LIle gets a career high prospect ranking here. PHoto via District on deck
We seem to have saved the weirdest list for last. While all other pundits release their “pre-season” prospect lists before the actual season starts, Fangraphs and Eric Longenhagen waited until nearly the All Star break to release their list, the 29th of the 30 lists to get published (only Houston remains).
So, what does this list represent? Does it represent the state of our prospects before the season started and before we saw leaps forward from the likes of Lord, or Henry, or Sykora? Or, does it represent where these players sat in terms of reputation before a pitch was thrown? Honestly, its hard to gauge, based on this list, since on the one hand it still has Crews at #1, but on the other it clearly takes into account 2025 performance in some cases already (for example, having Dickerson at #6 when he ranked him #27 at the same time last year or ranking Henry in the top 10).
So, I’m not sure how to critique this list honestly.
Here’s the top 39:
Rank
Last Name
First Name
Position
1
Dylan
Crews
OF (CF)
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
3
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
Brady
House
SS/3B
5
Daylen
Lile
OF (CF)
6
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
7
Seaver
King
SS
8
Cade
Cavalli
RHP (Starter)
9
Jake
Bennett
LHP (Starter)
10
Cole
Henry
RHP (Starter)
11
Caleb
Lomavita
C
12
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
13
Daniel
Hernandez
C
14
Yoel
Tejada Jr.
RHP (Starter)
15
Victor
Hurtado
OF
16
Cristian
Vaquero
OF (CF)
17
Robert
Hassell III
OF (CF)
18
Kevin
Bazzell
C/3B
19
Andry
Lara
RHP (Starter)
20
Tyler
Stuart
RHP (Starter)
21
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
22
Dashyll
Tejeda
OF (CF)
23
Marconi
German
SS
24
Zach
Brzykcy
RHP (Reliever)
25
Orlando
Ribalta
RHP (reliever)
26
Jackson
Rutledge
RHP (Starter)
27
Kevin
Made
SS
28
Sir Jamison
Jones
CA
29
Angel
Feliz
3B/SS
30
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
31
Brad
Lord
RHP (Starter)
32
Darren
Baker
2B
33
Marquis
Grissom
RHP (Reliever)
34
Yohandy
Morales
3B
35
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
36
Cornelio
Riley
RHP (Starter)
37
Erick
Mejia
RHP
38
Jose
Feliz
RHP (Starter)
39
Carlos
Tavares
OF
Here’s some thoughts.
Crews still at 1-1, despite exhausting any semblance of rookie eligibility about a week into the 2025 season.
2-3-4 as expected. Susana not dinged for the “TJ-sounding” injury he seems to have, which would probably impact his lofty ranking otherwise and, based on the wholesale dumping of other prospects who got hurt, doesn’t seem to make any sense.
Dickerson at #6, as he should now and going forward. Which .. ok did they take into account his hot start or was this pre-season ranking? Last year, Dickerson was #27 on this list. So there’s your answer.
Cole Henry all the way up to #10. Clearly this takes into account his sudden ability to get MLB batters out in the bullpen. Last year: not ranked, meaning he was in the upper 30s at best.
Clemmey is “only” at #12, which I find kind of ridiculous. I mean, what more do you want the kid to do? He literally just turned 20, has put up two straight months of sub 2.00 ERA, and seems likely to get promoted to AA before the season is out. And he’s behind a pitcher in Bennett who’s four years older and who can’t seem to throw more than 3 innings at a time right now?
Daniel Hernandez at #13 is super bullish. And now is as good of a time as any to point out the “flaws” in the Fangraphs FV system and how it ranks prospects. Longenhagen’s system basically values ceiling with a significant downgrading of the floor. So, you see a guy like Hernandez, who just turned 17 and who is currently slashing .208/.269/.264 as a catcher in the DSL (he’s caught about half the games, DH’d the other half) ranked nearly in the top 10 but players like Andrew Alvarez and Andrew Pinckney, who are in AAA right now producing, are not even in his top 39. Hernandez at #13 is asinine. Putting him inside the top 20 is nearly as dumb. I had him #37 before the season started, and he’s likely falling 20-30 spots the next time I do the ranks.
Vaquero at #16. What exactly has this guy done to have him ranked that high at this point in his career, besides get a $4.9M bonus?
Hassell dumped down to #17 in a season where he forced a promotion to the majors and where he’s got a 1.000 OPS in AAA … one spot ahead of Bazzell at #18, who’s hitting like .150 in A-ball. Make it make sense.
A first time mention for one German Marconi. A 2025 IFA signing for a reasonable $400k in January, he’s got a pretty impressive slash line right now in DSL: .269/.491/.513 for an OPS north of 1.000. He’s got 24 walks and 17 strikeouts; that’s unheard of. This is the first time I’ve seen him on any prospect lists, and clearly he’s one to watch.
Longenhagen’s system also overrates relievers. Except … when it doesn’t. Ok quick quiz: which reliever who’s made it to the major leagues this year do you think is higher rated? Ribalta, Brzycky, Rutledge, or Lord? If you guessed Lord, who has a 111 ERA+ in 33 appearances … you’d be wrong! Lord is ranked 4th out of these four. I guess in his system actual performance on the field doesn’t actually count.
Made comes in at #27, which was about right for pre-season, but which may be low now given his offensive explosion so far this year.
Ok, so Hernandez is ranked #13 right? And he’s hitting at the Mendoza line. Meanwhile, Brayan Cortesia, who got 5x the bonus dollars in January at $1.9M … is currently slashing .477/.558/.523 in the DSL … and he’s ranked 30th while Hernandez is 13th?? Really?
Morales at #34. Wow. I mean, just wow. Of course, Fangraphs doesn’t rate Morales at all; last year they had him at #19. I mean, what’s the guy gotta do? Get to AAA at age 23 despite injuries and then hold your own there? That’s gotta be worth something right?
Erick Frigging Mejia at #37. OK this is just trolling us right?
OK, so there’s a lot of problems in this list. But here’s some of the names not even in the top 40:
Cayden Wallace, mostly a top 10 player on other lists; outside the top 40? Only if you think this season has completely erased all his past seasons and scouting reports.
Andrew Pinckney, as noted; nowhere to be seen despite being in AAA
Andrew Alvarez, because being a serviceable AAA starter is meaningless.
Elijah Green; ok well I can understand this based on his performance … but he’s still all tooled up right?
No Armando Cruz? Lots of love for big bonus low-performers like Hurtado and Vaquero but not Cruz? Makes no sense.
Phew. It took them until July to release this list. Maybe they should just go with what they had in March; couldn’t be much worse.
Clemmey may be pushing for a promotion soon. Photo via WP
Here’s the three month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All seasonal stats as of 7/1/25, though the whole point of this article is to see how these players are doing in the last month. I’m a little late posting this … since we’ve had a ton of “news” happen, so I havn’t updated this post for anything that’s happened in the last nine days (like, for example, Cavalli getting shelled last night).
#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May with oblique issue. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice.
#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): Just promoted to AA, his 2nd promotion in as many months. He’s our #1 prospect on all lists right now and it will be super interesting to see how he fares in AA. Temperature: red hot.
#3 Brady House SS/3B: Promoted to MLB, has basically been the starter at 3B. Slashed just .231/.268/.288 for the month of June. Not great. Not much power shown so far. Paul deJong just came off the DL (though his slash line is even worse) so I wonder what the team will do here. Temperature: Hot for making majors, not hot for his MLB performance so far.
#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Zero news on his grade 1 UCL sprain; zero June activity.. Temperature: on ice.
# 5 Seaver King SS. took a big step back in June: .218/.259/.307. Is it possible he’s just too high in his first pro season? Maybe they should have left him in Wilmington (even if its an awful hitter’s park). Temperature: getting colder.
# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: has not taken to AAA pitching so far, slashing just .207/.289.331 in Rochester so far. Temperature: Warm for getting to AA at age 23, code so far in the league.
#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: was awful in June: .169/.218/.211 for the month. Weren’t there some who thought this was a better 3B prospect than House this past off-season? Phew. Temperature: ice cold.
# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): Five starts in AAA after finally returning from nearly 2 years out for TJ, and he’s not really impressing. Interestingly though Fangraphs just did a piece on him. He talks a ton about changes he’s making to his approach, introduction of new pitches, working on a 2-seamer, mixing up speeds, etc. I think his up and down results in AAA so far can be explained a bit, and I’m a bit less worried than others. If you’re in the anti-Cavalli camp right now, give this article a read and see if it changes your mind. Temperature: Warming up.
#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): His June was just as good as his May; 1.45 ERA, .197 BAA against. He’s already due for another promotion, and I wonder if he’s starting to put his name into consideration for some top-100 lists as a 19yr old dominating in High-A. Temperature: getting hot.
# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Got 21 games in the Majors when we had some OF issues, but struggled (.218/.228/269) and is now back in AAA. He continues to be a healthy hitter in AAA (OPS north of 1.000 in June), and hopefully gets another shot at the Majors soon. Temperature: hot for getting there, cold in MLB.
#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid June: .295/.371/.346. Love the OBP, wish for more power. He’s only 5′ 10″ so maybe a gap contact hitter is his ceiling. Temperature: Staying Warm.
# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: It was great to see Dickerson quickly hit his way out of the complex league, but his time in Low-A so far has been a struggle. He’s slashing just .223/.327/.338 so far in F’burg. So, pump the brakes a bit. Also, remember that if he were playing by the D1 rules, he’d be taking his freshman summer in some random wood-bat league near his home in Jersey. Temperature: luke warm.
# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): did a bunch of rehab starts in A-ball, then was optioned to AA instead of AAA (odd for a 40-man roster who pretty much proved he had solved AA last year) and promptly got shelled in his first game back. He’s now got a 10 ERA in AAA this year and a 20 ERA in AA. Is he still hurt? Temperature: very cold.
#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): his first month back in AA post injury did not go well: 5 games, 6 ERA, and now he’s back on the DL as of this writing. Harrisburg now has nearly an entire rotation on its DL (Susana, Stuart, Knowles, Atencio). Temperature: chilly.
#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): his slash line in the majors so far (.221/.274/.338) hasn’t been great, but he’s the one they’ve kept up for now instead of the likes of Hassell, Yepez, Chapparo, Tena, etc. He’s getting playing time too, often at the expense of Young or Call oddly. Temperature: hot for getting there, cool in MLB
#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: continues to disappoint. .213/.367/.234 in June. He’s got zero power and isn’t hitting well enough to maintain his spot. Temperature: ice cold.
#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett continues to be brought back slowly, doing just 3IP in each of his starts. So far he’s been nearly unhittable and efficient in these starts. Hoping to see him stretch out and get to AA by year’s end. Temperature: getting warmer.
#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): fun fact: as of this writing Lord is 4th on the damn team in bWAR for the season. 3.28 ERA in 30 appearances/57 IP as of this writing. 18th round draft pick. What a win for the player dev and for the draft team. Temperature: Red Hot all around.
#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: cooled from his hot start, hitting just .238 in May. Still a win for getting to FCL after just one year in DSL. Temperature: cooled off
#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): struggling in AAA: .203/.329/.344 for June. Still getting starts in AAA, which is something positive for the 24yr old, but not doing much with it so far. Temperature: cold
Notables #20 and above by the Level they mostly played in in June 2025.
In MLB:
#35 Jackson Rutledge gave up 10 runs in 10 June MLB innings; that’s not going to cut it.
#36 Cole Henry continues to hold his own in the MLB pen; his FIP flatters his ERA but he’s got a positive bWAR and that’s awesome for someone I was afraid was going to be out of baseball.
in AAA:
#32 Darren Baker had a solid June in AAA: .317/.427/.400. If we manage to flip any of our MLB utility infielders Baker should get another shot.
#38 Drew Millas hit well in AAA in June .286/.357/.469, which helped him get the call-up to the majors. This positive mention of Millas won’t
Both our 1B/DH “prospects” Yepez and Chapparo are now back in AAA; #31 Chapparo probably losing out in a numbers game for now, but Yepez was DFA’d and outrighted in what probably is a dagger for his time with Washington.
#41 Marquis Grissom Jr bounced back after a tough month after getting promoted; he’s in the Futures Game but probably not on merit.
In AA:
#47 Phillip Glasser SS bounced back after a great April and an awful May with this June slash line: .329/.426/.482. Why hasn’t he moved up? Nowhere to play him: he’s played basically 2B and LF this year: AAA has too many 2B already (Baker, Lipscomb, Arruda) and too many guys who are limited to a corner OF/DH spot (Baker, Schnell, Yepez/Chapparo).
#25 Kevin Made: wow; he’s alive. And crushing AA pitching: .352/.410/.444 in June. Phew. Not bad for a glove-first prospect. Why not move him up? Because Nasim Nunez is clogging the AAA SS position with his Mendoza line batting average. I dunno; maybe its time to cut bait here.
In High-A:
#39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June: .286/.370/.400.
#88 Miguel Gomez cruised for the month in the closer role with a sub 1.00 ERA.
In Low-A:
#90 Yoander Rivero was the teams’ best hitter in June … and just hit the DL.
#96 Pablo Aldonis is making a name for himself in the bullpen.
#42 Robert Cranz dominated again in June and just earned a promotion.
In FCL:
#23 Elijah Green officially was sent to the FCL, hopefully to re-work everything. So far? .229/.386/.286. 13/9 K/BB in 12 games. Ok, so that’s an improvement. Interesting that he’s taking so many walks all of a sudden; is that wild pitching or is that him showing plate discipline as part of his reworking? The team has so much invested in him, it’ll be interesting to see what they come up with.
#44 Jose Feliz, continues to remain one of the best starters in FCL.
#45 Dashyll Tejeda, remains hot: .315/.351/.407 in June after similar numbers in May. Great to see.
#72 Sir Jamison Jones: improved greatly this month; .308/.440/.615. Wow. Love those numbers. Another month and he’s gonna have to move up just like Dickerson did.
In the DSL, here’s how the first month went for the six DSL guys i’ve got on my top 100 list. These are all position players, ironic in that the strength of our DSL team right now seems to be its rotation.
#22 Victor Hurtado, our big-money 2024 guy, not impressing yet again in 2025. .259/.429/.296. He’s listed as a corner OF; need to see more power here.
#29 Brayan Cortesia has wasted no time making his introduction post signing in January: June: .440/.481/.520. He’s 11 for 25 with some doubles, so SSS but a solid start.
#37 Daniel Hernandez, who’s starting to get some prospect love in other shops, struggling to start hitting just .213 for the month. Listed as a C when signing but a DH so far for DSL.
#66: Rony Bello: .801 OPS to start the season.
#70 Hector Liriano: hitting .152 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
#103 Juan Obispo is hitting .313 in very limited action so far.
Will Rizzo’s firing tilt the scale towards Holliday? Photo via USA today
There’s no more games to play, no more box scores to hyper analyze. All we have now is a series of scouting/draft pundits calling sources and writing prediction pieces.
I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below
Here’s a roundup of draft content I found interesting since the last time we posted, which was right after the CWS ended and we got our last look at potential 1-1 candidate Kade Anderson.
D1Baseball.com released their 1st, 2nd, 3rd team All-American lists. The 1st team is littered with upper-1st round names we’ve talked about all spring (Anderson, Doyle, Bodine, etc). top 5 pick Arnold didn’t make the 1st team cut, even though he might get drafted ahead of some who did. James Quinn-Irons from George Mason by way of South Lakes HS in Reston was named as a first teamer after slashing .415/.520/.726 for the season; bravo.
An interesting article in the Athletic on 6/27/25 by Sam Blum about the “fundamental problem” the MLB Draft Combine has, specifically that many of the top players have no incentive to show up. Blum reports from the combine that there’s almost zero scouts there despite hundreds of players doing drills and bp/pitching drills made for scouting opportunities. Why is this? Teams are almost entirely interested in exactly one thing here: MRIs of pitchers. Agents (Scott Boras the leading critic of course) point out that, while teams get MRIs they don’t get analysis, and they fear teams will misinterpret things and suddenly players drop out of the top 10 and out of guaranteed dollars. Fair points all.
Along with the release of their latest updated Top 250 board, MLBPipeline lists the “best Tools” in the draft. I found the analysis interesting for one reason: while each of the guys who were given “Best Pitch” by pitch type are names we know, Kade Anderson not only didn’t win one of the “best of” titles … he wasn’t even listed amongst those considered for ANY of the categories. Yet he’s the top ranked arm on the board. Meanwhile, they give “best power” to Holliday, over the all-or-nothing LaViolette even and despite him being a prep kid who probably doesn’t completely fill out for years. Something to think about.
MLBpipeline’s latest mock from Jonathan Mayo came along with all the 6/27/25 content (updated board, top tools, latest Mock). He goes Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. This, by the way, is the exact top 5 I’ve been predicting in the case where Anderson goes 1-1 instead of Holliday.
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel and staff) posted their 6/30/25 mock, which had a slight twist in that they allowed for trading picks AND the pundits pick who they think the teams SHOULD be picking, not who they likely well pick. It’s a subtle but important distinction that led to a slightly different mock look. They went Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, JoJo Parker.
Baseball America’s v5.0 Mock Draft was released on 6/30/25 with info gleaned from the combine and the end of the college season. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
MLBPipeline’s 7/1/25 email newsletter (free to subscribe to) had a quick “What if Teams drafted for need” mock, and it looked slightly different than the rest of these mocks: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Doyle. Arquette drops way down this list.
Baseball Prospect Journal did a staff mock on 7/3/25. I’m still up in the air about this source and its value; is it just a couple of baseball nerds like me, or do they actually have insight? they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits, Arnold. They have Doyle dropping to 8th.
Obviously, the 7/6/25 news that the Nats have fired Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez looms quite large over the draft preparations the team was making.
Baseball America held a podcast on 7/7/25 where they did reaction to Rizzo’s firing and its potential impact on the draft. They did mention one interesting tidbit; they said that Rizzo was more old-school than his scouting director and scouting staff, most of whom he hired away from more system-driven teams like Arizona and Baltimore. These guys are going to favor younger and toolsier players than Rizzo might, and it may tip the scale towards Holliday at 1-1.
Keith Law posted his Mock 3.0 just as I was publishing this post. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, and Willits. This is almost exactly who i’ve got if we go Anderson 1-1.
My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Holliday
If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:
Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.
If we pick Anderson, I think the top 5 goes like this:
Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold
I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:
Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with Arnold, since it seems clear that Anderson and Arquette will be gone in any scenario. They (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits. If Arnold doesn’t go here, there’s a strong likelihood he drops nearly out of the top 10.
Rizzo out after more than 16 years on the job. Photo via MLB
I just happened to have the MLB network on yesterday when shocking news broke: the Nats have fired both Manager Davey Martinez and long-time General Manager Mike Rizzo by way of a typical say-nothing milquetoast “ownership announcement” from the Lerner family citing the “need for a fresh approach.”
This is the same non-speak you hear when someone who’s been fired from their job says they “need to spend more time with their family.”
The main reason the timing was their contract options; both had 2026 options due this month. If the team wanted to go in a different direction, they had to be picked up by month’s end. Perhaps the simplest answer is this: Lerner’s already knew they wanted to go in a different direction this coming off-season and decided to cut bait now instead of on July 31st and have themselves two lame duck executives for the rest of the season. However, there’s a lot more to it, at least for Rizzo’s firing.
The timing of canning Rizzo is somewhat ridiculous. The team is in the middle of draft prep, a draft where they hold the #1 overall pick and have $16.5M to dole out. Not only that, but right after the draft, its trade season, where the GM has to wheel and deal to find the best moves for a failing team. Firing Rizzo this week is a complete indictment of the ownership group’s decision making, who, if they really truly believe Mike Rizzo is the reason this team is in last place and not themselves for holding back payroll, then they’re even more delusional than we thought. I can only think there’s more to this story w/r/t canning Rizzo today. GMs generally have a massive say in the top 2-3 picks of each draft, since they’re the most money and the highest-leverage negotiations, but then the Scouting Director mostly dictates the rest of the picks. So, whacking the GM now is still “bad,” but not quite as bad for the rest of the draft.
The larger issue considering Rizzo’s tenure here is a lot more understandable. We’ve discussed the relative failure of the Rizzo regime w/r/t both player development and drafting more and more lately. Rizzo has pretty much failed at picking an impact player in the 1st or 2nd round for a decade straight at this point, and the system’s overall failure to develop impact players has extended that entire time. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal crushed Rizzo and the team in late May for this same point: quoting that article, “… since 2013, the Nationals have drafted and developed only three players with career bWARs above 5.0. Those three — Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde, Jesús Luzardo — made their marks with other teams.” That’s so bad as to be laughable. We’ve lived through years of failed 1st rounders and an even worse track record on 2nd rounders. Seth Romero may have been the nadir of Rizzo’s draft strategy, picking a known headcase AND paying him an above slot bonus was a move that the entire baseball industry predicted ahead of time how it would work out, correctly.
It’s fair to criticize Rizzo and his staff for this. But that’s not the entire reason the team is in last place, again. They’re spending a fraction of what it takes to compete in the NL east in 2025. If the Lerner’s actually, truly believe a $113M payroll should be in playoff contention this year, then they’re even more delusional than we thought.
—
For Martinez, the writing may have been on the wall for a few weeks now after his ill-thought press conference throwing his players under the bus for performance. MLB Managers don’t have long careers anymore primarily for one reason: MLB players who earn multiple times the salary of the manager can only take so much “leadership” before they tune him out. Martinez is known as a “player’s manager,” meaning he takes a softer approach, an approach where he relies on his prior on-field experiences to say to players, “dude I used to play too, listen to my advice.” Player managers are the best … until they’re not. Then suddenly a losing team takes advantage, doesn’t heed advice, and suddenly you need to swing the pendulum far to the other side of Manager types and get yourself a “Task master.” If you look back at the recent history of our managers you can kind of see this swinging back and forth:
Martinez: Player manager
preceded by Dusty Baker, also a player manager but an old school cross over one
preceded by Matt Williams, a task master
preceded by Davey Johnson, definitely a player’s manager
preceded by Jim Riggleman, a task master
preceded by Manny Acta, a player’s manager
preceded by Frank Robinson, absolutely an old school task master
preceded by Felipe Alou, absolutely a player’s manager.
Anyway, you get the point. Prepare for this team to install some old-school A-hole who whips the team into shape.
Unfortunately, the Nats made the wrong kind of news over the weekend, looking again like the inept, bumbling organization they have been long-considered in baseball circles. Let’s hope it doesn’t result in some ridiculous decision making at the 2025 draft.
We’re now three months into the 2025 full seasons, so here’s my rotations/pitching staff deep-dives for the month. We’re starting to really see some trends that we can actually believe … even though many adhere to the “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” camp.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
Changes sinceend of last Month: none: we’re at our opening day rotation for the entire month and have shown pretty remarkable consistency in the rotation so far this year for a last place team.
Rotation Observations: We started June with a 28-31 record, and we’re ending June with a 35-49 record. That’s not great, Bob. The team went just 7-19 after a 15-12 May that had fans maybe, possibly thinking we’ve turned the corner. The pitching staff didn’t help. Gore continues to pitch like an Ace and may be pushing towards an All Star appearance. Soroka’s return from the DL resulted in a very solid 3.50 ERA month as he builds trade-value. Irvin’s June was forgettable: 7.00 ERA and 1.65 whip in five starts. Amazingly he won one of them. Parker improved from last month but is still pitching like a 4-A starter in general. And then there’s Williams, who at least has been consistent: here’s his month to month ERAs: 5.70 in April, 5.68 in May, and 5.55 in June. With little run support he’s now turning into an automatic out every fifth turn, and is making his off-season contract extension looking worse by the week.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Williams … though there’s not exactly a clamoring for a rotation spot coming up from AAA right now, so everyone’s safe.
Bullpen comments: With a 7-19 month we’re now entrenched in last place and may soon pivot to the “who can we trade” analysis. Finnegan remains one of our leading trade pieces (as he was last year before one bad game scuttled his trade value). Lord and Henry should be untouchable based on player control and performance. New acquisition Chafin has been solid but is hurt. The rest of the pen is a mess of 6-ERA rookies and veterans that aren’t helping this team hold on to leads. Unfortunately there’s not a ton of help coming from AAA since we’ve already done a purge.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
Changes since end of last month: None until the last day of the month, when Sampson hit the DL and will be replaced by Ogasawara for July, which I’m totally OK with since Ogasawara is on the 40-man and presumably could provide future help, whereas Sampson is a 30-something MLFA innings eater.
Rotation Observations: Cavalli was officially taken off the MLB DL and optioned to AAA, and in five June starts he posted a middling 5.64 ERA/1.52 whip effort. 18/12 KBB in 22 innings. That’s not enough Ks and too many BBs to make a push upwards. In the comments a few weeks ago there was a discussion on how long Cavalli would have to be “kept down” in order to get an other year of service time … well there’s certainly no urgency right now, and concerns are starting to creep into play here for sure. As for the rest of the rotation: Alvarez and Solesky put up nice months but both seem to have the same problem: they’re good enough to get by in AAA but seemingly not pushing for a promotion. As for the rest: 33yr old MLFA Sampson was ok in a few starts (but doesn’t have any swing and miss) but hit the DL recently. Lastly Seth Shuman basically pitched BP all month with an 8+ ERA and giving up 10 homers in 5 games.
Next guy to get Promoted: none. If I had to promote someone to make a spot start in the MLB it probably would be Pilkington.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Shuman. He may have reached the end of the line. He’ll be a 6yr MLFA and has been in our system since 2019 and I just don’t know what else they can do here. There’s several AA arms who really should be in AAA and it seems like its just a matter of time before Shuman gets the axe.
Bullpen comments: Pilkington’s proven to be a multi-use guy and had a sub 1.00 ERA in June. Also, dare I say it but former 40-man hurler Joan Adon had 22 Ks in just 13IP in June in a middle relief role; do we roll the dice with him again in the majors? Marquis Grissom Jr. has settled down since his promotion and may be putting his name into consideration soon. Long-time farmhand Peterson got cut soon after his promotion to AAA: his AAA stat-line: 3 games, 1 total Inning pitched: 13 hits and 14 runs allowed. Phew. Weigel wasn’t much better, giving up 18 runs in 7 June innings; kind of curious why he’s still around.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
Changes since end of last month: Saenz demoted to the bullpen officially, replaced with Stuart. Then at month’s end the AA rotation has two new names who have to fit in somehow in Lara and Sykora.
Rotation Observations: Not one peep about Susana’s UCL issue; hit the DL 5/10/25, now we’re at 6/30. Here’s how I expect this to go: Susana “rehabs” for months in Florida, gets a start at the end of the season, lasts 2 innings, leave the game with diminished velocity, and the team announces TJ surgery the next day. Seen it a thousand times.
Lara finished rehab and was demoted to AA, but his first start back was awful. Then, top prospect Sykora was promoted to make his first start at month’s end, which looked bad on paper but which seemed to be more like death from a thousand paper cuts. Heading into July we seem to have 7 names for 5 spots but no real obvious choices as to who makes way. Luckham had a middling month but has proven he’s solved AA at various points. Conley had a very solid month in the rotation … and is a 30yr old in AA for the 4th season. Not sure what we’re proving here. The best arm this month was Cornelio, with a 1.96 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip, but he hasn’t appeared in nearly two weeks for some reason.
Next guy to get Promoted: I’d promote Conley ASAP to see if he can hang in AAA; if he can great, if he can’t then he’ll have proven that fact three years running and I’d cut ties. Luckham has nothing else to prove in AA and needs to get moved up at this point. After that, if Cornelio puts up another month like this i’d move him up too: at 25 no better time than the present.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: They already moved Saenz out of the rotation. What is Choi giving us right now? Minor league Rule5 guy with a 5+ ERA repeating AA? In a pinch I’d dump him.
Bullpen comments: Davila and Acosta both had solid months: Acosta should since he was in AAA to start. The AA bullpen now has 5 guys promoted just this season, so they need a bit of time to settle. Mejia’s conversion to relief isn’t going well, with more BB than K. Junior Santos has been unstoppable as the closer and as a 23yr old MLFA might be worthy of moving up soon.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
Changes since end of last month: Sykora (finally) promoted to where he probably should have been a month ago. In four High-A starts Sykora had a 1.66 ERA, a 0.74 whip and 32/6 K/BB in 21ip.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey continues to be solid: 1.45 ERA for the month. Bennett is being eased back into things and hasn’t given up a run in 3 small starts. Sunday Sthele is Steady Eddy; 3.60 ERA in four starts, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. Kent took a big step back this month, with four starts in the 6 ERA range. I can’t ding him too much, since he’s starting in the High-A rotation as a 22yr old pro. Tolman got one spot start and added that to a nice month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Bennett; once he’s stretched out he just has to go to AA. At 24 he’s lost so much time already. After that, Clemmey is making a big case to move up as well despite his age.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody deserving right now; Sthele is the least performant but he’s got solid 5th starter numbers for now.
Bullpen comments; Miguel Gomez has gone from LR/SS to closer and has been very solid. He was demoted down earlier this year and might warrant a return. 2023 NDFA Arguelles didn’t give up a run this month. As mentioned, I like what Tolman is doing and wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the rotation.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
Changes since end of last month: Brayan Romero off the D/L and into what basically is now being treated like a 6-man rotation. The other 5 guys have been intact since opening day.
Rotation Observations: Garcia & Meckley, both 2024 draft picks, were excellent in June, though the team seemed to “manage” Garcia’s workload a bit with only 3 starts. Fellow 2024 draftee Tejeda was also very solid, with a 3.68 ERA and a 20/2 K/BB ratio. Neither Roman or Romero were particularly impressive this month, both with bad peripherals and poor K/9 rates. Polanco, the elder statesman of the bunch at 23, took a step back this month but has been decent all month.
Next guy to get Promoted: Polanco as the oldest guy, needs the challenge of the next level. I’d keep the rest of these 21yr olds in place for now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Roman, as he was last month. Romero didn’t light things on fire either but it was his first month back.
Bullpen comments: I like what we’re seeing from 2024 11th rounder Beeker; spot start, solid numbers. He’s already 23 so he should get moved up honestly. Cranz was 7 for 7 in save situations and needs to be promoted at this point.
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
Changes since end of last month: Johnson was promoted, had a solid low-A start, then demoted and had 4 relief appearances. Odd usage. Liam Sullivan, who started last year promising before a season-ending injury, did a month’s worth of rehab starts here and may get pushed to Low-A officially soon.
Rotation Observations: Feliz looks solid; 13/1 K/BB, 1.96 ERA. He’s only 19 though, so no rush. Liam Sullivan had a 0.90 ERA; he needs to go up.
So far in 2025, Feliz (a 23IFA) is doing great: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA. Lunar (a 24IFA for a bonus amount small enough not to be reported) is doing great: sub 3.00 ERA but more importantly he earned his way off the island. Portorreal is struggling (2.00 whip), as is Farias (13 walks in 11 innings). Johnson is way too old to be here (age 23) and it shows: in 18IP so far he’s got a 21/3 K/BB and has given up just 9 hits and one run. Portorreal: what are we doing here? 8+ ERA, 23 hits in 13 innings, just 6 walks. Not good. Lunar is showing some promise, Faries not so much.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Farias. Same as last month, turns 23 this month, averaging nearly a walk an inning. Portorreal isn’t impressing anyone either.
Bullpen comments: Not sure why 23yr olds Johnson or Kane are still in FCL. The rest of the relievers here are a hodgepodge of IFAs with just a few innings not worth analyzing.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
Changes since end of last month: Mejia and his 10.61 ERA replaced by Torrelles and his 1.29 ERA
Rotation Observations: First month through and DSL’s rotation looks promising. We have three guys putting up solid numbers in Reyes, De la Cruz, and Torrellas. Robles has a .179 BAA but those hits keep turning into runs, inflating his ERA. Only Mejia (already in the pen) and Carrasco (a .400 BAA and a 9.69 ERA so far) have really struggled.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Carrasco
Bullpen comments: There’s a couple arms worth moving to the FCL, including a 20yr old 25IFA in Juan Lopez who has 23 Ks in 13ip and needs another challenge.
