One of the last 2 remaining “big pundits” in the space released their top 30 today, as Sam Dykstra, Jim Callis, and Jonathan Mayo put pen to paper and released our Nats top 30 list.
Links to past major pundits include: Keith Law, Baseball America, Prospects1500. Others just do top 10s or are behind firewalls. One last big one remains: Fangraphs, who is churning them out now team by team.
Here’s the top 30 in tabular format
| MLBPipeline rank | First Name | Last Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eli | Willits | SS |
| 2 | Travis | Sykora | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Harry | Ford | C |
| 4 | Jarlin | Susana | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | Gavin | Fein | SS |
| 6 | Luis | Perales | RHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Seaver | King | SS |
| 8 | Luke | Dickerson | SS/CF |
| 9 | Devin | Fitz-Gerald | SS |
| 10 | Landon | Harmon | RHP (Starter) |
| 11 | Alex | Clemmey | LHP (Starter) |
| 12 | Ethan | Petry | 1B/OF (Corner) |
| 13 | Yoel | Tejeda Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 14 | Jackson | Kent | LHP (Starter) |
| 15 | Alejandro | Rosario | RHP |
| 16 | Miguel | Sime Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 17 | Coy | James | SS |
| 18 | Christian | Franklin | OF (CF) |
| 19 | Andrew | Pinckney | OF (Corner) |
| 20 | Yeremy | Cabrera | OF (corner) |
| 21 | Marconi | German | SS |
| 22 | Sam | Peterson | OF (CF) |
| 23 | Angel | Feliz | SS/3B |
| 24 | Abimelec | Ortiz | 1B/OF (Corner) |
| 25 | Ronny | Cruz | SS |
| 26 | Eriq | Swan | RHP (Starter) |
| 27 | Sean Paul | Linan | RHP (Starter) |
| 28 | Caleb | Lomavita | C |
| 29 | Yohandy | Morales | 3B |
| 30 | Nauris | De La Cruz | OF (Corner) |
Thoughts.
- We seem to have settled on a “Big 5” in the system, with nearly every pundit having the same 5 guys at the top in some order. Willits has separated himself as #1.
- This is the highest i’ve seen Sykora kept with his TJ surgery amongst rating systems, which implies that he’d be #1 over Willits if he was healthy. That’s probably not saying anything ground breaking.
- The next 4 guys: all trade bounty. Our entire top 20 now is Draft or Trade acquisitions; you have to go down to #21 to find the first IFA in German Marconi. Hopefully the new regime has a plan to return our relatively disastrous IFA system into something that generates talent.
- They have King and Dickerson 7 and 8. I think that’s still high for both, but its inline with where others have them. I understand the narrative, especially surrounding King, but Dickerson didn’t have the benefit of an AFL season where he raked to remind people of his potential.
- Remember what I said previously about ranking Prep RHP with big bonuses? Harmon: #10. Yup, right where I said he’d be.
- They’re a little low on Clemmey … he’s 2 years out of HS, and spent those two years moving up 3 levels of the minor leagues. Why would anyone rank him below a kid we just drafted who’s pitched exactly zero pro innings? Remember; had he gone to college Clemmey would be a College Junior right now just starting his draft-year season … for us he’ll be the opening day starter in AA where he’s already got a month of experience.
- Just like Keith Law, they’re incredibly high on Tejeda, ranking him #13. wow. Reading his scouting report, they’re putting the 6’8″ starter at mid 90s, which plays up with his height, with 2 decent secondary pitches and a 60 grade on his slider. They say 4th or 5th starter ceiling. Can’t wait to see what he does in 2026.
- They’re also pretty high on Jackson Kent, noting his 18 K/BB ratio but only giving him a 50 for his control (weird). Another guy who’ll be in AA in 2026. Can’t wait to see this crew run through Richmond (June 9th-14th) to get a look at some of them.
- Ironic they have Franklin and Pinckney ranked right next to each other: they’re basically the same prospect at this point. AAA Outfielders with some pop.
- They’re not fans of Sam Peterson, top 10 on other lists but at #22 here. They say 4th OF.
- Lomavita all the way down at #28; that seems way too low. Then again, Law didn’t have him in his top 20 nor in his Honorable Mentions, so maybe the shine is off of him, especially since Ford is now the heir-apparent
- Morales gets dumped even further; man this guy is just not respected by these shops for getting to AAA at age 23 and holding his own.
Outside the top 30 guys include
- Any 2026 IFA signing
- Kevin Bazzell; he’ll need a productive season to get back
- Sir Jamison Jones; Law loves him at #14
- Jorgelys Mota; maybe a solid High-A season will help.
Nobody else of note: MLBpipeline does a pretty conservative list.
Some wonky stuff here. If you told me one player had a scouting report of Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | what would you grade that as overall?
What if I gave you another player a scouting report of Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 50
Which player would you prefer?
The first player got an overall score of 55. Its Harry Ford. Meanwhile the 2nd player got an overall score of 40. It’s Sam Petersen.
I don’t understand how you could come up with such a wide disparity.
Will
2 Mar 26 at 5:30 pm
Another good one: with similar age/level profiles, Yohandy Morales has a career line of .285/.362/.438, which is good for a mere 45 Hit tool.
While Seaver King has a career line of .250/.305/.343, good for a 50 Hit tool.
I’ll never understand the Morales erasure. Dock him all you want on power or fielding. But it’s nonsense to critique a career .285 hitter’s hitting ability.
Will
2 Mar 26 at 5:39 pm
@Will – On that first comparison, I think part of it is that Hit is by far the most important tool, but most of it is because 45 fielding from a catcher is way way more valuable than 50 fielding from an outfielder. Basically Ford gets a very generous curve because of positional scarcity.
And on Morales, I’m 100% with you. Morales’s AA called + swinging strike rate: 26.1%. King’s was 26.3%. And Morales has a better BB/K and way way more power. I mean, Morales has slipped a few spots on my rankings with the recent trades, but I will never understand why all the pundits hate him.
Other than that, I just think it’s an underwhelming list. I haven’t read through all 30 yet, but so far I’m not seeing a ton of new information or insight.
I don’t see why they dropped Clemmey – and not just in the ranking. They had him a 50 last year and now he’s a 45. I wouldn’t think solving A+ and struggling with HRs in 30 IP of AA would be seen as a negative for a 19 year old.
Kent’s 3 years older, did well though quite a bit worse at A+ and struggled though not as badly in AA. He got a bump from 40 to 45.
They also had Harmon at a 50 last year, and dropped him to a 45 based on literally no new information. And King goes from a 50 to a 45 on the heels of his rather impressive AFL. (I actually agree with King being a 45 but I don’t see how you can have him as a 50 last August and a 45 now.)
They also dropped Angel Feliz and Yeremy Cabrera from 45s to 40s, and that makes no sense to me. Both teenagers clearly met or exceeded expectations last year.
Oh well. I think FG is looking at late April for our list.
SMS
2 Mar 26 at 6:38 pm
respectfully, I’m not sure hitting .249/.330/.401 with a 30% strikeout rate is holding his own.
Morales will get a chance to repeat the level this year and at 24 all is not lost. I could not care less where he’s ranked, he’s still a prospect
FredMD
3 Mar 26 at 8:31 am
@FredMD: hitting .249/.330/.401 with a 30% strikeout … as a 23yr old in AAA. If he was a 25yr old with those numbers, yeah i’d understand #29 in a system.
Todd Boss
3 Mar 26 at 4:40 pm
I guess if your biggest problem is that a guy like Morales is considered to be the 29th-best guy, you’re doing OK.
He doesn’t appear likely to be an MVP 1B, but they need a solid 1B. Yoyo looks like he has a good shot at that.
kevin r
4 Mar 26 at 11:09 am