Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for June, 2017

Is this the turning point for the bullpen?

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Is Treinen in danger of a DFA or a demotion? Photo via zimbio.com

Is Treinen in danger of a DFA or a demotion? Photo via zimbio.com

Yes, its one game.  Yes, it was one game in a regular season 162 games long, with a team playing in an abhorrent division that they’ll probably win by 20 games irrespective of what happens.

But, at the same time, last night’s debilitating 6-5 loss, featuring a 3-run ninth from your opening-day closer Blake Treinen seemed different.  Why?  Because it blew a game against a playoff contender, a team that the Nats very well may face in the first round of the playoffs if the season plays out as expected.  Because this wasn’t just a run-of-the-mill regular season game; this was one of those statement series that this team faces where it can measure up against last year’s champion and determine where they stand in the NL pecking order.  The team s hould be walking away with a dominant series win, having outscored the defending WS champs 22-12.  Instead they concede a split series that ended with a ton of frustration.

The loss last night (per Byron Kerr‘s twitter status) now represents the SIXTH time in 79 games this year that the bullpen has blown a 9th inning lead.   That’s only slightly worse (92.5% conversion rate) than historically  is to be expected (about 95% per Joe Posnanski research), but in the era of the closer … you’d expect better results.

The hitters are already grumbling.  As noted in this weeks’ Tom Boswell chat (and subsequently picked up by Craig Calcaterra in Hardball/NBCSports blog), players are getting pretty frustrated that they are beating teams for 8 innings only to lose it in the 9th.  And with good reason; if you’re facing a Cy Young quality pitcher and are in a position to beat him (well, beat his team that day, even if you couldn’t do jack with Jon Lester himself), then you HAVE TO WIN that game.  You can’t have your starters going 120 pitches and trying to pitch complete games every night because you can’t trust a single member of your bullpen.  Hell, they even got a quality start plus from Joe Ross!  You can’t waste those!  Normally Ross needs the offense to score him 12 runs to win.

I saw the result last night and the first thing I thought was, ” I wonder if they’ll DFA Treinen.”   This is the same team that layered Drew Storen after high profile post-season meltdowns; was Ted Lerner in the crowd last night?  What value does Trienen give the team right now?   He’s got a 1.7whip, an ERA north of 6, and clearly can’t be trusted with the ball unless its a low-leverage situation.  I’m sure it won’t actually happen, thanks to the general health meltdown out there and the clear lack of options on the farm.  But at some point, you have to think out side the box.

They were thinking outside the box moving Erick Fedde to the pen; guess what?  Its time.  I’d also start thinking about other AAA starters out of the pen while the two closer-retreads they’ve just signed (Francisco Rodriguez and Kevin Jepsen get fitted for uniforms and throw a few innings in AAA).   Call up guys from AA straight and DFA the deadweight that you know you don’t trust that’s sitting in AAA . You hate trading from a position of weakness, but its time to start working the phones and cashing in assets.

I’ve preached patience for this bullpen, and I just ran out of it.

ps: the larger news on the night of course is the Trea Turner injury.  That’s a bad piece of luck … but its also why we got back Stephen Drew.  My initial thoughts on Turner’s hit are these: its not season ending, we have a 9.5 game lead in a division were nobody else is really even trying, we’ll be fine.   He’ll be back for September when it counts.  Fix the bullpen.

2017 CWS Finals: Florida finally Wins!

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Florida Gators; your deserving 2017 CWS champs. Photo via Alligator Army

Florida Gators; your deserving 2017 CWS champs. Photo via Alligator Army

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2017:


Here’s how the finals played out.

For Reference: LSU stats and Florida Stats:

Here’s how I thought the pitching matchups would go; turns out LSU pushed both Poche and Lange to go with a “bullpen” game 1, starting a guy in Russell Reynolds who had a 8.50 ERA on the season in a gambit to get the pitching matchup advantages (and to get both Poche and Lange with more rest) for games 2 and 3.  Risky; if Poche gets beat in game two then you lose the CWS finals with your ace on the bench.  Meanwhile, Florida changed things up too, going with middle reliever Tyler Dyson in game 2 instead of Kower on short rest.

  • Game 1:  Monday 6/26/17:  LSU middle reliever Russell Reynolds/bullpen vs Florida’s #2 starter Brady Singer (8-5, 3.18 ERA) on 5 days rest.
  • Game 2: Tuesday 6/27/17:  LSU’s #2 Starter Jared Poche (12-3, 3.33 ERA on the season) with 5 days rest vs Tyler Dyson (4-0 with a 3.23 ERA) with plenty of rest since he only has 2 starts on the year.
  • Game 3 (if necessary): Wednesday 6/28/17: LSU’s #1 Starter Alex Lange (10-5, 2.97 ERA) with 4 days rest vs Florida’s #3 starter Jackson Kower (12-1, 4.15 ERA) on 4 days rest/#1 Alex Faedo (9-2, 2.26 ERA)  on 3 days rest.

Results:

  • In Game 1, Singer bent but did not break, giving up 3 runs in 7 IP and striking out a CWS record 12 guys before handing off to Florida’s all-american closer Michael Byrne for a 2-inning save to close out game 1 win 4-3.  LSU’s Reynolds gave up 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings before handing off to middle reliever Nick Bush for the middle third and then deposed closer Hunter Newman for the final 2 and 1/3, and Bush/Newman kept it close but LSU just couldn’t score late to tie it.  As mentioned above, an interesting gambit by LSU’s coaching staff going with a bullpen game against Florida’s best remaining arm.  Lets see if Poche and Lange can pull it off in games 2 and three.
  • In Game 2, Florida rolled the dice by starting Dyson, who gave them a fantastic 6ip 3hit, 1run outing while Florida put a couple of runs on Poche.  LSU thought they had the game tied in the 7th when they scored a run on a double play ball, but an ill-advised slide caused the runner to be returned to third and LSU couldn’t capitalize the rest of the night.  LSU’s closer Hess finally ran out of gas, giving up 4 runs in the 8th inning to put the game out of reach.  Meanwhile, Florida’s coach tempted fate by bringing in his game 3 starter Kower to relieve his closer, a move that paid off as Kower shut down LSU to finish off the game and the win 6-1.

Your 2017 College World Series ChampionFlorida

Commentary: I think the right team won, and the team I predicted would win ended up winning … but neither Lange nor Faedo pitched in the final series.  Why not put a day or two in there so that the pitching can work its way out and we could get a for-real three game series between these teams?  That was the only downside of this final.  Florida’s long storied baseball program finally gets a national title.


This concludes the College Baseball season and our coverage of it for 2017.  I’ll post one more post that covers draftees and signing status for all local-connected players (prep and college).  I don’t really cover the summer collegiate wood bat leagues: for that I’d suggest NovaBaseball.com, which is really coming into its own in terms of local coverage for all players with local ties.


2017 College CWS tournament references

Written by Todd Boss

June 29th, 2017 at 9:21 am

GCL Nats Roster Announced … First look at the Pitchers

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2017 3rd rounder Nick Raquet starts in the GCL as one of its most intriguing arms. Photo via State College Pa

2017 3rd rounder Nick Raquet starts in the GCL as one of its most intriguing arms. Photo via State College Pa

They didn’t exactly “announce” the roster, but by virtue of the fact that the first GCL Nats game is today (6/27/17), we can take a look at the roster and see where things are shaking out.

Like we did last week with the Auburn/Short-A roster, lets take a look at who is starting on the named roster in the GCL.

  • Jared Brashner, 22, RHP 2017 8th round pick from Samford.  Senior sign so immediately too old for GCL, hopefully a quick stint before moving up to Short-A.  Also though a very underslot deal, so not a lot of expectations here.
  • Jake Cousins, 22, RHP 2017 20th round pick from Penn.  Also a senior sign, from a non-baseball Ivy league school and with a famous DC-area cousin.
  • Jose De Los Santos, 20, RHP, a 2015 IFA signing (Dominican Republic).  Was a middle reliever for the DSL Nats last year with middling results (4.01 ERA, 23/14 K/BB in 33 innings).
  • Nelson Galindez, 18, LHP 2017 22nd round pick out of a Florida HS.  Signed away from a JuCo commitment for the max allowable non top-10 round bonus ($125,000).  Its rate to see a high schooler picked in the 20th rounds to sign, but Galindez did.  Should be interesting to see what he has.
  • Darly Infante, 20, LHP 2016 IFA signing (Dominican Republic).  Started 12 games for DSL Nats last year with good numbers (2.94 ERA, 52/19 K/BB in 49IP).
  • Jose Jimenez, 20, LHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic).  Three year veteran of the DSL, working mostly later inning relief but not with the dominant K/9 numbers you’d like to see.
  • Jared  Johnson, 21, LHP 2017 17th rounder out of a Florida Juco.  Old for a Juco guy (he turns 22 in September) , hoping to see him pitch his way out of GCL soon.
  • Kyle Johnston, 20, RHP 2017 6th rounder out of Texas.  Texas’ Sunday starter put up decent numbers his junior year, finished strong (his final college game was a 7ip 3run performance in the regionals) and signed for slot as a 6th rounder.  Like others, probably shouldn’t be in the GCL as a starter from a big12 college.
  • Gabe Klobosits, 22, RHP 2017 36th rounder from Auburn.  Mostly a reliever for Auburn (a handful of mid-week starts), a 36th round senior sign who probably doesn’t have much in the way of expectations.
  • Jesus Luzardo, 19, LHP 2016 3rd rounder.  This is the big name on the roster that everyone is waiting to see.  Luzardo was a HUGE overslot guy in 2016, getting a $1.4M bonus commensurate with the top of the 2nd round and signing him away from a Miami commitment.  He has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and this will be his first test.
  • Jeremy McKinney, 22 RHP 2017 31st rounder from Indiana State.  As with several other senior signs, McKinney likely has the next couple of months to keep his spot.
  • Francys Peguero, 21, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic).  Split time last year between GCL and Short-A, starts the year on the D/L.
  • Nector Ramirez, 20, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Dominican Republic).  Missed all of 2016 with a rotator cuff tear after two so-so seasons in the DSL.  Should be interesting to see if he’s come back from a tough injury.
  • Nick Raquet, 21, LHP 2017 3rd round pick from William & Mary.  Signed slightly underslot deal; i’ve been critical of this pick and am quite curious to see how he does.  The fact that a 3rd round collegiate junior pick is starting in the GCL is already a bad sign for me.
  • David Smith, 22, RHP 2017 25th rounder from Long Beach State.  Good baseball school, good pedigree, but Smith is a 25th round senior sign so expectations are limited.
  • Leif Strom, 20 RHP 2017 21st round out of a Washington JuCo.  Sizeable bonus for the 20th round, should be interesting to see what he has.   Unfortunately his first move is to go onto the D/L, where he starts his pro career.
  • Jackson Tetreault, 21, RHP 2017 7th rounder out of a Florida JuCo.  Took an over-slot deal closer to 5th round money to buy him out of a USF commit.   I’m going to struggle to spell his name correctly in this blog for a while.
  • Alex Troop, 20, LHP 2017 9th round pick out of Michigan State.  Troop was Michigan’s friday starter and signed an overslot deal to come to the Nats.  I look forward to seeing what he has.
  • Trey Turner, 21, RHP 2017 10th rounder out of Missouri State.  Turner was looking like a solid member of Missouri State’s bullpen before heading to TJ surgery; he starts on the D/L and we won’t see him til this time in 2018.
  • Ryan Williamson, 22 LHP 2015 15th rounder from NC State.

 

Not listed here is Weston Davis, who is on the GCL roster officially doing a rehab assignment.

They don’t really do starters and relievers in the GCL; instead you see a lot of 3 inning stints from multiple arms.  So we won’t try to name a “rotation” here.  But squinting here i’d go with Infante, Johnston, Luzardo, Tetreault, Troop as my rotation.  (note: i’m writing this prior to seeing who pitches in the first game, so apologies if this is already wrong).

Breakdown of Arms:

  • 21 arms; 3 on the D/L, 1 on rehab assignment.
  • Average Age: 20 years, 8 months.  So that’s kind of old, but what are you going to do when you draft a gazillion college arms right?
  • Of the 20 non-rehab/rostered players: 8 lefties, 12 righties
  • Acquisition method breakdown:
    • 13 of the 20 arms are 2017 draftees
    • 2 others are from prior drafts (Luzardo and Williamson)
    • 5 are IFAs; 4 of them are DSL grads from last year, one (Peguero) who has been in-country for a bit but is hurt.

Who is still missing?  Not too many:

  • Jeremy McDonald was at one point on the GCL roster but has been put back into XST as far as I can tell.
  • Some trickling in 2017 signees: Brigham Hill (who was at the CWS) and Jackson Stoeckinger.
  • A few guys that seemed likely to matriculate to the GCL but who seem to be repeating DSL: Amoroso, CFlores, AMartinez.

Who am I really interested in seeing?  Luzardo first and foremost, Raquet, Johnston, Infante, Tetreault and Troop.  Basically all the guys who I think project as starters, plus the controversial 2017 pick Raquet.

 

2017 CWS Group Winners and CWS Final preview

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CWS-2017_calendar-narrow

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2017:


Lets review the CWS group play.  The CWS plays just one or two games a day; a far cry from the first weekend, where 64 teams played hundreds of games over the course of a long weekend.  So this post has been written in one or two sentence increments for a week and a half…

My pre-CWS predictions were LSU from the top and TCU from the bottom.  My predictions weren’t looking too hot after the first day, but ended up being half right.  Read on.


In the Top Bracket (#1 Oregon State, Cal-State Fullerton, #12 Florida State, #4 LSU)

  • In the opening games, Oregon State overcame a bad outing from Jake Thompson, rallying to top Cal-State Fullerton 6-5.  Meanwhile, LSU similarly overcame a bad outing from its ace Alex Lange, getting a shutdown relief effort from #2 starter Jared Poche and the one-out close-out from Virginia native Zach Hess to beat Florida State 5-4.
  • In the first elimination game, Florida State took advantage of 8 CS-F walks to win 6-4 and eliminate the Titans.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, Oregon State made a pretty large statement by destroying LSU 13-1.  OSU’s Bryan Fehmel totally baffled LSU for 8 innings, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits (the run was on a very large homer in the 8th inning when the game was well in hand).   LSU’s staff walked *twelve* batters and never had a chance.
  • In the play-in game to the group final, LSU’s Poche came back on short rest and dominated FSU for 8 innings, giving up just one unearned run.  After back-to-back crushed homers to open the 9th, Lynchburg’s Hess came on and just blew away three hitters to close out the game with 95-96 heat and a fantastic curve.  LSU moves on.
  • In the group final, OSU could do nothing with LSU’s ace Lange, who gave up just two hits through 7 and a third; then super closer Hess came on and struck out 4 of the 5 guys he faced to force a winner-take-all game to close out the group.  Its only fitting.  I’m not the only one gushing over Hess; the CWS broadcasters spent a full inning talking about him … in the TCU/Florida game.  In the winner take all game on 6/24/17, LSU got to OSU’s starter early, their own starter was fantastic (mid-week starter Caleb Gilbert gave up just 2 hits through 7 and change before handing the ball over to Hess once again.  LSU comes back through the loser’s bracket to advance.  Its hard not to say that the loss of OSU’s ace Luke Heimlich didn’t affect the outcome of this CWS: I have no issues saying that LSU would have been much harder pressed to overcome OSU two days in a row if they had to face a guy with a 0.76 ERA on the season.

Final Group standings: LSU, Oregon State, Florida State, Cal-State Fullerton.

 


In the Bottom Bracket (Texas A&M, #7 Louisville, #6 TCU, #3 Florida)

  • In the opening games, Louisville overcame a bad start from its #1 draft pick Brendan McCay to bash their way to victory over TAMU 8-4.  In the nightcap, Florida rode a fantastic outing from its 1st rounder Alex Faedo, who shut down TCU on 2 hits over 7 innings for a 3-0 victory, severely dampening TCU’s chances and my predictions.
  • In the first elimination game, TCU got a stellar start from Brian Howard (12ks in 7 innings) and eliminated TAMU 4-1.
  • In the winner’s bracket game, Florida got a dominant start from its #2 starter (and likely 2018 early 1st rounder Brady Singer), who gave up just one run in 7 innings and Florida eased by Louisville 5-1.
  • In the play-in game to the group final, two of the best teams all  year in Louisville and TCU met in a loser-goes-home game.  TCU got 4 runs early on Louisville’s #3 starter and their freshman ace Nick Lodolo  combined forces with Sean Wymer to make it stick.
  • In the group final, TCU broke out against Florida’s bullpen and won a laugher 9-2 to force the winner-take-all game.  Again, only fitting given the talent that is in this CWS.  However, in the final game, Florida’s Faedo shut down TCU and Florida got just enough against TCU’s Jared Janczak to advance.  Florida to the CWS final.

Final Group standings: Florida, TCU, Louisville, TAMU

 


CWS finals discussion: Games 1,2,3 set for M-T-W June 26, 27,28

Pitching Matchups (LSU stats and Florida Stats):

  • Game 1:  Monday 6/26/17: LSU’s #2 Starter Jared Poche (12-3, 3.33 ERA on the season) with 4 days rest vs Florida’s #2 starter Brady Singer (8-5, 3.18 ERA) on 5 days rest.
  • Game 2: Tuesday 6/27/17: LSU’s #1 Starter Alex Lange (10-5, 2.97 ERA) with 3 days rest vs Florida’s #3 starter Jackson Kower (12-1, 4.15 ERA) on 3 days rest.
  • Game 3: Wednesday 6/28/17: LSU’s mid-week starter Caleb Gilbert (7-1 with a 2.85 ERA) with 3 days rest vs Florida’s #1 Alex Faedo (9-2, 2.26 ERA)  on 3 days rest.

LSU’s missing their #2 starter (Eric Walker), who left the 2nd game of the CWS early and has not returned.  This puts them in a bind, having to use both Lange and Gilbert on short rest.  If Walker could return, they’d likely go Poche-Walker-Lange in that order.  But, Gilbert was awesome in the OSU elimination game, so its not a big step down.  Meanwhile, Florida burned Faedo to get to the final, and they may struggle to cobble together enough pitching to last the final.  Singer is ready to go game one and will be a tough out, but Kower isn’t going to slow LSU’s bats, so it may come down to how far they push Faedo on 3 days rest and after throwing a 113 pitch gem in the group final.

These teams met in March at Florida, with the Gators winning Faedo and Singer’s starts before LSU battering Kower to take the Sunday finale.  I see the same pattern here: I think Singer shuts down LSU in game one, Lange does likewise in game 2 while LSU batters Kower again, leading to a distinct pitching advantage in game three.

Prediction: Florida in 3.


College CWS tournament references

Nats 2017 Draft Class; whole lotta College Arms

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So, is 2017 a one-player draft again? Photo via UHcougars.com

So, is 2017 a one-player draft again? Photo via UHcougars.com

We already did a quick reaction to the first day/first two picks and then the top 10 rounds.  Here’s a more holistic look at our 2017 draft class.  The team announced yesterday that it had already signed an amazing 25 guys, and I think that number is likely to rise to at least 33 players (assuming all top 10 round players and all College seniors sign).  That’s quite a few more than I initially projected.

I did want to make a statement though, following up on a back-and-forth in the comments on previous posts about 3rd rounder Nick Raquet (who, unsurprisingly to me, has already signed though no word on his bonus amount).  Some asked why I was so critical of the pick.  We’ll, here’s why: its about opportunity cost.  Raquet was indeed ranked on some boards (#145 in BA’s pre-draft list) but was absent from practically every other credible draft service (MLBpipeline.com for example ranked 200 players and didn’t rank him at all).   ESPN/Keith Law, MinorLeagueBall, 20/80 and Fangraphs all had him totally off their lists.  Baseball Draft Report had him in the 300s.

The Nats drafted him #103 overall, at the end of the 3rd round.

I have nothing against Raquet personally, nor his school in general (which I denigrated during the comments due to its lack of baseball pedigree).  What I have a problem with is taking a player in the third round who:

a) was a far inferior player versus where he was drafted,

b) if the team really, really wanted him would have been available probably 3 or 4 rounds later, and

c) the team chose to take in lieu of many, many better ranked players at the time of the pick.

You could make the same arguments, by the way, about our 4th rounder: a senior in Cole Freeman who again by BA’s rank was drafted at least two rounds too early and by anyone else’s rankings was drafted 5 rounds too early.

The drafting of these two players in the 3rd and 4th cost the team the opportunity to draft two far, far better players in those slots.  I don’t have a problem punting draft picks in the 6-10th round range if you’ve drafted quality players in 1-5 … but to purposely punt on 3rd and 4th round implies that their round 1 and 2 picks (Seth Romero and Wil Crowe) were both going to be over slot guys.  And that astounds me; Romero was kicked off his college team; how is he in a position to command more dollars than his slot?  Where’s he gonna player if he doesn’t sign?  Indy ball?  And Crowe is a 4th year player with a TJ on his resume who I suppose could go back for a 5th collegiate season, but really that’d be flushing a crucial year of development down the tubes, plus burning a year on his surgically repaired arm … with little chance he could improve his bonus amount or draft ranking over where he got drafted this year.  How are either guy demanding over-slot money?

I liken the situation to playing Fantasy sports.  When your buddy in your league drafts a kicker in the 8th round you mock him mercilessly.  Why?  Because that same kicker was going to be there 4 rounds later and because wasting an 8th round pick on a kicker is a sign of poor team management and a lack of understanding of how fantasy works.  Its the same thing wasting a 3rd rounder in the fashion the team just did.

So, frustration over punting two high draft picks so as to pay two other high draft picks more money than I think they’re worth leads me to the end of this diatribe.  We’ll have our answer soon enough; if Raquet signs for a piddling amount of money (his slot value is $522,300), and if Freeman similarly signs for under-slot (he’s at $390,000) then you’ll have confirmation of the punting on these picks.  I suppose both guys could sign for at or near slot, which would imply that they were worth the draft pick; if that happens i’ll be shocked.


 

Anyway, back to the draft class review overall.  Here’s a quick table 1-40 before doing some breakdowns:

 

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmStateSlot Value
125Seth RomeroLHPCol JrHoustonTX2530400
265Wil CroweRHPCol SrSouth CarolinaSC946500
3103Nick RaquetLHPCol JrWilliam & MaryVA522300
4133Cole Freeman2BCol SrLSULA390000
5163Brigham HillRHPCol JrTAMUTX291200
6193Kyle JohnstonRHPCol JrTexasTX226100
7223Jackson TetreaultRHPJ2State Col Florida ManateeFL178100
8253Jared BrashnerRHPCol SrSamford Fl149600
9283Alex TroopLHPCol JrMichigan StateMI138000
10313Trey TurnerRHPCol JrMissouri StateMO131300
11343Justin ConnellOFHSAmerican Heritage SchoolFL
12373Jackson StoeckingerLHPJ2Col of Central FloridaFL
13403Eric SeniorOFJ2Midland ColTX
14433Anthony PeroniCJ2Mercer County CCNJ
15463Bryce Montes de OcaRHPCol JrMissouriMO
16493Jake Scudder1BCol SrKansas St UKS
17523Jared JohnsonLHPJ1Palm Beach State ColFL
18553Nick ChorubyOFCol SrTexas A&M UTX
19583Jonathan PryorOFCol SrWake Forest UNC
20613Jake CousinsRHPCol SrPennsylvaniaPA
21643Leif StromRHPJ2Pierce CollegeWA
22673Nelson GalindezLHPHSHaines City HSFL
23703Jamori Blash1BJ2Cochise ColGA
24733Tim RichardsSSCol SrCal State FullertonCA
25763David SmithRHPCol SrCal St Long BeachCA
26793Kameron EsthayOFCol SrBaylor UTX
27823Darren BakerSSHSJesuit HSCA
28853Nic PerkinsCCol JrDrury UniversityMO
29883Alex DunlapCCol SrStanfordCA
30913Austin GuiborOFCol JrFresno St UCA
31943Jeremy McKinneyRHPCol SrIndiana St UIN
32973Phil Caulfield2BCol SrLoyola Marymount UCA
331003Adalberto CarrilloCCol JrU Southern CaliforniaCA
341033Bennett SousaLHPCol JrVirginiaVA
351063Jackson Cramer1BCol SrWest VirginiaWV
361093Gabe KlobositsRHPCol SrAuburnAL
371123Kody Gratkowski3BHSFairhope HSAL
381153Jake BooneSSHSTorrey Pines HSCA
391183Kai NelsonOFHSFieldston HSNY
401213Max EngelbrektLHPCol Sr5Oregon St UOR

Here’s some breakdowns (note I wrote this prior to the team signing a bunch of these Juco guys plus a couple of HS guys):

  • 11 College Juniors, 16 College Seniors/5th year Seniors, 7 JuCo guys, 6 High Schoolers
  • 20 Pitchers, 20 hitters.  The pitchers broke down 12 RHP, 8 LHP.
  • 9 of the top 10 rounds are pitchers though: these are the guys nearly guaranteed to sign.
  • I count about 29 that i think are locks to sign; every guy in the first 20 rounds, plus all the 9 college seniors drafted in rounds 21-40.
    • Of these 29 guys: 17 are arms, 12 are bats.
  • I’m only guessing that one Prep guy signs: 11th rounder Justin Connell.
  • I count at least 4 under-slot guys: Nick RaquetCole Freeman ,8th rounder Jared Brashner and 10th rounder Trey Turner.  So that’s where the cost savings will come from to pay Romero, Crowe and perhaps Connell.

So, even though the draft splits even 20/20 bats and arms its heavily tilted at the top and in the signability department towards arms.  This should make for some serious carnage in the lower ends of our minor league ranks.  The Auburn roster is half stocked with late-round college seniors drafted in 2016 and rising IFAs from the DSL last year; I could see some moving of those guys down to GCL as needed and a shedding of 20th-some round 2016 signees to make room for all the guys they’ve picked up this year.  But the more I look at this draft, the more it looks like a one or two-player draft at the top.  Is that ok?  Sure; it is basically what the team did in the Lucas Giolito draft, and the industry was on record saying that the strength this year was college arms.  It should be interesting to see how quickly Romero moves up the ranks.

 

Auburn Roster Announced … First look at the Pitchers

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Auburn-Doubledays

The Nats havn’t (as of the moment of publishing this post) announced any 2017 class signings … but they did on 6/19/17 post a slew of transactions to the New York Penn League transactions page, which included (nearly) their entire pitching staff.  Those transactions coupled with the official posting of the Auburn roster on their twitter page (@Doubledays if you’re not following) confirm the opening day roster for the Auburn Short-season squad.

Lets take a quick look at who made it, who didn’t, and who might be in line to be in the “rotation” as much as they generally follow a rotation in Short-A.  In alphabetical order, lets look at the arms, where they came from and where they may slot in:

  • Tomas Alastre, 19.  RHP 2015 IFA signing (Venezuela).  Was in the GCL in 2016, where he threw 19 innings in total and had an ERA north of 5.00.  Young for Short A as a 19-yr old.
  • Joseph Baltrip, 22.  RHP 2016 24th round pick out of Juco.  Was in GCL last year, working as a late-inning reliever with good results (1.36 ERA).  Likely the closer or close to it.
  • Jake Barnett , 22.  LHP 2016 20th rounder out of  Lewis-Clark State.  Only thew 5 innings last year but didn’t hit the D/L; should be interesting to see what he does in 2017.
  • Ben Braymer, 23.  LHP 2016 18th rounder out of Auburn.   Also in GCL last  year, 19IP in 10 appearances.  Likely a reliever.
  • Gilberto Chu 19.  LHP 2015 IFA signing (Panama).  Last 2 seasons in DSL, last year he started.
  • Matthew DeRosier 22, RHP 2013 24th round pick out of Southwestern College.  5 pro season, he started the year with Hagerstown but got bombed so this is a demotion.  This will be the 4th year he’s appeared in Auburn.  He was a young Juco draftee, so he’s not terribly old for the level … but in his 5 pro season he should be further along.
  • Diomedes Eusebio 24, RHP 2010 IFA Signing (DR).  Was a hitter for his first 5 pro seasons, now converting to the mound.  This will be his 2nd full season on the hill; he had a 5.01 ERA in 14 relief innings in the GCL last year.
  • Jhonatan German 22, RHP 2015 IFA signing (DR).  Reliever in the GCL last year with mediocre numbers.
  • Angel Guillen 20, RHP 2013 IFA signing (Venezuela).  Pitched the last three years in the DSL, last year starting and posting a stellar 1.67 ERA.
  • Malvin Pena 19yr old RHP 2014 IFA signing (DR).  Pitched in DSL last two years; he seemed to have a serious injury though because he was on the 60-day D/L both years.
  • Jonny Reid 21yr old LHP 2016 28th rounder out of Azusa Pacific.  Got promoted from GCL->Short-A last year, starts in Auburn again.
  • Michael Rishwain 22yr old RHP 2016 23rd rounder out of Westmont College.  Solid middle relief numbers for GCL last year.
  • Felix Taveras 21yr old 2014 IFA signing (DR).  Starter the last two seasons in the DSL with bad ERA but good K/9 numbers.

Kylin Turnbull, who is now 27, who has been kicking around the system since being drafted in the 4th round in 2011 and who hasn’t thrown a pro pitch since August 27th, 2014, is assigned for rehab.  I suppose he’ll be in the mix for starts as well.

Two additional names (Chase McDowell and Michael Sylvestri) are on the roster but listed as restricted; I believe both retired two seasons ago but are still in the database.

Likely rotation: Alastre, Barnett, Chu, Guillen, Taveras, Turnbull

Likely Bullpen: Baltrip as a closer, Braymer and Reid as loogies, DeRosier, Eusebio, German, MPena, Rishwain as RHP middle relievers.

Roster Breakdown (not counting Turnbull or the Restricted guys):

  • Seven IFAs and Six US-based draftees
  • The seven IFAs: 4 from the Dominican Republic, 2 from Venezuela, 1 from Panama
  • The 6 draftees: 5 of them are 2016 draftees and the earliest round drafted is the 18th round.  All low-round, low-expectation arms.
  • Ages: three 19yr old IFAs, mostly 21-23yr old college guys.  The oldest guy is an 24yr old IFA converting to the mound.

Now for the names that didn’t make this team but who were on Auburn’s staff last year or who were signed in the off-season and assigned to Auburn; you have to believe their days are numbered at this point, given that the team just drafted a ridiculous number of college arms in the 2017 draft (review to come).

  • Wilber Pena: just 14IP last year for Auburn with a 6.75ERA; might be hurt.
  • Yoan Aponte: signed in Nov 2016 and assigned to Auburn; no pro appearances yet.
  • Angher Cespedes; was released a few weeks ago.
  • Johan Gomez: signed in Mar 2017 and assigned to Auburn; already 23 so seems too old to go to GCL; may languish in XST.
  • Kevin Mooney: UMaryland closer repeated Auburn in 2016 and didn’t make Hagerstown roster.  He hasn’t been released  yet but he doesn’t seem like a safe bet to carry on further.

There’s a slew of other names that I had associated with the GCL who might be in the same boat: We’ll go over them when we do this post for the GCL.

The posting of this roster now makes me wonder just where they plan on starting all these college arms, especially the higher profile guys.  Seth Romero and Wil Crowe are way, way too good to go to the GCL, and Romero needs innings after missing half the season this spring.  Do they both go straight to Hagerstown?  We’ll see.

 

 

2017 Prep Baseball Update #3: Virginia State Champions crowned

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Update #3 for DC/MD/VA Prep baseball for 2017.

Here’s the rough schedule of posting and what we’ll cover:

  • #1: DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: post-season kickoff.  Covers: MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney updates.  Usually publishes the week before Memorial day tournament finals.
  • #2: Maryland State Champs, Northern VA Regional Champs crowned.  Covers: MD state finals, VA regionals finals.  Usually publishes first week of June.
    #3: Virginia State Champions crowned (this post) .  Covers: VA state tourneys, recaps MD, DC, Private School results.  Publishes mid-June once the Va state tourney wraps up.
  • #4: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings; publishes early July once all the all-state lists are published.
  • #5: final post with all content in one place, plus my Ficticious tournament of Champs

Lost in the shuffle of last week’s Draft and CWS regionals was the Virginia state finals.  This post is more than a week old now, but here’s a rundown of the Virginia finals.


Virginia State tourney match-ups and tourney locations

All the state tourneys ran from June 8th-10th at the various sites.  All state brackets available from this link at VHSL, and the district and regional brackets are here.

Semifinals and Finals:
1A/2A – Spring Jubilee at Radford, Virginia Tech, June 8-10
3A/4A – Spring Jubilee at Salem, June 9-10
5A/6A– Spring Jubilee at James Robinson/Westfield, June 9-10

 


6-A State Finals: held at Robinson and Westfield HS in Northern Virginia.

  • 6-A North Winner Oakton, runner-up Patriot
  • 6-A South Winner Cox, runner-up Western Branch

6-A State Semis Results:  Both North Regional teams fell short in the state-semis; Oakton lost to Western Branch 3-0, while Patriot lost to a solid Cox team 4-1.  Oakton finishes the year 19-8, Patriot 21-4.

6-A State Final: Western Branch got revenge on Cox for the Regional final, winning 6-4 for their 2nd state championship in four years.

 


5-A State Finals: held at Robinson and Westfield HS in Northern Virginia.

  • 5-A North Winner Briar Woods, runner-up Halifax
  • 5-A South Winner Prince George, runner-up Menchville.

5-A State Semis Results:  Briar Woods kept up its great post-season run, topping Menchville 6-1 to earn a state final bid.  Halifax threw state player of the year Andrew Abbott, who threw a 2-hitter to shut down the top team in the state Prince George and lead his team to a regional rematch in the state title game.

5-A State Final: Briar Woods 5 Halifax 4 in 14 grueling innings on a hot saturday.  Great run for Briar Woods in the 2017 post-season.

 


4-A State Finals: held in Salem, VA.

  • 4-A East Winner Hanover, runner-up Great Bridge
  • 4-A West Winner Liberty Christian Academy, runner up Harrisonburg

4-A State Semis Results:  In a result that even the Richmond-Times had to explain, Hanover defeated Harrisonburg HS 31-3.  Thirty One runs.   In the other state semi, Liberty Christian eased past Great Bridge 7-4 to setup a rematch of last year’s ridiculously epic 13-12 4A State final.

The 4-A final wasn’t nearly as amazing as last year’s game; Liberty Christian Academy defeated Hanover 8-5 to take the title.

 


3-A State Finals: held in Salem, VA.

  • 3-A East Winner Riverside runner-up Spotsylvania
  • 3-A West Winner: Turner Ashby, runner-up Brookville

3-A State Semis Results: 2nd year program Riverside continues to impress, destroying Brookville 18-6 to earn a state title berth.  Turner Ashby took the other state semi final over Spotsylvania.

In the final between Riverside/Turner Ashby, Riverside’s run came to an end with a 14-3 demolition by 3A champs Turner Ashby.

 


Smaller Classifications: held at Radford & Va Tech.

  • 2-A match-ups: Both 2A West teams won their semis, with Dan River beating Madison County and John Battle beating Goochland.  In the final, Dan River 5, John Battle 4.
  • 1-A match-ups:  Both regional runners-up upset regional champs in the semis, with Stonewall Jackson and Auburn HS advancing to the final.  Auburn 6 Stonewall Jackson 0 in the final.

Recent Virginia HS champs:  Before 2014, we just AAA, AA and A; now we have 1-A through 6-A.  For next season (2018 for baseball) they’re re-doing the classifications again, changing up teams in divisions and regions but keeping the six classifications.  I don’t see any of the big-time 4A teams (Great Bridge,  Hanover, Liberty Christian) moving up though.

2016: See this post for 2016’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

  • In 6-A, Chantilly d Battlefield 3-2.  Hylton & Cosby state semis.
  • In 5-A, Nansemond River defeated Mountain View 5-3.  Potomac, Mills Godwin semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Liberty Christian Academy 13-12.  Jamestown, Kettle Run semi finalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Rustberg repeated 3-A, Maggie Walker won in 2-A and Rappahannock won 1-A.

2015: See this post for 2015’s state tournament wrapup for all 6 divisions:

  • In 6-A, Madison d Chantilly 6-5.  First Colonial & defending champ Western Branch were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Stone Bridge d Marshall 9-4.  2014 finalists Hickory & Freeman were state semifinalists.
  • In 4-A, Glen Allen d Jefferson Forrest 9-3.  Fauquier & Hanover were state semifinalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Lafayette won 3-A, Virginia High repeated in 2-A and William Campbell won 1-A.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
  • In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley won 3-A, Virginia High won 2-A and Northumberland won 1-A.

2013: AAA: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (committed to UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now attending UVA after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012: AAA: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011: AAA: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010: AAA: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.  Lots of fun to dig through.


 

That wraps up Virginia, the last local state to play its tourneys.  Next post we’ll publish all the all-state/all-region accolades that come out this time of year.

Written by Todd Boss

June 19th, 2017 at 11:10 am

Posted in Local Baseball

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2017 Draft coverage; DC Area Local draftees and who didn’t get drafted of note

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Bukauskas was the highest DC-area player taken this year.  Photo Bill Kamenjar/InsideNova.com

Bukauskas was the highest DC-area player taken this year. Photo Bill Kamenjar/InsideNova.com

Draft Coverage so far for 2017:

Here’s a quick rundown of the DC-area kids who got drafted this year.  My definition of “DC Area” includes any draftee who went to HS in the DC area or who attends a DC-area college.  Thus this includes University of Maryland players, even inf most of them went to HS outside the area.  NovaBaseballMagazine.com has a version of this story, and AllMetSports.com also published one if you’re interested.

RoundOverallStateDrafting TeamNamePositionCol/HSHSCollege
115VAHoustonJ.B. BukauskasRHPCol JrStone Bridge (Ashburn)UNC
2-S70VAColoradoTommy DoyleRHPCol JrFlint Hill (Vienna)UVA
4129MDTorontoKevin SmithSSCol JrUpdate NYUmaryland
6172MDArizonaBrian ShafferRHPCol JrN. Harford, Pylesville MDUmaryland
10294VAMilwaukeeAlec BettingerRHPCol JrHylton (Woodbridge)UVA
14422MDNew York YankeesHarold CortijoRHPHSRiverdale BaptistSeminole State
17515VADetroitBilly LescherRHPCol JrWest Potomac HSPenn
17524VATexasTyler Ratliff3BCol JrTC Williams Marshall U
18527VACincinnatiJohn GhyzelRHPCol JrWestfield (C'ville)U Rochester
19558VASan DiegoNick Feight1BCol SrBattlefieldUNC-Wilmington
19566VAColoradoJoey BartosicCFCol SrOakton HSGeorge Washington
20598MD/VAPittsburghWill ReedRHPJ2Loudoun Valley (Purceville)Harford CC
21625VALos Angeles AngelsDevon PerezRHPCol JrStone Bridge (Ashburn)Oklahoma
22653VAPhiladelphiaBrian Mims2BCol JrForest Park HS (Woodbridge)UNC-Wilmington
27800MDAtlantaRandy BednarCFHSLandon SchoolUmaryland
27820MDLos Angeles DodgersJeremy ArochoSSHSOld MillNorthwest Florida State College
31921VAOaklandBrandon WithersRHPCol Sr5Osborn (Manassas)JMU
31937MDNew York MetsRyan SelmerRHPCol JrRiverdale BaptistUmaryland
32946VAMinnesotaNick BrownRHPCol SrPatriot (Bristow)William & Mary
341023MDSeattleDavid HesslinkLHPCol SrBethesda-Chevy ChaseMIT
361071VAOaklandLogan FarrarOF/LHPCol JrWoodbridge HSVCU
371109MDMiamiJared PriceRHPCol Sr5Pennsylvania HSUMaryland

That’s not a bad collection of DC-area guys.  We all knew J.B. Bukauskas would go high; lots of the mock drafts I saw had him as high as 6th.  However two unsteady starts to close out his career (in the ACC tourney and then in the Regionals of the CWS) dropped him probably 10 spots from where he could have gone.  Rumor has it he was suffering from a blister.  Suffice it to say, Houston has to be ecstatic that they got him at 15.  I’m slightly surprised how high Tommy Doyle went honestly; I would have guessed him to go a bit lower based on his profile now at UVA (reliever).  But he’s now looking at an $800k+ bonus.  UMaryland infielder Kevin Smith went a bit lower than projections.  Maryland RHP Brian Shaffer also went a bit ahead of schedule, going in the 6th round after having some helium this spring.  The last DC-area top-10 pick with a guaranteed slot was also a surprise to me: another UVA arm in Alec Bettinger went in the 10th round.  Again a surprise given his profile as a reliever.  But certainly not on talent or reputation; Bettinger’s name has been known to local baseball followers for years.

Riverdale Baptist’s Harold Cortijo, the All-Met player of the year, went in the 14th round.  It should be interesting to see what he does.  It seemed to me from reading his interviews that he intended to go pro, but a 14th round pick somewhat limits the bonus dollars he can get.  I wonder if he goes to JuCo and tries again next year.

Three DC-area prep graduates who, frankly, I’d never heard of went in the 17th and 18th rounds.  All three were at lower-profile baseball colleges.

Two area guys who play for UNC-Wilmington and who got some pre-season All America mention went in the 19th and 22nd round respectively: Nick Feight and Brian Mims were surprises to me to go so low.

The only other DC-area prep guys to even get drafted this year were two of the leading prep players in the area: Landon’s Randy Bednar, who went in the 27th and seems likely to honor his commit to UMaryland.  Also Old Mill’s Jeremy Orocho, who  is a longtime Evoshield Canes member and who apparently gave up on his UMaryland commit to go to JuCo.  I’m guessing he plays a year of community college and re-applies for the draft.


 

So here’s a short list of the higher profile DC-area kids who did NOT get drafted at all that i’ve been tracking for a while: These commits change constantly so apologies if I have one of them wrong.

  • Kyle Whitten, RHP/1B from Osbourn Park in Manassas, VA.  Early commit to UVA.
  • Tyler Solomon, C/1B from Battlefield HS in Haymarket, VA.  Early commit to Vanderbilt
  • Anthony Simonelli RHP from Millbrook in Winchester, VA.  Early commit to Coastal Carolina
  • Michael Ludowig, OF from Briar Woods.  Early commit to Wake Forest.
  • Connor Hartigan, OF from Millbrook in Winchester, VA.  Was Early commit to Coastal Carolina, now committed to University of South Carolina-Sumter.

 

A far cry from 2016 with multiple prep kids from the area going in the top rounds.  I’ll do a similar post for the extended DC/MD/VA area next.

2017 CWS Super-Regionals recap, CWS field and predictions

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CWS-2017_calendar-narrow

Here’s a recap of our CWS coverage so far for 2017:


Lost in Draft 2017 mania was the finishing of the Super Regionals on Monday evening.  This post is a couple days old but just in time for the CWS to start.

Super Regional Recaps:  I’ve got these ordered by they way they’ll be playing into the CWS field (i.e. by bracket).  And this is the order they’re listed on d1baseball’s Tourney Central, the quickest way to find results.  Rain throughout southeast cancelled half the friday slate of games.

  • #1 Oregon State vs Vanderbilt: Oregon State’s #1 starter Luke Heinrich left the team after some past indiscretions were uncovered by the local paper (you can google the details yourself; the timing of the unveiling couldn’t have come at a worse time for him, his team or his future just days ahead of the draft,  however reprehensible his transgressions were).  Behind #2 starter Jake Thompson they rolled over Vanderbilt nonetheless 8-4 in game one.   They continued the onslaught, destroying one of the best SEC teams 9-2 to go two and out; Oregon State advances to the CWS even without its ace.
  • Cal State Fullerton vs #9 Long Beach State: LBSU blanked CS-F in the first game 3-0, taking the 6th game out of the 7 times they’ve now played this season.  Fullterton came roaring back and destroyed the Dirtbags 12-0 to force the decider.  In a shocker to me, Cal-State Fullerton got a dominant pitching performance from a mid-week starter and won the clincher 2-1 to advance.
  • Sam Houston State v #12 Florida State: FSU rallied to beat Sam Houston in the first game 7-6.  Sam Houston was in control before FSU scored 3 in the 6th to tie it, eventually getting the walk-off in the bottom of the 9th.  In game 2, Florida State scored in each of the first six innings to turn it into a laugher 19-0 and advance to their 22nd CWS.
  • #4 LSU vs Mississippi State: LSU scored 4 in the 8th to rally past Mississippi State in the first.  LSU’s ace Alex Lange was a bit wild; he got relieved by Virginia product Zach Hess, who got the Win.  In Game 2, LSU turned a close game into a laugher as Mississippi State seemed to run out of arms, eventually winning 14-4 to advanced to the CWS.

 

  • Davidson vs TAMU: Texas A&M beat the cinderella story Davidson 7-6 in the first game … in 15 innings (!).  One worry you always have seeing these collegiate long extra inning games is pitcher abuse; TAMU did seem to select a periodic starter to eat up the extra innings, so that’s good to see.  In Game 2, Davidson was ahead into the 8th … and then their lack of pitching depth finally got exposed.  TAMU exploded for 10 runs in the 8th and 9th to blow them away 12-6 and be the second team to punch their ticket to the CWS.
  • #7 Louisville v #10 Kentucky; Lousiville took game one behind their #2 starter, with super star  Brendan McKay going 0-3 at the plate.  McKay got the win in game two to punch Louisville’s ticket to the CWS, the first team to do so.  (Louisville had clinched the super regional before the LSU regional had played an inning thanks to weather).
  • #6 TCU v Missouri State: TCU won a close one 3-2 behind ace Jared Janczak; they scored 2 in the 8th to go ahead.  TCU cruised in game 2 8-1 to advance to their 4th straight CWS.
  • #3 Florida  vs #14 Wake Forest: Florida won game 1 in 11 innings; they threw ace Alex Faedo but he was on 72 pitches through 4 and got pulled.  Wake’s ace Parker Dunshee threw a fantastic game; 8ip, 3hits but Florida won on a walk-off.  Game two was suspended sunday night due to rain; the last regional to finish.  Wake Forest took the suspended game to force the decider, which unfortunately was being played just as the MLB draft started monday night.  There, Florida held serve and advanced 3-0 to finish out the field.

 

My CWS Predictions: Oregon State, TAMU, Florida, LSU, Florida State, TCU, Louisville, Long Beach State.

Actuals: Oregon State, TAMU, Florida, LSU, Florida State, TCU, Louisville, Cal-State Fullerton

I got 7 of 8 right, missing on the Fullerton pick (figuring that Long Beach State would continue to dominate them).


 

CWS Field and Profiles

Top Bracket:

  • #1 Oregon State: 54-4 overall record (27-3 in conference).  1st place Pac12,   Regular season conference champ (no post-season Pac12 tourney)
  • Cal State Fullerton: 39-22 (15-9).  3rd place Big West regular season (no Big West tourney)
  • #12 Florida State 45-21 (14-14): 5th place, Atlantic division ACC regular season.  1st place ACC tournament.
  • #4 LSU: 48-17 (21-9): 1st place, SEC West conference.  SEC tourney champs.

Bottom Bracket

  • Texas A&M: 41-21 (16-14): 5th place SEC West.
  • #7 Louisville: 52-10 (23-6): 1st Place Atlantic division ACC regular season.
  • #6 TCU: 47-16 (16-8): 1st place Big 12.  Lost in Big12 tourney title game.
  • #3 Florida: 46-19 (21-9): 1st Place SEC East regular season.

CWS field review by the numbers

  • Pac12: 1 team
  • Big West: 1 team
  • ACC: 2 teams
  • Big12: 1 team
  • SEC: 3 teams

 


CWS Field thoughts

What a great CWS field.  Several legendary programs (Cal-State Fullerton, Florida State and Florida) with dozens of appearances between them.  The undisputed #1 team in the land (Oregon State).  The undisputed #1 pre-season team in TCU.  Arguably the hottest team in the land in LSU.  The team with the likely #1 overall pick (Louisville).  Great spread amongst the power conference; you have 1st place teams from both SEC divisions, the ACC, the Pac12 and the Big12.  Every team in Omaha this year has been there already this decade, making it a very experienced field.  Should make for great baseball.

Quick predictions: LSU from the top; I’ve always been slightly biased against Pac12 teams and when the #1 team from the west meets the #1 team from the powerhouse SEC conference, something tells me the Tigers will prevail.   TCU from the bottom, though its tough to pick against Louisville.  I think TCU gets a break not having to face Brendan McKay in game one and that might be the difference.

Final: TCU takes the title over LSU and fulfils their #1 pre-season ranking.

Player Star power in this CWS: By team, here’s the guys to look for either for Nats interest or for overall talent/draft position:

  • Oregon State: two dominant starters in Luke Heimlich (possibly not playing) and Jake Thompson.  Also Drew Rasmussen, drafted ahead of either guy.  Max Engelbrekt has the best ERA on the team and was the Nats 40th round pick as a 5th-year senior.
  • TAMU; RHP Corbin Martin
  • Florida: Alex Faedo.
  • LSU Alex Lange their #1 starter plus their clean-up hitter Greg Deichmann, both first day draft picks.  Nats 2017 4th rounder Cole Freeman is their engine.
  • Florida State; none really, despite FSU’s ranking.  They’re a solid and younger team this year with no major 2017 draft prospects.
  • TCU’s Evan Skoug might get drafted relatively highly.
  • Louisville:  led by #4 overall pick Brendan McKay.
  • Cal State Fullerton; no 1st round notables; same as FSU: team depth, not superstars this year.

Nats 2017 Draftees in the CWS: thanks to the Nats strategy of drafting only College players, they drafted a ton of guys who are playing in Omaha.  By team:

  • Oregon State: Max Engelbrekt has the best ERA on the team and was the Nats 40th round pick as a 5th-year senior.  Not sure why he lasted til the 40th round…
  • TAMU: 5th rounder Jr RHP Brigham Hill, 18th rounder OF Nick Choruby.
  • Florida: none
  • LSU  Nats 2017 4th rounder 2B Cole Freeman is their engine.
  • Florida State: none
  • TCU: none this year, last year’s pick Evan Skoug got picked.
  • Louisville: none
  • Cal State Fullerton: 24th rounder sr. SS Tim Richards

 

College CWS tournament references:

First Look: Quick overview of Nats top 10 Draft picks for 2017

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Will Crowe was our 2nd rounder. PHoto via SportsTalk

Will Crowe was our 2nd rounder. PHoto via SportsTalk

Here’s a first look at our top 10 draft picks, or where we stand after day 2.

At the top of round 1, a last minute switch led to a surprise first name being selected: Royce Lewis went 1-1 instead of one of the two big college arms being rumored there all week; twitter reportedly had Brendan McKay rejecting an underslot deal at 1-1 and thus falling to 4th … where he’ll still get paid.  Nonetheless, the top 5 ended up being the same top-5 on nearly every mock draft … just in a different order.

How about the Nats picks?  Lets just say there was some back and forth among the pundits about these top 10 picks.

RoundOverallNamePositionCol/HSCollege or CmtmStateSlot Value
125Seth RomeroLHPCol JrHoustonTX2530400
265Wil CroweRHPCol SRSouth CarolinaSC946500
3103Nick RaquetLHPCol JrWilliam & MaryVA522300
4133Cole Freeman2BCol SRLSULA390000
5163Brigham HillRHPCol JrTAMUTX291200
6193Kyle JohnstonRHPColl JrTexasTX226100
7223Jackson TetreaultRHPJ2State Col Florida ManateeFL178100
8253Jared BrashnerRHPCol SrSamford Fl149600
9283Alex TroopLHPCol Jr.Michigan StateMI138000
10313Trey TurnerRHPCol Jr.Missouri StateMO131300

Pick by Pick: if they’re ranked on the main prospect ranking sites I like (see links at bottom):

  • 1st Round/#25 overall: Seth Romero, LHP UHouston. (Espn #59, MLBPipeline #25, BA #27, Minorleague #29, BDR #49, 2080 #30).  Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.  Prior to the spring, he was easily a top-10 talent, with early projections having him going as high as 6th overall.  He’s a power-lefty; works 92-95, touches 97 and per MLB already has two 60-grade pitches.  He kind of reminds you body-wise of Chad Cordero, with mechanics kind of like Drew Storen.  He’s got a very quick arm, is a big-body kid who might still need some conditioning work, but whose mechanics may give him some issues later on.  I don’t like the pick for the character issues; the Nats left one big college arm who I would have preferred in Alex Lange, but the guy I really liked here (Tanner Houck) went the pick before, so perhaps that sewed up the Nats choices.
  • 2nd/#65: Wil Crowe, RHP from South Carolina.  (Espn #43, MLBpipeline #44, BA #47, MinorLeague #30, BDR #185, 2080 #51):   A guy who I saw in some mock drafts going to the Nats at #25 overall falls somehow to #65 overall, despite nearly every ranking system having him 20 picks higher.  Crowe is a TJ survivor (aren’t they all these days?), with a 65 fastball and a couple of 55s on his other tools who was solid if unspectacular for USC this year.  Big guy, big arm, physical comparison to Joe Blanton.  I like this as a safe pick.
  • 3rd/#103: Nick Raquet, LHP from William & Mary.  BA #145, BDR #348.  A lefty weekend starter from a bad baseball school in a small baseball conference.  Raquet had good K/9 numbers, but also horrible BB/9 numbers, had an ERA in the 4s and was a non-entity on the rankings.  Where is this pick coming from?  He wasn’t anywhere even listed on the Virginia-only prospects lists on the various sites.  A cost-savings pick?  There’s still significant talent on the board, not the least of which is Tristan Beck from Stanford; is his injury worse than people thought?
  • 4th/#133: Cole Freeman, 2B senior from LSU.  BDR #429.  BA #166.  A senior sign, twitter reports that he’s 5’9″, has a short compact swing, can hit, has blazing speed, is high-energy and is plus-plus make-up.  Sounds great; this is a fourth round pick?  Sounds like an 8th rounder.  Still not sure what the Nats are doing.
  • 5th/#163: Brigham Hill, Jr RHP from TAMU.  BA #346.  MLB #159.  BDR #171.  Texas A&M’s #1/friday starter, went 8-3 with a 3.16 era in the tough SEC.  Smaller guy, throws low 90s.  50s on most of his pitches, plus change up.  I like a guy like this; he reminds me of Austin Voth in terms of draft pedigree and collegiate accomplishment.
  • 6th/#193: Kyle Johnston JR RHP from Texas.  BA #250, MLB #136, BDR #492.  Weekend starter who bounced around roles for Texas this year but had some very solid outings against good Big12 competition.  Not a ton of K/9, but two grade 60 pitches (fastball and cutter).  Profiles as a reliever, both by pitch capability and by stature (6’0″ right hander).  Not a bad pick here.
  • 7th/#223: Jackson Tetreault, J2 RHP from State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota.  BA #286.  I’m not a BA subscriber so I can’t read the scouting report, but his peripherals at his Juco (where a few others are getting drafted) are solid.  Worked as a starter, big K/9 numbers.
  • 8th/#253: Jared Brashner.  Coll Sr RHP from Samford.  BA #430.  We’re clearly in the senior sign territory; Brashner’s a reliever from Samford with nearly a walk an inning to go along with 46 Ks in 30 relief innings.
  • 9th/#283: Alex Troop, Coll Jr LHP from Michigan State.  BA #179 BDR #184.  Solid lefty with good numbers this year.  Not a bad 9th round pick, one who still rates on BA’s list.
  • 10th/#313: Trey Turner, Coll Jr LHP from Missouri State.  Unranked anywhere, limited time this year ; just 13 IP but 22 Ks in those 13 innings and a stellar BAA.  Didn’t pitch after March because … he tore his UCL.  So there’s your annual Nat draftee with TJ surgery.

First 10 rounds worth of picks breakdown:

  • 9 arms, 1 position player.
  • 10 college (1 juco), zero prep.
  • A few picks that seem like clear money savers: Raquet, Brashner, perhaps also Freeman.
  • Heavy influence in the South East: 6 of the 10 picks come from Texas, Louisiana or Florida).

Conclusion: We’ve talked about the risk of Romero.  I liked the Crowe pick.  I question the Raquet and Freeman picks.  I liked the two SEC starter picks in rounds 5 and 6, and I liked the 9th and 10th rounders too as good risks.  Clearly this draft is about arms for the Nats after picking mostly positional players in 2016.  No screwing around with prep players; they drafted a bunch of college guys to try to get them to the majors more quickly, likely to fill voids coming up in the next couple of years.

What do you guys think of it?


Draft Links of Use

  1. Mlbpipeline’s Draft Tracker for 2017
  2. All 10 rounds of slot bonus figures for 2017
  3. BA’s draft database, including link to get BPA
  4. Perfect Game to get profiles on more obscure draftees.

Draft Rankings referred to within here: