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Minor League Rotation Review – April 2014

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Austin Voth was great last year and has been good this year.  Photo via mlbdirt

Austin Voth was great last year and has been good this year. Photo via mlbdirt

We’re a month into the minor league season and nearly five turns through each minor league system rotation, so lets take a look to see how our starters are doing.

As with the major league rotation review, I’ve assigned grade letters to roughly judge each start done by our minor league staff, and then i’ve tacked on their overall stats for context.  Note that I generally give grades to those that get the starts in games, as well as those who pitch “starter length” outings.  You’ll see this much more frequently in the low-A section, where Hagerstown clearly has a “two-starter” system going for many of its guys; one guy will throw 5 innings, then the next guy throws 4.  So nearly the entire Hagerstown roster is getting “starter grades” right now.  I should also caveat that this analysis is “scouting the box score” analysis; I’ve not had a chance to see any of these guys in person, so I can’t comment on the luck factor involved with anyone (stats versus ability) other than inference analysis between ERA and FIP.

For each team I’ll list the current rotation as best as I can make it, then have a second section where we list the guys with spot-starts or who were in the rotation but are no longer (D/L trips, promoted, demoted, etc).  Then we’ll discuss, and then list those guys who are pushing for promotions and those guys who are in jeopardy of getting demoted (or, worse, released).

(Note: I wouldn’t be able to do this data tracking or this post without the great daily work by Luke Erickson at www.nationalsprospects.com.)  All stats here are as of 5/2/14, which means I grabbed one May start’s worth of stats for a couple of guys here and there.


AAA/Syracuse:

Pitcher Start Trend Line W/L ERA Whip FIP K/BB Ratio # of innings Apps/Starts
Roenicke A (3ip),F,B 0-2 5.84 1.54 4.10 7/7 12 5/3
Tatusko A/short,B-,B+,A,B 1-3 2.36 0.83 3.87 15/7 26.2 5/5
Treinen A-> upandback,C/short,B+ 0-0 0.87 1.16 3.58 8/5 10.1 3/3
Hill A,A+,C,A,C 3-1 2.35 0.91 3.68 29/4 30.2 5/5
Poveda F,F,A,F 1-3 9.82 2.07 5.13 12/10 18.1 4/4

 

Laffey A (took Treinen’s spot),A+,D+ 2-0 1.80 0.67 1.92 14/2 15 3/1
Rosenbaum D,A,C-,D/inc (injury)->D/L 1-1 4.50 1.35 4.18 9/5 20 4/4

Rotation Discussion:

A month in and the Syracuse Chiefs are mired in last place (though to be fair, only 3 games separate the entire division).   Opening day starter Danny Rosenbaum is already on the D/L with a possible torn UCL, possibly the latest in an epidemic of Tommy John surgeries throughout baseball (there’s been at least 14 MLB pitchers to go under the knife for this already in 2014 and quite a few more minor leaguers; I have a draft post on this topic coming).  His replacement in the rotation is journeyman and Ian Desmond-relative Josh Roenicke, who has struggled in his spot-start duties.  However, Roenicke isn’t the least effective starter in AAA; that distinction goes to late spring training acquisition Omar Poveda, who has gotten pretty well battered so far in his four starts.  One of these two guys likely is making way for recently demoted Taylor Jordan (well, assuming Jordan even makes it to AAA anytime soon; Doug Fister‘s return is complicated by the Nats needing another starter in-between; Jordan likely is sitting in AAA limbo until tuesday 5/6, then will settle into the AAA rotation).

Meanwhile, we’re seeing excellent springs so far out of Ryan TatuskoBlake Treinen (albeit in a SSS thanks to his being bounced up and down out of the Nats bullpen), Aaron Laffey and especially Taylor Hill.  Hill’s excellent 29/4 K/BB ratio stands out, as well as his sub 1.00 whip so far in 5 starts.   I think its fair to say that nobody expected him to have rocketed up the system like he has, given the fact that he was a college senior draftee with limited bonus and limited leverage.  I think its also worth noting Tatusko’s production in a swing-man role; quite similarly to his trade-mate Tanner Roark, he continues to produce at an advanced/MLFA age … could he be another “found gold” pitcher in our upper farm system?

We should also note that we have yet to see Brad Meyers, who remains on the D/L and has only thrown about 6 professional innings since 2011.

Bullpen Notables

The Syracuse bullpen has seen plenty of traffic to and from the majors: Aaron Barrett started in the majors and has seen time in Syracuse.  Ryan Mattheus and Xavier Cedeno have already both been up and back.  Nobody in the pen has much more than about 10 innings pitched, so we won’t make too many rash judgements.  So far Christian Garcia looks decent; his 12/2 K/BB ratio in 10 innings is promising but he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified injury.   Meanwhile Daniel Stange has struggled with his control; he has 10 walks in 12 innings.   We’ll talk more about bullpen guys deeper into the season.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Hill and perhaps Laffey, both of whom are pitching dominantly right now.   But neither are 40-man guys, and that (especially for Laffey) hurts him.  Laffey as a starter in AAA has been great, but he might be more useful as a lefty-match up guy.  Cedeno has been getting the MLB-bullpen covering call-ups but if Laffey was on the 40-man instead, it probably would have been him instead.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: Poveda for sure; his cash-only acquisition isn’t looking promising considering that a rotation spot is needed soon for Jordan.  Roenicke needs a couple of good outings to get his numbers up; with only 12 innings its hard to pass too harsh a judgement.  But, with very little push from the current AA rotation, its hard to see a reason why the organization needs to make a move anytime soon (see the next section for more).


AA/Harrisburg:

Pitcher Start Trend Line W/L ERA Whip FIP K/BB Ratio # of innings Apps/Starts
Schwartz F,F,B+,F,D+ 0-4 6.08 1.99 5.1 15/10 23.2 5/5
Rivero D-,B,B-,F,B+ 1-4 5.06 1.69 4.85 13/9 21.1 5/5
Gilliam F,B-,D,A 0-0 5.09 1.36 6.05 13/9 17.2 5/4
Purke F,D,F,F 0-5 9.30 2.11 6.55 14/13 20.1 5/5
Cole B-,A,D,F 2-1 3.63 1.57 2.82 16/4 22.1 5/5

 

Dupra B+ 1-0 0.00 0.9 4.35 3/3 3.1 1/0
Perry F -> d/l 0-0 5.63 1.5 3.07 6/3 8 5/0
Jackson A -> promoted 0-0 0.00 0.52 2.01 7/0 7.2 5/0
Bates B 0-0 5.68 1.66 2.97 12.2 6/0

Rotation Discussion:

Well, there’s not much joy in Harrisburg in terms of the rotation right now.   The team is already 7.5 games out of first and is in dead last in the Eastern League.  Four of the five starters in Harrisburg are, well, just awful right now.   I should note that the stats above do include one extra start for Matthew Purke; it didn’t help his cause.  Newly acquired Felipe Rivero has not acclimated well to Harrisburg, to say the least.  Blake Schwartz has not adjusted well to the jump to AA after his excellent season in Potomac last year.  The one bright spot seems to be A.J. Cole by ERA/FIP, but he’s still putting an awful lot of people on base (1.57 whip).

Sammy Solis remains on the AA D/L, along with a handful of other long-serving names in this organization (Paul DemnyRafael Martin and Pat Lehman).

Bullpen Notables

Zach Jackson already earned his promotion via 7 scoreless innings, though to be fair he really should have been in AAA to start (he’s a veteran minor leaguer and has been pitching at the AAA level for nearly a decade).  Matt Grace is faring well thus far, as is Richie Mirowski, while Gabriel Alfaro needs to get his control under control (he’s got 9 walks in 11 1/3 innings).

Most Deserving of a promotion: none of these guys are pushing for a promotion, now that Jackson is back in AAA where he belongs.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release: You have to think that Purke may be in jeopardy of being coverted to relief at this point.  Alfaro was a MLFA signing out of the Mexican league and may not be long for the organization if he keeps pitching this badly.   Gilliam was a throw-in to the Gio Gonzalez trade and is old for the level; he may get pushed out if someone from Potomac makes a case for promotion (which, thankfully for him, has yet to be the case; read on).

 


High-A/Potomac

Pitcher Start Trend Line W/L ERA Whip FIP K/BB Ratio # of innings Apps/Starts
Rauh B-,F-,C+,C- 1-1 4.43 1.57 4 15/7 20.1 5/4
Rpena F,D,F/inc,A-,A- 2-0 6.43 1.48 5.71 5/8 21 5/5
Mooneyham F,C-,A-,D/short,B- 2-1 3.32 1.63 6.71 7/19 19 5/4
Bacus A+,A+,A (into rotation for Encarnacion) 1-1 2.08 0.69 4.7 15/3 17.1 6/0
Simms (newly promoted; no Apr starts)

 

Dickson B+,F,B+,A 0-2 6.23 1.38 5.37 21/7 21.3 7/0
Encarnacion C+,B,F,D- ->d/l 1-2 4.00 1.94 5.88 14/12 18 4/4
Lee F-,F-,D,A -> d/l 0-2 10.05 1.74 2.33 23/8 14.1 5/4
Fister B (rehab) 0-0 0.00 1.5 2.16 3/0 4 1/1
Dupra A+,B+,A,A-> promoted 3-0 0.53 0.71 1.31 23/1 17 5/0

Rotation Discussion:

Potomac is sitting in 1st place easily with the rest of its division struggling so far.   But Its hard to see how they’re doing it with a rotation putting up numbers like this.  The only guy getting starts for Potomac in April with a respectable/impressive FIP was Nick Lee, and he’s on the D/L.  But even Lee’s numbers look completely weird: he had a 10 (ten!) ERA in his 14 innings, but an astounding 23 ks in 14 innings.  His numbers are completely spiked by two successive awful outings and he currently sits on the D/L with an unspecified but hopefully short-term injury.  Dakota Bacus earned his way into the rotation with a series of excellent long-relief outings; he replaces the also-injured opening day rotation starter Pedro Encarnacion, who himself struggled with his control (12 walks in 18 innings) before hitting the D/L.  Otherwise there’s not much notable in the Potomac rotation to talk about: Brett Mooneyham‘s advanced numbers show just how bad he’s really pitched; he currently has a 7/19 K/BB ratio in 19 innings.  He has more than twice the number of walks as he has strikeouts!  That’s not a recipe for success long-term.

Kylin Turnbull remains on the Hagerstown D/L, continuing to be a complete 2011 draft-day disappointment.

Bullpen Notables

The best reliever in Potomac thus far this season has already been bumped up; Brian Dupra posted a nifty 23/1 K/BB ratio and earned his way to AA.  Robert Benincasa already has 5 saves with good numbers.  Derek Self has great numbers and has given up just three base-runners in 10 innings thus far.  So the Nats are getting some great relief.  Gilberto Mendez hasn’t walked a guy yet and is one of the youngest guys in the league, so he’s clearly holding his own after posting a 0.91 ERA in low-A last year.

Most Deserving of a promotion: Outside of Dupra, its hard to pinpoint someone that really is pushing for a promotion out of this squad right now.  Bacus is pitching well but he’s just got a month of high-A experience; lets see how he does for a half season.  I could see the late-inning crew of Self, Benincasa and Bryan Harper possibly getting moved up sooner than later.  But none of the starters really are making a case for promotion right now.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion/release:  Clearly for me the guy in trouble is Mooneyham; you just can’t be walking that many guys and have as little swing-and-miss capabilities to counter-balance  your wildness.   Before his injury, Encarnacion was struggling with his command too; I can see him back in low-A.  Lastly Ronald Pena just is not fooling anybody right now; he’s got just 5 Ks in 20 innings and would be in more jeopardy if there weren’t other candidates ahead of him to replace at this point.

 


Low-A/Hagerstown

Pitcher Start Trend Line W/L ERA Whip FIP K/BB Ratio # of innings Apps/Starts
Pivetta A,A-,F,F,B+ 3-2 4.57 1.48 4.36 13/10 21.2 5/5
Voth A,D,A-,D/short 0-2 2.91 1.38 2.7 26/10 21.1 5/5
Giolito D-,A+,A,C-,C- 1-0 2.95 1.22 3.62 24/11 21.1 5/5
Anderson A,A+,F,D- 3-0 6.33 1.36 4.98 13/6 21.1 5/3
Johansen B,B+,F,C- 2-0 5.21 1.53 3.84 17/11 19 4/4

 

Suero D,A,B,A 3-0 1.20 0.88 3.53 13/2 21.2 5/0
Cooper B,A+,D 2-0 2.81 1.31 2.57 11/1 16 5/0
Jthomas  A+,A- 1-2 2.53 1.22 4.51 4/5 10.2 5/0
Ullmann B+ 0-0 0.00 0.8 2.67 9/2 10 4/0
Hollins A- 2-0 4.35 1.74 3.86 9/7 10.1 8/0

 

Silvestre B+,inc (inj)->d/l 0-0 3.00 1.33 2.24 7/2 6 2/2
Simms A,A,A,A+->promoted 0-0 0.98 0.82 2.05 20/2 18.1 5/0
Spann B+,A-,B+,B+->promoted 2-0 1.20 1.13 2.77 15/4 15 4/0

 

Rotation Discussion:

Hagerstown is taking the South Atlantic league by storm, leading its division by 5.5 games already.   And they’re getting some great pitching.  The team clearly seems to be doing “combo starts” with some of its guys: that’s why someone like Wander Suero has as many IP as the 5 guys in the “rotation.”  So, when it comes to judging starts nearly the entire staff in Hagerstown has “start length” outings to assign grades to.   I like what I see out of Austin Voth so far, and Lucas Giolito is clearly holding his own in full-season ball (both these guys feature more than a K/inning, which is great to see especially out of the undersized Voth).  Meanwhile we’re seeing some worrying wildness out of Jake Johansen, which will not quell the “he’s too big to be a starter so he’s destined for the bullpen” crowd.

Bullpen Notables

John Simms (11th rounder in 2012) and Matthew Spann (booty for the team’s sticking its nose into the David DeJesus waiver situation last year) have both already forced promotions thanks to excellent results.  Otherwise there really isn’t much in the way of a traditional “bullpen” in Hagerstown to talk about.

Most Deserving of a promotion: I’d say Voth and Jake Walsh, who older guys who are mowing guys down in Low-A and may need to be challenged by better/older hitters.

Most in Jeopardy of a demotion: One of the older guys on this staff (Dixon Anderson) isn’t putting up the numbers he needs to be putting up as a college senior 2011 draftee in low-A.  Youngster Nicholas Pivetta is also struggling with the jump to full-season ball out of JuCo and may be dumped back to XST at some point.  But it should also be said that we’re kind of squinting for bad performances out of the Low-A squad; both these guys’ numbers are better than practically anyone in AA right now.

 


Top Prospect Review

From a trending perspective for our top 10 prospect arms (in rough order of their typical rankings on prospect lists):

  • Giolito is succeeding so far, though isn’t as dominant yet to be pushing for a promotion to High-A
  • Cole is holding his own and is the best AA starter right now, but again isn’t entirely pushing for a AAA promotion just quite yet.
  • Solis has yet to appear thanks to a late spring training injury.
  • Rivero has really struggled since his arrival
  • Johansen has shown some wildness and not as much swing-and-miss stuff as he did in short-season ball.
  • Purke has been awful and it may be time to move him to the Pen.
  • Voth has been excellent and is probably the closest to a promotion.
  • Barrett and Treinien have both earned promotions to provide MLB cover, and when in AAA have been effective
  • Jefry Rodriguez is in XST and didn’t make a full-season team.

Conclusions:

So far, I must say i’m a bit disappointed in the performance of the AA squad, but its great to see the promise of the Low-A squad.  I’m slightly worried about how our closer-to-the-majors top prospect arms are looking; lets re-visit in a month and see how it looks.

 

Harrisburg/AA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Nathan Karns was the story of the year for AA Harrisburg's squad.  Photo Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Nathan Karns was the story of the year for AA Harrisburg’s squad. Photo Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

This is the 3rd in the 2013 Pitching staff review series, here’s a review of Harrisburg/AA’s pitching staff for 2013.  Other parts of the 2013 series: Washington/MLB’s 2013 review and Syracuse/AAA’s 2013 review.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012′s version (featuring Danny Rosenbaum) and 2011′s version (featuring Brad Peacock) of this post specifically for Harrisburg/AA.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Harrisburg 2013 Stats page or via Fangraph’s Harrisburg Stats page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker.

Harrisburg starters.  The rotation started the season with Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns.  It ended with Karns, Cole, Treinen, Hill and Ray.   There were quite a few changes along the way.  Lets take a look at the AA starters:

  • Brian Broderick got the opening day start for Harrisburg but didn’t last very long, giving the team 7 mostly bad starts before hitting the D/L.  He got one more rehab start in the GCL and ended the season (I believe) on Potomac’s D/L list.  It doesn’t matter; Broderick’s time with the organization is likely done after quite a whirlwind trip; he was a 2010 rule-5 draftee from St. Louis who pitched for our MLB squad for nearly two months before being jettisoned back to the Cardinals.   St. Louis eventually waived him and we grabbed him in July 2012.  He toiled for AA last year and started there again this year.   Outlook for next season: MLFA, with another organization or perhaps out of affiliated baseball.
  • Blake Treinen, aka one of the “other guys” in the Michael Morse trade, quietly put together a pretty good season for the Senators.  In 21 games and 118 innings he had a 3.64 ERA and a nearly an identical 3.67 FIP.  He’s not a strike out guy (86 in 118 innings for a 6.5 K/9 rate, and he gave up more base-runners than you’d like to see (1.33 whip), which is odd considering his pedigree as one of the hardest throwers in the Nats farm system.  He missed a chunk of time this season with two separate D/L trips but made it back just in time to get hammered as the 4th starter in the playoffs.  I projected Treinen as an eventual back-of-the-bullpen arm thanks to his velocity, but for the time being the team should want to see if he can continue to develop as a starter.  Outlook for next season: back in AA as a starter, looking to push to AAA mid-season.
  • Paul Demny got 15 incredibly inconsistent starts for Harrisburg this year before a D/L trip resulted in his losing his rotation spot and then eventually losing his AA spot.  He ended the season in Potomac’s rotation but (likely out of respect for what the Potomac guys accomplished this year) did not participate in the High-A playoffs.  AA numbers for the year: 5-6, 4.95 ERA but 86 K/s in 83+ innings.  Outlook for next season: you have to think that he’s done as a starter, having failed to make the leap to AA for the second year running.  I”m predicting he’s in the AA bullpen.
  • Caleb Clay got 13 AA starts after signing as a MLFA before finishing the year in Syracuse.  See the AAA write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: in the San Francisco organization.
  • Nathan Karns followed up his 2012 Nats Minor League Pitcher of the year with a dominant season at AA: 10-6 with a 3.26 ERA and 155 Ks in 132 innings.  He was the first minor league reinforcement starter to get the call-up to the majors this year. (here’s my “first look” post at his 5/28/13 debut).  In three MLB starts he got hit hard and was eventually returned (after an 11 day layoff) to the AA rotation.  He finished the season strong and got one great playoff win, but was hammered in the season-ending championship for a sour end to a great season.  Nonetheless, we saw the potential and the organization’s patience has been rewarded.  For now Karns remains a starter.  Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
  • Rob Gilliam ended up being the primary 6th starter/swing-man for Harrisburg this year, covering in the rotation as its original members got promoted, injured or demoted.  The “forgotten man” in the big Gio Gonzalez trade, Gilliam gave the Senators 18 starts and 90 innings of 4.40 ERA ball this year.  Nothing great but nothing awful; right now I see no reason to think he’s not going to serve in a similar same innings-eating role next year.  Outlook for next season: AA swing-man/spot-starter.
  • Taylor Hill had an exceptional season, stepping up from a guy who was throwing 5.00 ERA ball in low-A at the beginning of 2012 to a guy who was making a name for himself with sub 3.00 ERA pitching in AA by the end of 2013.  He earned a promotion out of Potomac with 14 excellent starts and continued the same work in AA.  His K/9 isn’t phenomenal (around 5.5 K/9 between both levels) and his FIPs show that his ERA was a bit lucky at both levels (3.38 FIP in high-A, 4.06 in AA) but the guy clearly knows how to pitch.  I think he’ll be a key man in the AA rotation next year.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
  • Robbie Ray showed why I kept my faith in him despite his 6.56 ERA blow-up in Potomac in 2012.  He dominated high-A in the first half of the season (10.71 K/9 in 16 High-A starts) and continued the great work as one of the youngest starters in all of AA by the time the season was over.  Final AA numbers: 5-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.42 whip with 60 K’s in 58 innings.  As we all know by now, Ray was the feature player in the Doug Fister acquisition and clearly made a huge impression on the Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski.  I’m sorry to see him go but I’m happy with the return he brought back.  Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
  • Taylor Jordan passed through AA during his dream 2013 season, going 7-0 with a0.83 ERA in 9 appearances.  See Washington write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: AAA rotation.
  • A. J. Cole continued the trend of Potomac pitchers earning promotions, becoming the 5th of 5 starters who began the  year in Potomac to matriculate to AA.  He did not disappoint, going 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA and greater than a K/inning to solidify his status as one of the top prospects in the organization.  The Michael Morse trade that engineered his return is looking better and better for the team.  Outlook for next season: AA rotation to start, looking for a mid-season promotion to AAA.
  • Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
    • Matt Swynenberg got a few spot-starts heare and there; see the reliever section.
    • Ryan Tatusko dropped down to give AA a spot start; see AAA post.
    • Trevor Holder and Tyler Herron each got a spot start but were primarily relievers; see the reliever section.

Harrisburg Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season.  We’ll start with the closers and then run down the relievers by innings pitched.

  • Aaron Barrett was the primary closer for Harrisburg, earning 26 saves, striking out 69 in 50 innings and posting a 2.15 ERA.  His FIP was significantly lower (1.87) thanks to an inflated BABIP for the year.  Barrett’s performance on the year necessitated his protection on the 40-man roster: he was added in November ahead of the rule-5 draft.  His late August injury does not seem to be that threatening; the organization clearly thinks he’s got potential to help and i’m sure he’ll feature at some point in 2014 to cover for bullpen injuries.  Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen, likely the closer again.
  • Tyler Herron is an interesting case: signed out of the independent leagues, he had not appeared in affiliated ball since 2009.  He quickly showed he was too good for High-A and stuck around as a back of the bullpen guy in Harrisburg the rest of the season, taking over for Barrett when he hit the D/L in August.  Final season stats: 6-2, 5 saves,  a 3.11 ERA, and an even better FIP.  Even better: 58 K’s in just 46 1/3 innings.  He proved to be a very versatile arm for this team.  Despite the fact that he was a MLFA signing last off-season, he’s not listed on BA’s MLFA list for this off-season; is he still with the organization?  I hope so: I think he can be useful going forward. Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen, if he’s still with the org.
  • Matt Swynenberg served as a longer reliever out of the bullpen and posted a 3.16 ERA in 74 innings over 36 appearances and 4 starts.   He continues his steady progression up the organization but remains off the prospect-radar.  He’s been rule-5 eligible two  years running now and hasn’t been sniffed.  He enters his last  year of pre-MLFA possibly topped out in the organization thanks to a numbers game in the AAA bullpen.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen.
  • Neil Holland was another big arm in the Harrisburg bullpen this year, posting 63 K’s in 50 relief innings to the tune of a 2.84 ERA/2.43 FIP.   Holland was a 2010 draftee who was Rule-5 eligible this year, but he slipped through the cracks and the Nats get to keep him off the 40-man roster for one more season.   He’s under-sized but has put up great numbers wherever he’s been; it is just a matter of time before he gets his shot.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to start, with a good likelihood of moving up soon.
  • Pat McCoy failed to make the jump from AA to AAA and was demoted back to Harrisburg after 7 ineffective AAA appearances.  Repeating AA for the third year, he posted a 4.32 ERA in 41 middle relief innings.  He exhaused his 6 years in the organization and has already signed elsewhere for 2014.  Outlook for next season: in the Detroit organization.
  • Matt Grace was one of NINE hurlers who earned promotions out of Potomac this year, and could be the next “sneaky good loogy” prospect that the organization develops.  He transitioned away from starting after the 2011 season and has seen his numbers improve.  In 38 AA innings this year he posted a 3.79 ERA but better looking 2.88 FIP.   He has good control but seems hittable; his career BABIP is especially high.  As with Holland, Grace passed through his first year of Rule-5 eligibility this year without any interest; he needs to push for a AAA promotion to get onto the MLB radar in 2014.   Outlook for next season: AA bullpen to continue as the lefty matchup guy.
  • Ian Krol exploded onto the scene for the organization, giving up just 2 earned runs in his first 21 appearances for Harrsiburg and getting a surprise  call-up in June.  See the MLB write-up for more.  Outlook for next season: in Detroit’s organization
  • Ryan Perry started the year in the AAA rotation under the National’s grand plan to make him a starter, and the experiment failed.  8 starts later, he boasted a 7.93 ERA.  He hit the D/L, then was demoted to Harrisburg.  There, he was outrighted off the 40-man roster and returned to the bullpen, where he was mediocre (4.43 ERA).   Outlook for next season: he has to show he can get AA hitters out; you have to think he’s starting in the AA bullpen again.
  • Richie Mirowski continues to impress; he has never posted an ERA above 2.61 at any level he’s appeared.  Not bad for a college senior draftee from a no-name college in the 45th round who likely signed for a bonus small enough to fit into the scout’s wallet who brought him his paperwork.  He posted a 1.50 ERA across 48 high-A innings and earned his promotion.  For Harrisburg he had a 12.63 K/9 rate in 20 innings and posted a 1.12 FIP in a small later-season sample size.  Not too shabby.  Outlook for next season: AA bullpen again, looking to force another promotion.
  • Pat Lehman was sent to AA after being a successful AAA guy in 2012 thanks to a numbers game; he promptly posted a 5.49ERA, got hurt and missed most of the season after just 13 appearances.  He did appear in 8 rehab games in the rookie league in August but did not make it back out of Florida.   Here’s the problem with Lehman; he has nothing to prove in AA; he already earned his stripes in AAA.  But is there enough room for him on the AAA roster in 2014?  He enters his 6th pro season and will face MLFA next year unless he pushes his way to the 40-man roster.   Outlook for next season: AAA bullpen competition, a possible release candidate?
  • Marcos Frias posted a 6.16 ERA in 19 innings and was dumped back to High-A.  There he posted an even worse 7.59 ERA and was released mid-season.  Outlook for next season: in another organization or out of baseball.
  • Trevor Holder was repeating AA and had posted respectable numbers through the first month of the season when he was suddenly released to make room for Taylor Jordan‘s promotion on 5/8/13.  I was shocked; we were talking about a 3rd round pick after all.  He was immediately picked up by San Diego and possibly proved why the organization knows more than we do; he dropped down to high-A and was lit up in the California league (a 6.39 ERA in 100 innings).  Now, its the California league (land of small ball parks and high altitudes) so the numbers are inflated (just look at what happened to A.J. Cole out there in 2012), but the story remains the same; Holder’s high draft pick was viewed at the time as the Nats “punting” on the pick to save money, and Holder never really proved anyone wrong.  Outlook for next season: in San Diego’s organization.
  • Michael Broadway started in Harrisburg and quickly earned a promotion to Syracuse.  See the AAA writeup for more.  Outlook for next season: in the Toronto organization.
  • Bill Bray returned to the organization that drafted him, and returned to his “home” team; he grew up in Virginia Beach, went to William & Mary and in a bit of a personal interest item is cousins with a friend of mine; he was counting on him making the MLB team and reaping the benefits of free tickets for family and friends :-) .  However he struggled in the spring and was sent to minor league camp.  He stuck around Viera to work on his mechanics, finally got to Harrisburg and then, after just four outings, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.   He’s a MLFA again this off-season and it remains to be seen where he picks up.  I’d like to see him back here again, but Bray’s representatives have to be looking at the crowded bullpen and may suggest he continue his career elsewhere.   That is if he can recover from his latest injury.  To say that Bray has “unconventional” mechanics would be an understatement, and it is no shock that he’s struggled with arm issues his whole career.  Outlook for next season: MLFA, in another organization.
  • Other Relievers who appeared in AA of note:

    • Christian Garcia pitched 4 rehab innings during his rehab tour of the organization.  See AAA write-up for more.
    • Ryan Mattheus pitched 4 innings of rehab over three games recovering from his broken hand.  See the MLB write-up for more.
    • Brian Rauh got a one-game call-up to provide bullpen cover.  See the high-A write-up for more.
    • Rob Wort pitched 3 AA innings before getting demoted to Potomac, where he spent the rest of the year.   See the high-A write-up for more.
    • Jose Lozada is normally a SS; he pitched one inning somewhere along the line in what likely was a blow-out loss.

Summary

Harrisburg got a ton of really good pitching this year, both from the starters and from the relievers.  And a ton of it matriculated up over the course of the year from Potomac.  Three guys on this squad jumped straight to the majors, and it isn’t hard to see another couple of these guys getting MLB debuts in 2014.

 

Syracuse/AAA Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2013

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Roark was the story of the year from Syracuse. Photo via milb.com

Roark was the story of the year from Syracuse. Photo via milb.com

2nd in a series: here’s the opener, reviewing the Major league squad.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2012′s version (featuring John Lannan) and 2011′s version (featuring Tommy Milone) of this post for AAA Syracuse.

All stats are courtesy of either milb.com’s Syracuse Stats page or via Fangraph’s Syracuse Stats page.   Also useful here are the Big Board and the Nats Draft Tracker.

Syracuse starters.  The rotation started the season with Ohlendorf, Roark, Maya, Perry and Rosenbaum.  It finished the year with Maya, Tatusko, Rosembaum, Mandel and Clay.  Here’s an overview of the starters Syracuse used, starting with the original 5.

  • Ross Ohlendorf took a minor league gig with the Nationals to try to revitalize his career and went a somewhat pedestrian looking 4-6 in 13 starts.  His FIP (3.49) was better than his ERA (4.22) and his K/9 was good as he revamped his windup.  A streak of good starts led to his June call-up, where he basically spent the rest of the season as the Nats’ long-man/spot starter.  He tired as a starter, only going past the 5th inning three times, and Davey Johnson seemed hesitatant to use him because of it.  Outlook for next season: he did enough to get tendered a contract (which he quickly signed; 1yr/$1.25M), and seemingly he will slot back in as the long-man/spot-starter role for the MLB team.  He doesn’t seem to have enough to compete and win the 5th starter competition.  Will the team dump him to AAA as an inexpensive starter insurance policy?  I doubt it for now; they probably opt to keep Ohlendorf as the last guy out of the pen.
  • Tanner Roark started in the rotation, got shelled in his 2nd and (especially) his 3rd starts, and got dumped to the bullpen.  He toiled there for weeks before getting another shot in the rotation, and when he did he did very well.  By the time he got called up in August he had recovered from his 3 2/3 inning 10-run debacle in early April to post a 9-3 record with a 3.15 ERA and a 0.99 whip in AAA.  All he did upon arriving in the majors is pitch lights-out (a 252 ERA+) in 50 innings mixed with starts and relief apperances.  Outlook for next season: he’ll compete for the 5th starter job in spring but may not win it.  Its hard to imagine a guy who threw 50+ innings of 1.50 ERA ball to NOT make the team the following spring; he could end up replacing Ohlendorf as the long-man/spot starter for the MLB team.
  • Yunesky Maya made nearly a complete season worth of starts for Syracuse, going 8-8 with a 3.87 ERA.   However in his third (and last) opportunity to pitch for the major league club he got hammered, which led to a DFA in late May and an outright to Syracuse.  Maya pitched out the string, was not called up in September and was released in late November.  Outlook for next season: he has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta, closing the book on an unsatisfying tenure with the Nationals organization.
  • Ryan Perry started the year in the rotation under the National’s grand plan to make him a starter, and the experiment failed.  8 starts later, he boasted a 7.93 ERA.  He hit the D/L, then was demoted to Harrisburg.  There, he was outrighted off the 40-man roster and returned to the bullpen, where he was mediocre (4.43 ERA).  How odd; last year we were worried about Perry getting that needed 4th option; now he’s an org arm in AA.  This guy was pitching in a playoff team’s bullpen at 22, now he’s turning 27 and banished in the mid-minors.  Amazing.  Outlook for next season: he has to show he can get AA hitters out; you have to think he’s starting in the AA bullpen again, unless a numbers dearth pushes him by attrition to the AAA bullpen.
  • Danny Rosenbaum had a whirlwind spring, getting rule-5 drafted by Colorado and then subsequently returned in late March, just in time to pack his bags for upstate New York and take his spot in the back end of the Syracuse Rotation.  Rosenbaum led the 2013 rotation in starts and innings, going 7-11 with a 3.87 ERA.  He did not earn a September call-up, nor was he selected in 2013′s Rule-5 draft.  Unfortunately, Rosenbaum seems to have found his ceiling and may need a change of scenery to see if he can move forward.  Outlook for next season: one more season as Syracuse’s innings eating lefty, then a minor league free agent at the end of 2014.
  • Ryan Tatusko gave Syracuse a full season of swing-man production, starting in the pen and then ending in the rotation.  Final season stats: 5-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 28 appearances (18 starts).  Nothing special here: I just wish I knew what happened to the guy who was a lights-out starter for Texas’ AA franchise when we acquired him in 2010.  Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent, likely pitching in another organization.
  • Caleb Clay gave both AA and AAA 13 starts a-piece, finishing the year in Syracuse with excellent numbers (5-2, 2.49 ERA in 13 starts in AAA).   He turned out to be an excellent minor league FA signing for the organization; too bad they couldn’t keep him for 2014.  I was somewhat disappointed to see  him signing elsewhere, thinking that he could be a sneaky good pitcher for the Nats someday.  Outlook for next season: signed with San Francisco as a minor league free agent for 2014, where he stands a halfway decent chance of contributing at the MLB level, considering how bad Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum were in 2013.
  • Jeff Mandel continued to serve as the rubber arm swing man for Syracuse, a role that he’s essentially played for the Nats AAA affiliate in one way or another since 2010.  This year he got 10 starts and 100+ innings and continued to show unfortunately that his peak is as an organizational/innings eating arm.  Outlook for next season: Minor League Free Agent; he could sign on again with Washington as he did last off-season but he has to think that his path to the majors is easier with another team.
  • Chris Young was signed to a combo deal last off-season to give the team some starter insurance.  Instead he started hurt, pitched horribly in 7 starts, then went back on the D/L for essentially the rest of the season.   He gave up 50 hits in 32 AAA innings and was smoked for a 7.88 ERA.  Outlook for next season: the Nats must have seen something they liked during his rehab assignments, because they’ve already signed him to a minor league contract for 2014.  AAA rotation, hopefully healthy this time.
  • Brad Meyers was rule-5 drafted by the Yankees in 2012, got hurt for them, and was eventually returned in time for the 2013 season, but spent the entire year on the D/L.  He’s got enough time to be a MLFA but isn’t on BA’s list so I presume he’s still in the organization.  Outlook for next season: competing for a rotation spot in AAA; likely to be released if he doesn’t make the team.
  • Other guys who got spot starts here and there:
    • Matt Torra had 5 starts in June/July then got released.
    • Taylor Hill got a couple of spot starts in August and was sent back to AA; see Harrisburg’s writeup for more on him.
    • Christian Garcia got a couple of “starts” doing re-hab assignments; see the reliever section.
    • Tyler Robinson had a spot start and an extended outing; see the reliever section.
    • Paul Demny got a spot start call-up and was sent back down; see Harrisburg’s writeup for more.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps.  We’ll organize relievers by looking at closers first, then by innings pitched.

  • Erik Davis was Syracuse’s closer in name for a bulk of the season, earning 15 saves while posting a 3.10 ERA in 52+ innings.  He was a Sept 2012 pre-rule5 40-man addition and spent a week in the MLB pen in June before getting recalled for September.  Out of his 10 MLB appearances he gave up zero runs in 9 of them and showed excellent middle-reliever stuff (12/1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings).  Outlook for next season: I don’t think he can crack the 7-man MLB bullpen so he’ll be in Syracuse again, but there’s a reason he got added to the 40-man and I think he features as MLB bullpen insurance throughout the year.
  • Michael Broadway was a MLFA signing who gave the organization excellent back-of-the-bullpen production the whole year, starting with Harrisburg and ending with Syracuse.  Outlook for next season: he has already signed a MLFA deal with Toronto for 2014, somewhat of a disappointment.  Like Clay, I would have liked to have kept this guy around if possible.
  • Michael Crotta was another organizational-filling MLFA signing in 2013 who, like Broadway, toiled well and ate innings in Syracuse.   Outlook for next season: MLFA again, likely signing elsewhere.
  • Tyler Robertson was a June 2013 waiver claim off of Minnesota, grabbed to help address the team’s lack of left-handed relievers.  Robertson pitched decently for Syracuse but was passed on the Loogy depth chart by several others.  He was outrighted in November ahead of the Rule-5 draft.  Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen, though if i’m not mistaken he’s got enough service time to be a MLFA.  I wonder if his outright and acceptance of assignment to Syracuse was effectively the Nats signing him to a 2014 ML contract?  This is a frequent question and I’m not enough of an expert on baseball transactions to know the answer.
  • Xavier Cedeno was an April 2013 waiver claim off of Houston (of all teams), who spent most of the season in Syracuse (save for a quick June call-up).  In September, he pitched pretty effectively, giving up just one run in 9 outings and 11+ innings for the big team.  He clearly hasn’t shown the team enough to be counted on as the go-to loogy, considering the Nats off-season trade for Jeremy Blevens and their talk of using the likes of Ross Detwiler and/or Sammy Solis as lefty reliever help in 2014.  And I know that many here think Cedeno is making the MLB roster; I just don’t see it right now.    Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen.
  • Mark Lowe was a mid-season MLFA pickup after getting released by the Angels.  He opted out of his contract at the end of the minor league season when he wasn’t getting added to the 40-man or called-up.   Outlook for next season: MLFA
  • Cole Kimball just never made it back from shoulder surgery and was outrighted in July.  He had an 8.06 ERA this year in 25 2/3 innings.   Outlook for next season: MLFA, likely out of baseball unfortunately.  Shoulder surgeries are just a killer.
  • Fernando Abad was a MLFA signing last off-season who pitched great for Syracuse and earned a call-up in May.   He toiled in the pen decently most of the year for the big-club but wasn’t considered valuable enough to keep.  The team DFA’d him ahead of this year’s rule-5 draft and then worked out a trade with our favorite GM Billy Beane.  Outlook for next season: in Oakland’s organization.
  • Christian Garcia got just 8 1/3 AAA innings this year (and 13 1/3 total in the minors on all rehab assignments) after getting hurt in spring training as the team tried to stretch him out as a starter.  I think the team now sees the error of its ways with Garcia, a fragile guy who has survived multiple surgeries to this point.  His stuff is so good, he’s a shoe-in for a MLB job if he’s healthy, but who can count on him to be healthy at this point?   Outlook for next season: if healthy, he’s competing for a 6th/7th inning role in the MLB bullpen.   He’s got plenty of options left though, so its likely he starts in the AAA bullpen given the crowded nature of the MLB pen right now.
  • Other Relievers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league free agent in another organization.
    • Jeremy Accardo: signed in February, released in June after a 5.56 ERA in 22+ innings.  He did not resign anywhere and may be done.
    • Bobby Bramhall was signed in November, and released 3 weeks into the season after posting a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings to make room for Cedeno & Young on the roster.   He was picked up by Philadelphia and ended the season demoted to their AA team.
    • J.C. Romero opted out of his contract after 2 months despite 15 decent apperances; it was clear the Nats weren’t calling him up and were favoring other loogy candidate acquisitions.  He was picked up by Cleveland, threw two innings and apparently went on the D/L.
    • Pat McCoy failed to make the jump from AA to AAA and was demoted back after 7 ineffective appearances; see the Harrisburg write-up for more.
    • Brian Dupra was called up for one game oddly; he spent most of the season in low- and high-A.  See Potomac’s write-up for more.

Summary

Despite the nature of AAA these days as being a “spare parts” storage team, Syracuse produced a couple of very pleasant surprises for this team.  Ohlendorf went from being a throw-away MLFA signing to a productive MLB long man.  Roark was one step from the dreaded “org guy/MLFA” category, and when given a chance pitched fantastically at the MLB level.  Plus, the development of loogy depth in the form of Robertson and Cedeno will serve the organization well.

 

July 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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A.J. Cole is having a good 2013. Photo: AP Stock

A.J. Cole is having a rebound 2013 for sure. Photo: AP Stock

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).  I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.


AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

  • Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
  • Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
  • Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
  • Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
  • Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C
  • Mandel: D->back to bullpen
  • Robertson: F

Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system.   Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season.   Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization.  The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).

Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month.  Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation.  Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?

In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled.   Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season.  (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).

 


AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

  • Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
  • Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
  • Cole: A+,A
  • Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
  • Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+
  • Herron: D
  • Swynenberg: A-
  • Grace: B
  • Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
  • Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L

Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now.   Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable.  Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).

The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. ColeRobbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there.  Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts.  Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing.  This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors.  I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.

 


High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

  • Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
  • Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
  • Solis: A-,D,A-
  • Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
  • Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)
  • Fischer: A,B
  • Holt: A
  • Ray: -> promoted
  • Pineyro: A -> traded
  • Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
  • Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13

Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues.   They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players.   And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half.  Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis.   Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be.  Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength.   Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013.  He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).

Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg.  He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011.  It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter.  He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.


Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

  • Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
  • Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
  • Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
  • Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
  • Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+
  • RPena: B,B+
  • Harper: | | | B,B+
  • Meza: B
  • Purke: -> promoted
  • Anderson: -> d/l

Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown.   Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19).   Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent  years.   Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for.    Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling.  Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts.  Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).


Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

  • Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
  • Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
  • Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
  • DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
  • Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
  • Ullmann: | | | F,B+
  • Hollins: B,B+
  • Bafidis: D+
  • Medina: A-
  • Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen
  • Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
  • Turnbull: C -> promoted

We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far.  Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA.  Joel Barrientos: 4.66.  Deion Williams: 9.42.  Ugh.  More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far.  2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far.  He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs.  5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A.  Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.

I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement.   He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else.  Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.


GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

  • JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
  • Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
  • Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
  • Suero: B,B+,A
  • Valdez: A
  • Ott: B,B,C
  • DeRosier: B,B-
  • KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
  • Pivetta: B-,B+,A
  • Spezial: A
  • Webb: A
  • Voth: A -> promoted
  • Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted

It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint.  If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?”   Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown.   DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising.  Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).

 

 

June 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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Taylor Jordan is the big name in the Minor League Rotations this month.  Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

Taylor Jordan is the big name in the Minor League Rotations this month. Photo via wffn.net/hueytaxi on flikr.com

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013 and May 2013‘s post for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the Rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).

All stats were as of 7/1/13 and may be slightly changed now with additional starts.


AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

  • Maya: B+,D+,C+
  • Tatusko: C -> hburg spot start and back,B+,D-,D
  • Rosenbaum: B,B+,D,C-,B-,D
  • Roark: A-,A
  • Clay: B,C,A
  • Mandel: D-,A-,D,D-
  • Perry:  demoted
  • Young: still on the D/L; no starts in June
  • Demny: D- -> back down
  • Ohlendorf: B+ -> promoted
  • Torra: D,D-,C+->released

Discussion: The AAA rotation was rather tumultuous to follow in June.  Only Danny Rosenbaum made all of his expected starts.   Yunesky Maya nursed an injury and recognition of the looming ignomious end to his Nats career after his outright off the 40-man.  Ryan Tatusko continues to struggle in a starting role.  Tanner Roark always seems to do well in his spot-starts and may keep his gig in the rotation starting in July with the struggles of fellow swingman Jeff Mandel.   Caleb Clay has done very well since his promotion; he holds a 2.21 ERA in AAA and looks like quite a MLFA find so far.  Paul Demny wasn’t ready for AAA and got hammered in his one spot-start.  The team ran out of patience with Matt Torra and released him with a 5.53 ERA through 5 starts in April and May.  Ryan Perry‘s future in the organization is in question after being demoted to AA and successfully being outrighted off the 40-man roster.  Chris Young remains in organizational limbo, having not pitched in nearly 6 weeks.  Lastly the one success story: Ross Ohlendorf‘s patience has paid off with his promotion and his continued presence in the Nats bullpen.

 


AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

  • Gilliam: D,A+,D,D,D-
  • Treinen: B+,B,B,A,C-
  • Demny: -> up/back,A-,A+,D,F-
  • Karns: returned/11 day layoff,C,A
  • Hill: A
  • Broderick: still on the D/L: no June Starts
  • Tatusko A (rain driven spot start->back to AAA)
  • Clay: A+,B,A -> promoted
  • Rauh: demoted
  • Jordan: A,A+,A+,A+,A- (pitch limit) -> promoted

Harrisburg’s rotation has now been picked twice by the Nats for a starter to promote; Nathan Karns struggled in 3 spot starts before being returned and looked rusty in his return, while Taylor Jordan‘s 2013 continues to be magical as he holds a sub 3.00 ERA through his two MLB starts (though he’s likely to be returned once all the Nats regular rotation guys return from D/L stints).  As for the rest of the Harrisburg Rotation in June: Rob Gilliam has mostly struggled since his promotion.  Blake Treinen continues to be the staff work-horse, leading the team in starts and innings.  Paul Demny got a spot start in AAA that seemed more due to schedule availability than performance; Demny continues to sport the same mid 4.00 ERA that he’s had essentially for his whole career in the Nats farm system.  Taylor Hill has had a couple of very nice debut starts on the heels of a sterling run of starts in Potomac.


High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

  • Ray: A,A,F,D-,C+
  • Cole: B-,A+,A,B-,C+
  • Pineyro: D
  • Schwartz: A,F,D+,C-
  • Rauh F,A
  • Detwiler: C- rehab
  • Solis: C-,C- -> shelved for weeks
  • Sylvestre: D->demoted back to short/A spot start
  • Hill: A+,A,A+,A- -> promoted

Robbie Ray and A.J Cole continue to be the Potomac workhorses, both being high over-slot 2010 high school pitcher draftees and both with highly varying degrees of expectations both from Nats prospect followers and from the organization.  Both guys pitched in a double header that new Delaware resident Keith Law took in and he posted his 6/30/13 blog review of all the starters involved.   The link is insider-only (which everyone should be who wants to read ESPN’s premier content) but Law’s consensus seems to be this: Cole’s taken a step back since his last (2011) opinion and Ray is only projecting as a 5th starter at best.  You’d hope for more out of these two guys, given their draft pedigree and bonus money paid.  Sammy Solis threw 2 early June starts and hasn’t appeared since in a concerning development for the 2010 2nd rounder coming back from TJ surgery.   Ivan Pineyro‘s high-A debut went roughly, but he’ll presumably get a few more chances with few other viable candiates right now.  Despite a couple of up-and-down June starts Blake Schwartz maintains the best season-long numbers of any of Potomac starter right now.  And i’ll make mention of it here; its amazing to think that Taylor Jordan started 2013 as the #2 starter in Potomac and is now making (near) quality starts in the majors.


Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

  • Anderson: D,A+,D+,D-
  • Mooneyham: D-/short,A-,B,D,A-
  • Lee: B-,A-,C,F,C+
  • Encarnation: B,F,D (took one for the team),C
  • Purke: A,D,B-,A-,A+
  • Rauh: C
  • Lopez: D+->back down from spot-start
  • RPena:  ->demoted to bullpen?->7 day d/l
  • Hudgins: -> demoted to short/A

Dixon Anderson and Pedro Encarnacion‘s monthly grade lines look poor, but their season-long stats are still decent (ERAs of right around 3.20, WHIPs of right around 1.2, about 2-1 K/BB ratios).   Brett Mooneyham‘s starts are looking dominant as they should be, repeating the level as a college draftee.  Matthew Purke‘s performances were a highlight for Nats farm system fans everywhere; after the month ended he was promoted to Potomac.   As for the rest of the starters, there’s room for concern.  Nick Lee and Ronald Pena both sport 1.50 WHIPs.   Hagerstown has already graduated a number of arms this season and may struggle to re-stock.


Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

  • Turnbull: A,C-
  • Johansen: B+,C
  • Orlan: C+,A,C-
  • DWilliams: B,D,F
  • Barrientos: A-
  • Selsor: | | B-,F,C+
  • Hudgins: | | B-
  • Lopez: | | F- -> demoted

Auburn’s season kicked off June 17th, so we’ve only gotten a brief glimpse of the “Rotation.”  So far, some up and down.  Kyle Turnbull has looked good (as he very well should, having been demoted from full-season ball).  Robert Orlan‘s ERA looks great (1.38) but his walks are too high (9 in 13 innings).  Speaking of walks, Joel Barrientos has 12 walks against 3 strikeouts in his 11 2/3 innings so far; that’s not going to be sustainable.  Deion Williams has been hit hard thus far.  And 2013 2nd round (our first pick) Jake Johansen has three relatively wild outings under his belt; 8 innings, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts.  Of note; Reynaldo Lopez‘s “F-” outing was a 1 1/3, 7 run debacle giving him a nifty 47.25 ERA.


GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

  • Suero: A,D
  • JRodriguez: B-,A
  • Silvestre: A,C
  • Valdez: C+
  • Voth: B-
  • DRamos: A

As with Auburn, the GCL season didn’t start until mid June (June 21st to be exact) so the “rotation” is still shaking out.  And frankly, those who get “starts” aren’t exactly pitching “starter” outings.  For example: the IP leader at the time of this writing is Jefry Rodriguez with 10 2/3 thrown over 3 starts.  So the letter grades here are mostly  misleading, given that they’re for 2-3 inning stints.  Nonetheless, Wander SueroRyan Ulliman, and Austin Voth look good in the early goings.

Monthly Check-in with Minor League Pitching Staffs

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Robbie Ray is having a nice bounce-back 2013 so far. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

In 2011, I managed to do “Rotational Review” posts for both the MLB team and the minor league system for the whole summer.   That turned out to be a pretty hefty time commitment, and an endeavor that I couldn’t keep up with.  I managed to do all 33 MLB rotation reviews but gave up on the minor league systems around the all-star break. For the entirety of 2012 I never once published much of an in-season look at any of the minor league teams.  But I want to stay aware of the minor league pitchers; its basically the reason I started this blog.  I wanted to be up on the rising talent, always on the lookout for the next home grown pitching talent.

In 2013, I’ve modified my approach.  With the help of daily doses of Luke Erickson‘s NationalsProspects.com daily looks, I’m taking the time to give a quick “grade” to each Starter’s outing by looking at the stat-line and the peripherals, in order to gauge how guys are looking.  Instead of the previous “good-bad-soso” analysis, I’ve adopted somewhat of a letter grade system, from A+ to F.  It isn’t a hard and fast grading system, but generally speaking we start with a run-of-the-mill quality start being graded a C (lets face it, 3 earned runs in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA is average) and then go from there.  6 shutout innings gets somewhere between an A+ and an A- depending on # of hits/walks/Ks, while a complete meltdown (e.g. 7 runs in 3 innings) earns an F.  You get the idea.

So, without further ado, here’s the April 2013 look at the starters by team, with grades for outings and some commentary.  We’ll do an expanded view of the MLB rotation in the next post.  The grades are through 4/30′s outings; the stats may be slightly off since I wrote the bulk of this prior to this morning.

AAA Rotation

  • Ohlendorf: A,B,D+,D,C-
  • Young: F,D
  • Maya: C,D,D,F,D-
  • Perry: D-,B+,C-,B
  • Rosenbaum: A-,A,C+,A
  • Roark: A,D,F->demoted to bullpen,A
  • Tatusko: D,A-

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

(A quick note explaining the notation; the top 5 pitchers are the current rotation, and guys who have been starters before promotions or demotions, or who have spot starts are noted below the current rotational members.  The rotation is listed in current appearance order).

So far, the AAA rotation (which i like to call the “desperately seeking to find an injury backup starter” group) has been mostly a mess this year.  Former Major league starters Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Young sport ERAs of 5.46 and 9.00 respectively.  Yunesky Maya has been even worse; a 7.45 ERA and a 1.62 whip.  Ryan Perry rebounded after a rough debut outing.  Tanner Roark was holding Young’s rotation spot and was either excellent or awful; even with two grade-A outings he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 innings.  Only Danny Rosenbaum has shown himself worthy of a potential call up; after trying out for the Colorado rotation all spring on a Rule-5 invitation, he was returned and has really thrown well in Syracuse.  (side note on Rosenbaum; is he now officially “Daniel?”  Sort of how we went from Tom Milone to Tommy?  I’ll have to update all my tags in the blog system).

In the Bullpen, Erik Davis, Fernando Abad and JC Romero each sport sub 1.00 ERAs in relief; the rest of the bullpen ranges from mediocre to awful.  As noted in a prior post comment, there’s not a lot of relief backup were one of our MLB arms to go down.  Davis is showing why the team protected him last November though.

AA Rotation

  • Broderick: C-,C+,B-,F,B-
  • Treinen: F,D,A,C,B+
  • Demny: A-,D,C,C-,F
  • Clay: D,A,A,C,B+
  • Karns: F,A,A,B+
  • Holder: C

DiscussionHarrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

As with Syracuse, there’s a lot of up-and-down so far in Harrisburg.  Brian Broderick, who should be in AAA frankly, is barely holding on in AA.  He’s yet to have anywhere close to a dominant outing.  Blake Treinen (throw-in from the Michael Morse trade) started really slow and has clawed his way back to respectability.  Paul Demny has been up and down too.  Caleb Clay (a MLFA signing who spent 6 years in the Boston organization) has been surprisingly sucessful as an Eastern League starter; he was relatively UNsuccessful the last two years playing for Boston’s AA affiliate in the same league as a middle reliever.  We’ll see if he can keep this up.  Lastly Nathan Karns, who in my mind is the “next best Nats starter prospect” to keep an eye on (with apologies to Rosenbaum, AJ Cole and Lucas Giolito) himself rebounded from an awful 2013 debut to put in 3 dominant starts.  He now sits with a 3.80 ERA and 29 ks in 21 innings through 5 starts with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

Trevor Holder got a spot start and has been otherwise decent.  Ian Krol (the PTBNL in the Morse trade) has been lights out; one run allowed in 13+ innings so far.  Michael Broadway, who we picked up as a MLFA just a few days before the season started, has also been good in short sample sizes.   Aaron Barrett has 4 saves and 15 ks to just 3 walks in his 11 innings this month.  Most of the rest of the Harrisburg bullpen are showing great K/9 rates right now with good numbers thus far.

High-A Rotation

  • Ray: A-,B,B-,A,A
  • Jordan: A,B,B+,B-,B-
  • Cole: D,B,D,D,C+
  • Schwartz: A,A
  • Hill: C+,A-,A+,C,C-
  • Turnbull: D-,D,F->demoted

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Potomac is led by a series of guys who are all on good rolls.  Robbie Ray, Taylor Jordan and Taylor Hill each are sporting sub 2.00 ERAs at the end of the month.  Hill’s outings are a combination of excellent and mediocre; his stat line looks better than his Start grade line.  Kylin Turnbull turned out not to be ready for High-A, but his promoted replacement Blake Schwartz certainly looked like he was ready in his first start (6ip, 3hits, zero runs) and followed up that outing with another dominant outing on 4/30.   Only A.J. Cole has really struggled out of this group, a disappointing start so far for the re-captured prospect.   Is High-A going to turn out to be his tripping point?  The California league is tough on hitters, but the Carolina league isn’t; what is going on with Cole?

In the bullpen, Tyler Herron has an amazing 20 Ks in 10 1/3 innings, while Richie Mirowski has given up just 4 hits in his 10+ innings of work for the month.

Low-A Rotation

  • Anderson: B+,B+,A,B,A
  • Turnbull: A
  • Pineyro: D,D,Inc,C-,A+
  • RPena: B,F,D,A-,B+
  • Encarnation: B+,C-,C-
  • Schwartz: B+,A,B-,A+->promoted
  • Mooneyham: B-,A,A->dl
  • Dupra: B,A,B-,D->promoted
  • Rauh: C,C,B-,D-
  • Fischer: A+
  • Hudgins: A,A-

DiscussionHagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

Hagerstown has a “rotation,” and then they have something akin to a “tandem” pitching plan in place, where the 2nd guy in goes nearly as long as the starter.  Hence the larger number of guys who are given grades on their “starts,” when in reality guys in the lower group don’t have any starts.  If a guy goes 3-4 innings in a game, they generally have a grade here.

Dixon Anderson is leading the way with 5 excellent outings and a 2.25 era/0.87 whip.  Brett Mooneyham had three good starts as well before hitting the D/L.  Schwartz proved too dominant in his 4 outings (21 Ks in 14 innnings) and was promoted; Dupra’s line earned him a promotion as well.  Pedro Encarnation is finally putting it together outside of short-season.  Turnbull looked very dominant in his low-A return as expected.   David Fischer and Wil Hudgins longer outings may have been good, but their other outings have drug down their stat lines.  DSL grad Pineyro is somewhat holding his own in full-season ball, with up and down nights that hopefully will even out.  Lastly Ronald Pena is living up to his “sleeper” potential; the 16th round 2012 draft pick has picked up right where he left off in full-season ball.

Nats Rotation Cycle #31: good/bad/soso

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Detwiler is really making a statement for his inclusion in the 2012 rotation. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

We’re getting down to the wire; There’s only three more of these posts coming, because the rotation only makes 3 more passes before the season is over.  Because of the off-day on 9/19 and the double-header 9/20, Milone pitched BEFORE Detwiler’s start in this “cycle” so the end of cycle #31 bleeds over into the beginning of cycle #32.

Good

  • Tommy Milone looked great on 9/15 (box/gamer), shutting down a weak NY Mets offense and getting his first MLB victory.  The Mets started 5 guys who were on their AAA roster a month ago, so its somewhat difficult to get a read on Milone’s capabilities on the day.  But he did go 5 2/3, gave up 1 run on 3 hits with 3 walks (one intentional).  The walks are surprising; Milone’s calling card and the way he’ll survive is by NOT allowing walks.
  • Day 3 of the return of Stephen Strasburg on 9/17 (box/gamer) went much better for the kid; his velocity was back, he was efficient (6ip on 61 pitches), he was accurate (0 walks and 45 of 61 pitches for strikes) and he was dominant (1 run on 4 hits and 3 Ks).  Can’t ask for much more than that.  Too bad he got a no-decision as his offense couldn’t get him more than one run against the Marlin’s #5 starter Volstad.
  • Ross Detwiler put in perhaps his best start in a Nats uniform in the back side of 9/20′s double header (box/gamer), holding an (admittedly weaker) Phillies lineup to just 3 hits over 7 1/3.  Ross was sitting on just 81 pitches when departing in the 8th, efficiently working through the lineup.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

  • John Lannan bounced back from a poor start last week with an improved on on 9/16 (box/gamer).  6ip, 3runs on 8 hits and a walk.  I think we know what we have in Lannan by now, and I’m sure he feels lonely as the sole remaining rotation guy from opening day.
  • A 7th inning homer turned Chien-Ming Wang‘s 9/18 start (box/gamer) from a good one to just merely a run of the mill quality start, but there’s definite promise in Wang’s performances as of late.  He went 6 2/3, gave up 3 runs on 6 hits with zero walks and 5 Ks.  Two homers hurt the sinkerballer.

Starter Trends

Milone    bad,soso,good
Lannan    good,good,bad,soso,good,bad,bad,good,soso,good,bad,soso
Strasburg    great,soso,good
Detwiler    soso,soso,good,good,bad,bad,soso,great
Wang        bad,bad,great,soso,soso,good,bad,soso,soso,soso
Peacock    good

Relievers of Note and other News

  • (not much in the way of links and notes here; I was gone all weekend and just did very rudimentary reviews.  A future post is in the works for my weekend trip, which will be of significant interest to baseball fans).
  • Drew Storen gets two saves in one day on 9/20: that’s pretty rare in this modern age of innings limits and coddling relievers.
  • Quick report that the team is scouting FA-to-be CJ Wilson.   The 2011 off season FA market is so thin on quality starting pitching that Wilson, who has had two pretty good seasons after pitching in relief the early part of his career, may be the leading starter out there on the market (i’m not counting CC Sabathia, who almost certainly opts out and re-signs for more money).  One complication: Wilson will be a Type-A free agent, costing the Nats a pick.  And guess what?  This little end-of-the-season run now has the team perilously close to having a non-protected first round draft pick.  Is CJ Wilson worth giving up the 16th overall pick in the draft?

Minor League Rotations Cycle #18: good/bad/soso

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Is Nathan Karns ready to make his mark on the organization? Photo perfectgame.org

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

Good

  • Tough loss for JD Martin on 7/6: He gave up 2 hits over 6 innings but both were solo homers in a 2-0 loss.
  • Shairon Martis again dominated a AA team on 7/6 (on day 2 of Harper-mania); 7IP, 4H, ER, 2B, 6K.  Byron Kerr featured this start on masnsports.com
  • Another excellent start for Robbie Ray on 7/6: 6IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 7K.
  • Nathan Karns put in his latest statement game in the GCL on 7/6: 4IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 6K.  Its time to promote him.
  • Fantastic Start for Tommy Milone on 7/7: 7IP, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 6K
  • Another great re-hab start for Chien Ming Wang on 7/7: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
  • AJ Cole continues to impress as a youngster in low-A.  7/7 line: 6IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.
  • Erik Davis got 10 ks in 5 innings on 7/8 but still managed to lose: 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 10K, HR.
  • Taylor Jordan won the nightcap on 7/9 for Hagerstown with an excellent outing: 7IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 2K.
  • Wirkin Estevez put in an excellent outing for Auburn on  7/9: 6IP, 4H, 0R, BB, 7K.
  • Silvio Medina (who I thought had been promoted out of the GCL) was dominant on 7/9: 4IP, 3H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 7K.
  • An excellent 2nd Potomac start for Sammy Solis on 7/10: 7IP, 4H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K.  This is the pitcher we’ve been waiting for.

Bad

  • Cameron Selik just can’t make the adjustment to high-A, taking another loss on 7/7: 5IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 2K.
  • Ryan Demmin took another bad loss for Auburn on 7/7: 5⅓ IP, 5H, 4H, 4ER, 0BB, 2K, 2HR.
  • Brian Dupra got a spot start (?) for Auburn on 7/8 and got knocked around a bit: 4⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5K.
  • Gregory Baez didn’t finish the third inning for the GCL on 7/8: 2⅔ IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K, HR.   But it wasn’t his fault the team lost; his bullpen gave up another 13 runs.
  • Yunesky Maya threw another egg on 7/9: 5IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K.
  • Tanner Roark got battered around on 7/9 after returning from the inactive list: 3⅔ IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 4K.  Its his third such bad outing in a row but unless someone comes off the DL, it doesn’t seem like there’s a natural replacement for him.
  • Adam Olbrychowski got scorched in Potomac on 7/9: 4⅔ IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 2BB, 2K
  • Matt Grace didn’t have the best outing on 7/9 either: 1ip, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 0K, 0HR.  Yanked after the first, Steve McCatty came in and pitched long relief to get the win.
  • Pedro Encarnation, who can’t seem to catch a break, got battered for the GCL Nats on 7/9: 3IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
  • Not the best rehab start for Chad Gaudin on 7/10: 4IP, 7H, 4ER, 6K, 0BB.  Seven hits and 6 Ks.  At least he didn’t walk anyone.
  • Christian Meza added more runs to his ERA on 7/10 in Auburn: 4⅓ IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 3K.
  • Christopher McKenzie seemed to get of the schnide for the GCL on 7/10: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

  • A bit of an unlucky 7/6 start for Paul Demny: 7IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 3K, HR.
  • Colin Bates proved to be an escape artist on 7/6: 5IP, 8H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, K.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings but only gave up one unearned run.
  • Craig Stammen had a soso start on 7/8: 6IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K, HR.   A quality start for sure, but nothing dominant.
  • Danny Rosenbaum didn’t pitch that badly on 7/8, but took the loss nonetheless.  5IP, 6H, 4R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K, HR
  • Erik Arneson was pretty good for Harrisburg on 7/10: 6IP 7H, 3ER, 2BB, 8K.  I’m a tough grader for guys who have pitched above the level they’re currently playing.
  • Paul Applebee pitched a decent start for Hagerstown on 7/10: 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 0BB, 3K.  He seems to have earned his way back into the Hagerstown rotation.  At least until we figure out what happened to Bobby Hansen.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

  • Its really hard to tell who is in the “rotation” in the GCL.  As you’ll see, Baez “started” a game wednesday and then again saturday.  King, Mieses and Karns all were skipped this time around.
  • So far so good with the JC Romero experiment.  He’s had several outings that have all gone pretty well.
  • Tommy Milone got a well-earned International League all-star spot this week.  See you in September!
  • Brad Peacock‘s performance this year has vaulted him into the Baseball America mid-season top 50Bryce Harper, now the youngest player in AA, is the new #1, overtaking Angels OF prospect Mike Trout.   Peacock is still listed as having a #3/#4 starter ceiling; this coincides with concerns i’ve read over his 3rd and (lack of a) 4th pitch.
  • Potomac, after being disappointed by the missing of Harper, may be making alternate plans to build a new facility.  According to this Baseball America link, the owner Art Silber is announcing later this month a new site and new plans.

Trends

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Karns, Ray, Milone
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Selik, Meza

Minor League Rotations Cycle #17: good/bad/soso

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Detwiler gets the next shot at the bigs. Photo Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

Good

  • Shairon Martis had another dominant start in AA: 6IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, BB, 6K, HR.  He needs to move up.
  • Another good start for Robbie Ray on 7/1: 6IP, 5H, 3R, ER, 2BB, 6K, reversing his slide over the past few games.
  • Gregory Baez had a nice little 4-inning “start” on 7/1: 4ip, 2hits, 0 runs, 3Ks and 1BB.
  • Another excellent start for Tom Milone on 7/2: 6⅓ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 6K.  Unfortunately the most deserving AAA starter is NOT getting the spot start for the big club this week, as Detwiler’s improved form an Milone’s lack of 40-man status conspires against him.  No worries Tom; your time will come (perhaps as Zimmermann’s innings-limit replacement in late august).
  • Chien-Ming Wang threw his 2nd rehab start on 7/2, this time in high-A for Potomac.  As Adam Kilgore reports, he pitched 4 scoreless inning, allowing 1 hit and 2 walks.  He reportedly hit 91mph, which is great news.  I pulled the Pitch f/x data from Wang’s 2007 season prior to his injury to try to get a feel for what he was capable of back then.  Here’s the data from June 6th, 2007, one of Wang’s best games that season.  Average fastball of 94, peaks of 97, with great separation between his fastball and his change-up.  I didn’t realize he threw that hard (if you believe the Pitch f/x data; it is spotty that early in the system’s history).  If the goal is to get his speed back to 94-97, he’s got a long way to go.
  • An excellent start for Matt Grace on 7/3: 7IP, 5H, 2R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K.  Its good to see him rebound from a couple of sub-par performances lately.
  • Brad Peacock had an uncharacteristically (for him) wild 7/4 start in Harrisburg but still got the dominant victory.  Line: 6ip, 5hits 1run (unearned), 9ks and 2 bbs.
  • Christopher McKenzie surprisingly was given a GCL start on 7/4 and he did pretty well: 4ip, 3hits, 1 unearned run, 4Ks and 1 walk.  He’s clearly too old for
  • Paul Applebeee had an excellent spot start in Hagerstown (filling in for the newly promoted Solis) on 7/5: 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 5K.  Since there’s now a hole in that rotation and the Short-A squad being so inconsistent, I wonder if Applebee sticks there for a bit.

Bad

  • Cameron Selik got waxed in Potomac on 7/1: 5+ IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 2K, HR.
  • Paul Demmin took a step backwards for Auburn on 7/2: 4⅔ IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, BB, 4K, 2HR.
  • Tanner Roark got tagged for 2 homers in 5 innings en route to another loss.  Line: 5ip, 7H, 4ER, 3BB, 6K, 2 HR, HBP.  10 baserunners in 5 innings continues a mediocre season for Roark.
  • Wirkin Estevez continued his up-and-down performances for Auburn on 7/3: 4IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 2K.    Two good, two bad so far for the DSL grad.
  • Anthony Marcelino got pounded in the GCL on 7/3: 3⅓ IP, 7H, 9R, 6ER, 3BB, 2K.  This was his first start but his third appearance and none have gone very well.
  • Christian Meza struggled in Auburn on 7/4 badly, getting knocked around for 5runs on 5 hits in 2 2/3 innings.
  • Brandon King got pounded in the GCL on 7/5: 2⅔ IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 2BB, 2K, HR.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

  • JD Martin‘s 7/1 spot start was barely mediocre.  5⅔ IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 2K, HR.   Though I’ll ask the audience, at what point does Martin stop becoming a “spot starter?”  He’s got 9 on the season thus far.  I guess this is what AAA teams do, needing a 6th starter for most of the season as guys move up and out.
  • Colin Bates had an interesting 7/1 start: 5⅓ IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 0K.  No strikeouts in 5+ innings, that may be a first for a starter in our system this year.
  • Was Erik Davis “pitching to the score” in Harrisburg on 7/2?  Final line: 7IP, 10H, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.  It was 10-0 heading into the bottom of the third.  Perhaps so; certainly with a 10 run lead i’d be in experimentation mode, not necessarily buckle down mode as a starter.
  • Oliver Perez returned from the DL for the 2nd half of 7/2′s double header and put in a mediocre start.  4⅔ IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  See the notes section for my thoughts on the franchise’s use of Perez right now.
  • AJ Cole pitched decently enough, but for only 4 innings, for Hagerstown on 7/2: 4IP, 5H, 3ER, BB, 4K.  Not sure why he was taken out so soon.
  • Another quality start for Craig Stammen in Syracuse on 7/3: 6IP, 8H, 3ER, BB, 5K, HR.  He needs to do more to earn a return trip to the MLB.
  • Danny Rosenbaum was struggling for Potomac on 7/3 when the game got washed away (along with many trees in the area) on 7/3.
  • Yuniesky Maya struggled with his control on 7/4 but still pitched a quality start.  6 2/3, 5hits, 2 runs (both earned), 5Ks and 3 walks.
  • Adam Olbrychowski‘s 7/4 start wasn’t terrible, but it was enough to take the loss.  6ip, 7 hits, 4 runs, 4 Ks and 0 walks.
  • Taylor Jordan kept Hagerstown in the game on 7/4, but didn’t get the victory.  Line: 5 1/3, 7hits, 2runs, 5ks and 2 walks.  Not bad, but not excellent either.
  • It was “reliever night” in Syracuse on 7/5, with Chad Gaudin getting a rehab start (line: 2⅔ IP, 2H, 3R, 0ER, 2BB, 2K), and 4 other relievers then pouring gasoline on the fire of a 11-6 loss.
  • Erik Arneson went 6 2/3 for Harrisburg on 7/6, good enough for the win.  Line: 6⅔ IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4K.  A bit too many baserunners for a “good” in my book.
  • Sammy Solis, whose debut in high-A on 7/5 was covered by Byron Kerr here.  He talked more glowingly about it than his line indidates: 6IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 5K.  He clearly has good stuff, a 93mph fastball and 2 secondary pitches that he can command, and should continue to fare well for this team.
  • Manny Rodriguez‘s 7/5 appearance in Auburn was just ok: 4IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 3K.
  • Meanwhile, Rodriguez’s 2nd “starter” teammate Kelvin Lopez piched 3 dominant innings for the win the same day: 3IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

  • The use of Matt Chico continues to confound.  He had made two scheduled GCL starts, but then his rotation spot was skipped and he worked out of the bullpen on 7/1.  Is he a starter or is he a reliever?  The big-league team could sure use a Loogy (going so far as to sign waived Philadelphia reject JC Romero recently), and Chico has MLB experience.  I’m surprised they’re not pushing him into this kind of role.  That being said, he did a late-inning stint on 7/4 and got hit badly in the GCL, an embarassing outing that may mean he’s closer to the door than the majors.
  • Speaking of potential LOOGYs in the majors, why do we continues to use Oliver Perez as a starter in AA?  Why don’t we try him out as a situational reliever instead of letting him waste as a starter in a level he is clearly too old and too experienced for?
  • Speaking of Perez … if he returns to AA’s rotation (as it seems), who makes way?   Perhaps Erik Arneson …. but he was an all-star for this team.  On form it may end up being Tanner Roark though.  We’ll see next cycle.
  • Hassan Pena at Harrisburg got some nice recognition, being named to the Eastern League all star team to replace Peacock (who will pitch in the Futures game).
  • In what I consider to be a surprise move, the Nats have decided to have Bryce Harper skip Potomac & High-A ball and go straight to AA.  Potomac uber-fan Sue Dinem posted his (hers?) reaction here and I can’t necessarily refute any of his/her opinions.  If I had to guess I’d say the team is primarily worried about the crummy field in Potomac, perhaps penalizing the local affiliate owner for not taking care of the situation sooner.  From purely a player-development perspective perhaps this is a good move for the team overall; Harper held his own in the AFL against AA talent and this may put him in line for a 2012 spot sooner than we all thought.  Or even a 9/1 callup (though I’d be slightly against this move as it would complicate his arbitration clock).
  • Tom Milone‘s continued excellence has earned him the International League’s pitcher of the week award.
  • As expected, Ross Detwiler‘s performance as of late has earned him a spot start in the majors.  No matter how well he does, it should be a one-and-done start, but it would be nice to see him throw 6 or 7 clean innings.
  • Sammy Solis was promoted to make his normal-rest start in Potomac instead of Hagerstown on 7/5.   Perhaps not necessarily on form but definitely on age and experience, Solis belongs in Potomac as a college draftee and should get a better challenge there.  Solis’s promotion seems to have come at the expense of Evan Bronson in Potomac’s rotation.
  • Pedro Encarnation‘s rough start to the season has seemingly earned him a demotion out of Auburn’s rotation, with his normal spot being taken by Meza this turn.  Meza didn’t exactly light it up, so Encarnation could be back.  Update: he got demoted back to the GCL on 7/3.
  • Why was Brad Meyers skipped in Syracuse’s rotation?  Gaudin did a rehab start on Meyer’s turn, and Martin is scheduled for 7/7.  Ahh; answer: he was placed on the 7-day DL retroactive to 7/1.
  • Christopher Manno had another great outing this week, a 2ip, 5k performance on 7/5.  Maybe the team should be looking at him as a potential Loogy and should start promoting him up the line.
  • Mayo and Meza earned quick promotions up to Auburn on 7/3.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad,bad,soso,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,incomplete (2ip)
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great,soso,good,soso,good,soso,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,great,soso,soso
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso,soso->promoted,bad,good (cut short),soso,soso
Meyers    soso,good,soso,good,bad,soso,bad,good,good,soso

AA Trends:
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury->dl),soso,good,soso,good,soso,good,incomplete (1ip),soso
OPerez    great,soso (1IP cut short),good,soso,soso-> dl,soso
Roark        bad,good,incomplete (2 ip cut short),soso,soso,awful,good,soso,bad,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great,good,soso,good,good,great,good
Arneson    soso,soso,good,good,soso
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good,bad,good->dl,soso,great,soso,great,good

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad,good,bad,great,good,soso,good,soso
Olbrychowski soso,good,good,soso
Solis        soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,great,bad,great
Selik        soso,bad->dl,soso,soso,great,good,soso,good,soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso,soso,soso,good,soso,awful,soso,good
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso,soso,good,good,bad,soso,soso,good,good,soso
Applebee    bad,soso,bad,good,good
Ray        great,great,good,2ip short outing,good,great,soso,soso,bad,good
Cole        soso,soso,bad,good,good,soso

Short-A Trends
Bates        good,great,soso
Demmin    good,good,good,bad
Estevez    bad,great,good,bad
Meza        bad
MRodriguez    good,bad,soso
KLopez    bad,soso,bad,good
(Encarnation    bad,bad,soso->demoted to bullpen)

GCL Trends
Karns        soso,great,great
Baez        great
(Marcelino    awful)
Mieses    good,good
Meza        great,good
(McKenzie    good)
King        awful,great,awful

(Chico    good,great->back to bullpen?)

Written by Todd Boss

July 6th, 2011 at 8:34 am

Minor League Rotations Cycle #16: good/bad/soso

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Hagerstown's newest Starter. Photo the Washington Nationals

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

Good

  • Shairon Martis continues to prove what we already should know, that a former MLB starter can dominate in AA, by striking out 10 over 8+ innings on 6/26.  His performance was featured on milb.com.
  • Matt Chico pitched 5 solid innings in the GCL on 6/26: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.  Why??  If he’s re-habbing in the GCL that’s fine, but this team has TOO many starters in the AA/AAA level right now and i’m not entirely sure where Chico is going to go.  Perhaps he’s getting stretched out to feature as a trade candidate.
  • Wirkin Estevez bounced back (as noted by Byron Kerr here) and pitched 5 nearly no-hit innings on 6/26.
  • Tom Milone continues his outstanding run in AAA on 6/27: 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 0BB, 6K.  He continues to be the minor leaguer most likely to make the next spot start in the Majors despite his lack of 40-man status.
  • Danny Rosenbaum fulfilled his “ace” status in Potomac on 6/28: 6IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 6K.
  • AJ Cole got the “relief start” coming in after the rehabbing Wang on 6/27 and was sparkling: 5IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 6K.
  • Another nice quality start plus outing from Ryan Demmin for short-A on 6/27: 6IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6K.    That’s three starts, three good outings and 3 wins in a row for the Potomac washout.  Perhaps he’s refound his mojo.
  • Adam Olbrychowski continues to show pitching capabilities in the starter role that he never really showed in relief, going for 6⅔ IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 4K on 6/28 for Potomac.
  • Wirkin Estevez put in his second strong start in a row for Auburn on 6/28: 5IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K.
  • Adalaberto Mieses continues the strong pitching in the GCL, going for 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 2K on 6/28.  A bit wild perhaps but he scattered 6 runners effectively enough.
  • Christian Meza got the “second start” in the GCL on 6/28, pitching 4 strong innings for the “save.”  4IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 3K.
  • Another ho-hum dominant performance in AA for Brad Peacock: 5⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 3BB, 6K, WP.
  • Evan Bronson‘s (apparent) return to the rotation in High-A was pretty solid: 7IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4K, HR.
  • An ugly defensive outing cost Taylor Jordan during a pretty good 6/29 outing: 5⅔ IP, 4H, 3R, 0ER, 3BB, 8K.
  • Brandon King threw 5 perfect innings in the GCL on 6/29 before making way for his bullpen.  5IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 4K.  You can’t ask for much more than 5 perfect innings after his inauspicious start.
  • Another excellent start for Erik Arneson for Harrisburg on 6/30: 6IP, 4H, 0ER, BB, 5K.
  • Excellent start by Paul Demny for Potomac on 6/30: 7IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8K.
  • Wow, Nathan Karns looks like he may be healthy and good.  6/30 line: 4IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 7K.

Bad

  • Robbie Ray seems to be coming back down to earth after a scorching start to his pro season.  On 6/26 he got touched up for 4⅔ IP, 5H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 6K, 2HR.  Perhaps he’s getting a big of arm fatigue, going every 5 days for the first time.
  • Tanner Roark continues his up and down season, never recovering from a 4-run first and losing on 6/27.  Line: 5IP, 8H, 5ER, 0BB, 5K.
  • Manny Rodriguez didn’t get out of the first inning on 6/30: ⅓ 3H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 0K, HBP.
  • Rodriguez’s relief Kelvin Lopez didn’t fare much better: 3⅔ IP, 5H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 4K, 2-2 IR-S.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

  • Ross Detwiler put in an oddly short 6/26 start: 5IP, 4H, 2R, ER, 2BB, 4K.   I wouldn’t call it great, but at least it wasn’t bad.
  • Cameron Selik put in a similar line to Detwilers on 6/26: 5IP, 4H, 5R, 1ER, 2BB, 1K.  Not bad, but not great.  You can’t fault the pitcher when he gives up four earned runs in 5 innings.  Selik was rather wild on the day, with a HBP and two wild pitches.
  • Colin Bates had a near-quality start on 6/26 in Auburn: 5IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 3K.   That’s three effective starts in a row for Bates in Short-A.
  • Chien-Ming Wang made his first rehab start, and his first professional appearance for this team after two contracts and several million dollars, in Hagerstown on 6/27.    Adam Kilgore reported on the important appearance at the NatsJournal blog here, saying that he showed decent speed (86-88, topping at 90), with good movement and his sinker working (6/1 go/ao ratio).  Hmm.  This actually sounds pretty promising.  Final line: 3IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 3K, HBP.  It is good to finally see him pitching in a Nats uniform.
  • An up and down outing for Craig Stammen on 6/28: 5.1IP, 9H, 5ER, BB, 9K.  I like the K/9 rate, but don’t like the whip on the game (around 2.0).  He gets a win for his efforts though, as Syracuse’s hitters are pounding the ball right now.
  • Erik Davis‘s 6/28 start in Harrisburg was suspended in the top of the 1st; I’m guessing he works out of the bullpen the next few days so as to stay sharp.
  • Another decent start for Matt Grace for Hagerstown on 6/28: 5IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 5K.  Not quite enough for the QS but good enough.
  • Not the best outing for Yuniesky Maya (6IP, 7H, 4ER, BB, 6K, HR, HBP) on 6/29.    It wasn’t that awful, turning 9 baserunners into 4 runs, but continues the theme for 2011 for Maya.
  • Pedro Encarnation continues his mediocre start to the season with another unimpressive performance on 6/29: 4IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 2K.
  • Ross Detwiler pitched 2 shutout innings on 6/30, in an abbreviated “start” that probably is a precursor to his coming up and pitching sometime over the weekend to help offset the doubleheader on 7/2.
  • Brad Meyers gave up a ton of baserunners through 6 innings of a relief start on 6/30: 6IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 3K.
  • Sammy Solis gave up a ton of hits but scattred them well enough on 6/30: 6IP, 11H, 3ER, 0BB, 6K.  A rather similar line to Meyers honestly.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

  • Masn.com’s Byron Kerr continues his excellent coverage of the Nats farm hands with an overview of 2011 10th rounder Manny Rodriguez, pitching in Auburn.
  • Byron Kerr posted on 6/29 with a look at Peacock’s mechanics adjustments, which have allowed him to make great advances in his quality as a starter.  The adjustment he’s made has been to do a better job of concealing the baseball prior to its release.  Peacock has hit 97 this year, sits 93-94, and has really good change-up separation (83-85mph on the change).  His secondary pitches have always been the criticism from scouts; he’s been working on his curveball command and its not clear if he has a 4th pitch right now.  I think to be successful at the upper levels he needs a 4th pitch; a cutter, a slider or a 2-seam sinking fastball are the logical candidates.
  • Baseball America featured Sammy Solis on 6/29 (possibly insider only).  Per the report, Solis’s injuries slowed his first pro season (as we all know) and that he’s been slowly building up to 100-pitch limits per night.  He has added a cut-fastball to his existing 3-pitch repertoire (4-seamer, changeup and curve).
  • Brad Peacock‘s year of accolades continues with his naming (along with Erik Arneson) to the Eastern League All-star team. The Harrisburg team placed 5 guys to the all star roster all told.
  • Trevor Holder finally seems to have been removed from the Potomac rotation after a first half of forgettable numbers (Bronson started in his place on 6/29).  We’ll see if it was a one-off occurrence.

Top 3 starters deserving promotion not named Peacock: Milone, Arneson, Karns
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Roark, Encarnation, Kopez

Olbrychowski 25,

Written by Todd Boss

July 4th, 2011 at 9:11 am