This post is somewhat driven by fantasy baseball, where one of the typical pitching categories is “Saves,” and the constant churn of closers has become a huge detriment to most fantasy baseball players. I’m no exception; this year I drafted who I presumed was going to be the closer for Milwaukee (Jim Henderson), only to watch him be replaced the day before the season started, inexplicably and without warning, by Francisco Rodriguez, who subsequently earned 40+ saves for the guy in my league who vulture waiver-wire picked him up. (We eventually found out why; Henderson gave up 10 runs in 11 innings before going under the knife for “Labrum & Rotator Cuff Debridement.” Ugh).
My research shows that just 13 of the 30 teams in the MLB this year started and ended the season with the same closer. That’s a pretty amazing churn of players. So I put together a tracking XLS.
|Team||Switch during 2014 season?||2014 Closer, start of season||1/2 point Closer||End of Year Closer||Most Saves 2014 full season||# Saves for Team Leader in 2014|
|Ari||Addison Reed||Addison Reed||Addison Reed||Addison Reed||32|
|Atl||Craig Kimbrel||Craig Kimbrel||Craig Kimbrel||Craig Kimbrel||47|
|Bal||Yes||Tommy Hunter||Zach Britton||Zach Britton||Zach Britton||37|
|Bos||Yes||Koji Uehara||Koji Uehara||Edward Mujica||Koji Uehara||26|
|Chc||Yes||Jose Veras||Hector Rondon||Hector Rondon||Hector Rondon||29|
|Cin||Yes||J.J. Hoover||Aroldis Chapman||Aroldis Chapman||Aroldis Chapman||36|
|Cle||Yes||John Axford||Cody Allen||Cody Allen||Cody Allen||24|
|Col||LaTroy Hawkins||LaTroy Hawkins||LaTroy Hawkins||LaTroy Hawkins||23|
|Cws||Yes||Nate Jones||Ronald Belisario?||Jake Petricka||Jake Petricka||14|
|Det||Joe Nathan||Joe Nathan||Joe Nathan||Joe Nathan||35|
|Hou||Comm.||Chad Qualls||Chad Qualls||Chad Qualls||Chad Qualls||19|
|KC||Greg Holland||Greg Holland||Greg Holland||Greg Holland||46|
|LAA||Yes||Ernesto Frieri||Joe Smith||Huston Street||Huston Street||17|
|LAD||Kenley Jansen||Kenley Jansen||Kenley Jansen||Kenley Jansen||44|
|Mia||Steve Cishek||Steve Cishek||Steve Cishek||Steve Cishek||39|
|Mil||Yes||Jim Henderson||Francisco Rodriguez||Francisco Rodriguez||Francisco Rodriguez||44|
|Min||Glen Perkins||Glen Perkins||Glen Perkins||Glen Perkins||34|
|NYM||Yes||Bobby Parnell||Jennry Mejia||Jennry Mejia||Jennry Mejia||28|
|Nyy||David Robertson||David Robertson||David Robertson||David Robertson||39|
|Oak||Yes||Jim Johnson||Sean Doolittle||Sean Doolittle||Sean Doolittle||22|
|Phi||Jonathan Papelbon||Jonathan Papelbon||Jonathan Papelbon||Jonathan Papelbon||39|
|Pit||Yes||Jason Grilli||Mark Melancon||Mark Melancon||Mark Melancon||33|
|Sdp||Yes||Huston Street||Joaquin Benoit||Joaquin Benoit||Joaquin Benoit||11|
|Sea||Fernando Rodney||Fernando Rodney||Fernando Rodney||Fernando Rodney||48|
|Sfg||Yes||Sergio Romo||Santiago Castilla||Santiago Castilla||Sergio Romo||23|
|Stl||Trevor Rosenthal||Trevor Rosenthal||Trevor Rosenthal||Trevor Rosenthal||45|
|TBR||Yes||Grant Balfour||Jake McGee||Jake McGee||Jake McGee||19|
|Tex||Yes||Neftali Feliz||Joaquim Soria||Neftali Feliz||Neftali Feliz||13|
|Tor||Casey Janssen||Casey Janssen||Casey Janssen||Casey Janssen||25|
|Was||Yes||Rafael Soriano||Rafael Soriano||Drew Storen||Rafael Soriano||32|
Now, technically the Reds never “switched” their closer; they just knew that Aroldis Chapman was coming back after a brief stint on the D/L. And the Astros show Chad Qualls in all the positions, but they clearly were going with a committee for most of the season. So you could argue against those two teams, but that still leaves half the league switching their closer mid-season. Other teams stuck with the same guy all year (Detroit with Joe Nathan) despite awful numbers (4.81 ERA on the season for Nathan), so you could argue that they *should* have switched.
The Nats were no exception; they started the year with Rafael Soriano, who was one of the league’s best for half the season. By September, the Nats had dumped Soriano for their *previous* closer in Drew Storen, who then dumped the bed in his only two post-season appearances (blowing the save in Jordan Zimmermann‘s epic 8 2/3 shutout innings, and then allowing two hits and a run in a non-save situation the next night).
What does this mean? For “real” baseball, not much that we didn’t already know. Closers are judged mostly on high-leverage short-sample sizes, where one blow-out inning destroys ERA and WHIP numbers for a month. Its a ridiculous statistic that has far too much credence in the modern game. And its even more ridiculous that a mediocre “closer” with a ton of saves earns more than a middle-to-late innings reliever with a ton of “holds” and great numbers. But this is our system.
For “fantasy” baseball, the take away again is kind of known: closers are a crapshoot. Try to get a couple of “known” closers in the 5th-8th rounds, grab a couple of fliers on people later on, but be sure to be incredibly proactive on the waiver wires in the last week of spring training/first week of the season. A lot of these personnel changes happened in early April and then stuck the rest of the way through (quick examples being Milwaukee as described above and the New York Mets, who saw presumed closer Bobby Parnell blow out his elbow on practically the first day of the season and have Tommy John surgery on 4/8/14).