Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2025 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.
First off, some resources for you.
- Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
- Local teams in the rankings: it’s a really down year for area college: there’s not one Virginia team anywhere near the top 25 this year. In fact, there’s not a single VOTE for a DC/MD/VA college team in the final USA Today poll.
- WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
- Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
- Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com
Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:
- Vanderbilt (42-16): RPI #1, SoS #2
- Texas (42-12): RPI #4, SoS #19
- Arkansas (43-13): RPI #5, SoS #14
- Auburn (38-18): RPI #3, SoS #1
- North Carolina (42-12): #6 RPI, #23 SoS
- LSU (43-14): #10 RPI, #36 SoS
- Georgia (42-15): #2 RPI, #4 SoS
- Oregon State (41-12-1): #7 RPI, #42 SoS
There’s definitely some interesting stuff to digest here. Vanderbilt finished 4th in the SEC regular season but won the post-season title, which vaulted them above Texas for #1. They’ve been RPI #1 for a bit, so no surprise here. Texas won the SEC regular season title by two games over Arkansas, who gets the #3 national seed. UNC finished 3rd in the ACC regular season but won the ACC title, likely cementing their slot as a top 8 seed. Interestingly Georgia Tech was the ACC regular season winner but didn’t even get a hosting spot. LSU sneaks into a regional spot at the expense of #8 RPI Coastal Carolina, likely a nod to the amazing atmosphere at LSU’s home stadium. Lastly the orphaned Oregon State team more than earned its #7 seed with its barnstorming season. There’s no easy outs amongst the top 8 seeds.
The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:
- #9 Florida State (38-14) : #14 RPI, #24 SoS
- #10 Ole Miss (40-19): #12 RPI, #5 SoS
- #11 Clemson (44-16): #9 RPI, #16 SoS
- #12 Oregon (42-14): #16 RPI, #35 SoS
- #13 Coastal Carolina (48-11): #8 RPI, #66 SoS
- #14 Tennessee (43-16): #11 RPI, #12 SoS
- #15 UCLA (42-16): #15 RPI, #22 SoS
- #16 Southern Miss (44-14): #19 RPI, #67 SoS
Unlike 2024, there’s no real hosting shocks here. Oregon remains a host despite losing early in the Big 10 conference tournament. Ole Miss made a huge run to the SEC tourney final and will be a tough out. Alabama ends up being the highest RPI team to not host (#13), likely due to an early exit in the SEC tournament and a 16-14 league record.
Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:
None. Last year there were three Virginia teams in the field of 64, including UVA as a national seed. This year, not so much. West Virginia is in, along with nearby Carolina schools like ECU and Coastal Carolina that sometimes recruit in the state. This year, nothing.
Quick Regional Thoughts
Here’s one sentence or so on each regional
- Vanderbilt (42-16): The #1 seeds get a super easy regional with their #2 as RPI #32 Louisville. No upsets here, but Louisville has a big-time arm that could throw a monkey wrench into the plans.
- Texas (42-12) gets a really easy regional, with three mid-majors and no real threats.
- Arkansas (43-13) gets the Big East champ Creighton as a #3 seed, a bit troubling, but may not even see them. Their #2 seed is Kansas, not exactly a baseball powerhouse this year.
- Auburn (38-18): gets NC state as their 2nd seed, and gets Stetson, who got into the tournament in controversial fashion when their conference tournament got rained out.
- North Carolina (42-12) was not done any favors by the committee, getting #2 Oklahoma and the big10 tourney champs Nebraska as a #3. Ouch.
- LSU (43-14) will have Dallas Baptist to contend with (#20 RPI), but otherwise has an easy draw.
- Georgia (42-15) gets two storied programs in Duke and Oklahoma State, but both programs struggled this year against Quadrant-1 schools.
- Oregon State (41-12-1) has a pretty manageable regional that includes TCU and USC in down years.
- Florida State (38-14) gets the team with the best record in the land in Northeastern (48-9 with a 25-2 in-confernece record), but they have almost no Q1 experience.
- Ole Miss (40-19) comes in red-hot, having made the SEC tourney final. For their troubles they get ACC regular season champ Georgia Tech, but being hosts will make the difference here.
- Clemson (44-16) struggled at season’s end and has a tricky regional that includes West Virginia and the controversial Kentucky, who squeaked into this draw as the last of 13 SEC teams in the tourney.
- Oregon (42-14): Upset watch here: Oregon has two tough teams in Arizona and Cal Poly to contend with.
- Coastal Carolina (48-11): They’ll have to prove their lofty RPI here; they have to deal with Florida. Florida is certainly battle tested: 28 of their 58 games were against Q1 schools.
- Tennessee (43-16): probably saves their Ace for Wake Forest in game two and should cruise in a relatively easy regional.
- UCLA (42-16): gets three other West Coast teams, any of whom seem to be possible to win here. UC Irvine, Arizona State, and Fresno State all have major college baseball pedigree, and California college baseball is just different.
- Southern Miss (44-14); the mid-major has to contend with both Alabama, who arguably should have had a host, AND Miami. Ouch.
Prospect Watch. We’ve talked the top guys to death, but here’s where they’re playing. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:
D1baseball.com’s Prospect Watch post is here as well.
CBS sports RJ Anderson had top 10 prospects to watch post as well.
- Vanderbilt Regional: Vandy could have to contend with Supp-1st projected Alabama ace Patrick Forbes in game 2 of their regional.
- Texas Regional: Texas’ speedy OF Max Belyeu is a late 1st round projection.
- Arkansas Regional: their transfer SS Wehiwa Aloy projects as back of 1st round now, and they have a big left in Zach Root who’s a supp-1st rounder projection.
- Auburn Regional: their big hitter is Ike Irish a C/OF type.
- North Carolina Regional: UNC’s catcher Luke Stevenson projects as a late 1st rounder. Oklahoma’s ace Kyson Witherspoon could face UNC in game 2.
- LSU Regional: left ace Kade Anderson will lead the way for LSU.
- Georgia Regional: Georgia is really a team effort; they only have one top 200 projected draft player in OF/1B Tre Phelps
- Oregon State Regional: top-5 projected pick Aiva Arquette stars for OSU.
- Florida State Regional: FSU’s ace Jamie Arnold likely goes game 2.
- Ole Miss Regional: Ole Miss’ big arm is Mason Morris, a likely 3rd rounder.
- Clemson Regional: their leading hitter Cam Cannarella was on upper 1st round watch early, but has faded.
- Oregon Regional: Arizona’s leading hitter Brendan Summerhill leads their attack.
- Coastal Carolina Regional: Their leading prospect is C Caden Bodine, who has seen his star really fade this season.
- Tennessee Regional: top-5 projected Liam Doyle will have scouts out for sure. Tennessee also has mid-1st rounder Gavin Kilen and supp-1st round Andrew Fischer in the lineup. Wake’s Marek Houston has top-5 buzz and would be a great matchup when Doyle pitches. Wake also has late 1st rounder Ethan Conrad in the OF.
- UCLA Regional: there’s a slew of 3rd and 4th rounders amongst all the teams here, typical for a California-heavy regional.
- Southern Miss Regional: Southern Miss is led by ace RHP JB Middleton, a late 1st round projection. He could face off in game 2 against Alabama’s Riley Quick, a Fastball/Slider guy who also projects in the same range.
Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:
- TAMU and Jace LaViolette, projected 1-1 to begin the year, now a mid-1st rounder.
- UC Santa Barbara and Tyler Bremner: how his stock has fallen this year.
- Indiana and Devin Taylor got a couple of shout outs, but he’s pushed back to end of 1st round.
We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.
Appreciate the preview. Lots of potential outcomes. As for the draft, rough year for Laviolette. On top of his fall from potential 1-1 early in the season and A&M missing out on the NCAAT after starting the season the overall #1 team, Laviolette broke his hand in the SEC Tourney. Just a rough all around season for him.
Pilchard
28 May 25 at 3:05 pm
Ugh, i didn’t even know he broke his hand. Missed that news item. That’ll cost him at least a round. Remember last year Braden Montgomery? Yeah, Nats passed on him after he had a brutal looking injury to pick King… yeah he’s blowing through A ball right now, with a .900 OPS. https://www.milb.com/player/braden-montgomery-695731
Todd Boss
28 May 25 at 3:15 pm
Todd, why don’t you post your last comment from the last post as a separate post? There’s a lot to be unpacked from the Rosenthal piece, and taking the temperature of the “rebuild” in general.
The NCAA tournament appears to be wide, wide open this year. There aren’t dominant teams, so expect some upsets.
How much does the tournament affect draft stock? It depends. Hagen Smith had a bad tourney outing last year but stayed in the top five picks. Jake Irvin had a bad tourney outing a few years ago and dropped from the (projected) second round to the fourth, costing him a lot of money. On the flip side, Christian Moore climbed from the (projected) late first round last year to pick #8 after a fantastic tournament.
Arnold and Doyle each have not been good in their last two outings, so both might be teetering for a little drop if they don’t show better. I don’t know that Arnold would drop out of the top five, as he’s been a solid projection there for the whole cycle, but Doyle might.
Arquette has a lot to gain the tourney as many have questioned the quality of Oregon State’s opponents this year without the PAC-12. Gavin Kilen could hit himself into (or out of) the top 10. I don’t see Marek Houston moving too much from the 5-10 range unless he goes full Christian Moore.
KW
28 May 25 at 5:01 pm
if there’s a better post to follow the action someone is going to have to show me where.
thx Todd!!
FredMD
29 May 25 at 9:03 am
@FredMD thanks!
@KW: i could definitely do a one-off on the Rosenthal article. But … outside of a couple of interesting observations … it’d probably just be piling on right? We aren’t privy to Rizzo’s conversations about payroll with ownership, so we probably have no idea what limitations he’s operating under. I mean, what if Lerner basically said to Rizzo on November 1st lastyear: “you get $20M and that’s it, we’re not ready to spend.” Well what are you gonna do?
Todd Boss
29 May 25 at 9:48 am
I read Steve’s reaction to the Rosenthal piece at NatsTalk. He seemed to think it was somewhat of a hit job and correctly pointed out some of the errors. I wasn’t that taken aback by the article, though, and I don’t think that most who have responded here are either. It’s hard to argue with numbers like the Nats being neck and neck with the Pirates for the second-worst record in baseball over the last five years (I believe Rosenthal just recently did a piece on the sad state of the Bucs as well), and the quite irksome point of where the Nats now rank in salary spending. It’s #26 out of 30 this year and likely would have been around this low before now if not for the Stras and Corbin contracts.
They’re not spending. They’ve drafted and developed poorly. A good bit of their current rebuild is built on the return of trading a generational superstar. (For those who think I’m a Rizzo hater, I always give him props for his trade returns. It is fair to question the quality of what he got for Trea and Max, though.)
Oh well. I’m not as interested in rehashing the water under the bridge as I am looking ahead. I don’t think the rebuild is as far along by now as anyone would have hoped, though, Rizzo included.
KW
29 May 25 at 5:22 pm
Don’t think anyone that has mildly paid attention to MLB over the past few years is surprised that the Nats have among the worst records during the last five years, but the next couple of years don’t look as nearly as hopeless as it does for Pittsburgh, Colorado or the White Sox.
Rizzo deserves to take hits for scouting misses (particularly on the international front) and player development setbacks, but it’s pretty clear the Lerners refused to spend any significant money in free agency this past off-season. With a middle order bat, and a couple of solid relievers the Nats would be over .500.
It’s just inexplicable that the Lerners don’t want to spend or sell the team. Please do one or the other.
Pilchard
29 May 25 at 5:37 pm
@KW – My big problem with the article and some of the responses is statements like “It’s hard to argue with numbers like the Nats being neck and neck with the Pirates for the second-worst record in baseball over the last five years.”
I mean, yes. But also why on earth would you establish “the last five years” as the timeframe for analysis? Was that when Rizzo was hired? Is that as far back as the data goes? Was that when the sport underwent some sea change, and therefore earlier years aren’t comparable? Or is that just when the team started losing and therefore the timeframe that shows Rizzo in the worst possible light?
Stuff like that means that the conclusion predates the argument, and it’s hard to take that kind of motivated reasoning seriously.
SMS
29 May 25 at 7:21 pm
Rosenthal used the last five years — since the championship. That’s not my data point, that’s his, but it’s perfectly valid.
Spending-wise, the Nats were “still trying” through mid-2021, when they were still very much in contention, but the lack of spending during the last three years has been embarrassing.
Even a little more spending would pay big dividends. If they had spent just $25M more this year they’d have a competitive bullpen and better hitters than Bell and DeJong. With just that level of investment they’d be at .500, despite the issues in other areas.
But what really sank them starting in 2020 was the failed drafting and development. They were expecting Robles to be an all-star; Kieboom, Fedde, and Antuna to at least be above average; Romero, Adon, Denaburg, and Rutledge to all become MLB starters; and on an on.
As I noted above, though, that’s all water under the bridge now. We’ve got a whole other generation that we’re wondering whether can be developed, or redeveloped. (Green apparently is in FLA right now being completely retooled.)
KW
29 May 25 at 8:22 pm
2020 is a fine place to start; Washington was robbed of its post-World Series title victory lap of 35K fair weather fans a night thanks to Covid, and the 2020 team definitely seemed like it played with a hangover all year. We replaced Rendon’s 7 bWAR 2019 season with Kieboom’s 0.2 win season, most of our hitters took huge steps back, Sanchez turned into a Pumpkin and we lost Strasburg forever. That’s how you go from a playoff team to a last place team fast. Sh*t happens.
But clearly that’s when the money spigot turned off: we could have replaced those guys with FAs but chose not to. We missed out on a slew of 1st rounders who should have helped out but didn’t. And the MASN fighting took away a financial lifeline that should have helped.
We are where we are for a combination of failings, not all of which are Rizzo/Lerner’s fault.
Todd Boss
30 May 25 at 8:54 am
But why not 3 years or 10? And what timeframe would you choose to evaluate the team in the future? Would you always go back to 2020 and start there?
I mean, if you’re just telling the story of the team, then fair enough. Winning the WS is an inflection point, and you can absolutely talk about the “era of bad play” encompassing the failed attempt to keep the window open and then the failed retooling and then rebuild.
But arguments like Rosenthal’s aren’t just historical narratives, they’re implicitly and sometimes even explicitly saying “this is the trendline and this is what should be expected in the future unless changes are made”. And in that context, there’s no justifiable reason to adopt that timeframe. It’s lazy, and it’s intellectually dishonest. And it’s the difference between a clear eyed evaluation of the org’s successes and failures, both earned and luck-driven, and a hatchet job that’s just intended to embarrass Rizzo and possibly provide cover for the failures in Baltimore.
SMS
30 May 25 at 10:42 am
I think there are fair criticisms of Rizzo. And I have deep concerns about the *current* ownership group (I am skeptical that Mark Lerner will ever win a bidding war for a top-tier free agent). At the same time, Rosenthal’s piece just wasn’t very well done and SMS’s point about the arbitrariness of the timelines for Rosenthal’s analysis is a big reason.
If the piece was a criticism of the ownership group, then a natural timeframe to analyze is the era after Ted died (plus the era before Ted died but after the reins were supposedly handed to Mark). But that’s not what the piece was–it was a criticism of Rizzo. The main reason to select 2020 and 2013 as the key starting points for the analysis is that *those dates make Rizzo look bad,* which tells you all you need to know about the piece. Lazy and intellectually dishonest are the correct adjectives to use here.
I have no idea why Rosenthal wrote the piece. If I was the Nats’ owner, I wouldn’t replace Rizzo now. At the same time, Rizzo has made some errors and was slow to modernize the front office. He’s not perfect, and it’s at least possible there’s someone better out there. But does anybody on planet earth believe with any amount of confidence that the current ownership group could (a) identify such a person; and (b) pay that person enough money to take the job? I have no such belief.
I believe I have enough information to conclude that the current “rebuild” isn’t going to bear fruit in terms of multiple playoff appearances over multiple years so long as we have the current ownership group. This team could have been a fringe WC team with $30M spent improving the bullpen and putting someone other than Josh Bell’s corpse in the lineup at DH. At the same time, I can understand the logic of waiting to spend real money until the ’25-6 offseason even if I don’t agree with it. If you believe that logic, then this offseason is a real test: will the Mark-Lerner-led Nats *ever* be willing to pay retail prices for a marquee free agent? I already answer “no” to that question, but recognize there’s a viable alternative viewpoint. I fear we’ll be here at the end of May ’26 complaining about the same things–and those should be complaints about the ownership and not about Rizzo.
Derek
30 May 25 at 11:24 am
@SMS: I don’t think its a specific X years … its about recognizing the cy cles.
for some context, Houston went 10 years without making the playoffs and purposely buried themselves with three straight 105+ loss seasons from 2011-2014. That enabled them to clear out bad contracts, start over with drafts and player dev, and they’ve made the playoffs the last 9 consecutive seasons. So, to me their “cycle” is still going on. They’ve managed to avoid the bottoming out that we did by patchwork of replacing their position players as they left … but as we speak they’re putting out a 100% developed rotation, which is a huge plus. They’re also spending $239M this year versus our $138M, $35m much of which is going to a guy who retired years ago.
I think the Covid year is a good place to start b/c it signified the beginning of the sell-off, which led to prospects coming in, which led to 100-loss season, which is now leading to a ton of top10 draft picks coming to play.
If Rizzo had “hit” on all these 1st and 2dn rounders over the last 10 years, we’d be having a different story; that’s on Rizzo. If Lerner had spent some damn money, we’d be having a different convesation too: this is a much different looking team with an additional $100M of players on the field. That’s Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Nick Castellanos off of the Phillies; poof.
Reminder: here’s our 1st rounders from 2012 (the year after Rendon) until today: Giolito, no 2013 pick, Feddo, no 2015 pick, Kieboom & Dunning, Romero, Denaburg, Rutledge, Cavalli, House, Green, Crews, King & Lomavita
Some of these are glaringly bad misses. Most of them amounted to nothing, and those who did often were for other teams (Giolito, Dunning). That’s just too many 1st round misses.
Our 2nd rounders are even worse: same timeframe: Renda, Johansen, Suarez (didn’t sign), Stevenson & Perkins, Neuse, Crowe, Cate, no 2019 pick, Infante & Henry, Lile, Bennett, Morales, Dickerson
That’s just a trail of nonsense. not one impact player here.
So that’s more than 25 bites at the apple and the absolute best palyer by bWAR out of every one of these players right now is Giolito, who did it all for other teams.
Todd Boss
30 May 25 at 1:20 pm
Miami lead Alabama 3-0 after three batters. Came down to the bottom of the ninth, two men on with Kade Snell flying out on a near walkoff, the Cane’s centerfielder’s back pressed against the fence. 5-3.
Wright State up 3-0 vs Vandy
next up Liam Doyle.
FredMD
30 May 25 at 6:59 pm
Doyle 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K, 3 BB, 104 pitches. Not sure why they burned him against Miami (OH), but a solid outing. Arnold didn’t pitch against Bethune-Cookman, and neither did Anderson against Little Rock. Witherspoon only gave up three hits and no runs in 6 IP against Nebraska, with 9 Ks.
Arquette had a single in four PAs in a troubling loss for OSU against St. Mary’s so already will be in an elimination game today. So will Marek Houston and Wake, although Houston did his part against Cincy with a homer and getting on base three times in five PAs.
KW
31 May 25 at 8:21 am
Arnold went 7 IP, 119 pitches last night for the win against Mississippi State — 5 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 13 K.
Six seeded teams face elimination games this afternoon, including #1 Vandy and #2 Texas.
KW
1 Jun 25 at 8:06 am
@KW: shocked Doyle was “wasted” in the opener. I saw one inning of Arnold while we had guests over and watched him cough up a blasted homer … 119 pitches is … well that’s the upper limit a pro should ever go. Luckily college guys get 6 days of rest instead of four.
Todd Boss
1 Jun 25 at 9:09 am
Tennessee plays WF tonight with the winner going to the Super Regional at Arkansas. Liam Doyle may start of two days rest after throwing 104 pitches on Friday. Crazy with the draft looming: https://x.com/AllVolReport/status/1929355470310981779
Pilchard
2 Jun 25 at 10:44 am