Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for December, 2025

Interesting Trade, Prospect for Prospect, Bennett for Perales

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Fare thee well Jake. Photo from OSU

The Nats new GM reached back out to his old team and made a trade you just don’t see that often; prospect for prospect, two minor leaguers (essentially) for each other, both of whom are at the cusp of MLB production.

Jake Bennett heads to Boston straight up for Luis Perales a 22yr old RHP starter who got a cup of coffee with Boston this year.

From a prospect ranking perspective, MLBpipeline had Bennett as our #11 and now has Perales as our new #5, so in theory our farm system improves marginally. In reality, whether it was Bennett or Perales in our AAA rotation to start 2026, both would be expected to matriculate up this year. Perales is only 22 as an international signee, and has more upside/more risk, while Bennett is considered more floor/more consistent.

Keith Law had some interesting analysis in the immediate wake of the trade, noting that Bennett (and the Nats pitching dev staff) had done little to improve upon his offerings in his time here (either in terms of velocity or adding breaking pitches), whereas Boston has had success in helping its arms improve. Something to think about; Boston must have seen something it thinks it can improve upon with Bennett, while Toboni rolls the dice on a higher upside arm that he’s familiar with.

Here’s what our rough SP depth chart looks like right now on the 40-man:

  • Likely opening day rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Alvarez/Irvin/Parker competition
  • Likely starters->bullpen: McGarry, Lord, Williams
  • To the DL: Herz
  • To AAA: Perales, Lao, Eder, Cornelio

That’s not a bad AAA rotation to start, adding to it Luckham, Shuman, and Ogasawara as 5th candidates

Anyway, odds are we’re not done seeing trades. Big question is whether he will move Gore now or try to leverage desperate teams at the 2026 trade deadline … and if he can convince other teams that Abrams is really a shortstop.

Written by Todd Boss

December 16th, 2025 at 11:15 am

2026 Draft: first look at top Draft Candidates

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UCLA Shortstop Roch Cholowsky is looking like a sure-fire 1-1 candidate. Photo via BA.

So, now that we know we’re picking #11 (which … we may have already known anyway), lets take a quick peek at some of the names being thrown around at the top of the 2026 draft. December 2025 is a very long way from June 2026, but some of these names will remain at the top of the board.

Here’s a first look at the 2026 draft class. I’ll split the players into college and prep, and delineate between players who have consistently been in the early 1-1 talk versus those who have fallen out of the discussions.

Right now the class is looking very hitter heavy, with most of the names thrown around at the top being position players. Cholowsky is getting some separation for 1-1, but probably changes as we get closer to the draft, since it is the Chicago “Cheapskate” White Sox picking 1-1, and they may very well be looking at spreading out the dollars and fighting with his representative about a ten-figure signing bonus.

More likely, we’ll see someone at #11 who was previously in the top-5 mix but who fell for some reason or another, not unlike how we ended up with Anthony Rendon in 2012 or Brady House in 2021. Rendon is an interesting call back: he was also basically the best hitter in the college game as a sophomore (as was Cholowsky last year), then had an injury plagued junior season that dropped him to us; might happen again.

College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

  • Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. BA’s College POTY in 2025 as a Sophomore, clear 1-1 candidate in early 2026 draft considerations. Only 60-grade guy on the board from ProspectsLive. #1 on MLBpipeline’s first list, called consensus 1-1.
  • Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama: .316/.421/.636 line with 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 2025. #3 on MLBP’s first board.
  • Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. #2 on ProspectsLive Sept2025 board, undersized 5’9″ but good EV, lefty, fast. Slight concerns on CF vs Corner. Some disagreement in the industry on rank; some have top 10, others further down.
  • AJ Gracia, OF (corner) UVA via duke: big corner-bopper bat profile, transferring to UVA from Duke with their new coach, starting to get top-5 buzz.

College Candidates who have fallen out of  1-1 contention

  • Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida; leading college Arm of the class. 6’5″ upper 90s. 2x Team USA pitcher. Up to #4 on BA’s list Oct2025, but #13 on MLBpipeline’s list.
  • Derek Curiel, OF, LSU:  .345/.470/.519 as starting Freshman/lead off hitter in 2025, draft-eligible as Sophomore in 2026. Playing CF for LSU in 2026, should stay there as long/lanky 6’2 180 guy. power limited, but great hit tool.
  • Cameron Flukey, RHP Coastal Carolina. D1 3rd team AA 2025 as Soph, Fri starter for CCU CWS team. 2nd best arm in pitching-weak draft class.
  • Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M; 3B in the pros, 6’1″ some defensive questions but big bat.
  • Daniel Cuvet, 3B, Miami. D1-AA 2025 as Soph.
  • Evan Dempsey, 2-way FGCU: D1-AA 2025 as Soph.
  • Lucas Moore, OF, Louisville: D1-2nd team AA 2025 as Soph

High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

High School guys whose stock has fallen:


  • Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord (CA): Stanford commit, 6’3″ free swinger, may move to 3B, solid defender. Up to #3 on BA’s oct2025 board
  • Kevin Roberts, RHP/OF Jackson Prep (FL): same HS as Konnor Griffen, huge guy 6’5″ Florida commit, primarily hitter but can hit 94-95 on mound as well.
  • Rocco Maniscalco SS/2B (Oxford, Ala., HS). Reclassified to 2026, won’t turn 17 until May 2025, super young.
  • Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord, Calif.
  • Brady Harris, a prep OF from Jacksonville committed to Florida who is a power-hitting plus defender

sources:

Written by Todd Boss

December 12th, 2025 at 11:12 am

Posted in Draft