Rutledge may be pressed back into the starting role. 2023 photo via 3rdmanin.com
We’re two weeks into the season … and the Nats are already running out of pitching.
With the latest moves, here’s the status of our 40-man SPs:
MLB Rotation: Gore, Williams, Irvin, Parker*, Lord
SPs on DL: Grey, Herz, Cavalli, Soroka
40-man SPs in minors: Ogasawara, Lara,
At the end of last year, we were in a similar situation to some extent … except that we were still calling Rutledge, Adon, and Henry “starters.” Now, we’re not calling any of those guys starters anymore, and we’re now one injury away from a disaster occurring. Two of the four guys on the DL are down for months in various stages of TJ surgery (Grey, Herz), a third is just only now starting throwing some innings and seems weeks away (Cavalli) and a fourth has a biceps issue and isn’t expected back until “May” (Soroka). “May” could mean 5/1 or 5/31.
Neither Ogasawara or Lara is MLB ready: Ogasawara got shelled in spring training and has a 4.80 ERA in 3 starts in AAA. Lara has a 9.26 ERA and is getting rocked right now in AAA and may need more AA time. Neither looks like an option if we have another starter go down, and we probably call up Alvarez as option A before looking at returning Rutledge to the rotation as optionB. Maybe you look at someone like Plinkington (long-time ML starter) or Adon (even if we know how that goes) .. but neither are on 40-man at present.
At least we have some starting pitching options here … the bullpen is in dire straits.
Its April 15th and we’re basically out of relievers.
MLB bullpen: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Rutledge, Henry
RPs on DL: Law, Brzycky, Ribalta, Thompson
40-RPs in minors; None (!)
That’s right; we don’t have a single 40-man reliever in the minors right now. Thanks to early April injuries to Law and Ribalta, the team has already called up its minor league reliever depth in Rutledge and Henry. Next guy who goes down? We’re adding someone to the 40-man and rolling the dice. Nobody in AAA has more than 3-4 innings, so attempting to guess who would make sense to callup is folly, but the two names that might make the most sense initially are Carlos Romero and Jack Sinclair, both setup/closer types that have shown success in either AA or AAA. There’s also three 2025 MLFAs in AAA in Plinkington, Weidel, and Helvey, two of which who have MLB time, so those two make sense to callup as well (they probably also have opt-outs built in).
I can’t remember a season where this many arms hit the DL so soon. I can remember Aprils with bullpens so bad that Rizzo cleaned house, but nothing like this. Should be interesting to see what happens next. With a full 40-man roster, every move has to have a corresponding move … and its not like we have a ton of deadweight on the 40-man right now. With seven guys on the 10/15 day DL, that’s just seven remaining 40-man players:
SPs: Ogasawara, Lara,
C: Millas
INFs: Baker, Lipscomb
OFs: Yepez, Hassell
There’s not a name on that remaining list that is an obvious DFA. There’s not really an obvious name on the DL right now to whack either. So that means a pretty deep cut DFA or a 60-day stash for every move.
Tough to focus on winning ball games when you don’t know who’s pitching the 7th.
Richmond Native Verlander remains the career leader of Opening day starts.
Photo unk via rumorsandrants.com
Now that the 2025 Opening Day is past us, and I’ve updated the XLS for this year’s starters and done some housecleaning of now-retired starters, here’s some Opening day starter trivia for you.
Here’s a link to the Opening day starter xls, which is also updated along the right hand side in the Links section. It is also worth noting that Baseball Reference of course maintains similar information. Here for example is the canonical opening day list of lineups (pitchers and players) for the Washington Nationals franchise. And here’s the list of all 30 teams’ opening day lineups for the 2025 season, with similar data for all past seasons). I can’t quite find a similar resource to just the starters across all 30 teams, but I’m sure it’s there somewhere, so I continue to maintain this XLS.
Ok, that being said, here’s some useless trivia related to Opening Day Starters:
First time Opening Day Starters for 2025: 12 of the 30, including our own MacKenzie Gore. It may be fair to say that, were there not an opening series in Japan, and were there not a couple of last minute scratches, this number should have been a lot lower, like maybe 8-9.
Current active Leader of Opening Day Starts: still Justin Verlander, with 12. He did 9 in Detroit, then another 3 in Houston. Others in the conversation are Kershaw (9), and Scherzer (7), neither of which seems likely to extend this record before they’re out of the game.
Current Active Consecutive streak: Logan Webb and Framber Valdez both now have 4 consecutive Opening day starts for San Francisco and Houston respectively.
Current Leader of Consecutive Opening Day Starts: both Verlander and Kershaw at one point made 7 straight opening day starts for their teams, and are the current leaders in that category. We’ll need another four years of consistency from Webb/Valdez to catch them, which seems unlikely (see my commentary below).
Historical records:
Most Opening Day Starts in History: Tom Seaver (16). Tied for 2nd place with 14 is Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Walter Johnson
Most Consecutive Opening Day Starts in History: Jack Morris; all 14 of his starts were in a row, Mr. Durability, and Mr. Hall of Famer thanks to the Veteran’s committee.
Nats Records:
Max Scherzer is the Nats franchise leader in Opening day starts with 6.
Strasburg is 2nd with four: he took the ball opening day in the 3 seasons before the Scherzer acquisition, then got it in 2017 mid Scherzer contract.
Gore with his 2025 start becomes just the 9th guy to get the ball opening day for Washington.
Odalis Perez remains the most unlikely Opening Day starter, getting the ball in our bottoming-out year of 2008.
Lastly, here’s some interesting team observations for 2025’s Opening day Starters
With Eovaldi getting the ball for the 2nd year in a row, Texas breaks a streak of having 8 different opening day starters in the 8 years prior to 2025. And it’s even crazier than that: They’ve had 15 different opening day starters in the last 16 seasons, dating to 2009! Only one guy has repeated: Cole Hamels in 2016 and 2018, and Now Eovaldi in 2024 and 2025.
Los Angeles Dodgers, despite being probably the league’s best team over the past decade or so and your defending WS champs, now has had 7 different guys make their last 7 opening day starts. Yamamoto, Glasnow, Urias, Buehler, Kershaw, May, and Ryu.
Urias, in case you didn’t remember, just was suspended a Half a Season for his SECOND domestic Violence arrest and has probably thrown his last MLB pitch. So, a 2nd DV arrest, charge, and pleading guilty = half a season suspension according to MLB. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer, when he was accused of his first DV issue (but not charged, arrested, or guilty) was suspended for two full seasons and now cannot get a job in the Majors at a time when teams are begging for starters and is seemingly blacklisted by all 30 teams. Yes, Bauer comes across as opinionated and abrasive, but he was definitively cleared of charges AND pretty clearly demonstrated that his accusations were a complete setup by someone trying to catfish a major leaguer and who was subsequently indicted on felony fraud charges for filing false reports against Bauer … yet here we are. He’s missed out on literally hundreds of millions of dollars of salary because … why? Because he’s outspoken on Twitter?
Other teams who have not really been able to find a consistent starter: NY Mets: 5 straight different opening day starters. Cincinnati: 10 different starters in the last 11 years. Pittsburgh: 9 different starters in last 10. Baltimore: 9 different starters in the last 10 years. Angels: 9 in the last 11. Some teams just can’t find Aces.
Now for some random commentary on the state of Starting Pitching in the game. I write answers on Quora about Baseball all the time, and came across a question there asking whether recently inducted starters like CC Sabathia were “worthy” of the Hall b/c he “only” had 251 career wins. This in the context of the three aging star starters Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw who currently lead all active starters in Wins with (as of this writing on 3/28/25) 262, 216, and 212 respectively. They’re 42,40, and 37 respectively, meaning that the odds of them significantly adding to their current win totals seem slim.
But, I don’t think anyone would dispute that all three are no-doubt hall of famers, despite two of them not being close to even 250 wins, let alone 300 wins. Three major individual awards basically make a player a lock for the hall:
Verlander: 3 Cy Youngs (9 seasons in the top 5), 1 MVP, 1 Rookie of the Year, 3400+ Ks
Scherzer: 3 Cy Youngs (8 seasons in top 5), 3400+ Ks.
Kershaw: 3 Cy Youngs (7 seasons in top 5), 1 MVP, and has 2968 Ks as we speak.
But….. what’s next? A quick perusal at the state of Starting Pitching in the league reveals that we may not see another 250 win pitcher…. ever? Here’s the rest of the current active top 10 of career Wins leaders with their ages and some context:
Gerrit Cole: 153 wins at age 34; just blew out elbow so he’s missing all of 2025. Does he even get to 200 career wins now?
Charlie Morton: 138 wins at age 41: he’s the #2 guy in Baltimore’s rotation but this may be his last season.
Chris Sale: 138 wins at age 36; having a second-wind career moment, coming off of last year’s Cy Young, but he made just 11 starts in 2020, 2021, and 2022 combined thanks to injury. Does he get to 175 career wins?
Kyle Gibson: 112 wins at age 37. Quick: what team does Kyle Gibson pitch for? I had to look it up; he signed with Baltimore a week ago and just got optioned to AAA. He’s 7th in the majors in career wins! And now he’s going to pitch in Norfolk for a bit.
Sonny Grey: 111 wins at age 35. Ok, so he’s St. Louis’ #1 starter and has been relatively durable, but can you count on him getting even to 150 career wins? He has 36 wins in his last four seasons combined.
Carlos Carrasco: 110 wins at age 38. He signed a MLFA/NRI deal with the Yankees and seems to have lucked his way into a rotation spot. In his last two combined seasons, he’s had a 6.00 ERA and a -2.6 bWAR, and it doesn’t seem like he’s long for the majors at this point.
Yu Darvish; also 110 wins at age 38. He’s still under contract for 3 more years in San Diego, which may give him a shot at 150 career wins.
Where’s the sure-fire Hall of Fame starting pitcher with 250 wins and 3,000 Ks in this group?? Nowhere to be found. Would you even characterize the two best guys on this list (Cole and Sale) as hall of famers right now? I wouldn’t. Maybe Cole if he comes back and dominates, but that’s no sure thing.
Lets look a bit further down the list of active starting pitcher win leaders to see who looks like they’re putting together a career that, maybe possibly could turn into a HoFame career?
The two best Age/Accumulated wins combos might be Aaron Nola (104 wins at age 32) and Jose Berrios (99 wins at age 31).
Nola had one great 9.7 bWAR season in 2018, while Barrios has received Cy Young votes in exactly one season in his career (a 9th place finish, meaning he probably got like one home-town writer vote, in 2021).
The highest career win total for a player who hasn’t turned 30 yet is Dylan Cease, who has 57 wins at age 29.
the 50-career win range has a slew of other guys who are “known names,” guys like Logan Webb, Zac Gallen, Jack Flaherty, etc.
Our former #1 draft pick Lucas Giolito? 61 wins at age 30, right in this same range.
I mean, do any of these guys sound like Hall of Famers to you?
What’s my point? Randy Johnson was elected to the hall in 2015, finishing off a 300-win career in 2010. That was a decade ago, but it might as well be a lifetime ago in terms of evolution of pitching in the game. Not only does it not look like we’ll see a 300 win pitcher ever again, after Justin Verlander I’m sure we’ll ever see a 250 game winner again. And, I’ll just go ahead and say it; after Scherzer and Kershaw i’m not sure we’ll ever see a 200 game winner again. Nobody except Gerrit Cole is projecting to be even close to 200 wins for his career.
A Decade from now, will the new standards for SPs in Cooperstown really be 175 wins and 2,500 Ks?
It has been a pleasure to follow the 2024 rotations of this team, something that hasn’t always been true. 2024 saw a slew of arms make major leaps forward, both in terms of promotion and in terms of stature.
Here’s a final recap of the rotations for the 2024 season, showing the evolution of the rotation at each level, and then we’ll make some predictions on 2025.
There was no September summary since the various leagues staggered the amount of time they played in Sept, leading to this post where we’ll do an overall summary of the season.
Critical to this analysis are the following links:
Lets start at the top. I’m drawing from all my posts throughout the year to show the evolution of each staff’s rotation. Then for 2024, I’m generally predicting 6-7 names per rotation to account for the inevitable injuries.
MLB Washington
Opening Day: Grey, Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin
End of April: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin, Parker,
End of May: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin, Parker,
End of June: Irvin, Gore, Corbin,Parker, Herz
End of July: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz
End of August: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz
End of Season: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz, Williams
2024 Discussion
Despite losing 90 games, the team’s rotation was shockingly intact for most of the season. Amazingly, Patrick Corbin hung onto his rotation (and roster) spot the entire season, despite being perpetually listed as “the next starter to get DFA’d once a spot was needed). He earned his $35M walk year salary with 170+ innings of 5.58 ERA, which was the WORST ERA in the league, by half a run, of all 57 qualified pitchers this year. In an interesting statistical side note: his bWAR is -0.8 (as you’d expect) but his fWAR is 1.7! That’s right; he has a positive 1.7 fWAR for the year. This happens by the way, because Fangraph’s pitcher WAR heavily uses FIP in its calculation, which heavily weighs strikeouts and ignores any ball put into play (which means we’re ignoring about 70% of a pitcher’s at-bats). But I digress. Let’s simplify this: Corbin was in the rotation b/c he’s getting paid a ton of money this year, he took the ball every 5 days, he got shelled all year, and I’ll be shocked if he gets a guaranteed contract next year. His departure frees up a ton of payroll and a 2025 rotation spot.
Thanks to an early injury to opening day starter Josiah Grey (which turned into TJ surgery, likely costing him the entirety of the 2025 season) the team was able to debut found gold in Mitchell Parker, a 5th round 2020 draft pick who got just $100k in bonus money (reminder: picks in rounds 11-20 can sign for half again as much without penalty). Parker will finish the year with 30 starts, a 94 ERA+, and a FIP that flatters his ERA. Trevor Williams was putting together a Cy Young worthy season until he suffered a dreaded flexor strain; thankfully for Williams it didn’t turn into TJ surgery as it did for Grey, but it did cost him the chance to get traded to a contender, and it cost us a chance to net a couple of solid prospects in return for one of the league’s best starters. It’s a shame all the way around. Williams was brought back up for the last week of the season mostly as a courtesy to the veteran, who will head into the off-season at least being able to claim he finished the year healthy. Irvin and Gore gave season-long “almost league average” stats, though each had stretches of real brilliance. Irvin featured far fewer baserunners (1.18 whip) but not as much swing-and-miss, while Gore put a ton more guys on but showed he has no-hit capabilities. Lastly, Williams’ injury gave the team another opportunity to give a months-long tryout a AAA pitcher (in this case DJ Herz, trade bounty for half a 2023 season of Candelario and another guy who can only be described as “found gold”). Herz struggled initially but improved every month he was up and has finished the season with almost an identical ERA+ as Irvin and Parker had (94-95).
2025 Outlook:
Tangent: this is as good as any of a spot to have this discussion. I believe that Mike Rizzo will be taking a look at this team’s 2024 performance and will conclude they’re still a year away. I could be wrong; he signed Jayson Werth after the team went 69-93 in 2010, but I believe that was more of a, “Hey guys, this team has cash and isn’t afraid to spend it” kind of move. He doesn’t have to make that kind of move again; the league knows this team spent $200M at one point in its last run, and probably gets up there again if/when it thinks it can compete again. I think the lost year of Cavalli in 2024, the 2025 lost year of Grey, the slow-down of development of House and Hassell, and the relative youth of our next real wave of top prospects will have Rizzo conclude that 2025 will be another incremental growth year, and that decision will drive what we write about in the next section.
Williams probably did enough to not only guarantee himself a contract in 2025, but probably will command more than his Nats contract (2yrs $13M). Given the above paragraph, Should the team resign him? I certainly hope they do not. I think they have better, cheaper alternatives from inside, and they don’t want/ need to commit to a multi-year contract with a guy who might be 2023-version or 2024-version. Corbin is clearly gone.
That leaves the four youngsters to lead the line in 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz.
Who joins them? The hopeful answer for all Nats fans is a healthy Cavalli. That would be the easiest, neatest solution. However, I’m now in the “seriously, officially worried” phase w/r/t Cavalli. He’s turned a 12-month injury into a 24 month one. Something tells me that I shouldn’t count on Cavalli for opening day, which means the team needs a 5th starter. I think the team goes bargain shopping for an extra starter, a veteran guy looking for a bounce back. But I wouldn’t want to roll the dice on a MLFA/NRI guy if it comes to it; I’d rather spend a bit of cash and bring in someone who could really contribute. Maybe a one-year guy who we could look to flip. I mean heck, if they want to take the PR hit, Trevor Bauer would certainly take a one year deal to get back into the league. A veteran starter could give them a little room on Cavalli, and it could give them an option to send Herz back down if he struggles to open 2025.
2025 rotation prediction: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz, Veteran FA signing (Grey on DL, Cavalli in AAA)
AAA Rochester
Opening Day: Adon, Rutledge, Parker, Ward, Herz
End of April: Adon, Rutledge, Ward, Herz, Watkins,
End of May: Adon, Rutledge, Ward, Herz, Watkins,
End of June: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Lord
End of July: Rutledge, Ward, Alvarez, Lord, Luckham
End of August: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Stuart
End of Season: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Lord
2024 Discussion: Like the MLB rotation, the AAA rotation showed a lot of consistency for the year. Three guys (Rutledge, Watkins, and Ward) were basically in the rotation the entire season. Rutledge and Ward are on our 40-man and were, lets just be honest, awful: Rutledge had a 6.40 ERA for the season, Ward not much better at 5.64. Both essentially served as MLB insurance the entire year and were passed over by Parker and Herz, both of whom went up and stayed up. Neither guy had anything close to a stretch of productivity that was impressive.
The team gave Joan Adon yet another run-out to prove he’s not a capable starter before removing him mid-season to make way for those moving up from AA that had merited the promotions (Alvarez and Lord). Lord continued his amazing run through the organization in AAA, and had the best numbers of any of the year-end starters (AAA numbers of 3.93 ERA, 1.38 whip, and a K/inning). Not bad for an 18th round draft pick. Last year’s Nats Minor league Pitcher of the year Alvarez had 16 starts in AAA this year with mediocre results: 4.58 ERA, 1.45 whip, 61 Ks in 78IP. He has practically zero prospect buzz and the scouting report on him seems to be “lefty guy with weird mechanics who gets by on deception, not stuff.” I think he eventually gets converted to be a lefty reliever and that’s his eventual ticket to the majors, but for the time being he’s bought himself another year in the AAA rotation. Stuart only got a handful of AAA starts before getting hurt, but was basically unhittable for us in AA. We couldn’t say the same for Luckham, who earned a promotion and then got similarly shelled and got sent back down.
2025 Outlook: Two guys are already gone. Watkins was a 32-yr old veteran MLFA who presumably is pitching elsewhere next year. Ward got waived ahead of the Rule-5 deadline, as the team tried to sneak him off the roster, but he got claimed by Baltimore (who’s done that several times to us as we dumped pitchers). Adon is out of options and probably is gone at the end of spring training.
Rutledge still has one major advantage in this organization: he was a 1st round pick with a big bonus, which means he’ll continue to get opportunities to prove his worth; even though he’s clearly (to me anyway) a FB/slider 6’6″ behemoth who screams “8th inning guy” in a major league bullpen, he’ll get run out as a starter again in 2025. Alvarez is rule-5 eligible but was not protected; for now AAA rotation makes sense. I think the team will let a numbers game play out and will keep Stuart in AAA to start the year. Lastly, as they generally like to do, expect a cattle call of veteran MLFA/NRI types to get signed for the AAA 5th starter try-out, basically the Spencer Watkins of 2025.
I suppose it is also entirely possible the team has Cavalli start here and signs a guy to pitch in the majors, but that would depend on an organizational decision that Cavalli’s stunted rehab in 2024 will continue. Obviously I don’t have that kind of information. I also find it somewhat notable that Cavalli is not going to the AFL this fall in order to get some extra innings. Is he still hurt?
End of April: Luckham, Alvarez, Henry, Lord, Cuevas,
End of May: Luckham, Alvarez, Henry, Lord, Cuevas,
End of June: Luckham, Cuevas,Solesky, Lara, Theophile
End of July: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart
End of August: Luckham,Solesky, Lara, Saenz, Shuman
End of Season: Luckham, Solesky, Lara, Saenz, Shuman
2024 Discussion:
Luckham started the year on the AA hump, and ended the year on the AA hump as well with a brief unsuccessful stint in AAA. He’s still not ready and needs another AA year for sure (4.47 ERA). Alvarez had a 2.89 ERA in 10 starts and more than earned his AAA promotion; he won’t be coming back. 40-man and former top prospect Cole Henry has to be the biggest disappointment to Nats fans; 5 starts, just 13Ip, then back on the DL. He did a rehab stint in Wilmington before getting stuck right back on the 60-day DL. There was never any official note of the nature of the injury. Knowles was looking great, then suddenly poof on the DL. After a month, moved to 60-day, then a month after that the “full season” DL. I’m going to assume it was a major injury and he starts on DL in 2025. Cuevas hung in the rotation probably for a month too long with near 6.00 ERA before getting dropped to be “LR” guy, replaced by the rising Lord. once Lord proved AA couldn’t hold him, the team brought up prospect Lara, who shined for 19 starts and just got added to the 40-man. Solesky got signed in June after the CWS dumped him at the end of spring training and he looked great all year; enough so to go to the AFL to shop his talents. Theophile got called up and was stellar … then poof hit the DL and was gone. And now he’s a 6year MLFA. Saenz and Shuman both returned from injury to a mixed bag of success; Saenz may finally be out of the starter business, while Shuman needs a full season healthy.
2025 Outlook: Henry seems like a massive injury concern. He’s also a 40-man roster spot holder; would the team try to DFA him and outright him to get a spot? I would. I’ll assume he is on the DL to start the season. Same with Knowles. I think Lara starts in AA with the Nats typical “prove you can repeat the level then we’ll promote you.” I could see Solesky also going to AAA, but maybe that only happens if the team decides Rutledge is now a reliever. After that, expect retreads Luckham and Shuman to man the spots. Lastly, I’d put 23yr old Cuevas back in the rotation to fill it out until the next high-A guy merits a promotion.
End of April: Lara, Young, Cornelio, Theophile, Caceres,
End of May: Young,Cornelio, Theophile, Caceres, Atencio,
End of June: Young, Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Shuman
End of July: Cornelio, Atencio, Shuman, Susana, Davis,
End of August: Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Susana, Tepper
End of Season: Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Susana, Tepper,
2024 Discussion: Lara and Lord’s performances speak for themselves this year: Lord earned a 2-level promotion and Lara earned a 40-man spot. The rest of the opening day rotation was a grab bag of results. Young hung for half the season before getting replaced in the rotation. Caceres replaced Lord’s early promotion and had 23 starts with a 4.83 ERA. Cornelio had the most starts of anyone, 26 starts with a 5.53ERA. This is his second year with a 5+ era, and unlike in 2024, I don’t think he’s earning a social promotion for 2025. Theophile was the “least worst” candidate to get promoted when the AA team needed a starter, but he earned his keep in AA before getting hurt.
Atencio was sneaky good all year; he’s only 22 but he’s rule-5 eligible this year. I think he may be in line for a fast promotion ala Lara/Lord this year. Uber prospect Susana arrived in July and was decent in 10 starts. Despite his rocket-ship trajectory as a prospect, i don’t think he’s starting in AA based on his 10 starts of 4.18 ERA in high-A. Look for him to get a month in Wilmington before moving up. The rest of the guys who got somewhat regular starts at season’s end (Tepper, Davis) didn’t impress and probably get moved to the bullpen.
2025 Outlook: The rotation in Wilmington will be packed to start 2025, with a 1-2 punch of Susana and Sykora and solid prospects all the way through. Atencio will start in High-A as well. I’m assuming that Jake Bennett will be ready to go, and he should slot in as a starter in High-A looking to prove himself and move up fast. That’s a great rotation. I would think that Susana is good for a month, Sykora half a season, Bennett perhaps a couple months to show he’s healthy, and Atencio a half a season if they all pitch to their 2024 capabilities, meaning for lots of promotion opportunities coming up from Low-A. Lastly, I’ve got Clemmey starting here aggressively, if only because there’s just too many arms for Low-A.
2025 rotation prediction: Susana, Sykora, Atencio, Bennett, Clemmey (with Young, Caceres, Cornelio, Tepper, or Davis getting moved to the bullpen)
End of April: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Atencio
End of May: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Polanco, Sykora
End of June: Sthele, Susana, Davis, Polanco, Sykora,
End of July: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Tepper, Romero
End of August: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Romero, Clemmey
End of Season: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Romero, Clemmey
2024 Discussion: The Low-A rotation was headlined all year by Sykora, who blew through the league and stayed in the league probably 2 months more than he should have. It became clear he stayed to lead the team’s playoff run, and was a big part in the first championship for a Nats affiliate in some time. He’s obviously heading to High-A. Sullivan looked good and then hit the full-season DL: we’re assuming he’s starting there next year. Davis was solid and got promoted. Sthele managed to stay in the rotation all year despite a season-long 4.81 ERA. Bryan Sanchez pitched to a 6.66 ERA and got dumped out of the bullpen mid-season. 19yr old Clemmey is a top prospect and pitched an entire season in low-A despite his age; he probably needs a little more Low-A seasoning before looking to move up, but I could also make the argument to move him up based on the numbers of who needs to be in the Low-A rotation.
2025 Outlook: I sense the team is counting on its DL guys returning, based on the guys left at the end of the season and their general 2024 performance. The team had three experienced starters spend the entire season on the DL: Agostini, Tolman, and Aldonis. I’ll bet they put at least a couple in the 2025 rotation to get them back on track (Agostini went on in April and may still be hurt to start 2025). They seemed to like Sthele and Polanco, and Roman looked solid but may be a reliever. We do have two bigger-money starter prospects we drafted in 2024 in 4th rounder Jackson Kent (Arizona) and 6th rounder Davian Garcia; I sense both will be looked at hard for the low-A rotation. I’ll hedge and put Garcia in FCL rotation to start. Lastly the two FCL rotation stalwarts probably deserve a run.
2025 rotation prediction: Tolman, Aldonis, Kent, Colon, Portorreal, with Sthele, Polanco, Romero as LR/SS options. (dl: Sullivan, Agostini)
End of May: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, Farias
End of June: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, and rehabbers
End of July/Season: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, Saenz (rehab)
2024 Discussion: The FCL rotation was basically 4 guys and a rehabber all year. Sanchez and Romero earned their promotions, Colon and Portorreal pitched decently all year.
2025 Outlook: I sense we’ll see the team take the same tactic in 2025 for FCL that they did in 2024: all DSL graduates plus rehabbers. I’ll put 2024 draftee Garcia here, along with 2024 reliever Angel Roman and Moreno, who was hurt all 2024. Then the rest will be filled by DSL graduates and rehabbers.
Opening Day: De La Cruz, Oliveros, Hernandez, Vera, Feliz
End of June: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas,
End of July: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
End of August: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Feliz, Reyes, Lunar
End of Season: De La Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Lunar,
2024 Discussion: There’s only 2-3 arms worth talking about in the DSL: Feliz and Lunar, maybe Reyes. The Rest were bad, like 8ERA Bad.
2025 Outlook: I’d like to see Feliz, Lunar, and Reyes come stateside. Reyes had a bunch of “starts” but they were all 1 inning gigs; he’ll head to the bullpen. But Felix looks like he could be a starter candidate. That leaves the rest of these starters to repeat DSL in 2025. We’ll addin a couple of Jan IFA signings and that’ll be the 2025 rotation.
2025 rotation prediction: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, and two 2025 signings
Did I forget anyone? Agree or disagree with 2025 opening day predictions?
If Sykora isn’t the Nats minor league POTY i don’t know who it could possibly be. Photo MASN
Here’s the End of August 2024 check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to DSL.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Changes sinceend of last Month: None. Same five guys that have been there since the moment Williams went down.
Rotation Observations: Interestingly, the two best starters in August were … Corbin and Herz, who would have both been on the chopping block if we had any positive news from any of our injured starters. Herz had 6 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.17 Whip in the month, both best of any of our 5 arms. Corbin wasn’t half bad either: 3.76 ERA while going 2-1 in his 6 starts. Parker and Gore improved on their July 7+ ERA months with decent ERAs, though Gore’s was quite lucky given his 1.7 whip. Only Irvin really struggled on the month, mostly thanks to one bad start on 8/30.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Honestly … now that we’re in September, nobody’s getting cut out of this rotation unless the team wants to start saving innings. Only two guys got 9/1 callups and neither were starters. There’s only two “starters” on the 40-man not hurt: Rutledge and Ward, and as we’ll read later, neither deserve a promotion at this point.
Bullpen comments: We’ve seen a decent performance from the bullpen lately. Salazar had 13 appearances with zero runs. Can’t beat that. Rainey has been handled with kid gloves all year (and was the subject of a Fangraphs article about pitcher usage and leverage) and was solid in August. Meanwhile, Adon did a great job proving that not only can he not get MLB hitters out as a starter, but that he can’t get them out as a reliever either. He’s now appeared in parts of four different seasons for this team and has never even come close to proving that he’s a MLB quality arm. He’s finally out of options but is nowhere close to enough service time to hit arbitration,
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Alvarez, Stuart, Watkins
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Lord, Alvarez, Luckham
Changes since end of last month: Lord got hurt and is on the DL, so they replaced him with Watkins, who’s been a LR/SS all year. Luckham struggled upon his promotion so he got sent back to AA, replace with new acquisition Stuart.
Rotation Observations: Lord was solid in 3 starts (1.46 ERA) then hit the DL. He got hit by a comebacker on his pitching hand and was put on the DL 8/20/24. We’re nearly at two weeks now. Alvarez has a nice month: 5 starts, 3.14 ERA and sub 1.00 whip. I wonder what he has to do to earn a call-up. Scouting reports aren’t very flattering: BA has him 45s across the board and describes him basically as a “left hander with 91 and a funky delivery.” Still, wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot. Rutledge continues to be awful. Luckham had a 12 ERA in a couple of starts before being replaced by Stuart, who has a 7.88 ERA in his first two starts that was probably a little unlucky (he has a 1.00 whip and a .179 BAA in those two starts, so it’s almost like every single guy who got on base managed to score). We’ll see what he can do with the remaining couple of weeks. Ward had a 4.44 ERA with way too many walks. Lastly Watkins had a decent month, as one would expect for a 32-yr old in AAA.
Next guy to get Promoted: None deserve it, and Lord’s injury takes him out of the running.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: We were right on Luckham getting the boot back to AA last month.
Bullpen comments: Brzycky and Ribalta both had solid August numbers and both have been called up. Willingham, who is on the 40-man, also had decent Aug numbers and may get another shot. Tim Cate had a nice month, even if he’s had a crummy year.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Solesky, Lara, Luckham, Saenz, Shuman
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart (with two spot starts from Reyes)
Changes since end of last month: Cuevas, after months of being the worst starter of the group, was taken out of the rotation and put in the bullpen. Luckham got promoted, then demoted right back. Stuart got promoted as he should have with a 27/5 K/BB ratio in 16 August innings and was replaced with Saenz, finally back off the injured list. Lastly Theophile got hurt and went straight to the 60 day/full season injured list, not a good sign.
Rotation Observations: Stuart was unhittable in his 3 Aug AA starts; he should stick in AAA for a while. Saenz got hit very badly; 10+ ERA and a 2.58 ERA in August. He struggled in 15 AA starts last year and may be running out of time to stick in the rotation. Luckham’s AA starts were solid; he definitely earned his promotion, but he’s been getting hit upon his return. Shuman is finally back in AA and only had one start, so not much to go on. Solesky was decent but just has no K/9 power. Lara’s ERA is inflated compared to his peripherals: 1.09 whip, .184 BAA; that should be a sub 3 ERA.
Next guy to get Promoted: No idea. Maybe Solesky despite his lack of swing and miss. He’s 26, has solid full-season numbers. It should be Theophile, but he seems like he’s out for a while.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz; just not sure if he can cut it in AA.
Bullpen comments: Alston earned a promotion. I like Jack Sinclair’s august: 17/3 K/BB in 10 innings. Cronin is finally back in AA and had a 3.09 ERA in 10 appearances as the closer. He replaced Peterson as the closer at some point, who had an ERA in the 8s for the month.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Susana, Caceres. Tepper
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Shuman, Davis, Susana
Changes since end of last month: Shuman promoted, replaced by Caceres, who had been dropped from the rotation earlier. Also, Davis got dumped out of the rotation, replaced by the newly promoted Tepper.
Rotation Observations: Caceres, one month after getting dropped from the rotation. was the best starter in Wilmington. Cornelio put up his typical 6+ ERA month; more on him later. Susana got hit; he needs more AA time. Atencio put in another quietly good month (more on him in a moment). Tepper had a 4.50 ERA in two starts; not much to go on.
Next guy to get Promoted: Shuman finally got promoted despite getting whacked in his 3 High-A starts to start the month. I think its Atencio’s turn. He’s had a very solid High-A season all told (3.47 ERA in 18 starts) and had similar numbers in August. He’s only 22 and seems like a sneaky decent prospect for us.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Cornelio. Honestly, I don’t understand why the team sticks with this guy. I can’t remember the last time I saw a gamer with him as the starter where I said, “Oh that was a nice game for Cornelio.” No; instead its constantly 5ip, 7hits 3 walks, 5ER. (as I write this, i see that he had perhaps his best ever start as a pro on 9/1, which dropped his seasonal ERA by nearly a half a run all by itself). His career ERA is nearly 6.00 and instead of repeating low-A he got promoted up to high-A this year, where he’s continued to not be good. And it isn’t as if he has a 12 K/9 rate or anywhere near it.
Bullpen comments: The team finally promoted Cronin after my explicit comments last month. There isn’t much else good to write home about from this bullpen.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Romero, Sykora, Clemmey
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Tepper, Romero, Sykora ( plus a slew of spot starts from random players and two Saenz rehab starts)
Changes since end of last month: Tepper got promoted, replaced by trade acquisition Clemmey. The team also just put Polanco on the restricted, list, so not sure what’s going on there. So as of this moment there’s only 4 starters on the roster; Polanco’s last turn was taken by lefty reliever Angel Roman.
Rotation Observations: Here’s Sykora’s August numbers: 6 starts, 30 1/3 innings. 0.88 ERA (3 earned runs in 30 innings). In those 30 innings he gave up 12 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 0.52. He had 48 strikeouts to go against 4 walks in those 30 innings. Uh, why is he still in Low-A? Nobody else worth talking about right now: Romero has just 10 Ks in 25 innings last month, Sthele had a .297 BAA, Polanco a 1.83 whip. Clemmey is a solid prospect and had solid peripherals even if his ERA was mediocre (.188 BAA, 21/12 K/BB in 19IP).
Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. should have been promoted last month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Probably Sthele, who we’ve mentioned in this spot in the past. 22yrs old in low-A just not getting guys out. 12th rounder in 2023 so not a ton invested.
Bullpen comments: Speaking of Roman; he’s been unhittable since getting bumped up from FCL. The team called up a couple of 2024 draftees in Alexander Meckly and Merrill Beeker, but neither are being used as starters right now.
Rookie/FCL Nationals: finished on 7/25/24, so no August games.
Rookie/DSL Nationals
Rotation as of 8/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Feliz, Reyes, Lunar
Rotation as of 7/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
Changes Since last Month: Vera was mercifully pulled from the rotation after walking 2 guys an inning, replaced by Lunar. Thomas was pulled from the rotation as well, replaced with Reyes’ opener performances.
Rotation Observations: De La Cruz had 3 Aug starts and saw his already bad ERA increase. Feliz only made one start on 8/5 and hasn’t appeared since; that’s not good considering that he was easily the best arm in the DSL this year. Reyes got three short “opener” starts of 2-3 innings and was decent. Reynoso got two starts and got shelled. Lunar had a 4-inning no hit performance and a 5-inning start with just one hit allowed.
Next guy to get Promoted: Feliz, maybe Lunar
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Vera.
Bullpen comments: Probably the best bullpen arm is Jose Sanchez, not much else to report.
That’s it for August 2024. We’ll probably wait until the end of the minor league season in the early parts of September to do an end of season review.
Could Lord be the next guy promoted to the majors?? Photo via threads.com IG
Here’s the End of July 2024 check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to FCL.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Changes sinceend of last Month: None. Same five guys, for better or worse.
We did however get some distressing news on the two guys we thought we’d have back by now, Grey and Cavalli. Grey was yanked after a dip in velocity in a rehab start, given another MRI and he’s got a UCL issue. He thought maybe it was just a brace insertion, but on July 25th he got Tommy John surgery. The timing of the injury is bad; he’ll miss the rest of 2024 and probably is no guarantee to even see 2025 on the field. Meanwhile, Cavalli got the flu, which started him back to ground zero in terms of his rehab, then he suffered a “dead arm” after coming back, and we havn’t seen him in weeks. Um, its now August 2024, he had the surgery in March of 2023. So we’re now at 16 months post surgery and counting. So much for a 12-month recovery period. Lastly, we’ve heard jack and sh*t about Williams, our most valuable 2024 trade piece lit on fire after his flexor issue. The last update I’ve seen as July 19th “light throwing” activities. Great, so he’ll be ready for October.
Rotation Observations: So, as for the guys we DO have in the rotation: Irvin took a step back in June, going 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA. Corbin blew up after a couple of acceptable months, pitching to a 7.27 ERA last month. Gore had an uncharacteristically awful July, walking 16 in 26 innings and going 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA. Not good. Parker? Same story: he went from a 3.15 ERA last month to a 7.89 ERA this month. Lastly we have the new guy Herz, who improved a ton from June and threw 5 starts at a 4.04 ERA with a 26/5 K/BB ratio last month. Interesting.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: So, Yes I know Corbin is awful, but this team seems hell bent on having him soak up innings until his $35M/year contract is over. If someone was healthy tomorrow, I think Herz may still make way, but on the other hand his promising July tells me he’s improving and should be given more time. However, none of our 3 injured starters is seemingly coming back any time soon, and as we’ll see in the next section, nobody from AAA is pushing for a promotion right now.
Bullpen comments: Two of our best relievers were moved in Harvey and Floro. We wish we could have moved Finnegan, but an ill-timed blow-up inning likely scared off the suiters (Baltimore? Philadelphia?) and cost us some more prospects (at least he’s still under Arb control for another year). In the place of the departed guys, the team added wavier claim Salazar and brought up newly converted reliever Adon. Get ready for some reliever blowups the rest of the way: Rainey has an ERA in the 6s, Ferrer in the 7s, and the whole middle relief corps (JBarnes, Garcia, Adon, Salazar) are middling 4.00 something ERA guys who are all the definition of a replacement level arm.
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Lord, Alvarez, Luckham
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Rutledge, Watkins, Ward, Lord, Alvarez
Changes since end of last month: Watkins made 3 starts then hit the DL, replaced by AA-call up Luckham, who joins Lord and Alvarez as 3/5ths of the AAA rotation promoted up in the last couple of months.
Rotation Observations: We’ll go in order of seniority. Rutledge was awful in July, has been awful all season, and it seems to me the scouting reports on the guy are holding true; he’s a 2pitch guy who needs to be moved to relief. Ward made 4 starts to a 4.04 ERA (which … normally you’d say, oh that’s not so bad), but he only threw 17.2 innings in those four starts and he managed to walk 17 in those 17.2 innings. This team wasted a roster spot on him all year last season to see what they’ve got: I’ll tell you what you’ve got: a 27yr old guy who may have been a promising starter once, but i’m not sure what you have now. Alvarez’s foray into AAA has not been good: 13ip, only 7 punch-outs and he’s very hittable (.351 BAA). The 2023 Nats minor league pitcher of the year who appears on almost zero prospect lists may be exhibiting why: its likely AA was the limit of his competence. Luckham’s first two AAA starts have been blow-outs: he doesn’t seem ready. Which leaves us with Lord: the 18th rounder who’s now a 24yr old in AAA holding his own. He threw 5 starts, 3.86 ERA, solid K/BB numbers, looks like he belongs. Amazing. He was the 531st player drafted in 2022, a college reliever out of a middling baseball school.
Next guy to get Promoted: Amazingly, its Lord on merit. No, i don’t think they’re in a hurry to promote him, but he’s most deserving. Certainly our 40-man starters aren’t.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: I think Luckham is overmatched right now and goes back down when an opportunity presents or when Watkins comes back from DL. Alvarez is also on short leash. If it were me i’d look at both Rutledge and Ward in the bullpen, but no reason to do that now unless a slew of AA starters make noise to move up.
Bullpen comments: Salazar already got called up; he didn’t give up a run in AAA after his acquisition. La Sorsa continues to pitch well in Rochester and looks like he deserves a promotion; he’s on the 40-man (post-publish correction; he was outrighted last Dec) so maybe if the Nats get tired of Rainey sucking they’ll give him another shot. Rico Garcia is a 30yr old closer in AAA who we got as a MLFA from Oakland; he was solid in July and may merit a 9/1 callup to see if he’s worth extending.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart (with two spot starts from Reyes)
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile (plus a couple Grey rehab starts and one Reyes spot-start)
Changes since end of last month:Luckham promoted, replaced in the rotation by Reyes spot starts until we acquired Stuart in trade for Winker.
Rotation Observations: New acquisition Stuart got the 7/31 start; gave up 3 runs in 5 innings for his new team and reportedly sat 97. Ok, that sounds good. Solesky continues to keep the ERA down but have crummy peripherals (11 Ks in 26 ip) and i’m beginning to suspect the team doesn’t really plan on doing much with him. Lara: 4 starts, 2.63 ERA but interestingly just 10 Ks in 24ip. Great that Lara (just 21) is more than holding his own in AA but where’d his strikeouts go? The ERA seems like a mirage, since his BAA is in the upper .280s Theophile looks decent: 4 starts, 3.18 ERA, but i’d like to see him go deeper in games (just 17 IP in those 4 starts). Lastly we have Cuevas, who had a 6.75 ERA in July, which is about in line with his season ERA. His peripherals showed he was probably a little unlucky this month, so the team will continue to run with him.
From the DL; we saw some rehab starts from Saenz this month; if he comes back someone likely makes way. No idea what is going on with Henry. Lucas Knowles got put on the full-season DL which usually means “major arm injury.”
Next guy to get Promoted: Dare I say Lara? They’d never push a 21yr old to AAA, not given that the big club is 12 games under .500 and tanking fast. Solesky continues to be too old for AA and in need of a challenge, but I wonder if the team thinks he could survive in AAA given his lack of K rate.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Continues to be Cuevas. But they’ve stuck with him all this time with an ERA in the 6s so I can’t see them making a rotation change here.
Bullpen comments: Grissom was promoted earlier this season and he’s pushing for another one; he had 8 appearances and gave up just 5 hits and zero runs in July. Brzycky is back and continues to be a K machine: 13 in 9 innings since returning from a long DL stint. Remember, he’s on the 40-man so the team likely bumps him up to AAA soon.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Shuman, Davis, Susana
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Shuman (plus a couple rehab starts from Cavalli and Brzycky)
Changes since end of last month: Caceres, Young bumped out of rotation, replaced by the promotions for Davis and Susana.
Rotation Observations: Shuman continued to confound this observer as to why he’s still in High-A: he’s 26, has little trouble getting these guys out, and should be in AA. 2.40 ERA for the month to go with his CAREER 3.21 ERA in the minors. Atencio was solid this month: 1.82 ERA even if his peripherals made that figure probably a little lucky. Caceres and Young both had ERAs in the 6s, earning their fates to be dropped out of the rotation and into dreaded LR/SS territory, but this was a long time coming for Caceres in particular. Susana was fantastic in his High-A debut; 3 starts, sub 1.00 whip, 2.40 ERA. Can’t ask for more than that out of the 20 year old. Newly promoted Davis only got one start. Lastly we come to Cornelio, who had an ERA in the 7s for the month, a 5.76 ERA for the season, and a 5.21 ERA for his career. I’m beginning to wonder what the team sees here. He had similarly mediocre numbers all last year, but got promoted anyways, and now continues to post crummy numbers the next level up. He was a 7th rounder with a decent bonus but nothing massive, but the team gives him chances like he’s a 7-figure guy. Weird.
Next guy to get Promoted: Shuman. He’s 26, should be in AA at least, and has a career minor league ERA in the mid 3s. (I did not change a word of this from last month’s post).
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Caceres; 24, almost no IFA bonus, can’t get guys out in Low-A, a 2017 signee who’s near the end of his tenure here. He may make way if someone needs a promotion from Fredericksburg. After that, Cornelio.
Bullpen comments: Here’s Cronin’s line for the month: 8 2/3rds innings, 3 hits, 0 walks 1 run allowed and 13 strikeouts. As a 26yr old former 40-man member. What the f*ck is he still doing in High-A?? I wrote nearly this exact same thing last month too. Past Cronin, there’s a slew of relievers who are unhittable in Wilmington right now: Miguel Gomez 13/1 K/BB ratio last month, Richard Gausch had a 0.88 whip last month, Chance Huff had a 0.84 ERA. So lots of options to move up if the need arises.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Tepper, Romero, Sykora ( plus a slew of spot starts from random players and two Saenz rehab starts)
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Sykora, Susana, Davis, Sthele, Polanco (plus 4 Shuman rehab starts and 1 Grey start)
Changes since end of last month: Susana and Davis promoted, replaced by Tepper and Romero (who started the year in low-A but was demoted early and has been in FCL most of season). Diaz had a couple of spot starts and was released.
Rotation Observations: Davis and Susana were (finally) promoted after both showing they had nothing left to prove in low-A. Sthele is now doing the same, giving up just 2 ER in 21 July innings. Sykora’s month might be even more impressive: in 4 starts he struck out 31 guys in 17 innings and had a .136 BAA. Finally, a high-round prep draftee who’s performing. Tepper only has one start so SSS, and Romero just got promoted and didn’t pitch in July. Polanco has struggled and may be the one who makes way for newly acquired Alex Clemmey, though they could also go to a 6-man rotation and keep giving the likes of Tepper and Romero starts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Is it Sykora? I’m not sure what else he needs to do to show he can get low-A hitters out, and they just promoted Susana who is of similar age and had similar low-A numbers. Why not? Push him up for the last month of the season.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele has bought himself some time with a solid July but has generally struggled this season. As noted above, I think Polanco makes way for Clemmey in the short term. Polanco was an IFA signing in 2021 with such a small bonus figure that it wasn’t reported, meaning that the team has almost nothing “invested” in him, and often these kinds of data points come into play with these decisions.
Bullpen comments: Matthew Bollenbacher’s month stood out to me: 16 Ks/ 0 walks in 10 innings. So did Merrick Baldo, 14/3 K/BB in 8ip and zero runs allowed.
Rookie/FCL Nationals
Rotation as of 7/25/24 (end of FCL Season): Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, and Saenz rehab
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, and rehabbers
Changes since end of last month: None really. The FCL rotation was basically the same all year.
Rotation Observations: Romero crushed it in July; 20/2 K/BB in 14ip, which is why they promoted him to Low-A the moment the FCL season ended. Colon and Portorreal also had nice ending months, each with an ERA in the 1s. Sanchez struggled a bit, probably costing himself a shot at a promotion this season. Interestingly Aldo Ramirez, coming back from a long-injury, is now technically assigned to FCL and had an era in the 10s for July, which included one spot start. I’m afraid he just hasn’t come back from injury and may be a lost cause.
Next guy to get Promoted: Romero already promoted.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody pitched egregiously bad to get cut here.
Bullpen comments: The best relievers from the month was Angel Roman, and he was already promoted to Low-A.
Rookie/DSL Nationals
Rotation as of 7/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
Rotation as of 6/30/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Thomas, Feliz (with Hernandez getting a couple spot starts)
Rotation Observations: MILB’s dsl nats stats page can’t do splits, and i’m probably already at 3000 words, so we’ll use full season stats to discuss. The DSL rotation has been relatively stable all year, with just 7 guys getting all the starts. And we’re seeing some widly crazy stat lines. The Ace continues to be Feliz, who has a 48/10 k/BB and a sub 3 era for the season. Jhoan Thomas has 24 ks and 24 walks in 26IP yet somehow has a sub 4 era. Now for the funny lines: Vera has 35 walks and 17Ks in 19ip. Yeah, that’s a little wild. De La Cruz Reynoso all have middling ERAs in he 6s with bad peripherals. Not much else to write home about with the 2024 DSL rotation. Hernandez seems to have been removed from the rotation with this 26 walks in 13ip, and Reyes has 5 starts but only 6IP so he’s being used as an opener of sorts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Feliz.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Vera. Just can’t walk 2 guys an inning.
Irvin has really stepped up for the Nats. (Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post)
Here’s the End of June 2024 check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to FCL.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Williams
Changes sinceend of last Month: Our 2024 Ace Trevor Williams hit the D/L with a right arm elbow flexor strain, the same injury that’s kept our opening day starter Josiah Grey on the D/L for 2 months. Basically destroying his trade value. Grey and Cavalli continue rehabbing from injuries, at various cadences that don’t necessarily inspire confidence of them coming back anytime soon. Grey may seem close, but Cavalli doesn’t.
Rotation Observations: Jake Irvin has suddenly turned into an ace. He went 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.1 whip in six starts in June. Basically inline with his performance in May. After his middling May, Parker had a stellar June for a rookie; 6 starts, 3.15 ERA, 1.136 whip. Gore, who was so good in the first two months, had a struggle of a month of June: five starts, 5.13 ERA and a 1.6 whip. Corbin wasn’t that terrible last month, pitching to a 4.71 ERA and lowering his whip three tenths of a point. Lastly, Williams’ replacement Herz has had an up and down month being thrown into the fire, pitching 5 times to a 5.48 ERA and a 1.50 whip, but having one stellar 13-K start in Miami where he gave up just one hit (it was Miami, after all).
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Herz, then Corbin. Whoever is ready first from (in likely order of return) Grey, Cavalli, and Williams), we’ll probably demote Herz first, then cut ties/move to the bullpen Corbin. When the third guy is ready, then the hard decision has to be made; by that point perhaps Williams will still be on the D/L or will have magically come back and can be traded.
Bullpen comments: We have four relievers who are excellent, and who should fetch prospects at the deadline (Finnegan, Law, Harvey, Floro). We have three guys who have been awful and are probably on there b/c the AAA 40-man relievers we have aren’t that great either (Rainey, Weems, and Garcia). There’s very little middle ground
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Rutledge, Watkins, Ward, Lord, Alvarez with Grey rehab starts
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Adon, Rutledge, Watkins, Herz, Ward
Changes since end of last month: Herz rightfully earned the promotion up to the majors and was replaced with Alvarez. Then, the team could no longer ignore Lord’s AA performance and promoted him up, replacing (finally) Adon in the rotation.
Rotation Observations: Rutledge’s June performance was awful: 7.82 ERA and a 1.70 whip. Ward was even worse: a 2.20 whip, 7.65 ERA and 21/20 K/BB. Watkins had a decent month as the resident 30-something MLFA innings eater guy who probably has no shot at a call-up and is playing out the string. As noted above, Adon has mercifully been put in the bullpen in the last couple of weeks, perhaps recognition that he’s never going to cut it as a starter, that we now have plenty of starter options, and that his only shot to use his 4th option year is going to be as a bullpen member. Alvarez’ AAA debut has not gone well; he’s only got 5 Ks in four starts and 14 innings. That’s not going to cut it. Lastly, Lord’s only got one start in as of this writing and it was a 5ip 2ER game, not a bad start. Maybe Lord is turning into our next guy like Parker, who comes up with little fan fare and shows success.
Next guy to get Promoted: I was right on Herz being next up last month. There’s not a single one of these starters who’s earned a promotion this month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Adon already presumably out of the rotation, you have to think Ward is next. We have to get better production out of these two 40-man slots.
Bullpen comments: La Sorsa has been lights out; 1.26 ERA in 11 appearances this month. That’s good because his lefty reliever competition in the majors (Robert Garcia) has been awful. Tim Cate has been impressive this month too; 16/3 K/BB in 10ip last month. New signing Eduardo Salazar has been solid and could be a RHP option once rosters expand and/or we trade some guys. Both Zeuch and Gsellman were mercifully cut mid month. The final 40-man guy on the roster Willingham had a near 9.00 ERA month.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile (plus a couple Grey rehab starts and one Reyes spot-start)
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Alvarez, Henry, Lord
Changes since end of last month: Three big changes: Henry hit the D/L (replaced by Indy-league MLFA signing Solesky), Alvarez was promoted (and replaced by Lara), and Lord was promoted (replaced by Theophile).
Rotation Observations: Luckham is probably the new “ace” of the rotation and pitched like it in June: 3.71 ERA in 5 starts with solid peripherals. Cuevas is now #2 in seniority and was awful: 7.52 ERA going 0-5 in five starts. Solesky’s debut has been solid: 3.42 ERA in two starts and two relief appearances. Lara’s debut in AA as a 21 yr old has gone ok for his age and experience: 5 starts, 4.67 ERA, 1.56 whip. You couldn’t ask for more out of Theophile: 2 starts, 10ip, and just 2 runs given up so far. That’s amazing considering that he had an ERA in the 6s last month in High-A.
Next guy to get Promoted: Maybe Solesky? He’s way too old for AA (26) and could slot into either their rotation or their bullpen. After that perhaps Luckham, who has turned around his season with a solid stretch.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Cuevas. He’s now 1-8 with an ERA in the 6s for the season. He’s young yes, but he’s not getting any better.
Bullpen comments: there’s a lot of solid performers in this bullpen. Romero (already promoted once this year) didn’t give up an ER all month and had a 16/2 K/BB. Acosta? 19Ks in 11IP. Sinclair gave up 1run in 11ip. Peterson: 1.93 ERA. Tyce? same: 1.93 ERA in June. Opponents aren’t getting any breaks from the AA bullpen right now.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Shuman (plus a couple rehab starts from Cavalli and Brzycky)
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Theophile
Changes since end of last month: Just one: Theophile promoted, replaced with Shuman, who finally returns from injury.
Rotation Observations: Atencio and Caceres both had similar months: kind of middling ERAs in the mid-to-upper 4s, not a lot of K power, and bloated Whips. Nothing impressive really. This franchise continues to stick by Cornelio as a starter despite him basically being the same guy his entire career: 5.something era, mid 1.50whip. Luke Young’s ERA wasn’t impressive but at least he’s not walking many guys (5bb in 25 ip). Shuman’s got just one start under his belt; 3 1/3ip, 1 ER.
Next guy to get Promoted: Shuman. He’s 26, should be in AA at least, and has a career minor league ERA in the mid 3s.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Probably Caceres at this point: he’s 24, not really showing he’s got it. They also have very little invested in the guy, as a 2017 IFA signee who probably got $10k or less (since his actual signing bonus was not denoted).
Bullpen comments: Matt Cronin, who sits in High-A for some dumb reason, is basically unhittable there and provides no value. Brzycky has gotten 10 rehab innings in here and looks great, that’s a great sign for him coming back from TJ.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Sykora, Susana, Davis, Sthele, Polanko (plus 4 Shuman rehab starts and 1 Grey start)
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Sykora, Polanco
Changes since end of last month: Bryan Sanchez went to the D/L, and the team seems to have gone to a conventional 5-man rotation.
Rotation Observations: The Low-A rotation looks awesome. Lets start with our biggest prospects: Susana gave up just 2 ER in 20 innings across 4 starts. Unfortunately, his earlier months were so bad he still has a 4.91 seasonal ERA. Point is, he was beyond lights out: 32/8 K/BB in 20 june innings. Has he finally figured it out? 2023 big-time draft prospect Travis Sykora was excellent in June: 4 starts, 2.41 ERA and 24/6 K/BB in 18ip. That’s awesome to see, since we’re so used to seeing these prep draftees suck. However, neither of these two guys were as good as Polanco and Davis last month, who put up sub 2.00 ERAs. Only Sthele continues to struggle, with an 8.00 ERA on the month and a 7.28 ERA for the season.
Next guy to get Promoted: Has to be Davis, who was the “next guy” last month too. He’s the oldest at 24, an 11th rounder with decent bonus $$ investment, and just finished off a stellar June.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: As it was last month, and the month before, Sthele.
Bullpen comments: The closer Arguellas pitched a shutout for the month. Diaz at 27 inexplicably remains in low-A confounding hitters 5-6 years his junior. Mason Denaburg actually looks competent as a middle reliever in Low-A now, but at 24 probably should be plying his trade at the higher levels.
Rookie/FCL Nationals
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, and rehabbers
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, “Farias”
Changes since end of last month: Very little actually; the four main guys listed here all seem to be in the “FCL rotation” and then the 5th starts have been taken by a litany of rehabbers like Farrell, Amaral, and Aldo Ramirez.
Rotation Observations: Colon: awful. 9.28 ERA, 2.72 whip and 9/13 k/BB in 10 innings. Portorreal: mediocre: 5.71 ERA in 4 starts. Romero: very solid: 2.08 ERA in four appearances. Sanchez: lights out: 0.73 ERA in 12 innings. This is great for Sanchez b/c he was awful last month.
Next guy to get Promoted: If Sanchez continues to pitch like this, as a 21yr old he should move up. Romero is 20 and he’s also a candidate.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Maybe Colon, but honestly these 10ip samples wildly fluctuate with one bad start.
Bullpen comments: The two best bullpen arms from June already got promoted up to low-A (Arguellas and Otanez. There’s not much else noteworthy.
Rookie/DSL Nationals
Rotation as of 6/30/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Thomas, Feliz (with Hernandez getting a couple spot starts)
Rotation Observations: Unlike the 2023 DSL Nats, there’s some promise here already. Feliz (technically a IFA23 signing but he never pitched last year) has a 27/3 K/BB ratio in his 20 ip with a sub 2.00 ERA and a 0.70 whip. He’s looked great. Thomas (a 17yr old 24IFA) had an intriguing opening month: 1.98 ERA but he had 11 walks in 13ip and has some control issues to work on. De La Cruz and Reynoso were middling, 6.00 ERA types with nothing special to note right now. Vera and Hernandez? awful. Vera had a whip north of 3.00, and a 18/9 BB/K ratio in 11ip. Hernandez was even worse: 17 walks and 4Ks in 8ip. Wow.
Next guy to get Promoted: Feliz
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Hernandez; at age 20 he’s been awful and is too old. he’s not long for the league.
Bullpen comments: too early to tell really; most of the relievers only have a handful of innings.
DJ Herz is making some noise in AAA; could he get his MLB debut soon? Photo via Wash Post
Here’s the End of May check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to FCL.
Each team will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Parker, Corbin
Changes sinceend of April: none. Grey remains on the DL, but Cavalli has started rehabbing.
Rotation Observations: We continue to get unexpectedly solid production out of the rotation, given the fact that our opening day starter and #1 pitching prospect remain on the DL. Williams continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league, with a seasonal ERA of 2.22 and and even better 1.60 ERA for his six starts in May. He’s having a dream “contract year” season and hopefully fetches us a halfway decent prospect at the trade deadline, if not sooner (more on that later). Gore continues to come into his own, putting up a 2.60 ERA in his five May starts. Irvine’s May numbers were even better. Parker came back down to earth a bit in May after his stellar debut. Only Corbin continues to be awful, but that’s not really anything that we didn’t already know. The rotation collectively is sits 3rd in fWAR and 5th in FIP, and should only get better if and when we get back Grey and Cavalli.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Corbin. Same guy as at the end of April. One has to think that Corbin’s tenure will come to an end when Grey or Cavalli is ready to come back. They just can’t keep the deadweight on the roster anymore at that point. The harder question then becomes who is the NEXT guy to make way… say Cavalli comes back and Corbin gets cut. Then who do you demote for Grey? Right now its looking like Parker, but then they’d have no LHP starters. Maybe the timing will workout with a Williams trade to make room.
Bullpen comments: The pen generally continues to be a source of strength. You can’t ask for much more. Our four leading relievers all have ERAs under 3.00, and Floro has kept his under 1.00 through May. It’s hard to get decent returns for relievers, but I hope they can cash in a couple of these guys at the trade deadline.
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Adon, Rutledge, Watkins, Herz, Ward
Changes since end of April: None. Gsellman got a couple of spot starts, and middle reliever Zeuch got one spot start in a “bullpen game,” otherwise very little change so far in AAA.
Rotation Observations: None of the five starters had an especially awesome May to be honest. The best of them was Adon, who had a 4.13 ERA for the month to lower his seasonal ERA down to 5.63. That’s good to see, since he’s holding onto a 40-man roster spot. Watkins soaked up innings and that seems to be what the 31 yr old’s role will be this year. Herz walked nearly a guy an inning but got 3 wins in 5 starts by virtue of a .182 BAA and he remains probably the best of the AAA rotation. Rutledge’s stats were meh; 4.85 ERA. 1.50 whip. Nothing impressive there, though i’ll bet he remains atop the pecking order to come up for DH spot starts. Ward really struggled in May, putting up a 6.65 ERA in five starts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Herz, as he was last month. We have a surplus of healthy starters right now so it won’t likely happen, but next opportunity i’d like to see Herz out there.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ward. He wouldn’t get cut, but I wonder how long he is for the rotation at this point. He turned 27 in January, he’s just not cutting it as a starter, and maybe he should move back to relief at some point. The team drug him all of 2023 on their active roster so they could keep him, but more and more that’s looking like it was all to save a middle reliever.
Bullpen comments: 40-man member La Sorsa had a stellar May and is a great option to call up if they need a bullpen arm. The only other 40-man arm in AAA is Willingham, who continues to be mediocre and may be in some trouble of keeping his roster spot once the team starts trading away its cache of relievers and they realize that non-40-man guys in AAA like Aldonis Medina (zero ER for the month) are worth a shot. Most of the guys in AAA bullpen had ERAs that started with a 5 or 6 for the month.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Alvarez, Henry, Lord
Changes since end of April: Lara promoted up, replacing Henry, who hit the DL. Knowles made three spot starts in May but he also sits on the DL as we speak.
Rotation Observations: The AA rotation featured several stellar performances this month. Brad Lord, who was promoted up in April, went 5-0 with a 0.87 ERA in 5 starts, including a complete game shutout. Andry Lara, also recently promoted, made three starts and went 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA. That’s awesome to see, especially since he’s just 21 and had been somewhat mired in A ball the last couple of seasons while slowly watching his prospect status wither away. Lastly, Andrew Alvarez: 6 starts, 4 wins, a CG shutout with 2.72 ERA and a sub 1.00 whip.
On the down side, Luckham isn’t getting the swing and miss he probably needs to keep moving forward, and batters hit north of .300 against him to balloon his ERA to 4.88. Same with Cuevas, who is getting shredded right now to the tune of a 7.50 ERA in May. Knowles’ stats weren’t great before hitting the DL, and Henry’s one start went just 3 innings, so not much to go on for our former top 10 prospect.
Next guy to get Promoted: Alvarez. He was last years Nats POTY in the minors, he turns 25 in a couple of weeks and he’s a lefty. Might be time to see what he can do in AAA and see if he’s anything more than an org guy. I’d say Lord based on his May, but his April was so bad that now his season numbers are just average. Plus, there’s not a lot of room on the AAA rotation right now.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham. But there’s a bit of rope here. They don’t have a ton invested in him as a 13th rounder, and he doesn’t turn 25 until the off season, but its put up or shut up time.
Bullpen comments: The bullpen just lost its best arm in Ribalta, recently promoted to AAA. Walters also got bumped up after putting up solid AA numbers. To replace them they promoted both Peterson and Grissom Jr from High-A, so too early to tell. Former closer Jack Sinclair was solid all month. Former flavor of the month Tyler Schoff got shelled this month: 6.75 ERA. Rule5 pick Daison Acosta and Holden Powell were both great out of the pen for the month and it’ll be interesting to see who gets the closer job. I’d like to see Powell (a relatively high draft pick) perform and contribute at the higher levels.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Theophile
Changes since end of April: Lara got promoted, replaced by Atencio. Cavalli is there as of 5/31 doing rehab starts and stealing starts.
Rotation Observations: Not a lot to brag about in Wilmington’s rotation in May. The best performer was the newest guy Atencio, who in 3 starts had a 3.38 ERA and 14/3 K/BB. That’s decent for the 2018 IFA signing. Cornelio continues to put up mediocre numbers: 4.44 ERA for the month. Good enough to stick around, but not to earn any promotions. Caceres and Theophile both had ERAs in the 6s, and Caceres’ K/BB was just 14/12 in 23 innings. Young’s line was pretty similar; not a ton of swing and miss.
Seth Shuman, a sneaky good starter who’s been hurt forever, is now doing rehab starts in the FCL and could return here soon, likely bumping one of the lesser performers.
Next guy to get Promoted: Nobody. Last month’s candidate Lara indeed got promoted, but nobody here is really making a case to move up. Atencio is performing the best but he just got promoted into this rotation and needs some time.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Last month was Caceres; it still is. He’s 24, too old for the level, and is just not cutting it. Theophile may start worrying too.
Bullpen comments: Several bullpen arms had solid months. Matt Cronin got popped up from XST and has been solid; well he should be, being 26 and formerly being on the 40-man roster. He needs to get back to AAA. Wander Arias, a rule5 pick this past off season, was stellar and probably should be getting moved up soon. Carlos Romero gave up just 1 run in 11 innings. There’s a lot of crooked numbers elsewhere in this pen, and If we had more healthy arms i could see some moving up.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Sykora, Polanco
Changes since End of April: Atencio promoted, replaced by Sykora and Polanco as they seem to be going to a 6-man rotation.
Rotation Observations: I’m treating this rotation as a 6-man rotation, even if what they really seem to be doing is giving certain arms a week’s rest each 6-day series. Nonetheless, we have 6 guys getting regular starts, so that’s what we’ll look at. Susana has been awful. 5 starts in May, 8.05 ERA, 1.84 whip. I’m not sure what the next step is with him, but his defenders are running out of excuses as to why he continues to underperform with triple-digit heat. Sykora’s debut so far has been great: 4.23 ERA but his peripherals are solid: 23/6 K/BB in 16IP, 1.20 ERA, .215 BAA. That’s great for our big-bonus prep draftee from last year, and its nice to see a high school Nats pick faring well. Marc Davis has had a solid May under the radar given the two higher-profile kids in this rotation.
On the down side, Travis Sthele, 12th rounder last year, has not been good. ERA north of 10, batters are hitting nearly .400 against him. Bryan Sanchez is only slightly less bad; he had an 8/14 K/BB ratio for the month but managed to keep the runs down as compared to Sthele. Polanco isn’t lighting it up in his spot starts but at least he’s not as bad as these guys.
Reminder of the Low-A DL: they almost have enough arms for TWO more rotations sitting on their DL: Amaral, Ramirez, Tepper, Aldonis, Tolman, Sullivan, Agostini, and Marquez, along with a couple middle relievers on the full season DL. That’s a lot of pitching depth. A couple of these guys are/were decent prospects too, which is one of the reasons we have so little pitching depth in our system.
Next guy to get Promoted: Davis, maybe? Sykora has the best numbers but there’s no way they’re putting him in High-A unless he nohits the league for a month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele’s days seem numbered in the rotation.
Bullpen comments: they have three guys in the back of the bullpen lighting it up right now in Bubba Hall, Thomas Schultz, and Matthew Bollenbacher. That’s a 9th rounder and two NDFAs, for you keeping score at home. Nothing like getting solid pro pitchers for $10k. Mason Denaburg has actually been serviceable this month in a long-man role: 3.78 ERA in 9 appearances. Maybe they give him another whirl in the rotation; has to be better than what they’re getting from Sthele, Sanchez, or Polanco.
Rookie/FCL Nationals
Rotation as of 5/31/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, “Farias”
Changes since End of April: none: the season started in May.
Rotation Observations: Despite it being the FCL, which normally is a playground for rehabbing players and XST stalwarts, the FCL rotation seems like it’s been pretty consistent since the season opened. A couple of the starts early on seemed like “tandem starts” where one guy went 3 innings then another guy went 3 innings, but the rotation has settled into what you see above.
So far, Colon has looked the best: 2.37 ERA albeit with not a ton of K/9 power. Portorreal’s ERA is decent but his BAA is .324; that’s not going to last. Romero’s peripherals are better than his ERA is, and lastly Sanchez has a 2.00 whip and a 9.50 ERA. Farias is in quotes as a member of the rotation b/c he made one start, got shelled, and hasn’t been seen since. His spot has been filled with rehabbers since: Brzycky, Cavalli, and Shuman have all made one start in FCL on rehab stints.
Interesting observation; on the FCL’s opening day, every single arm on the roster was an IFA. Every single one. They’ve added three MLFAs in the past couple of weeks who were domestic players, but it’s interesting to see how they’re using this roster right now. The lion’s share of the position players (14 of the 18 guys) are also IFAs. I attribute this to the fact that we don’t draft a ton of prep kids, so basically all our 2023 draft picks are starting at Low-A or higher.
Next guy to get Promoted: nobody; the two guys pitching “decent” are 18 and 19 respectively right now, and they’ll spend the whole season in the FCL.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Camilio Sanchez was an older 2022 IFA out of Panama, for not a ton of money, and he may get cut loose if he doesn’t turn it around.
Bullpen comments: All these arms are such small sample sizes (3-4IP each) its hard to make any judgements on the slew of arms in FCL.
That’s it for May 2024. Soon we’ll have the DSL roster to contend with.
Parker is the minor league success story so far in 2024. Photo via WP
Hello all. One of the recurring posts I did last year that I really enjoy doing (as long as I can find time to do it) is a monthly look at the state of the rotations of our entire system. Here we are one month in and a few turns through the rotations at all levels, and here’s the first of what hopefully is a season full of rotation (and pitching staff) recaps for the Nats big club and its farm teams.
Each team will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Rotation as of 4/30/24: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Parker, Corbin
Changes since opening day: Grey on DL, replaced by Parker
Rotation Observations: Opening day starter Josiah Grey had two ineffective starts (8.1 IP and 13 runs allowed) before heading to the DL with a scary sounding “Flexor Strain” elbow issue that often is followed up by the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Adon got a spot start earlier in the month, but the timing of Grey’s injury with Adon’s workload meant that the team gave Mitchell Parker the call up, and boy has he delivered. In three starts he got wins over basically the two best teams over the last decade or so, has kept the ball in park, and has kept his walks down. Basically everything he didn’t really do in the minors. Crazy. Meanwhile, Trevor Williams has gone from 5th starter competition in spring training to basically our most competent starter: 5 starts, 2.70 ERA, and a FIP that matches his ERA. Gore has also looked solid, with peripherals better than his actual stats albeit with a few more baserunners per inning. Meanwhile, Corbin has done what we though he was going to do (6.82 ERA), as has Irvin (95 ERA+, basically a 4th or 5th starter performance). Irvin’s FIP is lower than his ERA, indicating that he’s been a little unlucky, especially when looking at his WHIP (1.18) and his BABIP (.303; not egregious but a little elevated).
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Corbin. it’s unclear how long Grey will be out, but he’s already doing 120 feet of throwing and may be doing bullpen sessions soon. That sounds to me like end of May return, which may (finally) spell doom for Corbin here. The only other possibility would be to send Irvin down, but that’d be really difficult to defend if Corbin has an ERA approaching 7.00.
Bullpen comments: the pen has generally been great. They blew Corbin’s great start last week, but overall has been solid. Tanner Rainey may be in trouble and is basically at the top of my “next guy to get cut” list right now. Same with Weems, who just is putting too many runners on base. Lastly MLFA Matt Barnes may also have a short leash, with middling numbers and no organizational history. Problem is, who replaces them? When we get to AAA, there’s not a ton of obvious candidates to come up b/c our 10 day DL is pretty full and the candidates aren’t exactly lighting it up down there.
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 4/30/24: Adon, Rutledge, Watkins, Herz, Ward
Changes since opening day: Parker promoted up, replaced by MLFA long reliever/innings eater Watkins (Gsellman also got a couple of spot starts in April)
Rotation Observations: Herz has looked good, which is super promising for a team that’s lacking reliable starter prospects. Parker’s promotion over Adon and Rutledge, both of whom had MLB time last year, can be pretty easily explained by their performance so far in 2024: Terrible. Adon, with the benefit of a 4th option, has an ERA in the 8s and a whip in the 2s. He’s taken a step back from his 2022/2023 AAA numbers, and I don’t think he’s coming back anytime soon. Meanwhile, Rutledge has also taken a step back so far in 2024, averaging both a walk and a hit per inning while seeing his ERA bloat up to near 9.00. Ward has struggled in his conversion back to starter from sitting in the Nats pen all last year, and it makes me wonder if the team has him in the right role. I mean, he’s now 27, he’s in AAA trying to get stretched out, he wasn’t great in the pen last year … is he salvageable? Do you abandon his rotation presence and try to get him back as a useful middle reliever?
Both Watkins and Gsellman are what they are: 30yr old MLFA veteran arms who are hanging out to try to get another shot at the bigs, but who probably just sit in AAA all year and soak up innings while waiting for prospects to arrive.
Next guy to get Promoted: Herz. On the 40-man, easy promotion to cover for the next rotation injury.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Adon. he’s eating up a 40-man spot, is now, what, 9th or 10th on the starter pecking order, he’s on his last option, and he’s not getting better. He’ll pass through waivers easily and get outrighted, so don’t be surprised if the next roster move is him. The rest of the starters in AAA aren’t really options to “demote” in that they either make it at AAA or they’re out of the rotation/gone.
Bullpen comments: Willingham (on the 40-man) has been good and may be a decent replacement for one of the faltering MLB relievers. La Sorsa (also on the 40-man) has not been good and is probably near the top of the DFA list. Rico Garcia has been AAA’s “closer” and looks decent. Adonis Medina has looked solid as the 8th inning guy. TJ Zeuch? not so much. 5ip, 14runs on 15 hits. ugh.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 4/30/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Alvarez, Henry, Lord
Changes since opening day: Lord promoted up from High-A for Knowles, who I had in the opening day rotation but, based on his usage pattern from years past, probably was always going back to his LR/SS role.
Rotation Observations: All five starters have been generally good for the first month. 2023 Minor League POTY Alvarez has picked back up where he left off, albeit with some luck (he’s walked 12 guys in 18 innings). Cuevas has looked solid, which is great news in that he’s the youngest guy in the rotation at 22 and has already passed through rule-5 once. Lord’s got a 19/4 K/BB in 13 innings but is also giving up a ton of hits. Luckham’s not getting the K’s he needs and is getting by on a low BAA. Lastly there’s the “most important” arm in AA: Cole Henry. 4 starts, just 10 IP (that’s really cautious). 11/7 K/BB, but its only 10 innings, so its really SSS. I’d like to see Henry actually pitch a full game, or at least qualify for the win.
Saenz remains on the DL; he’d probably be in the rotation if he was healthy and I remain hopeful he can continue on his progress made last year.
Next guy to get Promoted: If they had to move up a starter .. i’d move up Henry. Maybe not on merit, but on talent/challenge level. None of the other starters are really making an obvious dominant statement to move up so far.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Likewise, there’s no starter who’s really needing replacement. Lord is showing himself to be rather hittable (.316 BAA) but he’s also getting a ton of K’s. This to me perhaps says “reliever.” He’s also the only starter who didn’t start the year in AA, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he got dumped back to High-A.
Bullpen comments: Tyler Schoff continues to quietly work his way up the system; he’s yet to give up a run in 8 appearances/11 IP. Closer Nash Walters is probably too old for the level, but has also yet to give up a run in 2024. Knowles has been solid as usual in his swingman role. Orlando Ribalta is a fan favorite and continues to succeed. The only bullpen arm really struggling is Holden Powell, a college closer who’s never really impressed since his 2020 Covid year drafting. We have two relatively “important arms” on the 60-day DL; Zach Brzycky had TJ mid last year and may miss most of 2024, and 2018 3rd rounder Reid Schaller (who was effective in the AA bullpen last year) is on the “full season DL” already, which may spell trouble for him b/c he’s now 27 and probably becomes a 6yr MLFA at the end of the season.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 4/30/24: Lara, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Theophile
Changes since opening day: Lord got one start then got promoted up, replaced by Caceres.
Rotation Observations: Lara, Theophile, and Young have all been fantastic four turns through the rotation, each sporting an ERA in the 1s or 2s. Lara’s got the “worst” ERA of these three but a fantastic 37/8 K/BB ratio in his 23.2 IPs as a 21yr old. After watching Lara get socially promoted and constantly be the youngest guy at the level, he’s finally getting a chance to repeat a level and so far looks great.
Caceres and Cornelio? We’ll that’s another story. Caceres is the oldest guy in the rotation and has easily the worst numbers so far; 5.17 ERA, 8/10 K/BB in 15 innings. Cornelio’s ERA is in the 6s and he has 1-1 K-BB ratio and continues to show similar production to what he had last year. His time in the rotation may be nearing an end; i was surprised he made the rotation/got promoted from his stats from last year (a 4.68 ERA and 1.70 whip in low-A) and he’s not changing many minds.
Two important starters are on the DL here: Jake Bennett and Seth Shuman. Bennett is a 2nd rounder who had TJ last September, while Shuman continues to be unlucky health wise; he missed all of 2023 and now is on the 60-day DL to start 2024; he’s got solid career minor league numbers but can’t stay healthy.
Next guy to get Promoted: Probably Lara, even though he’s the youngest. He’s repeating High-A and has a live arm, and a 14 K/9 rate can’t stay in the rotation for much longer.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Caceres; he’s just not getting enough Ks.
Bullpen comments: Their closer Todd Peterson is 6-for-6 in SVO without giving up a run. Marquis Grissom Jr. has been equally as impressive: 17/3 K/BB in 11IP. Arias, Zinn, Collins also pitching well for a solid-looking pen. I could see some promotions here soon, especially the 26-yr old Peterson, who’s way too old for High-A. Evan Lee got shredded for 9R and was released. 27-yr old 2022 Cuban IFA Danniel Diaz is struggling and may not be long for the organization. Same with his 24yr old 2022 fellow Cuban signee Marlon Perez, who has an ERA north of 9.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 4/30/24: Sthele, Sanchez, Atencio, Susana, Davis (with Sykora getting his debut on 5/1)
Changes since opening day: Sullivan out, replaced by LR/SS Atencio, with spot starts from Agostini & Polanco
Rotation Observations: So, following the Low-A rotation has been a little hectic so far in 2024. It has seen a ton of churn. Every turn through so far, we’ve replaced names in the rotation with LR/SS guys. I almost wonder if they’re doing a true 6-man rotation to cover the 6-game series the team is playing. The stalwarts though are Susana, Davis, Sanchez, and Sthele, and none of them are really pitching well. Susana continues to get lots of Ks, and give up lots of runs. Our big-armed prospect has 17/4 K/BB in 12 innings, but also has a .308 BAA and a 6.57 ERA. He’s not going anywhere of course, but it’s been a while since he put together a stretch that validated his prospect status. Davis & Sanchez have middling numbers, but decent BAAs that make me think they’ve been a little unlucky. Sthele has not looked good, striking out just 6 guys in 18 innings and four starts.
All three of the guys who i’ve got listed as “LR/Spot Starters” have better numbers than basically anyone in the rotation, and it may be just a matter of time before the likes of Tepper, Atencio, and Polanco get longer stretches in the rotation. Tepper (a 15th rounder last year) has been lights out: 20/8 K/BB in 14 long relief innings), while both Atencio and Polanco have gotten spot starts already, and i’m kind of surprised they’re not in the rotation more full time at the expense of some of these guys. Atencio in particular has 21 Ks and zero walks in 18 innings; he’s yet to walk a guy.
Two guys who were briefly in the rotation (Sullivan and Agostini) both went straight to the full-season DL. Agostini after one god-awful start, Sullivan after two solid starts. Agostini is only 19 and showed a bit of promise last year, so that’s a loss for sure. The 60-day DL already had two other guys who we would have expected to see in this year’s rotation in Tolman and Aldonis, and there’s two other starters on the 7-day right now (Amoral and Aldo Ramirez, who just can’t catch a break). That’s a lot of starters on the DL in Low-A.
Next guy to get Promoted: none of the starters are pushing for promotion; if I had to i’d move up Atencio for reasons already stated.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele or Davis. Sthele has worse performance but Davis is 24 and struggling in Low-A. That’s not boding well for Davis’ future.
Bullpen comments: Thomas Schultz has been solid as the closer. Moises Diaz has yet to really get touched in 8 relief innings. Bubba Hall has been crushing it as a 24yr old and probably needs a promotion.
There’s 12 arms on the Low-A DL right now, which is crazy. That’s an entire pitching staff. I wonder how many of those arms aren’t really “that” hurt and this is just the side effect we see of losing Short-A team. There’s not a ton of players at FCL/XST right now, so you can see what the team is preparing to do in the 2024 draft; stock XST with pitchers most likely.
Phew. There’s your April 2024 look at the pitching staffs.
Mitchell Parker made his MLB debut in rather daunting conditions and came out with the win. Photo via Washington Post
Nats prospect Mitchell Parker got the call to come up and replace starts for the injured Josiah Grey, ahead of Joan Adon and Jackson Rutledge, who are both higher on the pecking order but each of whom had issues preventing them from getting the call. Adon hasn’t been back down long enough since his 4/10/24 option (though I think an option can be cancelled with no notice in case of an injury), and Rutledge took a come-backer off the ankle, leaving him a bit day-to-day. So Parker gets the call.
And, well, he delivered. Here’s the box score. 5ip, 4hits, 2ER, 4Ks, and zero walks. 81 pitches to complete five innings, and he got yanked instead of facing 2-3-4 in the bottom of the 6th.
Ok, first the good: to this observer, he looked composed and strong. He’s a big guy; this isn’t the kind of guy who depends on whippy arm action and who you look at his mechanics and say, “yup, TJ coming.” His mechanics are like a combination of Clayton Kershaw at the beginning and Andy Pettite as he delivers (look at the above picture and tell me you don’t see Pettite). He struck out Mookie Betts twice (!). He struck out Shoehi Ohtani (!!). He kept the ball in the ballpark against one of the best lineups in the game, and he didn’t walk anyone. The big knock on Parker is his BB/9, and to not walk anyone in a MLB game where he could have been trying to pitch around guys is solid.
Pitch FX didn’t give him credit for a “fastball” all night, which seems odd b/c he definitely threw a bunch. Therefore we don’t have any velocity metrics other than my memory. I saw FBs in the 92-93 range mostly, Maybe saw a 95 peak at one point, could be wrong. That’s not bad.
Pitch FX has him with this breakdown of pitches on the night: 64% slider, 2.7% cutter, 21.6% curveball, and 10.8% split finger. Now, does he have a “slider?” I didn’t think so; i think he has a curve. The slider and curve average velocities in fangraphs are 79.8 and 78.6 respectively, so yeah that’s not a slider.
His curve looked great. Obviously; its his best pitch. The split finger had some serious movement and was described as an “out pitch” … yeah, it looked unhittable, and uncatchable.
Now for the concerning: He gave up a lot of hard contact. The Dodgers didn’t have a “soft contact” ball all night (the Nats had 28% “soft contact” by way of comparison). A lot of Parker’s outs were “line drive to LF” and “Deep fly ball caught on warning track.” So, he might have been a little lucky to not have more crooked numbers on the board.
I also feel like he had a hard time controlling the fastball in the zone (that’s the “command” portion of command and control). 81 pitches broke down to 52 strikes, 29 balls. That’s not an awful ratio, but it also was a lot of pitches to get through innings. 81 pitches through five. I mean, yes that’s a lot. I’m not sure how many pitches he had by inning, but he probably would have needed another 20 to get through the 6th, given that he was facing the heart of the order. I think we’d like to see more efficiency there; I’d like to see a starter be in the 100 range by the end of the 7th so that they could push through to a theoretical 120 pitch limit if need be to finish 8 full, then hand off to a closer. Of course, the modern game now depends so heavily on relievers that if I can get a quality start out of a guy i’m ecstatic.
All in all, a very positive debut for the guy. Can he stick around? can he give us better innings that someone like Williams or Corbin? Maybe. Lets see how it goes for the next couple cycles of the rotation.
Grey gets the opening day nod for the Nats in 2024. Photo via WP
I have somewhat of an obsession with Opening Day Starters, and have tracked them on a spreadsheet for, well, for a long time. 20 plus years. I also love Opening Day Starter Trivia, which we’ll cover here in a moment.
Now that the 2024 Opening Day is past us, and I’ve updated the XLS for this year’s starters and done some housecleaning of now-retired starters, here’s some useless Opening day starter trivia for you.
Ok, that being said, here’s some useless trivia related to Opening Day Starters:
First time Opening Day Starters for 2024: 14 of the 30, including our own Josiah Grey who takes over for Corbin, who had done the past couple. This number is down from last year’s 9 first timers, which was the lowest I had on record going back a decade. This number was artificially inflated a bit over what was expected due to spring training injuries to presumed opening day starters for teams like Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, and Sandy Alcantara.
Current active Leader of Opening Day Starts: Justin Verlander, with 12. He did 9 in Detroit, then another 3 in Houston. Others in the conversation are Kershaw (9), Scherzer (7), Julio Teheran (6), and Nola with 6 (see next)
Current Active Consecutive streak: Bieber in Cleveland with 5 consecutive opening day starts. Nola was the previous holder at 6 straight.
Current Leader of Consecutive Opening Day Starts: both Verlander and Kershaw at one point made 7 straight opening day starts for their teams, and are the current leaders in that category.
Historical records:
Most Opening Day Starts in History: Tom Seaver (16). Tied for 2nd place with 14 is Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Walter Johnson
Most Consecutive Opening Day Starts in HistoryJack Morris; all 14 of his starts were in a row, Mr. Durability.
Lastly, here’s some interesting team observations
Washington went a decade with just two different pitchers (Scherzer or Strasburg) doing the duty.
Texas, your defending WS champs: 8 different opening day starters in the last 8 years. And it’s even crazier than that: They’ve had 15 different opening day starters in the last 16 seasons, dating to 2009! Only one guy has repeated: Cole Hamels in 2016 and 2018. That’s amazing, that Texas basically hasn’t had a long-term Ace on their staff for nearly 2 decades.
Los Angeles Dodgers, despite being probably the league’s best team over the past decade or so, has had 6 different guys make their last 6 opening day starts, them the least consistent of any team. Interesting.
Other teams who have not really been able to find a consistent starter: Cincinnati: 5 straight different opening day starters. NY Mets: 4 straight different opening day starters. Baltimore: 8 different starters in the last 9 years. Tampa: 6 new in last 7 years. Angels: 7 new in last 8 years.
