Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.
I published my Nats Prospect Rankings back in March, and the xls is here online. I have not updated it since, though we have had some movement (Crews graduated, Reifert returned, Garcia released). I’ll use my rankings as a guide to review players here. I’ll use a quick “hot or not” grading system for their start to the 2025 season.
Here’s my top 20 and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked above 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25, the day I wrote this. I realize that today 5/6 some of the below has already changed …
#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): had a brutal start to the season (getting one hit in his first 7 games) and is clawing his way out. Slash line sits at .212/.241/.356. He is projecting for a 20/20 season believe it or not, but he’s not impressing the ROY voters so far. His big concern right now is that he’s not walking, at all. He has just 3 walks on the year against 31 whiffs. Temperature: cold, but warming up.
#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): on the low-A DL, recovering from off-season hip surgery. Not considered a major injury, should debut in High-A mid-season. The team initially said he’d be out until at least May. Temperature: TBD.
#3 Brady House SS/3B: Cruising in AAA. .292/.356/.500 slash line for the month. This is drastically improved over last year’s AAA line of .250/.280/.375. Another month of this and the current Nats 3B solution of Rosario/Tena may be replaced. Temperature: hot.
#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. You can’t ask for much more from a 21yr old in AA. Temperature: warm.
# 5 Seaver King SS. No easy way to say this: King is struggling in High-a. .233/.300/.356. 27 Ks in 19 games. I was hoping for more from his debut. Temperature: cold
# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: .246/.306/.491 in AA, which is up and down a bit from his AA line last year. He’s showing more power, but less patience (just 4 walks this month). Playing mostly 1B now, so the power is nice. Temperature: luke warm.
#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. .202/.250/.333. Has been playing mostly 3B but has some 2B starts filled in, a position he may have to grow more accustomed to given House’s performance ahead of him. Maybe its the fact that the Texas League has a bunch of hitter’s parks but Wallace has yet to really produce in the Eastern League. Temperature: cold
# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): has now made rehab starts in three levels, and sits in Rochester. As discussed in my April check-in, there’s a ready made spot in the rotation right now for him, when he’s ready to go. It’s hard to gauge where he is based on him blowing away A-ball hitters, so we’ll have to see how he looks in the majors. Temperature: TBD.
#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s struggling with control so far in his High-A debut. 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Of course, he’s 19 in high-A. So no notes really. Temperature: holding steady.
# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): .240/.296/.280 in AAA. He has little power and no walks. With a full MLB outfield, Hassell needs to show us something. Temperature: cool.
#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid pro debut so far: .302/.397/.365 in High-A starting full time. He needs more walks, and needs to hit for more power, but can’t argue with a .300 hitter. Temperature: Warm.
# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: sitting in XST, yet to debut. Temperature: TBD.
# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA in his AAA debut. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the team has over-promoted him basically his entire career. He had a .363 ERA in 19 AA starts last year; was that enough to prove he needed to move up? Honestly, I think he needed another month in AA but now he’s learning the AAA ropes on the fly. Temperature: cool.
#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He is sitting on the 7 day DL in AA, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026. Temperature: cool.
#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): just finished off a super month in AA slashing .319/.340/.505 and earned a promotion to AAA as of the day of this writing. He’s kept his Ks down, and has a .500 slugging with just two homers in the month, showing a ton of gap power. I’ve been bearish on him forever and may have to change my tune. His promotion was predicated by the release of Stone Garrett, who just never could recover from his broken leg and now makes way for Lile’s spot in the AAA outfield. Temperature: red hot.
#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: is really struggling in Low-A: .115/.201/.148 for the month. Ouch. He only has 8 Ks in 15 games/61Abs, so that’s not bad. But this is not sustainable. Temperature: ice cold.
#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): As of this writing, has been activated to Low-A to make his first pro start since 2023, after missing all of last year rehabbing TJ. Our forgotten prospect, who was in the 8-10 range after his pro debut but now has drifted down into the deep teens. If he can return to his promise and his scouting report, he could be an important down-ballot prospect for this team. Temperature: tbd
#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): can’t ask for much more here: just an 18th rounder who made the team out of spring training and who is now getting MLB starts. His numbers are mediocre in the majors, but his success story is top notch. He’s a massive success story for this team’s player development and amateur scouting department. Temperature: red hot for the development, luke warm for the production.
#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: on the DSL roster for now, may get promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season. Temperature: tbd
#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): slashing .233/.333/.349 as a starting corner OF in AAA. For now he’s starting, but may need to improve production.
Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:
in AAA:
- #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) got the opening day start for AAA and been holding his own but has a 1.50 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit.
- #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has been stellar in the MLB bullpen, after the team finally wised up and moved him to relief.
In AA:
- # 36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has gotten promoted twice already and is now contributing in the MLB bullpen. His numbers in the majors aren’t stellar, but he’s there.
- # 41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has already gotten promoted to AAA and should slot into the AAA closer role. He could be someone to replace an underperforming MLB reliever soon.
- # 47 Phillip Glasser SS is destroying AA pitching right now: .373/.418/.471. Not bad for a $20k bonus senior draft pick.
In High-A:
- #23 Elijah Green is still not hitting. .176/.265/.324 with 40 (!) strikeouts in 21 games. I’m just not sure what to say here. He should still be in Low-A until he learns how to hit.
- #26 Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled in his last April start). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. That’s promising and he may be moving up in prospect ranks soon.
- #27 Armando Cruz is at .192/.222/.250.
- #51 Brenner Cox is at .167/.231/.217 with 31 Ks in 16 games. Just not cutting it and i’m not sure why he was promoted out of Low-A.
In Low-A:
- #21 Christhian Vaquero is marginally improving his slash line, showing some power this year. .244/.320/.395.
- #42 Robert Cranz, the sudden top 30 prospect on BA and Law’s lists, has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. So, good and bad.
- #43 Randal Diaz, also surprisingly on Law’s top 20 list for the system, is struggling out of the gate. .230/.326/.270.
This early in the season everything is so volatile to the precise endpoints, especially for the levels below AAA.
It looks like you pulled stats as of May 1st – but if you add the last few days back in, Morales goes from “luke warm” to “red hot”. wRC+ of 152 for the season and an ISO of .274 – which ranks 3rd in the Eastern League. (Up from 131 and .236 as of May 1st – which actually feels a bit better than “luke warm” to me even keeping your cutoff.)
Also, King continues to put more distance between him and his awful start. Two monster games this week pushed his wRC+ up over 100. Given his age, level and expectations, that feels more “luke warm” than “cold”.
Other than that, I agree with your takes. A lot of guys holding serve around expectations, and mostly good news on the guys I think are most important – House, Morales, Susana. The only real important downward shock is Cavalli maybe having another setback.
SMS
6 May 25 at 2:53 pm
Can’t say I have good feelings about Cavalli.
Kevin R
6 May 25 at 5:48 pm
@KevinR: agree. Here’s the Nats injury update report: https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-injuries-and-roster-moves
RHP Cade Cavalli (Nationals’ No. 7 prospect)
Injury: Tommy John surgery rehab
IL date: March 26 (15-day IL, retroactive to March 24)
Expected return: Second half 2025
Status: Still throwing bullpens and reassessing after he removed himself from Triple-A rehab start on April 29 because of right arm fatigue. (updated: May 5)
“expected return is 2nd half of 2025??” that’s two more months away. WTF? He’s doing rehab starts now and they expect those to last into July?
Todd Boss
7 May 25 at 9:36 am
Rizzo talked about Cavalli on the radio this morning (May 7), and while he didn’t give a specific date, Riz made it sound like Cavalli could be up fairly soon. A lot sooner than July.
Jackson Kent had a monster game last night (May 6). Showing elite stuff (11 Ks in 7+ innings) and control (1 BB). A lot to like so far.
Pilchard
7 May 25 at 1:40 pm
@Pilchard: Cavalli? will believe it when i see it. Not sure how he fits in honestly: who makes way in the rotation? The worst-performer … is the one on the longest/most expensive contract, because of course Trevor Williams has turned into a pumpkin. But they can’t cut him. So maybe Cavalli’s return will be timed with the next “soft tissue” injury to one of the current five so they don’t have to make a hard decision.
Kent: can’t be happier with his performance so far. His game logs so far are pretty sweet:
https://www.milb.com/player/jackson-kent-800600#stats-block
– 3.2ip, 4 hits, 1run, 6/3 K/BB
– 5ip 1hit, 0 runs, 9/0 K/BB
– 5ip, 3hits, 1ER, 4/3 K/BB
– 7ip 3hits, 1r, 5/1 K/BB
– 4ip, 9hits, 8runs, 6/1 K/BB
– 7.2 5hits, 2runs, 11/1 K/BB
He’s given up 13 runs on the season, 8 in one game. I’m guessing he’ll be moved up with just a couple more starts like he’s been giving if not sooner; AA is short a starter right now and has been doing these Miguel Gomez opener/bullpen games while the likes of Soroka and Cavalli have done rehab starts there.
Todd Boss
8 May 25 at 10:06 am
@Todd – It’s just wild that you were so certain that TW’s results last year were real. I remember you pegged a 5 WAR projection on him, and then cited Maddox as proof that FIP is an incomplete model.
And now after 35 innings, you’re ready to cut bait. Even though, by FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA, he’s pretty much pitching to expectations.
Last year, BABIP luck and impossible HR/FB ratios aside, TW was a perfectly usable usable backend rotation piece. Maybe a bit better than that by rate stats, but severely innings limited. This year he’s been pretty much the same.
I’m sure that if/when Cavalli is ready, they’ll make room for him, even if it means moving Soroka or TW to the pen. He’s more important to the team’s future than either of those guys. (Though I would have to think Rizzo would be tempted to steal back one of the lost years of control with a 2 month stint in Rochester. Which also conveniently would keep the two FAs in the rotation ahead of the trade deadline.)
SMS
8 May 25 at 10:56 am
@SMS. on Williams, so yeah I did a pretty in-depth look at what was making improved from a pitch type perspective and was convinced it was sustainable. I didn’t want to just believe 2024 was all luck.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-williams/16977/stats?position=P
Now, FWIW, he’s got a .360 BABIP right now, so that’s overly high like 2024 was overly low. This year though his velocity is down, a lot, his GB percentage is way down, his flyball/homer percentages are up. So, that’s just not good. I really thought he’d found a sweet spot of velocity loss/ball movement last year. Has he now moved out of that small gap and gone into complete hittability? Possible; his vFA is just 87.7 this year. That’s really slow. In fact, 87.7 would make him the SLOWEST qualified starter in the entire game. His velocity is now down from 91.2 just 3 years ago. Ouch.
I’m not sure i’m ready to “cut bait” but i’m pretty disappointed in how he’s started 2025. And, i think i’m just stating the obvious that if the team wants to see What Cavalli can do, they’re not making room in the rotation by removing anyone else. Gore pitching like an Ace, Parker and Irvin north of 100 ERA+, Soroka just coming back and on a $$ contract … so its Williams who would make way.
Todd Boss
8 May 25 at 11:35 am
Green should seriously think about grabbing a football helmet before it’s too late.
Anonymous
9 May 25 at 8:13 am
If Denaburg can make the switch to football 7 years after being drafted, Green can too!
On Williams, remember, Williams is Soroka v1.0. Williams was excellent for the Mets in relief before we signed him, and many wondered if we’d utilize him the same way. We didn’t. He was really bad in 2023. He resurrected his career for a couple months in 2024, and seems to be back to the guy we knew from 2019-2021 and 2023.
With how historically bad our bullpen is, I wonder how long Rizzo will refuse to use two potentially very good relievers in Williams and Soroka out of the pen, when we have competent SPs like Cavalli and Lord being wasted in AAA or out of the pen. Even Seth Shuman, Andrew Alvarez and Tyler Stuart may be additional factors if they (in Shuman and, to a lesser extent, Alvarez’s case) sustain their strong starts, and if Stuart’s rehab goes smoothly.
Will
9 May 25 at 8:40 am
Sykora today: 3 IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 8(!!!)Ks.
Pretty pretty good.
Derek
9 May 25 at 6:26 pm
@derek: while yes 8ks in 3 innings is good …Sykora is in t-ball comparatively to where he should be right now. He should ahve been promoted to High-A in mid-summer last year and probably is too good for High-A right now. I think he needs to be in AA by year’s end.
Todd Boss
9 May 25 at 9:49 pm
Obviously that’s 100% correct, Todd. But it’s still pretty fun that his season K/9 dropped today because there was a groundout.
SMS
9 May 25 at 11:33 pm
Baseball needs a NIL like uprising and and a class action lawsuit to free it’s minor league players from slavery. Minor leagues should be one year contracts for everyone except the multi million dollar bonus babys.
Imagine not having the opportunity to advance your career and merit based income potential due to a
forced long term contract paying you peanuts – because you are blocked by Rizzo starting Dylan Crews every day in MLB. Or Bell, or Jacob Young. (Yes I know he’s good at defense)
Anonymous
11 May 25 at 8:16 pm
Anon, I don’t disagree with the amoral treatment of minor leaguers, but who is getting blocked by Crews, Young and Bell?
Lile looks exciting but he’s only played 10 games in AAA. For all the hype, Hassell’s OPS is .588 in AAA, though marginally better this season, and Yepez, Rochester’s 1b/DH, has a .622 OPS.
Its much easier to release Eddie Rosario when you have James Wood waiting in the wings.
Will
12 May 25 at 10:59 am
@SMS: fair enough on Sykora 🙂
Susana: grade 1 UCL sprain. God dammit, why can’t we have nice things.
Todd Boss
12 May 25 at 1:34 pm
@Anonymous: only problem with your statement is …. Minor League Baseball players voted to unionize and joined the MLBPA in August 2022. So, they’ve agreed to their current structure. And, not for nothing, but pay drastically increased once MLBPA came into the picture. As for the structure/length of contracts … you’ve taken a massively pro-player view (one year contracts). What if i’m the Washington Nationals and i’ve invested a decent amount in a prep player (lets use Sir Jamison Jones as an argument). He dind’t get “multimillions of dollars” but he didn’t get nothing. So we develop him all 2024, he’s now playing in FCL in 2025. We’re still developing him, coaching him up. What if he blows up this year? The nats would get zero benefit of their time and investment in the player with a one year contract. There just has to be some length of development where the team keeps control.
If a player is blocked, guess what? that’s what the rule5 draft is supposed to protect against. It specifically allows teams to pick players from other teams’ rosters who they think can play in teh majors right now. That’s exactly what Rule5 is for.
Todd Boss
12 May 25 at 1:38 pm
I could see the fairness of a system where only $1M+ bonuses lock you into the current 6 year minor league contracts, and maybe $500k+ buys the team 4 years and $100k+ buys the team 3. Under $100k and it’s only 2 years. But it would be a very hard issue for the union to push for, and I’m not sure most of the low bonus players actually would benefit from more inter-system churn. I bet a lot of org guys would just end up with shorter careers.
Maybe the player wouldn’t have full MiLFA rights, just the opportunity to opt out and the team could override that by paying them $100k or something to keep control for another year. That way the team would still be incentivized to develop these guys.
SMS
12 May 25 at 2:18 pm
I feel sorry for players like Glasser who is on a season long heater and can’t advance to the chance to making real money. Whether he is a real major leaguer or not, in other sports they would put him in for a few plays. Or if in college he would transfer because a 5 star recruit who is playing terrible is blocking him and keeping him from reaping NIL money.
Just an example… and maybe not a great one. But I have sympathy for these guys who play well and are forced to toil in the minors for political reasons or teams’s bad decisions that are tough to unwind. And you have mentioned a lot of pitchers and other players that could not possibly play worse than those taking their spots. They only have so many years to cash in on an athletic career in their prime. Crews has done nothing in the minors or majors to deserve a spot in MLB right now. Glasser might not be a good one or a great example, but there is no way he could perform worse than Crews at the moment. These Crews type decisions are one reason why we suck.
Anonymous
12 May 25 at 11:10 pm
Anon, again, I too am frustrated by prospects getting blocked because of bad decisions made in DC. Drew Millas not getting a fair shot due to Ruiz and Adams drove me nuts. Same story about Eddie Rosario and literally anyone else.
But making this about Crews vs Glasser is missing the point. Crews plays RF & CF. Glasser plays… basically every position EXCEPT RF & CF. Glasser is not being blocked by Crews. Second, why do you think Glasser is a lock to outperform Crews in the majors? Crews has a career minor league OPS of .806. Glasser has a career OPS of .833. Also, Crews put up those numbers while being about 3-4 years younger than Glasser.
Complain about Amed Rosario or Paul Dejong blocking Glasser. But Crews is a young prospect just like Glasser. We need both Glasser AND Crews to develop into productive major leaguers if we hope to compete in the future. But Rosario or Dejong will be gone next year, so what’s the point in giving them playing time? Make us a 73 win team instead of a 71 win team?
We don’t suck because Crew is playing in the majors, we suck because Crews is the best batting prospect we’ve drafted in the past 13 years. Our player development system is garbage and the organization doesn’t either doesn’t care to fix it or know how to fix it.
Will
13 May 25 at 4:15 am
I’m just using Glasser as an example. I agree I don’t know specifics his or Crews’ position. Was more a general statement about how terrible baseball is on career path. And even if they bargained rights away, it is probably illegal if really challenged. Holding players back for service time or giving certain minor leaguers no path to the majors or ability to maximize their income no matter how well they are playing is crazy for a short career window.
Every team has minor leaguers that would play better in a certain time frame than current major leaguers if given a chance. And many are not blocked by superstars. What other sport does this happen? Rule 5 should be all season long is one way to fix it. It works like that in NFL. You can sign guys off someone else’s practice squad at any time to active NFL roster. That’s fair! If someone deserves to be in the top league and the big money that comes with that, they should have the chance for that league wide!
Anonymous
13 May 25 at 6:32 am
@Anonymous: you seem to think that the team doesn’t want to promote prospects … because its political? I mean .. the MLB team wants to win. You’re hard pressed to find this team making a decision to actively try not to win that doesn’t have any other reason. That’s just dumb to claim.
Glasser was a 10th round senior sign who’s now 25 in AA playing against mostly 22-23 yr olds. I think its awesome he’s hitting well this year. Last year in AA he slashed .172/.294/.172 at the same level. But come on; lets be honest with ourselves. If Glasser was such an awesome prospect he would have signed as a draft eligible junior, or even as a 4th year senior, he would have gotten more money than he did as a 5th year senior ($20k), and other teams wouldn’t have passed on him 284 times before we got hi 285th in the 2023 draft. An entire industry usually isn’t that wrong on a player, and most senior signs like him are lucky to get more than one pro season.
Todd Boss
13 May 25 at 12:51 pm
In other news … the team promoted Dickerson to low-A after just 6 games. Jamison might not be far behind, in that he’s hitting even better than Luke.
Todd Boss
13 May 25 at 12:51 pm
Also, it seems like you’re arguing that … we should have Glasser in the majors instead of Crews?? Because Crews is hitting .186 right now? What about Josh Bell? He’s hitting .138. What about our gold glove finalist CF Young? He’s only hitting .212 but with almost zero power. I guess based on your argument we should take every guy in AA who’s had a solid month and they should be playing in the majors?
Todd Boss
13 May 25 at 12:54 pm
Great news on Dickerson. For HS draftees and IFAs, low-A is the first major proving ground. Excited to see how he fares.
That said, I don’t think SJJ is getting promoted for a while. I think the team wants to keep keep their prospect catchers (Loma, Bazzell and SJJ) each getting as many innings behind the plate as possible. And there’s nowhere to move Bazzell to, unless something drastically changes with his bat.
So, I think they slow walk SJJ slightly and wait until after the FCL season is over. Having them split time at that point isn’t as big a deal.
SMS
13 May 25 at 1:09 pm
Yes Todd you are arguing my points for me… Somebody in the minors probably at least deserves the chance to replace Bell, Young and Crews. It’s not about the specific players as I’ve said. I’m asking do you want to be stuck in a career where you you might not get the chance to ever make the big money because of systemic issues? Do you feel sympathy for that? If Glasser does not deserve it, why does Crews deserve to be there? And Young has more fans for a .212 hotter than seems plausible. Just like NIL, everyone should be free agents if the difference to their career is life changing money in a short window if somebody is willing to pay it.
Anonymous
14 May 25 at 10:00 am
@Anonymous: You don’t seem to realize what a massive leap it is from level to level in the Minors. Claiming that a non-prospect who happens to have hit well for a few weeks should/could succeed in the majors is laughable. Similarly, claiming that the likes of Bell, young, or Crews having a slow start to the season and thus needing replacing is also laughable. Baseball is a long season, the ebbs and flows of the batted ball even themselves out over time, and these players have more than proven themselves at this point.
As for your general claims… who exactly are you claiming is being kept in the minors for “political reasons?” What makes you think that you, person who won’t put his/her name to these claims, knows better about the 147+ players we have in the minors right now versus the guys in the majors? Washington right now as we speak has a 7th rounder starting CF, a 4th and 5th rounder in the rotation, an 18th rounder (!!) who is in the LR/SS slot, and an undrafted FA in the bullpen. Not one of those players would normally be “expected” to make it, especially anyone outside the top few rounds. Yet here we are, with these players not only promoted fairly but succeeding in the majors instead of 1st and 2nd rounders from their same draft years.
Do I feel “sympathy” for players in the minor leagues? Of course not. They’re playing a game for a living. No they’re not getting rich in the low minors, but they’re not getting paid nothing. They’re pursuing a dream.
Todd Boss
14 May 25 at 11:36 am
Travis Sykora actived off the IL, and will pitch Game 1 tonight for F’burg at Delmarva…
Pilchard
14 May 25 at 12:36 pm
Fredericksburg?? Why? Why? He better only be down there for like 1 “rehab” start.
Todd Boss
14 May 25 at 3:30 pm