Nationals Arm Race

Strasburg‘s injury will change the way the Nats approach the offseason and the 2011 rotation.  Instead of having Strasburg leading the rotation, I believe this injury will result in the exploration of the FA market, the resigning of Livan Hernandez sooner than later, and the end of the “injury test cases” for Rizzo and Lerner.

Here’s what I’ve got for 2011 right now:

• Locks: Zimmermann, Marquis

• Considered: Maya, Lannan, Olsen, Detwiler, Wang

• FAs to be: Livan Hernandez

• DL for 2011: Strasburg

• Minors/relievers/Left out: Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson, Stammen

I think the rotation might be filled out exactly in the “considered” order, unless we resign Livan.  Right now I give Lannan the slight edge over Olsen and Detwiler based on past performances and pay.  I think Olsen is pitching his way off the team, and until Detwiler puts together 3 healthy starts he can’t be counted on.  I’m curious to see what Maya does during his call up and I think he’s a lock for the rotation next year.  Wang?  If he doesn’t show some progress why would we pay his freight next year?  IF we can get him in arbitration for a veteran minimum then he may be worth it.  $2M?  no way.

Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock and Martis seem to be as close to your AAA rotation next year as can be.  Martin and Chico might be done; too old, too little production at the major league level, and in the way of AA promotion candidates like Peacock, Milone and the guys we got in the Guzman trade (Roark and Tatusko).

So, what does a rotation of Zimmermann, Marquis, Livan, Maya and Lannan get you in 2011?  70 wins?  more?  less?  Do we need to look into free agency?

8/14 made five (5) starts now on the season for key off-season acquisition Jason Marquis.  That’s 5 starts, 5 times he’s given up as many earned runs as he had innings pitched, 5 times he has failed to pitch out of the fourth inning (!!) that’s 5 losses and 5 times the nats were completely out of it before they had a chance to get going.  2 years, $15M for a guy who wasn’t supposed to be an ace but was supposed to be a quality, eat-innings, pitch decently well as a #3 or #4 starters.  Certainly that’s what he’s been for years for various teams.

What has happened?  He was basically throwing meatball pitches up there against major league hitters.  No sink, no movement, just mid-to-upper 80s meatballs that were hit and hit hard.  Is it still physical?  He did have a minor surgical procedure a couple months ago.  Is it mental?  You need bravado to be successful in the major leagues and he might be short on it right now.

But, what should we do?  Do you sit him?  Put him in the bullpen?  DFA him?  Ask him to go to the minors (where he hasn’t been since 2003)? Replace him with someone else?

I know we have probably better options than Marquis right now.  Stammen pitched well in his last few starts and didn’t deserve to lose his rotation spot honestly.  Zimmermann is ready to come up; there’s only so much dominance of AAA pitchers that is needed.  Maya is a pro and only needs a few warmup starts.  Mock is on a rehab assignment.  Chico pitched well in a spot start against the Dodgers earlier this year.

However, we are committed to 2011 with the guy.  And Instead of turning $15M into a complete waste, i say let him work it out, let him take his lumps as he essentially repeats spring training in August against teams in the pennant race.  Its not as if the Nats are going anywhere.  The season is now about 75% complete, we’re in last place and we’re not getting any better.  All we’re playing for at this point is draft positioning (currently 8th!  we’re getting better, er i mean worse).

Of course, I’ll bet the Nats invent some nebulous “soft tissue” error soon on Marquis (my guess; elbow strain) that gives them an excuse to 15-day DL the guy and put someone better in the rotation.  It is the best solution honestly; he saves face and saves his ego and can write the whole season off to a tough injury.  We’ll see.

As the team starts to get some clarity in their rotation (guys coming back from injury and replacing AAAA starters), I was thinking about our 2011 rotation.

2011 rotation competition (assuming everyone is healthy).  Listing all 40-man starters.

• Locks (in order): Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis
• Heavily Considered (in order): Maya, Wang, Detwiler, Lannan, Olsen
• FAs to be: LHernandez
• Minors/Left out: Stammen, Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson

I can’t imagine us actually going with the first 5 names on this list, simply because they’re all righties.  We have several decently accomplished lefties in the mix and you would have to think at least one of them will make the cut in 2011.  The team really likes Detwiler, but Lannan has been our most effective pitcher over the past few seasons.

Some other thoughts on the names on this list.

• Wang.  If he can ever regain his form when he was winning 19 games for the Yankees, then he absolutely has to be in the conversation.  But, in reality he’s no closer to returning to the majors now in August than he was when we signed him in February.  And that’s ridiculous.
• Marquis.  What the hell is wrong with this guy?  4 runs before recording an out??  $15M absolutely flushed down the drain so far.  I was certainly a proponent of this signing but you have to wonder at this point if he’s just mentally forgotten how to pitch and compete.  But, he’s signed for next year at a high figure so he has to be part of the conversation.
• Olsen.  I can see them non-tendering him again and then subsequently seeing him signing elsewhere.  I have a feeling he’s going to get really pissed if the Nats cut his starts to save money.
• Livan.  I can see him being a post-trade deadline waiver wire trade.  No way anyone is claiming him, even given his numbers.  He’s a tough case; he doesn’t overpower people but he gets results.  He’s like the next version of Jamie Moyer.   He’s absolutely been our Ace this year but will he even get offered a contract for next year?

Convenient, to say the least, that Detwiler has just been put on the 15-day DL with a hip strain.   This now makes three underperforming Nats pitchers who have suddenly taken ill just as they were set to be replaced/demoted (Atilano, Martin and now Detwiler).  In fairness, Martin has since had back surgery and moved to the 60-day DL and obviously had a serious injury.  But Detwiler?  Seems like coincident timing.

I guess I shouldn’t be complaining, since it makes a tough decision the Nats were possibly to face a bit easier.  Marquis comes off the DL and goes today for the first time since april.

Current Rotation: Livan, Marquis, Strasburg, Olsen and Lannan.

on the DL: Mock, Martin, Detwiler and Atilano

in the minors and coming soon: Zimmermann and Maya.

I’ll guess the next thing to happen will be Olsen and Lannan making way for the Zimmermann and Maya (or perhaps Strasburg reaching an innings limit and Lannan  staying in the rotation).  Olsen gets significant bonuses right now for each additional start (to the tune of $250k for his next couple starts, then $100k there after for the rest of the season).  Not that I think the Nats are cheap, but i’m sure they’ll find some justification for limiting his starts and their payroll outlay.

As it stands, they’re getting closer to the 2011 rotation they’d probably like to see out on the field (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and Lannan).  And we all think this would be a pretty good rotation.  Spring training 2011 can’t come soon enough!

Zuckerman has a good article about the conundrum the nats are about to face with respect to all the starting pitchers they have coming back or soon-to-be ready to pitch in the Majors.

Current rotation: Livan, Detwiler, Stammen, Olsen, Lannan.  In roughly that order of performance.

– Strasburg is coming back from the DL next tuesday and probably sends Stammen back to the minors for the rest of the year, possibly forever.  Stammen is just to inconsistent to depend on.  He’ll go 3 straight fantastic games then blow up.

– Marquis is soon to be off the rehab assignment (he’s now got 5 minor league starts and you only get 30 days of rehab before having to be recalled or optioned).  I don’t know who gives way for him; perhaps Olsen since Olsen has been optioned already this year and hasn’t exactly lit it up since his return from injury.

– Zimmermann has been removed from the 60-day and has been optioned to AAA; he probably gets 3-4 more starts down there and replaces Strasburg when the phenom either gets his next DL stint or reaches his innings limit.

– Maya (our new Cuban signing) just got assigned to the gulf coast league, but he wasn’t signed to a $6M contract and placed on the 40-man to pitch in the minors.  This team needs to know how he’ll pitch next year.

– Wang has yet to even start throwing by all accounts and is looking more and more like a waste of money.  Too bad.

– Livan could be a post-waiver wire trade candidate to a contender needing a rubber-armed 5th starter.  We’ve done it before (netting Chico and Mock from Arizona in 2006) but that would be cold hearted for a guy who has saved the Nats season in terms of starting pitching.  But, we could always sign him again in the off season and his removal would pave the way for a slot for one of the above.

– Other SPs on the 40-man: Atilano (dl), Martin (dl), Mock (dl), Chico (27 and seemingly stuck in AAA), Martis (23 but having a mediocre AAA season) and Thompson (young but absolutely sucking in AA) all seem to be non-factors now and going forward. In fact I’d be surprised to see half these guys in the organization next year as we promote a bunch of slightly-older AA pitchers upwards (including the two starters we got from Texas for Guzman).

You can never have enough starting pitching.

Prediction/hope for 2011 rotation: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and then whoever wins from Detwiler Olsen and Lannan in spring training next eyar).

boss