The first big scouting shop just released their top 30 prospects for 2026, and it’s a doozy. There’s big deltas between theirs and what we know of so far from other shops, lots of recognition of players who had break-out seasons in 2025, and lots of new names from this time last year. Let’s take a look.
I’m going to add in their ranking from 2025 as part of the below table and part of the discussion.
| Current Rank | Jan 2025 Rank | First Name | Last Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not yet drafted | Eli | Willits | SS |
| 2 | 3 | Jarlin | Susana | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Not Yet Acquired | Harry | Ford | C |
| 4 | Not Yet Acquired | Luis | Perales | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | 2 | Travis | Sykora | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | 6 | Alex | Clemmey | LHP (Starter) |
| 7 | 5 | Seaver | King | SS |
| 8 | 11 | Luke | Dickerson | SS/CF |
| 9 | Not yet drafted | Coy | James | SS |
| 10 | 15 | Angel | Feliz | SS/3B |
| 11 | Not yet drafted | Landon | Harmon | RHP (Starter) |
| 12 | 40 | Sam | Peterson | OF (CF) |
| 13 | Not yet drafted | Ethan | Petry | 1B/OF (Corner) |
| 14 | 16 | Andrew | Pinckney | OF (Corner) |
| 15 | 36 | Jackson | Kent | LHP (Starter) |
| 16 | 22 | Yohandy | Morales | 3B |
| 17 | Not Yet IFA signed | German | Marconi | SS |
| 18 | 8 | Caleb | Lomavita | C |
| 19 | Not yet drafted | Miguel | Sime Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Outside top 40 | Jorgelys | Mota | SS |
| 21 | Not yet drafted | Ronny | Cruz | SS |
| 22 | Not yet Acquired | Christian | Franklin | OF (CF) |
| 23 | Not yet Acquired | Sean Paul | Linan | RHP (Starter) |
| 24 | 35 | Yoel | Tejeda Jr. | RHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Outside top 40 | Riley | Cornelio | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Outside top 40 | Andrew | Alvarez | LHP (Starter) |
| 27 | Outside top 40 | Phillips | Glasser | SS |
| 28 | Outside top 40 | Nauris | De La Cruz | OF (Corner) |
| 29 | 17 | Brayan | Cortesia | SS |
| 30 | Not yet R5 drafted | Griff | McGarry | RHP (Starter) |
So, Here’s some macro facts from just BA’s top 30 today versus one year ago:
- 12 of the 30 are new to the Organization since Jan 2025
- 5 from the 2025 Draft (Willits, James, Harmon, Petry, Sime)
- 5 from Trades (Ford, Perales, Franklin, Linan, Cruz
- 1 from the 2025 IFA class (Marconi)
- 1 from Rule-5 in December (McGarry)
- 2 of the top 30 were outside of the top 30 last year but in the “honorable mention” 30-40 range (Tejeda, Peterson)
- 5 of the top 30 were not listed in BA’s top 30 (or even their extended top 40) last year (Mota, Cornelio, Alvaraz, Glasser, and De La Cruz)
- 11 of LAST year’s top 30 are no longer eligible:
- 9 Graduated with enough MLB time: Crews, House, Cavalli, Lile, Hassell, Millas, Rutledge, Nunez, Lord)
- 1 have been traded (Bennett)
- 1 were DFA’d and are gone (Brzycky)
So, for as much as I’ve criticized the player development of the Rizzo regime … that’s an awful lot of guys matriculating to the majors and being productive parts of the MLB team. Perhaps you can quibble about how much they’re “contributing,” but when you push 9 prospects to the MLB roster in one year … that’s a win. Of course, many of these guys are the ones who are supposed to be contributing: of these 11 graduates, six were 1st rounders and another three were 2nd rounders. I have harped ad naseum about the Rizzo regime “blowing” basically every 2nd round pick (and a bunch of 1st rounders) for a decade straight … but now some of them are actually making it.
Ok, so that being said, lets run through some comments/observations on this list.
- #1 Willits has either been #1 or #2 on every ranking since his arrival. No surprise he’s top here. BA has him arriving 2028 at age 20, which is CJ Abrams’ last year before FA. Something tells me we’re not going to get to that point with CJ on this team, which means we’ll be putting a stop-gap at SS (Nunez?) or maybe Willits blasts through the minors Bryce Harper style and is starting at age 19.
- BA keeps Susana just above new high-profile acquisitions Ford and Perales despite his injuries last year. Other shops have him perhaps in-between the two.
- Sykora slots in at #5, just below the two guys we’ve just acquired. That implies he was #3 before we got these two guys in trade. I took some grief for dropping Sykora to 5th on my own list at the end of 2025’s season … when I republish that ranking in April I probably will adjust it slightly.
- There’s probably an implicit “gap” between our current top 5 and even to #6, Clemmey. The next 5 ranked guys are all relatively young as compared to the AA and AAA heavy top 5.
- King comes in at #7 … probably on the back of a few hot weeks in the AFL. That seems to be consistent where other shops have him ranked right now. I was very down on King in September, and now have rebounded, perhaps drinking the AFL kool-aid. I mean, we want the guy to succeed right?
- Dickerson somehow retains his top 10 ranking despite an awful season at the plate in 2025 and faces a positional conundrum shortly: who plays SS for Low-A next season? Luke may be finding another position. Luckily we already knew he was like a SS/CF coming out of HS.
- Our big money RHP 2025 prep kids (James, Harmon, Sime) come in ranked #9, #11, and #19 respectively. James (the 5th rounder) is highest here, over 3rd rounder Harmon (both got the same $$ figure). I know some pundits struggle to rank these kinds of guys: prep RHP are the riskiest of risky in the sport.
- The first big out of nowhere name: Sam Peterson at #12, one slot ahead of Petry. This guy blew up in 2025, nearly posting a 3/4/5 slash line in High-A as an 8th round pick the year before. That’d be some found gold right there if he continues to contribute. Also: 18/0 SB/CS in High-A and he plays a true CF. Sounds like a Jacob Young-type (an unheralded 7th round defense-first college bat).
- Pinckney at #14 just seems high. I just don’t see where he goes with this organization. He’s, what, 8th on the OF depth chart? (Wood, Hassell, Crews, Young, Wiemer, Lile, Franklin ahead of him): only 3 of them can play at a time. Seems like we should move him.
- Lomavita at #18 seems a bit low, and the acquisition of Ford really changes the trajectory of the entirely of our Catcher depth chart right now. I don’t think Ford is on the MLB team to open the season with just a few MLB ABs, but he’ll be starting in AAA. Which means Millas is either on the MLB bench or on the AAA bench. I’m not sure where Adams fits in; he signed a split contract (meaning he has negotiated his minor league salary), meaning they’re anticipating going to the minors … but he has no options left, which means he’ll have to pass through waivers to get off the 40-man. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. My initial guess? Ruiz/Millas in MLB, Ford/Adams in AAA, Lomavita/Romero back in AA, Bazzell/Rombach in High-A, with all the starters just waiting to see if Ruiz can keep his starting job.
- Next up on the surprise inclusion list: Jorgelys Mota, 3B in Low-A. He’s starting to get noticed. He’s also part of a major log-jam in Low-A: the following guys are all solid prospects in the 18-20 year old range who play on the right side of the infield: Willits, Dickerson, Feliz and Mota. That’s 4 guys for 2 spots in Low-A where they all belong. Maybe one of them is pushed up to High-A, or maybe they all juggle ABs and IPs in Fredericksburg, maybe Dickerson goes to CF.
- Cornelio’s great 2025 finally gets him onto the BA list at #25. He was the Nats Minor League Pitcher of the Year and deservedly gets included in the BA top 30.
- Alvarez, who has almost never been considered a prospect, comes in at #26. I’m super curious to see how Alvarez’ 2026 shakes out. Is he really in the mix for a MLB rotation spot? I mean, Small Sample Size of course but in 5 late season starts he had a 2.31 ERA that was decently supported by his FIP (3.39). Do you stick him in the bullpen? Does he have the right kind of stuff to be in a MLB pen? Or, do you put him in AAA again to keep him stretched out? I dunno. Good problem to have I suppose.
- Phillip Glasser gets ranked by a major shop for the first time ever, after his Nats Minor League Hitter of the year season in 2025. He’ll be a starting corner OF in AAA in 2026, but he’s got the same problem Pinckney does: positional congestion. Of course, Lile looked completely blocked at the beginning of 2025 as well, then hit so well you kind of have to find a spot for him in the lineup. So, things can change.
- Nauris De La Cruz gets the #29 spot after mostly solving DSL pitching this year; final slash line .294/.448/.450. He’ll be state-side in the FCL to start 2026. Hopefully Florida food will help him fill out (6’0″ and 160?!).
- Our new rule-5 pick Griff McGarry comes in at #30; he should make the MLB bullpen and graduate pretty quickly.
Notable Players left off the BA top 30:
- Eriq Swan: I may have the trade-acquisition over-rated on my list.
- Orelvis Martinez, AAA MLFA signing who MLBpipeline has at like #20 right now
- Andry Lara: I’ve been down on him for a while but many still hold out hope.
- Daniel Hernandez: an interesting omission given that he’s as high as #13 elsewhere and was a big-money IFA signing, but he struggled in his first DSL Season (don’t worry, he was super young upon signing)
- Cristhian Vaquero: I’m guessing he’s still hanging around in the 30-40 range on BA’s list, like he does on others.
- Josh Randall: Edge of the top 30 type on many lists.
- Tyler Stuart: TJ knocks him off for a bit; hopefully can get back.
- Cayden Wallace: hard to believe how far he’s fallen. Maybe he can put together a solid season and regain some prospect status. Would love to see him hit to his capabilities and fill the 2B slot in the bigs so we can move some guys around.
- Victor Hurtado: that $2.8M in 2024 IFA bonus not looking good
- Elijah Green; phew he’s getting up there as our biggest 1st round bust ever, if not already there.
Writer’s note: corrected Ronny Cruz’ acquisition method in the top section; he was acquired in the Soroka trade, not via the draft. Thanks to @Will in the comments for the correction.
Slight correction: Cruz came via the Soroka trade, not the draft.
This is all rather nitpicky, but some of my impressions:
Too low: Sykora (I’ll continue to beat the drum that Sykora put up an historically good 7 month stretch between 2024-2025. Like “best in the minors” good. Spells like that cemented guys like Andrew Painter and Jackson Jobe as top 20 overall prospects.) Petry and Lomavita
Too high: Jackson Kent, and I really don’t know what to make of the ’25 HS draftees. For example, Coy James is 3 months younger than Angel Feliz, and will likely start the season in FCL, whereas Feliz has already mastered the FCL and will play in Fburg, it’s hard to justify putting James ahead of Feliz or a bunch of other guys with established track records of success at higher levels (like Petersen).
I also can’t believe they didn’t rank Orelvis Martinez other than prospect fatigue (or they forgot about him). There’s no scouting/statistical argument to be made that Ronny Cruz or Jorgelys Mota, just to name two similarly profiled players, are better prospects than Martinez.
Will
9 Jan 26 at 2:47 pm
Since we were just talking about Lao, it’s been formally announced he’s been released to go to Japan, and the Nats claimed Paxton Schultz, a reliever from the Jays.
Will
9 Jan 26 at 4:57 pm
@will; will correct Cruz comment.
Sykora: I struggle with him as well. On the one hand, he was awesome. On the other hand, he’s out for a year with an injury that’s not 100% guarantee to come back. So, do you rank him entirely on what he was doign pre-injury? If so maybe he’s #1 over Willits, at worst #2 right? But you have to account for the lost year and the risk of the surgery. So, initially i dumped him to #5 (Willits, Susana, Clemmey, Bennett). Now, I’m thinking at worst he should have been #3 pre Ford acquisition. Do you put him ahead of Perales? Yeah i think you do; Perales’ prospect rank is entirely based right now on 9 stellar starts in 2024; he mist most of 2025 injured. We have more time before I re-rank .. but now i’m leaning Willits-Susana-Ford-Sykora-Perales. Which is pretty close to BA’s rank they just did.
Kent: I had him #18, which would now be more like #20 with acquisitions … #15 is highest we’ve seen. MLBpipeline had him #19 at end of season. I think that’s the right range. He’s not blowing people away like Sykora, but his numbers seem to indicate he’s been relatively unlucky. In both his High-A and AA stops, his FIP was well below his ERA, and in his AA tenure they’ve got his Xfip at 2.98 (almost exactly what Susana had in his AA stint with comparable innings). I think i’m ok with him somewhere in this mid-teen range.
James/Harmon/Sime: big money, big arms. I have no problem putting them where they are for now, but also have no problem lowering them (not unlike how our big-money IFA signings have disappeared) if htey struggle out of the gate. Hard to compare a 3B IFA with two pro years under his belt to a prep RHP though … if it was like for like (arm for arm or bat for bat) perhaps more so.
Todd Boss
10 Jan 26 at 10:14 am
fwiw, Roster Resource unpacks the SS/3B log jam at F-burg by bumping Dickerson up to Wilmington. Would you think Mota and Feliz get some exposure to 2B in order to get Mota, Willits, and Feliz time together in the field? I suppose some DH time for all of them would be an option, too. Can’t consign either Willits or Feliz off the SS spot yet, so I suppose the beginning assumption would be a 50/50 split there. (PS- the mota writeup shoudl say a log jam on the left side, I think).
jca
10 Jan 26 at 1:18 pm
@JCA: Roster Resoruce’s solution? that’s laughable. Of the four, Dickerson is probably the least worthy of a promotion.
– Dickerson: Age 20 (Aug bday). 1 full year pro. SS, CF capable but played exclusively SS in 2025.. Slashline in Low-A: .208/.315/.641.
– Willits: Age 18 (Dec bday). 2 weeks pro. SS and played exclusively at SS. Slash line in Low-A: .300/.397/.757 .. as a frigging HS junior.
– Feliz: Age 19 (Nov bday). 2 full yrs pro. split time between 2b and SS in Low-A. Slashline in Low-A: .230/.307/..370. Also, he’s 6’3″
– Mota: Age 20 (June bday). 4 full years pro. Listed as SS but played exclusively 3B in Low-A. Slashline in 2025: .270/.341/.409. Also 6’3″
To me, this is pretty obvious. Mota is by far the most experienced, played the full season in Low-A, AND is now a 3B; put him in High-A. Gavin Dugas, age 25, played 3B for High-A last year and hit .181, so its notlike he’s blocked.
Then, you put Feliz at 3B in Low-A, Willits at SS, Dickerson to 2B. Easy peasy. Putting Dickerson in the OF is a waste, esp given the glut of OF/1B corner types coming up.
Todd Boss
10 Jan 26 at 5:47 pm
carrying over from the previous post’s first topic, the system overhaul in terms of coaching talent removes the mismatched methods of the previous group. without dismissing some all the old school ideas as outdated, there was an apparent failure to pivot to the new ideas. regardless of their ages, the new guys will certainly be of one general philosophy. I would not expect immediate success but it is not out of the question.
FredMD
11 Jan 26 at 10:14 am
Here’s a thought/spin on this. BA is known for getting a lot of their info from teams, which sometimes has led to ridiculous hyping of guys who just weren’t good. So . . . what if these rankings represent what Toboni & Co. think of what they’ve inherited? What if that explains some of the curious rankings?
Maybe they do think less of Sykora and have an exalted opinion of Perales. Maybe they aren’t quite as high on King. Maybe they are higher on Peterson and Pinckney than most and think they can be tweaked into being major leaguers.
If this isn’t the case, then there are some real head-scratchers for us mere mortals.
KW
11 Jan 26 at 3:37 pm
@KW – That’s an interesting conjecture, but I always thought that “getting info from teams” mostly meant getting evaluations and notes from other teams’ execs, coaches, and scouts. While no source is ever perfectly disinterested, I would think it very difficult to unwind and adjust for all the glaring conflicts of interest skewing the takes from folks who are in the player’s same org.
SMS
12 Jan 26 at 10:34 am
I wonder if Toboni & his team have even been there long enough to have talked with BA staff about their players. I mean … how would they possibly have any evaluation criteria unless they’ve spent the past month doing nothing but watching grainy minor league game footage? 🙂
Another big source just dropped that has a very fantasy-first focus, which is seen clearly in the list. I’ll write that up soon.
Todd Boss
12 Jan 26 at 12:52 pm