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Race to the Bottom; 2019 Edition

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Casey Mize was Detroit's 2018 1-1 pick; who will join him next June?  Photo d1baseball.com

Casey Mize was Detroit’s 2018 1-1 pick; who will join him next June? Photo d1baseball.com

So, with a week to go, who’s in the lead for the #1 overall draft pick/largest bonus pool for the 2020 draft?

http://www.tankathon.com/mlb

I love that there’s an official “Tanking” page now tracking this.

With a week to go, here’s how we stack up (records as of 9/24/19).  There’s really only four teams to discuss; there’s a 7 game gap to the 5th worst team right now.

  1. Detroit: 46-109, projecting to 48-114.  Remaining Schedule: home to Min, away to CWS.  Likely getting swept by Minnesota, who is pushing for playoff positioning but may get some wins against CWS.
  2. Baltimore: 51-106, projecting to 53-109.  Remaining schedule: away to Tor, away to Bos.  may end up picking up a couple of wins here since all remaining teams also playing out the stretch.
  3. Miami: 55-101, projecting to 57-105.  Remaining schedule: away to NYM, away to Phi.  May very well lose out, given that these two teams are finishing strong.  but seems locked into 3rd spot.
  4. Kansas City: 57-100, projecting to 59-103.  Remaining schedule: home to Atl, home to Minn.  hosting all playoff teams still pushing, might lose out.

So, here’s the top 4 of next year’s draft.  At this point, it seems pretty likely that this will be the tankathon finish too.  Detroit is locked in for #1, Baltimore is pretty well locked into #2.  We might see a flip between 3 and 4 but doubtful since both teams are playing motivated squads to finish up.

So, what’s the prize of the 2020 draft?  Well, unlike 2019, when the conesnsus 1-1 overall pick Adley Rutschmann was pretty well established even at this early date, the 2020 draft isn’t consensus for #1 overall yet.   But the top few picks likely will include names from this list:

College top candidates for 2020

  • Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF Arizona State.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 Collegiate USA team as freshman.  Hit 25 homers as a freshman, 22 homers as sophomore.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.   2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
  • Emerson Hancock, RHP Georgia.  High-90s fastball, 3-pitch guy, great sophomore numbers for #3 team in the land.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore
  • Austin Martin, 2b/ss/3B Vanderbilt.  Slashed .410/.502/.603 as a sophomore w/ speed.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  Plays 6 positions, should be primary SS in 2020.  1st team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team

Or, if a prep player goes:

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (CF) Harvard-Westlake HS, CA.  top all-around prep position player in draft.   Vanderbilt commit.  3rd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior
  • Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B DeSoto Central High School (Southaven, Mississippi).  Re-classified/graduating early.   Mississippi State commit
  • Dylan Crews, OF Lake Mary HS (Fla).  LSU commit.  PG has him as #2 prep player in class, long-time member of US national teams.

The last time Detroit picked 1st overall, they got a guy in Casey Mize in 2018 who dominated high-A in 6 starts to begin the 2019 season, then threw a no-hitter in his AA debut.  He finished off AA this year with solid numbers for a 22 yr old, and could be featuring in the Detroit rotation mid-next season … that is if the team doesn’t play service time manipulation games.

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

September 24th, 2019 at 12:43 pm

Prep Baseball Coverage 2019: Player of the Year Lists

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Last post covering local baseball for 2019; this one tries to summarize all the various “Player of the Year” announcements from various shops, both local and national.

I kind of ran out of gas on this one; fighting through a dozen different paywalls and I never could find the official announcements of Virginia regional all-player lists.   But this is still a pretty good summary of the various POTY lists.

 


 

Individual Player Accolades Announced

In addition to being playoff-baseball time, this is also the time of the year that we start to see player awards.  I’ll put these in as they publish, but we won’t expect most of these until the end of June.

National Lists and State breakouts as available.

  • Gatorade Player of the year awards.  National POTY was Bobby Witt Jr., drafted 2nd overall in the 2019 baseball draft.
    • Maryland:  Jack Bulger, Jr. C from DeMatha.  Early commit to Vanderbilt.
    • Washington DCCollin Bosley-Smith, Jr. RHP from Wilson.   Early commit to Duke.
    • VirginiaNate Savino, Jr. LHP from Potomac Falls.  Early commit to UVA.
  • MaxPreps High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock named to 2nd team.
  • Baseball America High School All-Americans: no POTY declared.  No local players on 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams.
  • USA Today/American Family All-USA teamsBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.  Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha) named to 1st team, Brett Cook from Benedictine 2nd team.  Jamari Baylor HM.
  • American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA)/Rawlings 2019 High School All AmericansBobby Witt named POTY.  local players Jack Bulger C DeMatha and Joe Clancy RHP Westfields named to 3rd team.
  • Collegiate Baseball High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players on 1st team: Jose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore (NC State commit.).  2nd team: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Parker Landwehr C Calvert Hall (Boston College commit).
  • Perfectgame.org/Rawlings All-Americans: (unclear if they’re still doing these lists).
    • Maryland:
    • Washington DC:
    • Virginia:
  • PrepBaseballReport; Brett Bady national POTY.  12th overall pick by NY Mets.
    • All Maryland TeamRyan Calvert, RHP/1B from LaPlata HS POTY as a junior.
    • All Virginia/DC Team:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.

 

DC/MD/VA Local

  • Washington Post All-Met team 2019Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro TeamJose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore.  NC State commit.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro Team: (behind a paywall)
  • Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater teamMason Dunaway, SS Hickory is POTY.  JMU commit.
  • Virginia Class 6 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater) All Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA, inner suburbs) All-Regional teamLyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • Region D (Northern VA, Western Suburbs) All Regional teamZach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield HS POTY.  ECU commit like his brother ahead of him.
  • Virginia Class 5 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamBen Williamson, SS Freedom-South Riding.  William & Mary commit.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional teamDrew Harlow, RHP/SS Halifax county POTY.  Undecided/no commit as of 6/8/19
  • Virginia Class 4 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamJoe Vogatsky, jr RHP/3B from Kettle Run HS POTY.   early commit to JMU.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team:
  • Other Virginia All-Regional teams: harder to come by:
    • Class 3 Region B (Culpepper/Warrenton area) All Regional teamJake (Jakob) Dudley, 1B/3B from Culpeper County HS is POTY.  No college listed.
    • Class 2 Region B (NorthWest VA) all Region Team:  T.R. Williams, Sophomore RHP from Page County POTY.
  • Northern Virginia All-District teams:
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine top 100 listJoey Kamide‘s top 100 players from the 85 high schools in the NoVa coverage area.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • VHSL All-State Teams: all 6 teams available from this link.
    • 6-A: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • 5-A: Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
    • 4-A: Quade Tomlin, SS jr from Liberty Christian Academy POTY.  Liberty U commit.
    • 3-A: Jacob Critzer, C Fluvana County HS POTY.    No college commitment known.
    • 2-A: Andrew Potojecki, RHP Chatham HS (Danville) POTY.  Longwood College commit.
    • 1-A: Matthew Kleinfelter, RHP Lancaster HS POTY.   JMU commit.
  • VISAA’s All-State teams
    • Division III All State Team: Tanner Schobel, SS Walsingham Academy  (Williamsburg) POTY as Junior.  Early Virginia Tech commit.
    • Division II All State Team: Jeremy Wagner, OF/RHP from the Miller School (Albemarle) POTY as Junior.  Early Austin Peay commit.
    • Division I All State Team: Aiden Kuhle, RHP/1B from Cape Henry Collegiate (Virginia Beach) POTY.  Roanoke College commit.
  • Maryland All-MIAA All-State teams:
    • MIAA A division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA B division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA C division: behind a paywall
  • Maryland State Association of Baseball Coaches (MSABC) All-Maryland teams: four regional all-star teams picked for exhibitions.
  • Maryland Brooks Robinson All-Star game rosters
  • Anne-Arundel County All-Baseball team: unknown
  • Montgomery County All-Baseball Team: unknown
  • All Baltimore-City Baseball team: behind a paywall
  • All Fredericksburg Baseball team:  Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
  • All WCAC: unknown
  • All IAC: unknown
  • All MAC: unknown

If I missed an award, or if you know of something I don’t, don’t hesitate to post.

 


Past awards that no longer seem to be in existence:

  • Louisville Slugger All-Americans: last awarded in 2016.
  • National High School Coaches Association (NHSCA) POTY: last awarded in 2017.
  • Under Armor All-Americans: perhaps there used to be selections, but now there’d just a game mid-July of mostly rising senior all stars.
  • USA Today/American Family All-State Teams and POTYs: stopped doing state-level all-state baseball teams for 2019.

Nats 2019 Draft Class Wrap-Up

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Rutledge is signed up and ready to go. Photo via BA

Jackson Rutledge is signed up and ready to go. Photo via BA

The 7/15/19 deadline has passed, and the Nats have their official Draft class.

The last two top-10 round players signed (CWS participants Drew Mendoza and Matt Cronin) signed with little fan-fare and suddenly we had Mendoza showing up in Hagerstown.  We learned later he signed an over-slot deal for $800k, about $181k over slot and using up basically every last penny of our 2019 bonus pool and the 5% cushion.   (nearly every penny; see below for what the Nats did with the leftover dollars): Here’s a summary of the top-10 picks and the over-slot guys counting against the cap:

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmStateBonus AmtSlot ValueSavings off of Slot?
117Rutledge, JacksonRHP (Starter)Col J2San Jacinto College North (TXTX34500003609700159700
394Mendoza, Drew3BCol JrFlorida State UFL800000618200-181800
4123Cronin, MattLHP (Reliever)Col JrArkansasAR4645004645000
5153Dyson, TylerRHP (Starter)Col JrFloridaFL500000346800-153200
6183Cluff, JacksonSSCol SoBYUUT20000026600066000
7213Peterson, ToddRHP (Reliever)Col JrLSULA220000208200-11800
8243Ydens, JeremyOF (CF)Col JrUCLACA1695001695000
9273McMahon, HunterRHP (Starter)Col JrTexas StateTX1526001526000
10303Pratt, AndrewCCol SrLubbock ChristianTX10000144100134100
11333Arruda, J.T.SSCol JrFresno StateCA250000125000-125000
13393Randa, JakeOF (corner)Col J2NW Florida StateFL300000125000-175000
14423Knowles, LucasLHP (Starter)Col J3Central Arizona CollegeAZ136980125000-11980

The Nats gave over-slot deals to:

  • 3rd rounder Mendoza
  • 5th rounder Tyler Dyson
  • 7th rounder Todd Peterson
  • 11th rounder J.T. Arruda
  • 13th rounder Jake Randa.
  • 14th rounder Lucas Knowles, who gets the $11,980 exactly left over after the Nats signed Mendoza.  It seems like they signed Mendoza, calculated their remaining dollars with the 5% cushion, and gave Knowles that number and he took it.

I especially like the 11th and 13th round deals: Arruda got 6th round money and Randa got 5th round money, so that gives our draft class some extra talent.

Meanwhile, under-slot deals given to 1st rounder Jackson Rutledge, 6th rounder  Jackson Cluff, and 10th rounder Andrew Pratt enabled these moves.  I’m especially surprised that Rutledge signed for under slot, after having fallen on most draft boards.  This usually indicates that a player will demand over-slot money, not accept under-slot money.  The team made just one Senior Sign/blatant bonus money move, the 10th round catcher Pratt.

Bonus Pool Accounting for 2019:

  • Original Bonus amount for top 10 rounds: $5,979,600
  • Bonus amount plus 5% cushion: $6,278,580
  • Total Bonuses given counting against the cap: $6,216,600
  • Total savings/space left: 0$ exactly.  As noted above, the final $11,980 went to Knowles.
  • Total known Bonus money paid, all rounds: $7,536,600

the Nats paid a slew of $125k deals in the 11th-20th rounds to secure all these Juco guys.

Biggest surprise signings:

  • 23rd rounder HS pick Michael Cuevas, who took the $125k to forgoe a Juco commitment and come on board out of HS
  • 13th rounder Randa, who got bought out of a SEC Mississippi State transfer commitment.
  • 14th rounder Knowles, who seemed like he was bailing until offered slightly more than $125k and signed.
  • 32nd rounder Dylan Beasley, a college Junior who took $50k to turn pro.

Biggest surprise non-signings:

  • none really: our 26th rounder college Senior Dupree Hart has yet to sign as of 7/9/19, and his twitter says he’s a “financial Advisor” with Northwestern Mutual, so he may be declining a pro baseball career.

All told, 29 of their 39 picks got signed.

Assignments for the class:

  • 12 to GCL, including several college seniors who are going to be way too old for the level
  • 5 who spent a few days in GCL then went to Short-A
  • 9 Straight to Short-A
  • 3 straight to Low-A: Mendoza, Cronin and Cluff; havn’t seen a draft pick straight to such a high level since Stephen Strasburg, unless i’m not remembering someone in particular

 

 

 

 

Nats 2019 Draft Class; Highlights of picks 11-40 and overall class breakdowns

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Arruda is the first pick on day three. Photo via Fresno State Athletics department

Arruda is the first pick on day three. Photo via Fresno State Athletics department

Another  year in the books, and another 40 guys now potentially part of the Nats organization.

We reviewed the top 10 more in-depth in the previous post. Lets zip through the rest of the draft and do some quick commentary as needed.  I’m basically depending on BA’s scouting reports for observations (hey, I finally subscribed, so might as well use them).

  • Round 11: J.T. Arruda, Fresno State’s starting SS.  Redshirt Sophomore, with no Baseball America scouting profile (which is odd, because they have hundreds and hundreds of them).  Stat line at Fresno State looks good, but so does everyone else’s on that solid team.  But he does have a good combo of power and speed.  Undersized (5’10”) and clearly a 2B/SS type guy.  An interesting selection with #11, which is generally where  you try to find guys who slipped out of the top 5-6 rounds who may sign.  I’d like to see something like a Max Schrock or Steven Lombardozzi career out of him; good hit tool, utility infielder who can stick around and help.
  • Round 12: Orlando Ribaltra, Miami Dade Juco RHP.  Graduated HS in 2016 so he’s basically a College Jr.  Already a reliever, hit 97 and scouts think he can go higher.  Secondary pitches lacking (hence already being a reliever, even in Juco).  I’m guessing he’s straight tot he closer role in Short-A and stays there all the way up.  BA lists no xfer commitment and I think its safe to say he’ll sign for the $125k or close to it.
  • Round 13: Jake Randa, NW Florida State Juco Corner OF.  BA says he’s one of the best JuCo hitters in the country; he slashed .412/.507/.753 as a freshman before cooling a bit in 2019.   He also impressed this past summer in the Wood bat Northwoods league.  He was projected to go in the 6th-7th round or so this year and slipped.  Has committed to transfer to Mississippi State and I think he’s a tough sign here; if he was projected 6th round and has an SEC xfer commitment, why would he sign for $125k when he could do one more year of school on the big stage and really make himself some money?
  • Round 14: Lucas Knowles, Central Arizona Juco LHP.  Interesting story; he was a weekend starter as a RS freshman for U-Washington, then left when they didn’t pony up a scholarship.  He does have an xfer commitment to Kentucky for his Junior  year, but he’s already got three college years (he redshirted with TJ surgery, so this Juco year was his 3rd college season).  He profiles like a Tom Glavine type: 88-91, control lefty with four pitches.   I think he signs in lieu of xferring to his 3rd program in four years and gets started.  I’d like to think he’s a 2019 Short-A/2020 Low-A rotation guy for us.
  • Round 15: Davis Moore, Fresno State weekend RHP starter.  Numbers don’t look great (3.91 ERA) but its also a hitter’s league (the Mountain West Conference has teams in Vegas, Reno, Colorado Springs, Albequerque and Fresno, all altitude/dry air places.  Even San Jose, despite being on the Pacific coast, is in a dryer climate that far inland).  He really pitched well against Stanford in the regional too, perhaps impressing scouts to bump him a bit.  Sinkerballer, not a ton of velocity but scouts think his sinker will really play against wood bats.  I like his profile especially against lower-level wood bats.
  • Round 16: Junior Martina, Western OK State Juco SS.  BA doesn’t have a scouting report on him, and Western Oklahoma State’s stat page doesn’t have him on the roster, at least not by the name “Junior Martina.”   If he goes by “Junior Osebo” instead, then he was a middle reliever with decent stuff and decent stats.  I don’t know if he’s got a 4yr transfer commitment.  An enigma.
  • Round 17: Amos Willingham, RHP starter from Georgia Tech.  No BA scouting report, but he ended the season as the #1/Friday night starter for one of the best collegiate teams in the country this year and pitched for them in the opener of their CWS regional (getting a 6ip 2-run quality start win).   His stat line on the season is poor: 5.19 ERA, but he came on strong at the end.   Some internet research showed that he was a Juco xfer to Georgia Tech, and sometimes suffers from a strength-sapping stomach ailment that may explain some bouts of ineffectiveness.   I wonder if he’s signable, given that he’s at a big-time program, finally started to shine in Ga Tech’s rotation towards the end of the year, and may want another shot at improving upon his ERA as a senior.
  • Round 18: Mason Doolittle, C from Palm Beach Juco in Fl.  No BA scouting report, but does have an xfer commitment to Appalachian State.
  • Round 19: Tyler Yankowsky, RHP reliever from Division II Millersville U.  He’s already been dumped from the rotation to the bullpen in a Div-II school, but BA says he’s mid-90s with a good cutter and a fringe curve.  BA’s scouting report also has this weird quote: “An excellent golfer in high school, Yankowsky’s command and delivery explain why he’s a reliever.”   I’m not sure what his command and delivery have to do with the fact that he was a good golfer in  high school; frankly, most every top baseball hitter I know is also a good golfer.  Why?  because golf requires the exact same hand-eye coordination that hitting a baseball requires.  Anyway; he’s 6’6″ with a two-pitch mix; sounds like a good pro reliever for the time being.
  • Round 20: Jack Dunn, Senior SS from baseball hot-bed Northwestern.   1st team all big-10 his senior year.  Not much else out there about him; no BA scouting report.  He’s from Georgia and was decently regarded out of HS.  Looks like a lead-off hitter for Northwestern, decent stats, decent OBP.   Maybe he’s the 2B half of a double play combo in Short-A with Arruda.

Past Round 20, I’ll just note interesting guys; see the table above for the next 20 picks fully.

  • Seven of the Ten picks in the Rounds 21-30 are college seniors, mostly position players, likely filling out Short-season squads with $5k-$10k players.
  • Round 22: Allan Berrios, a Juco 3rd year Catcher from the same Western Oklahoma State team as 16th rounder Martina.  Perfect game has absolutely nothing on the guy, not even ranked coming out of Florida as a prep.  BA has nothing.  An interesting pick.    But here’s the guy’s slash line this year: .427/.484/.729.  In 53 games he had 12 homers, a 20/17 K/BB ratio and even had 17 SBs.  Holy cow.   He was batting above .500 for more than half the season.  I get that this is Juco and not as competitive as 4-year conferences, but this is also not exactly slow-pitch softball, and to hit this well against guys trying to get you out is pretty impressive.
  • Round 23; Michael Cuevas, the first Prep/HS player taken by the Nats in the 2019 draft.  Drafted as a RHP, committed to a JuCo program, so this seems like an odd pick here.
  • Round 25: Quinn Parker, a 1b from Hofstra.  Notable b/c the Nats also drafted him in 2015 out of HS, in the 40th round.
  • Round 29: Brandon Gonzales is the 2nd Prep/HS player taken; he may be a legacy pick as the Nats central region cross checker is Jimmy Gonzales.  He’s committed to a texas Juco.
  • Round 33: Cutter Clawson is a prep LHP with a BYU commit (which usually means Morman, which usually is a tough commitment to buy out), so this seems like a throw-away pick.
  • Round 35: Bryce Osmond was a top 50 prospect heading into the draft, and when he fell out of the top two rounds he basically guaranteed his attendance to college (in his case, top program Oklahoma State).
  • Round 37: Tei Cruz, notable b/c he’s a third generation baseball player (grand father Jose Cruz, father Jose Cruz Jr.).  He’s at Rice, seems like a good bet now to stay there.
  • Round 39: Jake Bennett is a LHP committed to Oklahoma.

 

Summary of the Draft class:

  • 19 Arms, 20 bats.
  • 14 College Juniors (or draft-eligible Sophomores)
  • 9 College Seniors with no leverage
  • 8 Juco guys (!)
  • 8 High Schoolers, 7 of which are basically throw-away picks in later rounds or legacy picks.

No less than 8 Juco guys, most of which were in the 11-20 range.  This is an interesting strategy.

Of the 23 4-year college guys:

  • 3 from SEC teams: Arkansas, Florida, LSU
  • 1 from Pac-12 teams: UCLA
  • 3 from ACC teams: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Boston College
  • 1 from Big10 teams: Northwestern
  • 0 from Big12 teams
  • 2 from MWC teams: Fresno State (2)
  • 1 from C-USA teams; Rice
  • 7 from smaller Div 1 programs: BYU, Texas State (2), Tennessee Tech, Hofstra, College of Charleston, UC Irvine
  • 5 from non division 1 programs: Lubbock Christian, Millersville, Biola, South Dakota State,  Berry,

Not one team from the typical feeding ground of Big-12 Texas/Oklahoma programs this year.  Instead, a lot of geographic diversity from a ton of different programs.

Geographic Locations of picks:

  • 9 from Texas Schools
  • 6 from California schools
  • 5 from Florida schools
  • 4 from Oklahoma schools

that’s 24 of 39 picks just from four states.  And the Texas/Oklahoma area again is well represented in our draft class.

Signability:  my quick glance at this class, assuming there’s no signing issues with anyone in our top 10,  I think we end up signing somewhere around 28 of these draftees.   Here’s my predictions:

  • 6 of the 8 JuCo guys sign, missing out on #13 Randa and #34 Battles
  • all 9 College Srs sign
  • Just 1 of the 8 HS guys sign (#23 Cuevas)
  • 12 of the 14 College So/Jrs sign, missing out on #17 Amos and #37 Cruz.

Here’s a table with all our picks picks.

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmStateSlot Value
117Rutledge, JacksonRHP (Starter)Col J2San Jacinto College North (TXTX3609700
257forfeitedforfeited
394Mendoza, Drew3BCol JrFlorida State UFL618200
4123Cronin, MattLHP (Reliever)Col JrArkansasAR464500
4-comp139forfeitedforfeited
5153Dyson, TylerRHP (Starter)Col JrFloridaFL346800
6183Cluff, JacksonSSCol SoBYUUT266000
7213Peterson, ToddRHP (Reliever)Col JrLSULA208200
8243Ydens, JeremyOF (CF)Col JrUCLACA169500
9273McMahon, HunterRHP (Starter)Col JrTexas StateTX152600
10303Pratt, AndrewCCol SrLubbock ChristianTX144100
11333Arruda, J.T.SSCol JrFresno StateCA
12363Ribalta, OrlandoRHP (Reliever)Col J2Miami DadeFL
13393Randa, JakeOF (corner)Col J2NW Florida StateFL
14423Knowles, LucasLHP (Starter)Col J3Central Arizona CollegeAZ
15453Moore, DavisRHP (Starter)Col JrFresno StateCA
16483Martina, JuniorSSCol J2Western Oklahoma StateOK
17513Willingham, AmosRHP (Starter)Col JrGeorgia TechGA
18543Doolittle, MasonCCol J2Palm Beach CCFL
19573Yankosky, TylerRHP (Reliever)Col JrMillersville UniversityPA
20603Dunn, JackSSCol SrNorthwesternIL
21633Strohschein, Kevin1BCol SrTennessee TechTN
22663Berrios, AllanCCol J3Western Oklahoma StateOK
23693Cuevas, MichaelRHP (Starter)HSTexas Rio Grande ValleyTX
24723Alu, Jake3BCol SrBoston CollegeMA
25753Quinn, Parker1BCol SrHofstraNY
26783Hart, Dupree2BCol SrCollege of CharlestonSC
27813Hubbard, Jaylen3BCol 5SrTexas StateTX
28843Bocko, JordanRHPCol SrUC IrvineCA
29873Gonzales, BrandonSSHSGreyson County CollegeTX
30903Stainbrook, TroyLHPCol SrBiola UniversityCA
31933Stover, BradyLHPCol JrSouth Dakota StateSD
32963Beasley, DylanRHPCol JrBerry CollegeGA
33993Clawson, CutterLHP (Starter)HSBYUCA
341023Battles, JalenSSCol J1McLennan CCTX
351053Osmond, BryceRHP (Starter)HSOklahoma StateOK
361083Wibbels, SamRHP (Starter)HSKentuckyNE
371113Cruz, TreiSSCol SoRiceTX
381143LaRue, TylerCHSUncommittedTX
391173Bennett, JakeRHP (Starter)HSOklahomaOK
401203Brown, JadenSSHSKentuckyCAN

 

Nats 2019 Draft: 1st and 2nd Day Reactions of top 10 picks

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Mendoza is our 2nd highest 2019 pick out of FSU. Photo via the Daily Nole

Mendoza is our 2nd highest 2019 pick out of FSU. Photo via the Daily Nole

Here’s a first look at our top 10 rounds worth of draft picks, or where we stand after day 2 of the MLB Draft.

Overall, the mock draft pundits really nailed the top of this draft, perfectly predicting the first 7 picks.  Starting around pick 8 though, we started to see enough surprises/reaches that allowed the Nats to end up with a guy ranked as  high as #12 on most pre-draft boards at the #17 pick, pretty good value all things considered.  They also got pretty good “value” with their 3rd and 4th rounders.

How about the Nats picks?

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmStateSlot Value
117Rutledge, JacksonRHP (Starter)Col J2San Jacinto College North (TXTX3609700
257forfeitedforfeited
394Mendoza, Drew3BCol JrFlorida State UFL618200
4124Cronin, MattLHP (reliever)Col JrArkansasAR464500
4comp139forfeitedforfeited
5155Dyson, TylerRHP (starter)Col JrFloridaFL346800
6184Cluff, JacksonSSCol SoBYUUT266000
7214Peterson, ToddRHP (reliever)Col JrLSULA208200
8244Ydens, JeremyOF (corner)Col JrUCLACA169500
9274McMahon, HunterRHP (starter)Col Jr.Texas StateTX152600
10304Pratt, AndrewCCol SrLubbock ChristianTX144100

Pick by Pick:  I’ve included draft board rankings if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom for the sources);

  • 1st Round/#17 overall: Jackson Rutledge, RHP from Texas Juco.  See stand-alone post on Rutledge for more.  Pre-draft Ranks: #15th by Keith Law, 12th by MLB, 14th by Baseball America, 13th by 20/80, 21st by Fangraphs.
  • (2nd Round/#57 overall): forfeited in the Patrick Corbin signing.   #57 pick ended up being Matt Gorski, a College Jr CF from Indiana U as selected by Pittsburgh.
  • 3rd Round/#94 overall: Drew Mendoza, 3B from Florida State.  Ranks: #55 on MLBpipeline, #84 on 20/80, #52 on Fangraphs, #75 on BA.  Was a 1st-2nd round prospect coming out of HS, is a huge guy (6’5″).  Left-handed hitting, big power guy.  67/65 K/BB ratio in 60 college games for a gaudy slash line of .320/.482/.631 with 16 homers.  Of concern: 15 errors in 60 games at the hot corner.  Seems like he’s headed to 1B.  Hey, as long as he hits.  I like the general rankings of Mendoza (50s to 70s) versus his draft spot (94), that’s almost a round worth of value.
  • 4th Round/#123 overall: Matt Cronin, LHP (reliever) from Arkansas.  Ranks: #74 Keith Law, #73 MLB, #99 fangraphs, #71 BA, #72 20/80.  Arkansas’ closer, posted 40/14 K/BB in 27 innings.  .163 BAA and a WHIP just above 1.00.  Reportedly hits 98 with little in the way of secondary pitches, so sounds like a lefty reliever all the way.  The Nats also drafted some reliever-only guys high up in 2018 (Reid Schaller was exclusively in the bullpen in college, but then did nothing but start in short season in 2018), so it remains to be seen how he’d be used.  As with Mendoza, lots of value here.  He’s ranked generally in the mid 70s by nearly every pundit but lasts until #123 in the draft.
  • (4th round comp/138 overall): also forfeited in the Corbin singing.  Actual pick at #138 was Darrell Hernatz, prep HS SS from Texas.
  • 5th round/#154 overall: Tyler Dyson, RHP (starter/reliever) from Florida.  Ranks: #123 BA, #142 MLB.  Hard throwing but wild starter who was a pre-season All American selection .. but ended up kicked out of U-Florida’s rotation.  It sounds to me like he’s a project; a two pitch guy who’s lost faith in one of them and thus gotten whacked around.  With refinement of a 2nd pitch, he’s a useful bullpen guy.  With the reclamation of a third pitch, he’s back to being an effective starter.  He’s a 1st round talent without the 1st round consistency.  An interesting risk pick here.
  • 6th round/184 overall: Jackson Cluff, SS draft-eligible Soph. from BYU.  He’s a bit older (he missed 2 years with a Mission), hence why he’s draft eligible sophomore.   BA reports him has being basically a utility infielder type, able to play 2B, SS, 3B, with decent hitting and good speed (12-for-12 SBs on the  year).   He is unranked by any service, making me think perhaps this is a slot-savings pick.
  • 7th round/214 overall: Todd Peterson, RHP reliever from LSU.  #218 on BA.  Reliever-only guy for LSU, sharing closer duties this year.  BA scouting report says he’s a 2-pitch guy with some inconsistencies.
  • 8th round/244 overall: Jeremy Ydens, corner OF for UCLA, college Jr.  BA scouting report says he made the All Star team in the Cape Cod league last summer, broke a finger early this season and barely played.  I wonder if he’s even signable here; slot value is $169k: I wonder if he’d roll the dice and return to school.  That being said, basically every player taken in the top 10 rounds has a pre-selection deal verbally agreed to, so there shouldn’t be any surprises.
  • 9th round: 274 overall: Hunter McMahon, a RHP starter for Texas State.  He’s a RS sophomore, so this isn’t a senior slot savings pick.  He was a weekend starter for Texas State with crummy numbers on the season, but some flashes of brilliance (a complete game with 11 Ks and 0 walks against Louisiana-Lafayatte for example).  BA has little to no scouting on the guy.
  • 10th round/304 overall: Andrew Pratt, college Sr C from Lubbock Christian.  This seems like the sole “senior slot” guy the Nats are taking and its a classic; senior from a small school with no scouting reports on any major service.  PG notes that he was committed to New Mexico out of high school; perhaps he transferred to the smaller school to maintain eligibility.  Kudos to saving bonus money and getting a college catcher.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

  • 5 arms, 4 position players
  • 9 college (1 juco), 0 high schoolers.
  • Of the 5 arms: 2 starters, 2 relievers, and one starter-dumped-to-relief arm.
  • Just 1 slot-saving senior draftee; 10th round Pratt pick.
  • Heavy influence from major college programs: Florida, two from Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Florida State.

Conclusion: I liked the Rutledge pick, based on the run on college bats ahead of it and the selection of Rutledge over other college arms that went just after him.  I like Mendoza, even if it seems like he’s destined for 1B.   Cronin & Dyson seem like relievers now, but with professional coaching perhaps can make a return to the rotation (much like last year’s Reid Schaller).   Ydens could be a good value pick, a guy who slid several rounds from his true talent thanks to hand injury this year.  Peterson, like the other two relievers, maybe uses some coaching to improve.  Cluff and Pratt seem like short-A utility guys.  I’m curious to see how McMahon fares against better competition than C-USA.  All in all, not a bad collection of picks given the lack of a 2nd rounder.

What do you guys think of it?


Draft Links of Use

  1. Mlbpipeline’s Draft Tracker for 2019
  2. All 10 rounds of slot bonus figures for 2019
  3. BA’s draft database with search options by team, state, etc. (behind a paywall)
  4. Perfect Game to get profiles on more obscure draftees.

Draft Rankings referred to within here:

Nats 2019 Draft: Reaction to Day 1/1st round pick Jackson Rutledge

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Nats throw everyone a curveball with Rutledge pick. photo via 3rdmanin.com

Nats throw everyone a curveball with Rutledge pick. photo via 3rdmanin.com

Well, nobody saw this coming.

After reviewing dozens of mock drafts, most of which (in the last couple of weeks or so) had the Nats clearly focusing on Florida prep RHP Matthew Allan as their pick … ended up selecting a guy that not one Mock draft I read had the Nats picking.  The Nats with the 17th pick take Jackson Rutledge, a huge RHP from San Jacinto College in Texas, having transferred out of Arkansas after one season in 2018.

So, how did Rutledge get to the Nats?  And, how did the Nats take him over their presumed pick?

I went back and looked at all the later mock drafts; Most had Rutledge going in the 11-14 range.  Toronto and Philadelphia both were presumed to be taking college arms, and Rutledge was a common name falling to them.  MLBPipeline had him going 9th to the Braves.  So what happened?

  • the Braves took Shea Langeliers at #9 probably earlier than many thought.
  • Toronto at 11 indeed took a college arm; they grabbed WVA starter Alex Manoah.
  • Then, at 14 Philadelphia found possible top 10 guy Bryson Stott available and grabbed him.

So that left Rutledge available at 17 for the Nats.  Who did they pass up on at this point?  In the picks right after, we saw guys that the Nats had been associated with go in fast order: Quinn Priester (prep RHP), Zack Thompson  (lefty college starter from U-Kentucky), and George Kirby (RHP from Elon).

Matthew Allan went unsigned, despite being (by far) the BPA on MLBpipeline’s draft boards (he was ranked #13).  In fact, on the broadcast for the draft I noticed that once the draft reached the back part of the 1st round … they summarily removed Allan from the top of the BPA list, presumably because they realized that if he didn’t go in the upper part of the 1st round, then it was almost guaranteed that he was going to go to college and not get his $4M bonus demand.

As for Rutledge, he was very highly ranked pre-draft: 15th by Keith Law, 12th by MLB, 14th by Baseball America, 13th by 20/80, 21st by Fangraphs.

So, what do we have?  We have a massive guy: 6’8″ 250.  He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics.  I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.

Quick Verdict: I think, (like a lot of Nats fans), that i’m happy the team with with a college arm and not another prep guy.  It does seem like they got decent value; they got a guy at 17 who most pundits thought was ranked higher in this class and was going higher.  I like Rutledge more than Kirby and Thompson (the two next best college guys) for various reasons (health and pedigree mostly).  So I’m happy with this pick.

2019 Draft Coverage: Local Draft prospects to keep an eye on

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After a tumultuous college career, where will hess get drafted? Photo via 247sports.

After a tumultuous college career, where will hess get drafted?
Photo via 247sports.

Its never too early to think about draft prospects.  In this case, the first cut of this post was saved in draft post format in June 2017.  Why so early?  Because that’s when we started to see collegiate “all-american” lists come out, and there’s a Freshman all-american designation for players who generally are going to be drafted in the 2019 draft.

We continually augment this post over the course of years and many posts, finally publishing just before the 2019 draft.  Today, 6/3/19, the day of the 2019 draft, we finally publish.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2015 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2015 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.  From that time frame, here’s the 2015 pre-season list and then the Post-Draft/post-signing coverage from 2015.  Pop-up guys plus non-MD/VA native players playing at MD/VA colleges are added as they become serious draft prospects.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2019

  • Zack Hess, RHP from LSU via Liberty Christian Academy.  was draft-eligible soph in 2018, back to school.  Projecting as 2nd rounder but needs solid 2019.  #46 on d1baseball’s top 50 list Dec18
  • Jake Agnos, LHP from ECU by way of Battlefield HS.  3.22 ERA in 10 mid-week/Sunday starts and 16 games overall.  #54 on d1baseball’s early 2019 list.  ECU’s friday night starter all year, finished with an 8-inning dominant regional performance and may get super regional appearance if ECU advances.
  • Tyler Blohm, LHP from UMaryland by way of Spalding HS.  2017 Freshman all-american. #40 on d1baseball’s early 2019 list.
  • Garrett Stallings, RHP from Tennessee by way of Grassfield HS in Chesapeake.  20 games, 8 starts as a freshman.  Struggled in the CWS regional, getting battered by Duke en route to a loss.
  • Conor Grammes, 3B/RHP from Xavier by way of McLean HS.  Shot up to #30 o d1baseball’s Dec 18 top 50 list.
  • Noah Song, Sr. RHP from Navy by way of Claremont, CA.  Has really shot-up on draft boards to be a 1st-2nd rounder with ridiculous K/9 rates, but what kind of Navy commitment does he have?
  • Nick Morreale, RHP from Georgetown.  #85 on d1baseball’s Sept 2018 list.  Mentioned by Jim Callis by name as a DC metro talent to watch for.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

  • Paul Witt, SS from VMI.  d1baseball early 2019 list
  • Nathan Eaton, RHP from VCU.  d1baseball early 2019 list
  • Mac McCarty, RHP (reliever) from VCU: 2nd team pre-season All American from Collegiate Baseball
  • Zach Biggers, 2B from Navy: 2nd team pre-season All American from Collegiate Baseball
  • John Wilson, LHP for ODU: 2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Kevin Kelly, RHP from JMU by way of Paul VI.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Vinnie Pasquantino, a 1B from ODU by way of James River HS (Richmond); 2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Spencer Horwitz, a C/1B from Radford by way of St. Paul HS in Timonium, MD:  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Andre Lipcius: 1B from Tennessee by way of Lafayette HS in Williamsburg, VA.  2017 Freshman all-american, starter/cleanup hitter for U-Tenn at regionals
  • Brandon Raquet, OF from W&M.  2017 Freshman all-american.  Brother of Nats 2017 3rd rounder Nick Raquet.
  • Kyle Battle, OF from ODU by way of Glen Allen.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Fox Semones, DH/RHP from JMU by way of Hylton.  2017 Freshman all-american.
  • Jared DiCesare, 3B from George Mason by way of Chantilly HS.  Cape Code league 2018.
  • Logan Driscoll C from George Mason by way of Lake Braddock HS.  Cape Code league 2018.  Mentioned by Jim Callis as a sleeper in the draft as a decent-hitting catcher in a thin position.
  • Wade Strain, RHP from William & Mary by way of Lake Braddock HS.
  • Tanner Morris, SS UVA; long time dominant prep player with decent college career.

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2019

  • Zach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield.  Brother of legendary local player and ECU starter Jake Agnos.   1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  NovaNine as a junior. early commit to ECU (where his brother goes).  1st team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.  2nd team All-Met 2018 as junior.
  • Brody Mack, 1B/LHP from Potomac.  2nd team all 5A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Cardinal District POTY as a Jr 2018.  NovaNine as a junior.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Carson Swank, SS from Riverside.  Dulles District POTY in 2019 as a junior.  Class 4 Region Co-player of the year in 2018 as a junior.  Diamond Elite summer team.  NovaNine as a junior.  Early Yale Commit.  All Met 1st team as junior in 2018
  • Clark Klitenic, LHP from St. Albans (via Bethesda, MD).  IAC POTY, All-Met 1st team as a junior.  Committed to Duke.
  • Tyler Demartino, Inf.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  PG Nationals 2018.  Early commit to West Virginia.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Cortland Lawson, SS/RHP from Paul VI in Fairfax (by way of Potomac Falls, VA). Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team, early commit to Tennessee.  At PG Nationals 2018.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Michael Bauma, INF from Sherwood HS.  All Met 1st team as junior in 2018.
  • Ryan Terrents, SS Huntington HS.  All-Maryland State by PBR in 2018 as a junior.  Mid-Atlantic Red Sox summer team.  2nd team All-Met 2018 as junior.
  • Brady Pearre, SS/3B from Poolesville HS.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team, early commit to  High Point.
  • Lyle Miller-Green, RHP at Lake Braddock.  2nd-team all 6A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Early commit to Va Tech.   2nd team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ben Vok, RHP from Sherwood (Olney): Montgomery County pitcher of the year as a Jr in 2018.
  • Ethan Lipp, RHP from Madison.  1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  Evoshield Mid-Atlantic.
  • Matt Howat, LHP from Madison.  1st team all 6-A North Region 2018 as a junior.  Marucci Stars summer team.
  • Dylan Wilkinson, SS from Fairfax.  1st team Class 6 Occoquan all-region as a junior.  MVP Royals summer team.
  • Magnus Ellerts, RHP from Woodbridge.   1st team Class 6 Occoquan all-region as a junior.
  • Luke Burner, ? position from the Highland School (Warrenton): All VISAA-II state 2018.
  • Nick Lockhart, RHP Woodgrove HS.  2018 All Region 4C selection.  Early Virginia Tech signing.
  • Michael Tolson, RHP Stafford HS.  2018 All Region 5C selection.  2018 Commonwealth district POTY as junior.  ODU commit.
  • Dylan Weber, LHP Dominion HS.  2nd team all Region 4C 2018 as junior.
  • Thomas Keehn, SS DeMatha HS.  PG Nationals 2018, early commit to Duke.

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

  • Jamari Baylor, SS Benedictine HS (Glen Allen).  At PG Nationals 2018.  Top 100 d1baseball ranked player in VA.  Committed to JuCo.  VA Gatorade POTY 2019.
  • Zack Beach, 1B/DH from Atlee HS in Mechanicsburg.   2nd team all 5A North Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina.
  • Jamison Covey, RHP from Colonial Richardson HS in Preston MD.  Early commit to Ole Miss.  On the stacked East Coast Sox Select WWBA 17 team.
  • Griffen Agee, 1b/LHP from Jefferson Forest HS in Forest (Lynchburg), VA.  Early commit to UVA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  PG Nationals 2018.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Marcus Lee Sang, OF from Northern HS in Olney, MD.  2018 Area Code Games
  • Geo Rivera, RHP Lafayette HS in Williamsburg.  2018 Area code games.
  • Jimmy Starnes,  RHP IMG Academy (by way of Richmond VA).  PG Nationals 2018, early commit to West Virginia.
  • Casey Greene, 3B/RHP from Benedictine HS in Chesterfield, VA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina.  Canes Nat’l team WWBA 2018
  • Liam Deegan, 3B from Mils Godwin  HS in Richmond.  Early commit to UVA, top prospect PBF 2018.  At PG Nationals 2018.
  • Carson Jones, LHP from Deep Run HS.  Early commit to UVA, top prospect PBF 2018.
  • Reece Early, of/RHP from Gerstell Academy in Reistertown, MD.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.
  • Drew Harlow, SS/RHP from Halifax County HS in Halifax, VA.  Evoshield Canes Prospect WWBA 2017 championship team.
  • Jacob Williams, 1B from Harrisonburg HS.  2nd team all 4A West Region as a sophomore in 2017.
  • Austin Custer, SS/RHP from Bassett HS in Fieldale, VA.  2nd team all 4A West Region as a sophomore in 2017.  Dirtbags summer team.
  • Ricky Jones, OF/CF from Hopewell HS.  1st team all 3A West as a sophomore in 2017.  1st team VHSL Class 3 all-state 2018 as junior.
  • Dylan Young, RHP from Chesapeake-AA.  All Anne-Arundel county in 2017 as sophomore.
  • Garrett Stanard, 2B from Arundel HS.  All Anne-Arundel county in 2017 as sophomore.
  • Justin Starke C from Prince George HS.  2nd team VHSL All state 5A as sophomore in 2017.  2nd Team All-Richmond 2017 as sophomore.  Early commit to VMI.
  • Bryce Frederick, SS Dulaney HS.  All-Maryland State by PBR in 2018 as a junior.
  • Buck Forbes, RHP for Prince George HS.  Pitched 1-hit shutout in 2018 state title game as junior.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Andrew Potojecki, RHP for Chatham HS.  1st team VHSL All State Class 2 2018 as a junior.  Dirtbags  WWBA 2018 team, early commit to Longwood.
  • Justin Lewis, 1B for Virginia HS.  1st team VHSL All State Class 2 2018 as a junior.
  • Pell Collins, 2B for LCA.  1st team VHSK All State Class 4 2018 as a junior.
  • Emmanuel Johnson, OF for LCA.    1st team VHSK All State Class 4 2018 as a junior.
  • Brooks Mazey, 2B Deep Run HS. 1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ahmaad Goldson, Util Menchville HS.  1st team VHSL class 5 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Ethan Iannuzzi, OF Cosby.   1st team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Zane Eggleston, RHP Manchester.  2nd team VHSL class 6 all-state in 2018 as Junior.
  • Tanner Barrs, RHP Abingdon HS.  1st team VHSL Class 3 all-state 2018 as junior.

Sources used

2019 Draft coverage; Mock Draft mania plus my projected top-5 and Nats picks

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mlbdraft2019

I began this post the day after the 2018 draft, when the first “way too early” mock draft came out on MLBpipeline.  So its exactly 364 days in the making.

For a preview of the names you see below, see a previous post that talks about all the marquee names with some stats:

2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects


 

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5 prediction: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene

Who are the Nats going to take at #17:

So, looking at all of the mock drafts, and listening/reading your typical draft pundits, here’s some information on this year’s draft:

  • Its a relatively weak draft compared to recent memory.
  • Its very weak on college pitching
  • Its thus heavier on college and prep bats, which most pundits are predicting will at be at least the top 6 picks.

Meanwhile … the Nats are generally a team that very heavily focuses on college pitching in drafts, and who generally looks for “famous” names in the 1st who may have dropped slightly due to signability or injury, looking for “value.”  This was the case with Mason Denaburg in 2018 (was a top 10 prospect, had biceps issue, dropped), the case with Seth Romero (was a top prospect before getting kicked off his college team in 2017),  the case with Jesus Luzardo in 2016 (he had TJ surgery ahead of the draft), definitely the case with Erick Fedde in 2014, etc.  So, it should be an interesting draft to follow.

The Nats have the

  • #17 pick in the first draft
  • lost their 2nd rounder to the Patrick Corbin signing (would have been 57th overall)
  • 94th in the 3rd round
  • 124th in the 4th round
  • 139th in the 4th round comp round (compensation for Bryce Harper)
  • Lost their 5th rounder, also for the Corbin signing (they lost 2 picks thanks to screwing up the salary cap in 2018 for the 2nd year running)
  • then pick 214th and every 30 picks there after.

The lack of a 2nd rounder really means they have to hit on their 1st this year.  So, who do Mock drafters generally have the Nats picking?  You generally see draft pundits with the Nats picking one of these names:

  • Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor.  This fits the Nats M.O. of picking better players who have dropped slightly in the 1st due to injury.  Langeliers broke a hamate bone this year, which has hampered his offense and dropped him.  This would be a classic Nats 1st round pick.
  • Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS, rated as one of the best (if not the best) prep RHP in the draft.  Committed to Florida, apparently has huge bonus demands.
  • Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.

I’ve also seen some mocks with the Nats taking George Kirby, Kameron Misner, Brett Bady.  But i’d bet its one of these three above names.

My prediction: Every mock draft pundit for the last week or so has the Nats taking Allan and spending the money.  Its looking more and more that the type of college bat that the Nats would normally take (Langeliers, Jung, Misner) are going to be gone … so i’m betting the Nats stake the entire 2019 draft on Allan.

 


Here’s the Mock draft collection.  I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #17 (if they project out that far).  this year i’m ordering them Chronologically as rec’d instead of grouping by pundit…. this should let us see kind of an evolution of the top of the draft.

  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): way-too-early-Mock-Draft June 2018: Witt, Rutschman, Barco, Langeliers, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): Dec 2018 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Jung, Stinson.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): Apr 2019 Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Shea Langeliers, C from Baylor and #2 C prospect in the draft
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/2/19 Mock v5.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn,  Greene, Bleday.  Nats on Quinn Priester, prep RHP from Cary, IL.  Helium arm.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): Apr 2019 v1.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/3/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on George Kirby, rhp from Elon.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris/Burke Granger); 5/5/2019 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Nats on Matt Allan, prep RHSP from Florida HS.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Mock Draft 5/6/19: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Greene, Abrams.  Nats on Kameron Misner, toolsy Missouri OF.
  • ESPN (Keith Law) May 2019 v1.0:  Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Langeliers, under the theory that he’s a -pick who has dropped due to his hand injury.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) v1.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.  Only projecting top 10.
  • Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen/Kiley McDaniel): v2.0 May 2019 mockRutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillipsv2.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Bleday.   No change in top 5 since his previous mock.   Nats on Langeliers like everyone else.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel Reuter) May 2019 mock: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Priester.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/14/19 Mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Langeliers.
  • MLBPipeline (Jim Callis): 5/17/19 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Jung.
  • MyMLBDraft.com (? pundit): 5/22/19 Mock draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrahms, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 5/23/19 Mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Greene.  Nats on Josh Jung, 3B from Texas Tech who has been on draft radars for a while.
  • PerfectGame.org (Brian Sakowski): Mock Draft v3.0 5/23/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrahms, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Kirby.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/24/19 Mock Draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Brett Bady, prep 3B from Texas HS.
  • ESPN (Keith LawMay 28 2019 v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • BleacherReport.com (Joel ReuterMay 2019 mock v2.0: Rutschman, Witt, Bleday, Vaughn, Abrams.  Nats on Jung.
  • Video Baseball Scout (Benjamin Chase): May v8.9 mock draft: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Gunnar Henderson, prep SS from Alabama HS.
  • The Athletic Staff (beat reporters collectively): May 2019 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Misner.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 5/29/19 Mock v3.0: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats still on Langeliers.
  • The Athletic (Melissa Lockhard) 5/29/19 Mock Draft: Rutchman, Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • Baseball America (Carlos Collazo): 5/31/19 Mock Draft v9.0; Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Zack Thompson, LHP from Kentucky with some medical issues.
  • Beyond the Box Score (Daniel Epstein): 6/1/19 Aggregate Mock Draft (an analysis/aggregate of other mocks): Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, Bleday.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillipsv3.0 May 2019: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo): 6/3/19 day-of Mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • ESPN (Keith Law): 6/3/19 day-of final mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan; it really seems like Allan is going to be the pick here.
  • CBSsports (Mike Axisa) Final Mock Draft 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Abrams, Bleday, Vaughn.  Nats on Allan too.
  • Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel/Eric Longenhagen): 6/3/19 Morning of Mock v4.0: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • TheBigLead.com (Ryan Phillips) 6/3/19 last chance mock: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.
  • 20/80 baseball (Nick Faleris); draft day mock 6/3/19: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.  Nats on Allan.

 

Mock draft posters from past years who didn’t seem to do one this year.:

  • D1Baseball (Frankie Piliere); took a job with Seattle, no longer at d1baseball.
  • HeroSports.com (Christopher Crawford); moved to nbcsports/roto world, unclear if still doing draft work.
  • MinorleagueBall.com (John Sickels); moved to TheAthletic, site seems dead.
  • SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.
  • Baseball America (John Manuel): seems to have passed the torch at BA to Reuter.
  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com: main writer left to form Video Baseball Scout.
  • Prospect Digest (Joseph Werner); just draft profiles for 2019, no mocks/ranks.
  • Sporting News: can’t find content.

 

Draft Rankings: these are prospect ranking lists, NOT mock drafts.

Past prospect rankers that have issues this year 2019.

  • Baseball Draft Report (Rob Ozga); Last post was Sept 2018; out of business?
  • Video Baseball Scout; Mocks, no rankings.
  • The Athletic: no content this year.
  • MinorLeagueBall.com Draft Prospect list: didn’t do one this year, just individual profiles.
  • PerfectGame 2019 Draft Rankings database/top 600 players (mostly behind a paywall)

 


ACTUAL TOP 5 DRAFT Results (added after the draft): went almost entirely chalk to latest mocks: Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday, Greene.

Actual Nats #17 Pick (added after the draft): Jackson Rutledge, RHP from Texas Juco.  See separate post on him.


 

 

 

2019 Draft coverage; Overview of top Draft prospects

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Rutschman is the clear 1-1 favorite. Photo via oregonlive.com

Rutschman is the clear 1-1 favorite. Photo via oregonlive.com

This is a review of the marquee names that have been in discussion for the top-end of the 1st round for the 2019 draft.  Since (especially high schoolers) guys constantly are moving up or down draft boards, each section is divided into two areas: those 4-5 names really in talks to go 1-1 overall (“1-1” means 1st round, 1st overall) and then those who have fallen to “just” being 1st or 2nd rounders.

By now, the top of the draft seems settled, but this post contains a slew of names that were once talked about as “top of the draft” talents but who have slipped.  Most of these names are back part of the 1st round/2nd rounders now, with some dropping to the point that they’ll honor college commitments and thus be 35th-40th rounders instead.

We’ll follow this up with a mock draft collection tomorrow; this is a good reference point for the names you’re going to hear day-1 of the draft.


 

College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

  • Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State.  Switch-hitting Middle of the Order bat for the 2018 team, powered them to the CWS.  2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 (behind Joey Bart).  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.  Clear consensus 1-1 heading into 2019 spring season, and has stayed there, being almost guaranteed to go 1-1.
  • Andrew Vaughn, 1B California.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, 2018 Golden spikes winner as a Sophomore.  Best  hitter in class.  Seems guaranteed to go in the 2-4 range.
  • Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian.  Supplemental 1st rounder in 2016 out of HS, 2017 freshman AA 1st or 2nd team.  3 year starter for TCU.  Mid-90s FB from left hand side.  #1 college arm, seems likely to go in the 6-8 range.
  • Alek Manoah, RHP West Virginia.  Huge 2018 Cape season vaulted into 1st round territory, huge guy with big arm.  Now #2 college arm in draft, perhaps #1 b/c of durability.  Likely going in the 6-8 range.
  • JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt.  Solid 2018 in Cape, rising star, corner OF.  Leading power hitter in d1baseball, has pushed his way into the top 5 discussion.

College Candidates who have fallen out of  1-1 contention

  • Jackson Rutledge, RHP San Jacinto JC.  Xfer out of 4-yr program (Arkansas) to become 2019 draft eligible.  Hits 97 from deceptive slot, could be sneaky 1st rounder, now mentioned as a top 10 pick.
  • Josh Jung, 3B Texas Tech.  3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, nearly hit .400 sophomore year, can also play OF.
  • Bryson Stott, SS UNLV.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, staying at SS.
  • Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky; 2017 freshman All-American (2nd team d1baseball fresh AA in 2017).  Some elbow injury issues, but pitched well for team USA in 2018.
  • Hunter Bishop, OF Arizona State: helium 2019 guy, found power.
  • Michael Busch, 1B UNC.
  • Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri.  injured in 2018, true CF.
  • Graeme Stinson, LHP Duke.  big lefty, can be dominant, could be fast riser.
  • Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, performed well.  Still looks like top-10 pick b/c of position, but broke Hamate bone spr19.  Lots of pundits have him pegged as the Nats #1 pick.
  • Will Holland, SS Auburn.
  • Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Miss.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.   Also pitches for Southern Miss; is their closer with upper 90s FB.
  • Logan Davidson, SS Clemson.  Combo of power and defensive ability to stick at SS.
  • Andrew Pallante, RHP for UC-Irvine.  2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a sophomore.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team
  • Bryant Packard, OF ECU.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Kyle Brnovich, RHP Elon.  1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team.
  • Jack Little, RHP (closer) from Stanford.   1st Team AA PG/Rawlings 2018.  1st team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Chase Strumpf, 2B UCLA.   2nd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 (behind Kody Clemens).  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Sean Mooney, RHP St. Johns.  3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.
  • Grant Little, OF Texas Tech.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as sophomore.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Parker Caracci, RHP Ole Miss.  2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.
  • Zack Hess, RHP LSU via LCA in Lynchburg VA.  2018 USA Collegiate National Team, but really struggling as a starter, may be pushed down several rounds.
  • Mike Toglia, OF UCLA.
  • Carter Stewart, RHP Fla JuCo.  9th overall pick out of HS in 2018 enrolled in Juco, but stuff has faltered, costing him draft position in 2019.   Recently signed a pro contract in Japan, and no longer eligible in the draft.

High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.   3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  Son of Bobby Witt.  Oklahoma commit.  East Cobb Sox summer team.  At TOS 2018.  1st team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.  Likely going 2nd overall.
  • C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (Alpharetta, Ga.) PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  Alabama commit.  At TOS 2018.  Likely going in the 4-6 range.
  • Matthew Allan, RHP Seminole HS (Fla).  Evoshield Canes national team, PG underclassman AA all three years eligible.  Florida commit.  93-97 spring 19, rising up.  Top prep arm in draft?   Huge bonus demands may cause him to drop.
  • Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Oviedo, Fla.).  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Florida commit.  At TOS 2018.  Best HS hitter in class?

High School guys in the 1st couple rounds:

  • Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary, Ill.  HS.  TCU commit.  91-93 on the mound.
  • Brett Baty, Inf from Lake Austin HS (Tex.).  Gatorade Texas state POTY as a junior in 2018, 1st team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.
  • Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside School (Seattle).  Helium guy summer 2018, smaller guy.  Canes summer team, UCLA commit.  Athletic guy, may be interesting argument.
  • Brennan Malone, RHP Matthews (NC) HS.   PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  Up to 95 as 17yr old.  UNC commit.  At TOS 2018, hitting 97 now.
  • Rece Hinds, SS/3B, Niceville (Fla.) HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.   2nd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  LSU commit.  Big power guy.
  • Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (Statesboro, Ga.).  Helium guy summer 2018, up to 99 at events.  LSU commit.  Possible mechanics issues.
  • Jack Leiter, RHP NJ HS.  Son of Al Leiter, Vanderbilt commit, may be 4th best prep arm but will cost $$ to buy him out of Vanderbilt commitment.
  • Matthew Thompson, RHP Cyprus Ranch (Tex) HS.  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  TAMU commit.  Evoshield Canes National summer team.  At TOS 2018.
  • JJ Goss, RHP Cypress Ranch HS (Houston, TX).  Rising fast.
  • Hunter Barco, LHP, The Bolles School (Jacksonville, Fla.).  PG underclassman All-American as both soph and jr.  UVA verbal commit.  East Cobb Astros summer team.  At TOS 2018.  polarizing prospect, some love him, some hat him.
  • Jerrian Ealy, OF Jackson Prep (Miss.) HS.  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Ole Miss commit.  At TOS 2018.  2-way star, playing both Football and Baseball at Ole Miss.
  • Wesley Scott, RHP Woodcrest Christian (Cal.) HS.  Vanderbilt commit.  95 as a junior.
  • Sam Hliboki, RHP from Harvard-Westlake HS (Cal.).  2nd team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior.
  • Logan Britt, OF All Saints Episcopal High School (Tex.)  TAMU commit.
  • Connor Phillips RHP Magnolia West High School (Tex).  LSU commit.
  • Matt McCormick, C St. Laurence (Burbank, Ill.).  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   West Virginia commit.  2nd team Max Preps all-american in 2018 as a junior
  • Joseph Charles, RHP The First Academy (Fla.) HS.  UNC Commit.  94 as a junior.
  • Nolan Hudi, LHP Calvary Christian (Clearwater, Fla.).  1st Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.  TCU commit.
  • Geoffrey Gilbert, LHP Bishop England (Charleston, S.C.).  3rd Team USA today HS AA as a junior in 2018.   Clemson commit.
  • Carter Young, SS/2B Selah, Was.  At TOS 2018.
  • Jonathan French, C Parkview GA.  At TOS 2018.
  • GlenAllen  Hill Jr., OF Santa Cruz, Calif.  At TOS 2018.
  • Sam Ireland, SS from Mountain Vista HS (Col.).  State POTY for several publications in 2018 as a junior, 2nd team Max Preps AA.

 


 

Sources used to create this list

Stewart to do end-around of MLB Draft; brilliant!

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Carter Stewart is going to be a heck of a trail blazer. photo via PerfectGame

Carter Stewart is going to be a heck of a trail blazer. photo via PerfectGame

(tangent from our Nats miseries; yes we just got swept in NY, yes our manager needs to be whacked, yes the team is in serious trouble for 2019.  We’ll talk about it more next week).

Here’s a quick story about Carter Stewart.

He was a top prep player last spring, recording the highest spin rate *ever recorded* on his curve ball.  He was the 9th overall pick of the 2018 draft, couldn’t come to an agreement with the Braves over medicals (not related to his elbow or shoulder fyi .. they were related to MRIs of his wrist, stemming from a skateboarding injury apparently incurred when Stewart was a kid), didn’t sign, bailed out of his 4-yr college commitment to Mississippi State, enrolled in a Florida JuCo so he could do one-and-done in college and re-enter the 2019 draft, played this spring and didn’t wow the scouts (despite sterling statistics) and saw his draft projection (and thus his bonus) fall to perhaps an early 2nd round status.

So what is he doing?  He’s doing what Scott Boras  has dreamed of for two decades representing (ahem, “advising”) amateur players: he’s doing an end-around on the MLB draft.  Stewart announced that he’s opting out of the MLB draft, and signing a 6yr, $7M deal in Japan.

And its a brilliant plan.

Here’s how the numbers work.  Lets say that, for sake of argument, Steward got drafted in 2019, signed for $2M (a stretch frankly, but useful for this conversation).  Here’s likely how the next 6-10 years of his life would go:

  • 2019: signs, $2M bonus.  Barely plays, since most prep pitchers spend their draft year in XST learning how to be a pro.
  • 2020: XST and then GCL time as a minor leaguer earning $1200/month for 6 months.  Call it $10,000 in total salary for ease of calculation.
  • 2021: pitches full season in Low-A as a 21-yr old.  Another $10k in salary
  • 2022: moves up to high-A.  Maybe we’ll even give him AA.  10k in salary
  • 2023.  He’s not breaking camp with the team, even if he merits a rotation spot .. so he starts in AAA for a few weeks, then moves up and basically earns a full MLB pre-arb salary of $575k.
  • 2024: 600k as a 24yr old, 2nd year pre-arb; he earns a small raise

Total earnings through 6 years of service: $2m + 30k + 575k + 600k = $3,205,000 total pay.

So, now he’s through 6 pro seasons, he’s at the end of his age 24 season and he’s got two full years of MLB experience after 4 minor league seasons … and he’s facing another two full pre-arb seasons thanks to service time manipulation in 2023 (which everybody does), taking  him through 2026/age 26, then 3 years of arbitration that limits his salary drastically versus what he’s worth on the open market … and he hits FA in 2029 after 10 years of team control … possibly with a Qualifying Offer tagged to him (unless they CBA it out of existence).

INSTEAD, he signs a $6M deal to go to Japan for those same 6 years, nearly doubles his potential pay, gets legitimate pro experience, and comes out of his experience as a completely free 25yr old.   Oh, and if he hits incentives he can actually triple that $6M pay.  If he had played by the rules of the MLB system at the end of 2024, he’d still be facing another FIVE seasons of artificially limited pay.

Oh, and if he burns out (like a lot of HS arms) and never gets to the majors … he’s got basically 3 TIMES the pay versus his projected bonus.

It makes one wonder; why hasn’t this happened before??  This is a complete no-brainer plan for huge chunks of pro prospects.  If you’re a college-aged top 5 pick making $4-$5M of bonus and perhaps facing just a year and a half in the minors, no.  But consider what Mason Denaburg is now facing (our first round pick out of HS last  year).  He signed last year for $3M … and has YET TO PITCH for our organization now a 1/3rd of the way through his 2nd pro  season and still hasn’t been assigned.   Unless Denaburg is the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, he’s going to spend a good chunk of the next  3 years in the low minors, earning less in a month than major leaguers earn in a day.

The downside to this is, of course, a 19yr old kid from Florida has to go halfway around the world to a culture and a language he doesn’t know.  Sounds daunting … except for the fact that MLB basically has half its minor leagues in the same position, importing non-english speaking talent from the DR, Venezuela, Mexico, etc as well as a slew of other international players who end up here w/o knowing our culture or language.  It isn’t the end of the world.

Honestly … I hope he blazes a path towards forcing MLB to take a pretty hard look at its entire draft and pay structure, which is incredibly tilted towards the owners as the MLBPA has failed for more than 2 decades now to stem the tide of owners chipping away at younger players salaries and earning possibilities.  And, given the embarrassment baseball  (and Oakland) just went through having their 2018 1st rounder Kyle Murray very publicly reject a $4M+ bonus amount and a guaranteed contract offer (specifically outlawed in the last CBA but offered here) so as to go pro in the NFL … it makes you wonder if there’s a need for a revamping of the system.

I hope this isn’t a one-off; I hope Stewart succeeds in Japan and makes a mint coming back to the US as a top-line 25-yr old un-encumbered free agent.  Because that might really spur some change.

Written by Todd Boss

May 24th, 2019 at 9:21 am