Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for January, 2020

Nats Arbitration Results: guesses versus actual

16 comments

I was way off on my salary prediction for taylor. (AP Photo/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)

I was way off on my salary prediction for taylor. (AP Photo/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)

Each year various pundits put out projections on Arbitration salary figures.  I put my own simple guesses in early in the off-season to do payroll projections.

Lets see how everyone did this year guessing the Nats cases?

You can see these guesses on the Nats 2020 Payroll page on the Big Board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/ .  I’ll take them one by one and talk through my guess versus the pros versus the actual settled number (they’re in the order they are on that page, not alphabetical or by salary amount).

Note: I tend to use the 40%/60%/80% guess for salaries, meaning in a player’s 1st arbitration year their salary should be 40% of their fair market value, in the 2nd year 60%, in the 3rd year 80%.  For those Super-2 players I guess what really happens is something like a 40/60/80/90 range.  I also figure players can’t get a salary cut, so even a poor player once tendered gets a salary increase … or so I thought.  Read on.

1. Trea Turner.  I guessed $8M even.  Cots guessed $8M as well, while MLBtraderumors guessed $7.5M.  Actual 2020 salary: $7,450,000.

I was off by more than $500k, as was Cots, while MLBTR was right there, just $50k off.  Great guess.  In his 2nd arbitration year I figured he’d get to about $8M, meaning he’s projecting to be about a $14M/year player.  He definitely improved his overall stock year over year after earning $3.725M last season.  Its hard to imagine what he dealt with in 2019, basically playing the entire season with a busted finger.  Can he explode in 2020?  I bet he can; he had as many homers in 2019 (19) as he did in 40 more games in 2018.  Can he return to his crazy stats from his rookie season?

2. Michael Taylor: I guessed $4.5M, Cots guessed $3M, and MLBTR guessed $3.25M.  Actual 2020 salary: $3,325,000.

This was my worst guess; I’m not sure why I thought he’d improve so highly on his 2019 salary of $3.25M.  I’m guessing that the team probably made him a deal and offered to tender him (and guarantee his 2020 salary to some extent) but that he had to agree to just a nominal raise.  Interesting how MLBTR predicted he’d get zero raise from 2019; how did they project that?  Nonetheless, MLBTR was just $100k off here, while I ended up more than a million dollars off.  What was I thinking?  I”m not sure; perhaps I was thinking that Taylor’s improved 2019 numbers and his now-recognized defensive prowess would be worth a decent amount on the open market.  I dunno; if he was a FA right now, i think he’d be looking at a MLFA contract and one last “show me” season starting in AAA.  Will he make the 2020 team?  I still sense there’s some detractors out there who think he’ll get cut.  I don’t: I think he was improving in AA, he shone in the post-season and is an excellent guy to have on the bench who can play the OF at gold-glove levels as a late inning replacement.

3. Hunter Strickland: I guessed $2.5M, Cots guessed $2M, MLBTR guessed $1.9M.  Actual 2020 salary: $1,600,000.

So, three for three, MLBTR is closest in their guesses.  I think i’m over valuing Strickland for past performance, not what he did in 2019.  I know that there are those who think Strickland should have been non-tendered; i think those people forget he was hurt in 2019 and may not have really recovered.  If he’s anywhere close to his 2017 self, then $1.6M is an absolute steal.  We’re talking about a back of the bullpen guy who can take over games.   I also figured he’d get a decent increase over his 2019 $1.3M salary, especially given that he’s worth $8M/year if he’s in his past form on the open market.  If if if.  2020 will be an important year for Strickland.  Plus he gets to pitch against Bryce Harper all the time!  :-)

4. Roenis Elias: I guessed $1.3M, Cots guessed $2M, MLBTR guessed $1.9M.  Actual 2020 salary: $1,975.000

This one kind of confused me; i didn’t think Elias’ 2019 season merited more than a doubling of his 2019 salary of $910k.   So I predicted an incremental increase … but both Cots and MLBTR were spot on here, with both being within $100k of the eventual figure.  These guys are good.

5. Wilmer Difo: I guessed $800k, Cots guessed $900k, MLBTR guessed $1.2M.  Actual 2020 salary $1,000,000

I guessed that a completely replacement-level middle infielder would get basically the “MLB veteran FA minimum” of around $800k.  MLBTR went $200k to the other side.  A flat million for a guy who a lot of readers here don’t think makes the team over an even lesser hitting replacement middle infielder we have on our roster in Adrian Sanchez.  If he’s released mid-spring training they’re only on the hook for 1/6th of the figure … so there’s that.

6. Joe Ross.  I guessed $1.4M, Cots guessed $1.25M and MLBTR also guessed $1.4M.  Actual 2020 salary: $1,500,000

My closest guess, and I still couldn’t beat MLBTR, which guessed the same.  I like this as a salary for Ross, still a 50% raise over last year where he barely contributed though.  In his sole healthy, solid season he was perhaps the best 5th starter in the game; here’s hoping he can return to that form in 2020.

———–

All told, I was more than $3.6M off on salaries one way or the other for these six players, an average of $600k wrong.  I’m not good at this.

Cots was a cumulative $1.625M off one way or the other, an average of $275k wrong per player.  MLBTR was off by a cumulative $1.1M, or an average of just $183k per player.  Their system continues to be the best and predicting these kinds of things.

Written by Todd Boss

January 22nd, 2020 at 10:47 am

Astros Cheating Scandal; my two cents

10 comments

Altuve's post-season heroics now in serious question. Photo via nytimes.com

Altuve’s post-season heroics now in serious question. Photo via nytimes.com

A pause to talk about the biggest topic of the off-season; the sign stealing scandals currently rocking the Astros, Red Sox and by association Mets franchises.

Summary: the Astros were found to be relaying the catcher’s signs to a monitor just within the clubhouse, and were able to signal their teammates in near real-time in express violation of an edict from the commissioner.  This comes from “whistleblower” Mike Fiers, who was a member of the team and witnessed the situation, which then sparked an investigation and has resulted in:

  • 1 year suspension (and subsequent firing) of Astros GM Jeff Luhnow
  • 1 year suspension (and subsequent firing) of Astros Manager A.J. Hinch
  • Lost of 1st and 2nd round picks in 2020
  • Loss of 1st and 2nd round picks in 2021
  • $5M fine to the organization

Commissioner’s report is here: http://vendettasportsmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cglrhmlrwwbkacty27l7.pdf

What’s missing here, of course, is any player penalty.  And when it came out in the report that this was a scheme “driven by the players, executed by the players” it becomes a little harder to swallow that not one player has been suspended.  The “banging” evidence is pretty damning: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28476354/how-internet-helped-crack-astros-sign-stealing-case kind of covers it and has some examples of internet sleuths who found pretty clear examples of it.

Why no player penalties?  CBA/Union of course.  But also … without hard evidence as to who was doing what, its awfully hard to pin blame on a particular player.  So the MLB essentially offered players immunity to testify so they could get to the bottom of the scandal.  But if there was direct video evidence of a player doing something nefarious and MLB moved to suspend them, it’d be awfully hard for the MLBPA with a straight face to defend the player at this point.

What’s more upsetting is the newer accusations of Astros players taking this a step further and wearing buzzing devices.  I know that MLB issued a statement that they “found no evidence” of this … but the video that’s surfaced and the comments made by the same twitter account that correctly predicted other parts of this scandal are pretty damning:

  • Jose Altuve‘s adamance of not having his jersey ripped off: https://www.12up.com/posts/jose-altuve-dont-rip-my-shirt-off-aroldis-champman-walk-off-hr-alcs-astros-yankees-01dyqxcze7n0
  • Josh Reddick appearing to have a wire taped to his chest; https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/01/astros-cheating-scandal-buzzers-new-allegations-altuve-yankees
  • Robinson Chirinos‘ having … something … fly off his person and hit Yan Gomes in the mask: https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/content/2019-11-19-astros-accused-of-using-electronic-buzzers-at-bat-to-signal-certain-pitches

Ok.  By themselves each of these links has arguments against.  Altuve’s screaming not to tear his jersey off isn’t evidence of anything, but its completely incongruous with his tendency to run around shirtless (as a response to the ridiculous “he’s shy” defense offered by his agent Scott Boras).  Reddick’s “confetti” argument … ok, I think I can tell the difference between a piece of plastic and a wire.  And, whatever flew off Chirinos’ bat doesn’t seem to be what he claims (an authentication sticker?  put on a live game bat??  that’s ridiculous).  So … Occam’s Razor here; what the heck is going on?

Let me put this to you a different way.  The Astro’s organization ALREADY had an awful reputation for repugnant behavior and top-level arrogance before this stuff all hit ; if they were so brazen as to bang trash cans … would it really surprise you if it was discovered they’d taken it a step further and used electronic buzzer devices?

I’m no conspiracy theorist; I believe in fact checking and that 99% of the time internet meme-driven stories are BS.  But this one I can’t shake.

I was chatting with my dad recently, and he asked me if this was the biggest scandal since the Steroids news broke.  Part of me wanted to say yes, but mostly I say “no” in that there’s only credible evidence that one or two franchises partook in electronic sign stealing.  It isn’t a wide-spread, hundreds of players across the sport issue like the PED issue was.  So in that sense, I think we’ll see this go away as an isolated set of incidents.  But every franchise has this capability, so It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we saw more rumors come out.

Do I think the Astros players need to be penalized?  Absolutely.

Do I think the franchise should have its World Series title stripped?  No.  I just can’t see how you do that.  This isn’t the NCAA, which routinely vacates wins and titles … ask a USC fan whether they frigging care that Reggie Bush‘s scandal caused them to vacate their wins while he played.  Who cares.  The WS titles are etched in stone, they’re already paid out and the parades have been held.  Do you really think it makes sense to retroactively award the title to the Dodgers from 2017 because potentially one or two guys knew what pitch was coming?  Can’t say I think that’s a workable solution.

Something tells me we havn’t heard the last of this … but this is how i’m feeling about it right now.  Who said the off-season was boring?  :-)

 

Written by Todd Boss

January 19th, 2020 at 1:05 pm

State of the Nats 40-man roster and Payroll post Arb-settlements

29 comments

Turner last arb case to settle. photo via wp.com

Turner last arb case to settle. photo via wp.com

The Arbitration deadline has come and gone, and for 2020 there’s no Club vs Player disputes.

Here’s how the payroll looks now.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/ is the 2020 Payroll worksheet on the Big Board.  You can see the details there but quickly:

  • 14 players under FA or established contracts: $154,772,709 in 2020 luxury tax salary
  • 6 players arb eligible: $16,850,000 in negotiated salary
  • 6 additional pre-arb players at an estimated $575k each: $3,450,000
  • 14 non-active 40-man roster players at an estimated $150k each: $2,100,000
  • Estimated player benefits figure for 2020; $15,000,000

Total right now: $192,172,709

Room under the $208M cap: $15,827,291

This figure is slightly off of Cot’s figure, which I think has an error when calculating the non-active roster guys (if 26 are active, then 14 are non-active 40/man guys; they currently are calculating for 15).   This salary guess is going to be slightly off of reality; we don’t know what our 6 pre-arb guys will get assigned as salaries but we can probably guess that Juan Soto and Victor Robles in particular will not just get assigned the minimum.  And, technically we’re only at 38 on the 40 man right now, so  you could theoretically subtract 2 * $150k from the salary figure to be exact.

The Arbitration salaries came in under what Cots, Mlbtraderumors and I all predicted as a whole.  MLBTraderumors is usually the closest and was spot on with several of their guesses.  I was way off on most of my guesses.

So, $15M left to play with.  You have to think $4M or so of that will go to Ryan Zimmerman.   Or maybe not?   If you look at the make-up of the roster right now … i’m not sure where Zimmerman fits in.  Position players now under contract:

  • Catchers: Suzuki starter, Gomes backup
  • Starting Infield: Kendrick 1B, Castro 2B, Turner SS, Cabrera 3B
  • Backup infielders: Difo, Thames
  • Starting OF: Eaton, Robles, Soto
  • Backup OF: Taylor
  • Minor Leaguers: Read, Barrera, Sanchez (if he makes it through waivers), Kieboom, Noll, Stevenson.

Ok so that’s 12 position players on the active roster plus another 6 in the minors.  So I guess there’s a Zimmerman-sized hold on the bench for the 13th position player, since with the new expansion you can’t carry more than 13 pitchers.  Who are those pitchers by the way?

  • Rotation: Strasburg, Scherzer, Corbin, Sanchez, Ross
  • 8th/9th inning guys: Doolittle, Hudson, Harris
  • 6th/7th inning guys: Rainey, Strickland, Suero, Elias
  • Long man/spot starter; Voth
  • Minor leaguers: Fedde, McGowin, Braymer*, Finnegan, Barrett, Bourque, AWilliams

So that’s 13 major league arms plus another 7 in the minors.

18 position players, 20 pitchers = 38 on the current active roster.

Still room for Zimmerman, and coincidentally still room for Sterling Sharp (oh whoops, he’s gone).

how we feeling about the roster?

 

Written by Todd Boss

January 14th, 2020 at 9:34 am

Getting the band back together: Cabrera re-signs along with other moves

69 comments

Cabrera is back. Photo via newsday

Cabrera is back. Photo via newsday

It was a busy Saturday for Nats GM Mike Rizzo.  In quick succession we heard about three moves:

  • The team re-signs 2B/3B Asdrubal Cabrera, 1yr $2.5M.
  • The team signs 2B Starlin Castro to a 2yr/$12M deal
  • The team previously signed RHP David Hernandez sometime in Dec 2019 to a minor league deal (which was just announced on Baseball America)

Cabrera was awful for Texas last year and got outright released; he lit it up for Washington, mercifully taking over for the completely ineffective Brian Dozier and lighting it up for the team down the stretch (slash line for DC last year post-signing: .323/.404/.565).   Cabrera played 3B for Texas but mostly 2B for DC; right now he’s your starting 3B opening day save any other move.

Castro clearly is the starting 2B; he moved there a few years ago, played it exclusively for several years but moved to 3B last season to make room for a prospect.  He was reportedly telling teams in FA he was only interested in playing 2B … so we have our starting 2B.  His signing seems to clarify what the team’s infield will be looking like come April.  He has two straight years of right around league average OPS+, but in 2019 he spiked homers, hitting 22 of them on the year playing a lot of games in pitcher-friendly NL East stadiums.

Hernandez was a great middle reliever in 2018 for Cincinnati, but blew up last year and signs a MLFA deal in an attempt to get back to the majors.  I like this as a low-risk/high reward move for a team always looking for the next 6th/7th inning RH reliever.

With these moves … as per the updated Big Board, your starting lineup come 4/1/20 looks like this (here’s a guess as to the lineup)

  • Eaton (RF)
  • Turner (SS)
  • Soto (LF)
  • Kendrick (1B)
  • Castro (2B)
  • Cabrera (3B)
  • Suzuki (C)
  • Robles (CF)
  • Pitcher

That’s  … a big step back from what we showed offensively last year, obviously.  The loss of Anthony Rendon in the middle of the order is pretty apparent.

Is this a playoff team?

—————-

Cabrera becomes the fourth 2019 team member/FA to re-sign with the team, joining Stephen StrasburgHowie Kendrick and Yan Gomes.  Pretty much the entire industry assumes Ryan Zimmerman is re-signing to be a bench bat as well.  So a lot of the veteran crew that was credited with helping the team win in October is now back.

Is this a good thing?

The oldest team in the majors last year has now resigned FAs who will be playing in their

  • age 34 year (Cabrera)
  • 32 (Gomes)
  • 31 (Strasburg) and
  • 36 (Kendrick).

They join other presumed starters and key relievers north of 30 in :

  • Kurt Suzuki (2020 will be his age 36 year)
  • Max Scherzer (35),
  • Anibal Sanchez (36)
  • Adam Eaton (31)
  • Sean Doolittle (33)
  • Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias (both 31)
  • Wil Harris (35)
  • Starlin Castro (30).

Um.  That’s a lot guys on the wrong side of 30.   And a lot of assumptions that the production like we got out of Cabrera (143 OPS+) continues into 2020 if he’s indeed the starting 3B.

———————————-

Oh, ps: all appropriate tabs in the Big Board are now updated for these transactions.  We’re now at 36/40 on the 40-man roster.  New payroll estimate is $185,452,709, leaving us $22,547,291 under the cap for 2020.  For all of you still holding out hope for Josh Donaldson … you should stop.  He’s soliciting 4yr deals north of $100M; the numbers don’t add up.  If this team has $22M and change left and are not going over, then we’re out of the Donaldson mix.

I’m not sure what’s next.  Does the team pursue a trade for a 3B?  Clearly they don’t want to give up Victor Robles in a Kris Bryant trade (and I don’t blame them, whether or not they have one year or two of his services).  Maybe we’re going to see some Rizzo trade magic coming soon.

Draft Tracker and Big Board Administration

26 comments

Hello all.  Quick news for 2020.

Two of the most vital online resources that I (and many other Nats fans) use are the “Big Board” and the “Draft Tracker” google spreadsheets.

In case you’re not aware of what these resources are:

  • The Big Board is a multi-tab Google spreadsheet that maintains several vital resources for the current season:
    • The Roster Tab: this keeps track of the current rosters of each of Washington’s 8 affiliates (MLB, AAA, AA, High-A, Low-A, Short-A, GCL, DSL plus known players in Extended Spring).
    • The Releases Tab: keeps track of player releases (or otherwise departing) across all the affiliates, both in the off-season and during the season
    • The Options Tab keeps track of Player Options for the 40-man roster
  • The Draft Tracker is one big Google spreadsheet that has every Nats draft pick in one place ever since the franchise moved to 2005, with schools, known bonus amounts and player disposision.

These resources have been around for many years.   In the beginning, they were created/updated by Brian Oliver, the founder of the original Nats prospect tracking website NatsFarm.com.  Then the anonymous “Springfield Fan” took over for a while.  Then Luke Erickson of NatioanlsProspects.com got involved and was a primary maintainer/creator for  years, first as “Sue Dinem” and then as himself.  In fact, these two sites are now so old that i’m not sure even who gets credit for creating them initially (so, apologies if I got it wrong who started them).

This post though is to basically announce that yours truly is taking over admin and updating of both sites.  The conversation to make this change got started in the fall when I offered to do some updates on the 2019 draft class for the Draft Tracker (which was still incomplete), and then one thing led to another and .. well now i’m the owner.

I have made some updates/additions to the two pages since taking over:

  • I’ve updated the Draft Tracker for the 2019 class, and have updated all the past classes for known player movement for this off-season.  With Ryan Zimmerman‘s option getting declined, the oldest surviving originally drafted player still with the team is Michael A. Taylor, drafted in in the 6th round of 2009.  Technically Stephen Strasburg was also a 2009 draftee of course, but his 6-week foray into free agency puts him a step below Taylor in Nats longevity :-)
  • I have also added in my personal draft class notes for the last five drafts (2015-2019 inclusive).  These spreadsheets duplicate a lot of the main draft tracker information, but are useful during the draft class negotiations to figure out how close the team is to their respective caps each year (that’s primarily how I use them each season).
  • I’ve updated the Big board for all post 2019 season movement, which include dozens of major- and minor league free agents.
  • The options tab is updated, including recently discovered 4th options for Erick Fedde and Raudy Read.
  • I’ve uploaded to the Big Board my master Nats Prospect Ranking XLS, which contains every Nats prospect ranking I could find dating to 2005.   This is a running XLS i’ve maintained for years to keep track of all prospects in the system.  Now i’ve put it online and will keep updating it as we get new rankings throughout the off-season.
  • I also uploaded my 2020 Payroll tracker that basically now emulates what Cots does … I figured i’d put this online to refer to instead of just mentioning it when I post, so you can “see my work.”

Basically, I went through a lot of the resources that i’ve been maintaining myself for  years and put them online.

Anyway; now if you run into an issue or an error on the pages you know who to call.

Any suggestions or comments, please let me know.

A sincere thanks to all who have kept these sites running in the past.  15 years of franchise data is now stored online in these spreadsheets in one form or another.  Great stuff. I’m glad I can help going forward.

Happy New  Year!

Written by Todd Boss

January 2nd, 2020 at 11:45 am