Nationals Arm Race

The third of the “big 3” scouting/prospect ranking shops (BA, Fangraphs, and MLBpipeline) updated and published its system top 30s this week, so following on similar analysis with the other two shops published, I thought i’d put out a review. So, here’s a look at how Mayo/Callis and the team at the MLB Pipeline shop viewed our draft haul, along with some tweaks they made while they had our system cracked open this month.

Click here for the updated list. Top 30+ list is in a table below.

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
5	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
6	Landon	Harmon	RHP
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF
9	Coy	James	SS
10	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
11	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
12	Caleb	Lomavita	C
13	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
14	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
15	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
16	Sean Paul	Linan	RHP (Starter)
17	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP
18	Ronny	Cruz	SS
19	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
20	Yohandy	Morales	3B
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
23	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
24	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
25	Daniel	Hernandez	C
26	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
27	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
28	Marconi	German	SS
29	Randall	Josh	RHP (Starter)
30	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
31	Victor	Hurtado	OF
32	Beeter	Clayton	RHP (Reliever)
33	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
34	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
35	Kevin	Made	SS
36	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
37	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
38	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
39	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
40	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (reliever)

Wait, you said MLB top 30; why are there 40 names on this list? Well, because between the draft and the trade deadline we managed to add 10 players to our top 30 list (plus an 11th who now sits in the mid 30s), and I just tacked on the next 10 players who used to be ranked a month ago to get our “top 40” instead of the top 30.

I suppose the biggest point here is this: we added 10-11 names to our top 30 prospect list within a couple weeks of each other, replacing 7-8 names who we’ve graduated this year, which is great news. Not all of these guys are going to pan out, but they’re ranked higher than the names we used to have in these spots for exactly one reason: they’re better players. If we “hit” on these 2025 draft picks in particular, we may be sitting pretty at some point soon.

The MLBpipeline team didn’t do a ton of fiddling around with the existing players ranked in the top 20 (so, for example, no dropping Sykora based on new TJ news), but in the 20-30 range we did see some movement up or down, which I’ll highlight below.

So, here’s some commentary, mostly on the 10-11 new guys:

• First, a quick overview of the prospects who have graduated this year: in rough order of where they were ranked: Crews, House, Lile, Lord, Henry, Rutledge. And we’re darn close on Hassell and Ribalta. So, not a bad year for “using” the farm system.
• Willits enters our system as its #1 ranked prospect, immediately supplanting both Sykora and Susana. Would I have ranked him above a healthy Sykora? No. But this is pretty consistent with where other shops are putting Willits. Fangraphs had him below both Sykora and Susana, others all have him starting #1 for us.
• Here’s where Willits is being ranked in the entire minors before he plays a game: MLBPipeline #18, Baseball America #30, Fangraphs #44, Keith Law #48. So, yeah this is a big-time prospect.
• 2025 Draftees Harmon (3rd rounder), Petry (2nd rounder) and James (5th rounder) all pop into our top 10 list as a starting point. This is more aggressive than where BA or Fangraphs put these other three guys. The final 2025 draftee getting a $2M bonus was NYC hurler Sime, coming in at #17.
• Our Trade deadline netted us 10 prospects, six of which appear in the top 30-35 range on MLB’s list. The highest ranking is AAA OF Christian Franklin, who comes in at #14 in the system.
• Linan, Cruz, and Swan all pop in to our rankings in the 16-19 range as a starter.
• Kent got moved up roughly 8 spots in the new rankings, a nod to his decent pro debut in High-A.
• The team moved up Brayan Cortesia a few spots to account for his .327/.447/.374 line in the DSL as of this writing.
• Sam Peterson is starting to get some notice, sitting #26 now, but with the influx of players below him this indicates a roughly 12-13 spot rise this year.
• Vaquero’s .914 OPS month has bought him some prospect love: he still sits in the low 20s but has maintained that spot with all the acquisitions.
• A debut for DSL star Marconi German, who has 8 homers and 26 SBs in 47 DSL games this year.
• Tyler Stuart takes a dive; he was #15 a few weeks ago, got TJ surgery, now he’s #30.

In the 31-40 range i just tacked on players who were in the top 30 before all the trade and draft acquisitions, but who are now moved out. Here’s some notables:

• Hurtado now at #31; the $2.8M signing is being outshined by Marconi and Cortesia as he repeats DSL.
• the final trade acquisition who was ranked at all is Better, showing up now at #32 after getting pushed down by our 5 draftees.
• Cayden Wallace, who I ranked #7 pre-season, now is #33 on this list. Phew.
• Kevin Bazzell, who we drafted last year to some promise, has done so little this year that he’s now out of the top 30.
• Elijah Green now sits at #38 on this list.
• Is Andrew Pinckney “only” the 39th best prospect in the system? A 24yr old in his second AAA season, who can play CF and might finish the season with 20 homers? What am I missing here?

I had a great idea this draft cycle. How do we tell which mock draft pundits actually do the best job of predicting the draft? Since I’ve got such hyper coverage of the draft going back a few years, this post circles back to the past few drafts, posts the actual top five players picked, then posts the final mock draft predicted top 5 from major pundits to see who is getting these things right. For the most part I have the same 8 pundits who do mocks going back to 2020.

I’ll include links to past content from this blog, which generally had links to the mock drafts leading up all the way to draft day. In each section there’s:

• Actual Draft top 5 link, which goes to baseball-reference.com’s draft database for that year.
• The Major Pundit final mock post here on nationalsarmrace.com from the day of the draft.
• Then, pundit by pundit a direct link to their final mocks published.

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2025 Draft: Actual top 5: Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle

Major Pundit final mocks

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Hernandez, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Baseball America Staff. Final Mock 7.0 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: Mock 3.0 7/10/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 2025 Mock 7/13/25: Willits, Doyle, Holliday, Anderson, Carlson (4/5)
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports First Round Prediction 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Irish, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• BleacherReport/Reuter: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday Willits (4/5)
• Prospects 1500: Final Mock 7/13/25: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
• Prospects Live Final Mock 7/12/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Arnold (3/5)
• Baseball Prospect Journal: Mock 4.0 7/20/25: Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)

What Happened? Well, the ONLY pundit to have the Nats taking Willits 1-1 in the end was Longenhagen, but then the rest of his top 5 was way off. Willits was in nearly everyone’s top 5, but primarily going 5th to the Cards. Mostly everyone had Holliday-Colorado, but Bremner at #2 was a massive shock. The Nats parting ways with their GM a week before the draft seemed to grease the skids to go with youth versus polish, and hence the near consensus 1-1 Anderson slipped to the Mariners, who were probably shocked and ecstatic at the development. Guys frequently mentioned in the top5 all spring who slipped out: Arquette slipped to #7, Hernandez to #6, and Arnold all the way to the Athletics at #11.

Who was Closest? Longenhagen the only one to get Willits right. Most of the pundits got 4 of the top 5 right ultimately, but not in the correct order. Nobody had Bremner in the top 5.

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2024 Draft: Actual top 5: Bazzana, Burns, Condon, Kurtz, Hagen Smith.

Major Pundit final mocks:

• The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/14: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Griffin (3/5)
• MLBpipeline/Mayo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Montgomery (3/5)
• Baseball America/Collazo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone (3/5)
• ESPN/KIley McDaniel Final Mock 3.1 7/14/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Wetherholt, Caglianone (3/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
• CBSsports/Mike Axisa: Final Mock 7/14/25: Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Montgomery, Caglianone (3/5)
• BleacherReport/Reuter final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)

What happened? Bazzana surprised many and took a haircut off the 1-1 draft slot, but word had gotten out by draft day so the best connected pundits knew. Everyone had Condon & Burns , though not in the right order. Oakland at #4 was “on” Kurtz for a while, then the industry thought they backed off, but they picked him anyway, and nobody had him in their mocks. The joke is on the industry; Kurtz is destroying MLB pitching this year for the Athletics and had a famous 4-home run game a few weeks ago. Lastly the Smith pick was a shock to everyone. Montgomery and his broken leg was in most people’s top 3; he ended up slipping past the Nats to #12.

Who was Closest? So, most everyone got 3 out of 5, with nearly everyone having the same three names at the top. Props to those who didn’t have Wetherholt going 1-1 as the “winners” of this mock draft cycle.

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2023 Draft: Actual top 5: Skenes, Crews, Clark, Langford, Jenkins.

Major Pundit final mocks (I did not do a mock draft collection in 2023)

• The Athletic/Keith Law Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
• MLBpipeline/Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• Baseball America/Carlos Collazo final Mock 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
• ESPN/KIley McDaniel final mock v3.1 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen mock v2.0 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Jenkins, Clark (5/5)
• CBSsports/Mike Axisa: final mock 7/9/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark, Teel (4/5)
• BleacherReport/Joel Reuter final mock 7/8/23: Skenes, Crews, Langford, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)

What happened? The industry was convinced that the cheapskate Pirates were shying away from bonus demands from Crews/Boras and wanted a bat over an arm, leading them to Langford. Instead, on draft day Pittsburgh stayed true to their board and took the consensus 1-1 pick in Skenes, which then cascaded Crews to us at #2. Langford blew through the minors and looked like a steal for Texas as #4.

Who was Closest? Several pundits got the top 5 right, but only Bleacher Report had Skenes correctly going 1-1. Interestingly, the player most missed with (Gonzalez) fell to 15th in the draft (??), a weird set of events.

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2022 Draft: Actual top 5: Holliday, Jones, Rocker, Johnson, Green

Major Pundit final mocks

• Keith Law final mock 7/16/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)
• MLBpipeline Callis final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Nats take Parada (4/5)
• MLBpipeline Mayo final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Lee. (3/5)
• Baseball America: Final Mock 7/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Green. (4/5)
• ESPN McDaniel mock 3.0 7/15/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, Nats take Berry. (2/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen: mock 7/17/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Neto, Nats take Parada (3/5)
• CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, Nats take Green (4/5)
• Bleacher Report/Reuter: 7/16/22 final mock: Jones, Holliday, Johnson, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)

What happened? Most of the pundits got this relatively close, though there was a lot of mention of Kevin Parada in the top 5 (he ended up going 11th). Everyone had Holliday-Jones going 1-2. Some had Brooks Lee or Cam Collier in the top 5: Lee slipped to 8th while Collier went 18th (how do you go from a top 5 pick to 18th?)

Who was Closest? Baseball America was probably the closest here, getting four of the top 5, correctly predicting 1-2, and getting the Nats’ Green pick.

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2021 Draft: Actual top 5: Davis, Leiter, Jobe, Mayer, Cowser. Nats at 11 get House.

Major Pundit final mocks

• The Atlantic (Keith Law) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, Watson. Nats land Jobe (3/5)
• MLBPipeline (Callis) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Bednar. (4/5)
• MLBPipeline (Mayo) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Watson. Nats get Madden (3/5)
• Baseball America v7.0 day of: Mayer, Watson, Jobe, Leiter, Lawlar. Nats take Madden (3/5)
• ESPN/McDaniel: 7/11/21 mock: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Madden (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen day-of Mock 3.0: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Lawlar. Nats go Madden (4/5)
• CBSsports (Axisa) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Lawlar, House, Leiter, Davis. Nats take Jobe (3/5)
• Bleacher Report (Reuter) mock 7/11/21: Meyer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Cowser. Nats Madden (3/5)

What happened? Pittsburgh got a big haircut off of Henry Davis at 1-1, which threw off everyone’s mock draft. Then, Rocker inexplicably slipped to #11 and the Mets, where he infamously didn’t sign due to arguments about medicals. For whatever reason, House slipped all the way to the Nats at #11 and we nabbed him, in a series of moves similar to the Rendon draft. Ty Madden, who many of the pundits had the Nats taking at #11, didn’t go until the 32nd overall pick and just made his MLB debut.

Who was Closest? Jim Callis, Longenhagen and McDaniel hit on their first four picks, just getting them in the wrong order. Props to Reuter for being the only one to mention Cowser who goes 5th

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2020 Draft: Actual top 5: Torkelson, Kierstad, Meyer, Lacy, Martin. Nats at #22 get Cavalli.

Major Pundit final mocks

• The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/10/20 Final Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• MLBpipeline (Jim Callis) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
• MLBpipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
• Baseball America (Collazo) 6/10/20 final Mock Draft v8.0 ; Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer (4/5)
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock 3.0 6/10/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/9/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  (3/5)
• Bleacher Report (Reuter): 6/10/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)

What happened? In the weird Covid year, most all the pundits were really “on” this draft, getting 4 of the top 5 correct. Everyone missed on the Orioles taking Kierstad at #2 and for good reason: He took $1.5M or so off his asking price, a deal no one could have known about.

Who was Closest? Nearly all our major pundits got 4 of 5 this year.

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Final scores? Adding up top-5 performance for the last six drafts:

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 20/30.
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 24/30
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 21/30
• Baseball America/Collazo 23/30
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: 21/30
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 23/30
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports 21/30
• BleacherReport/Reuter: 21/30

So there you have it: Jim Callis is the best, closely followed by the BA’s Collazo and Fangraphs Longenhagen. Keith Law brings up the rear, having missed out on one fewer top-5 pick than the collection of Mayo, Axisa, and Reuter. Of course, it bears noting that the entire spread is 4 picks across 6 drafts, so maybe this isn’t as conclusive as I’m making it sound 🙂

With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.

For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.

Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.

The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.

2012:

• Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
• Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.

2013:

• David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
• Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
• Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.

2014:

• Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.

2015:

• David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
• Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.

2016:

• Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
• Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.

2017:

• Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.

2018:

• Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
• Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
• Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.

2019:

• Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.

2020:

• Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.

2021:

• None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.

2022:

• Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.

2023:

Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.

• Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
• Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
• Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
• Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
• Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).

2024:

The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?

• Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
• Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.

2025:

Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.

• Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
• Julian Tonghini, RHP from Arizona $10k
• Riley Maddox, RHP from Ole Miss $10k
• Wyatt Henseler, 2B/3b from TAMU $10k
• Hunter Hines, 1B from Miss State $5k

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So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.

The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.

It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.

BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.

Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
8	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF
9	Coy	James	SS
10	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
11	Seaver	King	SS
12	Caleb	Lomavita	C
13	Landon	Harmon	RHP
14	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
15	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
16	Yohandy	Morales	3B
17	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
18	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
19	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP
20	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Daniel	Hernandez	C
23	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
24	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
25	Garcia	Davian	RHP (Starter)
26	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
27	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
28	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
29	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
30	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
31	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
32	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
33	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
34	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
35	Robert	Cranz	RHP (Reliever)

Now for some observations and commentary.

Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.

• Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
• 2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
• The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
• Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.

Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:

• Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
• All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
• Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
• Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
• Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
• Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
• Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
• The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
• Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.

Who’s missing?

• We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
• No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
• No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
• Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
• No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
• No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).

Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?

So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.

If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).

Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.

• 2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.

• 2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.

Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“

• 2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“

• 2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.

Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“

• 2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.

Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“

• 2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.

Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“

• 2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.

Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics.  I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“

• 2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.

Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“

• 2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”

• 2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“

• 2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.

• 2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.

Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels.  It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“

• 2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.

• 2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1.  As was Purke.  As was Rendon.  All three fell because of injury concerns.  So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk.  But all three within two draft classes?“

• 2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.

Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us.  I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“

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I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂

So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.

I seemed to like:

• Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews

I was lukewarm on:

• Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits

And I disliked:

• Fedde, Romero

So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.

With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.

Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

Other useful tools while evaluating these guys:

• MLB 2025 Combine Attendees:
• D1baseball Transfer Portal at d1baseball.com, also same at Baseball America, both paywall

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• 11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler

Ranks by major shops: BA=398

Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.

11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.

• 12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion

Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243

A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.

• 13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville

Ranks: BA=347

Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.

• 14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB

Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.

• 15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon

Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.

• 16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt

Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.

• 17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State

Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.

• 18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International

Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.

• 19th Round: #561: Mason Pike Prep HS RHP/SS from Puyallup HS (WA)

Ranks: MLB=135, BA=68.

So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.

• 20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University

BA ranked 474

Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.

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So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.

I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.

We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

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• 1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.

Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3

As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.

• 2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina

Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75

Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.

• 3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)

Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76

Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.

• 4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)

Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr

Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.

• 5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)

Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69

He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.

• 6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
• 7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
• 8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
• 9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
• 10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.

Ranks by major shops: none

So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.

Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.

That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:

• Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
• Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
• Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
• Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
• Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
• Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
• Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.

So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.

• Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
• Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
• James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.

Something like this.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.

Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.

To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.

The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.

My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.

Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.

Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.

Here’s the very last post I’ll do on 1-1 predictions for this Draft season. I’ll include all the “final” mocks for our various favorite pundits, probably will have to add in more post-publishing, and will make a final prediction on the top 5.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board. updated 6/27/25
• Baseball America top 500 Board updated 6/25/25 (paywall)
• Keith Law top 100 Draft board, updated 7/1/25 (paywall I think)
• CBS Sports/RJ Anderson Top 30 Board 6/12/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)
• ESPN Full Draft coverage Home page, including links to all mocks, boards, etc.

Final Mocks from our favorite pundits:

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Hernandez, Arquette, Holliday, Willits.
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Baseball America Staff. Final Mock 7.0 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 2025 Mock Draft 7/13/25: Willits, Doyle, Holliday, Anderson, Carlson
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: Mock 3.0 7/10/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• RJ Anderson/CBSSports (didn’t see one)
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports First Round Prediction 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Irish, Holliday, Willits
• Prospects 1500: Final Mock 7/13/25: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Prospects Live Final Mock 7/12/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Arnold
• Baseball Prospect Journal: Mock 4.0 7/20/25: Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
• D1Baseball/Prep Experts Mock: paywall
• Baseball Prospectus: paywall

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My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Anderson, as does the rest of the industry. My final prediction:

• Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

Post publishing Actual top 5 picks

ACTUAL PICKS post mocks: shockers and surprises. Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle.

Almost nobody got it right: only Longenhagen, who was one of the last people to publish, got Willits right amongst the major shops. Bravo.

There’s no more games to play, no more box scores to hyper analyze. All we have now is a series of scouting/draft pundits calling sources and writing prediction pieces.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board. updated 6/27/25
• Baseball America top 500 Board updated 6/25/25 (paywall)
• Keith Law top 100 Draft board, updated 7/1/25 (paywall I think)
• CBS Sports/RJ Anderson Top 30 Board 6/12/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• ESPN Full Draft coverage Home page, including links to all mocks, boards, etc.

Here’s a roundup of draft content I found interesting since the last time we posted, which was right after the CWS ended and we got our last look at potential 1-1 candidate Kade Anderson.

• D1Baseball.com released their 1st, 2nd, 3rd team All-American lists. The 1st team is littered with upper-1st round names we’ve talked about all spring (Anderson, Doyle, Bodine, etc). top 5 pick Arnold didn’t make the 1st team cut, even though he might get drafted ahead of some who did. James Quinn-Irons from George Mason by way of South Lakes HS in Reston was named as a first teamer after slashing .415/.520/.726 for the season; bravo.
• An interesting article in the Athletic on 6/27/25 by Sam Blum about the “fundamental problem” the MLB Draft Combine has, specifically that many of the top players have no incentive to show up. Blum reports from the combine that there’s almost zero scouts there despite hundreds of players doing drills and bp/pitching drills made for scouting opportunities. Why is this? Teams are almost entirely interested in exactly one thing here: MRIs of pitchers. Agents (Scott Boras the leading critic of course) point out that, while teams get MRIs they don’t get analysis, and they fear teams will misinterpret things and suddenly players drop out of the top 10 and out of guaranteed dollars. Fair points all.
• Along with the release of their latest updated Top 250 board, MLBPipeline lists the “best Tools” in the draft. I found the analysis interesting for one reason: while each of the guys who were given “Best Pitch” by pitch type are names we know, Kade Anderson not only didn’t win one of the “best of” titles … he wasn’t even listed amongst those considered for ANY of the categories. Yet he’s the top ranked arm on the board. Meanwhile, they give “best power” to Holliday, over the all-or-nothing LaViolette even and despite him being a prep kid who probably doesn’t completely fill out for years. Something to think about.
• MLBpipeline’s latest mock from Jonathan Mayo came along with all the 6/27/25 content (updated board, top tools, latest Mock). He goes Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. This, by the way, is the exact top 5 I’ve been predicting in the case where Anderson goes 1-1 instead of Holliday.
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel and staff) posted their 6/30/25 mock, which had a slight twist in that they allowed for trading picks AND the pundits pick who they think the teams SHOULD be picking, not who they likely well pick. It’s a subtle but important distinction that led to a slightly different mock look. They went Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, JoJo Parker.
• Baseball America’s v5.0 Mock Draft was released on 6/30/25 with info gleaned from the combine and the end of the college season. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
• MLBPipeline’s 7/1/25 email newsletter (free to subscribe to) had a quick “What if Teams drafted for need” mock, and it looked slightly different than the rest of these mocks: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Doyle. Arquette drops way down this list.
• Keith Law did a 7/2/25 chat (man, remember when everyone did weekly chats??) with a ton of draft questions and a ton of Nats questions about 1-1 in the wake of his updated and final Draft Board post on 7/1/25. Worth a read.
• Baseball Prospect Journal did a staff mock on 7/3/25. I’m still up in the air about this source and its value; is it just a couple of baseball nerds like me, or do they actually have insight? they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits, Arnold. They have Doyle dropping to 8th.
• Obviously, the 7/6/25 news that the Nats have fired Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez looms quite large over the draft preparations the team was making.
• Baseball America held a podcast on 7/7/25 where they did reaction to Rizzo’s firing and its potential impact on the draft. They did mention one interesting tidbit; they said that Rizzo was more old-school than his scouting director and scouting staff, most of whom he hired away from more system-driven teams like Arizona and Baltimore. These guys are going to favor younger and toolsier players than Rizzo might, and it may tip the scale towards Holliday at 1-1.
• Keith Law posted his Mock 3.0 just as I was publishing this post. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, and Willits. This is almost exactly who i’ve got if we go Anderson 1-1.

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My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Holliday

If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:

• Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

If we pick Anderson, I think the top 5 goes like this:

• Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

1. Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
2. Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
3. Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
4. Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
5. St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with Arnold, since it seems clear that Anderson and Arquette will be gone in any scenario. They (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits. If Arnold doesn’t go here, there’s a strong likelihood he drops nearly out of the top 10.