We’re two months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats (not yet started for 2025)
We’ll start with the Majors.
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
- End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
- End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
Changes since end of last Month: Soroka came off D/L, sent Lord back to the bullpen.
Rotation Observations: We have an ace (Gore), we have a #4 starter (Irvin), and we have three guys pitching their way out of the rotation (Parker, Williams, Soroka). Soroka gets a pass b/c he’s guaranteed $8M. Williams gets a pass (for now) because he’s guaranteed even more. Parker Is just looking hittable right now. His best start in the last month was a 5.1 IP 3run effort against Atlanta; otherwise every one of his outings is a bunch of runs year, fail to get out of the 5th, tax the bullpen, etc. Every time Cavalli looks unhittable in AAA, Parker is one step closer to a demotion.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Parker, as per above.
Bullpen comments: The team just cut ties with Lopez ($3M off-season signing) after jettisoning Sims ($3M) and Poche ($1.4M) earlier in the month. All money well spent. I think its safe to say Rizzo’s “throw money at a bunch of FA relievers” strategy for the 2025 bullpen has officially failed. On the bright side Finnegan has looked solid, Henry has been amazing, and five of the eight bullpen arms are home grown. Finally.
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
- End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: Lara hit the D/L, and basically saw his starts picked up by Cavalli and then eventually MLFA signing Sampson. Cavalli ended his rehab stint and was optioned.
Rotation Observations: Alvarez, Shuman, and Sampson all had a full month in the rotation, and were all mediocre to bad. ERAs in the 5-6s, Whips in the 1.5 range. Solesky has improved from last month and has earned himself another month in the AAA rotation. Cavalli’s back; in 4 May starts as he builds up arm strength going about 4IP each, he’s got 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP. Once he’s stretched out someone’s making way in the majors. They now have 3 starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara), all of whom would be preferred to most of this crew.
Next guy to get Promoted: Cavalli as per above.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sampson; he’s a 33yr old MLFA who will either push for a MLB promotion or exercise whatever opt-out is inevitably in his contract.
Bullpen comments: There’s just nobody in the AAA bullpen right now pushing for a promotion; they’ve moved up Rutledge, Henry, and Brzycky at this point and they seem to have exhausted internal options for fixing the MLB bullpen.
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
- End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
- End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
Changes since end of last month: The biggest news of the month is Susana going down with a Grade 1 UCL sprain. Grade 1 is supposed to be mild, with “microscopic tears” or a “slight stretch.” We’ll have to see what happens next. Susana and Soroka’s rehab starts have been replaced with the promoted Cornelio and the MLFA signing Conley (with rubber-armed Gomez doing a slew of spot starts/openers).
Rotation Observations: the AA rotation looks solid. Choi had a great month: 1.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP. Maybe he’s got the confidence to return to AAA. Luckham has been solid but not as dominant in the K/9 range. Cornelio’s rise to AA has been merited and he’s holding his own so far, to my surprise after complaining about him for years. Conley, a 30yr old signed from a Mexican team, hasn’t been bad. The only guy still struggling in Saenz, same as last month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Choi.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz
Bullpen comments: Powell didn’t give up a run last month. Peterson was excellent and got promoted mid-month. Cuevas has really shined since moving to the pen. Davila remains too old for AA and needs to get moved to AAA. Maybe our MLB bullpen solutions are actually a bunch of guys dealing in AA right now.
High-A Wilmington
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
- End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
- End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
Changes since end of last month: Cornelio moved up, and the team have a slew of guys spot starts: 10 different players got a start in May for this team while they waited for Sykora and some stability.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey had a great month; 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks. If he can get his walks down he may be a 19yr old in AA. Stuart’s rehab has gone well; he may force a bump in AAA soon. Kent has been solid, if a little unlucky. Sykora’s High-A debut has been laughably good: 2 starts, 8IP, 15Ks, 2 hits. Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th; uh-oh. Sthele was the worst full-time starter, though some of their SS/LR types (Arias and Caceres) were awful.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. There’s zero use of having a guy with a 16 K/9 rate stay in a-ball for any longer than he needs to. Clemmey after that; i don’t care how young he is.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele
Bullpen comments; Amaral had a nice month. Not much else to report; when most of your best WHIPs belong to starters, it tells you your pen needs work.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
- End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
- End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett, Sykora
Changes since end of last month: Again, none really. A couple of these guys had their starts pushed or did tandem starts to give bigger names a couple of starts, but the Low-A rotation remains basically the same from opening day.
Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Polanco looking good. Solid months, ERAs in the 3s, good K/BB rates. Polanco looked the best in terms of keeping runners off base. Garcia had a nice ERA but had 17 walks in 25IP; that’s got to improve. Meckley had more walks than Ks and had his turn skipped at the last day of the month, so maybe something’s there. Roman was the real struggle for the month, with an ERA nearly 9.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco, as he was last month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month.
Bullpen comments: Last month’s highlights have all been promoted: Bloebaum, Amaral, Mejia. Good for the team to push these guys and not was their bullets in low-A. Cranz (finally) had a good month: 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Bruni had 22Ks and 11 walks in 11 innings; interesting.—
FCL/Rookie
- Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
- End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
Changes since end of last month: This is the first month of the FCL; no real major changes occurred in the first month other than to see a bunch of rehabbers return home.
Rotation Observations: At the end of last year, the rotation was Sanchez, Romero, Colon, Portorreal, and Moreno. Sanchez went straight to Low-A’s full season DL, Romero is on the Low-A DL but doing rehab starts in FCL, Moreno is still in FCL but hasn’t pitched an inning since 2023, and Colon is in the FCL bullpen putting up a 12 ERA so far, so only Portorreal returns.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run.
Next guy to get Promoted: Johnson.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. He’s 22 and can’t find the plate. Put him in the pen and give one of these over-performing relievers a shot.
Bullpen comments: We talked about Johnson; Kane (a 23-yr old MLFA) needs to move up for the challenge as well; zero runs allowed during May.
That’s it for May 2025. Lots of intriguing updates after diving into the stats for the month.
I don’t even buy Irvin as a #4 on a contending team, more like a #5 or #6. Right now the Nats have exactly one starter good enough to pitch regularly for them when they get good. Irvin is basically John Lannan.
Props to Finnegan for his improvement this season. Of course as a 33-year-old reliever on a one-year deal, it would be malpractice not to trade him.
Cole Henry has been excellent, although his 3.84 FIP argues that his 2.14 ERA may not be sustainable. In the reverse story, Ferrer has a 3.14 FIP but a 5.40 ERA. Worrisome with Ferrer is that he leads the majors in appearances with 29.
In the minors, put bubble wrap around Sykora’s right arm. He’s the real deal.
KW
2 Jun 25 at 5:51 am
While I agree that Parker is probably the first to lose his spot, I don’t think it’s at all deserved or what’s best for the team. For one, if we want to be a competitive team in the future, Parker needs to be a part of it, not Soroka or Williams. So I’d rather invest patience in him than guys who will be gone in the near future, and – to date – have demonstrated that they have next-to-zero trade value.
On the DC bullpen, I take issue with a few parts of the “throw money at a bunch of FA relievers” statement. First, do not confuse $7.4m spent on 3 separate players as “throwing money”. That’s barely above veteran league minimum. We also objectively did not sign “a bunch” of relievers either. Instead, the bullpen was a complete afterthough/oversight this entire offseason. It seems like someone only woke up to this when Spring Training was about to begin, and the club realized we didn’t have even half of a bullpen. Sims and Poche were signed within 4 days of the start of ST, and Finnegan a whole week after it began. Then after those 3 and Lopez, we did almost nothing at the minor league level, bringing in R5 pick in Reifert, and AAA FAs in Helvey, Pilkington and Weigel. That’s simply not enough, and the results are predictable.
It’s frustrating because we did sign a bunch of relievers two winters ago: bringing in 10+ players (Law, Floro, Matt Barnes, Jacob Barnes, Luis Perdomo, Adonis Medina, Ty Tice, Robert Gsellman, Richard Bleier, Steven Nogosek and TJ Zeuch) and adding even more as the season went along, and it worked out pretty well. The Nats’ bullpen was solid, carried largely by Floro, Law and Garcia. So it’s strange that we opted for a different approach this season, and it’s gone disastrously.
But part of this is connected to the broader point that comes up throughout your bullpen commentary. There’s actually quite a few relievers in our system playing really well this season. But they’re exclusively old for their level. And this happens because the team is very conservative with promotions of basically everyone except Marquis Grissom (2022’s version of Jose Ferrer), and this isn’t a new trend. I remember being perplexed as to why Ferrer spent 2 whole seasons in the FCL from 2019-2021, despite dominating batters there. Other recent stories: Jack Sinclair throwing over 100 IP in Harrisburg with a 3.03 ERA. Or this year’s examples: Robert Cranz, putting up silly numbers after a slow start in Fredericksburg. Or Tommy Kane and Luke Johnson, both 2.5 years above FCL average, who’ve shown themselves more than capable of facing better talent.
A month here, a year there. It all adds up to a drought of talent at the upper levels to the point that Salazar becomes our newest recycled solution to the bullpen’s failings. And it especially hurts when the IFA taps have run completely dry. But it sure is exciting to finally have a IFA pitching prospect to be excited about in Feliz. I honestly can’t remember the last legit Caribbean arm that’s generated even a modicum of buzz. Jose Ferrer (signed 8 years ago!) can’t be the last one, can he?
Will
2 Jun 25 at 9:24 am
I put Williams in the bullpen when Cavalli is deemed ready to pitch in the majors. Unless a lot of things go poorly, Williams will be pitching in the bullpen for the Nats in ’26 so he might as well get used to it.
Other than Gore, I’m not sure the MLB club has a starter I’d like to see starting in a playoff game. Irvin sometimes looks like that but other times doesn’t. He strikes me as a perfectly capable #4/5 on a winning team, and you need those guys on a roster. The jury remains out on whether Parker can fill a similar role, but I’d rather have him take his lumps as a starter than have Trevor Williams remind us again that he is, in fact, the same Trevor Williams he’s always been (which means he’s an MLB relief pitcher).
The other potential “playoff-caliber” starting pitchers in the org are guys we have to dream about–Cavalli, Susana, Sykora, and Herz (depending upon what you think about him). Most of the other non-Gore guys–Gray, Irvin, Parker, and Herz (depending uipon what you think about him) have mid-rotation ceilings and are more likely back-of-the-rotation guys. But still valuable. It seems like we (finally!) have a surplus of home-grown or quasi-home-grown guys who can get MLB hitters out.
Derek
2 Jun 25 at 10:57 am
@Will: “bunch of relievers” last off season, including those still in the minors, included: Helvey (released), Pilkington, Weigel, Reifert (rule5 returned), Lopez (released), Poche (released), Sims (released), finnegan, plus a slew of AA-level guys.
I think its fair to say that was “a bunch of relievers,” especially since it comprises half the opening day bullpen.
Todd Boss
2 Jun 25 at 11:20 am
@Derek; fair point on Williams->pen versus Parker->AAA.
Gray was absolutely a playoff calibre arm, who pitched like a #2. Cavalli has the stuff to be a #1/#2 starter. The rest, absolutely are dreamers. But getting to the playoffs isn’t about having a Smoltz/Maddox/Glavine rotation; its about having guys who don’t just cost you games eveyr five days (Corbin).
Our 2012 98 win team’s rotation featured a near-Ace in Gio, two guys who pitched like solid #2s in Zimmermann and Strasburg, found gold #3 in Detwiler, then the league average 5th starter in Jackson with a 99 ERA+. Nobody on that rotation was an automatic loss/bullpen crushing loser.
Our 2019 WS winning team went a different path of construction but arrived at the same spot: we paid for an Ace in Scherzer, both Stras and Corbin pitched like #2s, got got found gold #3 in Sanchez, then our #5 Fedde pitched to exactly a 100 ERA+.
So what do we need? We need frankly to buy a Scherzer/Corbin, continue to have Gore be like our Zimmermann/Strasburg, have Grey comeback to be like our Gio/Sanchez, find some found gold like Detwiler/Sanchez (maybe Cavalli), then find a 5th starter who can maintain a 100 ERA+ (Irvin/Parker perfect). we’re not that far away; but need to spend $$ to get there.
Todd Boss
2 Jun 25 at 11:28 am
Mitchell Parker turns 26 in January. Parker has failed to perform since the end of April.
In his last five starts, Parker has 6.83 ERA 1.479 WHIP. On any team other than the Rockies, that performance leads to a demotion for Parker to figure things out (which include resolving his crazy first inning troubles). Keeping him the rotation has led to regression rather than progression.
Really don’t understand how anyone can feel that Parker is definitely part of the future. Parker has had limited periods of success, but his K (7 per 9 innings) and BB (3 per 9 innings) do not demand that he’s part of the Nat’s future. FWIW, if Jake Irvin hasn’t shown enough to be part of the Nats future, have no idea what Parker has shown.
Have no problem with sending Parker down to Rochester. If he figures things out, bringing him back up, but there’s no denying his performance has dropped off.
Soroka is massively more talented than Parker. Not saying Soroka is part of the future, but the talent difference between the two is wide.
Pilchard
2 Jun 25 at 11:29 am
Parkers OPS against in his 12 starts per inning:
1st .961
2nd .744
3rd .683
4th .440
5th .765
if anyone wants to project his future on that, feel free. I’d let him keep going. I don’t see Cavalli as knocking the door down just yet.
FredMD
2 Jun 25 at 11:41 am
I think Gray has had some very good stretches of performance, but he remains a guy with a career 5.50 FIP in 386 MLB innings. By comparison, Parker has a 4.02 FIP in 216 innings and Irvin a 4.70 FIP in 382 innings. To my eyes, Gray belongs in the Nats pupu platter of back-end rotation guys, though Gray’s K-rate does suggest a potentially higher ceiling.
Derek
2 Jun 25 at 12:45 pm
I look forward to this post every month, Todd. Thanks for putting it together!
I will quibble a bit with your take on the 2019 rotation with this observation: Strasburg was nominally a #2 starter in 2019, but only because Max was there. Stras absolutely pitched like a #1/Ace pitcher. The dude SHOVED. 33 starts, 209 innings, 18-6 record (for those who care about that sort of thing), 3.32 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.038 WHIP, 251 K’s (10.8 K/9). He was a top-5 CYA vote getter.
Corbin, for all that he slogged through the next five seasons, arguably also pitched like an ace in 2019. He ended up #11 in CYA voting, on merit. We forget how insanely good that rotation was. And it was the three aces at the top of the rotation that made the Nats the team that no one wanted to face in a playoff series.
John C.
2 Jun 25 at 1:02 pm
John C., I’d also quibble a bit with the 2012 assessment. Unlike 2019, where we very publicly had 3 aces, in 2012, we had low key 3 aces. Zimmermann had a 2.94 ERA in 32 GS and 195 IP. That’s fantastic, and only a smidge worse than Gio’s 2.89 ERA in 199 IP. Both are aces, if you ask me. Then Strasburg was just as good, but innings limited to 159 IP, but with a 3.16 ERA and better peripherals to the other two. Then Detwiler and Jackson were excellent too for being the 4/5 guys. But what made the team SO good was that each of them were good for at least 27 starts and 159 IP. The team only had 12 starts all season from other than those 5 guys. That’s why they were so good. They were consistent in performance AND availability, two traits that rarely converge.
Agree with almost everyone else here that Gore is the only guy in the majors who looks to be more than a #4 in a good season, and on average a #5. Maybe Herz and Cavalli still have some untapped upside, but the injuries are concerning, and we can’t really count on anything meaningful from Herz until 2027 at this point. With Irvin, Gray, Parker and Lord (don’t forget him), it’s not inherently a bad thing if they’re merely 4s or 5s, but what we need is more consistency. At this point, I don’t think they’ll learn anything in Rochester that they can’t in DC, especially in this uncompetitive phase. And whenever our competitive window opens, we’re going to need to be able to count on them to eat innings in the 4/5 spot of the rotation, with Gore somewhere around #2, and some expensive free agents rounding out the ace and #3 spots. Then by the time Sykora is ready, Gore will hit free agency.
Will
2 Jun 25 at 2:56 pm
LOL, I’m getting a bit of whiplash from all the hot/cold/hot/cold people have been on Cavalli. Last I heard, a lot of the Natosphere had given up on him, but now apparently he’s our hope to be a #2/#3 on our future contending club.
Look, there’s no doubt that Cavalli has arm talent. But he’s currently got a 4.82 ERA at AAA and a 1.39 WHIP. The number with him that has always concerned me, dating back to college, is that he gives up a lot of hits, currently 9.2 H9 at AAA. For a hard thrower, a high H9 typically indicates that there’s not enough movement on his heater. Yes, his AAA numbers this year are a SSS, so here are his career AAA totals over 140.1 innings: 4.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.1 H9. Also, he’ll turn 27 in August.
Look, it would be terrific for the Nats if Cavalli were to realize the upper-part-of-the-rotation potential he was once thought to have. I’m rooting for that. But let’s be honest: if I took the name and the draft status off the profile that I just listed, you’d wonder why they’re still clinging to hope that this guy can be a MLB starter. He’d be in the bullpen.
Now, it would be interesting — and quite possible — if the Nats in the next couple of years end up with a bullpen back end of Cavalli, Henry, and Rutledge. But that’s also a hell of a lot of draft capital to have invested in relievers.
Speaking of relievers, I’ve always thought Parker’s funk would play well in that role. (Incidentally, despite Parker’s recent struggles, his FIP this season is still 0.01 better than Irvin’s, and career it’s 0.68 better. I’m not particularly a mark for Parker, but I’ve never understood why people think Irvin is better.)
KW
2 Jun 25 at 7:43 pm
Not pitching, but wow, Kiley McDaniel comps Luke Dickerson to Wyatt Langford: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwniyZhq9c&t=161s
KW
2 Jun 25 at 7:49 pm
KW, I look at Cavalli’s stats and I see: in 2021, a 1st round pick who put up a FIP of 2.86 in 123 IP across three MILB levels, with the only “not great” stats in a short stint (24IP) in AAA. In 2022, he put up a 3.25 FIP in 97 AAA innings. Then he got TJS and has taken a very long time to recover. His 2025 results have been good albeit in just 27 IP (his 2025 ERA is 3.25; the 4.82 ERA is from 2024 when he threw 18 IP over five starts because he was hurt.
With all due respect, to look at that his whole corpus of performance and think “relief pitcher” is insane. Jackson Rutledge he is not. Maybe he ends up in the bullpen—Keith Law has been saying he’s a bullpen guy since Cavalli’s draft year. But he’s had nothing but success as a starter in MILB when he’s had a real sample of innings. I’d need probably 1.5-2 years of an MLB FIP of > 4.50 even to start thinking of him in the bullpen
Derek
2 Jun 25 at 9:05 pm
Then call me insane. What about a 4.82 ERA at AAA at almost 27 screams “future frontline starter”?
I said in my post that I would love to see him succeed, but I’m not holding my breath. I think the Nats will bring him up as a starter, and that he’ll pitch right about to that 4.50 ERA that you mention. But hey, the second coming of Jake Irvin is better than the second coming of Jackson Rutledge.
Elsewhere, Tennessee brought in Doyle in relief last night to hang onto a spot in the super regionals: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 31 pitches. Houston went 0-5 for Wake in the loss.
Arquette homered in Oregon State’s blowout win.
And all hail Murray State, which eliminated Ole Miss on its home field, 12-11. Murray scored 42 runs in four regional games.
KW
3 Jun 25 at 6:00 am
I’m bullish on Cavalli. You can’t judge him based on his first few AAA innings after two years away. Now, if he’s still at 4.82 ERA in four months, having not earned a promotion … then we’ll have known the TJ recovery failed and we have to reconsider what to do with him. Until then, he’s still the same guy he was two years ago w/r/t stuff and potential and 4 pitches.
CWS recap coming, along with 1-1 check in with Doyle and Arquette’s regional appearnces noted.
Todd Boss
3 Jun 25 at 8:34 am
Good stuff! I hope Cavalli emerges as a stud.
Steve M.
3 Jun 25 at 11:18 am