Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for May, 2025

Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates

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Arnold seems like a lock at this point for the top 5; would the Nats pluck him for 1-1? Photo via FSU sports page

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

  • Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
  • Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
  • LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
  • Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
  • Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

  • Holliday
  • Hernandez
  • Willits

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

  • Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
  • Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
  • Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
  • St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 19th, 2025 at 8:23 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Obligatory post about Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe and the reversal of lifetime bans

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Love this image, one of the more famous shots from the last 75 years of the sport.

Filed away in the general category of, “providing a solution to a problem that didn’t exist before yesterday,” for reasons inexplicable yesterday the MLB commissioner announced that all players who are on the “permanently ineligible” list will exit said list upon death, and thus be eligible for consideration for the Hall of Fame by one of the various selection committees in place.

Since I write a baseball blog, I’ll put in my 2 cents for the record, and it kinda goes like this:

“While I have an opinion, that I’m about to state, this is not really the hill upon which I will choose to die. If you disagree with my take, i’m not gonna argue that you’re wrong and I’m right or vice versa.”

One of the dirty little secrets of every single Hall of Fame argument, whether its about Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson, or about the litany of PED-associated players (Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Clemens, A-Rod, Manny) is this: when you actually visit the Cooperstown museum and walk around it … guess what? ALL of these guys have memorabilia scattered amongst the exhibits, they have their pictures and stories and gear memorializing their play. So, like it or not, these guys are “in” the Hall of Fame already. They just don’t have their bronze bust hanging on the walls of the well-lit corridor at the end of the tour.

Is it amazingly important to withhold the creation of these bronze plaques in order to penalize players for past actions? For many, yes. For whiny, self-important BBWAA sports writers, apparently so. For me? Meh. I’m absolutely not someone who will gaslight you and claim that Jackson didn’t throw the 1919 series by quoting his slash line from the series (because I’ve played the game and absolutely know you can “throw” your ABs in key spots to help lose a game), and I’m not going to make some ridiculous argument that because MLB now partners with Fanduel that Rose’s betting transgressions should be expunged like a Catholic who ate meat on Fridays in the 1960s before the Pope said it was ok.

I’m on record supporting PED-players “for the hall” because … well they’re amongst the best who ever played, and what’s the point of a museum honoring the best who ever played if they’re not actually recognized?? I suppose you can make the same claim for Rose and Jackson, despite what they did. You have to ask yourself: is the purpose of that hall of plaques to be a museum or to be a political statement?

If it was me, I’d select them all and write it in clear text what they did and why they’re controversal. That’ll solve the problem in an instant. Here’s how i’d write Roses’ right now:

“Pete Rose is the all time MLB hits leader [of players who didn’t start their careers in Japan, ahem Ichiro Suzuki], won the ROY and an MVP, and was famous for his tough-nosed playing style, which earned him the nickname “Charlie Hustle.” He also was banned for life when found to have bet on baseball games while managing the Cincinnati Reds and refused to accept responsibility for his involvement for decades, dying while serving a lifetime ban from the sport.”

And then i’d go on with my life, because we spend an awful lot of time arguing about this stuff for what it really is: a dinky museum in upstate NY that’s super hard to get to and which most of us will never see.

Written by Todd Boss

May 14th, 2025 at 12:02 pm

Posted in Baseball in General,Hall of Fame

One Month Temperature check on the Nats top Prospects

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House pushing for a promotion. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.

I published my Nats Prospect Rankings back in March, and the xls is here online. I have not updated it since, though we have had some movement (Crews graduated, Reifert returned, Garcia released). I’ll use my rankings as a guide to review players here. I’ll use a quick “hot or not” grading system for their start to the 2025 season.

Here’s my top 20 and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked above 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25, the day I wrote this. I realize that today 5/6 some of the below has already changed …

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): had a brutal start to the season (getting one hit in his first 7 games) and is clawing his way out. Slash line sits at .212/.241/.356. He is projecting for a 20/20 season believe it or not, but he’s not impressing the ROY voters so far. His big concern right now is that he’s not walking, at all. He has just 3 walks on the year against 31 whiffs. Temperature: cold, but warming up.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): on the low-A DL, recovering from off-season hip surgery. Not considered a major injury, should debut in High-A mid-season. The team initially said he’d be out until at least May. Temperature: TBD.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Cruising in AAA. .292/.356/.500 slash line for the month. This is drastically improved over last year’s AAA line of .250/.280/.375. Another month of this and the current Nats 3B solution of Rosario/Tena may be replaced. Temperature: hot.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. You can’t ask for much more from a 21yr old in AA. Temperature: warm.

# 5 Seaver King SS. No easy way to say this: King is struggling in High-a. .233/.300/.356. 27 Ks in 19 games. I was hoping for more from his debut. Temperature: cold

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: .246/.306/.491 in AA, which is up and down a bit from his AA line last year. He’s showing more power, but less patience (just 4 walks this month). Playing mostly 1B now, so the power is nice. Temperature: luke warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. .202/.250/.333. Has been playing mostly 3B but has some 2B starts filled in, a position he may have to grow more accustomed to given House’s performance ahead of him. Maybe its the fact that the Texas League has a bunch of hitter’s parks but Wallace has yet to really produce in the Eastern League. Temperature: cold

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): has now made rehab starts in three levels, and sits in Rochester. As discussed in my April check-in, there’s a ready made spot in the rotation right now for him, when he’s ready to go. It’s hard to gauge where he is based on him blowing away A-ball hitters, so we’ll have to see how he looks in the majors. Temperature: TBD.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s struggling with control so far in his High-A debut. 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Of course, he’s 19 in high-A. So no notes really. Temperature: holding steady.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): .240/.296/.280 in AAA. He has little power and no walks. With a full MLB outfield, Hassell needs to show us something. Temperature: cool.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid pro debut so far: .302/.397/.365 in High-A starting full time. He needs more walks, and needs to hit for more power, but can’t argue with a .300 hitter. Temperature: Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: sitting in XST, yet to debut. Temperature: TBD.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA in his AAA debut. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the team has over-promoted him basically his entire career. He had a .363 ERA in 19 AA starts last year; was that enough to prove he needed to move up? Honestly, I think he needed another month in AA but now he’s learning the AAA ropes on the fly. Temperature: cool.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He is sitting on the 7 day DL in AA, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026. Temperature: cool.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): just finished off a super month in AA slashing .319/.340/.505 and earned a promotion to AAA as of the day of this writing. He’s kept his Ks down, and has a .500 slugging with just two homers in the month, showing a ton of gap power. I’ve been bearish on him forever and may have to change my tune. His promotion was predicated by the release of Stone Garrett, who just never could recover from his broken leg and now makes way for Lile’s spot in the AAA outfield. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: is really struggling in Low-A: .115/.201/.148 for the month. Ouch. He only has 8 Ks in 15 games/61Abs, so that’s not bad. But this is not sustainable. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): As of this writing, has been activated to Low-A to make his first pro start since 2023, after missing all of last year rehabbing TJ. Our forgotten prospect, who was in the 8-10 range after his pro debut but now has drifted down into the deep teens. If he can return to his promise and his scouting report, he could be an important down-ballot prospect for this team. Temperature: tbd

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): can’t ask for much more here: just an 18th rounder who made the team out of spring training and who is now getting MLB starts. His numbers are mediocre in the majors, but his success story is top notch. He’s a massive success story for this team’s player development and amateur scouting department. Temperature: red hot for the development, luke warm for the production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: on the DSL roster for now, may get promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season. Temperature: tbd

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): slashing .233/.333/.349 as a starting corner OF in AAA. For now he’s starting, but may need to improve production.

Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

  • #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) got the opening day start for AAA and been holding his own but has a 1.50 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit.
  • #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has been stellar in the MLB bullpen, after the team finally wised up and moved him to relief.

In AA:

  • # 36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has gotten promoted twice already and is now contributing in the MLB bullpen. His numbers in the majors aren’t stellar, but he’s there.
  • # 41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has already gotten promoted to AAA and should slot into the AAA closer role. He could be someone to replace an underperforming MLB reliever soon.
  • # 47 Phillip Glasser SS is destroying AA pitching right now: .373/.418/.471. Not bad for a $20k bonus senior draft pick.

In High-A:

  • #23 Elijah Green is still not hitting. .176/.265/.324 with 40 (!) strikeouts in 21 games. I’m just not sure what to say here. He should still be in Low-A until he learns how to hit.
  • #26 Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled in his last April start). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. That’s promising and he may be moving up in prospect ranks soon.
  • #27 Armando Cruz is at .192/.222/.250.
  • #51 Brenner Cox is at .167/.231/.217 with 31 Ks in 16 games. Just not cutting it and i’m not sure why he was promoted out of Low-A.

In Low-A:

  • #21 Christhian Vaquero is marginally improving his slash line, showing some power this year. .244/.320/.395.
  • #42 Robert Cranz, the sudden top 30 prospect on BA and Law’s lists, has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. So, good and bad.
  • #43 Randal Diaz, also surprisingly on Law’s top 20 list for the system, is struggling out of the gate. .230/.326/.270.

Written by Todd Boss

May 6th, 2025 at 1:34 pm

Posted in Prospects

Twelve Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

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Could Eli Willits really go top? Photo via USA Baseball

Here’s our sixth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting (Note: since i’m doing these every 2-week posts and linking to mocks as they happen, i’m going to abandon my typical annual “Mock draft collection” post. Or maybe i’ll throw it up right before the draft).

  • ProspectsLive posted its updated 250 Draft Prospects on 4/21/25. Top 5 go Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson, Holliday, LaViolette. All the rest of the top 10 are in our link block, so no surprises. I think they have Carlson too high, but can’t quibble otherwise. Detailed scouting reports on each player are here as well, and i’ve updated the link blocks below with direct links and updated ranks.
  • Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo wrote an interesting piece titled the “8 MLB Draft prospects who could go 1-1,” illustrating just how wide open this is, which of course supports why we’re keeping tabs on so many players. His analysis mirrors the list of players i’m tracking, and anyone not in his top 8 I’m dropping off the check in list.
  • Baseball America did a podcast on 4/25/25 ahead of the release of its second staff mock draft. Last time their staff member chose Hernandez 1-1; this time a BA writer took Willits, saying it came down to Willits or Arquette for him.
  • Two of the guys we’re covering here (Doyle and Anderson) faced off as Tennessee visited LSU on 4/25/25 in a battle of top 10 teams (LSU is ranked #6, Tennessee #7 by d1baseball as of gametime). I’ll discuss more about their outings below. However the game itself was pretty amazing: LSU went into the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 and scored 6 runs to win it, including a 450+ dead-center 3-run walk off homer from their best hitter Jared Jones.
  • MLPPipeline finally released an updated to its top 150 Draft board; it was pretty dated with ranks that were done in December, and we saw some significant movement. I have updated the below ranks for the updated data and wrote separately about the update and the accompanying podcast, which had several very interesting nuggets of info. I’m also going to seriously cull the below list of actively tracked players because of it.
  • ProspectsLive released its Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/30/25. They went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Arquette, Willits. I can’t argue with this from a draft ranks order, but the match with the teams to their proclivities in the draft doesn’t add up; more on that at the bottom.
  • BA posted their updated top 400 on 4/30/25. There’s a slight bit of movement in the top 10 but they still have top 3 as Arnold, Holliday, and Hernandez. I’ve updated the ranks in the player snippets below but eliminated the link since its all in one place now.
  • BleacherReport’s Joel Reuter’s 4/25/25 Mock draft has the Nats going conservative. top 5 in the mock: Arnold, Arquette, Hernandez, Holliday, Houston.
  • Kiley McDaniel posted his scouting reports on the top draft candidates all in one place on 4/24/25. He also posted video snippets of the top players on his twitter feed. I’ll add his commentary to the prep players below.
  • Just as i published this on 5/5/25, MLBPipeline guys published an “Odds to go 1-1” post. Holliday, Hernandez, and Arnold. It’s basically a transcript of their podcast last week that I quoted elsewhere.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. We’ve removed a ton of names that have been in discussion this spring.

  • Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25) His star has dropped since mid 2024, now projecting as a mid-1st rounder.
  • Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)He started very hot for Tennessee but is an end-of-the-1st rounder, 5’11” 2B guy. He also pulled a hamstring and hasn’t played for weeks, torpedoing his 1-1 chances.
  • Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. Indiana stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38). solid offensively but fringy defensively, so moving him down. #6 on ProspectsLive, so still some hope there.
  • Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. UofA stats and box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24); he was top 10 fringe and started hot, but broke his hand in mid March and will miss a chunk of the season, crushing his chances of going higher. Was top 10, now in the 20s.
  • Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & boxes, MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13). He just has not impressed against sub-standard competition like he should have, and is no longer on anyone’s radar for the top of the draft. #8 on Prospectslive. Dropped all the way to #17 by MLB; was in their top 5 to start season.
  • Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), ProspectsLive (#10). He’s a seriously good prospect of course, but there’s 3 prep guys clearly ahead of him, so dropping him out of analysis.
  • Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+). Despite a massive jump on MLB’s list (from #75 to #10), I don’t see him as a realistic candidate for 1-1 anymore. If the team wants a college LHP starter … they’re taking Arnold.
  • Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+). Jumped from #44 to #9 on MLB’s latest draft, but despite excellent showing in 2025 he’s #3 out of #3 college LHP starters, and the Nats aren’t going to pass on Arnold or Doyle for him, so i’m going to stop hyper-tracking.
  • Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. WFU Stats & box scores, MLB (#12), BA (#7), PL (#10+). Jumped up a bit in the latest MLB ranks, but if the Nats are going to take a college SS … they’re taking Arquette at this point.
  • Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3). Despite increasing his profile all year (in part due to the fact that he plays on the same HS team as Hernandez), Carlson is like the 3rd best prep SS out of three, and for similar logic to Doyle/Anderson … if the Nats want a prep SS with a slick glove, they’ll be picking Willits.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette‘s TAMU team had two tough series, at #1 Texas and hosting #2 LSU. He got just one hit in each weekend series. His slash line took a dive as a result and has gone down to .276/.437/.593 (two weeks ago it was .307/.468/.693). He’s running out of time to impress the decision makers, and more and more is looking like a down-ballot draftee.
  • Arnold had two great starts over the past two weeks against top competition. He went into #17 Louisville and went 7 2/3 11/1 K/BB, gave up 2 runs. Then with FSU hosting Clemson last weekend in a battle of top 5 teams, he limited Clemson to 1 run in 6 ip despite being rather wild on the night (3 walks and 3 HBP). No word on whether Nats brass was at this start, but it would have made sense to get another look against decent competition. He continues to keep himself in the 1-1 discussion.
  • Arquette got “the visit” from Nats brass for their 11th weekend visit. Here’s the problem with Arquette succinctly stated: if you want a big power hitting SS who won’t stay on the position and has to move to 3B, then Holliday is a younger, better, more upside version. So, to me that always means Arquette is going to be “behind” Holliday if this is the stature of player the Nats are looking at. In the meantime, his slash line has cooled a bit in the last two weeks, down to .351/.472/.701 from .383/.497/.780 as OSU visited Oregon two weekends ago in a battle of two top 10 teams.
  • Doyle was absolutely amazing in a high-profile showdown at LSU on 4/25/25, going 6 2/3rds and giving up just one hit to #6 LSU in their bandbox of a stadium. 6/3 K/BB so not nearly as many Ks as normal, but he made himself some money today. Is there a world where Doyle is picked above Arnold? Maybe, but it is fading fast. Last weekend weather issues caused him to pitch twice in two innings against Arnold, something scouts and MLB execs probably cringed at.
  • Anderson looked nearly as good as his counterpart Doyle on 4/25/25: 7ip, 2runs, 11Ks. Both guys took no decisions. But, as per above, neither Doyle and Anderson are getting picked over Arnold at this point, so we’ll focus on the top guys from here on out.

Prep kids: I’ll paraphrase McDaniel’s scouting report for the prep kids, in lieu of any actual news.

  • Holliday: Word on the street is that Holliday had a hitch in his swing last year that he’s fixed, but that he’ll project as a strikeout happy, 65-grade power hitter as a pro. He’s described as an above average defender with a plus arm, and should be a top-level 3B prospect. McDaniel isn’t sold on him as 1-1.
  • Hernandez; sits mid-upper 90s, hits 100+. Plus-Plus changeup. has worked on his curve and its now above average; slider is his 4th pitch and needs work. The knock on him is that his FB is straight and will become more hittable if he loses velocity. 2nd-round talent as a 3B hitter too.
  • Carlson: turns 19 a few weeks after draft, a negative for many teams. 80-grade arm at short. has a huge swing right now, will need some fixing as a pro, but here you’re drafting for the floor of a solid pro SS with all the defensive tools.
  • Willits: hit over power, plus speed, plus defender, true SS. Solid contact, switch hitter who’s better from the left hand side. All plus tools. Super young, reclassified from 2026 class. Again mentions that many teams really over-value the age at draft.

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are seriously looking at Willits for 1-1. However, they also can dream on Holliday and Hernandez. In a draft where the college guys aren’t blowing your socks off, you roll the dice on upside.

The next four teams picking are the Angels, Seattle, Colorado, and St Louis. Just off the top of my head, i these teams seem to have a drafting history like this:

  • Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm; aka Jamie Arnold.
  • Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats no prep arms. I’ll bet they take either Willits or Holliday if they’re there, but may not be able to pass on Hernandez.
  • Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last 6 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there.
  • St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; i’ll bet they are dreaming on LaViolette.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, LaViolette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 5th, 2025 at 9:16 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Nats Rotation End of April 2025 check-in

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Cavalli doing rehab starts and could be back soon. Photo via Lookout Landing blog

We’re a month into the 2025 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back last year’s monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). I really enjoyed doing this last year, so I thought i’d bring it back. I already did a starter post to talk about the opening day rotations for all five full season teams, so we’ll build on that.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important links for this analysis:

We’ll start with the Majors.

  • Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
  • End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord

Changes since end of last Month: Soroka made one start, had a biceps issue and hit the DL. Instead of bringing up an underperforming AAA starter, the team put Brad Lord into the rotation for the time being. As it turns out, Soroka’s issue is relatively short term (he’s already doing rehab starts and will be back soon), which will send Lord back to the bullpen.

Rotation Observations: Gore leads the league in strikeouts, partly on the back of his opening day gem. Parker has gone from 5th starter competition to “best starter in the rotation” because, of course he has. The big disappointment has been Williams, who has reverted to his 2023 self and sports a 5.70 ERA. His FIP is better, so he’s a little unlucky in his first six starts, but this is not what we wanted when we brought him back. Unfortunately he’s guaranteed two years, so he’ll have a lot of leash. Irvin is chugging along at a 101 ERA+, about what you’d hope for in a 4th starter.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Lord will go back to the bullpen once Soroka is back. Hard to see anything else actionable for a while. Cavalli is doing rehab starts; could they possibly demote Williams to the bullpen? Maybe.

Bullpen comments: Atrocious. 5 of the 8 guys have ERAs north of 7. Only Rutledge and Finnegan are performing. Together, Ferrer, Salazar, Lopez, Sims, and Poche have a combined bWAR of -2.6: that’s hard to do in a month and is a big reason this team is 13-18 instead of 16-15. I’m not sure what else they can do in the short term; there’s exactly 1 healthy 40-man arm in the minors (Brzycky). There are a couple AAA MLFA arms with MLB service time that could be getting the call soon, but they’d have to axe someone off the 40-man first.

AAA Rochester

  • Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
  • End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)

Changes since end of last month: Ogasawara hit the DL, replaced by the promoted Shuman. Choi was awful and got demoted; his starts have been filled in with a combination of Pilkington spot starts and an up-and-back start from Luckham (who pitched 5 shutout innings and then got demoted, weird).

Rotation Observations: Alvarez has been holding his own but has a 1.5 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit. Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA; not good. Solesky has been mediocre, but at least not as bad as his prior 2023 AAA stint. Shuman’s first two starts have looked great; it’d be a nice story for the oft-injured 27yr old to finally have a solid season. Cavalli’s first rehab start was shaky. Pilkington’s numbers are intriguing: in 13ip he has 23ks .. and 10walks. Tyler Stuart, sitting on the 7 day DL, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026.

Next guy to get Promoted: Obviously its Cavalli. But after that, it’s hard to make a case for any of these AAA starters to be deserving of a 40-man move and/or to be moved up. Lara’s the only other 40-man member but he clearly needs time.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Probably Solesky. He’s a MLFA so there’s little investment and the team may look at him as an innings eater to be moved around as needed instead of a prospect. Or not: they did send him to the AFL last year.

Bullpen comments: Weigel is making a name for himself in AAA and could be pushing for a promotion. If Pilkington’s walks weren’t so out of control he may already be in the majors. The team already has two promotions from AAA: Schoff (who’s pitching well) and Grissom, who just got the call yesterday.

AA Harrisburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
  • End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)

Changes since end of last month: Choi demoted/Shuman promoted, Luckham up and back, and Atencio to the DL. Atencio’s starts have been a combination of rehab starts from Soroka and Cavalli plus a couple of bullpen games with Miguel Gomez as the opener.

Rotation Observations: Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. Remember; he’s only 21. Luckham’s numbers have looked solid and i’m slightly surprised he didn’t stick in AAA. Choi is probably now in the right level; his ERA is inflated but his peripherals look solid (0.94 whip, .227 BAA, 12/1 K/BB): I’d like to see him over the course of a few months to see if he can earn a AAA spot. Saenz has been hit hard, continuing last year’s AA trend. Shuman cruised through three starts without walking a guy before moved up.

Next guy to get Promoted: Luckham. After that, we’d need another couple of months of performance out of Susana or Choi.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz. His time is running out.

Bullpen comments: Grissom deservedly promoted yesterday. Davila may be next; he’s a MLFA and is 28, too old for AA.

High-A Wilmington

  • Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
  • End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias

Changes since end of last month: Tepper got hurt after 2 starts and went straight to the 60-day DL: can’t find injury news on google, but straight to 60-day usually means something bad. He has been replaced by LR/SS Arias for now, but perhaps not for long b/c Tolman was just promoted.

Rotation Observations: Tepper’s numbers were not good; was he trying to pitch through an injury? Arias’ have been little better and he’ll be the first one replaced. Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled last night). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. Love it. Bravo to Cornelio, who is having a stellar start to the season after my constantly harping on why he’s even still in the system after two full seasons of ineptitude. He’s got 31 Ks in 21 innings so far. Our star prospect Clemmey can’t find the plate: he’s got 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Sthele is marginally improving on his numbers from last year but isn’t lighting the world on fire.

Next guy to get Promoted: Probably Cornelio; he’s 25, a bit old for the level, and if he continues to dominate would need a new challenge. Kent and Clemmey are at least a half season in High-A irrespective of performance.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Arias, as per above.

Bullpen comments; Schulz has looked great in the closer role and could be pushing for a move up. Oddly the two guys they’ve already promoted (Young and Huff) had middling High-A stats. Jared Simpson has looked solid. It’s great to see Glavine off the DL after missing most of the last two seasons. On the other end of the spectrum, Marc Davis has gone from a rotation candidate to not being able to find the plate: he has 15 walks in 9 innings.

Low-A/Fredericksburg

  • Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
  • End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut

Changes since end of last month: None, really. Cavalli made a rehab start but then Roman (who was supposed to start that day) came in right afterwards. Tolman made a spot start somewhere along the way. Otherwise, this rotation has been pretty consistent. Bennett slots into Tejeda’s spot today, but that’s probably not a replacement (as per my observations below).

Rotation Observations: First off, none of these starters are going very deep. Polanco has just 18.2 innings in 5 starts. Tejeda has 16 ip in 4 starts. But they’re still the starters. Polanco and Tejeda both have solid looking numbers: sub 4 ERAs, decent whips, solid BAAs. Both Meckley and Garcia have struggled with control and are walking nearly a guy an inning. Roman is the low man on the totem pole right now: 12.37 ERA and a 2.2 whip.

Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco is the oldest of these starters but doesn’t have the swing and miss stuff you’d want to see to show he’s overpowering the league. Bennett, if he shows out healthy, probably is moved up pretty quickly. He needs to get to AA by season’s end honestly.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman isn’t cutting it and likely Bennett is taking his spot.

Bullpen comments: There’s several bullpen arms in Fburg who are overpowering the competition: Bloebaum, Amaral, and converted infielder Mejia all have huge K/9 rates right now. Cranz has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. Mejia is pitching well enough to get save opportunities, a good sign for his conversion.

That’s it for April 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.

Written by Todd Boss

May 1st, 2025 at 10:35 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews