One of my favorite posts every off-season is to try to guess what the 2026 rotations might look like, based on 2025 performance, who’s coming back from injury, who the team may or may not pursue in FA, and how many veteran MLFAs the teams needs to fill out our perennially empty AAA rotation. Here’s that off-season thought piece, which of course takes zero FA acquisitions or trades into account as of this date, and makes some strong assumptions on the health of some arms (as noted as we go).
So, Here’s a quick analysis of where we ended 2025 and where we might start 2026 for our entire system. In each section, i’ve got the “candidates” lined up roughly from most to least-likely to be on that team, and then those that make sense to do so are pushed down to the next level.
Yes, it’s way too early to do this. I can revisit this next Spring with updated information/transactions, then use it in early April 2026 posts when we see who the rotations are, to see how decent a job we did predicting. I’m always up for proving how bad I am at player evaluation 🙂
MLB
In House 40-man Candidates: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara, Lao, Eder (Herz, Williams)
Thoughts: Gore, assuming he doesn’t get traded, should be next year’s Opening Day starter. I’m assuming Grey is ready to go for opening day; he’ll have the entire off-season to prepare, and I can’t see any reason why he’d be delayed, even though he only got a few rehab starts in 2025. Cavalli gave the team 10 starts at a near-league average ERA+ after a long time away and had peripherals that give some hope (velocity up from 2022, Babip of .327 meaning he was a bit unlucky, etc). So, if we got Grey back to 2023 numbers when he was an All-Star, and if Gore and Cavalli pitched to their capabilities consistently, that’s a nice little 1-2-3 start to your rotation with some upside. At worse case all three are hovering around a 95-98 ERA+ as they did this year, which are all typical 3rd-4th starters. That’s the good news.
Here’s the bad news: Irvin led the league in Earned Runs and Homers allowed, and finished dead last amongst qualified starters in FIP, fWAR, and a couple other categories. Parker would have been right there with him in dead last had he gotten a few more innings. What should you do with a guy who’s the worst starter in the league? Well duh, you should put him in the bullpen. Lord’s splits as a starter were not good: his ERA was 2 full “points” higher than as a reliever, and I think he needs to go back to the pen, as much as I like his ascension story to the majors. Alvarez’s debut couldn’t have gone better, but is he a MLB starter? Nobody seems thinks so; he got almost zero prospect love in his career, and I sense he’ll be a rotation placeholder, morphing into the classical 4-A rubber-armed multi-role lefty for this team for the next few years until he runs out of minor league options, but he held his own and (for now) is probably the 4th or 5th starter in 2026.
I don’t buy Ogasawara as a MLB-capable starter; I sense he’s heading to AAA to prove (or disprove) my theory in 2026. Waiver pickup Lao actually had great AAA numbers this year as a starter and was only up in the MLB bullpen to fill a hole at the end of the season; maybe he competes for the 5th starter job next year. Same with trade acquisition Eder, though his AAA numbers weren’t nearly as good. I don’t sense Herz or Williams will be ready to go for opening day 2026; certainly not Herz, but Williams’ “brace” surgery may get him back quicker. Even if he was 100% healthy, he was abhorrent as a starter in 2025 despite his near all-star performance the first half of 2024, and I sense he should be in the bullpen going forward. So, for now they’re all out of the running.
So, what does that leave us with? Three acceptable starters and a bunch of question marks. How much is this team willing to spend on the open market? A 66-96 team is more than one Starting Pitcher away from competing, so my guess is, another mid-level $10M/year starter, open competition for the 5th starter job, hope for incremental improvements from Gore/Grey/Cavalli, and hope for some help coming up from guys who are in AA or AAA right now.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez or a spring training competition for 5th.
- Lord, Irvin, Parker to MLB bullpen
- DL: Herz, Williams
- Ogasawara, Lao in AAA rotation
- Eder in AAA bullpen
AAA
In House Candidates: Lao, Eder, Ogasawara, Solesky, Sampson, Conley, Shuman, Luckham, Cornelio, Bennett
Thoughts: First off, we have four guys likely out the door here as being one year MLFAs (Sampson, Conley) who never earned their way up, and another couple guys (Solesky and Shuman) who I believe are be at the end of their 6year runs with us (both will be 28 this offseason, both had 5+ ERAs in AAA, and both seem like they’ve done all they can done in the game). So, I’m assuming these four are gone for consideration next year, at least as starters. The whole Covid year and what it did to FAs still confuses me, so I may have it wrong here, but even if they’re still under contract, neither merits another year in the rotation based on 2025 performance.
Despite being in the MLB bullpen for most of September, Lao, Eder, and Ogasawara have been primarily starters for their minor league careers and one would think the team would want to see if they can continue. Especially Lao, who had really good AAA starting numbers in Seattle’s system before inexplicably getting waived in September. However, I could also see the argument (especially for Eder) of trying them in the bullpen. I’m not sure Luckham has what it takes to succeed as a starter, so I can see him moving into the Shuman role for next year (LR/SS).
So that leaves Lao, Cornelio, and Ogasawara returning to the AAA rotation for another year, joined by Bennett rising up, and then filled out with a MLFA signing. I can’t really see the team dumping the three vanquished starters (Lord, Parker, Irvin) to AAA. We might see Susana back earlier than expected and he could fit in here relatively soon. But opening day 2026, this makes sense.
The team also still has Lara and Adon, both former starters, and one (Lara) still with some prospect love, who pitched their way out of starter roles and who both had abhorrent numbers in the pen in 2025. Could the team return to them as starters? I don’t think so, even if we need them. We need to see if they can contribute at the MLB level out of the bullpen.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Lao, Ogasawara, Cornelio, Bennett, veteran MLFA
- MLFA/released: Solesky, Sampson, Conley, Shuman
- To the bullpen: Luckham to bullpen as Long reliever/Spot Starter, Eder to bullpen as lefty specialist.
AA
In House Candidates: Kent, Clemmey, Tolman, Choi, Atencio, Sthele (Susana, Stuart, Sykora hurt)
Thoughts: The Nats late-season promotions of basically the entire season-ending AA rotation was the latest demonstration of their typical pattern of starter handling: they like to get starters’ feet wet in the new level before the new season, so we basically already know what most of the opening day AA rotation will look like. Kent, Clemmey, and Tolman all excelled in High-A this year, earned promotions, and struggled in short AA stints. They make perfect sense to start in AA, though Tolman seems to be more suited at this point as a multi-role reliever, so I’m projecting him to the pen. Atencio sat the entire 2025 season on the AA D/L: He was assigned to Harrisburg on Opening Day, then hit the DL before he could make a start. If he’s ready to go for opening day 2026, then he’s here. He was already planned on being part of the 2025 AA rotation, so I’d imagine he’ll come right back here when healthy. If not, maybe we’re pushing Tolman back into the rotation.
Choi, the 2024 minor league rule5 pickup, was up and back from AAA without holding onto his spot and makes sense to start in AA again. I’d imagine he’d make sense to start in the rotation until Susana is ready to go: if Susana is ready opening day, then we have to make a decision on one of Choi, Sthele, or Atencio.
When Susana is ready to go, you either push Choi to bullpen, demote Atencio, or send Susana straight to AAA. I mean, why not? He had 11 AA starts this year and struck out 70 in 47 innings; what exactly does he have left to prove there? I’m sure AAA could find room (Ogasawara to bullpen, or something).
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Kent, Clemmey, Choi, Sthele, Atencio
- D/L: Susana, Stuart, Sykora
- To the Bullpen: Tolman as LR/SS
High-A
Candidates: Randall, Garcia, Meckley, Swan, Linan, Polanco, Tepper, Tejeda, Sales
Thoughts: Last year it seemed like Low-A was the place where we’d have a traffic jam; 2026 will be High-A. I count 9-10 legitimate candidates for the High-A roster next year. Lets talk about them.
Randall only had 16 low-A starts before getting pushed up to High-A and traded to us, but was also a 2024 3rd rounder from a decent baseball school (San Diego), so I can’t see him going back down; he will be in High-A for sure. Garcia got solid 2024 draft bonus and dominated Low-A before his promotion: he’s guaranteed to be in this rotation again in 2026 based on his “investment.” Meckley is kind of like Garcia but lesser on all counts; less draft bonus, lesser performance; I think he’s a victim of numbers and heads to the bullpen. Swan started this season in LA’s High-A team, finished it in ours, and showed basically the same stuff year long: good arm but wild. I think he repeats High-A but could also get socially promoted if a need arises given. He could also go into the pen and transition to a high K reliever.
Linan only gave us one High-A start before hitting the DL: he had the best numbers of the three trade acquisitions for their prior teams and probably will be one of the first to move up. But what was his injury? I’m putting either Linan on the opening-day DL, based on ending 2025 on the DL. Post publish update: Thanks to commenter Will for pointing this out: Linan has been put on the AFL roster and is pitching in Arizona, so therefore we can assume his injury was minor. I’m revamping the below prediction as a result.
Polanco just turned 24 and just finished a full season making 23 starts for Low-A; he’s moving up, with nothing left to prove in Low-A. He’s gonna either sink or swim in High-A. Tepper spent entire 2025 on the DL and his usage has been all over the road; I’m not sure he’s ready to be a starter, so I’m guessing he goes to the pen. Tejeda suddenly stopped pitching on August 3rd, but was a gun-slinging 6′ 8″ effective starter before that; i’m hoping nothing bad happened, and with Linan confirmed healthy i’ll hedge and start Tejeda on the DL. Trade acquisition Sales finished off a great year in Low-A, pitching well for both his old and new teams despite being “just” a 10th rounder; he’s solved Low-A and has to be here.
I could make the argument that Randall is less effective than Swan and those two switch places. Or, you could look at Swan’s K/9 rate and think ‘high end closer’ and put him in the pen.
If Linan is healthy, what happens? He’s a bit young yet for AA and definitely needs more High-A time, so perhaps he pushes Tejeda to the bullpen. Or, perhaps Tejeda is still hurt from whatever injury he sustained on or about August 3rd. But for now, here’s what i’m thinking:
With Linan confirmed healthy, but Tejeda not necessarily, I’m putting Linan in rotation and Tejeda on DL to start 2026. If Tejeda is indeed healthy … then someone has to head to the pen, because I think Tejeda needs to start for now. I think if this comes to pass, you’re moving Polanco to the bullpen.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Randall, Garcia, Polanco, Linan, Sales
- D/L: Tejeda
- To the Bullpen: Meckley, Tepper, Swan
Low-A
Candidates: Sullivan, Romero, Johnson, Agostini, Farias, Feliz plus 2026 college draftees Tonghini, Maddox, Moore, Biven, Huesman, Puk
Thoughts:
Sullivan, the 2023 draftee, missed basically a year and a half, but has more or less dominated Low-A in the 9 cumulative starts he’s made there. He’ll turn 24 in May of next year and really does no good in Low-A, but there’s just too many arms so he starts in Low-A again. He returns. Same with Johnson, who made 8 low-A starts with a 5-something ERA this year as a very old 2025 draft signing. Romero made 14 Low-A starts, missing a month or so of time, with middling results; he’s heading to the bullpen. Agostini missed most of 2025 with injury but is a solid prospect; he should return if healthy.
Two new names moving up from FCL for next year should be Feliz and Farias. Feliz is looking like a solid prospect and is starting to get top-20 prospect love; he had a 2.20 ERA in the FCL this year after posting a 2.96 ERA in the DSL last year. He moves up and is an important young arm for us. Farias wasn’t great in the FCL this year but is already 23 and kind of has to move up; i’m putting him as the 5th starter in 2026 unless the team wants to compete him with one of the 2025 college guys.
All six college 2025 draftees are mentioned in Low-A to begin 2026, but I think all of them will go straight to the bullpen based on their college usage and pro potential. We’ll summarize our 2025 draft day posts here briefly; Tonghini was a setup-guy at Arizona. Maddox was a college SEC starter but a senior sign/5.56 ERA guy. Moore was a bullpen guy his first two years in college and pitched his way out of ODU’s bullpen before getting drafted, but wasn’t great as a starter. Biven was a swingman at Louisville. Huesman barely pitched at all at Vanderbilt, and Puk was a multi-inning Opener for FIU. None of our drafted college arms really project to be useful rotation pieces. The best option to start would be either Maddox or Moore if they need an arm.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Sullivan, Johnson, Agostini, Feliz, Farias
- D/L:
- To the Bullpen: Romero, Tonghini, Maddox, Moore, Biven, Huesman, Puk
FCL
Candidates: Harmon, Sime, Lunar, Portorreal, Reyes, Carela, Gimenez
Thoughts: Harmon and Sime are our two big bonus prep arms from the 2025 draft: I suppose its possible they start in Low-A in 2026, but that typically hasn’t been the MO of this team with its high school draftees. I’m guessing they do XST, ease into pitching, start in FCL and then maybe move up to Low-A later in the summer if they blow away their fellow teenagers in the complex league.
Lunar and Portorreal repeat FCL after middling 2025 results. Both are still relatively young as a 24IFA and 23IFA respectively. I’m guessing they make way for the three more promising arms coming up from the DSL and move to the bullen.
Moving up from the DSL are the three best starter prospects from the island this year in Reyes, Carela, and Gimenez. All three pitched solidly and it will be interesting to see how they fare. Reyes is a bit older as a 23IFA, while the other two didn’t start the year in the DSL rotation but pitched their way there as 24IFAs. None of these three were big money IFA signings, so they’ll be on a short leash.
One thing to keep in mind: the team loves using the FCL as a rehab weigh-station, so it’s entirely possible the “rotation” ends up being 4 guys and a rotation rehab start; they did this for a while this year.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Harmon, Sime, Reyes, Carela, Gimenez
- D/L:
- To the Bullpen: Portorreal, Lunar
DSL
Candidates: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso, plus 26IFA class
Thoughts: Torrellas, De La Cruz, and Robles finished 2025 in the rotation. Mejia and Carrasco were in the rotation to start 2025 but pitched their way out; they could get another shot but seem more likely to head to the pen. Reynoso is an unknown, having pitched in 2024 then missed all of 2025; i’d guess he’s bullpen bound.
The team signed 6 arms last January; not one of them featured in the 2025 rotation. Perhaps we’ll see some of them step up, but it doesn’t seem likely. Not one 25IFA arm had decent numbers this season. However, they also didn’t feature a single 24IFA signing in the 2024 rotation, preferring to bring them onboard a bit more slowly. The Nats havn’t really focused big bonus dollars on arms lately; just one non-trivial bonus amount in the last several drafts (Jose Feliz for $120k in 2023, then several guys in the 2021 class who are already gone), so it’s little surprise they struggle to find competent starters in the DSL.
Prediction for 2026:
- Rotation: Torrellas, De La Cruz, Robles, plus two 25IFA or 26IFAs.
- D/L:
- To the Bullpen: Mejia, Carrasco, Reynoso
Ok, so that’s what we’re looking at. This may change as we do MLFA releases and signings this coming off-season, or if we add/remove players via trade.
I hope I didn’t miss anyone, but let me know if i’m missing someone obvious and/or if you think i’m crazy.
Gore should be extended or traded. He’s a Boras client, so, um, I think we’re looking at Door #2.
The question then becomes what’s he worth? His second half, in the midst of the trade rumors, was disastrous: 6.75 ERA and a slash allowed of an All-Star hitter: .288/.381/.492. Yikes. His season ERA ended up at 4.17, FIP still a respectable 3.74.
Gore’s value isn’t that of Crochet’s, although I’m sure the name will come up. By himself, I’d say he’s worth one overall top-50 prospect and another from the top 5 of the organization making the trade. That’s just spitballing. Is it “enough”? Do the Nats throw in a young outfielder and try to get even more in return?
It would seem that where the Nats are in the rebuild, they should still be looking for prospects in return. A veteran with only a year or two left on his contract does them no good.
I hate reaching the trade-Gore conclusion, in part because the rotation was terrible in 2025 even with him. But unless the Nats are going to spend to bring in at least three quality starters to go with Gore, there’s just not much case to be made for wasting a season of prime trade value.
The lack of quality starting pitching will be the biggest riddle for Toboni & to unravel, all the more with Sykora and Susana significantly delayed in their progressions.
KW
14 Oct 25 at 10:21 pm
Nice detailed summary. Just wanted to add that Linan’s injury wasn’t serious, and he’s been named as part of the Nats contingent to the AFL. He’s thrown two wild, but scoreless innings so far.
Will
14 Oct 25 at 10:24 pm
Gore’s trade value will be much, much higher mid-next season, when competing teams are desperate to add starters. I can’t imagine getting a better deal in the off-season. But, there’s a risk to that strategy, a risk that Gore a) produces and b) stays haelthy. so, maybe they work something this off-season at the GM meetings.
The question is this: why do we “need” to trade him? He earned just $2.9M this year, maybe gets up to $8M in Arb2, still has another year of control … this team has very little payroll committed for 2026, needs pitching … i mean, if we move him we’d have to replace him somehow, and as covered in this article they’d be replacing him internally with someone like Irwin or Parker, or buying a one year rental on teh FA market for MORE than what he’d earn in Arb…. where’s the logic in that?
Unless they’re overpowered with the return in prospects, or have specifically decided to punt the next two years completely … then why move him? Teams can go from very bad to very good, very fast these days … and Gore’s just the kind of anchor arm you want.
Todd Boss
15 Oct 25 at 8:17 am
Great news on Linan; had not heard he was in AFL. Lemme put that context in there.
Todd Boss
15 Oct 25 at 8:18 am
AAA – Eden was a top prospect before his TJ injury. in 300 innings in the minors he was never tried in relief. I’d like to see him starting in Rochester.
I’m also giving Lara a reset, I suspect he was not healthy starting last year and things just went off the rails after that.
high hopes for Bennett to continue with his increased strikeouts in the AFL.
Cornelio seems to have found something to lower his walk rate, decreasing with each step up the ladder last year. let’s see if he can keep it up.
a veteran MLFA can fill out the rotation.
FredMD
15 Oct 25 at 9:10 am
Let’s flip the “need” to trade Gore question: are the Nats going to contend anytime soon? If the Lerners are willing to spend an additional $150M, then the answer actually could be “yes,” but that’s not the likely reality we’re living in.
So then the “need” becomes maximizing the return. I certainly agree that they shouldn’t be in a rush and should hold out for a good haul. Gore is far and away the best asset they have to trade. I actually think he’s worth more now than he is at the trade deadline, although teams are more prone to do stupid things at the deadline.
The bigger gamble would be to not trade him. I’m sure that Toboni had to promise in his interview to try to have the Nats in wild-card contention by 2027. Gore certainly could be a significant piece of that alleged contention. But if they don’t improve that much, and they have to move an expiring contract at the 2027 deadline, it won’t be worth nearly as much.
KW
15 Oct 25 at 9:21 am
For trade value’s sake, here’s a comp for you, with both after four seasons:
A: 4.02 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 8.8 H9, 10.0 K9, 3.8 BB9
B: 4.06 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 8.3 H9, 8.6 K9, 4.4 BB9
That’s a pretty remarkable match, isn’t it? “B” was a year younger than Gore (A). He led the majors in wins and FIP the year after the trade, and the NL in K9. Some kid out of Miami named Gio.
For Gio, the A’s got two ready-now back-end starters in Milone and Peacock and two of the Nats’ top-5 prospects in Cole and Norris. Forgotten in that story is that the A’s won 94 games and the division in 2012, with Milone starting 31 and winning 13, pitching 190 innings. Peacock ended up injured, then traded to Houston. Billy Beane flipped all four guys within a couple of seasons, including Cole back to the Nats.
KW
15 Oct 25 at 9:22 am
I’ll join FredMD in maintaining some hope for Lara. Remarkably, he’ll only turn 23 in January. Nothing in his 2025 numbers resembled what he did in 2024. There’s still plenty of time for better arm health plus better coaching to turn him around.
Maintaining hope doesn’t do anything about guaranteeing filling any need for 2026, though, even as a #7 starter-in-waiting at Rochester.
KW
15 Oct 25 at 9:29 am
good stat pull on the Gore/Gio comparison! interesting to me is that I’d target the A’s as a possible trade partner this time around as well.
FredMD
16 Oct 25 at 9:04 am
According to Spotrac, the Nats’ current f2026 inancial commitment to rostered players is $14,375,000. That’s it. Lowest in MLB.
Even if the Nats want to stay among the bottom 5 in MLB in payroll (which is pathetic) and given that some players, like Gore, will get pay bumps, they have lots of money to spend this offseason. So, if the Nats keep Gore, they can afford a fairly expensive starting pitcher and a fairly expensive bat, and still remain among the lowest spenders in MLB.
Pilchard
16 Oct 25 at 10:50 am
“Gore’s trade value will be much, much higher mid-next season, when competing teams are desperate to add starters. I can’t imagine getting a better deal in the off-season”
You keep Gore to see if you can compete as a Washington Nationals team in the 2026 season, and then reassess as you get to July 1. Demand will be high once again for great starters.
Also, I have Brad Lord competing for a starter’s spot. Parker to the bullpen makes sense. Irvin is a real tough call. By July 4 of 2024, he was a Jordan Zimmermann clone and ran into arm fatigue. Not sure if he has been the same since that 8.0 inning game.
Ghost of Steve M.
16 Oct 25 at 10:54 am
@KW: Love the Gio-Gore comp. well done. It even dovetails with age and years of control. Here’s my post about the Gio trade circa 2011: https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=3509
Here’s a quote: “He’s a low ERA, so-so WHIP (1.32 last year), high walk, high strikeout lefty arm that should benefit from coming to the NL. Simple as that. He’s going to put guys on base and depends on a good defense to bail him out, but he also strikes out a ton of guys and can get himself out of jams. One last thing that is a huge plus on Gonzalez; he’s under team control for FOUR more years. He’s heading into his first arbitration year this spring, is going to be a super-2, meaning the club controls him THROUGH 2015. Honestly, when you look at the cost of our prospects given up, a lot of that has to do with this fact here. A strong young guy who isn’t hitting FA for years to come? That’s pretty valuable in this league. Ok, I’ve talked myself into being excited to see this guy in our rotation. Now, can I stomach the prospect loss? ”
Pretty spot on to what Gio gave us in the end. One thing though: the years of control for Gio made the difference; he was Gore with 4 years versus anyone trading for him today would only have two. So, maybe half the haul we gave up for Gio … which at the time was our #3, #4, #9, and #20ish prospect. So, imagine today trading Sykora, Clemmey, Harmon, and Lomavita or a similar haul… that’d be an astounding drain on our system.
Todd Boss
16 Oct 25 at 2:10 pm
On Andry Lara returning to usefulness … I’m cognizant of his age and his capabilities … but I just don’t see it. He had nearly a 2.00 WHIP th is year in AAA. Yes he was effective in AA … but he’s shown zero capability yet to get AAA hitters out. I don’t see any decent trends in his splits either: 8.92 ERA as a starter, 6.81 as a reliever, 7.33 first half, 7.71 second half.
Perhaps there’s a complete re-brand and rethink of his approach that turns things around, but that’s a lot of innings of not getting AAA guys out.
Todd Boss
16 Oct 25 at 2:19 pm
@SteveM: Agree on Gore approach. Lord: as much as I like his story, If he’s starting for this team in 2026 it would indicate to me they’ve already given up. I suppose you could look at his improvement from Aug->Sept in the starter role (going from 7ERA to 4ERA) as proof he’s possibly a candidate in 2026. Fair; perhpas Lord is a 5th starter instead of Alvarez.
Irvin: he thew fewer pitches in that 8IP start than he did in the 6.1 IP start the time before. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=irvinja01&t=p&year=2025
Frankly, for a guy in his 3rd year in the majors, Irvin was babied from a pitch count perspective this year; he broached 100 pitches just five times in 33 starts. It’s hard for me to blame “workload” for his struggles this year.
Todd Boss
16 Oct 25 at 2:28 pm
I don’t think Gio had that much team control left at the time of the trade. What I remember is that he signed an extension immediately after the trade, which seemed to be a big reason the Nats were willing to give up so much. There were three low-cost years at the front of that extension, so that was probably how much control time he had left.
Interestingly, the WAR that Gio accumulated after the trade was almost exactly a push with that, collectively, of the guys traded for him. The least successful of them, by far, was Cole, who was thought to be the highest ceiling of the bunch. And of course Norris short-circuited his own career. The 5 bWAR that Gio was worth in 2012 alone topped the career totals of Milone, Peacock, and Cole.
KW
16 Oct 25 at 9:06 pm
It’s probably worth a separate post or two during the long Hot Stove season about what it would take for the Nats to reasonably return to contention, and how long it might take. It’s more than just throwing money at the situation. Just ask the Mets. (Hehe.) Starting pitching is a big hole. As discussed here, Gore is really the only one for whom there’s reason to have complete trust. Some may say Cavalli, but that’s yet to be proven. (I still see him as more of a late-inning reliever, as others have noted.) Even when healthy, Gray was only average at best. Irvin and Parker have had more chances than deserved. I don’t know when Herz is expected back. I do think he still has at least a chance to stick at starting.
I do think they have some good internal pieces for the making of a better bullpen, if the Toboni crowd reads analytics better than the last group. We’ll see. Lord and Williams have much better numbers in relief. I’ve always thought that Parker’s funk would play well in a relief role.
Can the new folks actually salvage someone like Rutledge?
In the field, the defense up the middle sucks. Will they have the guts to move Abrams to 2B and Garcia to, um, somewhere else? Will they have the guts to replace Ruiz? Will they have the guts to not let Lile use a glove? (I’m actually fine with trying him at DH, despite the lack of HR power.)
Will Crews and House truly become stars? Will Hassell become a viable major-leaguer?
A plus: there’s quite a crop of decent or better starting pitchers in the free agent class. If ownership wants to show that it’s serious about being serious, start there. (Of course that’s the same thing Rizzo would have told them.)
The fantasy: Crease, F. Valdez, and R. Suarez for the rotation, Bichette for SS (moving Abrams to 2B), and Bellinger for CF. Optional would be Bregman for 3B with House moving to 1B. Truthfully, in the current environment, we’d be surprised by any of these moves. But it’s past time to make a Werth-like statement in free agency. We’ve been talking about that for at least three years. With the state of the franchise, it would indeed take an overpay, as it did with Werth.
KW
16 Oct 25 at 9:38 pm
At a very basic level, can they hire coaches at both the MLB and MiLB levels who can teach the fundamentals of baseball better? Rizzo liked to proclaim himself “old school,” but truly old school would never have put up with the gosh-awful base running of the last few seasons and the poor fielding. Those things can be taught, and the Nats weren’t successfully teaching them. Plate discipline can be taught (to a certain extent). Better movement on pitches can be taught.
KW
17 Oct 25 at 8:33 pm
I will forever be grateful to Mike Rizzo. he took nothing, got a few breaks, competed for the majority of the 2010 decade and won it all ultimately.
that said, I am more than excited about the transition to Toboni. to a large extent because it says there will be a commitment to spend money on player development. I don’t think he comes here without that assurance.
I don’t think Rizzo had that yet thought he could rely on his old school ways to overcome it. he couldn’t.
I doubt they will compete in 2026 but I expect things to be different and better.
FredMD
18 Oct 25 at 9:40 am
KW – Derek Norris turned out OK for the As in the Gio deal. Stock was a little low when we traded him but FG had him as our #9 guy in the org when traded (right behind Robbie Ray).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-10-prospects-washington-nationals/
Immediately clicked in the minors for the As. Had a nice MLB stretch from 2013-15, making an all star game for the As before the deal to SD.
By the way, that organization top 8 after 2011? Harper, Rendon, Cole, Meyer, Goodwin, Purke, Peacock, Ray.
jca
20 Oct 25 at 2:38 pm