Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

LCS Pitching Match-ups and predictions


Quick look at projected SP match-ups for the LCS and predictions:

Here’s the broadcast schedule with probables listed where known: .  I’m assuming the Game 5-7 match-ups would be the same as 1-4


  • Game 1: NYY@Houston: Tanaka vs Keuchel. Both guys were solid in their ALDS appearances, may be a run prevention effort.
  • Game 2: NYY@Houston: Severino vs Verlander: Verlander has been great since moving over, but Severino was no slouch in his ALDS start.
  • Game 3: Houston@NYY: Peacock vs Sabathia: Sabathia’s career renaissance continues; he was dominant in the ALDS.  Peacock is an enigma; advantage NYY here.
  • Game 4: Houston@NYY: Morton vs Gray: you’d have to say advantage NYY here; Morton struggled, as did Gray, but Gray’s ceiling is higher.

I like Houston in 6 here.  I think they win first two games at home, get one game in NYY then win game 6 behind Verlander.


  • Game 1: Chicago@LA: Quintana vs Kershaw: Kershaw should dominate … of course his post-season stats are awful, but Lackey is Chicago’s 5th starter for a reason.
  • Game 2: Chicago@LA: Lester vs Hill: tough match-up of lefties; if Chicago were to steal a game, it’d happen here.  But Hill puts several big Chicago bats into neutral, and if he’s on he’s nearly unhittable.
  • Game 3: LA@Chicago: Hendricks vs Darvish: I don’t see Hendricks taming the Chicago bats, fired up for their first home games of the NLCS.
  • Game 4: LA@Chicago: Arrieta vs Wood: Is Arrieta healthy?  who knows.  I think LA gets to him and steals this game.

The Cubs had to empty the bullpen to get through the NLDS.  And i’m not entirely sure Wood is the LA 4th starter; it could be Kenta Maeda, who threw two relief innings in the NLDS.   I also like LA in 6 here, maybe even 5.  I could see LA winning both LA games, then dropping game 3, getting to Arrieta in game 4 and then having Kershaw shut them down in game 5.  And as we saw in the Washington series … the Chicago bullpen getting from the starter to the closer is … suspect.

Predictions: Houston in 6, LA in 5.

3 Responses to 'LCS Pitching Match-ups and predictions'

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  1. Houston already up 2-0. That one looks over. The Yanks A) have to have HR barrages, and B) get to the bullpen with a lead. They haven’t shown the ability to do either.

    I’m guessing the Cubs gave their last full measure to get by the Nats. That has to be a worn-out team, Wade Davis in particular. The Dodgers haven’t been nearly as vulnerable against lefties this season as they were last year. The Dodgers will be without Seager, but unless the Cubs can steal game 2 behind Lester, this one could be short. No guarantees, though. Kershaw’s postseason ERA is 4.63. The Dodgers have lost all five playoff series in which Kershaw has been charged with a loss. They have a lot riding on his every appearance.

    I’m thinking HOU and LA will both win in less than the max, just five or six games.


    14 Oct 17 at 9:04 pm

  2. Joe the Genius blows the game he needed to steal the series without using his closer. Makes me wonder how much Wade Davis is still hurting after being overextended on Thursday.


    16 Oct 17 at 12:32 pm

  3. yeah … i think Davis is hurting. no othe rreason not to have him in there. Especially vs Lackey.

    Todd Boss

    16 Oct 17 at 12:34 pm

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