Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

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Ask Collier 7/21/17

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Doolittle has settled right hin. Photo via federal baseball/getty images

Doolittle has settled right hin. Photo via federal baseball/getty images

Off days seem to be accompanied by mail bags.  And that’s good, because i’m kind of in a writing lull.  I have no interest in looking at the hundreds of players in the game and trying to write one of those speculative, useless “hey we should make this trade” posts.  So here’s MLB.com nats beat reporter Jamal Collier‘s latest mail bag and how i’d have answered the questions he took.


Q: With the A’s trade and Robertson traded, do you think the Nats still look for a closer? Or do they go for another bullpen piece (ie Neshek)?

A: …. and yet,  here we are, needing to look at all 30 teams and all the theoretically “available” closers to write an educated answer.  *sigh*

Ok: here’s who is for certain selling: Detroit, Chicago WS, Oakland, NY Mets, Miami, Philly, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco.  And here’s who probably should be selling: Baltimore, Toronto, Atlanta, maybe Texas.

That’s 12-13 teams, some of which have pretty good closers.  So there’s some arms available.  But at what cost?  Does anyone want to stomach the trading of yet another set of higher-end prospects for a rental “proven closer?”  I’m hoping the team goes a different direction, with a trade of lesser quality prospects for another couple 7th and 8th inning guys.

Bullpen now:  Doolittle, Madsen, Albers, Romero, Perez, Blanton and Grace.  Lefty heavy, and Blanton just cannot seem to get it together.  So another righty to replace Blanton could work, given how bad he’s been this year.  Maybe the return of Glover or a healthy/effective Kelley is what the team really needs instead of another trade (because who else on that current list of 7 do you want to jettison?).

Collier says that the team added a lot of payroll and may not do another blockbuster.


 

Q: Will the Nats make a push for a fifth starter at the trade deadline?

A: Nope.  They’ll give Edwin Jackson starts until he gives them a reason to dump him, may try existing internal solutions, and will eventually call up Erick Fedde to try him out too.  But they seem likely to cull the veteran 1yr FA market next off-season instead of overpaying now.  Of course, that being said seemingly the next available option in AAA (Jacob Turner) just got absolutely shelled (1 2/3rds innings 6 runs) … maybe he had transaction-lag from being activated and DFAd within like a 24 hour period.  A.J. Cole seems to have nearly exhausted his effectiveness as a starting pitcher; wow how far has he fallen.  Hill and Voth both now demoted to AA, along with Greg Ross.

Collier agrees.


 

Q: Who are the tradeable assets on the big league squad & in the minors? Likeliest to be dealt?

A: Hmm.  Most tradeable assets (outside the obvious all stars/marquee players we’d never move) on the big league squad might be Taylor and Goodwin thanks to their excellent seasons, and Gio Gonzalez who has pitched great and has two more option years.  But now that Ross is on the shelf for a year, we can’t possibly trade Gio.  Eaton should be back  in 2018 so there’s no room for both Goodwin and Taylor; i’d guess they’d trade one of them and let the other start in LF after Werth plays out his contract.  That is unless the Nats seek to improve offense in LF (like I think they should) and go for a big bopper … then they might have two OF trade assets (I think i’d rather move these guys than have them sit to be the 4th option).

In the minors?  Andrew Stevenson comes to mind as someone who might be surplus to requirements in the short term and be someone worth flipping.  That is unless we move both TAylor and Goodwin; then he’d make a perfect 4th OF for 2018 behind a LF FA acquisition.  Past that?  Its pretty empty in AAA and AA, so you’d be looking at guys in Low- and  High-A as trade assets.  Perhaps even lower; we have a number of high-dollar IFAs in the GCL right now.

Collier doesn’t even speculate; i guess he’s not a minor league guy.


Q: Will Koda Glover close games when he returns?

A: Lets get him to return first.  Is there even a time table for him to return?  Honestly I was almost assuming he was done for the year.  If he does return … then yeah, absolutely he’s in the closer mix.

Collier says the same thing basically.


 

Q: Any word on Davey Lopes return?

A: didn’t even know he was gone.  Its been a busy summer.  :-)

Collier has no updates; he’s away on personal matter.

 

Eaton Injury reaction; holes and opportunities

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hate to see this. Photo via usatoday

hate to see this. Photo via usatoday

Just a placeholder post for discussion on the hot topic of the day/weekend.

Adam Eaton‘s ACL injury creates some short term and some longer term implications for the roster.  Lets talk and speculate while we wish him a speedy recovery.

sidenote: With modern medicine ACL injuries take time, but also take *time* before the player is ever feeling “right” about his leg again, so this is certainly a bummer for both Eaton and the team.  Reported 6-9 month recovery time before he’s back on the field.  But by all accounts it really takes athletes two full years to “trust” the repaired ACL.  We’ll get to what I think this means for our roster longer term below.

Short Term: obviously we’re seeing a like-for-like replacement in CF with Michael Taylor.  We are all well aware of his short comings, and i’m guessing this may be his “last chance” to show that he belongs in a starting role.  Interestingly, the team opted not to call up Brian Goodwin for the backup OF bench role, but untested Rafael Bautista.  Neither are really tearing it up in AAA this year; Bautista’s got a .291 BA but its rather empty, while Goodwin’s OPS is in the .640 range.   Dusty Baker installed Taylor in the 2nd spot in the order inexplicably (lineup construction theory tells us that you want your BEST hitter in the #2 hole, not your worst) and he was rewarded with a 3-5 day from him.  But I’d much, much rather see Rendon or a hot Werth batting 2nd with Taylor buried further down (like, 8th).

If Taylor fails to produce, there’s not a whole lot on the farm to draw from.  Victor Robles isn’t ready (and he’s hurt), nor is Juan Soto.   I’d probably dip to AA and pluck the hitting machine Andrew Stevenson to backfill in center if a need arose.  But that’s a tough jump for Stevenson, who basically has a season and a half of pro ball experience.

Trade market?  its probably too early for most teams to start thinking about a trade.  We’d have to ride out a sub-par Taylor for a couple of months before the trade waters started heating up.  But there’s definitely teams out there who are punting on 2017 who might have CF capable guys to flip; looking at Kansas City (Lorenzo Cain) if they continue to struggle Oakland’s Rajai Davis, Toronto’s Kevin Pillar if Toronto can’t un-bury themselves, or the Angels (Mike Trout) .. ok just kidding there.  I can’t really see any obvious trade candidate from an NL team; all the guys on floundering NL teams seem like prospects that they’d want to keep, not veterans or FAs-to-be worth flipping.  Anyway, we might not want to trade away more depth for a piece though, especially a rental.

Lets hope for a Taylor career resurgence, or perhaps a Stevenson call-up.

Longer Term: I wonder if this injury doesn’t make the Nats re-think their off-season strategy.  Will Eaton be able to play CF next season?  Will he have to move to LF while (as mentioned above) he learns to trust his knee again?  If Eaton has to move to Left, then there’s no possible way that Jayson Werth continues his tenure here.  I realize you guys may not think Werth could re-up on a shorter term deal .. but if he has a nice season and we still have a need in LF, why not?  Anyway; Eaton in LF, Harper in RF (because apparently Baker won’t even think about moving Harper to CF like i’ve advocated in the past), which leaves us short a CF yet again.  It could happen.  Like our rotating door at closer, are we looking at more rotating doors in CF?

Will Stevenson be ready for 2018 to man CF?  Will Taylor own it?  Will Eaton be ready?  Or are we looking at a FA stop-gap to Stevenson/Robles tenure?

Might be way early to worry about this stuff (ok, yes it is way early).  Just idle thoughts while we see if the Nats can salvage a win in this awful series.

 

Nats Prospects: Where to see them in 2017

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Robles is #1 on every list ... and he's finally within driving distance! Photo via milb.com

Robles is #1 on every list … and he’s finally within driving distance! Photo via milb.com

(2016’s version of this post2015’s version of this post)

Now that we’re basically through Prospect Ranking season, and now that the four full season rosters have been announced, here’s a fun little look at where all our “top” prospects are assigned to start out 2017.  By “Top prospects” I basically mean anyone who has gotten more recent prospect rankings (so for example, Taylor Hill in Syracuse is not listed).  Even an “honorable mention” in Sickel’s lists, which go nearly 40 deep.  I have it organized not by general ranking, but by the level.

Also, Here’s a link to every Nats prospect ranking list I know of dating to 2004 along with their respective starting locations going back 3 years (the below table only has this year’s and last for comparison purposes).

Last NameFirst NamePosition2017 Starting Level2016 Starting Level
GloverKodaRHP (reliever)MLBHigh A
MarmolejosJose1BMLB D/LHigh A
ColeA.J.RHPAAAAAA
VothAustinRHPAAAAAA
SeverinoPedroCAAAAAA
BautistaRafaelOF (CF)AAAAA
GoodwinBrianOF (CF)AAAAAA
SkoleMatt1B/3BAAAAAA
FeddeErickRHPAAHigh A
StevensonAndrewOF (CF)AAHigh A
WardDrew3BAAHigh A
AbreuOsvaldoSSAAHigh A
ReadRaudyCAAHigh A
WilliamsAustenRHPAAAA
JohansenJakeRHP (reliever)AAHigh A
SimmsJohnRHPAAAA
CorderoJimmyRHP (reliever)AAAA
SelfDerekRHP (reliever)AAHigh A
PerezStephenSSAAAA
KieboomSpencerCAAAA
RoblesVictorOF (CF)High-ALow A
GutierrezKelvin3BHigh-ALow A
BaezJoanRHP (Starter)High-ALow A
WisemanRhettOF (corner)High-ALow A
AgustinTelmitoOFHigh-ALow A
LoraEdwinSSHigh-ALow A
CrownoverMatthewLHP (StarterHigh-ALow A
SagdalIanUtilHigh-ALow A
DavidsonAustinInfHigh-AHigh A
ReyesLuisRHPHigh-AHigh A
RodriguezJefryRHPHigh-ALow A
BacusDakodaRHP (reliever)High-AAA
Rivera Jr.MarianoRHP (reliever)High-ALow A
SotoJuanOF (corner)Low-AGCL
KieboomCarterSSLow-AGCL
NeuseSheldon3BLow-AShort A
FrancoAnderson3BLow-AGCL
PerkinsBlakeOF (CF)Low-AShort A
ReetzJaksonCLow-ALow A
WatsonTylerLHPLow-AShort A
BanksNickOF (Corner)Low-AShort A
JohnsonDanielOF (Corner)Low-AShort A
NollJake2BLow-AGCL
BarreraTresCLow-AShort A
GarciaLuisSSXSTDSL
LuzardoJesusLHP (StarterXSTXST
AntunaYaselSSXSTDSL
UpshawArmondOF (CF)XSTGCL
LeeAndrewLHP (reliever)XSTLow A
PimentelDavinsonCXSTGCL
FuentesStevenRHPXSTShort A
DickeyRobbieRHPXSTLow A
MotaIsraelOFXSTGCL
GunterCody3B (now a RPH)XSTLow A
BallouIsaacOF (Corner)XSTAA
BenincasaRobertRHP (reliever)XSTAA
SanchezJose?DSL?DSL

Thoughts by Level:

MLB: Koda Glover‘s amazing 2016 rise from High-A to the majors is well documented.  Now it looks like  he may get closing chances sooner than later.  For procedural reasons Jose Marmolejos has to be on the major league D/L, but you’d have to think he goes to AA when he’s off of it.  His injury, in case you were wondering, is a “Left Forearm Strain” and he should be eligible to come off the 60-day D/L on or about April 24th.

AAA: Of the 6 “prospects” in AAA … 5 of them were there last year.  Only Rafael Bautista is making “progress” into the upper-most level of our minors.  All six are on the 40-man and all 6 should get call-ups at some point this year (even if its 9/1 for someone like Bautista).  We’ve talked these guys to death really; no real surprises on this list.

AA: Lots of guys on the AA roster who have gotten mentions in the past.  About half of them are Nats draftees making expected progress from High-A -> AA (Fedde, Stevenson, Ward, Abreu, Read).  There’s 5 guys who are seemingly stalled at AA for the moment: Williams, Simms, Cordero, Perez and Kieboom all started last year at AA.   And then there’s the two oddities in terms of assignments: Johansen (as previously discussed) and Self (who is now in AA for the fourth season).

High-A: 10 of the 13 guys here are making year-over-year expected progress from Low-A.  Two more (Davidson and Reyes) are repeating the level, and then there’s Bacus, who started last year in AA and seems to be moving backwards.

Low-A: 6 guys making expected Short->Low-A jumps, another 4 making the more impressive GCL->Low-A jump.  Only Reetz languishing here, repeating Low-A and looking more and more like a draft disappointment.  And its reflected in his system rankings; upon his drafting he was back of the top 10 … now he’s 18-20 range, if ranked at all.

XST: contains the expected mix of guys coming off injury and youngsters who were in either the GCL or the DSL last year and were not really ever candidates for Hagerstown.  Some of these guys likely get assigned to full-season squads as injuries occur, others will slot into short-season squads in a couple of months.  Biggest names here are Luis Garcia, Jesus Luzardo, Yasel Antuna, and Jose Sanchez (who might still be in the DSL as a 2016 IFA signee).

 

Spring Training 2017 NRI Discussion

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Who will be this year's Chris Heisey? Photo via Washington Times

Who will be this year’s Chris Heisey? Photo via Washington Times

Third year running for this post: Here’s a link to 2016’s version and a link to 2015’s post.

Every year the team invites a bunch of Non-Roster Invitees (NRIs) to Spring Training, and every year we wonder if any of these guys have a chance to make the team.  This post discusses the NRIs and their chances.  Through out the winter some NRIs were announced with signings; on 2/11/17 the full list of NRIs was announced.

This is no throw-away post: here’s what has happened to Washington Nationals NRIs the last two spring trainings:

Summary of NRIs from ST 2016: 20 NRIs total (plus perhaps a couple more that got signed late):

  • Two (2) made the 25-man roster: (Chris Heisey and as noted in the comments, thanks for the correction, Matt Belisle).
  • Two (2) eventually got added and called up (Lucas Giolito, Sean Burnett)
  • Two (2) have since been added to 40-man (Matt Skole, Austin Voth)

Summary of NRIs from ST 2015: 20 NRis total:

  • Two (2) made the 25-man roster out of spring (Dan Uggla and Clint Robinson)
  • Two (2) others eventually got added and called up (Rafael Martin and Emmanuel Burriss)
  • Two (2) others were young catchers since added to the 40-man (Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino)

So that’s six NRIs from 2016 that eventually played for the Nats or got added to the 40-man roster, and six from the year .  So odds are a handful of these players will eventually have a major league impact for this team.  Lets take a look at 2017’s NRI roster.  From the mlb.com NRI roster, lets break them down by position.


Starters

  • RHP Jacob Turner: once upon a time he was halfway decent for an NL East team (Miami), but lost his effectiveness somewhere in the 2014 timeframe and hasn’t gotten it back.  Seems like AAA rotation filler to me.
  • RHP Vance Worley: an interesting minor league signing; why couldn’t he get a 40-man contract after the season he just had in Baltimore?  Could be a sneaky effective pickup.
  • RHP Jeremy Guthrie: 272  career starts but none in the majors since getting dumped from Kansas City’s 2015 rotation.  In 2016 he posted an ERA north of 7.00 for Miami and San Diego’s AAA squads.  He’ll be 38.  I’m not sure he’s really any better of a “spare starter” option than what we already have in house.
  • RHP Erick Fedde: his invite clearly indicates to me that the MLB staff wants to get a look at him, figuring that he’s taken over as the next big thing in terms of starting pitcher prospects.  With all due respect to A.J. Cole and Austin Voth, its really Fedde that I’d like to see pitching in the majors if/when we have a month long starter injury later this summer.
  • RHP Taylor Hill; may be up to see if he’s got anything left in the tank, or perhaps to eat some split squad innings?  Once you’re off the 40-man it seems pretty hard to get back, and that’s the dilemna that Hill faces.
  • RHP Kyle McGowin, recently acquired in the Danny Espinosa deal.  I’m guessing the team wants to see what they have.  McGowin’s 2016 numbers were awful … but pitching in the PCL is generally awful, so its hard to scout the stat line here.

FWIW, a couple of these guys who I’ve called “starters” (Turner and Worley) may actually still be starters, but they’re close enough to starting that the team could look at them as such. I could see Worley getting the last spot in the MLB rotation and acting as a swing man/6th starter, not unlike what we used Yusmeiro Petit for last year.  The minor league invites mean that the whole AAA rotation will be in camp.  Unless the team suffers 3 SP injuries in camp, nobody here is making the 25-man on 4/1.

Right Handed Relievers

  • RHP Matt Albers; Great in 2015, awful in 2016.  Wrong side of 30, losing his swing and miss stuff.  Seems like he’s just in camp to rebuild value and likely opts out if he doesn’t make the team.
  • RHP Mike Broadway: career journeyman, was formerly with Nats in 2013 time-frame.  Little MLB experience, seems like he’s AAA insurance.
  • RHP Joe Nathan: 377 career saves, but he’s 42, was last effective as a 38yr old in 2013, and this seems like perhaps an audition for him to take a role on a coaching staff here.
  • RHP Dustin Antolin: longtime Toronto farm hand who spent 3 straight years in their AA team and was a part-time closer for their AAA team last year with good results; seems like a safe bet to close in AAA and serve as middle relief insurance.
  • RHP Derek Eitel; similar to Antolin; long time farm hand who finished a ton of games in AAA for San Diego last year.  Averaged a K/inning but had a ton of walks.
  • RHP Wander Suero: a long-serving middle relief option for the team, Suero has grown up in the system.  He’s entering his 8th pro season and I’m guessing the team wants to see if he’s a MLB middle relief option and/or an option to eventually add to the 40-man roster ahead of his pending MLFA deadline.

Left handed Relievers

  • LHP Tim Collins:  hasn’t pitched in 2 years thanks to a failed TJ surgery that cost him a second season, but was pretty effective for Kansas City to that point.  I think he has to think he’s heading to AAA to prove to teams that he’s ok.
  • LHP Braulio Lara: seems like a lottery ticket based on performances from a few years past; he got shelled in Korea, shelled in AAA recently.
  • LHP Neal Cotts: long time reliever who has had some bouts of success over the years, but who didn’t make it out of AAA last year.  Can’t see him supplanting the 40-man guys ahead of him on the Loogy pecking order.
  • LHP Nick Lee, who like Hill before him was on the 40-man and then passed through waivers to get removed from it.  He was good enough to protect in 2015 (putting up good numbers in a closing role for AA) but really struggled with his control in 2016 (42 walks in 50 innings).  Perhaps a mechanical tweak can put him back on the radar to being an effective reliever.

Tangent: The recent addition of optionless Enny Romero may complicate a 25-man path for these guys.  Or perhaps not; the arm they gave up (Jeffrey Rosa) was so insignificant that I had to look him up because I forgot who he was.  In case you were wondering, Rosa was the “ace” of this year’s GCL team, getting 11 starts and posting a 4.91 ERA.  As a 21 year old.  So that means he was a 19-yr old IFA signing from a land where most players of note sign at 16 and only the rare cases make it to 18 and still have a minor league impact.  So perhaps the team isn’t entirely wedded to Romero making the roster/challenging his no-options status.  That trade was more about Tampa shedding a 40-man spot and getting something (anything) in return.

Discussion:  So, no real “closers” in here, even if you somehow think Nathan can still produce (I don’t).  I think a couple of these guys will exercise opt-outs and the rest will sign up in AAA.  I can’t see any of them seriously challenging any of the existing 40-man arms for a spot.  The one exception could be Collins for me; he was good, had bad luck with his injury and could very well come back and be effective; is he a better Loogy option than our current set of lefties (Perez, Solis, Romero and Grace)?  I doubt it.  I like the call-up of Suero and Lee; i think its a good idea for the team to see what they have here.

Catchers:

  • Jhonatan Solano, who probably reprises his role as AAA backup for Syracause and is in camp mostly to help with all the warm-up duties.

Infielders:

  • Emmanuel Burriss: we are quite familiar with Burriss, who is a Washington DC native and was with the org two years ago.  I see little chance of him breaking with the team but he’ll do exactly what he did for us in 2015: toil in Syracuse, wait for an injury in the infield and bide his time until he can get some MLB at-bats.  In 2015 he was up by June 26th; what are the odds that the Nats infield holds up without injury again in 2017?
  • Grant Green; primarily a 2B, but can play like a utility guy around the field.  He’s a former 1st round pick and a highly regarded prospect; don’t see much of a position for him though.  Will he stick around if he doesn’t make the team?
  • Corban Joseph: owns a grand total of 7 MLB at-bats, and that was in 2013.  He has toiled in the minors for the last four full seasons, bouncing around organizations.  He plays 1B and 2B and seems like the backup to the backup for Daniel Murphy.  In other words, if Joseph is playing, we’ve really suffered some serious injuries.
  • Neftali Soto: the 2016 MLFA signing had such a solid year for the organization that they re-signed him and gave him the NRI invite this year.  I suppose he’s Ryan Zimmerman insurance … but like Snyder is a RH hitter who is more or less limited to 1B.  Hard to see a pathway for him.
  • Drew Ward: this NRI seems a bit premature; he was in A-ball a year ago this time.  But Ward also faces Rule-5 protection this coming off-season and is one of the few remaining hopes of the 2013 draft class of producing much in the way of MLB talent for the home team.  He could be a replacement for an Anthony Rendon injury at some point too.

Its hard to see any openings here, especially given the Stephen Drew re-signing.  Are any of these guys beating out Wilmer Difo?  Doubt it.

Outfielders

  • Brandon Snyder: another local product (Westfield HS in Chantilly) and another 1st round pick who has sputtered out.  He has some pop, but he bats right handed … and the RH bench spot is already committed (along with $1.4M) to Chris Heisey.  Snyder seems like AAA “spare parts” insurance for 2017.
  • Andrew Stevenson: I know he was a high draft pick, but based on what I saw of him in college i’m still kind of shocked he’s advanced so quickly.  He joins several other CF-capable players in camp and signals to me at least that the team clearly thinks he’s got a role going forward.

Note that there’s really nobody invited to compete with the likes of Michael Taylor/Brian Goodwin for 5th outfielder spot.  Yes Stevenson is a CF … does anyone think he’s MLB ready?  Snyder seems to be competition with Clint Robinson/Matt Skole/Chris Heisey for bench bat/corner spots.  He had good numbers in small sample sizes for Atlanta last  year; maybe he’s an option.  Problem is that he bats righty and the team already guaranteed money to Heisey, so there’s no direct competition for Robinson/Skole as a “corner lefty bat with some pop.”


Conclusion/predictions: I predict no NRIs make the team out of spring training right now.  But I could see several of these guys head to AAA and get call-ups in the case of a 60-day D/L trip.  And a number of the minor league invite guys will feature eventually.

Post-publishing update: indeed, no NRIs made the opening day 25-man roster, but clearly the plan was in the works to bring in NRI Jeremy Guthrie to make a spot start early into the season and perhaps stick around as the long man…. Except that Guthrie got absolutely battered in said start (10 runs in 2/3rds of an inning), leading to his immediate DFA and the subsequent call up of a second NRI Matt Albers (over, it should be noted, four other 40-man roster relievers).  Then, thanks to two quick infielder injuries the first week, a third NRI Grant Green was called-up to provide some cover.

So technically zero NRIs made the team but several were used inside of the first week.

Nats Winter Meetings Preview

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Winter Meetings 2016

Winter Meetings 2016 … here in DC!

As requested from Dr. Cane in the comments, lets chat about what we may see transpire at the upcoming Winter Meetings.  This year’s Winter meetings are a week from now, running from Sunday 12/4/16 to 12/8/16 at the Gaylord Hotel in the National Harbor.  I’m halfway curious to drive over there to witness the “scene” in the lobby/hotel bar, having read about/listened to multiple podcasts over the years describing how these meetings work.  On the other hand, I’m sure I wouldn’t appreciate it if some nerd was hanging around my office while I was trying to get work done, so maybe not :-)

In this space we’ve talked about a couple of items related to what we may see transpire in DC in the next week:

We still have some significant issues to address on the roster.  How many will we see resolved at these meetings?  Here’s some of the rumors (two good links: mlbtraderumors.com FA predictions and BleacherReports predictions)  I’ve been hearing about as they relate to the obvious holes we have to fill; apparently the Nats and Mike Rizzo are expected to be “aggressive” this winter.  I’ll take them position by position:

Center Field/Outfield

  • One rumor has the Nats moving Bryce Harper to center and buying one of the big corner OF bats on the market.  Jose Bautista or Brandon Moss.  Josh Reddick was an early name but he got snapped up quickly.  Carlos Gomez could be an interesting name.
  • I’ve read that the team will splash out cash for Yoenis Cespedes and really “go for it” during the Harper window.
  • Mark Zuckerman recently reported that Ben Revere basically played with a bum shoulder the whole season and the team may very well tender him and go into 2017 with him as the starter.
  • I’ve heard the Nats associated with Andrew McCutchen, who may actually not be a good CF any longer, but any trade for him may be tough to do since he struggled so badly in 2016.
  • Also heard that the team could be involved in trade for someone like J.D. Martinez if the Tigers attempt to re-tool their roster.
  • My Take: i’m on the “move Bryce to CF” and acquire a corner bat.  I’d be happy with any of these names as a way to bolster the offense.

Shortstop

  • All of these CF moves assume Trea Turner returns to Short and Danny Espinosa either becomes a trade candidate or assumes the Stephen Drew utility infielder role.
  • I fully support Turner back to SS; i just don’t understand those that want to keep him in Center when he’s a natural short stop and, frankly, its a heck of a lot easier to find a CF than a SS.
  • My Take: I’m on the “we should trade Espinosa” boat if he’s not the starter, if only for the rumors we read about him as a clubhouse presence when he’s not playing.

Closer

  • There’s three major closers on the market and more than three teams chasing them.  Nats not expected to be a massive overpay … but you never know.  One rumor has them on Aroldis Chapman, banking on him retaining his velocity.
  • Another rumor has the Nats being more sensible and rolling the dice on a former closer like Greg Holland and then buying up a middle reliever (someone like a Brad Ziegler) to supplement the loss of several arms from this year’s bullpen.
  • But there’s all sorts of middle relief arms out there.  Joe Blanton may get 8 figures.  Who knew.
  • My Take: I like the Holland + Ziegler/Blanton route to add to our existing Kelley/Treinen/Glover trio, then add in the two lefties Solis/Perez and you have your bullpen.  Kelley could be the closer if Holland can’t do it and that’d still give the team three really good 8th/9th inning arms.  Replace Glover with a long-man if you want, or consider that both Perez and Blanton are former starters who could suck up innings, or be original and forgoe the darn long-man and just depend on call ups if you get a ton of innings thrown by the bullpen over a short period of time.

Catcher

  • Matt Weiters to the Nats makes a lot of sense; Scott Boras client, no draft pick compensation this year.
  • The team has already missed out on a couple of catchers who have gone off the board early.
  • They may be looking a some trade targets.
  • Clearly they’re not going to go into 2017 with just Jose Lobaton and Severino.
  • Wilson Ramos seems more and more likely to be gone, perhaps a remnant of the insulting pre-injury offer they gave him, perhaps just a reality of the market for his services coming off a 2nd major knee injury.  We love the Buffalo, but he may be better suited for an AL team that can DH him every once in a while, and one that can survive until July when he’s ready to go.
  • My Take: I have no idea what they’ll do.  But they have to do something.

I don’t really think the team needs or seeks any upgrades elsewhere, but yet we still hear weird rumors every once in a while.

  • Chris Sale acquisition via trade; don’t really understand the need; yes that’d give the team three “Aces” at the top but at what cost if it requires them to gut the farm system?
  • Moves to replace Werth or Zimmerman just seem silly to consider, given the payroll implications of having those two clubhouse leader/10-and-5 guys suddenly be bench bats.  I don’t see this team, this manager or this executive group knee capping franchise defining players like that, especially when they’re still relatively serviceable.   Werth was a 1.1 win player last year with a WRC+ figure north of 100.  Zimmerman was worth negative fWAR of course, but he was hurt most of the season, so its kind of hard to gauge what he’ll do in 2017.  He’s only 32 after all, and is under contract for a while longer.

Its impossible to predict trades that come out of the blue, but it is worth noting that the Nats have some surpluses of talent that they can trade from:

  • I count nine starters on the 40-man roster, which means that several could be trade bait.  We’ve heard rumors about Giolito, Lopez, Voth, Cole, Fedde and Gonzalez all getting packed up to move out.  And that leaves out some lesser-renounded but still promising arms lower down in the system (Dunning of course, but also the likes of Avila, Baez, Watson, etc).
  • There’s now TEN (10) infielders on the 40-man; I see a couple of DFAs/trades (Espinosa of course, and the loser of Skole/Robinson perhaps), and its hard to see a pathway for others (where does Marmolejos play for example?), but that’s a lot of infielders for 4 starting spots and and at most six 25-man jobs.
  • We have more than a few rising quality outfielders, headed by Robles and new 40-man member Bautista, but also including the likes of Stevenson, Agustin, Wiseman, Perkins and Banks.

What do you guys see happening?

 

2016 Season Statistical review of the 2014 Draft Class

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Fedde has been trending good... the rest of the class? Not so much. Photo via minorleagueball.com

Fedde has been trending good… the rest of the class? Not so much. Photo via minorleagueball.com

Third in our set of Draft class Reviews for the 2016 season.  First was the 2016 class, then the 2015 class.

Web links to use while reading:

With out further ado…


Round 1: Erick Fedde RHP (starter) COL jr from UNLV.  8-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) across 2 levels.  123/29 K/BB in 121 IP.  1.21 combined whip, 3.22 fip and .316 babip in Potomac.  Fedde began the year in the Potomac rotation and struggled in his first 6-7 starts.  Then something clicked; from late May through his eventual promotion to AA in early august, he threw 10 straight starts giving up 0 or 1 earned runs, driving his ERA down from somewhere in the 6.60 range in May to a sub 3.00 ERA for the year in High-A.  His final Potomac start may have been his best: 10 strikeouts, 5 hits and 1 unearned run in 7 innings.  In his limited time in AA, he had one blow-out but was other wise also solid (in his last start of the season he had 12 strikeouts in 6 innings).  Fedde looks completely back to his first round projection form and may quickly add his name to the list of guys in AAA pushing for a promotion to the majors.   Trending up.

Round 2: Andrew Suarez LHP (starter) COL jr  from Miami (FL).  Did not sign: 2nd round signee for San Francisco in 2015.  Spent most of 2016 starting for SF’s AA team in Richmond and looked solid.  He may need another year in AA.

Round 3: Jakson Reetz, C  Norris HS (NE).  Slashed .230/.346/.357 splitting time at C in Hagerstown.  79/38 K/BB, 4homers, 4SBs.  Reetz’ first foray into full-season ball did not result in appreciably better results all around at the plate.  He improve his slugging percentage with more XBH, but his average remains poor.  79 Ks in 283 ABs is a hefty percentage.  This was his age 20 season, playing in Low-A, and there’s not a ton of competition for the High-A catcher job next year, so he likely moves on up, but i’m a bit down on him at this point.  Perhaps unfairly.  Truth is, he got a big bonus and the team will give him plenty of room to grow.  Trending down.

Round 4: Robbie Dickey, RHP (reliever) from Blinn College (TX). 2-0, 3.48 ERA for two levels relieving.  26/18 K/BB in 20 2/3rds innings.  1.89 whip, 5.60 fip, .345 babip while in Hagerstown.  Dickey started the season in Short-A, his third successive year in Auburn.  This time though he forced his way up, featuring as a reliever now instead of a starter, giving up 1 hit in 8 innings and quickly getting pushed up to Hagerstown.  Once there, he quickly got hurt and when he returned his control left him; he walked 15 but struck out 15 in 12 2/3 low-A innings.  He now has 46 walks in 78 professional innings and we may begin wondering when he’s going to put things together.  2017 is a make-or-break season for Dickey; he’s going to be (believe it or not) rule-5 eligible after next season and he’s yet to come close to mastering Low-A.  I’m guessing he’s in the Hagerstown bullpen and as an upper round pick will be given a few more chances before the team cuts bait.   Trending down.

Round 5: Drew Van Orden RHP (starter) COL sr from Duke.  Released 3/16/16.  Now this kind of surprised me.  No he wasn’t a dominant swing and miss guy in 2015 (47 Ks in 92 IP) but he gave the team a bunch of innings at a 3.61 ERA clip.  I guess he’s a victim of the pitcher-heavy drafts of this time frame.  He’s also a victim of being a low bonus, low investment senior sign.

Round 6: Austen Williams RHP (starter) COL jr from Texas State.  Went 5-13 with a 5.45 ERA in 26 starts for High-A and AA.  78/48 K/BB in 140 1/3 innings, 1.74 whip, 5.00 fip and .339 babip while in AA.  Williams was in the opening day AA rotation after a stellar 2015 but was demoted back to High-A after two months of AA struggles.  Once back in High-A, he couldn’t repeat his 2015 success there and got hit hard.  His Potomac ERA was 3 points higher this year than it was last year.  His 2015 season put him on the prospect map (around 20th on Nats prospect lists) and his 2016 season has caused his name to vanish.  Now what?  I guess you start him back in AA again and hope that the 2nd time around is better.  Trending down.

Round 7: Dale “D.K.” Carey OF (CF) COL sr from Miami (FL).  Slashed .209/.341/.331 while playing all three OF positions for Potomac.  84/63 K/BB ratio in 326 ABs, 7 homers, 5 SBs.  A ton of walks jacked up his OBP and helped off set his poor BA in High-A this year.  Carey’s problem is that the OF spots are scarce the higher you go.  He played along side the best hitting prospect in our system (Victor Robles) and 2015 2nd round pick Andrew Stevenson has already passed him by.  He may be victim of a numbers game in 2017, all the more so since he was signed for a relative pittance as a senior.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get cut loose at the end of spring training 2017.  Trending down.

Round 8: Jeff Gardner, LF COL sr from Louisville.  Released 6/6/16.  As predicted, Gardner failed to make Hagerstown and then failed to prove he could earn an Auburn job and was released once the 2016 signings came in.

Round 9: Austin Byler, 1B COL jr for Nevada (Reno).  Did not sign: became an 11th round by Arizona in 2015.  He ended 2016 with Arizona’s high-A Visalia team after serving a PED suspension that cost him the first two months of the season.

Round 10: Matthew Page, RF/1B COL sr  from Oklahoma Baptist U.  Slashed .267/.348/.419 while earning a promotion from Low-A to High-A.  99/53 K/BB in 415 ABs.  11 homers, 3 SBs.  Yes that’s a lot of Ks.  But Page is turning into a nice little pick up.  He had an OPS above .800 and slugged 10 homers in 88 games for Hagerstown before earning a promotion to Potomac.  Playing 1B exclusively this year (he was drafted as a RF) he really struggled power-wise once he got to High-A (just 3 XBH in 30 games), but he earned the promotion in the first place.  I don’t think there’s anyone to push him off the position to start next year at Potomac … but he’s gotta rebound and show he can hit in High-A like he did in Low-A.  Trending Steady.

Round 11: Weston Davis RHP (starter) Manatee HS (FL).  Went 3-6 with a 2.67 ERA in 11 starts for Auburn.  33/11 K/BB in 54 IP, 0.93 whip, 3.07 fip, .236 babip.  Davis missed all of 2015 after signing out of HS in 2014, was in the Auburn opening day rotation and stayed there the whole season.  He turned 20 during the season but more than held his own against the older competition.  He looks pretty promising after missing a whole year and barely pitching his draft year.  My one nit is his K rate; just 33 in 54 IP.  He should be in the Hagerstown rotation to start 2017.  Trending Up.

Round 12: Domenick Mancini RHP (reliever) from Miami-Dade CC South.  Released 6/27/15.

Round 13: Austin Davidson, 3B COL jr  from Pepperdine.  Slashed a healthy .272/.377/.443 between Low- and  High-A in 2016.  46/49 K/BB ratio in 316 ABs, 9 hrs and 5 SB.   Davidson was stranded in XST to start the year then returned to Hagerstown in late April only to play sparingly until June.   From there he played pretty consistently both for Hagerstown and then for Potomac (he got promoted in early July for the 2nd Half).  He had solid numbers and a great OBP in both land a solid enough slugging even without a ton of homers.  He also had more walks than strikeouts, which I believe is the first time I’ve seen that for any hitter profiled in these posts.  His problem seems to be positional; he’s listed as a “DH” on Milb.com, was drafted as a 3B but played in the field sparingly this year (some 2B, some 3B).  I’d guess he’s pegged for a 2B slot, but then that has him competing with the generic “middle infielder” type who is dotted all over these low-minors rosters.  Nonetheless, he’s not going to get cut when he’s one of the few guys posting .800 OPS figures in the system, so i’m trending him up.  I figure he’ll do the Potomac to Harrisburg thing in 2017 assuming he continues to be a tough out.  Trending up.

Round 14: James Bourque RHP (starter) COL jr from Michigan.  5-6 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 games/13 starts for Hagerstown.  55/23 K/BB in 68ip.  1.53 whip, 4.89 fip, .327 babip.  Bourque missed all of 2015 with injury and then hung around XST until early June.  From there he featured in the Hagerstown rotation for the most part, but his role seemed to be “spot starter” instead of rotation guy.   He didn’t have the best numbers, no two ways around it.  Maybe it was rust.  I’m guessing he’ll get another shot at the Hagerstown rotation in 2017 but may be a release candidate.  Trending Down.

Round 15: Ryan Ripken 1B COL soph from Indian River State (FL).  Slashed just .201/.241/.254 between Low-A and Short-A.  73/20 K/BB in 374 ABs, 3HR, 1SB.  Ripken started the year in Hagerstown but hit just .190 and got dumped back to Short-A.  He’s now got three pro years under his belt and is hitting just .205 for his career, mostly in short-season ball.  Its hard to see him continuing to get chances even given his family pedigree.   Trending down.

Round 16: Cole Plouck LHP (reliever) from Pima CC (AZ): Released on 6/29/15.

Round 17: Alec Keller CF COL sr from Princeton by way of Richmond VA and Freeman HS.  Slashed .285/.338/.374 playing a full season (mostly in LF) for Potomac.  78/35 K/BB, 3homers, 14SB.  Keller more or less replicated his High-A numbers posted in the 2nd half of 2015; solid average, not a ton of power.  Keller’s issue is that the tryouts for the AA outfield are looking tough; he may be hard pressed to get a promotion in a corner OF spot without any power.  I’m guessing he makes AA as a 4th outfielder in 2017.  As I noted last year though, he’s performing great for a senior sign from an Ivy league school.  Trending Steady.

Round 18: McKenzie Mills,  LHP (starter), Sprayberry Senior HS (GA). 4-5, 3.71 ERA in 12 starts for Short-A.   46/28 K/BB in 53 1/3 innings, 1.33 whip, 4.03 fip, .269 babip.  Mills was the #2 starter in Auburn to start the season … and was the #2 starter at the end of the season.  He posted a solid season; not awe-inspiring but pretty good for a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until next month.  He addressed the issues that plagued him in 2015 and his hits/inning figure looks great.  I’d like to see how he does in full season ball and project him in the Hagerstown rotation in 2017.  Trending Steady.

Round 19: Clay Williamson,  OF (RF) COL jr from Cal State Fullerton.  Released 6/29/15.

Round 20: Bryan Langlois, RF COL jr from Pepperdine: Apparently retired Jan 2015 (per the Big Board), but he doesn’t have an official transaction listed in MILB.com.  He didn’t play for us after 2014 despite not being officially released.

Round 21: Connor Bach, LHP COL sr from Virginia Military Institute by way of Centreville HS in Clifton.  Went 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA in 5 relief appearances in Low-A and then was released on 6/1/16.   This one was another shocker for me; he was in Hagerstown’s rotation the whole of 2015 and was good; what happened to him in 2016?   Miami picked him up 6 days after we released him but he was similarly bad for them and they cut him loose a month later.  Such a strange set of circumstances.

Round 22: Daniel Salters, C COL soph  from Dallas Baptist: did not sign: drafted by Cleveland in the 13th round of 2015 draft.  He was in High-A and AA for Cleveland this year.

Round 23: Chris Riopedre, SS COL jr, East Tennessee State.  Released on 6/25/15.

Round 24: Kyle Simmons RHP (reliever) COL jr Texas Lutheran U.  Released on 5/3/16 after not appearing in 2015 and failing to make a full season squad in 2016.

Round 25: Kyle Bacak C COL sr  from Texas Christian U.  Released 1/20/15.

Round 26: Chase McDowell RHP (reliever) COL 5S  Rice (TX): Retired 4/9/15

Round 27: Conor Keniry SS COL sr Wake Forest U.  Released on 4/2/16 after playing sparingly in 2015 and failing to make either Hagerstown or Potomac as a backup infielder.

Round 28: Kida De La Cruz, RHP (reliever) from Volunteer State CC (TN). Released on 3/26/16 after throwing just 19 innings in two seasons in the GCL.

Round 29: DJ Jauss, RHP COL 5S from U. Mass. Amherst: Released 3/26/15.

Round 30: Tyler Mapes RHP COL sr from Tulane U. (LA).  went 12-10 with a 3.19 ERA for AA Harrisburg.  25 games/25 starts.  78/39 K/BB ratio in 155 innings.  1.25 whip, 4.22 fip, .283 babip.  Mapes was the #2 starter in Harrisburg all  year and continues to be a fantastic draft pickup for this team.  Who would have thought a 30th rounder college senior who probably signed for a few thousand dollars would be on the brink of the AAA roster?  He doesn’t have the best strikeout numbers, which may define a glass ceiling for him, but he should continue to matriculate to AAA next year.  That being said, its crowded at the top, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back in AA.   Trending up.

Round 31: Samuel Johns RHP COL 5S U. Evansville (IN).  Released 1/12/16.  What was surprising about this release was the timing; why not let him compete in spring training for a Hagerstown spot?  The January release is an odd one.

The rest of the 2014 draft class was HS kids who were long shots to sign and a Juco kid in the 40th who already had a transfer agreement to a good baseball school; one more piece of evidence to perhaps shorten the draft to 35 or even 30 rounds?  Here’s a quick summary.

Round 32: Elliott Cary: CF Clackamas HS (OR): did not sign: honored commitment to Oregon State.    Started 24 games as a freshman but did not play in 2016 (injured?).
Round 33: Clay Casey: CF DeSoto Central HS (MS): did not sign: was initially set to attend Ole Miss, but then changed his mind and attended Northwest Mississippi CC to be draft eligible in 2015.  He didn’t get drafted though, so he then enrolled at the U. of Houston.  Update: things didn’t work out there, so he transferred to D2 Delta State University, where he had a successful 2017 season in what was his “junior” year.
Round 34: Evan Skoug: C Libertyville HS (IL): did not sign: honored commitment to TCU.  At TCU he has been a starter since day 1 and was named Freshman All-American.  As a sophomore he slashed .301/.390/.502 and was 2nd team all-conference.  I’d say its safe to say he has made himself some money in College.
Round 35: Tommy Doyle RHP Flint Hill School in Oakton: did not sign: honored commitment to Virginia.  At UVA, Doyle played an integral part in getting UVA out of the regional his freshman year but did little else for the team as UVA surprisingly won the CWS.  As a sophomore, he had a 5.07 ERA all told as he was convered from mid-week starter to “closer” towards the end of the season.  I’m guessing he’s back in the rotation for his junior year as the Cavaliers are a bit short on starters.
Round 36: John Henry Styles, LHP Episcopal HS (TX): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford.  There, he’s had almost no playing time, getting 5 appearances as a freshman and just one as a sophomore.
Round 37: Quinn Brodey, LHP Loyola HS (CA): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford.  There he was a 2-way player as a freshman but moved to the OF as a sophomore, slashing .280/.302/.445 this year and being named All Pac-12.
Round 38: Stuart Fairchild RF Seattle Prep (WA): did not sign: honored commitment to Wake Forest.  As a sophomore this year he started every game and slashed .293/.403/.470.
Round 39: Jon Littell, OF Stillwater HS (OK): did not sign: honored commitment to OK State.  As a sophomore this year, he slashed .258/.332/.343.
Round 40: Jacob Hill LHP JUCO Orange Coast Coll. (CA): did not sign: transferred to U San Diego, then was drafted by Cleveland in the 32nd round of 2015 and also did not sign.  He went back to San Diego for his senior year, only threw 8 innings in 2016 and was not drafted.


Trending Summary:

  • Trending Up (4): Fedde, Davis, Davidson, Mapes
  • Trending Steady (3): Page, Keller, Mills
  • Trending Down (6): Reetz, Dickey, Williams, Carey, Bourque, Ripken
  • Released/Retired (15): Van Orden, Gardner, Mancini, Plouck, Williamson, Langlois, Bach, Riopedre, Simmons, Bacak, McDowell, Keniry, De La Cruz, Jauss, Johns
  • Did Not Sign in 2014 (12): Suarez, Byler, Salters, Cary, Casey, Skoug, Doyle, Styles, Brodey, Fairchild, Littell, Hill

Executive Summary

At this point just 7 of the 40 players are trending in what can inarguably be considered a positive fashion; 15 of the 28 players signed have already been cut loose and another 6 of them are  heading that way.  Is this destined to be a one-player draft?  Who else besides Fedde is projecting as a major leaguer?

2016 Season Statistical review of the 2015 Draft Class

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Years from now we may be saying Tyler Watson is the class of this draft. Photo via auburnpub.com

Years from now we may be saying Tyler Watson is the class of this draft. Photo via auburnpub.com

Second in our set of Draft class Reviews.  First was the 2016 class.

Web links to use while reading:

With out further ado…


 

Round 1: forfeited by virtue of the Max Scherzer signing.  Would have been the 26th pick overall, which ended up being Taylor Ward, a C from Fresno State.  Ward stepped back a bit in 2016, losing nearly 300 points off his OPS in High-A, but is still listed as the Angel’s #3 prospect.

Round 2: Andrew Stevenson, OF (CF).  COL jr from Louisiana State.  Slashed .276/.332/.374 across 2 levels, spending three months in Potomac and then finishing the season in Harrisburg.  95/44 K/BB ratio, 3 homers and 39SBs in 529 ABs.  He was also named an All-star for Potomac this year and was the MVP of the Carolina-California League all-star game.  Two years in the system and two multi-level promotions for Stevenson.  Clearly he profiles as a “speedy leadoff-center fielder” type, so you’d like to see his overall OBP improve.  You’d like to see fewer strikeouts too.  Otherwise, its hard to quibble.  He’s also starting to get some notice on prospect rankings; last  year he was generally in the 10-14 range for our system.  Now I’m seeing him ranked in the 6-10 range.   He’s taken his talents to the Arizona Fall League, where i’m curious to see how he fares against top-end AA/AAA competition.  Maybe our long term CF solution is in-house after all.  Post-Writing update: Stevenson lit up the AFL, hitting north of .350 and being named by MLB.com as being a breakout starTrending up.

Round 2: Blake Perkins, OF (CF) from Verrado HS, Buckeye, Ariz.  Slashed .233/.318/.281 for Auburn this year before spending the last week in Hagerstown (part of the typical 9/1 cascading minor league roster shuffle), with 39/25 K/BB in 210 ABs.  1HR, 10SB.   Another player who (like Stevenson) is a “Leadoff-CF” type (for Auburn he only played CF and only lead-off).  As we learned last year, he’s learning switch hitting and its showing in his stat line; as a righty against lefties he slashed .306/.343/.355, but as a lefty against righties he slashed only .203/.308/.250.  Ugh.   I wonder if the team, which asked him to learn switch hitting even before they drafted him, will eventually just let him focus on his strengths.  His overall batting line continues to depress his prospect value; he’s generally ranked somewhere in the 16-21 range for the system right now after being in the 10-12 range after his drafting.  I’ll say Trending steady since his RH split is so good and he may just eventually go back to it full time.

Round 3: Rhett Wiseman, OF (corner), COL jr from Vanderbilt.  Slashed .255/.325/.410  in a full season in Low-A with 104/42 K/BB in 478ABs.  13  homers, 19 SBs.  Wiseman played exclusively RF and was mostly the clean-up hitter for Hagerstown and had a solid season, but not without some red-flags.  104 Ks in 478Abs isn’t like 30% awful, but its getting up there.  He did have a nice balance of homers and Stolen Bases; if you’ve ever seen Hagerstown’s stadium you’ll know it isn’t the easiest place to hit (indeed; his away split shows an OPS figure 140 points higher than at home).   He only hit .198 against lefties, exhibiting a typical failing of a lot of lefty power hitters.  I’m going with Trending steady and would like to see how he does in more of a hitter’s park.  

Round 4: Mariano Rivera Jr, RHP (reliever) COL sr from Iona.  Went 5-1 with a 4.04 ERA in Low-A with 52/22 K/BB in 69 relief innings.  1.35whip, 4.49fip, .296 babip.  He was also 8 for 14 in Save opportunities as the Hagerstown bullpen seemed to do closer by committee (12 different relievers had a Save this year for Hagerstown).   Rivera Jr. improved his numbers across the board in the jump from Short-A to Low-A and seems permanently relegated to the bullpen at this point.  But we’re not seeing the lights-out production that you’d want to see in the low minors from a future reliever.  I think he’ll keep moving up next year of course, based on his draft pedigree and name only, but where’s the dominance that his father showed?   It may also just be a case of short sample size unluckiness; he gave up 9 runs between two consecutive outings in June; those two innings cost him more than a point on his ERA for the season.  We’d be having a different conversation if he had a 2.92 ERA in 67 innings instead of a 4.04 ERA in 69 innings.  Still want to see a K/inning.  Trending steady

Round 5: Taylor Hearn, LHP (reliever) COL jr from Oklahoma Baptist.  Was 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA for Hagerstown this year when he got traded to Pittsburgh (along with Felipe Rivero) in the Mark Melancon deal.  For Pittsburgh’s low-A team he’s continued to be solid, posting a 1.99 ERA with 36Ks in 22 innings for their low-A team.  I know we had some seller’s lament about parting ways with both Rivero and Hearn, especially when a few weeks later the team had to trade a decent hitting prospect to acquire 5 weeks worth of a veteran lefty.  But you have to give up players to get players, right?   Out of the Organization.

Round 6: Matt Crownover, LHP (starter) COL jr. from Clemson.  Posted a 9-5 record with a 3.36 ERA across two levels this year  110/42 K/BB in 128 2/3 IP combined.  For Potomac specifically; 4-4, 4.28 ERA, 1.45 whip, 4.48 fip, .317 babip.  Crownover quickly showed he was too good for Low-A (1.17 ERA his first two months there) and then settled into Potomac’s rotation for the rest of the year.  He wasn’t as lights out in Potomac but was solid.  He nearly led Potomac in starts and was part of their post-season rotation (where he pitched into the seventh and gave up just one earned run but took the loss in the season finale).  I could see him starting next year in Potomac with an eye towards jumping up to AA similarly to the way he split time this year.  Trending Up.

Round 7: Grant Borne, LHP (starter/reliever) COL jr from Nicholls State.  Went 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA in a full season at Hagerstown.  46/11 K/BB in 59 1/3 innings of mostly long relief.  1.20 whip, 3.15 fip, .307 babip.  Borne didn’t make the rotation in Hagerstown but seemed to stay on somewhat of a starter’s schedule, throwing every 4th or 5th day for 2-3 innings at a clip.  All his numbers improved over what they were in Short-A last year, which is great for a guy jumping to full season ball.  A couple of bad outings in August spoiled his numbers; otherwise his month by month splits all were pretty solid.  I see no reason for him not to serve as a spot-starter in Potomac next year.  Trending Up.

Round 8: Koda Glover, RHP (reliever) COL sr from Oklahoma State.  Was 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA combined across three minor league levels, resulting with a call-up to the Majors on 7/20/16.  In DC he posted a 5.03 ERA in 19 innings and was left off the post-season roster in favor of a third lefty (due to who the Nats were playing most-likely), but that did nothing to diminish what an amazing rise he had in 2016.  To go from High-A to pitching 7th and 8th innings in high-leverage games inside of 5 months is amazing.  His outlook for 2017 is repeating as a 7th inning RHP in the MLB bullpen with a future eye perhaps on closing for this team if he can prove himself reliable enough.  Matriculated to the Majors.

Round 9: David Kerian, 1b COL sr from Illinois.  Slashed just .144/.186/.226 while repeating Short A.  31/7 K/BB with 1 homer.  Kerian failed to make the Hagerstown squad out of spring training and then struggled mightily while repeating Short-A.  I’m surprised he hasn’t been released already.  He was a long-shot to contribute after being a senior sign/low bonus guy and he seems destined for a release soon.  Trending Down.  Post publishing update: Kerian was released on 12/15/16, fulfilling my guesses on his disposition unfortunately.

Round 10: Taylor Guilbeau, LHP (starter) COL sr  from Alabama. 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA in a full season in Hagerstown.  99/27 K/BB in 107 1/3 innings split between starting and relieving.  1.43 whip, 3.15 fip, .360 babip.  Guilbeau didn’t make the Hagerstown roster out of spring training, but settled into the rotation for the beginning of the 2nd half and stayed there the rest of the way.  As a starter his ERA was 3 points better than as a reliever (2.55 versus 5.36), and he looks like a very solid lefty starter.  His performance is even more impressive considering his dim draft pedigree; like Kerian above him he was a senior sign for limited dollars.  If he turns out to be successful the Nats front office should really do something nice for the area scout.  Trending up.

Round 11: Andrew Lee, RHP (starter) COL jr from Tennessee.  Was 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in Hagerstown.  46/18 K/BB in 51 innings.  1.24 whip, 3.15 fip, .308 BABIP.  Lee was the opening day starter for Hagerstown after having finished there in 2015, had 11 solid starts and then hit the D/L on 6/7/16, remaining there for the duration of the season.  I could not find much detail on his injury.  He was trending pretty well though; solid K ratios and a good FIP.   Trending steady thanks to the unknown injury, otherwise i’d say Trending up again.

Round 12: Tommy Peterson RHP (reliever) COL jr  from South Florida.  Went 4-2 with a 2.64ERA bouncing between Hagerstown and Potomac.  56/14 K/BB in 58 relief innings, with very solid FIP and BABIP numbers in Hagerstown but not so much in Potomac.  For Hagerstown he was an effective closer; for Potomac he was used more as a setup guy.  He struggled with the jump to High-A and seems like to try it again from the on-set next year.  Trending steady.

Round 13: Max Schrock, 2B COL jr from South Carolina.  Had an OPS north of .800 for both Hagerstown and Potomac before getting flipped to Oakland in late August for Marc Rzepczynski.  Oakland quickly put him to AA where he hit well and now is in the AFL.  He’s the most polarizing Nats prospect I can think of since perhaps Brad Peacock or Billy Burns.  Schrock was paid like a 4th rounder in terms of bonus money and never failed to hit at any level, so we shouldn’t necessarily think of him as the equivalent of a 13th rounder.  The knock on him is his size; he’s just 5’8″ in a sport that calls anyone under 6′ “short.”  Nonetheless, he was a high price to pay for 5 weeks of a veteran lefty, and we’ve had no shortage of arguments here about the trade, what led to its necessity, and the price we paid for Rzepczynski.  We’ll just have to “Trust in Rizzo” again and hope we don’t get burned on Schrock.  Out of the Organization.

Round 14: Mack Lemieux LHP (starter) from Jupiter Community HS (FL): did not sign.  At the time of his drafting we thought he was heading to Florida Atlantic University (FAU).  Instead, he headed to JuCo (Palm Beach State in Florida) and was Arizona’s 6th round pick this year.  He split time between Rookie and Short-A ball in his age-19 season and performed well.

Round 15: Kevin Mooney,  RHP (reliver) COL jr from UofMaryland.  0-2 with a 3.33 ERA while repeating Short-A.  19/11 K/BB in 24 1/3 innings.  1.19 whip, 3.69 fip, .257 babip.  Despite repeating the level, he improved markedly from last year (shaving 2 points off his ERA).  He should have earned his way to a full-season reliever job in 2017.  Trending Steady.

Round 16: Ian Sagdal, SS COL sr  from Washington State U.  Slashed .303/.362/.474 in a full season with Hagerstown with 90/36 K/BB in 409 ABs.  10 homers, 6SB.  Sagdal was listed as the “DH” but played like a corner-utility guy, jumping around and playing some 1B, some LF, some 2B (he was drafted as a SS but his 6’3″ frame clearly can’t handle the position defensively).  Its hard to argue against a .300 hitter with power though, so lets see what he can do next year against better competition.  He has definitely improved his standing since last year (when he hit just .235 in Auburn).  Trending Steady.

Round 17: Dalton Dulin, 2B from Northwest Mississippi CC.  Slashed just .186/.277/.265 while repeating Short-A.  34/13 K/BB in 113 AB playing 2B, 0 homers, 7 SB.  A huge step back for the JuCo signing, who turned 22 in May.   He split time at 2B with 2016’s Jake Noll among others, and i’d be very surprised if he isn’t released next spring when he inevitably fails to make the Hagerstown squad.  Trending Down.

Round 18: Melvin Rodriguez 2B COL sr from Jackson State U. (MS).  Released 4/2/16, presumably after not making the Hagerstown squad and likely being “behind” others at the position (others like the man just mentioned Dalton Dulin).  He got picked up by the Indy league team in Joliet and played 79 games for them this year.  I’m not sure if I noticed this last year, but he was *old* coming out of college.  This is his second pro year and he turned 25 in February.

Round 19: Clayton Brandt SS COL sr from MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS).  Slashed just .179/.271/.248 in Short-A, 33/16 K/BB in 145 ABs.  0 homers, 2 SBs.  These numbers are rather similar to his numbers last year in the GCL, but it isn’t like there was another high-powered middle infield star prospect pushing him; the other two “short stops” on Auburn’s roster this year were equally inept with the bat.  Like others above with batting averages below .200, i’m saying Trending Down but I wonder if some of these guys will hang around into 2017 simply to fill roster spots.  Post publishing update: Brandt voluntarily retired on on 12/15/16.

Round 20: John Reeves C, COL sr  from Rice (TX): did not sign.  Despite being listed as a “College Senior” he really was a 4th year junior and opted to return for his 5th year.  A quick check at Rice’s 2016 stats page shows that Reeves did not play for Rice in 2016; It does not look like he was re-drafted, nor play in any independent leagues.  A curious case; if the Nats felt like it was worthy of a 20th round pick, why have we not pursued him since he’s now freely available?  Unless this was a “favor pick” to someone … but a 20th round pick seems way early for a throwaway pick.

Round 21: Matt Pirro, RHP (reliever) COL sr  from Wake Forest. 3-2, 4.43 ERA across two levels, ending in Short-A.   17/12 k/bb in 22 1/3ip, 1.30 combined whip, 6.50 fip, .217 babip in short-A.  Pirro failed to make even the Short-A team once the 2016 class was signed; he repeated both levels he played at last year with worse numbers.  He struggled last year and he struggled again this year.  Hard to see him here for the long term.  Trending Down.  Post publishing update: Pirro was released on 12/15/16, indeed a release candidate.

Round 22: Adam Boghosian RHP (reliever) COL 5s from North Greenville U. (SC).  Released 3/26/16 when he didn’t make a full-season squad.

Round 23: Alec Rash, RHP (starter) COL jr from Missouri: did not sign. Initially it seemed that Rash was returning to school to try to rebuild his value after an injury plagued collegiate career.  Word came out though in Sept of 2015 that he was quitting the team (and the sport) for good.  A tough break for Rash, who passed up 2nd round money in 2012 and now has nothing to show for it.

Round 24: Blake Smith RHP (reliever) COL jr  West Virginia: did not sign.  Returned for his “senior” year with West Virginia and was drafted by the Angels in the 29th round of the 2016 draft.  He put up decent numbers for their Low-A affiliate this year.

Round 25: Calvin Copping RHP (reliever) COL jr from Cal. State Northridge.  Released on 3/16/16 when it became clear he wouldn’t make Hagerstown.

Round 26: Russell “Rocky” Harmening. RHP (reliever) COL jr Westmont Coll (CA).  0-1, 2.57 ERA for Auburn this year.  23/8 K/BB in 28 relief innings. 1.21 whip, 3.06 fip, .294 BABIP.  A  nice 2nd pro season for Harmening, who improved his numbers across the board jumping from GCL to Short-A.  He also apparently now goes by “Rocky.”  Should make the Hagerstown pen as a middle reliever.  Trending Steady.

Round 27: Ryan Brinley, RHP (reliever) COL jr from Sam Houston State U. (TX).  Posted a 4-3 record with a 3.55 ERA across two levels.  38/9 K/BB in 50 2/3 innings.  1.07 whip combined, 2.68 fip and .243 babip in Potomac.  Brinley was a surprise performer last year and he continued his good work this year; he made the Potomac team out of spring and dominated there for two months before getting promoted to AA.  There however, he struggled, giving up 14 runs and 17 hits in 11 innings, and was back in Potomac by August 1st.  Presumably he’s going to try AA again next spring.  Trending Up.

Round 28: Mick VanVossen RHP (reliever) COL sr from Michigan State U. 4-4, 4.25 ERA across 2 levels.  50/19 K/.BB in 59 1/3 innings, mostly with Hagerstown. 1.28 whip, 4.13fip, .285 babip while in in Low-A.  He bounced around in what seemed like a bunch of procedural moves but was essentially a middle reliever for Low-A all year.  He had relatively solid numbers in Hagerstown and should get a look at moving up a level for 2017.   Trending Steady.

Round 29: Philip Diedrick OF COL sr  Western Kentucky U.  Released 4/2/16 after struggling in 2015 in the GCL.  No surprise here.

Round 30: Jorge Pantoja RHP (reliever) COL jr Alabama State U.  9-2 with a 3.20 ERA across two levels.  46/19 K/BB in 64 2/3s innings, mostly with Hagerstown.  1.15 whip, 2.67 fip, .302 babip while in Low-A.  As we noted last summer, he just needed some time to show that his 2015 numbers were better than they appeared, and the team was rewarded.  Pantoja went 9-1 with a 2.63 ERA for Hagerstown this year, earning a bump up to Potomac on August 8th.  He struggled there, walking 9 guys in 10 innings after walking just 10 in 54 innings in Hagerstown.  Nonetheless, he’s looking up and should be a solid Potomac bullpen guy (later innings or perhaps closer) in 2017. He’s playing in the Mexican Winter League this off-season.  Trending Up.

Round 31: Nick Sprengel LHP (starter) from El Dorado HS (CA): did not sign.  Honored his commitment to the U of San Diego, where he went 3-5 with a 6.17 ERA his freshman year as a mid-week starter.

Round 32: Dalton DiNatale 3B COL jr Arizona State U.   Released 6/7/16; he hung around for a bit after not making a full-season squad and then got released once the 2016 draft occurred.

Round 33: Angelo La Bruna SS COL 5S  from U. Southern California.  Slashed .246/.320/.325 between Short-A and Low-A, with 20/12 K/BB in 114 total ABs.  1hr, 2SB playing 2B and SS.  La Bruna was assigned initially to Short-A, but came out on fire going 10-21 and quickly getting bumped to Low-A.  There he was less effective, hitting just .194 with little power (5 XBH in 33 games).   If I sense a recurring theme among these reviews so far of the 2016 and 2015 classes, its relatively zero depth in the middle infield.  So I see no reason for La Bruna not to hang around another year.  Trending Steady.

Round 34: Tyler Watson LHP (starter) from Perry HS (AZ).  2-3, 2.64 ERA split between Short-A and Low-A.  64/15 K/BB in 58IP, 1.05 whip, 2.05 whip and .261 babip in Auburn.  Watson was the opening day starter for Auburn after turning 19 in late May and had an awesome season; in 9 starts facing competition that was (on average) 2.4 years older than he was, he had a 1.88 ERA and gave up just 30 hits and 9 walks in 48 innings.  His ERA jumped when he got to Hagerstown but his peripherals did not; he still struck out a guy an inning and his Hagerstown FIP was 2.87.  He looks like he could be a stud.  He has nothing left to prove in Short-A; I’d expect him to be in the Low-A rotation in 2017 but to have his season cut short as they build up pro innings on his arm.  Trending Up.

Round 35: Coco Montes SS from Coral Gables HS (FL): did not sign.  Montes honored his commitment to South Florida.  At USF Montes was a starter as a Freshman and slashed .218/.287/.264.  

Round 36: Taylor Bush SS from The Linfield School (CA): did not sign.  Bush honored his commitment to Westmont College.  As a freshman, got into 30 games and only had 15 ABs in a late-innings defensive replacement role.

Round 37: Steven DiPuglia SS from Cooper City HS (FL): did not sign.  DiPuglia  honored his commitment to Western Kentucky.  At WKU, DiPuglia started as a freshman and slashed .253/.323/.264.

Round 38: Matt Morales SS from Wellington Community HS (FL): did not sign.  Morales honored his commitment to Stetson University.  At Stenson, Morales started as a freshman and slashed .250/.324/.286.

Round 39: Jake Jefferies 2B COL jr  from Cal. State Fullerton.  Hit .208 in 24 ABs for Auburn in Short-A before being released on 7/5/16.  He just never showed enough at the plate despite being chased by this organization for years (they drafted him in 2012 as well).

Round 40: Parker Quinn 1B from The Benjamin School (FL): did not sign.  Quinn honored his commitment to Hofstra.  Quinn had no stats for Hofstra in 2016, either he didn’t make the varsity team or he was hurt.  His Twitter account still reports him as being at Hofstra and being class of 2019, so i’m not sure what his status is.

 


Trending Summary:

  • Matriculated to Majors: (1): Glover
  • Trending Up (7): Stevenson, Crownover, Borne, Guilbeau, Brinley, Pantoja, Watson
  • Trending Steady (10): Perkins, Wisemann, Rivera Jr, Lee, Peterson, Mooney, Sagdal, Harmening, Van Vossen, La Bruna
  • Trending Down (4): Kerian, Dulin, Brandt, Pirro
  • Released/Retired (6): Rodriguez, Boghosian, Copping, Diedrick, DiNatale, Jefferies
  • Did Not Sign (10): Lemieux, Reeves, Rash, Smith, Sprengel, Montes, Bush, DiPuglia, Morales, Quinn
  • No longer with the Org (2): Hearn, Schrock

Executive Summary

The 2015 class is holding its own so far, with a number of guys with promising starts and just 6 releases after two full pro seasons.  Watson looks like a stud, Glover looks like a heck of a find, and the upper round picks are at least treading water thus far if not exceeding expectations (Stevenson).

 

Its Moving Day/Giolito day!

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Graduation day has arrived. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

Graduation day has arrived. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

There were a TON of cascading moves announced today, with multiple guys moving up in our system.  Starting at the bottom:

  • GCL: 2016 draftees and RHPs Jacob Howell and Phil Morse got bumped to Auburn after one appearance each in the GCL.
  • Auburn then sent Angelo La Bruna, Robbie Dickey and Randy Encarnacion (who probably should have been higher honestly) to Hagerstown.  This will be Dickey’s third shot at Low-A but he was clearly not touchable in Short-A (8ip, 1H 11Ks in 3 outings so far this year).
  • Hagerstown then bumped up two great hitting prospects Max Schrock, Victor Robles and Trey Lambert to Potomac.  Robles and Schrock were both all-stars and both were flatly out-hitting Low-A.  Lambert has quietly been toiling in the bullpen and had a 27/2 K/BB ratio this year.  I tell you, i’m really starting to get excited about Robles, and I think Schrock is turning into a draft day steal.
  • Potomac then bumped up Drew Ward, Andrew Stevenson, Ryan Brinley and Boone Whiting to AA.   Three of these four were all-stars this year, and Whiting was in AAA all of last year so was wasting his efforts in high-A.  Kudos for Ward to get the promotion and get his prospect career back on track, and even more kudos for Stevenson to earn such a quick promotion to AA.
  • Harrisburg then moved up Chris Bostick, Zack Collier and suddenly dominant starter Reynaldo Lopez to Syracuse (they also put Wander Suero on the TIL list to account for the four promotions).  How about the season Lopez is having?  As noted in the comments, he’s leading AA in K/9 while maintaining a 3+ K/BB ratio.
  • Syracuse’s corresponding moves were mostly bloodshed: they released Scott Sizemore, Tony Campana and RHP Juan Gutierrez to make room.  They also promoted Rafael Martin for at least the day.  Lopez isn’t going to be pitching out of the bullpen though, so I’d imagine that Jared Long will get demoted to fill the vacated spot in AA.

Why is there an extra spot in AA’s rotation?

Because Lucas Giolito got called up!  Mid Monday the announcement came out; he’s making the start on Tuesday.  Get your DVRs ready!  I won’t go into Giolito too much; we all know what he’s supposed to be.  Question is; will he live up to the hype?


(if you want to see all the transactions organized by league, here’s the links I use):

Minor League Transaction announcement links

2015 Season Statistical Review of the 2012 draft class

19 comments

Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

Lucas Giolito still leads the line of the Nats 2012 draft class. Photo unk via federalbaseball.com

(Useless blog information: this is my 900th post!  And we’ve had nearly 7,500 comments on those posts; that’s fantastic.  )

The next in a series: previously we reviewed the 2015 season stats for the 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class, and the 2013 draft class.  Like with the 2013 post, this one was easier to do thanks to having done the 2012 guys back in 2013 time-frame.  Is it worth going back one or two more draft classes at this point?  Maybe not; the 2012 draft class has mostly already been Rule-5 exposed, a good benchmark for prospects to make it or break it in terms of advancement or resignation as “org guy.”  I have gone back one more class to 2011 and that’s it, so one more in this series after this.

Web links to use while reading:

  • Stats are pulled from milb.com and/or fangraphs.com; put the player name into the search bar to get his seasonal stats
  • The MLB Draft Tracker (which I believe is the best draft tracker out there) is the best place to get draft class information.
  • The Big Board and the Draft Tracker are the goto resources for prospects for any Nats fan.
  • Baseball-reference.com’s draft database for Nats 2011 class.
  • My working XLS in Google for all this data (cut-n-pasted at the bottom).
  • TheBaseballCube.com for really obscure stats for players, like college stats for these  upper round 30s guys.

Without further ado:


Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito HS RH Starting pitcher: 7-7, 3.15 ERA across two levels, starting at HighA and moved up to AA.  131/37 K/BB in 117 IP (21 “starts”) with 1.96/3.18 fip, and .352/.341 babip splits between HighA/AA.  A fantastic season for the newly-turned 21-yr old, who dominated HighA before moving up and holding his own in AA for the last two months of the season.  All the pre-season talk about how he was going to have “no innings limits” was bunk; he was kept in XST until the first week of May and routinely skipped starts so as to extend him through the whole season while keeping his innings year-over-year increase just below the magical 20% mark (98 IP in 2014, 117 in 2015).  He’s now routinely named as either the best or the 2nd best (behind LA’s Julio Urias) pitching prospect in all of baseball.  Not much else to say.  I’m guessing he starts 2016 in AA, moves to AAA and may even get tapped once he surpasses the Super-2 deadline as an injury fill-in starter in the majors.  Look for him to get about 140 innings in 2016 all told (that’s 20% bump from his 2015 117 total).  Trending Up.

Round 2(80) Tony Renda, Coll Jr 2B: .267/.333/.340 in Harrisburg with 15/19 K/BB ratio and 13 SBs in a little less than a half a season in AA before he was traded to the Yankees on 6/11/15 for David Carpenter.   Renda had progressed nicely in the system as a defense and speed-first second baseman, but in the immediate seems like he was blocked by Wilmer Difo, perhaps the rising of Chris Bostick and the presence in the majors of three or four different guys who can play an adequate second base.  So the team flipped him for something they needed; reliever depth.

Round 3(111) Brett Mooneyham, Coll Jr LH starting pitcher: was 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for LowA Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15.  Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014.  You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era.  Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller Coll Sr Corner OF: .226/.301/.421 in 59 games with Potomac before voluntarily retiring on 7/10/15.  Despite showing some power (he hit 20 homers in the 2013 season), he never really solved HighA and made way in the Potomac outfield for some rising DSL grads.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, Coll Jr C: Slashed .248/.344/.346 with 30/36 K/BB in 246 ABs with Potomac, which were incremental steps back from his great low-A numbers in 2014.  He missed a good portion of the season with injury (concussion) and is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League to make up for it.  He was starting to get some notice in the organization, appearing in the tail end of top-30 prospect lists.  Despite his step back in offense, Kieboom has taken a huge step forward in terms of his defense, his play-calling and pitch-framing.  Scouting reports on him are glowing in this regard, with most projecting him at worst as a backup catcher in the bigs because of his defensive capability.  I think he starts 2016 in AA with an eye towards getting his bat back on track, and if he keeps producing he could soon be a viable alternative to the current catching tandem in the majors.  Trending up.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, HS OF/CF: Released in May 2014 after two years in the GCL with big K numbers.

Round 7(234) Robert Benincasa, Coll Jr. RH relief pitcher: Just 4 IP for Harrisburg this year until suffering a season-ending injury.  He made the AA bullpen out of spring (which is where he ended the 2014 season) and seemed to be in a decent spot but got almost no playing time.  Minor league relievers generally don’t get a lot of love from prospect hounds, but in a system where an able-bodied RHP who could throw strikes would have been nice to have in August and September, there’s still opportunity for Benincasa going forward.  Trending Steady if he’s healthy, looking at a ST2016 release if not.

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, Coll Jr. SS: slashed just .209/.302/.280 with 87/59 K/BB in 435 ABs between Potomac and Harrisburg.  2 homers, 16 steals.  Perez broke camp with Harrisburg but couldn’t cut it, hitting just .130 in April before getting dumped back to repeat High-A.  In 1300+ career minor league ABs he’s now hitting just .233 and doesn’t seem like he’s long for the organization.  As mentioned in this space before, the Nats drafted a ton of college middle infielders in 2015 and Perez may struggle to keep his slot given what’s expected to rise up.  Trending down.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, Coll Sr. RH relief pitcher: 4-5, 3.56 ERA with 45/15 K/BB in 60ip.  3.71 fip, .291 BABIP in Potomac.  Broke camp as a member of the AA bullpen but got hit and was dumped back to high-A, where he spent most of the season.  This is the third straight  year he’s been in Potomac as a college senior draftee; odds are there won’t be a 4th.  He may break camp with a full season squad in 2016 but may fall victim to a numbers game once the short-season guys start pushing for promotions.  Trending down.

Round 10(324) Craig Manuel, Coll Sr C: slashed just .206/.276/.242 between three levels but mostly with Potomac.  He had just 165 ABs on the year as he served as the backup catcher in High-A.  Its his third straight season of essentially being an “old for the level” backup catcher who has struggled to hit the Mendoza Line since leaving Low-A.  Its hard to read the tea-leaves on catchers since they’re so scarce, so I won’t summarily pass judgement that Manuel’s time is about to come to an end.  He could very well be the backup catcher again in Potomac next year.  He is a local guy (born in Rockville, MD though he went to HS in Florida and college in Texas), so perhaps he enjoys playing in the DC area.  Otherwise, just based on his offensive numbers I have to say he’s Trending Down.

Round 11(354) Brian Rauh, Coll Jr RH starter/reliever: 4-7, 3.39 ERA with 84/24 K/BB ratio in 101 innings (18 starts) across *four* different levels.  2.61/4.95 fip in Potomac/Harrisburg where he spent the most time this year.  Rauh had a nice tour of the system this year, starting in High-A (he was the #2 opening day starter), getting hurt, doing some rehab in the GCL, then working his way back up the chain from Low-A to High-A to AA.  He ended the year in Harrisburg’s rotation, for what its worth.  He didn’t entirely impress at AA but had an incrementally better season in High-A.  My guess is that he starts the 2016 season in the AA rotation, but he has to show he’s worthy in AA.  Trending Steady.

Round 12(384) Carlos Lopez, Coll Sr 1B: Slashed just .138/.265/.241 in 10 games in Hagerstown before being released on 6/30/15.  This was the third straight season that Lopez featured in Hagerstown, having spent the first two months of the season in XST after getting beat out for the 1B job in the spring.  Eventually there just was no more room for Lopez, with uber prospect Jose Marmolejos-Diaz soon taking over at 1B in Hagerstown and slugging 11 homers in a half-season.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, Coll Jr LH reliever: Struggled in two Short-A stints and was released on 3/15/14 prior to the beginning of the 2014 season when he couldn’t break into a full-season bullpen.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, Juco-2 corner OF: Similarly to Waterman above, Poole struggled to hit in two seasons shuttling between  Short-A and GCL, and the Nats released him on 3/14/14 when he wasn’t set to make a full season roster.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF: Didn’t sign.  Attending Division II Grand Canyon University, where he remains today.  He hit a robust .348/.402/.478 for them this season but was not drafted as a draft-eligible junior.  Maybe the Nats take a flier on him in a late round since they love doing re-drafts on late-round HS picks.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, Juco-2 RH starter/reliever: threw just four rehab innings in 2015, spending the entire season on the Potomac Disabled List.  He was coming off a season where he had a 5.96 ERA in High-A and needed 2015 to show he could make the jump.  My guess is that he’ll get another shot at being the Potomac swing-man in 2016 but he may struggle to make the squad, given the huge number of college arms pushing into the system year after year.  Trending Down.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, Coll Sr RH Starting pitcher: 0-2, 5.87 ERA in 3 Potomac starts and then he called it quits, officially retiring on 4/24/15.  Schwartz was *so good* in 2013 for Potomac (11-4, 2.65 ERA) then struggled in AA before getting hurt in 2014 and missing half the season.  I thought the retirement was surprising; maybe his 2014 injury just killed his arm and with it his career.  Too bad; he was looking like a fantastic low-round find.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, Coll Sr RH reliever: Released on 7/3/14 after bouncing around the system for a couple of years.

Round 19: (594) Bryan Lippincott, Coll Sr 1B: Retired ahead of the 2014 season after one decent season in Short-A.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, Coll SR SS/3B: Released May 2013; he was a senior sign who played last season mostly in the GCL, save for a 2 week stretch where he went 1-32 in Short-A.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, Coll Sr C: Released ahead of the 2015 season after struggling to a .221/.299/.324 line in Hagerstown in 2014.  Signed as a MLFA with Los Angeles and bounced around their farm system this year, missing huge chunks of the season with injury.  Backup Catchers can live forever. 

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, Coll Sr RH reliever: Suddenly retired 7/12/13 per his Twitter account.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, Coll Sr LH Starter/Reliever: Posted a 4.29 ERA in ShortA in 2014, then released on 3/20/14.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, Coll SR RH pitcher: released 7/1/13

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP: didn’t sign.  Attending Stanford, where in 2013 he appeared in exactly one game and pitched 2 innings before suffering a season-ending injury.  That injury never got better and he retired from baseball altogether in March of 2015.  Shame.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP: didn’t sign.  Attended UNC, had an excellent college career and was a 4th round pick in 2015 by the Oakland A’s.  He kind of reminds me of our 2015 pick Andrew Stevenson frankly; kind of an odd swing, defense-first speedy outfielder with limited power.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP: didn’t sign.  Attended UCLA and got drafted (like Bolt) in the 4th round of the 2015 draft by the Marlins.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, Coll Sr SS/2B: released May 2013.

Round 29: (894) Leonard “LJ” Hollins, Juco RH reliever: released 7/2/14 after struggling for half a season in Hagerstown.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan Coll Jr LH Starter: 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA.  Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role.  Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip.  He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016.  I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due.  Trending Steady.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden Coll Sr RH reliever: Released Jan 2014 after struggling for two years in Rookie ball as a college senior sign.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, Coll Sr LH reliever: Released Jan 2014 after posting a 6.82 ERA in Short-A in 2013.

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, Coll Sr 2B/3B: Released 3/26/15 after hitting just .207 in Potomac last  year, likely losing out on a numbers game.

Round 34: Jake Jefferies, 2B: didn’t sign.  Attended Cal State Fullerton and subsequently drafted again by the Nats in the 39th round in 2015.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: didn’t sign but Washington picked him in 2013. 

Round 36: Max Ungar, Cdidn’t sign.  Attending Division III Denison, where he did not seem to even be playing.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHPdidn’t sign.  Attended Kansas U for a year, then bounced to McLennan Community College in Waco, TX and and got drafted by the Angels in the 38th round of the 2014 draft.  This is *not* the same Tyler Watson, by the way, that the Nats drafted in the 2015 draft.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHPdidn’t sign.  Pitched the last two years with the Kansas City T-Bones in the independent American Association

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, Cdidn’t sign.  Attended the Marion Military Institute in Alabama, for which I cannot find any current stats.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CFdidn’t sign.  Presumably playing football for U-Conn, as per the Draft Tracker.

 


Trending Summary:

  • Trending Up (2): Giolito, Kieboom
  • Trending Steady (3): Benincasa, Rauh, Orlan
  • Trending Down (4): Perez, Self, Manuel, Pena
  • Did Not Sign in 2012 (11): Smith, Avis, Bolt, Poteet, Jefferies, Bafidis, Ungar, Watson, Messer, Williams, Gutierrez
  • Released/Retired (19): Mooneyham, Miller, Jennings, Lopez, Waterman, Poole, Schwartz, Fischer, Lippincott, Brooks, Chubb, Hudgins, Selsor, Dicharry, Bailey, Hollins, Boyden, Mudron, McQuillan
  • Traded (1): Renda

Executive Summary

Three years onward, there’s just 10 of the 40 names left active somewhere in the minors.  11 never signed and another 19 have been released or retired.  We cashed in Renda on a middle reliever who subsequently got hurt, and this class has one of the best 2 or 3 prospects in the game.  Otherwise … there’s just not much there.  It seems likely that the Nats 2012 class is going to end up producing just two MLB players; a near Ace and possibly a backup Catcher.  Maybe one of the trending steady middle relievers can make a run ala Aaron Barrett.  Otherwise, is this class a disappointment?


 

2015 World Series matchup and Prediction

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Can Batman bring a championship to New  York? Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Can Batman bring a championship to New York? Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Post season predictions so far:

So, neither LCS went as I thought it would and we have the #1 media market in the post-season for the first time since 2009.

Likely Pitching Matchups for Mets-Royals:

Mets-Royals:

  • Game 1: Harvey vs Volquez
  • Game 2: deGrom vs Ventura
  • Game 3: Cueto vs Snydergaard
  • Game 4: Young vs Matz
  • Game 5: likely Volquez vs Harvey again
  • Game 6: likely deGrom vs Ventura again
  • Game 7: likely Snydergaard vs Cueto again

Discussion

The Mets, by virtue of their quite unexpected sweep, get to reset their rotation and opt (somewhat surprisingly) to lead with Matt Harvey instead of Jacob deGrom.  So be it; both guys likely throw twice in the series anyway, so perhaps its a case of getting Harvey a home start in game 5 where he’s likely to be unbeatable.  The Royals had to burn Yordano Ventura in the LCS game 6; he won’t be available until WS game 2, so they seem set to lead off with their 2nd most effective guy Edinson Volquez in the opener.

Man for man, the Mets seem to have an overwhelming pitching advantage here.  Their 1-2-3 starters each are significant throwers, Volquez doesn’t normally scare anyone, and Johnny Cueto had a 36.00 ERA in the LCS.  But the Royals are formidable at the plate: 2nd in the league in BA (by just a point behind the leader), Fewest in the league, by a fairly significant margin, in percentage of strikeouts.  Lastly, as a team they’re the 3rd best squad in the game at hitting fastballs.  So strength meets strength here.

I can see the Royals working the Mets pitchers, who are all young and may be at the tail end of their effectiveness after a season where almost all of them are pitching far longer than they thought.  If the Royals get into the Mets bullpen … are they in trouble?  Meanwhile, the Royals’ starters don’t exactly inspire confidence necessarily, but the Royals bullpen is 2nd to none and with so many off-days there’s no reason to think that their main bullpen arms can’t throw in practically every game.   With the possible exception of one game in NY, I can see the likes of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar throwing each night and shutting down the late innings.  This could make the difference if this team can get a lead and hold on to it in a close game.

Side note: how funny is baseball; Wade Davis was an awful starter … 5.32 ERA for KC in 24 starts in 2013.  and in 2 years out of the pen he’s 17-3 with a 0.97 ERA across 139 IP!!  Read that statline again; it wasn’t a typo.  187/43 K/BB in 139 IP over the last two years as a 7th/8th inning guy.  Hochevar was the same thing: 5.73 ERA as a starter in 2012, then a 1.92 ERA when he got moved to the pen in 2013.  They also have the effective Ryan Madsen (former Phillie) out there, and all of this bullpen success is in spite of losing perhaps their *best* arm in closer Greg Holland to injury earlier this year.  Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned for our Nats in terms of bullpen construction and what it can do for you.

Can the Mets keep up their momentum after such a long layoff?  Will the rest help or hurt their young arms? (probably help frankly).

I have a feeling this is the Royal’s year.  I’m not sure how they do it, but I think the home field advantage and the fact that they’ve “been there before” gives them a bit of an advantage.  The Mets’ arms are not infallible; they’ll give up runs.  Is Daniel Murphy still the second coming of Babe Ruth?  Can Lucas Duda get hot again (when he’s on fire, he’s the best hitter in the league, as my fantasy team this year could attest).

Prediction; I like Kansas City in 7.  This goes against my better judgement, because I always favor the arms, but when the bats can neutralize the arms … go with the team that seems like its destined to win.

PS: in case you were not aware of the local connection … Kansas City’s GM Dayton Moore was involved with the baseball program at George Mason University, serving as an assistant coach from 1990-1994, right around the same time as some of my baseball colleagues were there (my former teammates who played at Mason would have graduated in the 92-94 range).  Now as GM in KC, he’s hired former local player Lonnie Goldberg as his scouting director; we mentioned Goldberg in this space back in Jan 2013 when talking about notable local pro players in my big “All-Virginia team” post, and Goldberg was on those Mason teams in the early 1990s with my former HS teammate Billy Emerson (now the AD at Paul VI in Fairfax).  Small world.