: of these 11 graduates, six were 1st rounders and another three were 2nd rounders. I have harped ad naseum about the Rizzo regime “blowing” basically every 2nd round pick (and a bunch of 1st rounders) for a decade straight … but now some of them are actually making it.
Ok, so that being said, lets run through some comments/observations on this list.
#1 Willits has either been #1 or #2 on every ranking since his arrival. No surprise he’s top here. BA has him arriving 2028 at age 20, which is CJ Abrams’ last year before FA. Something tells me we’re not going to get to that point with CJ on this team, which means we’ll be putting a stop-gap at SS (Nunez?) or maybe Willits blasts through the minors Bryce Harper style and is starting at age 19.
BA keeps Susana just above new high-profile acquisitions Ford and Perales despite his injuries last year. Other shops have him perhaps in-between the two.
Sykora slots in at #5, just below the two guys we’ve just acquired. That implies he was #3 before we got these two guys in trade. I took some grief for dropping Sykora to 5th on my own list at the end of 2025’s season … when I republish that ranking in April I probably will adjust it slightly.
There’s probably an implicit “gap” between our current top 5 and even to #6, Clemmey. The next 5 ranked guys are all relatively young as compared to the AA and AAA heavy top 5.
King comes in at #7 … probably on the back of a few hot weeks in the AFL. That seems to be consistent where other shops have him ranked right now. I was very down on King in September, and now have rebounded, perhaps drinking the AFL kool-aid. I mean, we want the guy to succeed right?
Dickerson somehow retains his top 10 ranking despite an awful season at the plate in 2025 and faces a positional conundrum shortly: who plays SS for Low-A next season? Luke may be finding another position. Luckily we already knew he was like a SS/CF coming out of HS.
Our big money RHP 2025 prep kids (James, Harmon, Sime) come in ranked #9, #11, and #19 respectively. James (the 5th rounder) is highest here, over 3rd rounder Harmon (both got the same $$ figure). I know some pundits struggle to rank these kinds of guys: prep RHP are the riskiest of risky in the sport.
The first big out of nowhere name: Sam Peterson at #12, one slot ahead of Petry. This guy blew up in 2025, nearly posting a 3/4/5 slash line in High-A as an 8th round pick the year before. That’d be some found gold right there if he continues to contribute. Also: 18/0 SB/CS in High-A and he plays a true CF. Sounds like a Jacob Young-type (an unheralded 7th round defense-first college bat).
Pinckney at #14 just seems high. I just don’t see where he goes with this organization. He’s, what, 8th on the OF depth chart? (Wood, Hassell, Crews, Young, Wiemer, Lile, Franklin ahead of him): only 3 of them can play at a time. Seems like we should move him.
Lomavita at #18 seems a bit low, and the acquisition of Ford really changes the trajectory of the entirely of our Catcher depth chart right now. I don’t think Ford is on the MLB team to open the season with just a few MLB ABs, but he’ll be starting in AAA. Which means Millas is either on the MLB bench or on the AAA bench. I’m not sure where Adams fits in; he signed a split contract (meaning he has negotiated his minor league salary), meaning they’re anticipating going to the minors … but he has no options left, which means he’ll have to pass through waivers to get off the 40-man. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. My initial guess? Ruiz/Millas in MLB, Ford/Adams in AAA, Lomavita/Romero back in AA, Bazzell/Rombach in High-A, with all the starters just waiting to see if Ruiz can keep his starting job.
Next up on the surprise inclusion list: Jorgelys Mota, 3B in Low-A. He’s starting to get noticed. He’s also part of a major log-jam in Low-A: the following guys are all solid prospects in the 18-20 year old range who play on the right side of the infield: Willits, Dickerson, Feliz and Mota. That’s 4 guys for 2 spots in Low-A where they all belong. Maybe one of them is pushed up to High-A, or maybe they all juggle ABs and IPs in Fredericksburg, maybe Dickerson goes to CF.
Cornelio’s great 2025 finally gets him onto the BA list at #25. He was the Nats Minor League Pitcher of the Year and deservedly gets included in the BA top 30.
Alvarez, who has almost never been considered a prospect, comes in at #26. I’m super curious to see how Alvarez’ 2026 shakes out. Is he really in the mix for a MLB rotation spot? I mean, Small Sample Size of course but in 5 late season starts he had a 2.31 ERA that was decently supported by his FIP (3.39). Do you stick him in the bullpen? Does he have the right kind of stuff to be in a MLB pen? Or, do you put him in AAA again to keep him stretched out? I dunno. Good problem to have I suppose.
Phillip Glasser gets ranked by a major shop for the first time ever, after his Nats Minor League Hitter of the year season in 2025. He’ll be a starting corner OF in AAA in 2026, but he’s got the same problem Pinckney does: positional congestion. Of course, Lile looked completely blocked at the beginning of 2025 as well, then hit so well you kind of have to find a spot for him in the lineup. So, things can change.
Nauris De La Cruz gets the #29 spot after mostly solving DSL pitching this year; final slash line .294/.448/.450. He’ll be state-side in the FCL to start 2026. Hopefully Florida food will help him fill out (6’0″ and 160?!).
Our new rule-5 pick Griff McGarry comes in at #30; he should make the MLB bullpen and graduate pretty quickly.
Notable Players left off the BA top 30:
Eriq Swan: I may have the trade-acquisition over-rated on my list.
Orelvis Martinez, AAA MLFA signing who MLBpipeline has at like #20 right now
Andry Lara: I’ve been down on him for a while but many still hold out hope.
Daniel Hernandez: an interesting omission given that he’s as high as #13 elsewhere and was a big-money IFA signing, but he struggled in his first DSL Season (don’t worry, he was super young upon signing)
Cristhian Vaquero: I’m guessing he’s still hanging around in the 30-40 range on BA’s list, like he does on others.
Josh Randall: Edge of the top 30 type on many lists.
Tyler Stuart: TJ knocks him off for a bit; hopefully can get back.
Cayden Wallace: hard to believe how far he’s fallen. Maybe he can put together a solid season and regain some prospect status. Would love to see him hit to his capabilities and fill the 2B slot in the bigs so we can move some guys around.
Victor Hurtado: that $2.8M in 2024 IFA bonus not looking good
Elijah Green; phew he’s getting up there as our biggest 1st round bust ever, if not already there.
Writer’s note: corrected Ronny Cruz’ acquisition method in the top section; he was acquired in the Soroka trade, not via the draft. Thanks to @Will in the comments for the correction.
