It’s been rumored all off-season, and now a few weeks before Pitchers and Catchers report, our biggest trade asset MacKenzie Gore has been traded. Announced last night, the Nats moved Gore to Texas for a package of 5 prospects.
Here’s a quick look at those 5 prospects, with their new Nats system rank and other pertinent information:
shortstop Gavin Fien; 2025 1st rounder, Age 18. Our new #5 prospect (was Texas’ #2 prospect)
right-hander Alejandro Rosario; 2023 college 5th rounder, Age 24, AA last year, new #11 prospect
infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald: 2025 prep 5th rounder but over-slot bonus, age 20, new #12 prospect
outfielder Yeremy Cabrera: 2022 IFA, just 20, our new #17 prospect
first baseman/outfielder Abimelec Ortiz; 2021 NDFA, Age 3, on 40-man, hit AAA last year, new #24
First glance? I’m sorry, but is this all we could get? One 18yr old 1st rounder, two 20yr olds in low-A, a AA starter who missed all of 2025 AND just had TJ so he’s missing all of 2026 too, and a AAA utility guy? This is a major swing from a risk perspective, and the lack of additional higher-regarded prospects give me pause. The discovery (post publishing) that the 2nd best prospect is out for the entire 2026 season is even more demoralizing here.
I’m really disappointed with this return. We didn’t even get Texas’ best prospect in this deal. Maybe that’s me overvaluing Gore. On the one hand, Gore’s career numbers put him at a 98 ERA+. But at the same time, we’ve seen him be completely dominant for stretches. He’s valuable because he’s being paid a pittance for what he provides as a mid-rotation starter ($2.8M in first year Arb this year, $5.6M this year) and for 2 more years of control. He’s an innings eater who throws mid-90s from the left side; that’s worth a ton of the FA market and should have been worth more in trade.
When he didn’t go in the Winter Meetings, I thought the team should hold on to him until the Trade Deadline, when desperate teams who had lost starters to injury would be overpaying for mid-level starters. I was wrong; the new FO pulled the trigger on a deal they liked. I sense this was an underpay by Texas, but clearly the GM sees these younger guys and liked the deal.
An additional wrinkle: we’ve spoken before about the logjam of young shortstops projected to play in Fredericksburg in 2026 … well we just added two more guys who need playing time. We now add Fien and Fitz-Gerald to Willis, Feliz, Dickerson, and Mota, all of whom are likely projected to Low-A and who predominantly play SS.
What does this mean for the franchise? Insiders and those in the knew already knew this, but the signals have been strong that we’re on our way to bottoming out once again. My “casual Nats fan” pinged me last night with an immediate reaction to this trade, asking why we were getting rid of our best pitcher and I had to break it to him; we’re going to be bad for a while, so buckle up. This latter type of fan is the one who the Nats eventually will need to come back, to buy tickets, to bring the family for weekend games … but I sense a move like this, one which gets rid of one of the few players whose names they even know, is going to turn people off for a while.
I’m always excited to get more prospects into the system, as a prospect-heavy analysis site. Don’t get me wrong; can’t wait to do the spreadsheet work and try to noodle where I think these players will fit in my eventual top-100+ ranking that i’ll publish before the season starts. But I hate trading away assets and not getting enough in return, which I believe happened here.
What do you think? Am I over-valuing Gore? Did we get appropriate return here? Should we have waited til the Trade deadline 2026?
So, this image floated across my Facebook feed randomly the other day, and I was struck by it. I’ve seen these done elsewhere, but never for Baseball rotations. So, i’m in.
Build your rotation. $15 max spend. Here’s my “rules” for the competition:
You have to pick 5 guys: you can’t pick three from the $5 line and say, “the rest are AAA starters”
Consider each pitcher by their peak, not by their entire career. I say this because a few of these guys tailed off badly, or are more known for their longevity.
Ignore the fact that some (one?) of these guys has PED associations. I guess that’s just a concern for Clemens. I didn’t end up picking him anyway.
OK here’s my team:
$5 Sandy Koufax: no better stretch of dominance at the end of his career.
$5 Pedro Martinez: he put up a 291 ERA+ season in the height of the PED era.
$2 Bob Feller: that’s some serious value for $2
$2 Curt Schilling. Twitter comments aside, he was a very good starter. Never won a Cy Young, losing out multiple times to his own teammates, else he’d be a no-brainer Hall of Famer.
$1 Orel Hershiser. Best in the sport for a short amount of time, short enough to cost him the Hall. I’ll take that as my 5th starter.
Toboni has a young exec team; will it work? Photo via IG
Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race. I posted this on 1/1/26, then the site immediately took a dump, but seems to be back now, so lets try this again.
Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.
I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.
Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?
I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.
Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning.
Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)
Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.
Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system
See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?
Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).
I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:
Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?
Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:
At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.
Since he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings, I’m now thinking Gore sticks with us until next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.
Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.
So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.
Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?
Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker/Williams for the 5th.
Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:
Gore, Grey, Cavalli
Griffin locked in as the #4
Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
Alvarez proved he can pitch in the Majors and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen. All have options but it’d seem foolish to put any of them back in AAA.
Herz to the DL
Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.
So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.
I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.
Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.
New GM Paul Toboni has some big decisions ahead. Photo via IG
Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race.
Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.
I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.
Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?
I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.
Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning:
Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)
Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.
Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system
See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?
Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).
I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:
Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?
Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:
At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.
Now, I’m thinking Gore sticks with us til next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.
Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.
So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.
Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?
Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker for the 5th.
Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:
Gore, Grey, Cavalli
Griffin locked in as the #4
Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
Alvarez proved he can do the same and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen
Herz to the DL
Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.
So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.
I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.
Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.
Is Gore staying or going this off-season? Photo wikipedia
One of my favorite posts every off-season is to try to guess what the 2026 rotations might look like, based on 2025 performance, who’s coming back from injury, who the team may or may not pursue in FA, and how many veteran MLFAs the teams needs to fill out our perennially empty AAA rotation. Here’s that off-season thought piece, which of course takes zero FA acquisitions or trades into account as of this date, and makes some strong assumptions on the health of some arms (as noted as we go).
So, Here’s a quick analysis of where we ended 2025 and where we might start 2026 for our entire system. In each section, i’ve got the “candidates” lined up roughly from most to least-likely to be on that team, and then those that make sense to do so are pushed down to the next level.
Yes, it’s way too early to do this. I can revisit this next Spring with updated information/transactions, then use it in early April 2026 posts when we see who the rotations are, to see how decent a job we did predicting. I’m always up for proving how bad I am at player evaluation 🙂
MLB
In House 40-man Candidates: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara, Lao, Eder (Herz, Williams)
Thoughts: Gore, assuming he doesn’t get traded, should be next year’s Opening Day starter. I’m assuming Grey is ready to go for opening day; he’ll have the entire off-season to prepare, and I can’t see any reason why he’d be delayed, even though he only got a few rehab starts in 2025. Cavalli gave the team 10 starts at a near-league average ERA+ after a long time away and had peripherals that give some hope (velocity up from 2022, Babip of .327 meaning he was a bit unlucky, etc). So, if we got Grey back to 2023 numbers when he was an All-Star, and if Gore and Cavalli pitched to their capabilities consistently, that’s a nice little 1-2-3 start to your rotation with some upside. At worse case all three are hovering around a 95-98 ERA+ as they did this year, which are all typical 3rd-4th starters. That’s the good news.
Here’s the bad news: Irvin led the league in Earned Runs and Homers allowed, and finished dead last amongst qualified starters in FIP, fWAR, and a couple other categories. Parker would have been right there with him in dead last had he gotten a few more innings. What should you do with a guy who’s the worst starter in the league? Well duh, you should put him in the bullpen. Lord’s splits as a starter were not good: his ERA was 2 full “points” higher than as a reliever, and I think he needs to go back to the pen, as much as I like his ascension story to the majors. Alvarez’s debut couldn’t have gone better, but is he a MLB starter? Nobody seems thinks so; he got almost zero prospect love in his career, and I sense he’ll be a rotation placeholder, morphing into the classical 4-A rubber-armed multi-role lefty for this team for the next few years until he runs out of minor league options, but he held his own and (for now) is probably the 4th or 5th starter in 2026.
I don’t buy Ogasawara as a MLB-capable starter; I sense he’s heading to AAA to prove (or disprove) my theory in 2026. Waiver pickup Lao actually had great AAA numbers this year as a starter and was only up in the MLB bullpen to fill a hole at the end of the season; maybe he competes for the 5th starter job next year. Same with trade acquisition Eder, though his AAA numbers weren’t nearly as good. I don’t sense Herz or Williams will be ready to go for opening day 2026; certainly not Herz, but Williams’ “brace” surgery may get him back quicker. Even if he was 100% healthy, he was abhorrent as a starter in 2025 despite his near all-star performance the first half of 2024, and I sense he should be in the bullpen going forward. So, for now they’re all out of the running.
So, what does that leave us with? Three acceptable starters and a bunch of question marks. How much is this team willing to spend on the open market? A 66-96 team is more than one Starting Pitcher away from competing, so my guess is, another mid-level $10M/year starter, open competition for the 5th starter job, hope for incremental improvements from Gore/Grey/Cavalli, and hope for some help coming up from guys who are in AA or AAA right now.
Prediction for 2026:
Rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez or a spring training competition for 5th.
Thoughts: First off, we have four guys likely out the door here as being one year MLFAs (Sampson, Conley) who never earned their way up, and another couple guys (Solesky and Shuman) who I believe are be at the end of their 6year runs with us (both will be 28 this offseason, both had 5+ ERAs in AAA, and both seem like they’ve done all they can done in the game). So, I’m assuming these four are gone for consideration next year, at least as starters. The whole Covid year and what it did to FAs still confuses me, so I may have it wrong here, but even if they’re still under contract, neither merits another year in the rotation based on 2025 performance.
Despite being in the MLB bullpen for most of September, Lao, Eder, and Ogasawara have been primarily starters for their minor league careers and one would think the team would want to see if they can continue. Especially Lao, who had really good AAA starting numbers in Seattle’s system before inexplicably getting waived in September. However, I could also see the argument (especially for Eder) of trying them in the bullpen. I’m not sure Luckham has what it takes to succeed as a starter, so I can see him moving into the Shuman role for next year (LR/SS).
So that leaves Lao, Cornelio, and Ogasawara returning to the AAA rotation for another year, joined by Bennett rising up, and then filled out with a MLFA signing. I can’t really see the team dumping the three vanquished starters (Lord, Parker, Irvin) to AAA. We might see Susana back earlier than expected and he could fit in here relatively soon. But opening day 2026, this makes sense.
The team also still has Lara and Adon, both former starters, and one (Lara) still with some prospect love, who pitched their way out of starter roles and who both had abhorrent numbers in the pen in 2025. Could the team return to them as starters? I don’t think so, even if we need them. We need to see if they can contribute at the MLB level out of the bullpen.
Thoughts: The Nats late-season promotions of basically the entire season-ending AA rotation was the latest demonstration of their typical pattern of starter handling: they like to get starters’ feet wet in the new level before the new season, so we basically already know what most of the opening day AA rotation will look like. Kent, Clemmey, and Tolman all excelled in High-A this year, earned promotions, and struggled in short AA stints. They make perfect sense to start in AA, though Tolman seems to be more suited at this point as a multi-role reliever, so I’m projecting him to the pen. Atencio sat the entire 2025 season on the AA D/L: He was assigned to Harrisburg on Opening Day, then hit the DL before he could make a start. If he’s ready to go for opening day 2026, then he’s here. He was already planned on being part of the 2025 AA rotation, so I’d imagine he’ll come right back here when healthy. If not, maybe we’re pushing Tolman back into the rotation.
Choi, the 2024 minor league rule5 pickup, was up and back from AAA without holding onto his spot and makes sense to start in AA again. I’d imagine he’d make sense to start in the rotation until Susana is ready to go: if Susana is ready opening day, then we have to make a decision on one of Choi, Sthele, or Atencio.
When Susana is ready to go, you either push Choi to bullpen, demote Atencio, or send Susana straight to AAA. I mean, why not? He had 11 AA starts this year and struck out 70 in 47 innings; what exactly does he have left to prove there? I’m sure AAA could find room (Ogasawara to bullpen, or something).
Thoughts: Last year it seemed like Low-A was the place where we’d have a traffic jam; 2026 will be High-A. I count 9-10 legitimate candidates for the High-A roster next year. Lets talk about them.
Randall only had 16 low-A starts before getting pushed up to High-A and traded to us, but was also a 2024 3rd rounder from a decent baseball school (San Diego), so I can’t see him going back down; he will be in High-A for sure. Garcia got solid 2024 draft bonus and dominated Low-A before his promotion: he’s guaranteed to be in this rotation again in 2026 based on his “investment.” Meckley is kind of like Garcia but lesser on all counts; less draft bonus, lesser performance; I think he’s a victim of numbers and heads to the bullpen. Swan started this season in LA’s High-A team, finished it in ours, and showed basically the same stuff year long: good arm but wild. I think he repeats High-A but could also get socially promoted if a need arises given. He could also go into the pen and transition to a high K reliever.
Linan only gave us one High-A start before hitting the DL: he had the best numbers of the three trade acquisitions for their prior teams and probably will be one of the first to move up. But what was his injury? I’m putting either Linan on the opening-day DL, based on ending 2025 on the DL. Post publish update: Thanks to commenter Will for pointing this out: Linan has been put on the AFL roster and is pitching in Arizona, so therefore we can assume his injury was minor. I’m revamping the below prediction as a result.
Polanco just turned 24 and just finished a full season making 23 starts for Low-A; he’s moving up, with nothing left to prove in Low-A. He’s gonna either sink or swim in High-A. Tepper spent entire 2025 on the DL and his usage has been all over the road; I’m not sure he’s ready to be a starter, so I’m guessing he goes to the pen. Tejeda suddenly stopped pitching on August 3rd, but was a gun-slinging 6′ 8″ effective starter before that; i’m hoping nothing bad happened, and with Linan confirmed healthy i’ll hedge and start Tejeda on the DL. Trade acquisition Sales finished off a great year in Low-A, pitching well for both his old and new teams despite being “just” a 10th rounder; he’s solved Low-A and has to be here.
I could make the argument that Randall is less effective than Swan and those two switch places. Or, you could look at Swan’s K/9 rate and think ‘high end closer’ and put him in the pen.
If Linan is healthy, what happens? He’s a bit young yet for AA and definitely needs more High-A time, so perhaps he pushes Tejeda to the bullpen. Or, perhaps Tejeda is still hurt from whatever injury he sustained on or about August 3rd. But for now, here’s what i’m thinking:
With Linan confirmed healthy, but Tejeda not necessarily, I’m putting Linan in rotation and Tejeda on DL to start 2026. If Tejeda is indeed healthy … then someone has to head to the pen, because I think Tejeda needs to start for now. I think if this comes to pass, you’re moving Polanco to the bullpen.
Prediction for 2026:
Rotation: Randall, Garcia, Polanco, Linan, Sales
D/L: Tejeda
To the Bullpen: Meckley, Tepper, Swan
Low-A
Candidates: Sullivan, Romero, Johnson, Agostini, Farias, Feliz plus 2026 college draftees Tonghini, Maddox, Moore, Biven, Huesman, Puk
Thoughts:
Sullivan, the 2023 draftee, missed basically a year and a half, but has more or less dominated Low-A in the 9 cumulative starts he’s made there. He’ll turn 24 in May of next year and really does no good in Low-A, but there’s just too many arms so he starts in Low-A again. He returns. Same with Johnson, who made 8 low-A starts with a 5-something ERA this year as a very old 2025 draft signing. Romero made 14 Low-A starts, missing a month or so of time, with middling results; he’s heading to the bullpen. Agostini missed most of 2025 with injury but is a solid prospect; he should return if healthy.
Two new names moving up from FCL for next year should be Feliz and Farias. Feliz is looking like a solid prospect and is starting to get top-20 prospect love; he had a 2.20 ERA in the FCL this year after posting a 2.96 ERA in the DSL last year. He moves up and is an important young arm for us. Farias wasn’t great in the FCL this year but is already 23 and kind of has to move up; i’m putting him as the 5th starter in 2026 unless the team wants to compete him with one of the 2025 college guys.
All six college 2025 draftees are mentioned in Low-A to begin 2026, but I think all of them will go straight to the bullpen based on their college usage and pro potential. We’ll summarize our 2025 draft day posts here briefly; Tonghini was a setup-guy at Arizona. Maddox was a college SEC starter but a senior sign/5.56 ERA guy. Moore was a bullpen guy his first two years in college and pitched his way out of ODU’s bullpen before getting drafted, but wasn’t great as a starter. Biven was a swingman at Louisville. Huesman barely pitched at all at Vanderbilt, and Puk was a multi-inning Opener for FIU. None of our drafted college arms really project to be useful rotation pieces. The best option to start would be either Maddox or Moore if they need an arm.
Thoughts: Harmon and Sime are our two big bonus prep arms from the 2025 draft: I suppose its possible they start in Low-A in 2026, but that typically hasn’t been the MO of this team with its high school draftees. I’m guessing they do XST, ease into pitching, start in FCL and then maybe move up to Low-A later in the summer if they blow away their fellow teenagers in the complex league.
Lunar and Portorreal repeat FCL after middling 2025 results. Both are still relatively young as a 24IFA and 23IFA respectively. I’m guessing they make way for the three more promising arms coming up from the DSL and move to the bullen.
Moving up from the DSL are the three best starter prospects from the island this year in Reyes, Carela, and Gimenez. All three pitched solidly and it will be interesting to see how they fare. Reyes is a bit older as a 23IFA, while the other two didn’t start the year in the DSL rotation but pitched their way there as 24IFAs. None of these three were big money IFA signings, so they’ll be on a short leash.
One thing to keep in mind: the team loves using the FCL as a rehab weigh-station, so it’s entirely possible the “rotation” ends up being 4 guys and a rotation rehab start; they did this for a while this year.
Prediction for 2026:
Rotation: Harmon, Sime, Reyes, Carela, Gimenez
D/L:
To the Bullpen: Portorreal, Lunar
DSL
Candidates: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso, plus 26IFA class
Thoughts: Torrellas, De La Cruz, and Robles finished 2025 in the rotation. Mejia and Carrasco were in the rotation to start 2025 but pitched their way out; they could get another shot but seem more likely to head to the pen. Reynoso is an unknown, having pitched in 2024 then missed all of 2025; i’d guess he’s bullpen bound.
The team signed 6 arms last January; not one of them featured in the 2025 rotation. Perhaps we’ll see some of them step up, but it doesn’t seem likely. Not one 25IFA arm had decent numbers this season. However, they also didn’t feature a single 24IFA signing in the 2024 rotation, preferring to bring them onboard a bit more slowly. The Nats havn’t really focused big bonus dollars on arms lately; just one non-trivial bonus amount in the last several drafts (Jose Feliz for $120k in 2023, then several guys in the 2021 class who are already gone), so it’s little surprise they struggle to find competent starters in the DSL.
Prediction for 2026:
Rotation: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, plus two 25IFA or 26IFAs.
D/L:
To the Bullpen: Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso
Ok, so that’s what we’re looking at. This may change as we do MLFA releases and signings this coming off-season, or if we add/remove players via trade.
I hope I didn’t miss anyone, but let me know if i’m missing someone obvious and/or if you think i’m crazy.
Bennett was just named our MLBPipeline Minor League Pitcher of the year. Photo from OSU
This is the 6th and last monthly review of all our rotations for the 2025, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. For this final post, instead of isolating September’s performance (since the Minor teams only played part of the month), we’ll look at these pitchers’ season-long performance and give the beginnings of some 2026 thoughts as to what next year might look like (a post I like writing a bit later, but which i’ll start the leg work on here).
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
End of Aug 2025: Irvin, Parker, Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez
End of Season 2025: Irvin, Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez, Parker/Gore
Changes in last Month: Gore returned from a late August DL trip and the team did a couple of weeks of 6-man rotation. Then they dumped Parker to the bullpen to go back to a 5-man plan when it was clear Alvarez’ debut wasn’t entirely a gimmick. Then Gore hit the DL again, pulling Parker back into the rotation to finish off the season.
Rotation Observations: The team finished 66-96, third worst in the league (though it won’t matter for the 2026 draft, as the Nats will pick 11th no matter what happens in the lottery thanks to being a revenue payor and participating in the 2025 lottery). A big reason for this record is the rotation; they ranked collectively 27th in total fWAR and 29th in ERA (ahead of only the 43-119 Colorado Rockies, who also get kicked out of the 2026 lottery despite the 3rd worst record in the modern age). Parker was demoted to the bullpen, laying the likely groundwork of being replaced in the 2026 rotation. But Irvin was just as bad, finishing dead last in several categories for qualified starters this year.
For the year, Gore had the best ERA+ of the group at 98, but seemed to tail off as the year went on. Physical Fatigue wearing down as a long season went on? Mental Fatigue of playing for a crap team? Lord’s splits as a starter were pretty bad all in all; he was 2 full ERA points better as a reliever. Cavalli’s return was on a par with Gore’s from a performance perspective, a good starting point for 2026. Alvarez had a 2.31 ERA and a 3.39 FIP in his five September starts: that’s something that clearly earns him a shot at next year’s rotation, even if most would think its unsustainable.
Bullpen comments: For the season, most of our existing bullpen was either mediocre/league average, or god-awful. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of cattle call we’ll have for replacements. Or if we have one at all: maybe its just a Rizzo thing to try to build bullpens that way. However (and this kind of buries the lead of my 2026 rotation prediction piece), I feel like 3/5ths of the rotation at the end of this year heads to the 2026 bullpen, perhaps buttressing it and giving us some performance next year.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, Ogasawara
End of Aug 2025: Alvarez, Conley, Luckham, Sampson, Cornelio
End of Season 2025: Sokesky, Sampson, Shuman, Eder (Luckham DL, Conley and Cornelio restricted)
Changes since end of last month: The last month of AAA was chaotic, with lots of last minute paper moves to move guys on and off the restricted list or the DL to finish the season. Alvarez got deservedly called up, he was replaced by Eder coming off the DL (which he hit almost as soon as we traded for him). Then, Luckham hit the DL, replaced by Shuman. Cornelio and Conley got stashed on the restricted list at season’s end: they were replaced by Solesky coming back off the DL briefly and then the end of the season hitting before they could return Cornelio. So, really, the “rotation” for Sept was primarily Sampson, Conley, Cornelio, Luckham, and a grab bag of starts from a slew of others.
Rotation Observations: 18 guys got starts in AAA this year, 12 of which were actual AAA starters (3 were rehab starts, 3 more were “Openers” in bullpen games). Of those 12, I’d only categories a couple as even being competent in terms of performance: Alvarez and Ogasawara (not surprisingly, both ending the season in the majors). The rest were a slew of ERAs in the 5’s and 6s (if not higher). I’d be expecting a wholesale reshuffle of AAA next season. We’ll likely we’ll be seeing a big contingent of 40-man arms pushed down to AAA in 2026 combined with the typical Nats cattle call of veteran 30-something MLFAs like this year’s Pilkington, Sampson, and Conley.
Next guy to get Promoted: Nobody on this list pitched well enough in aggregate to push for even a shot at the 2026 MLB rotation via a ST invite, though (again, burying the lead on a future post) Cornelio likely is getting added to the 40-man to avoid Rule-5 and may be in MLB camp. But, his 8-game stint wasn’t fantastic to finish out 2025 and will start 2026 in AAA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: I’m guessing 2025 MLFA Sampson and Conley’s time here is done. Solesky may be at MLFA as well, depending on the deal he signed before last season. Shuman turns 28 in December and was a 2019 draftee, which I believe means 6-years MLFA for him as well, so we should see lots of churn in this rotation next year.
Bullpen comments: There were a slew of Sept callups from the bullpen, but perhaps more notably is which 40-man arms the team left in AAA to finish out the season. Salazar (Waiver claim), Loutus (waiver claim), Brzycky (NDFA), and Lara (19IFA) all had relatively awful AAA numbers this season, and one has to think they’re amongst the first guys to get DFA’d when the team needs to find its first four slots for its 60-day DL guys in the off-season moves coming up (which happens right after the World Series concludes). Of the rest, only Davila had anywhere close to decent numbers.
But, this is more of an indication of just how much the AAA team has fed the MLB bullpen this year: 8 of the 9 guys in the MLB bullpen at year’s end was promoted up this season. So, bravo for the production.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora at end of month.
End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
End of Aug 2025: Bennett, Susana, Tolman, Kent, Clemmey
End of Season 2025: Bennett, Tolman, Kent, Clemmey, Choi
Changes since end of last month: The only move of September was to put Susana on the DL with thankfully a non-arm injury, and replace him with Choi.
Rotation Observations: The performance of the guys in the Harrisburg rotation was awesome this year, with stellar season-long performances from Bennett, Cornelio, Susana, and Luckham for big chunks of the year. Clemmey and Kent’s promotions didn’t go very well for the last 5-6 turns of the season, but they both more than earned their spot and will be 1A and 1B in next year’s rotation. I would imagine that Susana misses the first part of the 2026 season with his Lat surgery and will get a month in AA once he’s going before heading to AAA next year where he belongs. Sykora and Stuart are both likely out for the entirety of 2026. Tolman (like Bennett) missed huge chunks of the last few years and had a rough debut in AA, but should be there to start 2026.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett likely has done “enough” to start next year in AAA; he turns 25 in December, lost all of 2024 and a huge chunk of 2025 to injury, barely pitched in 2023 as well, and its time for him to get a full season in.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Choi was demoted out of the rotation and only put back thanks to injuries, but his overall numbers really weren’t that bad on the season.
Bullpen comments: there’s definitely some promising arms in the AA bullpen; Schultz, Huff, Vasquez, and Amaral all were promoted up from High-A this season. Schultz and Huff made spot starts and threw a ton of multi-inning appearances.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejeda and Garcia late.
End of Aug 2025: Sthele, Garcia, Meckley, Randall, Swan plus a slew of spot starts
End of Season 2025: Sthele, Garcia, Meckley, Randall, Swan
Changes since end of last month: None; the last month was very stable.
Rotation Observations: Sthele was the only guy to go the whole season in the rotation: 7-7, 4.22 ERA, 1.11 whip, and a 82/24 K/BB in 138IP. Is that enough to get promoted? Probably not, but do you have him repeat High-A? Two of our three High-A starter acquisitions (Randall, Swan) finish off their seasons on our High-A team giving the Nats mediocre-to-bad stints. Garcia & Meckley were both Nats 2024 draftees; Garcia a bit more heralded (6th rounder $425k bonus) than Meckley (12th rounder, $150k bonus), but both finished off with middling High-A numbers after good (Garcia) to mediocre (Meckley) Low-A numbers.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sthele could get socially promoted; not sure what he’s got left to prove in High-A, even if he may not cut it in AA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: None of these guys are getting sent back down; its either the rotation or the bullpen at this level
Bullpen comments: I have two main comments about the High-A bullpen: first, we know Wilmington is a pitcher’s park in a relative pitcher’s league, so there’s lots of guys in Wilmington with decent numbers (most of them already promoted to AA). Of those ending the year on the roster, Shout-out to Aldonis, Arguelles, and Glavine perhaps as having halfway decent seasons.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
End of August 2025: Polanco, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson, Sales
End of Season 2025: Polanco, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson, Sales
Changes since end of last month: None.
Rotation Observations: Polanco was the sole guy to make it the entire season in the Low-A rotation, turning 24 at season’s end. He was good but not great; 3.71 ERA, 1.25 whip, .225 BAA, but got passed over several times to get moved up. Romero came off the DL and then proceeded to walk more guys than he struck-out for the season; he turns 24 before next season and is at a cross-roads. Sullivan finished the season healthy and with a 3.23 ERA in 7 starts. Our 2024 draftee Johnson is a super interesting case, getting just $2k to sign out of UMBC and dominating (as he probably should have) in the FCL, but struggled in a month or so in the Low-A rotation to finish out the season. Lastly trade acquisition Sales finished off a great year in Low-A, pitching well for both his old and new teams.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sales by performance, Polanco and Johnson by age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Romero probably has pitched himself into a corner.
Bullpen comments: By Season’s end, the “bullpen” in Fredericksburg was pretty bloated, with 12 bullpen arms to go with the 5 rotation guys. When FCL ended, the team called up a slew of guys from the affiliate team to go along with a handful of the 2025 draftees. None really got any semblances of useful stats.
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: none; season ended in July.
Rotation Observations: The team moved up Johnson and Farias, left the other three guys in the FCL once the season ended, which is as good of an indication of what those guys did this year.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
End of Season/End of Aug 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela with Gimenez
Changes since end of last month: none; Season ended in August.
Rotation Observations: Basically, there’s 3 good starter prospects here (Reyes, Carela, Gimenez) and three who’ll be back next year (De la Cruz, Robles, Torrellas). Reyes looked the most promising, but all three solid starters should come stateside for 2026. Depending on how many IFA arms we sign next January, Robles is probably the first to go.
That’s it for 2025 Rotation reviews.
Next up (and I was kind of writing it as I did this piece, which is why this one is so late) I’ll do a too-early glance at what the 2026 rotations might look like.
Susana walks off the mound after injuring his arm. I’m hoping he’s wiping away sweat and not tears. Photo via milb.com
This is the 5th monthly review of all our rotations for the 2025, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis.
I popped into baseball-reference.com to start this work, and realized we’re now 30 games under .500. The Nats went just 9-19 in August, including an 8-game losing streak to finish out the month to go along with our best starter hitting the DL. There’s no sugar coating it; this team has taken a significant step backwards from “the rebuilding roadmap” that led them from horror in 2008 to glory in 2012. I’m not sure what’s next.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
All seasonal stats quoted are as of 8/31/25, though we mostly focus on the past 30 days of stats.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
End of Aug 2025: Irvin, Parker, Lord, Cavalli, Alvarez
Changes sinceend of last Month: Two big changes. Our Ace Gore hit the DL at the very end of the month with what’s being described as “minor shoulder inflammation” and he hopes to return this season. On the one hand; why bother returning? We have less than a month left and we’re in last place. On the other hand, if the team wants to flip him this off-season, he really needs to get back into the rotation and not end the season on the DL. However … if you’re an interested team, did the price to acquire Gore this coming off-season just take a massive hit? Yeah it did. Honestly, for those who want to keep Gore this may be a godsend of an injury timing. This may guarantee he stays with the Nats until next trade deadline, when presumably nothing has changed, we’ve spent no $$ this coming off-season and we’re 10 games under .500 once again.
Elsewhere in the rotation, Ogasawara gave us two predictably bad starts covering for Williams before Cavalli was deemed healthy enough to get out of AAA. Gore is set to be replaced in the September rotation by long-serving AAA starter Andrew Alvaraz, which is a great recognition of the work he’s done for this team at AAA and I hope he has a decent debut.
Rotation Observations: Gore’s August was about as bad as his July, so maybe the DL trip will be helpful. Irvin had an 8.78 ERA in August, he leads the league in homers allowed, and looks like he’s ready for a vacation. Parker now leads the league in losses thanks to an 0-5, 10.21 ERA month. Lord’s move into the rotation has not been good: 5 starts, 7.06 ERA. As much success as he had in AAA as a starter, I think the team has discovered he needs to stay in the bullpen. Lastly the most important development; how did Cavalli look? I mean, not great all things considered; he had 5 starts, a 5.11 ERA, a 1.581 whip. 22/7 K/BB, 6 homers in 5 games. However, he was the best Nats starter of the month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Parker is pitching himself out of the 2026 rotation, if he hasn’t already.
Bullpen comments: There’s not much joy in Mudville. The Washington bullpen collectively has a -0.2 fWAR for the season at this point and had a collective 4.88 ERA for the month. In other words, they’re just as bad as the starters.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, Ogasawara
End of Aug 2025: Alvarez, Conley, Luckham, Sampson, Cornelio
Changes since end of last month: Lots of moves this month. Solesky hit the DL, replaced by a long-overdue promotion of the 33-yr old Sampson from AA. Cavalli and Ogasawara both got promoted up, replaced by similarly promoted Luckham and (most importantly from a farm system perspective) Cornelio.
Rotation Observations: Alvarez finally gets the promotion after one last solid month, giving AAA 5 starts with a 2.96 ERA. 33-yr old Sampson looked excellent in 5 starts, but begs the question, So What? Anyone in AAA over the age of 30 is there for one reason: to sop-up meaningless minor league innings that our own prospects couldn’t fulfil. So, when 31-yr old Conley posts a 7.50 ERA for the month, i’m looking for him to get replaced. As for actual prospects, Luckham gets another shot at AAA (this is his 3rd try) and at least kept his ERA under 5.00 this time. Lastly; Cornelio has made it to the minor’s highest level after an excellent two-promotion 2025 (his MILB picture still shows him in Wilmington); 5 starts, 5.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .277 BAA. Not bad, something to build on. I’ve maligned Cornelio’s development for years, but now the 7th rounder is in AAA to stay.
Next guy to get Promoted: Alvarez was the most deserving, and is now in MLB. Next? Would Sampson and his middling K/9 rate get shelled in the majors?
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Solesky hit the DL so he’s off the table to get cut. We’re now into the last few weeks so frankly nobody’s getting cut at this point, but the two 30-somthing arms Conley and Sampson are basically finishing out the string to MLFA in a few weeks.
Bullpen comments: We now have five 40-man arms in the AAA bullpen, soon to be six when they re-demote Mason Thompson. What a churn. Salazar, Brzycky, Loutus, Fernandez, Lara, and Thompson. Are any of these guys going to produce going forward? Some of these guys have BAAs that would lead the majors.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
End of Aug 2025: Bennett, Susana, Tolman, Kent, Clemmey
Changes since end of last month: A slew of moves here. Luckham and Cornelio promoted up, replaced by High-A promotions Kent and Clemmey (two big development promotions). Choi was mercifully dumped out of the rotation, replaced by fellow LR/SS Tolman (also promoted from High-A). Lastly, Susana came back off the DL to replace opener starts and one-offs from the likes of Huff, Schultz, and Sampson, but more on Susana in a moment.
Rotation Observations: Bennett finally in AA … and he dominated this month. 5 starts, a 0.77 ERA. They’re still limiting his IP per start, which will prevent him from winning any POTM awards since he’s not qualifying for any wins. One nit on Bennett; he’s not getting any Ks. In August he got just 12 Ks in 23ip. Clemmey’s AA debut was one to forget: a 13ERA in his first 3 AA starts. Well, welcome to the big time kid. He turned 20 like 6 weeks ago so i’m not worried. How about another top prospect in Kent? His AA debut is somewhere in between Bennetts and Clemmey with a 6-ERA, but at least he’s keeping his K rate up. We saw Kent’s performance start to wane a bit in High-A before he got promoted, so this isn’t a surprise either. He’s at 113ip in his first full pro season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rested before the season is out. Tolman has earned two promotions this year to get to AA at age 26 after a lost season to injury; he struggled this month but has some time.
Lastly, lets talk about Susana. We got an UCL scare earlier this year but it turned out to be non surgical. He rehabbed, then gave us five AA starts with some eye-popping numbers (in 5 starts he had 41 Ks in 21 innings… Jeeze). However … he grabbed his arm and fell to the ground in his last start, a move that normally spells Tommy John doom. However, reports are that he suffered “only” some soreness in his triceps and not in his elbow. So… we’ll see. I wonder if he pitches again this season.
Next guy to get Promoted: I got both Sampson and Cornelio promotions right last month. This month? Not as straight forward; there’s nobody at this point with 3 weeks left who should be promoted. Bennett needs to finish out the season w/o anymore tumult, and the rest of the guys need to not get hurt.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Choi was demoted out of the rotation as I predicted; if another needs to go it seems to be Tolman, who I’d guess will be a reliever next year.
Bullpen comments: Daison Acosta was deservedly promoted after a dominant August (21/3 k/bb in 11 ip) as the AA closer. Junior Santos has taken over as closer and has been nearly as good.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejada and Garcia late.
End of Aug 2025: Sthele, Garcia, Meckley, Randall, Swan plus a slew of spot starts
Changes since end of last month: Lots of changes here. Four of the five starters from July were promoted (Clemmey, Kent, Tolman, plus returning Susana to AA), so we needed four new guys. Luckily the Nats acquired a ton of arms at the trade deadline and could slot in two new acquisitions here in Randall and Swan immediately. Then, Garcia continued in the rotation from the tail end of last month. Meckley was a mid-month promotion.
Rotation Observations: First off, lets talk about the new trade acquisitions Randall, Swan, and Linan. Linan made one start, gave up 3 R in 3IP and hit the DL. Randall made 5 starts with a 6.17 ERA though better peripherals. Swan had a 5.03 ERA but a low BAA … likely because he can’t find the plate (14 bb in 19ip). Sthele continues to get by on smoke and mirrors and a 4 K/9 rate. Garcia’s success in Low-A has not translated to High-A; he has more walks than Ks in Wilmington. Lastly, Tejeda made one start at the beginning of the month, gave up 4 in 5, then … has done nothing. No DL trip, no mid-week work, nothing. I dunno why they’re not DL-ing the guy if he’s not pitching. But whatever. Not a lot of joy in the High-A rotation this month.
Next guy to get Promoted: We got Tolman right from last month. This month nobody deserves a promotion.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele reverted back to having a “bad” month this time, but really nobody stood out as needing action at this point.
Bullpen comments: Anthony Arguelles had 15 Ks, 0 walks in 8 appearances/10 IP this month. Can’t ask for much more than that. Pablo Aldonis was just as good: 13/1 K/BB and a 1.20 ERA.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
End of August 2025: Polanco, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson, Sales
Changes since end of last month: Meckley bumped up, replaced with new Trade acquisition Sales.
Rotation Observations: Polanco was competent this month; solid numbers, nothing to write home about. Romero had 19 Ks and 18 walks in 19 innings, yet somehow had only a 2.12 ERA for the month. Amazing. Both Sullivan and Johnson are too old for the level and have solid seasonal numbers, even if August’s weren’t that great. Most important development: new guy Sales looked decent in his Nats debut: 5 starts, 3.86 ERA, 29 ks in 23 ip.
Next guy to get Promoted: Liam Sullivan has one of the best K/9 rates in the minors and is 23 in Low-A. Move him up. He’s a lefty who can start or soak up innings and could move fast.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luke Johnson may not be long for the rotation.
Bullpen comments: I’m not sure what Merritt Beeker needs to do at this point to get the heck out of Fredericksburg. 38 games this year, 1.85 ERA, 78 Ks in 63 ip as a 23yr old 2024 draftee. Um, why isn’t he higher up?
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Just a reminder that FCL ended; no more analysis. The team did promote Farias and Johnson post-season and they’ve both gotten Low-A time.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
End of Season/End of Aug 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela with Gimenez
Changes since end of last month: The last few weeks of the season saw solid middle reliever Greyson Gimenez given a couple of starts, otherwise the DSL rotation was unchanged from last month.
Rotation Observations: There’s no splits for DSL guys, so i can’t isolate the last month without doing a ton of XLS work that frankly I don’t want to bother doing since I barely consider these guys prospects until they show up in Florida. Heading into 2026, i’m most interested in seeing Reyes, Carela, and Gimenez moving to the FCL.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside. This is exactly what I wrote last month and it remains true for the final month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The two moved out of the rotation so far this year (Mejia and Carrasco) are both 25IFAs, where as everyone else in the rotation right now is a 23 or 24IFA.
Bullpen comments: Juan Lopez remains the only reliever that looks like he could move stateside right now, but with FCL done it won’t happen until next spring.
Cornelio is having himself a great 2025. Photo via Nats Player Dev Twitter account.
This is the 4th such review of all our rotations, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. Given that the trade deadline just passed, as we go level by level I’ll discuss who is gone, who we added, and guess what may happen next.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
Changes sinceend of last Month: Two big changes: Williams got hurt, hit the DL and was announced to need a “brace” procedure: boom done for the year. He was replaced in the rotation by Lord, completing Lord’s amazing journey to the major league rotation as an 18th round pick. Then at the trade deadline we moved Soroka. This led to the recall of Ogasawara, who will take up the 5th starter spot. It was either Ogasawara or Cavalli, who has done nothing to impress since getting off the DL.
Rotation Observations: Gore’s July was .. not good. Ironic in that he started to get trade buzz just as he was driving production wise. 6.75 ERA for the month, but he didn’t get moved so now he can focus on being good the rest of the year so we can trade him this coming off-season. Irvin improved but still had a 4.55 ERA month. Parker had a 6.04 ERA in 4 July starts. Lord is being eased back into starting so is only going 3-4 innings a start, so we’ll withhold judgement. Ogasawara remains tbd.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ogasawara; I can’t imagine he’ll hang in the rotation and we may see Cavalli or a call-up at some point soon.
Bullpen comments: Our bullpen is now almost entirely guys who we’ve promoted from our minor leagues this season. Here was our opening day bullpen versus today (this includes 8/1 callups Ribalta, Loutus)
Opening Day: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
What churn. Finnegan traded, Lopez released, Sims released, Poche released, Salazar demoted, and Lord to the rotation. We still have a few 40-man options in AAA (Thompson, Beeter, and Eder), so I’d imagine we’ll be seeing the new guys next.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, tbd (was Ogasawara)
Changes since end of last month: Shuman was dumped out of the rotation (as predicted last month) for Ogasawara, Sampson was demoted to AA after getting hurt and spending some time on the DL. Ogasawara as of this writing hasn’t been replaced on the AAA roster, nor have the other promotions (I have Rochester at just 24 of 28 slots). I’d guess either Shuman back or Sampson promoted back to AAA as the 5th guy.
Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had a couple of clean starts in July after coming off DL. Alvarez and Conley’s month was 4.00 era-ish and decent if not spectacular peripherals. Solesky struggled badly; ERA above 9.00, whip above 2.00. The big news is that Cavalli just doesn’t seem to have it right now; 7.50 ERA in 5 July starts. He gave up 33 hits in 24 innings; that’s just not good enough. If he’s working on something fine, but if this is what we have, that’s not good.
Next guy to get Promoted: Though Cavalli is the sole starter on the 40-man, if a need pops up I’d add and Promote either Alvarez or Conley. Conley is 30 with no MLB time so that’d be a great story, but Alvarez deserves it too.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Solesky; the MLFA who we got out of indy ball got crushed this month, and with some upwards pressure bubbling up from the lower levels, he may get slid out of a job.
Bullpen comments: Bravo to Pilkington for finally getting promoted after being excellent all season. Same with the likes of Loutus and Brzycky. As for the rest of the bullpen … not much good to report.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
Changes since end of last month: A busy month for the AA rotation: Conley got promoted, and he was mostly replaced by Bennett. Stuart pitched for a month and then hit the 60-day DL (not good). He was mostly replaced by a couple of relievers doing “opener” gigs. At the end of the month Sampson returned from AAA D/L to make a start. Lastly, the big news: Sykora made one July 5th start, hit the DL, and now he needs Tommy John. Dagger.
Rotation Observations: Susana is doing rehab starts after 2 months of radio silence; so we’ll see what happens. Luckham and Choi struggled badly in July. Bennett’s introduction to AA has not started smoothly. Sampson’s one start isn’t enough to go on, and at 33 it’s kind of ridiculous for him to be in AA. The bright spot? Frigging Riley Cornelio, who continues to tear through the minors in 2025. 1.66 ERA and 0.88 whip in AA in July. I’ve been questioning this guy for two years; suddenly he’s one of our system’s best arms. Bravo.
Next guy to get Promoted: I got the Conley promotion right from last month; this month I’d say that Sampson needs to go back up just based on age/experience. But on performance, its Cornelio. I don’t know if he’s ready yet, perhaps he continues for another month and finishes things out in AA with an eye towards starting next season in AAA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The answer for the 2nd month in a row is Rule-5 guy Choi. Though Luckham may have reached his ceiling as a player.
Bullpen comments: Erick Mejia’s journey back to the majors as a reliever looks great in AA: a spotless month; 7 games, 8ip, 1 hit. I’d put him in AAA right now. Junior Santos also had a zero ERA for the month, and Thomas Schultz looks great. If they move a couple of the AAA guys up, I could see a few of these AA studs moving up in turn.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejada and Garcia late.
Changes since end of last month: Bennett made 3 more dominant starts and finally got pushed up to AA where he belongs. To take his place the team moved up both Tejada and Garcia from Low-A.
Rotation Observations: As noted, Bennett posted a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts and got moved up. Clemmey continues his great season: 2.81 ERA in his 3 starts in July. Kent showed a bit of fatigue in his first pro season, driving up to a 4.85 ERA for the month. Tolman continues to be excellent and I’m not sure why he’s not permanently installed in the rotation. Garcia and Tejada’s intro to High-A wasn’t pretty; they have the rest of the season to figure it out for 2026.
However, we’re about to see some major changes here, because the team acquired THREE new High-A starters in Randall, Swan, and Linan. By my count, there’s now at least 10-11 guys on the Wilmington roster who are “starters” … which is twice what we have room for.
Next guy to get Promoted: We got Bennett right from last month; Next we’ll see Susana returned from “rehab” to AA. If it was me i’d probably move up Tolman, who’s lefty, 25 and can be both a starter and a reliever.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: For the second month, nobody really. Sthele pitched well for the month, Kent isn’t going anywhere despite having a 4.60 ERA for the season (maybe the answer is, Kent gets an invisible “injury” and gets shut down to make room for the new guys).
Bullpen comments; nobody really notable pushing for a promotion right now.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: After months, we got some movement here. Tejeda and DGarcia (finally) moved up, Roman (finally) axed from the rotation with his 8+ seasonal ERA. They were replaced with Sullivan off the DL and Johnson finally getting promoted up from the FCL despite being 23.
Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Garcia were excellent in July and were worthy to move up. Polanco was solid again but now faces a huge crush of starters in our Low- and High-A teams. Sullivan’s debut was excellent, which is nice to see. Johnson’s 2nd low-A start was bad. Lastly Romero got hit.
However, the team has created a crush here by promoting the FCL’s two best guys at the end of the month in Farias and Feliz (the FCL season ended on July 30th), plus added Sales in the trade window. So Low-A now has 8 guys for 5 spots. (post-publish correction, thanks FredMD; the Nats promoted Angel Feliz the SS, not Jose Feliz the pitcher).
Next guy to get Promoted: They moved up Tejeda and Garcia … now there’s no room in High-A even if someone in Low-A deserved it.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: We got Roman right from last month: i’d guess the team moves Johnson to the bullpen and might sideline Romero to make room for the new additions.
Bullpen comments: They finally promoted Cranz and Aldonis. Baldo need to go next; he’s 25 and isn’t being challenged in Low-A.
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: The season ended with Sullivan back in Low-A and Johnson doing the last few starts.
Rotation Observations: Sullivan overpowered rookie ball as expected. Feliz finished off an excellent FCL season with another month of sub 2.00 ERA. Portorreal was solid but didn’t earn the promotion at the end of the season. Lunar struggled. Lastly Farias had another iffy month but got moved up to low-A nonetheless, perhaps to see if he can cut it in Low-A the rest of the way in a sink or swim move.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan and Farias got moved up at the end of the season in kind of age-related moves. Feliz should have moved up based on performance.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: n/a; end of season.
Bullpen comments: they moved up Kane as they should have. Nobody else in the FCL bullpen really pitched much worth of analysis in July.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
Changes since end of last month: Carrasco moved to the bullpen, replaced by Carela. Only 7 guys have made starts this year for DSL.
Rotation Observations: There’s no splits for DSL guys, so i can’t isolate July versus the whole year. Reyes and Carela have the best season numbers so far, both with sub 3.00 ERAs. Reyes is a 23IFA and is already 20 so no surprise here. Robles and De La Cruz have both been ok but wild. Torrellas needs more time.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside. This is exactly what I wrote last month and it remains true. This is a perfect example of why the loss of Short-A is troublesome.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The two moved out of the rotation so far this year (Mejia and Carrasco) are both 25IFAs, where as everyone else in the rotation right now is a 23 or 24IFa.
Bullpen comments: Juan Lopez remains the only reliever that looks like he could move stateside right now, but with FCL done it won’t happen until next spring.
We’re now three months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month. We’re starting to really see some trends that we can actually believe … even though many adhere to the “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” camp.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
Changes sinceend of last Month: none: we’re at our opening day rotation for the entire month and have shown pretty remarkable consistency in the rotation so far this year for a last place team.
Rotation Observations: We started June with a 28-31 record, and we’re ending June with a 35-49 record. That’s not great, Bob. The team went just 7-19 after a 15-12 May that had fans maybe, possibly thinking we’ve turned the corner. The pitching staff didn’t help. Gore continues to pitch like an Ace and may be pushing towards an All Star appearance. Soroka’s return from the DL resulted in a very solid 3.50 ERA month as he builds trade-value. Irvin’s June was forgettable: 7.00 ERA and 1.65 whip in five starts. Amazingly he won one of them. Parker improved from last month but is still pitching like a 4-A starter in general. And then there’s Williams, who at least has been consistent: here’s his month to month ERAs: 5.70 in April, 5.68 in May, and 5.55 in June. With little run support he’s now turning into an automatic out every fifth turn, and is making his off-season contract extension looking worse by the week.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Williams … though there’s not exactly a clamoring for a rotation spot coming up from AAA right now, so everyone’s safe.
Bullpen comments: With a 7-19 month we’re now entrenched in last place and may soon pivot to the “who can we trade” analysis. Finnegan remains one of our leading trade pieces (as he was last year before one bad game scuttled his trade value). Lord and Henry should be untouchable based on player control and performance. New acquisition Chafin has been solid but is hurt. The rest of the pen is a mess of 6-ERA rookies and veterans that aren’t helping this team hold on to leads. Unfortunately there’s not a ton of help coming from AAA since we’ve already done a purge.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: None until the last day of the month, when Sampson hit the DL and will be replaced by Ogasawara for July, which I’m totally OK with since Ogasawara is on the 40-man and presumably could provide future help, whereas Sampson is a 30-something MLFA innings eater.
Rotation Observations: Cavalli was officially taken off the MLB DL and optioned to AAA, and in five June starts he posted a middling 5.64 ERA/1.52 whip effort. 18/12 KBB in 22 innings. That’s not enough Ks and too many BBs to make a push upwards. In the comments a few weeks ago there was a discussion on how long Cavalli would have to be “kept down” in order to get an other year of service time … well there’s certainly no urgency right now, and concerns are starting to creep into play here for sure. As for the rest of the rotation: Alvarez and Solesky put up nice months but both seem to have the same problem: they’re good enough to get by in AAA but seemingly not pushing for a promotion. As for the rest: 33yr old MLFA Sampson was ok in a few starts (but doesn’t have any swing and miss) but hit the DL recently. Lastly Seth Shuman basically pitched BP all month with an 8+ ERA and giving up 10 homers in 5 games.
Next guy to get Promoted: none. If I had to promote someone to make a spot start in the MLB it probably would be Pilkington.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Shuman. He may have reached the end of the line. He’ll be a 6yr MLFA and has been in our system since 2019 and I just don’t know what else they can do here. There’s several AA arms who really should be in AAA and it seems like its just a matter of time before Shuman gets the axe.
Bullpen comments: Pilkington’s proven to be a multi-use guy and had a sub 1.00 ERA in June. Also, dare I say it but former 40-man hurler Joan Adon had 22 Ks in just 13IP in June in a middle relief role; do we roll the dice with him again in the majors? Marquis Grissom Jr. has settled down since his promotion and may be putting his name into consideration soon. Long-time farmhand Peterson got cut soon after his promotion to AAA: his AAA stat-line: 3 games, 1 total Inning pitched: 13 hits and 14 runs allowed. Phew. Weigel wasn’t much better, giving up 18 runs in 7 June innings; kind of curious why he’s still around.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
Changes since end of last month: Saenz demoted to the bullpen officially, replaced with Stuart. Then at month’s end the AA rotation has two new names who have to fit in somehow in Lara and Sykora.
Rotation Observations: Not one peep about Susana’s UCL issue; hit the DL 5/10/25, now we’re at 6/30. Here’s how I expect this to go: Susana “rehabs” for months in Florida, gets a start at the end of the season, lasts 2 innings, leave the game with diminished velocity, and the team announces TJ surgery the next day. Seen it a thousand times.
Lara finished rehab and was demoted to AA, but his first start back was awful. Then, top prospect Sykora was promoted to make his first start at month’s end, which looked bad on paper but which seemed to be more like death from a thousand paper cuts. Heading into July we seem to have 7 names for 5 spots but no real obvious choices as to who makes way. Luckham had a middling month but has proven he’s solved AA at various points. Conley had a very solid month in the rotation … and is a 30yr old in AA for the 4th season. Not sure what we’re proving here. The best arm this month was Cornelio, with a 1.96 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip, but he hasn’t appeared in nearly two weeks for some reason.
Next guy to get Promoted: I’d promote Conley ASAP to see if he can hang in AAA; if he can great, if he can’t then he’ll have proven that fact three years running and I’d cut ties. Luckham has nothing else to prove in AA and needs to get moved up at this point. After that, if Cornelio puts up another month like this i’d move him up too: at 25 no better time than the present.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: They already moved Saenz out of the rotation. What is Choi giving us right now? Minor league Rule5 guy with a 5+ ERA repeating AA? In a pinch I’d dump him.
Bullpen comments: Davila and Acosta both had solid months: Acosta should since he was in AAA to start. The AA bullpen now has 5 guys promoted just this season, so they need a bit of time to settle. Mejia’s conversion to relief isn’t going well, with more BB than K. Junior Santos has been unstoppable as the closer and as a 23yr old MLFA might be worthy of moving up soon.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
Changes since end of last month: Sykora (finally) promoted to where he probably should have been a month ago. In four High-A starts Sykora had a 1.66 ERA, a 0.74 whip and 32/6 K/BB in 21ip.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey continues to be solid: 1.45 ERA for the month. Bennett is being eased back into things and hasn’t given up a run in 3 small starts. Sunday Sthele is Steady Eddy; 3.60 ERA in four starts, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. Kent took a big step back this month, with four starts in the 6 ERA range. I can’t ding him too much, since he’s starting in the High-A rotation as a 22yr old pro. Tolman got one spot start and added that to a nice month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett; once he’s stretched out he just has to go to AA. At 24 he’s lost so much time already. After that, Clemmey is making a big case to move up as well despite his age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody deserving right now; Sthele is the least performant but he’s got solid 5th starter numbers for now.
Bullpen comments; Miguel Gomez has gone from LR/SS to closer and has been very solid. He was demoted down earlier this year and might warrant a return. 2023 NDFA Arguelles didn’t give up a run this month. As mentioned, I like what Tolman is doing and wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the rotation.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
Changes since end of last month: Brayan Romero off the D/L and into what basically is now being treated like a 6-man rotation. The other 5 guys have been intact since opening day.
Rotation Observations: Garcia & Meckley, both 2024 draft picks, were excellent in June, though the team seemed to “manage” Garcia’s workload a bit with only 3 starts. Fellow 2024 draftee Tejeda was also very solid, with a 3.68 ERA and a 20/2 K/BB ratio. Neither Roman or Romero were particularly impressive this month, both with bad peripherals and poor K/9 rates. Polanco, the elder statesman of the bunch at 23, took a step back this month but has been decent all month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco as the oldest guy, needs the challenge of the next level. I’d keep the rest of these 21yr olds in place for now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month. Romero didn’t light things on fire either but it was his first month back.
Bullpen comments: I like what we’re seeing from 2024 11th rounder Beeker; spot start, solid numbers. He’s already 23 so he should get moved up honestly. Cranz was 7 for 7 in save situations and needs to be promoted at this point.
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
Changes since end of last month: Johnson was promoted, had a solid low-A start, then demoted and had 4 relief appearances. Odd usage. Liam Sullivan, who started last year promising before a season-ending injury, did a month’s worth of rehab starts here and may get pushed to Low-A officially soon.
Rotation Observations: Feliz looks solid; 13/1 K/BB, 1.96 ERA. He’s only 19 though, so no rush. Liam Sullivan had a 0.90 ERA; he needs to go up.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run. Portorreal: what are we doing here? 8+ ERA, 23 hits in 13 innings, just 6 walks. Not good. Lunar is showing some promise, Faries not so much.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. Same as last month, turns 23 this month, averaging nearly a walk an inning. Portorreal isn’t impressing anyone either.
Bullpen comments: Not sure why 23yr olds Johnson or Kane are still in FCL. The rest of the relievers here are a hodgepodge of IFAs with just a few innings not worth analyzing.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
Changes since end of last month: Mejia and his 10.61 ERA replaced by Torrelles and his 1.29 ERA
Rotation Observations: First month through and DSL’s rotation looks promising. We have three guys putting up solid numbers in Reyes, De la Cruz, and Torrellas. Robles has a .179 BAA but those hits keep turning into runs, inflating his ERA. Only Mejia (already in the pen) and Carrasco (a .400 BAA and a 9.69 ERA so far) have really struggled.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Carrasco
Bullpen comments: There’s a couple arms worth moving to the FCL, including a 20yr old 25IFA in Juan Lopez who has 23 Ks in 13ip and needs another challenge.
We’re two months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
Changes sinceend of last Month: Soroka came off D/L, sent Lord back to the bullpen.
Rotation Observations: We have an ace (Gore), we have a #4 starter (Irvin), and we have three guys pitching their way out of the rotation (Parker, Williams, Soroka). Soroka gets a pass b/c he’s guaranteed $8M. Williams gets a pass (for now) because he’s guaranteed even more. Parker Is just looking hittable right now. His best start in the last month was a 5.1 IP 3run effort against Atlanta; otherwise every one of his outings is a bunch of runs year, fail to get out of the 5th, tax the bullpen, etc. Every time Cavalli looks unhittable in AAA, Parker is one step closer to a demotion.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Parker, as per above.
Bullpen comments: The team just cut ties with Lopez ($3M off-season signing) after jettisoning Sims ($3M) and Poche ($1.4M) earlier in the month. All money well spent. I think its safe to say Rizzo’s “throw money at a bunch of FA relievers” strategy for the 2025 bullpen has officially failed. On the bright side Finnegan has looked solid, Henry has been amazing, and five of the eight bullpen arms are home grown. Finally.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: Lara hit the D/L, and basically saw his starts picked up by Cavalli and then eventually MLFA signing Sampson. Cavalli ended his rehab stint and was optioned.
Rotation Observations: Alvarez, Shuman, and Sampson all had a full month in the rotation, and were all mediocre to bad. ERAs in the 5-6s, Whips in the 1.5 range. Solesky has improved from last month and has earned himself another month in the AAA rotation. Cavalli’s back; in 4 May starts as he builds up arm strength going about 4IP each, he’s got 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP. Once he’s stretched out someone’s making way in the majors. They now have 3 starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara), all of whom would be preferred to most of this crew.
Next guy to get Promoted: Cavalli as per above.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sampson; he’s a 33yr old MLFA who will either push for a MLB promotion or exercise whatever opt-out is inevitably in his contract.
Bullpen comments: There’s just nobody in the AAA bullpen right now pushing for a promotion; they’ve moved up Rutledge, Henry, and Brzycky at this point and they seem to have exhausted internal options for fixing the MLB bullpen.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
Changes since end of last month: The biggest news of the month is Susana going down with a Grade 1 UCL sprain. Grade 1 is supposed to be mild, with “microscopic tears” or a “slight stretch.” We’ll have to see what happens next. Susana and Soroka’s rehab starts have been replaced with the promoted Cornelio and the MLFA signing Conley (with rubber-armed Gomez doing a slew of spot starts/openers).
Rotation Observations: the AA rotation looks solid. Choi had a great month: 1.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP. Maybe he’s got the confidence to return to AAA. Luckham has been solid but not as dominant in the K/9 range. Cornelio’s rise to AA has been merited and he’s holding his own so far, to my surprise after complaining about him for years. Conley, a 30yr old signed from a Mexican team, hasn’t been bad. The only guy still struggling in Saenz, same as last month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Choi.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz
Bullpen comments: Powell didn’t give up a run last month. Peterson was excellent and got promoted mid-month. Cuevas has really shined since moving to the pen. Davila remains too old for AA and needs to get moved to AAA. Maybe our MLB bullpen solutions are actually a bunch of guys dealing in AA right now.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
Changes since end of last month: Cornelio moved up, and the team have a slew of guys spot starts: 10 different players got a start in May for this team while they waited for Sykora and some stability.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey had a great month; 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks. If he can get his walks down he may be a 19yr old in AA. Stuart’s rehab has gone well; he may force a bump in AAA soon. Kent has been solid, if a little unlucky. Sykora’s High-A debut has been laughably good: 2 starts, 8IP, 15Ks, 2 hits. Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th; uh-oh. Sthele was the worst full-time starter, though some of their SS/LR types (Arias and Caceres) were awful.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. There’s zero use of having a guy with a 16 K/9 rate stay in a-ball for any longer than he needs to. Clemmey after that; i don’t care how young he is.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele
Bullpen comments; Amaral had a nice month. Not much else to report; when most of your best WHIPs belong to starters, it tells you your pen needs work.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett, Sykora
Changes since end of last month: Again, none really. A couple of these guys had their starts pushed or did tandem starts to give bigger names a couple of starts, but the Low-A rotation remains basically the same from opening day.
Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Polanco looking good. Solid months, ERAs in the 3s, good K/BB rates. Polanco looked the best in terms of keeping runners off base. Garcia had a nice ERA but had 17 walks in 25IP; that’s got to improve. Meckley had more walks than Ks and had his turn skipped at the last day of the month, so maybe something’s there. Roman was the real struggle for the month, with an ERA nearly 9.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco, as he was last month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month.
Bullpen comments: Last month’s highlights have all been promoted: Bloebaum, Amaral, Mejia. Good for the team to push these guys and not was their bullets in low-A. Cranz (finally) had a good month: 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Bruni had 22Ks and 11 walks in 11 innings; interesting.—
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
Changes since end of last month: This is the first month of the FCL; no real major changes occurred in the first month other than to see a bunch of rehabbers return home.
Rotation Observations: At the end of last year, the rotation was Sanchez, Romero, Colon, Portorreal, and Moreno. Sanchez went straight to Low-A’s full season DL, Romero is on the Low-A DL but doing rehab starts in FCL, Moreno is still in FCL but hasn’t pitched an inning since 2023, and Colon is in the FCL bullpen putting up a 12 ERA so far, so only Portorreal returns.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run.
Next guy to get Promoted: Johnson.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. He’s 22 and can’t find the plate. Put him in the pen and give one of these over-performing relievers a shot.
Bullpen comments: We talked about Johnson; Kane (a 23-yr old MLFA) needs to move up for the challenge as well; zero runs allowed during May.
That’s it for May 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.
