Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Three take the QO; but some still rolling the dice


Rasmus breaks the MLBPA's omerta on the QO. Photo via the Houston Chronicle.

Rasmus breaks the MLBPA’s omerta on the QO. Photo via the Houston Chronicle.

Old news now, but for the first time ever players have taken a Qualifying Offer (QO).  In fact, three took it.

3 accepting:

In addition, a 4th player signed an extension before being forced to make a decision

  • Marco Estrada: who gets a massive pay raise to stay where he is and not have his FA market completely shredded.

In my QO preview post, I thought that 5 guys would have been crazy not to take the QO.  Two of those such players are listed above (Rasmus and Estrada).  The other two (Anderson and Wieters) were slight surprises but make sense in hind sight.

As expected, both Nats candidates rejected the deal but neither should have their market affected too much.

As for the rest of the players, I think the player who is making the biggest mistake is Ian Kennedy.  Perhaps he’s been thinking of re-signing with San Diego all along, but of all the players out there with QO compensation attached to them, he’s the guy that seems most likely to be sitting around until after the next amateur draft in June 2016.

Two other interesting QO links:

  • Current QO/compensation pick affect on the draft: before teams start signing players and losing picks, the Nats are slated to pick 18th in the 1st, then get the 37th and 38th comp picks.  Now, could we see the Nats signing a QO-attached free agent and punting on the first rounder given that they have two supp-1sts?  I could, yes.  But we’ll see what happens.  Frankly, having 3 1st rounders could be a nice way to re-stock the system with college junior guys who could be ready for the majors right around the time that Bryce Harper elects free agency.
  • analysis: the venerable 538 site has a good piece on the QO here.

Lastly, I’ve updated my Qualifying Offer Worksheet online at Google.  It is color coded per situation and has old and new contract details for the candidates to see how the QO has affected them.  Enjoy!

Post-publishing update: a few more interesting Qualifying Offer-related posts:

Written by Todd Boss

November 18th, 2015 at 3:23 pm

6 Responses to 'Three take the QO; but some still rolling the dice'

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  1. It’s too bad that the Lerners are still doing what Scott Boras tells them to, as we would have another 1st rounder from Span.

    I wonder if he’s fitted them with that nose ring yet.
    Easier to lead them around.

    Mark L

    18 Nov 15 at 5:15 pm

  2. Let’s just see who signs Span and for how much.

    With all due apologies for threadjacking, the Nats are now at 35 on the 40 man roster. That speaks to free agent signings and trades, yes. But with deadlines for setting the roster coming, Todd, perhaps we could have a separate Rule 5 -add thread.

    Not very glamorous this year, but I’ll weigh in and say Kieboom (has too many skills – my first and perhaps only choice), but also Skole (getting close and has upgrade his defense and has the power and eye and left handed bat), and yes, Bryan Harper (every reason for Bryce to stay in DC counts).


    18 Nov 15 at 6:17 pm

  3. Rule-5 analysis; yeah its due. I think the deadline to add is 11/20/15. Rule 5 draft is set for 12/10/15.

    Todd Boss

    18 Nov 15 at 8:59 pm

  4. Anderson, who will get paid above his pay grade this year while waiting, is probably banking on being higher in the FA arms pecking order next offseason, when it’s Stras and essentially no one else. I’ve been saying this for a long time, but Svrluga spelled it out nicely in a good piece a few days ago:

    Meanwhile on the FA market, considering the buzz around Zobrist and O’Day, I would expect them to be signing soon, deals that will start shaping the rest of the offseason for many teams, including the Nats.


    19 Nov 15 at 7:41 am

  5. The FA reliever market appears very frothy, and I think maybe Rizzo takes a pass, and looks for help in the trade market. There was speculation over on TalkNats that the Nats are engaged with Tampa for another three way trade. No names speculated, but you’d think reliever like Boxberger, or more likely McGee. Maybe Jennings?

    But really, given the reliever market, instead of a trade candidate, Storen makes sense to approach for a 2-3 year deal, maybe 3/$15m? It won’t fly for a variety of reasons, but he is young, good stuff and hasn’t made enough money that $15m guaranteed won’t make him think hard.


    19 Nov 15 at 8:29 am

  6. new-posted on Rule-5 analysis. Lots of names to think about.

    Todd Boss

    19 Nov 15 at 10:55 am

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