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Minor League Pitching Age Appropriateness for 2013

Yunesky Maya is "Really Old" for AAA; but does it matter? Photo unknown

A recurring statement that you often hear when talking about prospects in the minors is “Age Appropriateness” for the level in which the player is playing. And for good reason; a seasoned minor league player who is playing against younger, weaker competition should have dominant numbers, and when analyzing that player’s performance this should be taken into account. On the flip side, if a guy advances quickly up the minors and is a “youngster” at a high level and performs poorly, he shouldn’t immediately be written off, since he’s likely overmatched and needs time to “grow” into the level.

This topic comes up here often when talking about pitchers and their performances, and I frequently talk about a guy “being old” or “being young” for his level as a way to either discount good performances or explain away poor ones. But what is “Too old for a level?”

I have always used a rule-of-thumb measurement advocated by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com for looking at player ages (I cannot find the original Sickels posting but have seen it attributed to him in several forums). That rule-of-thumb is as follows:

AAA: Typical Age range is 23-24. Age 25 depends. 26+ is old
AA: 22-23. 24 depends. 25+ is old
High-A: 20-22. 23 depends. 24+ is old
Low-A: 19-21. 22 depends. 23+ is old
Short-A: 19-20. 21/22 for draft year guys only. 22+ is old
GCL: 17-19. 20 for draft year guys only. 21+ is old

Now, the caveats to the above are as follows:

1. This is specifically worried about prospect development; clearly we know that a former major leaguer on a minor league free agent contract in AAA is going to look like he’s really “old” for the level when we need understand his presence there differently. A rising prospect who is in AAA at the age of 26 or 27 who hasn’t made it to the majors yet is absolutely “old” and is probably closer to minor league free agency or a release than he is to making the big team.

2. Injuries matter. If a college grad loses a year to TJ surgery and then is sitting in high-A as a 24 year old in his second pro season (think Nathan Karns) you can’t really hold that against him. But if he’s dominant, you can sort of explain why and say that he needs to be moved up.

Luke Erickson (with Brian Oliver’s help) came up with similar looking ranges for the various levels and have made it a link off the main page of NationalsProspects.com. And I talked about this topic a couple of years ago in this space in advance of this same analysis, which I last performed in 2011.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the actual age ranges of the Nationals four full season minor league teams as they stood on 2013’s Opening Day (yes, i’ve had this data in the can for a month and a half and am just getting around to publishing it). I last did this analysis two years ago and it is interesting to see how the age ranges have changed slightly over the years. Here’s 2011’s and 2013’s ranges (click here for a Google spreadsheet of all the detail to check my work and do your own sorting; this link is also in the Links to the right):

2011	AAA	AA	High-A	Low-A
Really Young	25.54 or younger	24.44 or younger	22.65 or younger	21.88 or younger
Young	25.54 – 26.93	24.44 – 25.37	22.65 – 23.83	21.88 – 22.84
Old	26.93 – 28.79	25.37 – 26.65	23.83 – 24.77	22.84 – 23.65
Really Old	28.79 or older	26.65 or older	24.77 or older	23.65 or older

2013	AAA	AA	High-A	Low-A
Really Young	25.91 or younger	24.02 or younger	23.08 or younger	21.69 or younger
Young	25.92 – 27.75	24.02 – 25.17	23.08 – 24.00	21.69 – 22.66
Old	27.75 – 30.35	25.17 – 26.84	24.00 – 24.91	22.66 – 23.39
Really Old	30.35 or older	26.84 or older	24.91 or older	23.39 or older

Data Taxonomy: I’ve taken every pitcher on every team’s roster in each of the four leagues that the Nats have farm teams in (AAA = International, AA = Eastern, High-A = Carolina, Low-A = South Atlantic), put them into a spreadsheet, calculated their ages at the end of this season (9/1/13) and then calculated the four quartile figures in terms of age. I only used pitchers in our leagues as opposed to the entire level across all of baseball thinking that different leagues may have different needs (I’m thinking how the California League and the Pacific Coast League has so many hitters parks and thus the pitchers may linger there longer, skewing the numbers). I also standardized the numbers to be at the end of the season as opposed to the beginning, so that people can talk about a player’s “Age 25 season” for example.

So (using 2013’s AAA as an example): the 25th percentile age is 25.91, the 50th percentile or median age is 27.75, the 75th percentile age is 30.35. For ease of labeling, anyone in the lowest quartile is “Really Young” for that level, 25th-50th is “Young,” 50th-75th is “Old” and anyone in the 75th percentile or higher is labeled “Really Old.” I know some don’t like these labels; if someone just moves past the 50th percentile they go from being “Young” to “Old” in a hurry. But I have to draw the lines somewhere. The fractions are represented as fractions of an entire year of days, so .91 is 91/100ths of 365 days old. This say, as opposed to the way that MLB service time is represented in Years.Days and you see numbers like “1.113.”

Looking at 2011 to 2013’s changes: notice how AAA is getting much older. I think that is due to so many teams giving non-guaranteed MLFA deals to former starters and relievers and stashing them in AAA. Look at our own team: we’ve got guys like Chris Young, Fernando Abad, and JC Romero all in their 30s, skewing the numbers northward. Meanwhile both AA has gotten slightly younger; its median age has dropped slightly.

Here’s a look at the Nationals’ four full season minor league pitching staffs, with the ages listed and the “age appropriate” label given. Note that I did this right at the beginning of the season so I havn’t captured all the moves made in the last month.

AAA Syracuse

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Syracuse (Washington)	Bill Bray	6/5/1983	30.24	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Cole Kimball	8/1/1985	28.08	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Brad Meyers	9/13/1985	27.97	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Matt Torra	6/29/1984	29.17	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Sean West	6/15/1986	27.21	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Jeremy Accardo	12/8/1981	31.73	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Jeff Mandel	4/30/1985	28.34	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Patrick McCoy	8/3/1988	25.08	Really Young
Syracuse (Washington)	J.C. Romero	6/4/1976	37.24	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Michael Crotta	9/25/1984	28.93	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Bobby Bramhall	7/13/1985	28.14	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Tanner Roark	10/5/1986	26.91	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Ryan Tatusko	3/27/1985	28.43	Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Daniel Rosenbaum	10/10/1987	25.89	Really Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Ross Ohlendorf	8/8/1982	31.07	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Fernando Abad	12/17/1985	27.71	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Erik Davis	10/8/1986	26.90	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Yunesky Maya	8/28/1981	32.01	Really Old
Syracuse (Washington)	Ryan Perry	2/13/1987	26.55	Young
Syracuse (Washington)	Chris Young	5/25/1979	34.27	Really Old

Discussion: Our “really old” guys are no surprise; they’re all basically guys on MLFA contracts. Well, and Yunesky Maya, who is just playing out the string at this point. I’m more interested in the “prospects” who are in AAA and their age status, and they mostly look good. Pat McCoy and Danny Rosenbaum both rate as really young for the level. Erik Davis and Ryan Perry both rate as young, even despite Perry’s MLB experience. Otherwise are there even other “prospects” worth analyzing on the Syracuse roster at this point? It seems that most everyone else on this team is a backup starter or a backup loogy.

Oldest Guy in the Int’l League: Miguel Batista with Toronto’s AAA affilliate. Yes our own Mr. Batista from two years ago, still hanging around. He’s yet to get called back up in 2013. Ironically the 2nd oldest guy in AAA is also on Buffalo and is also an ex-Nat: Ramon Ortiz, who has gotten called up to help cover for Toronto’s injury-devistated staff and has a couple of apperances already.

Youngest Guy in the Intl’ League: Giovanni Soto with Cleveland’s AAA affilliate in Columbus. He’s not considered a high-end prospect; he’s just a guy drafted out of HS who has made his way level-by-level and is now 22 in AAA. The 2nd youngest guy in AAA is a more familiar name (Trevor Bauer, also with Cleveland’s team) and the ten youngest pitchers in the league reads like a top-50 Pitching prospects list MLB-wide.

Percentage of Int’l League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 65/210 or 30.9%. This shows just how much AAA is turning into a spare-parts holding league.

AA Harrisburg

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Harrisburg (Washington)	Adam Olbrychowski	9/7/1986	26.98	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Sammy Solis	8/10/1988	25.06	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Rafael Martin	5/16/1984	29.30	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Cameron Selik	8/25/1987	26.02	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Paul Demny	8/3/1989	24.08	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Marcos Frias	12/19/1988	24.70	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Brian Broderick	9/1/1986	27.00	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Trevor Holder	1/8/1987	26.65	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Aaron Barrett	1/2/1988	25.66	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Caleb Clay	2/15/1988	25.54	Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Neil Holland	8/14/1988	25.05	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Rob Wort	2/7/1989	24.56	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Pat Lehman	10/18/1986	26.87	Really Old
Harrisburg (Washington)	Matt Swynenberg	2/16/1989	24.54	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Ian Krol	5/9/1991	22.32	Really Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Blake Treinen	6/30/1988	25.17	Young
Harrisburg (Washington)	Nathan Karns	11/25/1987	25.77	Old

Borrowing from my Monthly check-in on the Minor League staffs, who are we really interested in on this roster? The rotation is Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns. Broderick is really old for the level, but we already knew that (considering he was in the majors as our Rule-5 draftee two years ago). Karns and Clay are “old” for the level but not overly so; the median age is 25.17 and they’re 25.77 and 25.54 respectively. So just a few months older than the median. Not bad considering Karns basically lost two years of development time due to injuries. When the team gets Solis back, he’ll still be young. And most interestingly is Ian Krol who is the 4th youngest guy in the Eastern League but has dominant numbers thus far in 2013. Most of the “really old” guys are relievers who most would agree are “Org guys” and will naturally fall of the roster when their 6-year FA period arrives.

Oldest Guy in the Eastern League: Willie Collazo on Toronto’s AA team in New Hampshire, who had four years in the PCL and likely is only on a AA roster as a procedural location since he started the season on the DL. In fact, most of that team’s roster is among the 20 oldest guys in the league. And as with the AAA team there are ex-Nats all over their rosters. I think we’re seeing the effects of former Nats front-office member Dana Brown now in Toronto helping to shape their minor league roster with guys he’s familiar with.

Youngest Guy in the Eastern League: One Dylan Bundy, Baltimore farm-hand who already has MLB innings and who some thought could have broken camp with the Orioles. Unfortunatley for Bundy, he’s been sidelined with shoulder issues all year. But he’s clearly an up-and-coming talent. The 2nd youngest guy in the Eastern league is also a big-time prospect: Jamison Taillon in Pittsburgh’s org. In fact, when Taillon and his fellow uber-prospect Garrett Cole matriculate to the majors, Pittsburgh is going to suddenly find themselves with one of the league’s elite pitching staffs.

Percentage of Eastern League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 15/182 or 8.24%. Just a handful (Nathan Karns is one, Bundy is one).

High-A Potomac

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Potomac (Washington)	Paul Applebee	5/17/1988	25.29	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Robert Gilliam	11/29/1987	25.76	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Josh Smoker	11/26/1988	24.76	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Matthew Grace	12/14/1988	24.71	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Robbie Ray	10/1/1991	21.92	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Colin Bates	3/10/1988	25.48	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	A.J. Cole	1/5/1992	21.66	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Ben Hawkins	11/4/1989	23.82	Young
Potomac (Washington)	Tyler Herron	8/5/1986	27.07	Really Old
Potomac (Washington)	Gregory Holt	6/19/1989	24.20	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Taylor Jordan	1/17/1989	24.62	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Christian Meza	8/3/1990	23.08	Really Young
Potomac (Washington)	Richie Mirowski	4/30/1989	24.34	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Derek Self	1/14/1990	23.63	Young
Potomac (Washington)	Taylor Hill	3/12/1989	24.47	Old
Potomac (Washington)	Kylin Turnbull	9/12/1989	23.97	Young

Discussion: Our starters at the time of this writing in Potomac are Ray, Jordan, Schwartz, Cole and Hill. Schwartz wasn’t on this roster when I did the cut-n-paste jobs but he’s almost the same identical age as the man he replaced Turnbull. Ray and Cole still rate as “Really Young” (they’re the 7th and 10th youngest guys in the Carolina league) despite both guys repeating this level, a testament to just how young these guys were LAST year. Jordan rates as “old” but with the injury caveat. Hill is four months older than the median age so frankly he’s right on schedule. By and large though this is an older staff, which to me is indicative of the college-heavy pitcher drafts Mike Rizzo has done the last few years. All of our staffs are going to trend old.

Oldest/Youngest Guys in Carolina League: Baltimore’s Frederick affiliate oddly has the two youngest guys (Eduardo Rodriguez, Zachary Davies) and the two oldest guys (Eunchul Choi and Rob Delaney) in the league. I’ve never heard anything about any of these four, so I can’t really add much commentary here

Percentage of Carolina pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: Just 2/115 for 1.74%

Low-A Hagerstown

Team	Name	DOB	Age as of 9/1/13	Age Status
Hagerstown (Washington)	Blake Schwartz	10/9/1989	23.90	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brett Mooneyham	1/24/1990	23.60	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brian Dupra	12/15/1988	24.71	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Brian Rauh	7/23/1991	22.11	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Bryan Harper	12/29/1989	23.67	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	David Fischer	4/10/1990	23.39	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Dean Weaver	5/17/1988	25.29	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Dixon Anderson	7/2/1989	24.17	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Ivan Pineyro	9/29/1991	21.92	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Matt Purke	7/17/1990	23.13	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Pedro Encarnacion	6/26/1991	22.18	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Robert Benincasa	9/5/1990	22.99	Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Ronald Pena	9/19/1991	21.95	Young
Hagerstown (Washington)	Todd Simko	12/5/1988	24.74	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Travis Henke	7/9/1988	25.15	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Will Hudgins	2/12/1990	23.55	Really Old
Hagerstown (Washington)	Wirkin Estevez	3/15/1992	21.46	Really Young

Discussion: as with Potomac, 9 of the 17 guys on this staff are in the “Really Old” category, again a testament to the college-heavy arm drafting of late. Even Brett Mooneyham is now on the old side of the league median age, and he’s just got one full pro season under his belt. The one guy listed as “Really Young” is DSL grad Wirkin Estevez

Oldest Guy in the Sally League: Miami’s low-A affiliate in Greensboro has a guy who is already 28 named Miguel Fermin. He’s in low-A because he’s converting to be a Pitcher after 6 years as a middle infielder.

Youngest Guy in the Sally League: Atlanta’s Lucas Sims, their 1st round draft pick from 2012, who hasn’t even turned 19 as of today (but will have by the end of the season). The 2nd youngest is a lefty prep draftee in Baltimore’s system named Josh Hader who has an interesting story thus far; he was a HS draftee in the 19th round who put up great numbers in short-season last year, broke with the low-A team and has a 1.74 ERA through four starts as of the time of this writing. Sounds like a heck of a draft find for Baltimore so far.

Percentage of Sally League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 1 of 196 pitchers. That one? our very own Matt Purke, who at this point, I’m not afraid to say, looks like he could be a draft bust. Not a major one though mind you; the Nats bribed him out of his college commitment with a 3rd round pick but mid first round money in 2011. But that could end up being a lost 3rd round pick unless Purke can show us something this year. In some ways it was a great gamble to get a guy who was 15-0 as a freshman … and “its just money” right? If this kind of draft money allocation were to have happened in the new system, and the team blew its entire wad of money on one injury-prone guy, we’d be much more concerned.

Written by Todd Boss

May 15th, 2013 at 10:30 am

Monthly Check-in with Minor League Pitching Staffs

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Robbie Ray is having a nice bounce-back 2013 so far. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

In 2011, I managed to do “Rotational Review” posts for both the MLB team and the minor league system for the whole summer. That turned out to be a pretty hefty time commitment, and an endeavor that I couldn’t keep up with. I managed to do all 33 MLB rotation reviews but gave up on the minor league systems around the all-star break. For the entirety of 2012 I never once published much of an in-season look at any of the minor league teams. But I want to stay aware of the minor league pitchers; its basically the reason I started this blog. I wanted to be up on the rising talent, always on the lookout for the next home grown pitching talent.

In 2013, I’ve modified my approach. With the help of daily doses of Luke Erickson’s NationalsProspects.com daily looks, I’m taking the time to give a quick “grade” to each Starter’s outing by looking at the stat-line and the peripherals, in order to gauge how guys are looking. Instead of the previous “good-bad-soso” analysis, I’ve adopted somewhat of a letter grade system, from A+ to F. It isn’t a hard and fast grading system, but generally speaking we start with a run-of-the-mill quality start being graded a C (lets face it, 3 earned runs in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA is average) and then go from there. 6 shutout innings gets somewhere between an A+ and an A- depending on # of hits/walks/Ks, while a complete meltdown (e.g. 7 runs in 3 innings) earns an F. You get the idea.

So, without further ado, here’s the April 2013 look at the starters by team, with grades for outings and some commentary. We’ll do an expanded view of the MLB rotation in the next post. The grades are through 4/30’s outings; the stats may be slightly off since I wrote the bulk of this prior to this morning.

AAA Rotation

Ohlendorf: A,B,D+,D,C-
Young: F,D
Maya: C,D,D,F,D-
Perry: D-,B+,C-,B
Rosenbaum: A-,A,C+,A

Roark: A,D,F->demoted to bullpen,A
Tatusko: D,A-

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

(A quick note explaining the notation; the top 5 pitchers are the current rotation, and guys who have been starters before promotions or demotions, or who have spot starts are noted below the current rotational members. The rotation is listed in current appearance order).

So far, the AAA rotation (which i like to call the “desperately seeking to find an injury backup starter” group) has been mostly a mess this year. Former Major league starters Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Young sport ERAs of 5.46 and 9.00 respectively. Yunesky Maya has been even worse; a 7.45 ERA and a 1.62 whip. Ryan Perry rebounded after a rough debut outing. Tanner Roark was holding Young’s rotation spot and was either excellent or awful; even with two grade-A outings he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. Only Danny Rosenbaum has shown himself worthy of a potential call up; after trying out for the Colorado rotation all spring on a Rule-5 invitation, he was returned and has really thrown well in Syracuse. (side note on Rosenbaum; is he now officially “Daniel?” Sort of how we went from Tom Milone to Tommy? I’ll have to update all my tags in the blog system).

In the Bullpen, Erik Davis, Fernando Abad and JC Romero each sport sub 1.00 ERAs in relief; the rest of the bullpen ranges from mediocre to awful. As noted in a prior post comment, there’s not a lot of relief backup were one of our MLB arms to go down. Davis is showing why the team protected him last November though.

AA Rotation

Broderick: C-,C+,B-,F,B-
Treinen: F,D,A,C,B+
Demny: A-,D,C,C-,F
Clay: D,A,A,C,B+
Karns: F,A,A,B+

Holder: C

Discussion: Harrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

As with Syracuse, there’s a lot of up-and-down so far in Harrisburg. Brian Broderick, who should be in AAA frankly, is barely holding on in AA. He’s yet to have anywhere close to a dominant outing. Blake Treinen (throw-in from the Michael Morse trade) started really slow and has clawed his way back to respectability. Paul Demny has been up and down too. Caleb Clay (a MLFA signing who spent 6 years in the Boston organization) has been surprisingly sucessful as an Eastern League starter; he was relatively UNsuccessful the last two years playing for Boston’s AA affiliate in the same league as a middle reliever. We’ll see if he can keep this up. Lastly Nathan Karns, who in my mind is the “next best Nats starter prospect” to keep an eye on (with apologies to Rosenbaum, AJ Cole and Lucas Giolito) himself rebounded from an awful 2013 debut to put in 3 dominant starts. He now sits with a 3.80 ERA and 29 ks in 21 innings through 5 starts with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

Trevor Holder got a spot start and has been otherwise decent. Ian Krol (the PTBNL in the Morse trade) has been lights out; one run allowed in 13+ innings so far. Michael Broadway, who we picked up as a MLFA just a few days before the season started, has also been good in short sample sizes. Aaron Barrett has 4 saves and 15 ks to just 3 walks in his 11 innings this month. Most of the rest of the Harrisburg bullpen are showing great K/9 rates right now with good numbers thus far.

High-A Rotation

Ray: A-,B,B-,A,A
Jordan: A,B,B+,B-,B-
Cole: D,B,D,D,C+
Schwartz: A,A
Hill: C+,A-,A+,C,C-

Turnbull: D-,D,F->demoted

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Potomac is led by a series of guys who are all on good rolls. Robbie Ray, Taylor Jordan and Taylor Hill each are sporting sub 2.00 ERAs at the end of the month. Hill’s outings are a combination of excellent and mediocre; his stat line looks better than his Start grade line. Kylin Turnbull turned out not to be ready for High-A, but his promoted replacement Blake Schwartz certainly looked like he was ready in his first start (6ip, 3hits, zero runs) and followed up that outing with another dominant outing on 4/30. Only A.J. Cole has really struggled out of this group, a disappointing start so far for the re-captured prospect. Is High-A going to turn out to be his tripping point? The California league is tough on hitters, but the Carolina league isn’t; what is going on with Cole?

In the bullpen, Tyler Herron has an amazing 20 Ks in 10 1/3 innings, while Richie Mirowski has given up just 4 hits in his 10+ innings of work for the month.

Low-A Rotation

Anderson: B+,B+,A,B,A
Turnbull: A
Pineyro: D,D,Inc,C-,A+
RPena: B,F,D,A-,B+
Encarnation: B+,C-,C-

Schwartz: B+,A,B-,A+->promoted
Mooneyham: B-,A,A->dl
Dupra: B,A,B-,D->promoted

Rauh: C,C,B-,D-
Fischer: A+
Hudgins: A,A-

Discussion: Hagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

Hagerstown has a “rotation,” and then they have something akin to a “tandem” pitching plan in place, where the 2nd guy in goes nearly as long as the starter. Hence the larger number of guys who are given grades on their “starts,” when in reality guys in the lower group don’t have any starts. If a guy goes 3-4 innings in a game, they generally have a grade here.

Dixon Anderson is leading the way with 5 excellent outings and a 2.25 era/0.87 whip. Brett Mooneyham had three good starts as well before hitting the D/L. Schwartz proved too dominant in his 4 outings (21 Ks in 14 innnings) and was promoted; Dupra’s line earned him a promotion as well. Pedro Encarnation is finally putting it together outside of short-season. Turnbull looked very dominant in his low-A return as expected. David Fischer and Wil Hudgins longer outings may have been good, but their other outings have drug down their stat lines. DSL grad Pineyro is somewhat holding his own in full-season ball, with up and down nights that hopefully will even out. Lastly Ronald Pena is living up to his “sleeper” potential; the 16th round 2012 draft pick has picked up right where he left off in full-season ball.

Written by Todd Boss

May 1st, 2013 at 9:39 am

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

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After finishing the evaluation of all 6 minor league pitching staffs, plus finally finishing (and posting yesterday) the MLB season review, here’s an entirely too-early projection of what the staffs and rotations may look like in 2013. This post assumes for the time being that all major and minor league FAs will opt out and we’ll be looking to fill spots. In these cases I’ll mark FAs to be as needed, though we very well may acquire these players in trade.

Note: some of these projections are slightly different from the original reviews posted in the per-level links, to account for moves, performances and roster moves that have already happened or seem set to happen this off-season. I’ve also made some slight adjustments in order to make the rotations and bullpens work at each level.

(notations: FA = free agent, MLFA == Minor League Free Agent)

Staff Review links: MLB is here, AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here, Low-A is here, Short-A is here, GCL is here.

MLB Rotation: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler, FA or other acquisition
MLB Bullpen: Clippard, Storen, Mattheus, Stammen, Garcia, a FA left-hander (possibly Burnett), a FA long-man (possibly Gorzelanny).
MLB notables Out of Organization: Jackson, Burnett, Gonzalez, Lannan, Wang

MLB Narrative: 4/5ths of the rotation are no-brainers. The 5th starter is the question mark for 2013. Do we re-sign Jackson and pay him more as a 5th starter than our big 3 guys? It doesn’t seem so after the team declined to give him a Qualifying Offer. Do we trade from depth (RH relief, middle infield) and find a 5th starter that way? Do we find a 5th starter from within? Meanwhile the bullpen is now full of hard throwing righties, but we could lose all 3 of our lefties. We may need to work the phones to retain these guys, or else we’re on the FA market. I think (despite my discussion about converting Garcia to a 5th starter) that he’ll remain in the bullpen and may bump Henry Rodriguez out of a job. One of our two closer-quality guys (Clippard and Storen) could be moved, cashing in on their value, which could open up a spot for a FA acquisition or a promotion from AAA.

Lots to be decided this off-season for Mike Rizzo, and this hasn’t even mentioned the dominos that will fall if/when the team makes a contract decision on Adam LaRoche.

AAA Rotation: Roark, Maya, Broderick, Meyers, Perry
AAA Bullpen: Tatusko (swingman), Arneson (swingman), Severino (loogy), Davis, Lehman, Nelo (closer), Martin, Mandel

AAA Narrative: We have a lot of long-serving minor leaguers here; as it stands now only a few of them are even 40-man roster guys (Maya, Perry, Garcia). The modern AAA roster construction is one of “spare parts” and prospects; do we have enough prospects to cover for injuries at the MLB level? Which one of these AAA starters would Nats fans feel comfortable filling in were one of our starters to go down with injury? Perhaps the Nats need to work on some starter depth via trade. Brad Meyers was just returned from the Yankees after a season-long DL stint after being Rule-5 drafted, and seems likely to slot right back into the AAA rotation when he’s healthy. Perry seems set to get a 4th option and should slot in here, looking to convert back to being a starter. Broderick is a former Rule-5 pick and was claimed from St. Louis, who dumped him late last season. I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4-A starter, but the organization seems to like him.

AA Rotation: Rosenbaum, Holder, Gilliam, Karns, Grace, Demny (swingman?) or MLFA? Solis if he’s healthy?
AA Bullpen: Frias, McCoy, Selik (maybe high-A again), Holland (setup), Wort (closer), VanAllen (loogy), Demmin (maybe high-A again), an org arm or two to fill in.

AA narrative: We have a couple of interesting candidates in the AA rotation to start, but what may be more interesting is to see whether the likes of Gilliam and Demny hold onto their spots with the talent ready to rise up out of high-A. Meanwhile, the bullpen has some interesting arms to keep an eye on. I forgot to mention Solis in the AA write-up but remembered him here. Two big questions for me in this AA rotation for 2013: 1) is Rosenbaum for real or is he going to sputter out before reaching MLB potential? And, 2) Is Nathan Karns ready to make the leap? I think Karns can quickly put his name in the mix to get promoted to AAA based on his performance in 2012.

High-A Rotation: Swynenberg, Ray, Meyer (maybe AA?), Schwartz (maybe low-A), Rauh (maybe low-A)
High-A Bullpen Competition: Barrett (maybe AA) , Testa, Smoker (loogy), Hill, Meza (perhaps a starter?), Holt, Hawkins, Bates, Mirowski
High-A bullpen Release candidates: Olbrychowski, McCatty, Applebee

High-A narrative: there’s too many arms for too few slots right now in all three of the A-levels. There’s a ton of release candidates, and some guys who could be higher or lower. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the organizational meetings where all this evaluation is done. Meyer dominated High-A last year; could he start in AA? Barrett (by virtue of his AFL appearance) may also be AA material.

The same goes for the Low-A team below: I’ve got 5 logical rotation candidates, another 4 guys who make sense to be in the low-A rotation, and a slew of guys who seem to have earned their way to the low-A bullpen. But there’s only 7 slots to go around.

Low-A Rotation: Turnbull, Jordan, Purke (if healthy), Monar, Mooneyham
Low-A Rotation Competitors: Hansen, Lee (loogy if not), Encarnation, McGeary (if finally healthy)
Low-A Bullpen Competition: Anderson, Estevez, Dupra, McKenzie, Henke, Davis, Boyden, Benincasa, Hudgins, Dicherry, Mudron

We acknowledge the folly of trying to predict short-season staffs which will mostly be populated with 2013 draftees, especially under the new CBA that shortens negotiation times, making it more likely college seniors are drafted (who sign quickly with zero leverage) and get playing. That being said, there will definitely be guys who stay in extended spring training for a couple months and then get placed on these rosters along with new draftees. Here’s some guesses based on 2012 performances; all blank spots filled by 2013 draftees or by some of the guys who drop down from low-A.

Short-A Rotation: Baez, Pineyro
Short-A Bullpen: Smith (if not released), Fischer, Medina, Pena, Mendez

GCL blank spots filled by younger 2013 draftees (HS, Juco and college juniors/seniors from smaller schools) and by rising DSL grads.

GCL Rotation: Mieses (if not released), Barrientos, Vasquez
GCL Bullpen: Heredes

Written by Todd Boss

November 6th, 2012 at 9:16 am

Posted in Majors Pitching, Minor League Pitching

Tagged with aaron barrett, adalberto mieses, adam laroche, adam olbrychowski, alex meyer, atahualpa severino, ben hawkins, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brett mooneyham, brian broderick, brian dupra, brian rauh, cameron selik, christian garcia, christian meza, christopher mckenzie, cody davis, colin bates, corey vanallen, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, dixon anderson, drew storen, edwin jackson, erik arneson, erik davis, gilberto mendez, gio gonzalez, gregory baez, gregory holt, hector nelo, henry rodriguez, inocencio heredes, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joe testa, joel barrientos, jordan zimmermann, josh smoker, kevin dicherry, kylin turnbull, marcos frias, matt swyndenberg, matthew grace, matthew purke, michael boyden, mike mudron, mike rizzo, nathan karns, neil holland, nicholas lee, pat lehman, pat mccoy, paul applebee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, rafael martin, richie mirowski, rob wort, robbie ray, robert benincasa, robert gilliam, ronald pena, ross detwiler, ryan demmin, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan tatusko, sammy solis, shane mccatty, silvio medina, stephen strasburg, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, travis henke, trevor holder, tyler clippard, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

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Yunesky Maya led the Nats minor league starters for the 2nd straight summer. Photo Jim McGregor/Syracuse Chiefs via milb.com

I stumbled across this post, titled “Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012,” posted March 1st 2012, while looking for something else last week. And I thought to myself, hey now that I’ve finished the reviews of the minor league teams, lets see how I did predicting the rotations at the beginning of the season! I’ve also culled through the post-2011 season review posts for some preliminary guesses at the time.

(Note: I linked to NationalsProspects.com Luke Erickson’s guesses in the above link for another perspective in the 2012 spring training).

Players are bolded the first time they’re mentioned, but not afterwards.

AAA:

Sept 11 Guess: Maya, Milone, Stammen, Meyers, Peacock, Martis
Mar 12 Guess: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann
Opening Day Rotation: Atkins, Roark, Maya, Lannan and Duke
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Maya, Roark, Duke, Lannan, Atkins

What happened? My prediction was way, way off; only Maya was the constant, but we knew that the second he proved he couldn’t get out MLB hitters last fall. The team traded two of its probable AAA starters (Peacock and Milone), lost a third to the Rule-5 draft (Meyers, who honestly we probably will get back once the Yankees are done screwing around with him) and a 4th to Minor League Free Agency (Martis). Meanwhile, who knew that Lannan wasn’t going to make the MLB opening day roster? Then, the team released Buschmann before he appeared in a game (he played 2012 in the Tampa Bay organization). Ballard was a starter, just not in AAA. Stammen, in a surprise to me, made the conversion from AAA starter in 2011 to MLB bullpen guy and had a great year. Lastly, instead of using more internal options like Roark the team signed two MLFAs in Duke and Atkins. I suppose I could have guessed that the team would go with Roark before Arneson as a starter (given Arneson’s rubber-armed handling in 2011). It just goes to show how much the creation of AAA teams has changed over the years.

AA:

Sept 11 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Solis
Mar 12 Guess: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Olbrychowski, Gilliam
Opening Day Rotation: Gilliam, Demny, Mandel, Rosenbaum and Ballard
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Rosenbaum, Demny, Gilliam, Perry, Ballard/Pucetas

We were a bit closer here, getting 3 of the 5 guesses right. Sammy Solis would absolutely have been in this rotation if not for his Tommy John surgery; we’ll cross our fingers for him to return in 2013. When Solis went out, org-arm Mandel filled in. Evan Bronson is still with the organization on Milb.com but never threw an inning in 2012 and isn’t on the Big Board. I can’t find a single bit of google information indicating if he’s still with the team or not. Weird. Meanwhile I had just guessed too high for Olbrychowski; he spent most of 2012 as a starter in Potomac. Nobody could have guessed that we’d have traded Balester for Perry, that Perry would have stunk as a reliever, and then would show up in AA remaking himself as a starter. Ballard and Pucetas were MLFA pickups designed to fill holes in the system, though based on his prior experience I had Ballard pegged in the AAA rotation.

High-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill, Karns
Mar 12 Guess: Selik, Grace, Purke, Meyer, Hill
Opening Day Rotation: Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Grace, Ray, Swynenberg, Olbrychowski, Karns

I was far off here as well; Purke got hurt, Meyer, Hill and Karns started lower than I would have guessed and Selik was converted to a reliever. I was right only on Grace (thought technically I thought Olbrychowski would be a starter, just not back in Potomac). Winters was a MLFA (the fifth such MLFA who has appeared as a primary starter in our top three levels; is this a statement of some sort?). As we’ll see in a moment, I was right about Hansen, just wrong about the level. Lastly Swynenberg came out of nowhere; he was effective in middle-relief in low-A; who knew he’d win a spot in the high-A rotation? I thought Ray would have done a few turns in low-A; instead he debuted in Potomac and struggled to make the jump. I lost faith in Karns between September 2011 and March 2012; as it turned out he was one of the 5 top starters (in terms of appearances) for the year while putting in a career season.

Low-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Hansen, Jordan, Cole, Ray, Estevez, McGeary
Mar 12 Guess: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns
Opening Day Rotation: Estevez, Dupra/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull/Hill, McKenzie
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Hill, Meyer, Turnbull, Estevez, Hansen

What happened? The team traded Cole. Jordan was injured more than we were led to believe in late 2011 (he had Tommy John surgery after the season was over). I predicted Hansen, Ray, Hill, Estevez, Meyers and Dupra would be starters, just got the levels wrong. My Mar 12 guesses were somewhat accurate in that we got Turnbull and Karns right. McGeary struggled through yet another injury filled season and may be nearing the end of his baseball career. I thought Estevez was getting squeezed out with all these high-profile starters rising up. I figured McKenzie had lost his starting shot; clearly his performance in 2012 should end his chances at getting another 2013 starting shot. I guess the lesson here is that it can be awful difficult to determine the difference between a High-, Low- and Short-A guy.

Short-A:

Sept 11 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks.
Mar 12 Guess: Manny Rodriguez, Dupra, Baez and two draft picks
Opening Day Rotation: Jordan/Medina, Baez, Monar, Encarnation, and Smith
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Encarnation, Monar, Lee, Mooneyham, Fischer/Pineyro

My guess of 3 returners and 2 draft picks wasn’t entirely accurate; there wasn’t a single 2012 draft pick in the 2012 opening day rotation. We got Baez pegged correctly but the rest of the predictions were off. Manny Rodriguez, a converted infielder, spent the whole year on the 60-day DL. Dupra was in high-A. Meanwhile, a couple of guys dropping down from Low-A (Jordan, Encarnation) comprised the rotation at the beginning of the season. Monar was a repeater from 2011 who didn’t get a ton of innings last year. Eventually some 2012 draftees (Mooneyham, Fischer and others) got starts as expected, and helped drive Auburn to the playoffs.

GCL:

Sept 11 Guess: Mieses, King, Encarnation, Medina, Marcelino
Mar 12 Guess: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.
Opening Day Rotation: Mieses, Barrientos, Pineyro, Vasquez, and Schwarz
5 guys with the most starts in 2012: Vasquez, Mieses, Hudgins, Selsor, Pineyro/Schwartz

Finally we got one right (well, right from Mar 12 guess anyway). The GCL rotation was Mieses, 3 DSL graduates and one 2012 draftee. Eventually more 2012 draftees (Hudgins, Selsor and others) consumed most of the rest of the starts. King disappeared from the rosters; he’s still in the organization but was never assigned this season. Injured? Disciplinary issues? There seems to be so much inconsistency in the DSL graduates that it almost isn’t worth tracking them until they appear in a higher level. Honestly, this is why I don’t really follow the Dominican Summer League teams either.

Phew; that’s a lot of Nats minor league starters. As it showed, its really, really difficult to predict this stuff from a computer in Northern Virginia, scouting the stat lines. But its really fun, so we’ll continue to do it .

Written by Todd Boss

September 21st, 2012 at 10:03 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching

Tagged with adalberto mieses, adam olbrychowski, aj cole, alex meyer, anthony marcelino, blake monar, blake schwarz, bobby hansen, brad meyers, brad peacock, brandon king, brett mooneyham, brian dupra, cameron selik, casey selsor, christopher mckenzie, collin balester, craig stammen, danny rosenbaum, daury vasquez, david fischer, erik arneson, evan bronson, gregory baez, ivan pineyro, jack mcgeary, jason smith, jeff mandel, joel barrientos, john lannan, kevin pucetas, kyle winters, kylin turnbull, luke erickson, manny rodriguez, matt swyndenberg, matthew buschmann, matthew grace, matthew purke, mike ballard, mitch atkins, nathan karns, nicholas lee, paul demny, pedro encarnation, robbie ray, robert gilliam, ryan perry, sammy solis, shairon martis, silvio medina, tanner roark, taylor hill, taylor jordan, tommy milone, wil hudgins, wirkin estevez, yunesky maya, zach duke

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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Closer Aaron Barrett was one of the best stories of the year for Hagerstown's pitching staff. Photo unknown via thephilosophersstone2011.blogspot.com
Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year.

Here’s the Low-A version of the 2012 season pitching staff review. I’m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here, AA is here, High-A is here. As with the other reviews, we’ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers. Rehab appearances are generally not mentioned. The lower you get in the minors, the harder it is to really pass judgement on a player’s real capabilities or career outlook, so take some of these evaluations with a grain of salt.

The rotations in the lower minor leagues are also not nearly as clean as in the upper-levels. Lots of times the “starter” is slated to go as many innings as the “reliever,” a way to get two starter candidates longer stretches of innings. We’ll try to take that into consideration as we move forward.

Hagerstown starters. The rotation started the season with Estevez, Dupra/Karns, Meyer, Turnbull/Hill, and McKenzie. No less than 18 different guys started a game for Hagerstown this year (two of them on rehab assignments). Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.

Wirkin Estevez was 5-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 12 low-A starts in the early and later parts of the season; he missed two full months with an unspecified injury. He was no better after returning than before. He was frequently victimized by the long ball, giving up 6 in 60 innings. Outlook for next season: he’s young (turned 20 in March, if you trust D.R. birthdays) and he was effective last year in short-A. He returns to low-A, but is dumped to the bullpen in the face of a glut of competition for rotation spots.
Brian Dupra got absolutely lit up in 11 appearances (8 starts) in April and May before suffering a season-ending injury 5/31. Line on the season: 3-4 with a 7.17 era in 37 2/3 innings. Outlook for next season: bullpen arm in Low-A.
Nathan Karns threw 44 outstanding innings in low-A before he was deservedly promoted to Potomac. We discussed him at length there. Outlook for next season: (from high-A post): AA rotation.
Alex Meyer was 7-4 in 18 starts for Hagerstown before getting promoted to Potomac. We discussed him at length there. Outlook for next season: (from High-A post): High-A rotation again with an eye towards quick promotion to AA.
Kylin Turnbull got his first pro innings in 2012, being a relatively high draft pick (4th rounder) in 2011. The 21-yr old lefty gave Hagerstown 89 mediocre innings, going 4-5 with a 5.16 ERA. Not bad for a first full season. He gave up a lot of hits though, and his whip was 1.51. That’s lots of base-runners turning into lots of runs. He was sent down mid-season to the rookie league to work on “mechanics,” returning the last day of the season (for some reason) to put in one relief appearance. Outlook for next season: Repeating low-A (in the rotation) looking for improvement.
Taylor Hill was the Hagerstown workhorse, leading the staff in innings pitched with 124. He went 10-6 with a 4.92 era on the year. Outlook for next season: I worry for the 2011 6th round college senior; unless he can be a bit more dominant on the mound, he’s not long for pro baseball. He is relatively young for a college grad; he’ll be entering his 3rd pro season and turning 24 in March. I’d guess he’ll get moved to the high-A bullpen in 2013 as a nod to his age/experience.
Chris McKenzie had his third straight rough year in the starting rotation, failing to improve on last year’s low-a showing. Final stats: 2-3 with an ugly 8.64 ERA in 26 appearances and 8 starts. Outlook for next season: the organization can’t give him a rotation spot again can they? Low-A bullpen.
Bobby Hanson fared little better in low-A than he did in high-A, getting demoted mid-season. After 11 starts and a 4.55 ERA he hit the DL, where he’s stayed the rest of the season. Outlook for next season: As pointed out in the High-A post, he’s young but he’s entering his 6th pro season and has yet to really master low-A. He’s a big lefty though (6′6″, 235lbs) so the team probably salivates at his potential. He’s just not as dominant as he needs to be. I’d guess he’s getting another shot at the low-A rotation in 2013. But it may be his last shot.
Taylor Jordan was a favorite of mine after his stellar 2011 season in low-A. Unfortunately he had to get Tommy John Surgery (done in mid September 2011), so 2012 is a come-back/rehab year. He seemed to be back really, really early though; he got his first 2012 start 9 months after surgery. On the year: 3-7 with a 5.13 ERA in 15 starts and 54 1/3 innings. You can’t beat that for a rehab year. Outlook for next season: leading the low-A rotation with an eye towards a quick high-A promotion in 2013.
Brian Rauh, the first 2012 draft pick mentioned in this series (and as it turned out one of only two 2012 draft picks to make it as high as low-A). Rauh got 8 starts with Hagerstown in August after getting a quick bump up from short-A. Results were ok: he was 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA in 8 games as a starter. He only really had one bad start (his last) and would have had better season stats otherwise. His K/9 rates were good and he may be an excellent find in the draft (he was an amazing 30-1 during his college career at Division III Chapman; check out his mini bio at milb.com). Outlook for next season: low-A rotation.
Blake Schwartz, The 2nd, and last 2012 draftee pitcher to make it to Low-A this year was pretty good upon promotion to Hagerstown, going 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 7 late season starts. The Nats have had some great luck with small-college pitchers (see Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler) and hope to continue with the likes of Rauh and Schwartz (from Oklahoma City University, an NAIA school). Outlook for next season: high-A rotation, based on his status as a college senior grad.
Matthew Purke, as most Nats fans know, had three wild appearances in May before getting shut down on the season with continuing shoulder issues. Outlook for next season: get healthy, try low-A rotation again.
Dixon Anderson, coming back from an injury that cost him all of 2011, looked good in a too-small-of-a-sample size of innings (26 between GCL and low-A). He’s a big right-hander with good k/9 rates who was a little wild in low-A. I wonder if he features more as an eventual reliever. Outlook for next season: competing for low-A rotation, dropping to bullpen.

Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Christian Meza had 36 appearances, 3 spot starts and a good 2.97 era in 88 low-A innings on the year. A tall lefty with excellent K/9 rates, he excelled in 3 spot starts but remained mostly a middle-to-late innings reliever. Outlook for next season: I’d try to feature him as a starter honestly, but i’d guess he ends up in the high-A bullpen.
- Pedro Encarnation got a few innings in low-A after moving up from Short-A. Outlook for next season: see short-A write-up.
- Jason Smith got a call-up/spot start mid-season and got shelled. Outlook for next season: see short-A write-up.

Hagerstown Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. These are done in order by IP for any reliever who didn’t get at least one start.

Gregory Holt gave the Suns 78 workman-like innings in 41 games, finishing the year with an era of 4.12. Unfortunately it seems that result was rather lucky; his FIP was 5.18, a full point higher. He’ll have to improve to stay in the organization. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Ben Hawkins continues to be a late-round steal (he was a 36th round draft pick in 2011 out of baseball juggernaut West Florida) for the team, putting up a 3.55 ERA in 58 1/3 innings over 30 appearances, giving the team nearly a k/inning as a lefty. He continues on a great 2011 as well. He’s more than just a loogy, routinely putting in 2-3 innings per outing. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Colin Bates closed a few games, was effective for most of the season (2.79 era in 51 2/3 relief innings) and has given the organization no reason not to move him up the chain. He’s a little under-sized (6′1″, 175lb) and that may have him flying under the radar as a prospect. Outlook for next season: high-A bullpen.
Aaron Barrett got promoted to high-A after tearing through Low-A with 52 Ks in 34 innings. See the high-A write-up for more. Outlook for next season: (as copied from high-A writeup) AA bullpen.
Richie Mirowski is another feather in the southwestern Nats draft staff’s hats; a 45th round pick in 2011 out of Oklahoma Baptist University was neat and effective upon reaching low-A this year. He had a 2.00 era in 27 relief innings. He had a few more walks than you’d like to see, but had over a K/inning to go with it. 45th round picks are usually throw-away picks on high schoolers who you don’t expect to sign; they’re not generally guys who put in sub 3.00 eras in successive seasons. Outlook for next season: move him up; high-A bullpen

Other Relievers who appeared in Low-A (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: another season in the low minors, struggling to make an impact.
- Wilson Eusebio was inexplicably promoted after putting up a 6.78 ERA in 28 innings.
- Bobby Lucas, GWU product and local kid, wasn’t good this year; a 7.67 ERA in 29 innings. He was also incredibly wild; 36/31 k/bb in those 29 innings.
- Alex Kreis had a 5.88 era in 26 innings for Hagerstown. Nearly a 2.00 whip; he needs to improve.
- Todd Simko, 2011 21st rounder, got 19 mostly wild innings in before going down with a season-ending injury in May.
- Leonard Hollins had a mostly nondescript 2012 season; he was a 29th rounder out of Juco in his first pro season. He needs to show more swing-and-miss (only 8 Ks in 18 innings) capability to move up in this organization.
- Travis Henke got lit up in 3 low-A innings and got dumped back to short-A.

Summary

Hagerstown had a mixed bag of starters early (some good, some bad), but got help down the stretch from 2012’s draft class. It wasn’t enough for them in the end; losing out in the playoffs.

Written by Todd Boss

September 17th, 2012 at 10:06 am

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

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Nathan Karns parlayed his first healthy pro season into an Organizational POTY award. Photo Potomac Nationals official via milb.com
Click here for the 2011 version of this post, for a look at how things were last year.

Here’s the High-A version of the 2012 season pitching staff review. I’m going down the line from top to bottom; AAA is here, AA is here. As with the other reviews, we’ll look at the main rotation, the substitute and spot starters, then focus on key relievers. Rehab appearances are generally not mentioned.

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Winters, Hansen, Olbrychowski, Grace and Swynenberg. Lets see how the original rotation and other primary starters fared.

Kyle Winters, an off season minor league free agent pickup, was Potomac’s opening day starter. But he wasn’t long for the rotation; he got shelled en-route to posting a 7.02 era in 8 starts before getting released. It does not seem like anyone else picked him up (except perhaps in Indy ball). Lets be honest; it is never a good sign to have minor league free agents playing significant roles on high-A ball clubs. Outlook for next season: in another organization or out of baseball.
High-A proved to be too much for Bobby Hansen, who put up a 5.85 ERA in 6 starts (9 total appearances) before being moved back to Low-A, where he spent 2011. He’s young; he has yet to turn 23, so even low-A isn’t the worst place for him. But he’ll be entering his 6th pro season in 2013 and you’d like to see him throw more than 50 innings in a season. Outlook for next season: see the Low-A post.
Adam Olbrychowski wasn’t able to build on his 2011 season in High-A, regressing badly and posting a 6.24 ERA in 26 appearances (16 starts). He lost his rotation spot halfway through the season and didn’t fare well out of the pen. This trade didn’t work out for either team really (the Nats traded Justin Maxwell to the Yankees for Olbrychowski in January 2011 and released him themselves; he now plays for Houston). Outlook for next season: either one last shot in the High-A bullpen or released.
Matthew Grace put in his third year as a full-time starter with the Organization, and he continues to be hit or miss. On the season he posted a 9-12 record with a 4.84 ERA and 83/48 k/bb ratio in 141 1/3 innings, but you never know what you’re getting with him. His final start of the season featured 8 shutout innings, but his first start in August was a 3-inning 9 hit meltdown. Outlook for next season: the organization stuck with him after a 5.17 ERA in a full season of low-A; no reason to think they won’t continue to stick with him in 2013. AA rotation, perhaps re-peating High-A if the numbers don’t work out.
Matt Swynenberg was in and out of the rotation, not really excelling as either a starter or a reliever on the year. 7-5, 4.92 ERA on the season. He was a bit unlucky on the season; he had a .343 BABIP and his FIP was a bit lower than his ERA. Outlook for next season: he’s still young (turned 23 in February) and has plenty of time to improve. And, given that he was a 28th round draft pick, anything he contributes is absolute gravy to the organization). Look for him to be leading the High-A rotation in 2013 with an eye for mid-season promotion.
Robbie Ray was last year’s sensation, an 19-yr old dominating in Low-A. He clearly suffered from a sophomore slump, going 4-12 with a 6.56 ERA in 22 “starts” (I put that in quotes since he had one 5-inning “relief” appearance in June). What happened? His K’s were down, Walks up, HRs up, BABIP unlucky, and his FIP was a full point and a half lower than his ERA. So it wasn’t as bad as it looked. Plus, he’s only 20 in high-A, where a lot of college guys take a year and a half to get to. I’m not worried at all; i’ll bet he’s back to being dominant in 2013 repeating the level. Outlook for next season: back in the High-A rotation.
Nathan Karns finally got a healthy full season of pitching under his belt after getting paid 3rd round money as a 12th round draft pick in the high-spending 2009 draft, and the organization finally got a look at what Karns can do: A 2.17 ERA in 24 appearances (18 starts) across 116 innings between low- and high-A. This was no fluke either; all his advanced stats support his performance and give reason to believe he’ll continue to develop. He was named the Organization’s Pitcher of the Year for 2012, usually a great indicator of future success for this team. He’s a big guy with a great pitching frame (6′5″, 230lbs) and an even better mustache (see his profile picture at milb.com). I think Karns may be our best or 2nd best starter prospect right now. A ight concern may be his hitting the DL in mid-August after a couple of mediocre outings; I’d guess that he’s reached an innings limit for the season and was shutdown with an unspecified injury. This may also explain why he’s not appearing in the AFL after such a season. Outlook for next season: AA rotation.
Trevor Holder finally got promoted past high-A after repeating the league for the 4th time in 2012. He got 10 starts in Potomac before being moved up mid-season. He was pretty good in his 9 starts in High-A this year: 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA. Outlook for next season: (from the AA post): AA Rotation.
Alex Meyer excelled in 7 late-season starts in Potomac after throwing 90 innings in low-A to start the year. Final high-A stats: 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 39 innings. His ancillary numbers declined slightly moving from low- to high-A (as one would expect), but his core capabilities seem to be the same. He’s a HUGE guy (6′9″) and the downward plane on his fastball makes it incredibly difficult to hit in the air (only 6 homers allowed in 139IP). A lot of pundits (myself included) were critical of Meyer starting in low-A as such an advanced draft prospect, but his numbers in high-A (a more legitimate evaluation of his skills age- and experience-wise) give great hope. The organization has had him working on mechanics all year, worried that such a big guy was going to struggle to repeat his delivery (as highlighted by this Baseball America article, subscribers only sorry). After being basically a 2-pitch guy in college, Meyer has reportedly added a 2-seam fastball that he throws at the same velocity as his 4-seamer to go with an 87-mph change-up. Suddenly he’s a 4-pitch guy (2 plus-plus, one plus and one fringe) and that gives him a great chance of remaining a starter. A 6′9″ throwing upper 90s has to look like 100+ to a hitter based on his release point, and despite most scouts opinion that he’d make a fantastic shut-down closer with his 2 plus-plus pitches, he has more value to the team as a starter. Outlook for next season: I think he starts in High-A rotation again with an eye towards quick promotion to AA.
Robert Gilliam underperformed in AA, got demoted to high-A and gave Potomac 7 up-and-down starts down the stretch. Final numbers in Potomac: 1-2, 4.25 ERA in 36ip. Outlook for next season: (cut-n-pasted from AA post): The team likes him as a starter; i’m guessing they give him another whirl in the AA rotation with Meyer sitting in High-A waiting in the wings.
Taylor Hill got three late-season starts after toiling all year in Hagerstown. Outlook for next season: see Low-A post.

Other guys who got spot starts here and there (non-rehab):
- Ryan Demmin served as the mop-up/swing man for the team, giving them a K/9 reliever with a 4.57 ERA on the season. He got a couple of spot starts but only went 7 innings between the two. He gives up a lot of hits but doesn’t walk guys. He could continue to be a useful middle reliever. Outlook for next season: Likely the high-A bullpen again, though he could slot up to AA if the numbers don’t work out.
- Paul Applebee, as with Demmin, was used mostly as a long man and got a spot start before going down with injury in June. He wasn’t great when he did pitch (5.00 era in 36ip), but he’s been useful in the organization for a while. Outlook for next season: High-A mop-up guy again, not knowing how severe his arm injury is.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps at the end of the season. They used an awful lot of them.

Neil Holland continued an excellent string of seasons for this organization since being drafted in 2010. He was close to unhittable in 2012: a 1.64 era in 60 innings and a sub 1.00 whip. That’s fantastic. Outlook for next season: see if he can repeat his performance in AA.
Rob Wort had, frankly, a pretty amazing season as Potomac’s closer. He had an era of 2.38 over 56 2/3 innings, and had 13 saves. That’s not why he was amazing; He had 95 Ks in those same 56 2/3 innings. That is a 15.09 K/9 rate!! For a 30-th round draft pick (i.e., a guy who was never really expected to make it out of rookie camp), that’s incredible. Outlook for next season: closer in AA.
Joe Testa couldn’t repeat his excellent 2011 Potomac results, putting up an ugly 5.17 era in 38 IP. The ugly part? A perfect 1-1 ratio of walks to strikeouts on the year (31 walks, 31 Ks). He turning 27 in December and is entering his 6th minor league season; I think its safe to say 2013 is a “show me” year for Testa. Outlook for next season: hard to see him moved up to AA; I see him repeating in the High-A bullpen, perhaps a pure Loogy.
Cameron Selik looked to have “figured out” the bullpen after being a starter for most of 2011, and had a fantastic 34/3 k/bb ratio in 22 high-A innings. He earned a promotion, but begged out of his AA debut with what probably was a torn Lat. He didn’t pitch again after June 5th. A shame, since it would have been nice to see how he fared upon reaching AA. Outlook for next season: I’d start him in the High-A bullpen again to make sure he’s healthy, then promote him up to AA.
Aaron Barrett has gone from unknown 9th rounder to organizational top prospect in one season; after tearing through Low-A with 52 Ks in 34 innings, he allowed just 2 runs in 17 high-A innings to close out the year. His performance earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League along with a number of other high-profile Nats prospects. Outlook for next season: As with Selik, I’d imagine he belongs in the AA bullpen; we’ll see if the numbers work out. If not he starts in Potomac looking for a quick jump.
Josh Smoker, the Nats poster child for NOT drafting high school arms early, threw a grand total of 9.2 innings between three levels this year. Its hard to believe, but he’ll play his 6th minor league season in our system in 2013 and then he’ll likely move on. Outlook for next season: if healthy, High-A bullpen to try one last time to resurrect his Nats career.
Other Relievers who appeared in High-A of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league FA in another organization.
- Adam Carr, a 28-yr old in high-A after spending most of 2011 in AAA. Org arm.
- Jimmy Barthmaier looked great in 19 High-A innings; he should since he’s 28 and in his 8th minor league season.
- Shane McCatty struggled through a 6-week mid-season injury and an 8.83 ERA in high-A. Nepotism seems to indicate that he’ll get another shot in 2013, deserved or not.
- Wilson Eusebio was promoted twice, both times inexplicably based on his performance, and ended up getting lit up in Potomac. He may be out of baseball after 2012.

Summary

Summary Potomac’s 5 opening day starters finished the season with these ERAs: 7.02, 5.85, 6.24, 4.84 and 4.92. Thankfully guys like Meyer, Holder and Karns replaced some of these starts with decent ones later on in the season. They got great performances up and down the bullpen though, which helped the team to remain in playoff contention late into the 2nd half (despite their sub .500 record). At least they were dominant at home (21-13 first half, 21-15 second half), giving the Potomac fans a lot to cheer for.

Outlook for next season: see the Low-A post.

Written by Todd Boss

September 14th, 2012 at 11:02 am

Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012

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Solis' TJ surgery news thins our already-too-thin starting pitching minor league depth. Photo via Natsinsider blog/Mark Zuckerman

With Spring Training in full swing, most of the focus is on the Nationals 25-man roster and who may or may not make it. Even with the additions to the major league roster, our minor league starter development is still incredibly important to this team for the long run. Despite having Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gonzalez each locked up for many years (roughly, 2016, 2016 and 2018 respectively with options exercised), the rest of the rotation is not exactly set in stone for the long run. Wang and Jackson are on one-year FA contracts and Lannan doesn’t seem a lock to be tendered this coming off season (where he’ll face arbitration for the third time and, if he stays here and puts in 30 starts, could be in line for something close to $8M in 2013). That is, if Lannan is still even with the team in a year’s time (he seems surplus to requirements right now and may be a trade candidate).

Even more importantly, three key starters in our farm system went the other way for Gonzalez. Our 2012 AAA starter safety net of Milone and Peacock is now set to be the 4th and 5th starter in Oakland, and our most electric younger arm (Cole) is now one of Billy Beane’s best prospects.

That being said, lets talk about what the 2012 minor league rotations may look like, and where interest may lie with up and coming arms. Experienced readers will note that, by and large, I only focus on minor league starters. That is because, for the very large part, that pitchers rise up in the minors as starters and only get converted to be relievers upon failing as starters. If you look at our current bullpen; Clippard, Rodriguez, Burnett, Gorzelanny, Detwiler and Lidge are all former starters, converted to being relievers either because of poor performance or for physical reasons. Only Storen has grown up entirely as a reliever. Therefore, the odds of a guy who is already pitching in relief in the lower minors rising up to be a part of the MLB bullpen is relatively slim. Loogies? Another matter, but still a difficult path (just ask someone like Josh Smoker). Therefore, I tend to focus on Starters with occasional lip service given to closers per level and other relievers who are pitching their way into promotions.

Luke Erickson has posted some predictions (for AAA, AA, high-A and low-A), I put in an updated guess on Syracuse’s rotation post Gonzalez trade, and I had a series of posts at the end of last season wrapping up each level with predictions for 2012. From all those posts, here’s my preliminary guesses on the rotations for the minor league rotations:

AAA: Stammen, Maya, Arneson, Ballard, Buschmann

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Erickson’s guesses of Atkins and Hernandez though replacing the last two; I’m guessing there’s going to be a wide-open competition for this rotation in this year’s spring training. And, I specifically did not include John Lannan here; I just cannot believe the team is going to stick him in Syracuse by virtue of his option after signing on to pay him $5M.

First man promoted: I’d guess Stammen, who did have some successes in last year’s call-up, but it’ll take a swine-flu epidemic in the Nationals clubhouse for him to get called up to make some starts. The MLB staff looks to have two former starters in their bullpen who will get the ball before Stammen gets a shot in 2012, and that doesn’t include the Wang/Lannan 5th starter conundrum.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Arneson; he’s bounced our system around like a pinball lately, and the team seems to use him as a multi-level handy-man instead of a starter prospect.

AA: Rosenbaum, Bronson, Demny, Gilliam, Olbrychowski

This list did have Sammy Solis until his TJ surgery was announced, and I put in Olbrychowski, who was halfway decent in a bunch of 2nd half starts in 2011. I do think Roark is done being a starter in this system but I could be wrong. Gilliam was the little-known make-weight player in the Gonzalez trade and I think he makes it to the Harrisburg roster.

First man promoted: Danny Rosenbaum, who aced Potomac last year and has the same make up as Lannan. But, unfortunately there’s no top-10 stars on this list that could make an immediate impact.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Obrychowski, who started 2011 in the pen and may be on a short leash if someone in Potomac lights it up.

High-A: Purke, Meyer, Selik, Grace, Hill

I think Purke is advanced enough to start here, as is Meyer. Of course, I also think Purke’s injury history could work against him and he ends up in extended spring for a bit. Either way, I think both would be poorly served by sticking them in Low-A. They’re both first round talents and need to be going against older, more advanced hitters right now. This rotation is the future for the Nats; if they can’t find a 2014 starter out of this group, then we’ll be spending a ton in the FA pitching market for years to come. This rotation is hurt by the loss of Taylor Jordan, who will be out the entirety of 2012 with TJ surgery after pitching very effectively for the first half of 2011 for Hagerstown. Hill is the name i’m least confident in, only putting him here by virtue of his being a senior draftee in 2011, thus he’d be at least 3 years too old for low-A this year.

First man promoted: Cameron Selik; the phenom from 2011’s Hagerstown staff already has a ton of Potomac experience and could move up soon. Despite their promise, I think both Purke and Meyers will be in Potomac for at least a half a season to get their professional legs.

First man demoted to the bullpen: Grace: he wasn’t entirely convincing as a starter in low-A, but his numbers were skewed by one or two really bad outings.

Low-A: Turnbull, Hansen, Ray, McGeary, Karns?

Maybe the 5th would be Karns, who if healthy could be a quick riser after so many injuries have derailed what was a promising young arm. I think Ray starts here again with the idea of quickly promoting him, despite his success here last year. He’s still young. Of course, I could also see Ray and Hill switching places between low- and high-A.

First man promoted: Robbie Ray: he out pitched AJ Cole last year without any of the Baseball America top 100 love. I think he’s the next in a long line of lower velocity but higher result lefty starters that the system has been developing (see Lannan, Detwiler to a certain extent, Solis, Rosenbaum and McGeary for comps).

First man demoted to the bullpen: Karns, if he’s here. I’m guessing Karns has this season to show that he continues to be a starter prospect, with a back-of-the-bullpen job waiting if he can’t show he’s durable enough to go 6 innings every 5 days.

Short-A: MRodriguez, Dupra, Baez and 2 draft picks.
GCL: Mieses repeating plus 4 guys from DSL and the 2012 draft.

There’s almost no point of trying to predict the short season rotations, but I do believe that the names listed here aren’t going to make the Low-A roster but are still worth keeping as starters in extended spring. We had almost no starter talent in the GCL last season, with only Mieses making enough of an impression to keep him in that role.

Lastly, Taylor Jordan and Sammy Solis start the year on the DL, unfortunately, both with Tommy John surgery. They would have both been prominent members of their rotations after great seasons last year, and their injuries further thin our starting pitching depth post Gonzalez trade.

Written by Todd Boss

March 1st, 2012 at 11:55 am

Auburn/Short-A Pitching Staff year in Review

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Nathan Karns looks to resurrect a promising career. Photo via perfectgame.org

Because of life changes and lack of spare time, I stopped doing the daily reviews of the minor league pitching rotations in early august. This was too bad, because I didn’t adequately track which 2011 draftees were placed with which team. We’ll do some quick catch-up here.

Here’s the status of the Auburn pitching staff at the end of the season (ages are as of 9/30/11)

Rotation: Estevez 19, MRodriguez 22, Meza (L) 21, Dupra 22, Karns 23, Hill 22
Bullpen: Kreis 22, Henke 22, Mirowski 22, Barrett 23, MRivera 24, Grisz 21, Hawkins (L) 21, Hanks 21, Bates 23
spot starts: Jenkins(L) 22, KLopez 21
promotions: Holland, Bronson (down and back), Holt, Demmin, CGarcia
up-and-back: Hanks, Bates
demotions: McKenzie (sort of), Encarnation, Monar

Auburn starters. The rotation started the season with Demmin, Estevez, Encarnation, KLopez and Bates.

Ryan Demmin’s short-A career was “short,” lasting 5 mostly good starts before being promoted up to high-A. He eventually settled in Low-A and was reviewed there. Outlook for next season: (from high-A post): Potomac middle reliever.
Wirkin Estevez was the workhorse of the short-A squad, making 14 appearances (13 starts) and posting a respectable 4.01 era as one of the younger pitchers in the league as a 19yr old. He was up and down in his starts; some good to great, some bad to awful. He’ll need to be more consistent going forward to stay in the rotation. Outlook for next season: The 2010 Dominican Summer League (DSL) grad should graduate to low-A, though I’m not sure there’s room for him in the rotation. I’m guessing he’s a bullpen arm there.
Pedro Encarnation had three mostly bad starts before getting demoted to GCL. We’ll review him there.
Kelvin Lopez, despite being one of the first starters through the rotation, was really just putting in a spot start and pitched mostly out of the bullpen. He was relatively effective in the short season, posting a 3.65 era in 10 games and 24 2/3 innings. Outlook for next season: Entering his 4th pro season he should feature in the Hagerstown bullpen, but the competition there will be crowded. He had better numbers than most of his 2011 Hagerstown competition and should stick.
Colin Bates started hot in the rotation, got promoted after 7 starts, then floundered in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn in late august, where he worked out of the bullpen. His ERA was good in short-A (2.25) and was an improvement over 2010, but he’s already old for the level and needs to improve for next year. Outlook for next season: Potomac middle relief on a short leash.
Manny Rodriguez was one of the first 2011 draftees to appear in our system, signing quickly as a 10th round pick and pitching 50 innings over 14 appearances and 12 starts in Auburn. Results? 2-3 with a 4.65 era in his first pro season. Like a lot of guys coming off full college seasons, he seemed to tire in his late August starts. Outlook for next season: Repeats Short-A as a starter.
Christian Meza started the season in the GCL, then was promoted after two appearances to join the Auburn rotation. He had 10 starts and posted a 5.68 era in them. Outlook for next season: with all the starter prospects we drafted in 2011, I think Meza drops to the bullpen and repeats Short-A in 2012.
Brian Dupra was another 2011 draftee (a Senior out of Notre Dame) who featured as predominantly a starter in Auburn. He had better results than some of his draft day compatriots, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.46 era in 54 2/3 innings. Outlook for next season: he starts the season in the Short-A rotation after staying behind in extended spring training.
Nathan Karns has been an enigma so far in his Nats career. A 2009 draftee, he never appeared professionally after signing, then missed all of 2010 with an injury. The team started him slow in 2011, giving him 5 starts in the GCL (where he didn’t allow a run over 18 innings while giving up just 2 hits), and then giving him another 8 good starts in Auburn, where he was a respectable 3-2 with a 3.44 era. He was rather wild on the season, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, but the promising arm drafted 2 years ago seems to be back. Outlook for next season: He’ll compete for a rotation spot in Potomac but may settle for a bullpen role.
Taylor Hill was another 2011 draftee who featured in the Auburn staff, getting five late season starts after pitching out of the bullpen after signing. His control was impeccable; 27Ks against just 3 walks in 31 innings, and his 5 starts were stellar; a 2.38 ERA in those appearances. Outlook for next season: He was a college senior draftee and will play next year as a 23 yr old. I think he’ll win a spot in the Potomac rotation out of spring.

Auburn Relievers:

A slew of 2010 and 2011 draftees pitched out of the Auburn bullpen and struggled. Kreis, Henke, and Barrett each posted eras in the 4-5 range for the 2011 squad. None of these guys were high round draft picks and were always meant to be primarily organizational guys unless proven otherwise. Barrett was mostly used as the closer and had 32 ks in 26 innings, but also had a ton of walks and a 4.05 era. Outlook for next season: All 3 back in Short-A bullpen.
Chad Jenkins survived his third pro season and put up good short-A numbers in a combo role of loogy and long relief. Unfortunately he had more walks than strikeouts, and time may be running out for the 2009 17th rounder. Outlook for next season: another shot at the Hagerstown bullpen, with the firing line if he can’t cut it in his 4th pro season.
Manuel Rivera is a long serving DSL grad finishing his 5th pro season in our system. He put up good short-A numbers in a relief mode (3-0, 2.81 era in 20 appearances) and may be a Dominican Republic find. Outlook for next season: he moves up to the Hagerstown bullpen to give full-season baseball a shot.
Mirowski, Grisz, Hawkins and Holt all pitched really well in the Auburn bullpen after being 2011 draftees (or in Grisz’ case a non-drafted FA find). Holt was promoted up to Hagerstown and finished the season there. Outlook for next season: all four could be in the mix for a full-season bullpen job, or could find themselves back in Short-A if they don’t make the team out of extended spring.
Tyler Hanks bounced around the low minors this year, pitching lights out in the GCL before struggling in low-A and ending the season in the short-A bullpen. Outlook for next season: he should get another shot at the Hagerstown bullpen.
Others who appeared briefly: Christian Garcia was a waiver claim mid-season from the Yankees; he threw a bunch of good innings in Auburn before moving back where he belonged; AAA. Blake Monar threw a few innings then decamped back for the GCL. Lastly Silvio Medina did the same as Monar, pitching mostly out of the GCL.

Its hard to predict where a lot of these guys will end up; the team drafted SO many arms in 2011, mostly older college guys, that we may very well see a ton of churn in the bullpens of Hagerstown, Potomac and Auburn for next year. Plus we’ll have a new wave of rizing DSL stars and 2012 signees to consider once these teams are put together. So predictions are tough.

Written by Todd Boss

September 26th, 2011 at 9:51 am

Posted in Minor League Pitching

Tagged with blake monar, brian dupra, chad jenkins, christian garcia, christian meza, colin bates, kelvin lopez, manny rodriguez, manuel rivera, nathan karns, pedro encarnation, ryan demmin, silvio medina, taylor hill, tyler hanks, wirkin estevez

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘taylor hill’ tag

Minor League Pitching Age Appropriateness for 2013

Monthly Check-in with Minor League Pitching Staffs

Nats Major & Minor League Pitching Staffs vs Predictions

2013 Projected Pitching Staffs and Rotations; entire Nats system

Nats 2012 Minor League Rotations: Guesses and Results

Hagerstown/Low-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

Potomac/High-A Pitching Staff Year in Review; 2012

Updated Minor League Rotation Predictions for 2012

Auburn/Short-A Pitching Staff year in Review

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