The busiest weekend in College Baseball has past; here’s a run down of the opening weekend of the College Baseball playoffs.
Resource links to help with this:
- top 25 rankings d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
- WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
- Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
- Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com and an easier-to-read bracket.
Quick Regional Recaps of the 16 regional action, ordered by National Seed super Regional matchup. that means, the pairs of regionals being reviewed (#1 Vanderbilt regional and #16 Southern Miss regional) will determine that Super Regional. The eventual winning team is bolded.
- #1 Vanderbilt Regional Recap: Vanderbilt failed to advance to the Super Regionals as the #1 overall seed for the 2nd time in recent memory (they were #1 overall seed with David Price as their ace and also fell at a home regional), losing twice to Louisville to go home early.
- #16 Southern Miss Regional Recap: host Southern Miss inexplicably lost to Ivy League champ Columbia to open the regional, got back to the final and even forced an extra game, but the strain on their resources was too much as they fell to Miami.
- #8 Oregon State Regional Recap: Oregon State got upended in game one by a #4 seed in St. Marys, but clawed their way back, crushed St. Marys 20-3 in the loser’s bracket, then beat USC twice to advance. Phew.
- #9 Florida State Regional Recap: Florida State advanced in a relatively straight-forward regional, cruising past eventual regional finalist Mississippi State twice, once behind top-5 pick Arnold’s 7ip effort.
- #5 UNC Regional Recap: North Carolina got stretched to an extra game but persevered versus Oklahoma to move on.
- #12: Oregon Regional Recap: Host Oregon went 2-and-out to finish last as the seed and host, while Arizona beat Cal Poly twice to win the regional and advance. Props to Utah Valley for the win as the #4 seed.
- #13 Coastal Carolina Regional Recap: ECU ousted Florida, but Coasal Carolina beat them twice to win the region and advance as one of the few mid-majors remaining.
- #4 Auburn Regional Recap: Host Auburn beat all three teams in its region to advance, crushing NC State 11-1 in the regional final.
And, the eventual CWS Bottom Half:
- #3 Arkansas Regional Recap: Arkansas handled Big East’s Creighton twice to advance with ease.
- #14 Tennessee Regional Recap: Tennessee got stretched by Wake Forest to an extra game but moved on, as 1-1 draft candidate finished off the finale to the horror of the GMs drafting in that range.
- #11 Clemson Regional Recap: West Virginia came out on top of a crazy regional that saw host Clemson get whacked by last-team-in Kentucky before WVU topped the SEC team in a wile 16-15 regional final.
- #6 LSU Regional Recap: Arkansas-Little Rock as a #4 seed gave LSU everything they could handle, but the Tigers advanced to get another super regional.
- #7 Georgia Regional Recap: Everything started great for Georgia, then it fell apart; they lost the winner’s bracket game to Duke, then couldn’t even get back to the regional final, losing to Oklahoma State, to finish 3rd as a national top-8 seed. Not a good look. Duke took out OkState to win the regional.
- #10 Ole Miss Regional Recap: holy cow, how about #4 regional seed Murray State?! Beat the hosts 9-6 to open, then score 13, 19, and 12 against SEC and ACC royalty to win the regional and move on. Bravo!
- #15 UCLA Regional Recap: UCLA won an offense-first regional by beating all three teams to advance.
- #2 Texas Regional Recap: UT-San Antonio shocked the field with two wins over #2 overall seed Texas to win the region and move on.
Thus, your Super Regionals are ...
- Louisville vs Miami
- #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State
- #5 UNC v Arizona
- #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina
- #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee
- #6 LSU v West Virginia
- Duke v Murray State
- UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA
Stats/Observations of the 16 regionals.
- 9 out of 16: Seeds/Hosts to advance. Three of the top 8 seeds are out, including #1 Vandy, #2 Texas, and #7 Ole Miss.
- 6 regionals went to Monday extra game; lots of close regionals this year.
- Conference Breakdown of the 16 advancers: ACC 5, SEC 4, Big12 2, Big10 1, others 4.
- Seed breakdown of advances: #1 seeds/hosts – 9. #2 Seeds: 5. #3 seeds: 1 (Miami). #4 Seeds: 1 (Murray State).
Comments
- How about the ACC? 9 teams in, 5 going to supers. Versus SEC: 13 teams in, just 4 moving on.
- Murray State; holy cow. Usually we’re ecstatic to talk about a #4 seed getting a win, not moving on.
- UT-San Antonio; a #2 seed who took out a power house.
Performance of 1st Round projected players in the Regionals:
(we’ll put this content into our 1-1 candidate review post, coming out later this week)
Super Regional predictions: Here’s what i think happens when these Regional champs meetup next weekend:
- Louisville vs Miami: two teams with .500 records in ACC conference play are now going to give the CWS a representative from between them. I would guess Miami gets to host based on pedigree. These teams didn’t meet at all this year so no history. Prediction: Miami had a slightly harder SoS and may have a slight advantage here.
- #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State: I’m going FSU just based on having a better arm to throw game 1. FSU faced a better slate of teams all year.
- #5 UNC v Arizona: hard to pick against UNC in this position. I think these former Pac12 teams are overrated generally.
- #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina: Auburn will outclass the mid-major former CWS champ here.
- #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee: They played late in the season, at Arkansas; Tennessee won the first game, then lost the 2nd when Doyle pitched (Arkansas lit him up for 11 hits and 8 runs). I think Arkansas repeats the feat and moves on. If they can get to Doyle that easily, they’ll be tough to beat.
- #6 LSU v West Virginia; with all due respect to WVU, LSU isn’t going to lose at home with a top 5 pick throwing one of the games.
- Duke v Murray State: Murray State played, nobody, I mean, nobody this year; SoS #222. But they showed up in the Regional and I’ll bet they show up again. Murray State to CWS!
- UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA: UTSA is big-time. Top 20 RPI, 8-4 record against Q1. I think they’re going to beat UCLA.
CWS field: Miami, FSU, UNC, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UTSA
The extensive coverage of how the Nats are likely to botch this is just depressing.
Kevin R
3 Jun 25 at 10:30 am
watched all of Doyle and Arnold’s starts.
Arnold’s slider is MLB caliber right now. 119 pitches to go seven tells you his command could be better with all the swing and miss he gets.
Doyle’s FB is very good but not sure it rates as high as Arnold’s slider.
a lot of emotion from both of them, the next starts will be very interesting.
FredMD
3 Jun 25 at 10:36 am
@Kevin, it’s only depressing if you give credence to the noise.
FredMD
3 Jun 25 at 10:37 am
I think the CWS is most interesting to showcase some potential picks at #49.
I wonder if some of the guys who got hyped at various points but fell off the radar might be available around 49, like Gavin Kilen (Tenn), Ethan Conrad (Wake), Luke Stevenson (UNC) or Brendan Summerhill (Arizona)
Will
3 Jun 25 at 10:51 am
Forgot to mention, I’m not sure how Andrew Fischer on Tennessee hasn’t gotten more attention. His stats are pretty eye-popping on a very talented team: .343/.500/.762, 163 wRC+, almost 50% more BBs than Ks, but I guess since he mostly plays 1B that’s limiting his upside?
Will
3 Jun 25 at 10:57 am
@ Kevin — I’m probably considered one of the bigger skeptics around here, but I don’t think at all that the Nats are going to “botch” the draft pick. I think if they take Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, or Arquette, they’re getting a likely major leaguer. Now, what the ceiling of any of those guys is, no one seems to know. But I think they would only get into potential “botch” territory if they were to go for a wild card like Willits (I totally don’t get the buzz around a guy who Law thinks has potential power that tops out at only 45). There’s some “miss” potential in any high schooler, and Holliday is no exception, but I see his risk level as about like someone like House, who may take a few years in the minors to make it, but not Green-level risk. Taking someone like Hernandez would be really risky, but at least you could understand them rolling the dice on a potentially super-high ceiling (unlike what Willits offers).
KW
3 Jun 25 at 7:32 pm
@ FredMD — Good intel on Arnold and Doyle. I’m glad that both advanced to give everyone another look at them, although hold the 119-pitch outings, please. It actually will be a good test for both of them. As Todd noted, Doyle will be facing an ARK team he struggled against earlier, so it will be interesting to see if he can make adjustments and pitch well in a pressure situation.
Arnold will be facing . . . Arquette. A lot of us have wondered about the quality of pitching he has faced. Well, wonder no more, at least for a couple of ABs.
As for the first weekend, the general impression would have to be that Arnold and Doyle did nothing to knock themselves out of the top five picks. Arquette went 9-23 for the weekend with two doubles and then a homer in the clincher.
KW
3 Jun 25 at 7:42 pm
@ Will — You’ve got the wrong Vol infielder with the potential to drop. I would be surprised if Kilen falls out of the top 15 picks, but Curley’s stock seems to be sliding. There are defensive position questions about him, so you have to really believe in his bat. That’s even truer of Fischer as a 1B/DH.
I think there will be a number of good/interesting college players available at #49. I think they would only come into play if the Nats take Holliday at 1/1. Otherwise, everyone thinks they will be slot-saving with their first pick to dump the extra cash on a high schooler with their second one.
Note: there are a truckload of contending teams with competitive balance picks. I’d sure love to pick up one of those this year for Finnegan like they did last year for Harvey.
Player who intrigued me this past weekend: Ike Irish of Auburn. Ostensibly he’s a catcher but has been playing OF because of an injury. He hits the ball hard to all fields and seems to come up big in the clutch. He won’t be a Nat pick (Law has him at #12 on his board), but he’ll be an interesting one to watch progress as a pro.
KW
3 Jun 25 at 7:59 pm
MLB pipeline with a shake-up in their mock draft released Thursday:
#1 Kade Anderson LSU
#2 Liam Doyle TN
#3 Aiva Arquette OR St
#4 Ethan Holliday OK HS
#5 Jamie Arnold FSU
Despite the change, Jim Callis and Jon Mayo still give Holliday a slight edge to go #1. Their percentages for the candidates:
Ethan Holliday: 40 pct (Callis); 50 pct (Mayo)
Seth Hernandez: 30 pct (Callis); 20 pct (Mayo)
Kade Anderson: 20 pct (Callis); 15 pct (Mayo)
Aiva Arquette: 4 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
Jamie Arnold: 3 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
The field: 3 pct (Callis); 5 pct (Mayo)
Pilchard
6 Jun 25 at 2:43 pm
Anderson is expected to pitch in the Baton Rouge Super-Regional on Saturday.
Pilchard
6 Jun 25 at 2:45 pm