Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

ST 2025 NRI Analysis

26 comments

House is the highest profile NRI this year. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

You know we’re getting close to Spring Training when the annual press release goes out announcing Non-Roster Spring Training Invitees (NRIs). The Nats announced the initial crop this week, immediately forgot at least a couple guys who have ST invites on their transactions page, and probably will add more as they sign up veteran FAs, but for now here’s who we have:

(Note: the NRIs are color coded purple on the Big Board for tracking)

  • Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord, Tyler Stuart, Konnor Pilkington, Jarlin Susana, Joan Adon,
  • Relief pitchers: Daison Acosta, Marquis Grissom Jr., Clay Helvey, Jack Sinclair,,
  • Catchers: Andrew Knizner, Caleb Lomavita, Max Romero Jr., and Brad Lindsley (left off Nats announcement)
  • Infielders: Brady House, Yohandy Morales, Cayden Wallace
  • Outfielders: Daylen Lile, Andrew Pinckney, Franchy Cordero (left off press release)

The list includes a huge chunk of our projected AAA roster: i’d say of the 16 NRIs listed here, 14 of them will be in AAA to start the year. In fact, the only ones who won’t be in AAA are Susana and Romero, both probably heading to AA.

NRIs are important. Believe it or not, more than a dozen of 2024’s NRIs eventually played in the majors last year, some with pretty significant roles. So this group collectively will play a big role for the 2025 team. Traditionally 3-4 will make the team out of ST to open the season, while others get called up.

NRIs generally fall into several categories:

  1. Top Prospects getting their first shot with the big boys: this describes at least Susana, Lomavita, House, Morales, Wallace, and Lile. I suppose Pinckney is here as well since he doesn’t qualify for any of the other categories.
  2. Starters to eat split squad innings: I would throw Lord and Stuart in this bucket, along with Adon.
  3. Catchers, because we need people to catch all these ST bullpen sessions: Knizner, Romero, Lindsley
  4. Veteran MLFAs who were promised the NRI as a condition of signing: Helvey, Plington, Cordero
  5. Under-the-Radar relievers who might be useful middle relievers: Acosta, Grissom, Sinclair

Is Adon still a prospect? After four option years, what exactly does the team need to see here? Perhaps they’re planning on converting him to relief, so he’d fall into category #4.

The team has already signed a dozen MLFAs for 2025, but only a couple have NRIs. This in and among itself is a message, but some of the non-NRIs are surprising.

  • We have a MLFA 28yr old catcher CJ Stubbs on the AAA roster right now: no NRI.
  • Andrew Alvarez is slated to be in the AAA rotation; no NRI.
  • We’ve heard people rave about reliever Carlos Romero: no NRI.
  • The only lefty reliever in AAA Garvin Alston? no NRI.
  • We’ve signed several aged 28-30 MLFAs who got assigned to AA straight away, an indication they’re just org arms.
  • We’ve also signed several younger relief arms this month, all in the 23-25 range, newly 6-year FAs after being young IFA signings; these kind of guys may need more seasoning and aren’t candidates to join the bullpen.
  • A few rule-5 candidates we talked about at length but no NRI include Solesky, De la Rosa, Made, and Shuman, which probably tells us what we need to know about the organization’s thought about these guys.

Who’s likely to make the team out of this list? Probably a bit early to predict, but I only count 9 total relievers on the entire 40-man right now, one of whom is out with TJ. So, there’s opportunities here for especially the arms who can slot into bullpen spots.

We didn’t really talk about the top prospects in camp. Of them, House seems the most likely to win a starting job, based on the lack of a FA 3b signing. We’ve litigated him to death; no he’s not ready, he probably needs to prove himself for a half season in AAA. The rest of the prospects all seem slated for either AA or AAA to get more time in the minors. I’m intrigued by Morales’ potential … but the team has basically bought itself enough 1B/DH cover that it seems unlikely for him to break camp.

Thoughts?

Written by Todd Boss

January 24th, 2025 at 12:55 pm

26 Responses to 'ST 2025 NRI Analysis'

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  1. The Nats just signed Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who profiles as a SP, but could conceivably be used in relief?

    We sure do have a glut of SPs and next to no relievers. Will Rizzo FINALLY bite the bullet and start converting some of these guys to relief? Rutledge is candidate #1, but Cavalli, Alvarez, Solesky, Luckham should be in the mix too.

    Otherwise, I think we have more SPs in MLB/AAA than we do relievers:
    1. Gore
    2. Irvin
    3. Parker
    4. Herz
    5. Williams
    6. Soroka
    7. Ogarasawara
    8. Rutledge
    9. Cavalli
    10. Lord
    11. Stuart
    12. Alvarez
    13. Pilkington
    14. Choi
    15. Solesky
    16. Luckham

    Is Adon still around too?

    That’s an outrageous number of starters! Interesting approach we’re taking this season – an 8 man rotation?!

    Will

    24 Jan 25 at 2:58 pm

  2. I think Ogasawara is a lock for the rotation. You want a rough depth chart in my view:
    MLB: Gore, Williams, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara. Soroka to bullpen, Herz back to AAA, Gray on DL.
    AAA: Herz, Cavalli, Stuart, Lord, Choi. PIlkington opts out, Rutledge and Adon to bullpen, Alvarez swingman
    AA: Henry, Lara, Luckham, Saenz, Solesky and Shuman. Henry may be on DL which gives five. If they want to move up Susana Shuman makes way
    High-A: Sykora, Susana, Bennett and then pick 2 from 5 (Davis, Tepper, Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, tolman)

    Todd Boss

    24 Jan 25 at 3:32 pm

  3. There’s nothing in Ogasawara’s stats that looks dominant. I don’t think he’s a starter lock at all. I do think it would be a nice development for the Nats to have some multi-inning relievers in the mix. Davey has a bad habit of leaving his starters in an inning too long.

    I’m glad that Adon wasn’t lost in the DFA. He’s still just 26. Let him truly learn how to be a reliever. Same with Rutledge, particularly now that the seem to be pretty healthy with potential starters.

    Pinckney’s ceiling is at least as high as Lile’s, and I think Pinckney has more power potential. He’s also closer to the majors than Lile, so I don’t see the reason for drawing a distinction. It will be very interesting to see if there’s some sorting during the spring among those two plus Hassell.

    The inclusion of Susana is interesting. I guess they figure that if he’s starting the season at AA, he’s within hailing distance of the majors if he’s really dominant.

    Wallace and Morales have a lot to show after injury-riddled disappoint in 2024.

    Cavalli’s health will also be very interesting to see. A healthy Cade might force his way into the rotation.

    KW

    24 Jan 25 at 5:29 pm

  4. I don’t know – I’m mostly with Todd on Pinckney. He was a senior sign from an SEC school, so I pretty much ignore his exploits from A-ball. A league average line in AA last year is fine, but not really all that impressive.

    He’s a prospect, but I have him a clear step or two below Lile and Hassell towards the backend of my top 30. He seems like an outfield version of Lipscomb, but Lipscomb from last spring when we thought he had a puncher’s chance to be a useful utility player.

    SMS

    24 Jan 25 at 6:36 pm

  5. When the Nats signed Soroka and brought back Williams it was reported that they were signed as starters. It’s not clear that any such assurance was given to Ogasawara. I pencil him in as fighting for a rotation spot but likely ticketed for the bullpen. Certainly the financial commitment ($3.5M over two seasons, a bit over $4M when you count the posting fee) doesn’t scream “starter” to me. We shall see.

    If we assume that four of the rotation spots are penciled in for Gore, Irvin, Soroka, and Williams with Parker and Herz dueling with Ogasawara fighting it out for the #5 spot, I tend to slightly lean towards Herz there. While Parker is one year older and overall pitched more innings last season (155 vs. 128), Herz has a better peripherals and (to my Mark 1 eyeball) better stuff. Obviously who can stay healthy and how they look in ST will carry a lot of weight.

    John C.

    25 Jan 25 at 1:06 pm

  6. I’m not so much high on Pinckney as I have my doubts about Lile. At least Pinckney has the track record of 18 homers in his final season at Bama, which is three more than Lile’s pro career total across 255 games.

    Look, what the Nats have is three guys in Hassell, Lile, and Pinckney who are corner OF candidates who slugged under .400 last year. Unless you’re a wizard at the plate and in the field like Ichiro, that ain’t gonna cut it at the MLB level. The reason I haven’t given up on Hassell is that of the three, I still give him the best odds to find power, followed by Pinckney, then Lile. But I wouldn’t bet much on any of them based on current track records. FWIW, Pinckney will be in his age-24 season, Hassell his age-23, and Lile his age-22. They’ve all still got a little time to find something extra . . . if they have it in them.

    KW

    25 Jan 25 at 1:26 pm

  7. Don’t forget Cavalli in the starter mix.

    I agree with John C. that three likely starters — unless one completely blows it in the spring — would seem to be Gore, Williams, and Soroka. They made promises to Williams and Soroka, and paid them at that level.

    Beyond those three, I HOPE they have a good ol’ truly legit competition, which rarely happens, but we can always hope. I would put Irvin, Parker, Herz, Cavalli, and Ogasawara in that pool for two slots. I know there’s a lot of assumption that Irvin is ahead of Herz and Parker, but several stats disagree, including FIP, ERA, ERA+, and K9. Of the three, Herz has the best stats in general, but the least experience.

    Cavalli’s level of recovery is the big wild card. If he’s throwing 99, it’s going to be hard to keep him out of the rotation. If he’s not throwing at least 94, there’s going to be good reason to wonder . . .

    There has also been a bit of speculation that perhaps they would look at Cavalli as a closer, since they still don’t have one.

    KW

    25 Jan 25 at 1:44 pm

  8. Rizzo just did an interview where he said that Soroka and Williams are indeed starters and that Ogasawara is merely in the mix for the rotation, and that if he didn’t win a spot out of ST, he’d start the season in AAA.

    So unless Herz or Parker has a nightmare, it sounds like he’ll not be in the rotation. However, I wonder how long they let him play in AAA before biting the bullet and using him in relief? Though if our rotation isn’t unusually healthy like it was last year, that may not turn out to be an issue.

    Will

    25 Jan 25 at 2:49 pm

  9. @KW: what constitutes a “truly legit competition” in ST? Remember that on an annual basis we have to remind ourselves that ST results mean very little, if anything. It’s not just SSS, it’s SSS under artificial conditions. If the Nats choose among the starters based on their track records + advanced stats/analytics more so than their ST results, I would argue that that would (could?) be a truly legit competition.

    And it would give us something else to grouse about. Not that we have any trouble on that score.

    John C.

    25 Jan 25 at 6:37 pm

  10. John, I don’t disagree, particularly since there will be vastly different levels of guys they’re pitching against, and they’re only pitching two or three innings early in the spring, etc. I just don’t know how they’re going to decide among Irvin, Parker, and Herz in particular for the last two spots, and as I said, what if Cavalli miraculously shows up throwing 99? It’s definitely a good “problem” to have, though.

    KW

    25 Jan 25 at 8:38 pm

  11. I have to figure that the team already knows what they plan to do in the absence of any injuries or a trade (and either or even both of those is decently likely), and that there would need to be some very egregious issues in ST to deviate from that. Like if Parker or Herz can’t find the plate. Or if Irvin’s FB is 2 ticks slower than last spring, I’m sure that would earn them an option to AAA. But I just can’t imagine the team will or should make any decisions based who gets hit hard during 15 innings of practice.

    And I also will point out that even a short option will capture a year of control on Parker (and Gore, though I doubt that will come up), but Herz or Irvin would have to be down most of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up being a tie breaker (though I also think Herz has upside that the others don’t, and wouldn’t option him for merit / dev reasons).

    I suggested it as a joke on Harper’s blog, but maybe they are going to run tandem starters. 6-man rotations stretch the bullpen terribly, but that shouldn’t be the case with tandem starters that cover 7+ innings almost every start (and sometimes pitch the full 9. I mean, I really doubt that’s what Rizzo is thinking, but it would be an interesting strategic attempt to cash in on the strongest part of our roster (ie SP depth).

    Also, @KW, that’s kind of exactly my point regarding Pinckney. Lile is going to be the same age this spring as Pinckney was his senior year. You give Lile a metal bat and send him against up college pitching and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he mashes 20+ HRs. Ranking aside, though, I certainly agree with you than neither of these guys look likely to secure a 26-man spot any time soon. Hassell is mostly in that same boat too, though his defense gives him OF4 outs that I’m not sure the other two have.

    SMS

    26 Jan 25 at 11:44 am

  12. Upon seeing the paltry amount Ogasawara signed for ($3.5M), i’m no longer thinking he’s a lock for rotation. Here’s what I now think goes down in ST:
    – Locks irrespective of ST stats: Gore, Williams, Irvin
    – 4th/5th leaders in clubhouse: Soroka, Parker
    – In the mix if someone gets hurt; Herz, Ogasawara
    – AAA/AA for sure: Cavalli, Rutledge, Lara, Henry

    Todd Boss

    27 Jan 25 at 9:02 am

  13. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/

    Keith Law’s top 100 for 2025, always the contrarian, lists Seaver King but not Susana. Every other shop i’ve seen so far lists same 3 guys in top 100: Crews, Susana, Sykora.

    https://prospect361.com/2025/01/27/2025-top-100-prospects/

    Then you see this guy, who has Crews 1-1, and still Lists House, who has lost a lot of top100 buzz lately, probably unfairly for a 21yr old in AAA.

    It’s a good problem to complain about.

    Todd Boss

    27 Jan 25 at 9:39 am

  14. I’m pretty sure they moved Henry to relief during his last attempt at rehab, and that’s what I expect from him this year if he’s healthy enough to pitch at all.

    And I think Herz has the edge over Parker, and maybe even over Irvin, in the scenario where no injuries or trades clarify the situation between now and opening day. You just can’t fake strikeouts like that – his 10.76 K/9 was 10th among starters with 80+ IP last year. Parker and Irving were both under 8 and ranked 82nd and 97th out of the 138 starters on that list.

    SMS

    27 Jan 25 at 2:14 pm

  15. 2024, MLB numbers only:

    Irvin 4.41 FIP, 91 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP, 7.5 K9, 8.3 H9, age 27
    Herz 3.71 FIP, 97 ERA+, 1.26 WHIP, 10.8 K9, 7.7 H9, age 23
    Parker 3.85 FIP, 94 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP, 7.9 K9, 9.2 H9, age 24

    I don’t dislike Irvin, who has significantly better numbers than Fedde ever did as a Nat. But I also don’t understand the presumption that Irvin is more likely to be in the rotation than these other two.

    FWIW, while I also agree that Soroka seems to have been promised a chance to start, all three of these guys had better numbers than he did in 2024:

    Soroka: 4.95 FIP, 87 ERA+, 1.38 FIP, 9.5 K9, 7.5 H9, age 26
    (Yes, he’s seven months younger than Irvin.)

    KW

    27 Jan 25 at 5:48 pm

  16. Law’s comments about Crews echo a conversation that Will and I had recently in the comments on Luke’s site. I haven’t “given up” on Crews by any means, but I’ve also yet to see the “generational,” Harper/Rendon type of player we were told that he was when he was at the top of the boards. Law says now that he may “only” be a 3-4 WAR player, which is a fine piece for a team to have, but the Nats were hoping that they were getting a superstar. We’ll see.

    It will be interesting to see if Crews starts getting regular time in CF in the spring, or if they’re content with Young there for now.

    It’s good to see Law’s enthusiasm for Seaver King, although as with any draft pick, it’s too early to tell much.

    KW

    27 Jan 25 at 7:29 pm

  17. @KW, I noticed the same. Law’s write up sounds a lot like our discussion. He’s underperformed quite significantly, but that’s still good enough for 3-4 WAR! What a strange way to underperform…

    Another thing that jumped out to me on Law’s list was Susana not featuring. Susans spent half the season in Wilmington, so I’d hope that Law would have seen Susana in person at least once. I’m curious to see his Nats list to understand why he’s comparatively down on Susana.

    Last point, seeing Termarr Johnson in the 90s got me thinking about our wasted 2022 draft. We’ve discussed ad nauseum how drafting Green was a mistake, which some of us argued at the time as well. But seeing 1-2 Druw Jones, 1-4 Johnson, 1-5 Green, 1-6 Jacob Berry, and a favorite of mine at the time 1-11 Kevin Parada totally bust is pretty startling. 2022 was hyped as a historically good draft, and yet somehow it’s been alright, but for not the players that were expected. Just check out the rankings of the players from the top 15 vs the back end:

    1. Jackson Holliday, graduated; former #1, but for whom I cannot recall a wider gap in prospect status and MLB performance
    2. Druw Jones, #95 (rating solely due to reputation and not performance)
    3. Kumar Rocker, #51 (who people absolutely PANNED after his injury history)
    4. Termarr Johnson, #92 (see Druw Jones)
    7. Cade Horton, #74
    8. Brooks Lee, graduated; #31 in 2024
    13. Zach Neto, was in many cases not ranked due to how fast the Angels rushed him to the majors. He did briefly feature in the top 100 of some lists however (and with 6.8 bWAR is far and away the most valuable player of the draft so far)
    14. Jett Williams, #61

    16. Chase DeLauter, #90
    17. Justin Crawford, #42
    18. Cam Collier, #83
    21. Cole Young, #45
    26. Noah Schultz, #20
    32. Sal Stewart, #100

    It’s pretty remarkable when you consider how the top 1-5 picks tend to be exponentially more valuable than picks in the 20s. And yet, outside of Jackson Holliday, the latter half of the draft may end up yielding more value than the front half. Very strange.

    Will

    28 Jan 25 at 4:34 am

  18. I won’t defend the Green pick, since I was against it at the time. There just seemed like too much risk. It is instructive to look at just how many times the #5 pick has failed, though:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=5&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0

    The Royals failed back to back in 2011 (Starling over Rendon) and 2012 (Zimmer over Fried).

    I’ve reached the point where I would be (pleasantly) surprised if Green makes it, and really surprised if Vaquero makes it. Viewed right now, both are looking like significant and costly whiffs (perhaps an appropriate metaphor.

    As for Susana, Law, instead of judging on actual performance, seems to be sticking to his prediction that Susana will struggle at higher levels:

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5739028/2024/09/03/mlb-prospect-scouting-jarlin-susana-vance-honeycutt/

    “He won’t turn 21 until March, so in the context of his age he’s doing extremely well — we’re not waiting on stuff and he’s performed at two full-season levels now. I do think he’s going to run into trouble next year between the below-average command, which is at least in part a function of the delivery, and the lack of a real weapon for left-handed batters.”

    Frankly, that approach seems somewhat hypocritical of Law, who has a habit of over-hyping younger players despite a lack of actual performance to back it up.

    KW

    28 Jan 25 at 7:29 pm

  19. Interesting. Basically a 50/50 shot of being an All Star or irrelevant. What struck me is that in the past 20 years only one 5th pick hasn’t reached the majors (Matthew Hobgood, who IIRC was a highly divisive pick by the Orioles. Well, not really divisive, because it was only the Orioles who thought he was good). Unless something changes, it looks like we’ll have the 2nd.

    Thanks for that write up of Susana. Hadn’t seen it. Interesting that Law also picked up on Susana’s struggles vs lefties.

    Will

    29 Jan 25 at 8:26 am

  20. @KW: “Law has a habit of over-hyping younger players” … i’m not sure I agree with that take on Law’s stuff. He’s always been one to basically ignore DSL guys til they show up domestically and his comments on House posted today ignore the hype and offer legitimate criticism of his approach at the plate right now, even though he’s 21 in AAA and well entrenched in other top 100s.

    Now, Kiley mcDaniel? Phew. Never saw a 17yr old with a $4M bonus he didn’t like.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jan 25 at 8:53 am

  21. Speaking of younger prospects … the Nats just released Edwin Solano from DSL team. He was a $1.3M signing in 2023.

    Now, i’m not saying that they should have kept a guy who hit .117 his first season and .174 a second season … but that’s a pretty big miss for such a big bonus amount.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jan 25 at 12:58 pm

  22. There’s been past stories of teams giving other players bonuses as a way to essentially circumvent bonus allotments. I think the Braves were sanctioned for doing something like this, albeit under different spending rules.

    Assuming no shenanigans with the Nats, it’s hard to understand how they could miss so badly on a player. I understand when guys like Cristhian Vaquero struggle mightily as they rise the affiliate ladder. But how a guy like Solano commanded such a high bonus when he was so evidently overmatched against his 16/17 year old peers in the DSL is astonishing.

    Maybe Solando was one of those guys who they informally signed at age 13 or 14, and his physical development stalled since then, and the Nats still honored the original terms?

    But it’s not like the rest of the ’23 IFA class is doing any better. Andy Acevedo (another receiving $1.3m) did little more than Solano in the DSL in ’23, but still got sent stateside, where he hit an embarrassing .171/.292/.183 in the FCL. No wonder there was a complete shake up of our Dominican scouting operations. It feels like these bonuses were detached from reality.

    Will

    29 Jan 25 at 2:10 pm

  23. That’a pretty striking about Solano. $1.3M is the back of the 2nd round; I wonder who’s the highest picked 2023 draftee that has already been released. And you’d think that the younger players would have the even longer leash.

    It makes me wonder if it’s not performance based at all, other than his performance being the reason his upside isn’t worth the headache.

    SMS

    29 Jan 25 at 2:24 pm

  24. Curiosity got the better of me, so I looked up what other caliber of players were signed for similar values than Solano and Acevedo. The only other player I can find who signed for $1.3m in ’23 was Jeremy Rodriguez, who has featured in a number of top 100 prospect lists. lol

    Yoeilin Cespedes signed with the Red Sox for $1.4m. Keith Law just ranked him 97th overall.

    Welbyn Francisca, who also signed for $1.4m has skyrocketed up the ladder, and hit an extremely impressive .325/.402/.402 in A ball.

    It’s not all success stories Kevin Ereu, who also signed for $1.4m had a bad ’23, but bounced back to have an above average ’24 in the DSL.

    But still, that’s a lot more hits than misses.

    Will

    29 Jan 25 at 2:27 pm

  25. @SMS: I thought the same. This team, over and over, has let the size of bonuses dictate player moves. For them to bail on this guy given that amount of money and the fact he hasn’t even turned 19 yet … makes me wonder if it was off the field stuff.

    FYI, Baseball America just released top 30. I’ll review it and post soon.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jan 25 at 3:00 pm

  26. It’s also worth noting … the fact that these DR players agree at age 12-13, then have official pen to paper at 16 is patently ridiculous. We’ve had 1-1 draft picks out of college who went undrafted as 18yr olds b/c they were so underregarded … and thats maturity from 18->21, not 12->16.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jan 25 at 3:01 pm

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