CWS coverage for 2018:
Now we’re through the Regionals and the field has been winnowed from 64 to just 16.
We’ll review the 16 regionals in order of the larger bracket. Bold is the host and Bolded Red is the winner. We’ll also highlight significant players and/or guys who are big names in the upcoming draft as we get to them.
It was a crazy set of regionals; by Sunday night only 6 of the 16 brackets were decided; a slew of regionals were forced to monday games (two weather delays involved). And we saw one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. Read on.
Regional Recaps
1. Florida region finish: Florida, FAU, Jacksonville, Columbia. FAU gave #1 overall seed a scare, but ultimately lost in the final. They did put a beat-down on Florida #2 Jackson Kowar, which may have cost him 25 slots in the draft.
16. NC State region finish: Auburn, NC State, Army, Northeastern. #3 seed Northeastern does not do a good job defending critics of their getting an at-large bid. NC State inexplicably loses to Army to open the regional and cannot overcome Auburn to lose on its home turf.
2. Stanford region finish: Cal-State Fullerton, Stanford, Baylor, Wright State. The #2 overall national seed goes out to perennial power Fullerton, losing two close games. Fullerton advances as a #3 regional seed, probably under-seeded when all is said and done, but Baylor really under-performed here.
15. Coastal Carolina region finish: Washington, UConn, Coastal Carolina, LIU-Brooklyn. Host CCU out early; they lost to Washington in the winner’s bracket and then Leesburg’s Zack Hopeck gave them 5 solid innings in the elimination game but the bullpen fell apart against UConn. Pac-12 Washington advances as the #3 regional seed.
3. Oregon State region finish: Oregon State, LSU, Northwestern State, San Diego State; surprise 2-and-out showing from the Mountain West champ. Oregon State absolutely destroyed this regional, outscoring their opponents 35-4 in three games. Look out for this team.
14. Minnesota region finish: Minnesota, UCLA, Gonzaga, Canisius. Minnesota cruised through this regional.
4. Ole Miss region finish: Tennessee Tech, Ole Miss, Missouri State, St. Louis; huge upset here, with tiny Tennessee Tech ousting the #4 national seed Ole Miss, coming back through the loser’s bracket and beating them in a double header to end the weekend.
13. Texas region finish: Texas, Indiana, TAMU, Texas Southern. In the end, a chalk finish though Indiana worked their way through the loser’s bracket to get to the regional final before losing a close one.
5. Arkansas region finish: Arkansas, Dallas Baptist, Southern Miss, Oral Roberts; host Arkansas wasn’t pushed til the final, overcoming regional powerhouse Dallas Baptist to advance.
12. ECU region finish: South Carolina, UNC-W, ECU, Ohio State. Another poor showing from the Big10 as #3 Ohio State falls to CAA team UNC-W in the elimination game. UNC-W is no slouch team, but its still an upset. They made the region final as a #4 seed before falling to the SEC power.
6. UNC region finish: UNC, Houston, Purdue, NC A&T: UNC won a slug-fest over regional powerhouse Houston 19-11 to advance.
11. Stetson region finish: Stetson, Oklahoma State, South Florida, Hartford; Stetson dominated this regional and looks like a tough out.
7. Florida State region finish: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Samford, Florida State. The #7 national seed goes 2-and-out in its own regional. There was some talk about Fla State not being as deserving of a national seed as some of its other ACC brothers … but nobody expected this.
10. Clemson region finish: Vanderbilt, Clemson, St. Johns, Morehead State. Tough regional puts two quality teams together, and the SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt advances.
8. Georgia region finish: Duke, Georgia, Troy, Campbell. Duke came out of the loser’s bracket after a shock opening game loss to win the regional and send the national #8 seed home.
9. Texas Tech region finish: Texas Tech, Louisville Kent State, New Mexico State; this regional goes exactly chalk, with Texas Tech never really troubled (it won its three games by 7,6,5).
Predictions versus Actuals
My Predictions: Florida, Auburn, Stanford, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Minnesota, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, South Carolina, UNC, Stetson, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Texas Tech
Actuals; Florida, Auburn, Cal-State Fullerton, Washington, Oregon State, Minnesota, Tennessee Tech, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, UNC, Stetson, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Duke, Texas Tech
I got just 9 of 16 right.
Summary of Regionals statistically:
- Just 8 of 16 hosts advanced.
- Four of the 8 national seeds fell: #2 Stanford, #4 Ole Miss, #7 Florida State, #8 Georgia
- #10, #12, #15 and #16 also fell: #10 Clemson, #12 ECU, #15 Coastal Carolina and #16 NC State.
- 8 number one seeds, 6 number two seeds, 2 number three seeds, and 0 number four seeds advance to the super regionals.
- 1 number of #4 seeds who didn’t finish 4th in their regional; Northwestern State, Dallas Baptist (a strong #4), Florida Atlantic, UNC-Wilmington, Kent State, Army, Wright State
- 2: number of #4 seeds to get opening wins. Army beat #1 seed NC State in the opener, Wright State (who beat Florida State in the opener)
- Most surprising regional winner: Tennessee Tech, even though they were a #2 regional seed.
- First time Super Regionalists: Tennessee Tech and Stetson.
Conference Breakdowns of the teams in the Super Regionals:
- SEC: Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
- ACC: Duke, UNC
- Big12: Texas Tech, Texas
- Pac12: Oregon State, Washington
- Big 10: Minnesota
- Big West: Cal State Fullerton
- Others: Tennessee Tech, Stetson
6 of the 16 remaining teams from the SEC; no other conference has more than two. Interestingly though, all 6 SEC teams are matched up in the super regionals, guaranteeing 3 of the 8 CWS spots to be from the powerhouse conference.
Super Regional Matchups: the higher ranked team is the host in each case. I’ve organized this as they feed into CWS brackets, not 1-16 seeds. In cases where neither ranked team advanced, the NCAA decides based on suitability of each site. On 6/5/18 they announced the host sites and I’ve denoted them below. Basically they decided to give the two more storied schools hosting duties.
- #1 Florida vs Auburn
- Duke vs #9 Texas Tech
- #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina
- Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas
- #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota
- #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson
- Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt (host)
- Cal State Fullerton (host) vs Washington
Super Regional Thoughts/Predictions
- #1 Florida vs Auburn: Florida took 2 of 3 at home against Auburn in the regular season, beating Casey Mize in the process.
- Duke vs #9 Texas Tech: Duke advanced while other, better ACC teams did not; I don’t know if they can top the powerful Texas Tech team.
- #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina: Arkansas beat South Carolina in the SEC tourney opener; only time they played this year.
- Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas; Texas surprised me by coming out of a regional with an SEC team; you’d think they could overcome the tiny Tennessee Tech team.
- #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota. Oregon State is my odds-on favorite to make the CWS final and Minnesota isn’t stopping them.
- #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: UNC is going to have to work for this one, as they likely get beat by Stetson’s ace Logan Gilbert on Friday.
- Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt: Vandy swept Mississippi State on their turf late in the season, and probably sweep them this coming weekend.
- Cal State Fullerton vs Washington; Fullerton just easily beat a better Pac-12 team in Stanford; do we think the 3rd place Pac-12 team is going to fare better?
Super Regional Star Power
Lots of top-end draft picks will be playing this weekend, just ahead of the MLB draft which starts on 6/12/17. By Super Regional:
- #1 Florida vs Auburn: #1 overall pick Casey Mize, top picks Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India (#5 overall) from Florida. Great pitching match-ups in here.
- Duke vs #9 Texas Tech: Griffin Conine
- #5 Arkansas vs South Carolina
- Tennessee Tech vs #13 Texas
- #3 Oregon State vs #14 Minnesota; Nick Madrigal (#4 overall), plus 1st-day picks Trevor Larnach and Cayden Grenier on a stacked OSU team.
- #6 UNC vs #11 Stetson: Stetson’s ace Logan Gilbert was #14 overall pick.
- Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt
- Cal State Fullerton vs Washington
CWS Predictions: Florida, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Texas, Oregon State, Stetson, Vanderbilt, CS-Fullerton
This would probably favor a Florida-Oregon State final from the initial look of it, though Oregon State’s draw is much, much deeper than Florida’s potential path.
College CWS tournament references: