House is the highest profile NRI this year.
Photo via primetimesportstalk.com
You know we’re getting close to Spring Training when the annual press release goes out announcing Non-Roster Spring Training Invitees (NRIs). The Nats announced the initial crop this week, immediately forgot at least a couple guys who have ST invites on their transactions page, and probably will add more as they sign up veteran FAs, but for now here’s who we have:
Outfielders: Daylen Lile, Andrew Pinckney, Franchy Cordero (left off press release)
The list includes a huge chunk of our projected AAA roster: i’d say of the 16 NRIs listed here, 14 of them will be in AAA to start the year. In fact, the only ones who won’t be in AAA are Susana and Romero, both probably heading to AA.
NRIs are important. Believe it or not, more than a dozen of 2024’s NRIs eventually played in the majors last year, some with pretty significant roles. So this group collectively will play a big role for the 2025 team. Traditionally 3-4 will make the team out of ST to open the season, while others get called up.
NRIs generally fall into several categories:
Top Prospects getting their first shot with the big boys: this describes at least Susana, Lomavita, House, Morales, Wallace, and Lile. I suppose Pinckney is here as well since he doesn’t qualify for any of the other categories.
Starters to eat split squad innings: I would throw Lord and Stuart in this bucket, along with Adon.
Catchers, because we need people to catch all these ST bullpen sessions: Knizner, Romero, Lindsley
Veteran MLFAs who were promised the NRI as a condition of signing: Helvey, Plington, Cordero
Under-the-Radar relievers who might be useful middle relievers: Acosta, Grissom, Sinclair
Is Adon still a prospect? After four option years, what exactly does the team need to see here? Perhaps they’re planning on converting him to relief, so he’d fall into category #4.
The team has already signed a dozen MLFAs for 2025, but only a couple have NRIs. This in and among itself is a message, but some of the non-NRIs are surprising.
We have a MLFA 28yr old catcher CJ Stubbs on the AAA roster right now: no NRI.
Andrew Alvarez is slated to be in the AAA rotation; no NRI.
We’ve heard people rave about reliever Carlos Romero: no NRI.
The only lefty reliever in AAA Garvin Alston? no NRI.
We’ve signed several aged 28-30 MLFAs who got assigned to AA straight away, an indication they’re just org arms.
We’ve also signed several younger relief arms this month, all in the 23-25 range, newly 6-year FAs after being young IFA signings; these kind of guys may need more seasoning and aren’t candidates to join the bullpen.
A few rule-5 candidates we talked about at length but no NRI include Solesky, De la Rosa, Made, and Shuman, which probably tells us what we need to know about the organization’s thought about these guys.
Who’s likely to make the team out of this list? Probably a bit early to predict, but I only count 9 total relievers on the entire 40-man right now, one of whom is out with TJ. So, there’s opportunities here for especially the arms who can slot into bullpen spots.
We didn’t really talk about the top prospects in camp. Of them, House seems the most likely to win a starting job, based on the lack of a FA 3b signing. We’ve litigated him to death; no he’s not ready, he probably needs to prove himself for a half season in AAA. The rest of the prospects all seem slated for either AA or AAA to get more time in the minors. I’m intrigued by Morales’ potential … but the team has basically bought itself enough 1B/DH cover that it seems unlikely for him to break camp.
Lets hope we get 2024 Trevor and not 2023 Trevor. Photo a via usatoday
We had some pretty clear cut needs heading into the off-season. Starter depth, a power-hitting 1B/DH option, maybe a 3B, and some bullpen help. In order to fill these spots, the team has turned to some familiar faces.
The Nats have announced a couple of veteran player signings in the past couple of days, both with very recent ties:
So, what do these moves tell us? In no particular order:
Pitching prognosis with moves so far:
With both Williams and Soroka signed, not only do the Nats not trust that Cavalli is ready to go to start 2025 … they think he may not becoming back for a while.
They now have 7 healthy starters for 5 spots to open the season, and Herz in particular may have just lost his starter role. We’ll have a good old 5th starter competition all spring.
No, I don’t see them doing a 6-man rotation.
I’m guessing we go Gore, Williams, Irvin, Parker, Soroka as the rotation to open the season, with Herz in AAA and Cavalli either on the DL or in AAA himself.
Yes, Soroka was in the bullpen last year; they didn’t spend $9M to have a middle reliever; he’s gonna be tested as a starter to see if he can reclaim his prior starting glory.
No, I don’t believe they’ll put Williams in the bullpen; not on a 2yr deal and not after his all-star level performance to open last season. They’re going to see if he can repeat his performance of 2024. And if he can, he’ll be trade bait unless this team is in the Wild Card race in July. He should be the #2 starter of this squad behind Gore going opening day.
Bats prognosis with moves so far:
Lowe for a reliever we got off the garbage heap is found money (Robert Garcia == waiver claim in August 2023 from Miami). Fantastic trade. I don’t care if Lowe isn’t a long term solution at 1B; we can replace Garcia easily enough (he had a negative bWAR in 2024).
Bell clearly will be the primary DH, and since he’s a switch hitter he could slot in at 1B when the team faces a lefty and put a RH bat like Chapparo or Yepez in the DH slot for the day.
Bell was a solid 3-win player for us a couple years ago but has now played for 5 teams in 3 years and i’m sure wouldn’t mind some stability. But, he also has to know exactly what he’s signed up for with a one year deal; a chance to shine first half and earn a trade to a contender.
These two moves probably dump Chapparo or Yepez to AAA; neither should start at 3B (Tena for now) and there’s not enough bench bats to go around. Assuming we’re looking at Adams as the backup C (no options), Baker as one utility infielder (Nunez can go hit .200 in AAA), either Garrett or Call as the 4th OF, and then either Chapparo or Yepez as that 1B/DH bench bat, there’s just one bench spot left, and we havn’t talked about House winning the opening day 3B job and/or acquiring a veteran 3B.
Do these moves make us better in 2025?
Williams alone should be a 6-win player if he pitches as he did last year. But that’s rare air; lets assume he regresses from his 2.03 ERA of last year but still gives us 5-win pace performance all year.
Soroka would replace Corbin’s -0.9 bWAR season with something positive; even his 4.74 ERA season was positive on the bWAR stable, and if he falters we replace him with Herz (who put up a near-1 win season in his 19 starts).
So that’s a swing of at least 4 full wins just in the rotation, before considering expected incremental improvements from guys like Gore and Irvin, who were improving all year.
Meanwhile on the bat side; we got negative bWAR out of both 1B and 3B, two of your most important bats on the field. We should get something positive out of what we have now for 3B, and we’re clearly improving 1B so that’s a 2-3 win swing right there as well.
This is how you go from 71 wins to 77 wins without much fanfare. Then you count full seasons and growth from Wood and Crews and suddenly you’re a .500 team.
Lastly…
As much as I don’t want to admit it, the signings of Bell, Williams, Soroka, the acquisition of Lowe … these are not “we’re competing in 2025” moves. These are “i’m acquiring flippable assets for the 2025 trade deadline” moves once again. There does not seem to be a 9-figure FA signing in the cards to shake things up, because .. well why would we at this point? There’s no reason to spend money unless you can see the target in sight. That’s what we learned in 2011, the last time Rizzo was architecting a dynasty.
I suppose it is only fitting that, one year after we “won” the 2024 draft lottery (but were ineligible because of being classified a “big market team” despite the fact that we get the exact same amount of RSN revenue as the Baltimore Orioles by rule, and they’re considered a “small market team” that literally gets Competitive Balance picks every year … but I digress), the Nats “won” the 2025 Draft Lottery and will pick 1st overall in the 2025 draft. We had the 4th best chance (around 10% overall) of getting picked, and we got lucky for the 2nd year in a row.
We’ll now have the 3rd #1 overall pick in the history of the franchise. The first two worked out pretty well … so expectations are pretty high. Based on the current state of the qualifying offer and other comp picks, the Nats will pick 1st overall, then have the 49th pick overall in the 2nd round, the 87th overall pick in the third round, and then roughly every 30 picks there on out (some teams are already forfeiting 5th rounders with QO-assigned FA signings, so we won’t know the exact draft order for the top 5 rounds for a while).
Bonus pools will be announced later, but by virtue of having #1 overall, we’ll have a massive pool to work with. The first pick alone will probably be worth close to $11M (last year’s #1 overall draft slot was worth $10.5m), which is important because the #1 overall pick will not sign for anywhere close to that figure (Travis Bazzana, last year’s 1-1 pick, signed for $8.95M, which gave Cleveland an extra $1.5M to work with), which means the Nats may have some major flexibility to sign another Luke Dickerson-type in the upper rounds and essentially get an additional 1st-round quality guy.
So, all that said, who is in the mix right now for 1-1 overall in 2025? Here’s a few names that have been in play since I started tracking the 2025 draft class. Remember, lots can change in a draft class once the baseball season starts next spring, but for now, there’s two HS guys and a handful of college guys at the top of most draft boards.
Prep guys:
Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS, Oklahoma. The brother of 2022 1-1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday. Ok State commit. Consensus 1-1 pick as of Dec 2024 pre 2025 season on several draft boards.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Elite Charter Academy HS, Temecula, Calif. Vanderbilt commit. 90-93, reaching 95 as HS sophomore. Top prep arm on board, projecting top 10 of 1st round, improving late 2024.
College guys:
Jace Laviolette, RF TAMU. D1 Fresh AA. 20/20 season as a freshman. Risen to be 2025 1-1 candidate with 29-HR sophomore season.
Jamie Arnold, LHP Starter from Florida State. 11-3, 2.98 ERA as sophomore in ACC.
Tyler Bremner, RHP UC Santa Barbara. blew up in 2024, going 11-1 with 2.54 ERA and 104/21 K/BB in 88 IP. Top RHP on board.
Cam Cannarella, SS/CF Clemson. D1 fresh AA, ACC Fresh of the year. slashed .388/.462/.560, Team Usa. Took a small step back sophomore year, went from 24SBs to zero (why?) but power stayed put.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina. slashed .367/.456/.609 with 17 homers, Sun Belt Fresh of year, then continued in Cape with Wood to vault to top 10 status. Numbers fell across the board soph season, dinging prospect status.
One last comment. I’ve already seen some comments about Laviolette in particular, which are along the lines of, “well we already have plenty of outfielders, we should draft for need.” YOU DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED IN BASEBALL. This isn’t the NBA, where you draft someone to immediately go into the 5-man starting lineup and you have to consider who you have in your current point guard position and how long they’re signed for; this is baseball, where players move around positions, where they may look great now but hit a plateau at AA or AAA, or get hurt and miss two seasons (ahem Cavalli). You draft the Best Player Available and if/when that player starts to push an existing veteran, so be it; you cross that bridge when you get there.
Right now, on December 11th, 2024, the #1 pick projection is absolutely Ethan Holliday. His brother destroyed the minor leagues, was the #1 prospect in baseball for most of 2024 and debuted as a 20yr old. Ethan is not his brother: he’s 4-inches taller and projects more like a corner bat/corner outfielder like his father versus a 6-0″ agile defender like his brother. If you told me Ethan would have his dad’s career right now, I’d take it (44 bWAR, 300homers, career .300 hitter with power). Sign me up.
It’s great to dream on a player … but you just never know what can happen in a spring baseball season. The #1 overall pick we get may be someone we’ve never heard of. Paul Skenes went from a decent Air Force hurler in a nothing conference to a guy putting up circus strikeout numbers at LSU in a year, to being the All Star Game starter and nearly winning the Cy Young in his rookie season … so we’ll see what happens as the spring season unfolds.
All that said, this is a great event for the franchise and could absolutely help lead the team back to a decade of prosperity.
Just putting that out there. $51M/year AAV. If a WAR on the FA market is worth $9M (that’s the going rate from a few years back, i’ll bet its more now), then Soto will have to put up about 80 WAR in the next 15 years to “earn” this contract. Or maybe you can’t think about this contract in those terms, because he’ll sell a million jerseys in the next decade, and he’ll be the cornerstone of a franchise that should be able to buy its way to the playoffs each year. Or, perhaps in about 12 years time when Soto has around 700 career homers … the media blitz alone will be worth the money (he just finished his age 25 season and already has 200 homers, and he averages 35/year … do some quick math and factor in that he’s not even in peak slugging years yet and look out).
Honestly, i’m surprised he went with the Mets. He was such a perfect fit in the Bronx. Right attitude, perfect field, all the history, the pipeline of prospects in the DR, etc. But you don’t hire Scott Boras to take the second best offer (reportedly 16yrs, $760M).
I know we’ve made comments about how the Nats 2025 payroll could have absorbed all these contracts and still have room to spare. I think i’m more irritated they let a core of players go that could have carried the team into the next rebuild; Turner ($27M/year), Harper ($26M/year), Schwarber ($20M/year), basically the Phillies 1-2-3 hitters, all Ex nats. But, you take the good with the bad. We gambled on Strasburg and lost, but cut bait on Rendon and won. Nobody has a crystal ball. Was letting Harper go the right move? We offered Soto $440m, he said no, so we traded him for a cache of players that are (or are projecting to be) crucial to us being relevant again (MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Jarlin Susana). Was that a good trade? Absolutely. Should this team have committed $51M/year to Soto? Hard to say, given the fact that we were competing against two teams that print money (NYY and LAD) and another team owned by a profligate hedge fund billionaire who could give a sh*t about the luxury Tax.
Draft lottery tomorrow; we project to pick 4th, could move up, will pick no worse than 10th I believe. There’s some decent names in the top 10 projecting already; once we know where we’re picking i’ll throw up a 2025 draft proffer to show what’s likely to be in the mix at our slot.
Kieboom set to leave the org as a 6year MLFA after hitting a AAA ceiling.
Photo via Federal Baseball
A critical day in the off-season calendar of baseball every year happened earlier this week; five days after the end of the World Series (11/4/24) all “6-year minor league free agents” get cut loose. The Universal Player Contracts (UPCs) that players sign upon turning pro allow for six “renewals” before players must be either put on the 40-man roster or are declared free agents. This means that every player who:
was Drafted in 2018 or before
was an IFA signing in 2018 or before
was a 2024 MLFA signing
… and who didn’t sign a multi-year deal of some sort already this off-season or earlier this year
I count 27 players cut loose, including these notable names to long-time Nats farm watchers:
Technically Meneses and Rucker were on the 40-man, were outrighted, and by virtue of their signing dates were immediately declared MLFAs.
Reid Schaller: 3rd round pick who just never was healthy. Had higher hopes for this guy.
Tim Cate: 2nd rounder who spent time on the 40-man but just couldn’t solve AAA.
Mason Denaburg: 1st rounder and one of our team’s biggest 1st round busts in terms of accomplishments. Stuck around for years after he should have been cut loose based on performance in a blatant example of the team not wanting to “waste” its signing bonus.
Carter Kieboom: 1st round pick, former top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who mystified the industry by not being able to convert fantastic batted-ball skills in AAA to the majors.
Israel Pineda; long considered an heir apparent catching prospect but who ended up bouncing around the minor leagues in 2024.
Trey Harris, trade bounty for Ehire Adrianza in 2022 but who never really did much for us.
Aldo Ramirez, trade bounty for Kyle Schwarber in 2021 and who was supposed to be a decent SP prospect. Blew out his arm, missed two years, never really pitched again. Too bad; Schwarber was a solid trade prospect and should have fetched something of value for us longer term.
Rodney Theophile, who looks like he could be a promising SP prospect (2.33 ERA in 9 AA starts to close out 2024). Surprised the team didn’t try to resign him before hitting MLFA.
As far as I can tell, the team has already done some re-signing of a few of its MLFAs; the following should be listed as FAs based on their draft/signing status but are still listed as active:
Daison Acosta: AAA Middle Reliever, a 2023 minor league rule-5 pickup but a 2016 IFA signing initially
Erick Mejia, AAA utility infielder, who was a 2022 MLFA signing/2012 IFA signing.
Viandel Pena High-A backup SS, a 2017 IFA signing but who is just 23.
Bryan Caceres, High-A starter who was a 2017 IFA signing out of Panama
Yoander Rivero, High-A backup middle infielder, also a 2017 IFA signing.
Jose Colmenares, Low-A backup Catcher (2018 IFA)
Jeremy De La Rosa, just promoted AA outfielder (2018 IFA)
Jose Atencio, High-A starter (2018 IFA)
Joan Otanez, Low-A middle reliever and 2018 IFA
Bryan Sanchez, also a Low-A middle reliever and 2018 IFA
Samuel Vasquez, High-A middle reliever and 2023 rule-5 guy
Kevin Dowdel, a 2024MLFA but a 2023NDFA so he probably falls under the UPC for a while despite being a MLFA.
I’m not a complete expert on the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I do find it interesting that many of these are 2018 IFAs: is there an additional year offered to these players b/c of Covid? Do they get an extra year of control b/c they were so young when they signed? Did all these 2018 IFAs not eve play in 2018 so therefore their UPC renewals started in 2019?
Furthermore, two minor league rule-5 guys seemingly should have been cut loose but who are still present; is there a different guideline for rule-5 pickups? Nonetheless, even if all of these players just simply signed new deals to stay with the club one more year, there’s definitely a few that i’m glad are still here. Acosta could be a decent lefty option for the MLB pen, De La Rosa was once a higher ranked prospect who is at least in AA, and Atencio was a very solid starter in Wilmington and i’d like to see where he goes.
The system/big board now shows 147 players under contract in the Minor leagues, including a complete gutting of the AAA pitching staff. Just five arms sit on the AAA roster right now; the rest were 40-man backups for MLFAs. We only have 11 relievers in total on the 40-man right now, which implies to me that we’ll be signing a slew of veteran relievers this off-season, and that we’ll have a cattle-call of 1yr/MLFA/NRIs this coming spring to make up the bulk of the AAA staff.
Year four of the rebuild is complete. The team was flirting with .500 well into June but just couldn’t hold it together once they lost their best starter. From the trade-deadline forward they went 22-30 to end the season at 71-91, a .438 winning percentage.
Here’s a quick summary of where we are in the rebuild:
Year 1: 2021: moved Turner, Scherzer, Schwarber, et al. Finished 65-97. Earned 5th overall pick in 2022 draft (Elijah Green)
Year 2: 2022: moved Soto and Bell, finished 55-107, Earned 2nd overall pick in 2023 draft after losing lottery, got Dylan Crews.
Year 3: 2023: Improved to 71-91, dropped to 10th in 2024 draft thanks to new CBA rules despite winning lottery, got Seaver King
Year 4: 2024: Finished 71-91 again.
Our 71-91 finish, combined with the White Sox getting the same treatment we got last year (i.e., being a big market team that is bad two years in a row getting kicked out of the top 10) and Oakland getting kicked out of the lottery as well (they’re a revenue recipient that’s been in the lottery two years in a row), we stand to benefit by moving up a couple of slots of lottery odds.
Tankathon.com has the current reverse order of draft standings, showing us in 4th place/4th best lottery odds. We can pick no worse than 7th, but can move up to pick #1. (all the draft rules are at the bottom of the tankathon page).
We’re a ways off of from the 2025 draft, but we are starting to see some commonality for the names at the 2025 draft boards. Its looking like a college-heavy first round right now, even though a prep kid could go 1-1 overall. If we’re in the top 7 though, we’re in line to get one of these names right now:
Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS. Brother of Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina; .347/.432/.564 first two years at CCU as a plus defensive Catcher.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. 1st team AA, Friday starter for FSU. 159 Ks in 102ip in 2024, co-ace for US Collegiate National Team this summer with Bremner.
Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson Freshman ACC POTY, .363/.440/.560 first two college seasons while playing with injury.
Devin Taylor, OF (CF), Indiana. .357/.449/.660 with 20HRs his sophomore season.
Nolan Schubart, OF Oklahoma State. Ridiculous 1.351 OPS in 2024. Huge slugger potential.
There’s also a couple of other prep kids in the mix for the top 10, but something tells me we’ll be taking a college player this time around and not a project. We don’t “need” Bodine or an outfielder necessarily, would love to get one of these two college arms. The top of the class certainly is looking outfielder heavy right now. I like the connection to Schubart, an Oklahoma kid (we seem to take a lot of players from that region) who could mash his way up, but BA has him slipping into the 20s for the class so he may not really be in the conversation for the top 6-7 of the draft. I like a slugger outfielder who could project as a 1B/LF/DH rotation kind of guy, but it has to be a major slugger.
Anyway, lots to discuss this off-season. I’m not sure how much i’ll “cover” the playoffs this year due to other writing commitments, but we have options, rule5, and other fun stuff to cover coming up.
He’ll be wearing this uniform for good. Photo via Crews’ instagram page.
With a bit of advance fanfare (news leaked on Friday 8/23/24 for his 8/26/24 call-up), the cornerstone of the Nats rebuild Dylan Crews has been called up.
He’ll take his place in an outfield that started the year Winker/Rosario/Thomas and which is set to end it with the all-prospect, all-under 24, all pre-arb set of players Wood/Young/Crews. I didn’t think we’d get to this point until at least May of 2025, and honestly I thought a year ago it’d be Hassell instead of Young, but here we are.
Crews’ AAA line in total (.265/.340/.455) doesn’t really look that dominant, or that worthy of getting called up. Even his improved August numbers (.289/.356/.513) bely a bit of a patience problem (just 5 walks in 18 games). But, consider that Bryce Harper got called up with pretty middling AAA numbers (.243/.325/.365) and went on to win the NL ROY in 2012. Speaking of Rookie of the year, the timing of the call-up should be just enough to preserve Crew’s rookie status (150 PAs) for next year while getting him some big league looks as the team plays out the string.
And why not call him up now? Even if Alex Call hadn’t hurt his foot, it makes zero sense to play anyone else for extended periods of time in the OF at this point. Blankenhorn? We’ve already outrighted him once. Garrett? The fact that he remains on the 40-man but has been passed over multiple times for obvious outfield vacancies should tell us everything we need to know regarding the state of his career after last year’s gruesome leg injury, unfortunately. Meneses? Can he even play the outfield? Gallo? why is he even still on the team at this point? In the final game before his call-up, the Nats rolled Gallo out to start in RF and we got the most Gallo-esque performance possible: 4 PAs, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, and he now sports a season average of .165.
So, call him up, sell some tickets, let him get licked in meaningless games for a 4th place team playing out the string, and plan on 2025 come out firing with all our young guns in the lineup (Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, Young, etc).
Lots of questions about Abrams this week Photo via dcsportskings.com
I have not done this in a while. I used to do this near weekly post series when former Nats beat writer Bill Ladsen would answer fan questions. Now he’s moved on and we rarely get any of the known beat writers addressing any fan questions … except for long-time beat man Mark Zuckerman. Zuckerman periodically does a q&a session in the form of comments on a post. Fans post questions and Zuckerman answers them.
So for fun I thought i’d try it. Here’s some of the main questions asked and how I’d answer them. I’ll go from the bottom up. I post the “question” (sometimes editing for clarity), put my response, then put Zuckerman’s response summarized.
Q: Who would you expect the Nationals to add to the roster and who would you like to see them add yourself?
A: If they’re just doing existing 40-man players, the two most obvious players to add would probably be a starter (Rutledge) and an outfielder (recall Meneses). The starter would help manage innings limits for the young guys, and the OF can cover for the guys we traded (Winker, Thomas). If they’re going to add new players to the 40-man roster to do roster expansion on 9/1, then the obvious choice is likely to add Crews at that point and maybe reward Lord? Maybe not; still seems too early for Lord. Zuckerman kind of hedged, saying maybe Crews, maybe Tena/Chapparo, maybe Rutledge, maybe Williams/Cavalli coming off the DL.
Q: Wood has more than held his own at the plate but his defense in LF has been suspect so far. How long until he’s moved to his more comfortable spot in RF? I vision him eventually manning 1st base. Sooner, rather than later.
A: Um. LF is far, far easier to play than RF. If he can’t handle LF, he’s going to be a massive liability in RF. Its small sample size, but indeed his defense so far across the board is bad: DRS of -4 (that’s 4 runs cost in 274 innings, which projects to -20 DRS for a full season) and a UZR/150 of -26. Those are both really, really bad. Luckily, he’s 6’10” and would make a perfect 1B. My guess is this: once we have enough top-quality OFs in the majors, Wood makes way. Who will that be? Who knows: we still have a pipeline of OFs in the minors who could force their way into the conversation: Hassell, Lile, Pinckney, and Stone Garrett are all relatively close, while guys like Vaquero, Green, Cox, and 2024 draftees are further away. Zuckerman asked Martinez if Wood would move to RF once Thomas got traded and he said no … intimating that the Nats believe Crews will take RF upon promotion and the OF will be Woods-Young-Crews for the forsee-able future.
Q: Should they just DFA Corbin at this point? He seems to be getting worse as the year goes on. Trevor Williams could hold that spot for the remainder of the season
A: Nope. As discussed in the July rotation review post, thanks to the injury issues our three possible replacements face (Grey, Cavalli, Williams), the high likelihood is that Corbin stays through the end of the season. Now we’re close enough to 9/30 that our young pitchers like Parker and Herz (and even Gore to some respect) will need to skip starts to keep IP low. Even if Cavalli or Williams magically re-appeared, you’d still keep Corbin in the pen to provide this service until his $35M salary is exhausted. Zuckerman basically agrees, noting that neither Williams or Cavalli are both just basically playing catch right now, let alone building up strength, let alone doing rehab starts.
Q: Which of the minor leaguers we received at the trade deadline are likely to be called up for a cup of coffee? At least 2 (Tena and Chaparro) appear to be MLB ready.
A: The easy answer is Tena, who’s on the 40-man. The moment we have an infield injury he’s on the bus to DC. Fun fact: we’re in mid-August and Nunez has 15 total at-bats! Wow. Chapparo seems like a 2025 NRI to compete for the Meneses job: 1B/DH mostly. He projects to be a stumpy slugger with little defensive value, not exactly something the team values, and I can’t see him getting added to the 40-man to get called up over Meneses and Garrett. Zuckerman says Tena, and maybe sooner than later since Lipscomb continues to struggle playing every day.
Q: (Paraphrased) Kiebert Ruiz had a few decent moments but generally is struggling and batting cleanup, and is signed long term. How do you see this playing out?
A: I’m going to chalk it up to just a bad season. His career MLB numbers prior to this were just fine and justified the long term contrac.t The OP asks about why he’s batting cleanup … turns out his splits at cleanup are a lot better than at 6-hole where he batted most of the year. His OPS of .710 batting clean-up would give him an OPS+ figure above 100. I’m not worried about Ruiz. Zuckerman is more harsh, calling Ruiz the biggest disappointment of the season, plus he was critical of Ruiz’ defense. Hmm.
Q: Did Matt Cronin do something to get deep in the dog house?
A: Note: Cronin was finally promoted to AA after sitting in High-A for probably two months too long. I questioned the same in my last two monthly check-ins, and have no answer other than to guess that, as a guy who passed through waivers/DFA to get outrighted, the team doesn’t consider him a prospect anymore and he’s now in “org arm” territory, which means he gets moved around the system as needed to eat up reliever innings until that point where he hits 6year MLFA or gets cut. Zuckerman noted he did have back surgery last year and perhaps the team wanted to ease him back, but otherwise has no idea why he’s been stuck in A ball for so long.
Q: Why is it taking so long to get Williams back on the mound in games?
A: Because he had a serious injury. A Flexor issue is a 2-3 month injury at best case, and worst case leads to TJ surgery. He went on the DL June 4th. We’re now August 7th, so that’s 2 months and he’s reportedly not yet doing mound work. Per the injury update, the team is hoping to have him “throw a few innings” in September. Zuckerman says the same.
Q: What is wrong with CJ’s batting? He seems to be swinging at bad pitches.
A: Everything in Abram’s aggregate stats in 2024 is an improvement over last year. Line Drive % up, hard contact % up, Ground ball and weaker contact down. He is in the 10th percentile of all MLB hitters in Chase rate … but his swing/take numbers are drastically improved over the past two years. I’ll take a couple of chase pitches for a guy who has really improved on balls over the plate. Zuckerman notes he’s in a slump right now and this is what he does when he slumps.
Q: Your early thoughts who Rizzo may target FAs in the off-season (or make any surprising trades like Gonzalez or Eaton) for DH/1B/SP/backup C for 2025? Who would YOU like to see as a veteran (ala Werth) signing to lead the young players?
A: I’m beginning to think that Rizzo may give it another year to allow the younger players to matriculate up before making a massive deal. I don’t think this is a 2011 heading into 2012 deal, where he thinks a major signing will be the catalyst to go to a 90-win team. I also think the team is pretty well set at a lot of the positions.
OF is set with Wood-Young-Crews once Crews shows up
3B/SS/2B will be set with top prospects House-Abrams-Garcia.
C is set with long-term signee Ruiz. Why bother signing a backup veteran C if you have healthy Adams and Millas?
So the only thing i could see on the FA market would be yet another 1B/DH veteran type like Gallo to try to catch lightning in a bottle.
Starters: Gore, Parker, Herz, Irvin all young and healthy right now. You expect Cavalli back for 2025. Williams is a FA and might take a deal to return. We don’t have a ton of depth past that, so maybe another FA starter … but who does that starter replace? Herz? You’re not getting a starter to replace Gore or Cavalli, and Parker/Irvin have earned their spots. So, there doesn’t seem to be a huge need for a starter.
Relievers; definitely need some FA help. As of this writing, I’d dump half my relievers. So, look for a ton of 1yr and MLFA deals in the off-season.
Zuckerman says, power hitting 1B, maybe a SP, and relievers.
Q: The “500 Clubs” questions. 1) Do you think the next 500 foot home run will be by one of the famous sluggers or someone people don’t expect to hit one that long?; 2) Which players have the best chance of reaching 500 career home runs based on current totals, age, injury history and other reasons?
A: The next 500-foot homer will be from one of the known sluggers (Ohtani, Stanton, Judge), because they’re the ones who are playing regularly and getting frequent looks. The longest so far this year is 480 from someone unexpected, but last year 493 from Ohtani and the last 500 footer was in 2022 in (surprise) Colorado from CJ Cron.
Best chances to get to 500 homers? Taking a quick peek at active HR leaders …
I think Stanton can get another 80 despite injury issues
Trout should be a shoe-in sitting at 378 with probably another 7-8 seasons to go.
Harper and Machado are both 31 and sitting at 330; both are signed long term for the same team and should be able to average 20 a year for 8 years to get there.
Judge sitting at 298 at age 32 is an interesting question mark: he’s so prolific but so injury prone.
Alonso and Ohtani are both 29 and sitting in the 205-215 range; that’s a ways to go but doable.
Soto is only 25 and already has 188. He could hit 200 before the end of the season. The better question for Soto might be can he hit 600, or 650.
Zuckerman wasn’t aware of stat cast tracking, but listed the same guys I did.
Q: Do you have any insight or theories as to why the return for Flora was so light (a minor league free agent) relative to other mid reliever trades?
A: Probably reputation, role, and contract status. Honestly, in hindsight the return for Hunter was amazing. What a fleece job (Cayden Wallace and a supp-1st draft pick). Zuckerman says it’s because Floro was a 2month rental and a FA at the end of 2024, so there was limits as to what you’d get.
Q: Why has the radio feed been eliminated in the concourse?
A: No idea. There’s no good reason to turn that off. Zuckerman has no idea either
Q: Who’s next to be brought up, Millas, Ribalta etc.? Got a guesstimate?
A: I’m sure we’ll see random call-ups for double headers and other minor injuries between now and 9/1. Willingham and Millas seem to be the two most likely. Zuckerman says he hopes its Crews.
(From here down Zuckerman called it a day, so no alternate answers)
Q: Do you think Joey Gallo will return to nats line up after he gets off IR?
A: Yes I do think he’ll return and will be given a chance to showcase himself for the off-season. Seems like veteran privilege. I don’t think he’ll hit though and may get DFA’d so the team can continue to start prospects to audition for 2025.
Q: What is Jake Noll up to these days?
Hit MLFA in November 2023 and never signed another affiliated deal. He wasn’t in winterball and he’s not with any indy or foreign league in 2024. I can’t find any hint as to what he’s done since: nothing on his twitter or wikipedia page. So, who knows?
Q: Who is one player you wish that has gotten more opportunity with Nats but it was not meant to be?
A: I wonder why we couldn’t get the performance out of Fedde that he found in Korea.
Q: Outfield of the future for Nats? Young needs to hit for more power to be part of it or? Do you still be believe in Hassel?
A: I believe its Wood-Young-Crews for the time being until Hassell or Lile makes a case. But, neither are really making that case right now.
Q: Do you think Abrams is good enough as SS or better as 2B?
A: Defensively? He’s not half bad: for 2024 he’s at 1.1 UZR/150 and a 4 DRS for the season. I’ll take that for a SS generating his offense, as would nearly every other team in the league. There’s no reason to move him to 2B unless we found a SS who was just significantly better and provided passable offense. our SS depth right now doesn’t really show that coming: Tena/Cluff in AAA, Made in AA, Pena in High-A (who will lose that job as soon as King is ready to go), Cruz in low-A? Maybe Dickerson next spring in FCL? Nobody is close.
Q: How much of the offensive struggles can and should be placed on the hitting coach and manager?
A: Some, I suppose? But if a hitter just isn’t talented, what can a hitting coach do? You can only get results up to a point. We’ve seen our pitchers drastically improve and are attributing it to Sean Doolittle, perhaps we should expect more from our hitting coach.
Q: If the Nats win the draft lottery in 2023, do they draft Paul Skenes instead of Dylan Crews, and would Lane Thomas still be a Nat?
A: 100% we would have picked Skenes. Thomas still would have been traded b/c he fetched value and we still have other OFs in the system.
Phew. that was fun. Disagree with my or Zuckerman’s answers?
CJ Abrams is a first time all star in 2024, hopefully the first of many. Photo via dcsportskings.com
This is a running post with all star notes for the team, updated for 2024.
Nats All Star Game Trivia:
All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, both with 6 appearances with the Nats. (these numbers are only appearances with us, not including other franchises)
All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 11; Harper 5 times, Scherzer 3 times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman.
Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011, and now in 2022 and again in 2023 as we rebuild.
Most unlikely All-Star: Probably Dmitri Young or Cristian Guzman, both being the “someone has to make the all star team” nominations in our 100 loss period in the late 2000s.
Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams, Kyle Finnegan (both 1st time)
Snubs: Trevor Williams (on dl)
Narrative: Abrams was initially our sole representative until Finnegan was added at the last minute as an injury replacement. Williams should have been the named representative, sitting in the top 10 in most pitching categories, but got hurt a few weeks before the ASG and probably won’t return for weeks afterwards. We have a couple other players putting up decent seasons (Winker, Irvin) but none really All Star worthy.
Four Ex-nats appeared in the 2024 ASG, three of them starters (Harper, Turner, Soto). Amazingly Reynaldo Lopez represented Atlanta. Erick Fedde didn’t make the ASG but is considered one of the best trade prospects of the year. Wish we could have gotten these two guys to pitch like this for us.
Narrative. The Nats were bad this year, and were one of those teams that had to dig deep to find a sole representative. Grey was our opening day starter and was our best starter for the bulk of the year. We had some other players who ended up having decent seasons (Candelario, Thomas, Harvey) but they would have too much competition in their respective positions to earn a spot.
Nationals All-Star Representative: Juan Soto (2nd)
Snubs: Josh Bell
Narrative. Soto gets his 2nd ASG appearance, probably more on reputation than performance for 2022. He’s only hitting .243 as of the naming, but is getting on base at nearly a .400 clip thanks to his league-leading walk figure. Meanwhile, the best hitter on the team by far is Bell, who is snubbed from making his own 2nd ASG appearance likely a couple of weeks before he’s traded to a contender. Well, when you’re a last place team, you’re only getting one guy on the roster. Soto also gets into the Home Run Derby, which he wins. However, the story of the week was the leaking of contract talks breaking down, with Soto turning down a $440M deal and the team announcing they’re entertaining trade talks.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Scherzer* (substitute addition)
Possible Snubs: none
Narrative: The Nats scuffle into the all-star week on fumes thanks to losing 7 of 9 against NL West teams and suffering perhaps one too many injuries. Scherzer was not initially named, which I immediately listed as a huge snub. But then not only was he added as a replacement player … he was then named the damn starter. How is that possible? Anyway, among our other named players Schwarber’s injury prevents him from playing, but Soto gets into the Home Run derby, where he upsets #1 seed Shohei Ohtani before losing in the next round.
2020
Nationals All-Star representatives: (No Game)
Who would have made it: Juan Soto
Narrative: Covid-19 forced the cancellation of the ASG and the shortening of the season from 162 to 60 games. Nonetheless, the season that Juan Soto put up should have been recognized, even un-officially. He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games for an astounding 221 OPS+ figure, the 33rd best ever season posted by this figure. But, since Soto got hit with Covid and had to miss the first two weeks … he did not qualify for batting titles and was left out of the ASG and MVP conversations.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for years. Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014. 7th. In the entire league. And this is his first ASG. Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year. Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has). Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production. Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good. Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having. Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped. Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.
Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland. Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game. Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475). However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency. There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season. He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did). Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too). None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L. Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle. Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break. Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season. Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
Narrative: For the second year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game. We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start. Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did). Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in). Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance. There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips). Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence? Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating. Is he afraid to lose? On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed. On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats. August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes. I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred. For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly. Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things. He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year. At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.” As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings. Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again. I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard. The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received. This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+). I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year. That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event. In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played. Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim. Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season. But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.
As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address. This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.
Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG. For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippardwas named on 7/13/14).
Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot. I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above). Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting. LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game). Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers. But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed. Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection. The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year. Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter. He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot. Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby. Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season. Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star. It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks. Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura. Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons. Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it). Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, BryceHarper
Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected. Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season. The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012. Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league. Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen. Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.
Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice. He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances. Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league. Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).
Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates. The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season. But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball. I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected. But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season. His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season. Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.
Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection. Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board. Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery. Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense. Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.
Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year. Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate. Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two. Not a good team.
Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor. Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot. Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005. Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since. The team was poor and getting worse. Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).
Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point. Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives? Perhaps. But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).
James Wood continues a big youth push in 2024. Photo Nationals ST 2024
I’m not the first one to notice this, but the Nats management has basically gotten fed up with the lack of productivity of its veterans and 1yr/FA/trade bait players, and has made a slew of moves that have turned this team into what has to be the youngest in the majors right now. Gone/demoted are Robles, Senzel, Rosario, and Meneses. In are Yepez, Lipscomb, Young, and Wood, and they seem like they’re here to stay. Next up is probably Gallo and his .174 BA and probably Corbin once we get a healthy guy off the DL, and god knows why Nunez is still here (he’s got ONE HIT all year). Winker and Thomas produce, but they’re more valuable for who they can bring back in trade versus what they give a sub .500 team in 2024. but i digress.
Here’s our current optimal lineup, with age as of this writing and salary (thanks to the Big Board and Cots for the figures). I’m assuming that a lot of these guys are at the MLB minimum, which is $740k for this year
C: Ruiz, 25, $6.3M
1B: Yepez, 26, $740k
2B: Garcia, 24, 1.9M
SS: Abrams, 23, 752k
3B: Lipscomb, 24, 740k
LF: Wood, 21, 740k
CF: Young, 24, 740k
RF: Thomas, 28, $5.4M
DH: Winker, 30, $2M
That’s an average of exactly 25yrs for the lineup. Four guys at or near the league minimum, total payroll for these nine is just $19.3M, or an average of $2.1 each. Thomas’ salary will eventually be replaced by Crews’ MLB min salary, and maybe an eventual addition of House makes it lower too.
How about the rotation? Here’s our current rotation
Corbin, 34, $35M
Gore, 25, $749k
Parker, 24, $740k
Irvin, 27, $745k
Herz, 23, $740k
From an optimal 2024 stand point, we’re replacing Corbin and Herz with:
Williams, 32, $7M
Gray, 26, $757k
At least until Williams is traded, by which point cross fingers you replace his $7M with:
Cavalli, 25, $740k.
Imagine having your entire rotation be at MLB minimum and an average age of 24. That’d be amazing.
What’s really amazing about it is the financial flexibility it gives the team to buy talent at positions where it makes the most sense, when they need it. Do we think Yepez is the long term solution at 1B? Probably not, not when you can get a big bopper on the FA market for $10M. What if Grey or Cavalli doesn’t come back? We’ll need a starter but can afford to get one. Or, you wait for the likes of Morales (1B) and maybe someone like Pinckney (corner of/DH) to come up and home-grow those guys too.
This team is getting to be fun to watch again. Its “our guys” up there now. A slew of these players were drafted and developed by us (Garcia, Lipscomb, Young, Parker, Irvin, Cavalli). A slew more were prospects we specifically added in trade, setting ourselves up for this exact moment (Ruiz, Abrams, Wood, Gore, and Grey). that’s what the last few years have been about, and more is on the way (Crews, Hassell, Lile maybe, Morales, etc. Susana just got promoted, Sykora looks great so far).
It’s beginning to look good for this team and its future for sure.