
The class of 2025 is now set.
Two first-ballot hall of famers in CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki will join last-gasp 10th ballot electee and Virginia native Billy Wagner in Cooperstown later this year. They’ll be part ofa 5-man class, joined by selectees David Parker and Dick Allen.
Here’s some quick thoughts.
1,. Billy Wagner
In my HoF fake ballot post, I said i wouldn’t have voted for him. I went back and searched all my fake ballot posts going back to 2017 … and I’ve never really vacillated from this stance. In a couple of posts I said, “eh, maybe” on Wagner but I was never a yes. I think its a product of my reliever bias in general, whether it’s evaluating the value of a closer or the value of a prospect.
Nonetheless, you can’t argue with his dominance. A 187 CAREER ERA+ is nothing to shake a stick at, and I’m glad he’s in.
2. CC Sabathia
Sabathia becomes a first ballot Hall of Famer. I’ve always liked Sabathia and its a great honor to cap his career. Funny how nobody ever accused him of being a PED guy. He was more likely to be accused of being an all-you-can-eat buffet violator, not a drug test violator.
However, here’s a thought exercise for you. Here’s two arbitrary players overall career stats.
- Player A: 256-153 W/L, 3.85 career ERA, 117 career ERA+. 531 career games, 2448 career Ks. 3 ASG, 4 times in the Cy Young top 5 voting. 276 post season innings, 3.81 post season ERA.
- Player B: 251-161 W/L, 3.74 career ERA, 116 career ERA+. 561 career games, 3093 career Ks. 6 ASG, 5 times in Cy Young top 5 but won one. 130 post season innings, 4.38 career postseason ERA.
One of these players is first ballot hall of famer CC Sabathia. The other is Andy Pettitte, who never got above 27% support for the Hall. When you go to baseball-reference and scroll down to “Similarity Scores” for Pettitte … guess who is #1? You guessed it: Sabathia.
Does this make sense to you?
3. Ichiro Suzuki
The obvious storyline here is the one gutless BBWAA anonymous voter who left Suzuki off his ballot. There’s not a soul in the sport who can support denying Suzuki a vote. So he joins a small group of players who were denied unanimous induction by either one vote (Derek Jeter) or a handful of votes (Griffey missed 3 votes, Cobb 4, Seaver 5, Ryan 6, Ryan 8). Did you know that Babe Ruth was ommitted on NINE ballots in 1936?? Can you imagine the outcry in today’s social media landscape? The hated Ty Cobb got more votes than Ruth on the original HoFame ballot.
Anyway.
Next closest on the ballot were Beltran with 70% in his 3rd try, and Jones with 66% on his 8th try.
I support both candidates. Yes Beltran was embroiled in the Houston trash can banging scheme, but his career was clean during a time when PED was rampant. Jones was the next coming of Willie Mays until he wasn’t; I like both guys, and both have a good shot of going in soon. The 2026 ballot doesn’t exactly have inspiring first-time candidates: the highest bWAR new candidates are Cole Hamels (just 163 career wins) and Ryan Braun (with his testosterone test nonsense), so voters may lean into existing candidates a bit more. But, that’s a conversation for a year from now.
a few days ago I took a look an Jones’ stats. I was surprised at how good they are. he’ll get in and should.
you could argue that if CC played his entire career on the Yankee teams that Pettitte did his stats would be even better but yes, Andy deserves to get in.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 11:31 am
I’m more unsympathetic towards relievers in the context of greatness than I am when we’re discussing fringe prospects like we were a few weeks ago.
I believe that if you took all the SP2/3s in the league and converted them to be closers, something like 15% of them would fail and the rest would be excellent. So it’s weird that such a pitcher would have a decent chance make the hall if, and only if, there’s a rotation crunch or something at the right moment that forces his conversion.
Of course, no one actually cares enough about the HOF to make any decisions based on that perverse incentive but it just irks me a bit.
Still, as you say, Wagner’s rate stats were elite and if you’re going to induct relievers at all, it can’t just be Rivera, so I’m fine with him going in. It’s just interesting to see the voters pinch the starters with weaker cumulative stats because of modern usage and then reward the relievers who don’t even come close.
SMS
22 Jan 25 at 12:11 pm
If Pettitte gets in, Bonds, ARod, Clemens and the rest of the PED users had better get in too. Pettitte, as many seem to have forgotten, was included in the Mitchell Report, and then publicly admitted he used PED across multiple seasons.
Will
22 Jan 25 at 4:13 pm
I had forgotten that.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 4:45 pm
@SMS – your point regarding how successful converted starters would be is an interesting one. Luke Weaver must be your poster boy. he was probably a 3-5 SP so maybe even more proof. I will be interested to see how long he succeeds, if he does continue to do so.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 4:58 pm
@Will Pettitte didn’t admit to using steroids, but did admit to using HGH as a way to try to rehab from an injury in 2002. Which was the thing that got him into the Mitchell Report so the the two are not separate incidents. So the established/admitted violations are for the 2002 season, not over multiple seasons.
I’m not excusing it; I don’t think that I’d vote Pettitte for the HOF.
John C.
22 Jan 25 at 6:20 pm
I didn’t say he used steroids. I said he used performance enhancing drugs, which HGH very clearly is, and is presently banned by MLB: https://www.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_5ac1b51876554fc283b5e74e7e25be68.pdf
Also Pettitte admitting to using HGH in 2002 and 2004: “In 2004, when I tore the flexor tendon in my pitching arm, I again used HGH two times in one day out of frustration and in a futile attempt to recover. Unfortunately, I needed surgery on the arm later in the year. I regret these lapses in judgment”
Will
23 Jan 25 at 6:29 am
What a gutless wonder to be the single no vote for Ichiro, then hide and not admit it. We know that there were no empty ballots, so the jerk actually voted for others but not the most obvious candidate.
I can see someone arguing that Ichiro isn’t an “inner circle” guy because of his relative lack of power. If you believe that, then publicly make your argument. Blessedly, nearly all the voters have moved on from the last-century attitude of “we don’t think this guy deserves to go in on the first ballot.” Apparently one holdout, hiding in a cave somewhere, still hasn’t. Presumably he’s still in therapy because Joe Mauer will forever be a “first-ballot Hall of Famer.”
argument that could be made that Ichiro isn’t an “inner circle” guy because of his relative lack of power. But if that’s what you believe, publicly make the argument. And he’s still a Hall of Famer, no matter how you slice it.
KW
23 Jan 25 at 1:13 pm
Pettitte: honestly I had forgotten his HGH admission.
Here’s the difficulty in Pettitte’s admission; would you really lump him in with Bonds and Clemens and other players who have evidence of long-running usage and clear evidence of sustained or changed stats? I don’t think so. So … is it thus “ok” to ignore it and just assume he’s telling the truth, that he tried it to recover (he did miss time in 02 and 04 but was remarkably durable the rest of his career).
If the answer to my question is “yes I believe him” … then why believe him and not others who have adamantly denied usage? Is it just because Pettitte is a nice guy who has always been good to the media, while Bonds was an arrogrant pr*ck to the media his whole career?
Does anyone really KNOW that other stars of the time did NOT use? Derek Jeter? Would baseball’s collective heads explode if it was disclosed he was a PED user long side his yankees teammates Clemens and Giambi and Sheffield?
Then let me ask you this: what’s the salient difference between using HGH and Cortisone? Why is one illegal and a PED while the other is shot up weekly? Isn’t that kind of arbitrary?
Todd Boss
23 Jan 25 at 1:37 pm
I’ve always been divided on the steroid guys. I did not think they should be “first ballot” guys (yeah, I’m playing that card that I just argued against), but the Hall is going to have to deal with them eventually, right?
There’s also the argument — which Todd has made over the years — that MLB didn’t outright outlaw it until the 2000s. Is there an additional HOF “penalty” to be paid by guys like ARod and Manny for multiple positive tests and suspensions after the ban? (Probably).
And let’s face it, there’s also the Asshole Factor. Bonds and Clemens are the two best players who stand accused. The logjam really can’t break until something is done about them. But they’re so hated that no one is going to carry the torch for them.
Will asked in the comments on the last post about how/why Ortiz got in. You can chatter about how there’s less evidence, yada yada, but at the core, he got in because everybody loves Big Papi. There was even less evidence against Piazza and Bagwell, but again, a big part of the reason that the voters were willing to not worry about it was likeability.
I didn’t like Bonds when he was playing, even before he got, um, unusually large. But pretty much any way you slice it, he’s the greatest player ever. Now, it’s easy to argue that if he had had a more “normal” decline like someone like Griffey (or what we’ve seen of Trout in recent years) that he might “only” be one of the top 20 or so, but that’s still pretty much the inner circle. It’s sort of the same with Rocket — even with a normal decline, he’d still have Pedro-like numbers.
It’s dicier when you look at some of the others. Pre-juice, Sosa was never more than a 5-WAR player and was only in the nether regions of the MVP vote. McGwire couldn’t stay healthy. It’s doubtful that he could have made it to 500 HRs. We see a similar but unaugmented story playing out now with Stanton trying to hang on to make it to 500.
I also agree with all who argue that it’s hypocritical for the Hall to have the great enabler, Bud Selig, as a member while keeping these guys out. Selig was a disaster on multiple fronts, not just that one. He was sort of the Mendoza Line of commissioners.
KW
23 Jan 25 at 2:13 pm
I’m all for voting in the steroid era guys, because 1) the evidence of who and who didn’t do steroids is bogus. There was no systematic testing and only a couple cases where certain unlucky players got ratted out because of basically random circumstance. To then definitely say “these guys did steroids” and everyone else didn’t is stupid. Why are we so certain Frank Thomas had absolutely nothing to do with steroids and Barry Bonds did?
2) MLB was actively permissive of steroid use. It was the worst kept secret, but MLB did nothing to stop it, until it become a political issue, because it was good for the game post-strike! That we celebrate Selig in the HoF for presiding over this “tainted” era, but villainize the players, is again stupid.
In the absence of actual systematic use, induct the best. And Barry Bonds is without a doubt one of, if not the best players in the history of baseball. And yet Harold Baines is a Hall of Famer, and his contemporaries Bonds, Rodriguez, Clemens, McGwire are not. It’s a joke.
Will
24 Jan 25 at 6:57 am
@will: totally agree.
Here’s a cynical take: have you guys ever been to Cooperstown and visited the Hall of Fame? Guess what: Aaaaalllll those steroid guys have artifacts in the museum, and are mentioned by name. Because they’re all important parts of baseball history. They just don’t have a bronze plaque in the brightly lit room at the end of the tour for enshrinees. Does the museum care that the writers have ignored these players? I don’t think so. Its not like people are boycotting the museum b/c these 5 guys don’t have bronze plaques.
Manny Ramirez was a moron who inexplicably tested positive well past the time he should have for plausible deniability. Manny Ramirez was also the most dangerous right handed hitter probably since, i dunno, Willie Mays or Hank Aaron? He spent a decade in the top 5 of MVP voting in the AL. He got traded to LA and put up 3.5 WAR in 53 games! If he was at the plate in a clutch post season situation … it was “stop what you’re doing and watch” territory. Just as an example.
Todd Boss
24 Jan 25 at 9:52 am