Editor’s note: feel free to stop reading now if you don’t want to read 4,400+ words on my fantasy baseball team. I won’t blame you for it. For those of you who do play fantasy, as I made picks I wrote down who I was considering and who was available per each pick to try to give some context for the pick. I’ll insert a “jump” line here so that RSS readers don’t have to see this whole massive post
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Here’s a wrap up of the end of season awards. I posted my predictions here in Mid October. The dream of going 8-for-8 is over. Read on for a summary of my predicions versus actual results.
- AL MVP: Prediction: Miguel Cabrera. Winner: Cabrera. Trout 2nd, Beltre a distant 3rd.
- AL Cy Young: Prediction: David Price. Winner: Price.
- AL Rookie of the Year: Prediction: Mike Trout. Winner: Trout, Unanimously.
- AL Manager of the Year: Prediction: Buck Showalter. Winner: Bob Melvin.
- Sporting News AL GM: Prediction: Billy Beane. Winner: Beane.
- Sporting News AL Comeback player of the Year: Prediction: Adam Dunn. Winner: Dunn. Note that there are now also MLB and Players Choice versions of this award, and they do not always agree with Sporting News’ picks. But SN is the oldest version so I’ll continue to guess based on it.
- NL MVP: Prediction: Buster Posey. Winner: Posey. Braun 2nd, McCutchen 3rd.
- NL Cy Young: Prediction: R.A. Dickey. Winner: Dickey.
- NL Rookie of the Year: Prediction: Bryce Harper. Winner: Harper.
- NL Manager of the Year: Prediction: Davey Johnson. Winner: Johnson.
- Sporting News NL GM: Prediction: Mike Rizzo. Winner: Rizzo, who technically came in 2nd to Beane as Sporting News only awarded one Executive of the year award.
- Sporting News NL Comeback player of the year: Prediction: Buster Posey. Winner: Posey.
My Final Prediction results: 7 of 8 of BBWAA awards predicted correctly, 11 of 12 including Sporting News awards.
Discussion (here’s a link to all the 2012 post-season BBWAA voting with totals from Baseball-Reference.com, plus i’ve included links to the voting and ballots where I could below).
- AL MVP: Cabrera wins over Trout; let the internet wars begin! The only thing that surprised me here was the relative landslide victory Cabrera had; he got 22 of the 28 first place votes, far more than I thought he’d get. This result shows what a lot of holier-than-thou bloggers need to wake up and understand; the MVP is NOT the award for the best player. Clearly these people (often rather rudely) do not understand the difference between stats-based analysis and context. Trout played for a 3rd place team; had he never played for the Angels this season … they still would have finished third. Like it or not, voters start their MVP lists by grabbing the best player on the playoff teams, and adjust accordingly. The solution to these arguments may be to create a hitting version of the Cy Young so that Trout can get his deserved due for his fantastic 2012 season.
- AL Cy Young: Price wins in a very close race over Justin Verlander, who had almost identical (and slightly better) sabremetric numbers to his dominant Cy Young last year and was the odds-on favorite of the Sabr-nerd crowd to win. I predicted Dickey not because he was inarguably the better pitcher; I predicted he’d win because voters sometimes like to give these awards to the fresh new candidate, and I saw that happening here. Price and Verlander split the first and second place votes almost down the middle, except for one random first place vote that went to Fernando Rodney. The Rodney vote, combined with both Los Angeles voters giving 2nd place votes to Jered Weaver, is the margin of loss for Verlander. Still, this was the closest Cy Young voting race in the history of the award.
- AL Rookie of the Y ear: No doubt here; Trout becomes just the 8th unanimous RoY pick in baseball’s history, and deservedly so. Yoenis Cespedes second, Yu Darvish third.
- AL Manager: My first miss on BBWAA awards in three years. The criticism of this award is that it is less about who actually manages their team the best; it really is given to the team that “surprised” baseball pundits the most. In retrospect, for all the reasons I predicted Billy Beane would get the executive award I should have given more thought to Melvin winning the Manager award. Showalter’s Orioles certainly surprised, and you can squint and say that their record in one-run games is entirely on the manager. But there’s no mistaking that the Athletics out-played their potential far more distinctly than the Orioles did.
- AL Executive: No surprise that Beane picks up this award, after flipping 3/5s of his rotation, signing the cuban defector Cespedes and getting Josh Reddick in trade, putting together a team that I thought could lose 110 games but instead won the AL West over two of the most bally-hoo’d teams in the majors. For all the people that chastised Beane for Moneyball, he has risen again after his early career success.
- AL Comeback player: I really struggled to pick a winner, thinking that Dunn’s pseudo-rebound from 2011’s disaster was a good enough example, and I got lucky. SN picked Dunn while other AL comeback awards out there went to Fernando Rodney.
- NL MVP: Posey takes this race in a landslide, getting 27 of the 32 first place votes. I’m really glad to see Braun get 2nd place despite the stigma surrounding his negated PED test last off-season; he won my “Modern Triple Crown” and was the best hitter in the league. Chase Headley gets deserved recognition and a 5th place vote. Several Nats got votes as expected, but none were factors in the race itself.
- NL Cy Young: this race wasn’t as close as I thought it may be, but Dickey beats out Clayton Kershaw for many of the same reasons Price beat out Verlander. Our own Gio Gonzalez comes in a close third; as it turns out, one reporter in St Louis completely left him off his ballot, purportedly because Gonzalez didn’t broach 200 innings. Which makes no sense, since this same reporter gave his 5th place vote to a reliever. *sigh* I hate hypocrites
- NL Rookie of the Year: Harper won a very close race over Wade Miley and for good reason; on September 1st you would have said that Miley was the easy RoY candidate. A strong finish combined with Harper’s narrative and probably some east-coast bias gave him the award. One writer completely left Miley off his ballot, but that wouldn’t have made a difference in the voting totals in the end. Another side note: have you ever even heard of the two Washington BBWAA chapter members?
- NL Manager: Johnson picks up the “manager of the most surprising team” award relatively easily; there really weren’t any other contenders once Pittsburgh collapsed mid-season.
- NL Executive: Rizzo’s Gio Gonzalez trade, Jackson signing and Harper call-up all led to a 17-game improvement and the major’s best record, earning him 2nd place in the overall executive award voting (to Beane) and thus the highest ranking NL executive.
- NL Comeback player: Posey was really a no-brainer, and won the award as expected.
I’ll say this in conclusion; the Trout-Cabrera arguments were the most one-sided, rude and biased I’ve seen yet in the whole “new school” trend of baseball writing. Even more ridiculous than the Jack Morris antagonists. And I’m thankful that, after today, I won’t have to read one more “Why Trout is the MVP” article.
I’ve had a good string of predicting MLB’s major Post season awards in this space. In 2010 I went 8 for 8. In 2011 I again went 8-8 in predicting MLB’s awards, though I missed on predicting the unofficial Sporting News Executive and Comeback Player of the year. I don’t have much confidence in going 8-for-8 this year though; the AL MVP seems way too close to predict, and I have no idea how the Cy Young awards will go.
[Editor Note: I write this in phases over the course of the season, and finalized it in early October. After I wrote this piece some of the awards have already been announced; Sporting News announced Comeback Players of the Year last week. I'll put up another post talking about my guesses and which awards I got right and wrong in another article once all awards are announced in November.]
Here’s a sampling of major baseball writers’ and their predictions that I could find ahead of my publishing this article: Tom Verducci, Ken Rosenthal, Bob Nightengale, Jonah Keri, and Jayson Stark. Here’s the Fangraphs.com staff picks, heavily statistically weighted as you’d expect. As you will see, even the national writers are all over the road with their predictions. Here’s HardballTalk’s Matthew Pouliot’s theoreticall ballot, with some contrarian picks. Seamheads’ Andrew Martin has the typical sabre-slanted ballot.
Before reading on to my predictions on 2012’s winners, a statement to prevent arguments in the comments section. These are my guesses as to who will WIN the awards, not necessarily who DESERVES them. Invariably there’s a player who plays on a non-playoff or losing team but puts up fantastic numbers (Matt Kemp for the 2011 Dodgers, perhaps Mike Trout this year) who a number of loud pundits say “should” win the MVP. Well, the fact of the matter is that the current voter base absolutely takes into account the circumstances behind a player’s production, and places more value on batters who are in a pennant race. As do I. The MVP isn’t the “Best Overall Batter Award,” which would end a lot of these arguments (since, the Cy Young essentially is exactly the “Best Overall Pitcher Award” and thus is easier to predict); its the “Most Valuable Player” award, and I agree with many who believe that a guy hitting .370 for a last place team isn’t nearly as “valuable” as the guy who hits .320 and leads a team deep into a playoff race. It is what it is; if we want to change it perhaps the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA, whose awards these are) needs to add a category or clarify their requirements.
Secondly, when considering the Cy Young, invariably there’s one pitcher who puts up comparable numbers to another, but one plays in a weaker division so the same Sabr-focused pundits make their holier-than-thou proclamations about how the voter base failed in their picks. And their points are valid. But this is a prediction piece, not an opinion piece, and the fact of the matter is that current voters are still mostly old-school and put value on things like “Wins” and “ERA,” stats that most Sabr-nerds think are useless in evaluating a pitcher.
So keeping those two points in mind, Here’s my predictions for 2012:
- AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Despite the massive amount of internet baseball material devoted to talking about how great a season Mike Trout has had (mostly looking at his WAR values historically), I still see the voter base placing emphasis on three major points:
- Cabrera plays for a playoff team, Trout does not. The fact that the Angels will finish with a better record than the Tigers, or that the Angels clearly played in a harder division? Immaterial to the old-school voter base.
- Cabrara won the Triple Crown. And most Triple Crown winners throughout history also won the MVP. The fact that the triple crown is based on 3 relatively flawed statistics? Irrelevant to the narrative of the achievement itself. It remains an incredibly difficult achievement to accomplish in modern baseball’s era of specialized hitters (Ichiro for batting, Adam Dunn for homers) to hit for both average and power in the way that Cabrera consistently does. (Rob Neyer posted thoughts about this topic, quoting random people on the internet with various takes).
- Cabrera had a monster finish, Trout did not. Cabrera’s OPS in the run-in months was over 1.000 each of July, August and September. Trout peaked in July but was merely above average in the closing months. Your finish matters (as we’ll see in the NL Rookie of the Year race discussed later on).
Opinions like USA Today’s Bob Nightengale’s exemplify the bulk of the voter base right now. A few years ago the writers were smart enough to award Felix Hernandez a Cy Young with nearly a .500 record by recognizing more of the advanced metrics in play, but the Cy Young’s definition is a lot more specific than that of the MVP.
This is nothing against Trout; the Angels were 6-14 when he got called up and finished 89-73. That’s an 83-59 record with him, a .584 winning percentage that equates to 95 wins, which would have won the AL West. Trout was the undeniable MVP for me nearly all season. You hate to say it, but when the Angels faltered so did Trout’s MVP candidacy.
The rest of the ballot? Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano get some typical “best player on best teams” votes. I’d give Josh Reddick some top-5 votes too.
- AL Cy Young: David Price, by virtue of his 20 wins and league leading ERA, will squeak out the win over last year’s winner Justin Verlander. The statistical crowd will point out that Verlander was just as dominant in 2012 as he was in 2011 (when he unanimously won), and that his significantly higher innings total and lead in Pitcher WAR should get him the award. However, as with the AL MVP you have to take into account the voter base. Price won 20 games, that he pitches in a tougher division, that he beat out Verlander for the ERA title. Plus, and I hate to say it, but Price is the “sexy pick,” the guy who hasn’t won before. Verlander is the known guy and sometimes you see voters being excited to vote for the new guy. Its kind of like the Oscars; sometimes an actor wins for a performance that wasn’t the best as a way to “give it to the new guy.” Certainly this contributed to Clayton Kershaw’s victory in 2011 and we may see similar behaviors again. There might even be an east coast voter bias in play. Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, and Felix Hernandez all get some top-5 votes, possibly finishing in that order behind Price and Verlander.
- AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, in what should be an unanimous vote. He could (if the MVP vote goes the way many thinks it should) become only the 3rd player ever to win both the MVP and the RoY in the same year (Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki being the others). In the conversation: Yu Darvish (who certainly did not have a BAD year, but drifted mid-season), Yoenis Cespedes (who would win it in most years), Matt Moore (my preseason guess; I’m still shocked he displayed virtually none of the dominance of the 2011 post-season during his 2012 season), Will Middlebrooks (who made Kevin Youklis expendible within just a couple of months of arrival), and amazingly Tommy Milone (who was nearly unhittable in his home stadium and continued his performance from the Nats in the end of 2011). A couple other names in the conversation: Scott Diamond and Jarrod Parker.
- AL Mgr: Buck Showalter should get this this award for taking a team that should be a .500 ballclub based on pythagorean record and put them in the playoffs for the first time in a decade. I also think he wins because of east coast bias, since certainly what Bob Melvin and the Oakland A’s pulled off is nothing short of fantastic. Robin Ventura may have gotten some votes had the White Sox held on, but may be the 3rd place finisher.
- (Unofficial “award”): AL GM: I almost hate to say it, but Billy Beane. The A’s were supposed to be awful this year, having traded away most of their starting rotation (as explained further in this Aug 2012 post here) and let most of their hitters walk. Instead they acquire a couple of good pieces from Washington, sign the exciting Cespedes to go with a few bottom-barrel FAs, and overcame a 13-game deficit to win the powerhouse AL West. A great story.
- (Unofficial “award”): AL Comeback Player of the Year: It has to be Adam Dunn, right? How do you go from the lowest qualifying average in history to career highs in homers and not get votes. Jake Peavy may get some votes after two injury plagued seasons, but he was pretty decent last year and isn’t exactly coming out of nowhere like Ryan Vogelsong did last year.
Now for the National League:
- NL MVP: Buster Posey’s strong finish, combined with his team’s playoff run and his playing catcher gives him the nod over his competition here. For much of the season I thought this award was Andrew McCutchen’s to lose, but his fade and Pittsburg’s relative collapse from their division-leading mid-season costs him the MVP. The rest of the ballot? Ryan Braun may be putting up MVP-esque numbers but the fall out from his off-season testing snafu will cost him votes (both in this race and for the rest of his career unfortunately). Johnny Molina getting some press too, for many of the same reasons as Posey. Joey Votto probably lost too much time to be really considered, but remains arguably the best hitter in the league.
- NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey was the mid-season choice, was challenged late but his 20th win combined with his fantastic ERA for a knuckleballer makes him the winner. Amazingly, Dickey has pitched most of the season with a torn abdominal muscle, making his season accomplishments even more impressive. Johnny Cueto makes a great case, leading the playoff-contending Reds, but he slightly sputtered down the stretch. Clayton Kershaw quietly had a fantastic year, leading the league in ERA, but as we saw with David Price above, I think the voters like to vote for the new guy. Kershaw got his Cy Young last year; this year is Dickey’s time. Other names in the top-5 mix: Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez and perhaps even Jordan Zimmermann (who got some mid-season attention by virtue of his excellent July). I have a hard time giving the award to a reliever, but the numbers Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are putting in as the closers of Cincinnati and Atlanta respectively may be enough to at least appear in the top-5. Lastly, the odd case of Kris Medlen; his WAR puts him in the top 10 despite only having 12 starts. Is this enough to give him some votes? Maybe some 5th place votes here and there. But look out in 2013.
- NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, who won his 2nd rookie of the month in September, finished incredibly strong and took advantage of late-season fades from his two biggest competitors to win this award. The National media buzz on Harper/Trout was never greater than during the season’s last month, and while games in April count the same as in September, the lasting impression is made by he who finishes strongest. Wade Miley has a great case but I think falls short. Cincinnati’s Todd Frazier has had a great season and was beating Harper’s numbers across the board, but he sat once Scott Rolen came back and faded down the stretch. Milwaukee’s Norichika Aoki has had a nice season at age 30, coming over from Japan. I don’t think guys like this (or Darvish, or Ichiro Suzuki for that matter) should qualify as “rookies” but rules are rules. Anthony Rizzo, Wilin Rosario, Matt Carpenter, and Mike Fiers also put up good rookie numbers and may get some 5th place votes.
- NL Mgr: Davey Johnson. Nobody had the Nats winning nearly 100 games. Had the Pirates not collapsed perhaps we’d be talking about Clint Hurdle. Don Mattingly had somewhat of a transitionary team playing great early, but the mid-season influx of high-priced talent, and their subsequent collapse costs him any support.
- (unofficial award) NL GM: Mike Rizzo, pulling off the Gio Gonzalez trade, signing Jackson in a deal immediately lauded as a great move and quickly putting together a team that looks to be 15-20 games improved over 2011. We thought they’d be in the mid-80s in wins; who thought they could be pressing for 100??
- (Unofficial “award”): NL Comeback Player of the Year: Buster Posey. He went from a season-ending injury to an MVP season. In other years Adam LaRoche may get some looks here, but not in the face of what Posey has been doing for San Francisco. Lastly I had Johan Santana on a short list for this award until he was lost for the season in the aftermath of his 134 pitch no-hitter on June 1st. At at point he was 3-2 but with a 2.38 ERA. He finished the season 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA and was shut down on August 17th. Are we sure that no-hitter was worth it?
I’ll admit it; after watching Billy Beane wheel and deal this past off-season, trading away most of his starting rotation and letting most of his FA hitters walk, I was predicting a 55 win season for this team. They were banking on a proposed move to San Jose and I saw these moves as a purposeful bottoming out while playing out the string in Oakland, ahead of a lucrative move to the South Bay. Well, that move seems interminably stalled, and many pundits predicted a near record loss season for this team, especially considering the massive moves that the Angels had made, coupled with the 2-time defending AL champs Texas being in the same division.
Instead, they sit at 56-48 and if the season ended today, right now on August 2nd, the Oakland A’s and their $55M payroll (2nd lowest in the league by a couple hundred thousand dollars) would be the 2nd wild-card and would play the Los Angeles Angels, they of the $154M payroll (and counting, considering this was their opening day payroll and they’ve taken on with the Zack Greinke deal at the trade deadline).
How did this happen? Lets look at the evolution of the Starting Rotation, because what this group is doing is nothing short of amazing.
In 2011, the Oakland had 10 different guys start games for them. Here’s a quick summary (* indicates a left hander on baseball-reference.com pages):
Here’s what happened to each of these guys (good link for trade details from baseball-reference.com here; this link shows the latest trade between Oakland and all other teams but quickly shows all these 2011 deals listed here):
- Cahill traded to Arizona
- Gonzalez traded to Washington
- Moscoso traded to Colorado
- Harden left via free agency, and as far as I can tell he remains unsigned.
- Outman traded (with Moscoso) to Colorado.
- Anderson had Tommy John surgery in June of 2011 and is in the minors rehabbing now.
- Braden had shoulder surgery in April of 2011 and has not pitched since.
They traded or released the starters who made nearly 80% of their starts in 2011. That leaves 3 guys who had any MLB starts last year: Brandon McCarthy, Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey, a total of 35 starts. To add insult to injury, Oakland traded their 2011 closer Andrew Bailey to Boston last December.
So, what does the Oakland rotation look like this year? Here’s the same data through August 1st:
So, where’d all these guys come from?
- Milone: acquired from Washington in the Gonzalez Deal
- Colon: bottom-of-the-barrel FA signing (1yr/$2M).
- Parker: acquired from Arizona in the Cahill deal.
- McCarthy; signed a 1yr/$4.275M FA deal after accepting arbitration from the team after last year
- Blackley: selected OFF WAIVERS from San Francisco earlier this year
- Ross: homegrown: a 2nd round pick in 2008
- Griffen: also homegrown; he was a 13th round draft pick by Oakland in 2010.
- Godfrey: acquired from Toronto in the 2007 Scutaro deal
Ross and Godfrey got demoted after poor performance, and McCarthy currently sits on the DL, giving Oakland this current rotation: Colon, Blackley, Griffen, Milone, Parker. All 5 guys with ERAs under 3.78 and all with ERA+ of at least 104 and mostly greater than that. And, when McCarthy comes back he’s essentially the best pitcher of any of them. AND, this is all being done with out Dalles Braden and Brett Anderson, two guys who were core components of the 2010 rotation and who would clearly be in the 2012 rotation if not for injury. AND, Oakland just announced today they’re promoting one of their best starter prospects in Dan Straily for a spot start this coming friday.
And, when Braden, Anderson and McCarthy come back, that gives Oakland a major surplus of pitching that can be flipped in the coming off-season for even more prospects and hitting (much as they did this past off-season).
Combine this pitching revolution with the schrewd Yoenis Cespedes signing (who immediately became the highest paid player on the team), the explosion of Josh Reddick (acquired in the Andrew Bailey deal from Boston), unexpected output from DH/FA signee (and ex-Nat) Jonny Gomes and a solid season from Seth Smith (acquired in the Moscoso deal) and you’ve got a team that is producing enough to win. They’re not an offensive juggernaut (mostly ranked 12th-13th in the 14-team AL in the major offensive categories) but you don’t need to score 8 runs a game when you have a staff ERA of 3.47.
As much as Moneyball critics will hate to hear it, I think Billy Beane is your easy choice for AL Executive of the year right now.
This is your semi-weekly/periodic wrap-up of Nats and other baseball news that caught my eye. With the approaching Hall of Fame nonsense, er I mean news cycle approaching, I’ll throw in a HoFame section.
Nationals In General
- Transcribed from a radio interview by Tim Dierkes, here’s Mike Rizzo on CF and 1B. This is the first time I’ve seen Rizzo mention NEXT year’s FA class in terms of looking for talent and it makes you wonder if we don’t already have our entire primary starting 15 set (8 out-field players, 5 starters and setup/closer) for 2012. I can live with Jayson Werth in CF, since it opens up lots of FA possibilities in RF. In fact, I smell a separate post coming…
- Former Nat Lastings Milledge is going to Japan to try to resurrect his baseball career.
- Scouting-specific SeedlingsToStars.com site looks at Anthony Rendon.
- The USA Today does an in-depth, position-by-position overview of the team and where it stands.
- Another Tom Boswell article that I disagree with; he thinks Prince Fielder isn’t “right” for the Nats. I’m sorry; but Fielder is a run creating machine (he created 35 more runs last year than Michael Morse, by way of comparison, which roughly equates with his 5.2 Wins Above replacement value). Yes we have LaRoche who is plus defense, but is he going to come back to 2010’s form or is he going to be a lost cause again? Meanwhile, Fielder looks set to take a shorter term deal and re-try his hand at the FA market when he hits 30. Wouldn’t you sign him for 3yrs $70M? You put Fielder at 1B, keep Morse in Left, groom Bryce Harper to play center and keep Werth in right. For the next 3 years. How difficult is that? Boswell talks about where to put Rendon; well; you put him wherever you have a need. Put him at 2nd and move Espinosa to short. Or you trade someone to free up room. This team’s problem isn’t the need for a lead-off slap hitter; we need a big run producer in the middle of the order. Someone to replace what Adam Dunn gave us for two years.
- Ryan Tatusko posts his 2011 recap of his minor league season plus his time in the Venezuelan Winter League. I wish more players were as blogger-friendly as Tatusko.
Hall of Fame Specific
- A pro Edgar Martinez take with the important quote, “There is a position called DH…” I have changed my own stance on this issue in recent years, especially when considering relief pitchers as hall of fame worthy. If you argue that a closer and his 60-70 innings is somehow more valuable to a team than a designated hitter’s 650 at bats, then I’d have to disagree. On my hypothetical ballot, Martinez is in.
- Excellent review of active MLB players under HoFame consideration by Fangraph’s Dave Cameron. Also, the comments discussion brings up a number of other players. He uses primarily career WAR to determine the player’s value, which I’m somewhat hesitant about (in most cases WAR is an accumulator stat, as a mediocre player who stayed very healthy will have a higher WAR than an excellent but shorter-lived career).
- This article really got to me, to the point where I commented on both the original post by Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus and the discussion at TangoTiger’s InsideTheBook.com blog. Jaffe’s hall of fame measuring system (called JAWS) somehow has determined that Brad Radke, the middling pitcher for the Twins who had basically one standout season in his career, was a BETTER player career-wise than Jack Morris. How would any sane baseball observer possibly come to this conclusion? This is where the modern blogger’s over-reliance on statistics really gets to me. I have not read into why this system ranks Radke so high while ranking Morris so low but suspect it is due to a reliance on the same calculations that go into the ERA+ statistic (of which Radke’s career ERA+ of113 is better than Nolan Ryan’s career era of 112).
Free Agents/Player Transaction News
- Oakland continues to dismantle itself: Boston trades OF prospect Josh Reddick and two other players to Oakland for closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. This is after Boston acquired Mark Melancon earlier in the off-season; they now have completely remade the back side of their rotation. Clearly the team is moving Daniel Bard to the rotation, having just traded for his replacement. Reddick was clearly seen as surplus to requirements, despite putting together a decent 2011 season, but you have to wonder if the team is going to be satisfied with Sweeney starting in RF.
- Keith Law makes a good point during his analysis of the Bailey move, saying that adding Bailey is a far better move than paying Jonathan Papelbon $50M. I agree completely and think that anyone who pays $10M+ per year for a guy who throws 70 innings and who only really has about 50% “high leverage” plate appearances (see last year’s splits for Mariano Rivera and Papelbon to see that 57% of Rivera’s plate appearances were in “high” leverage situations as a high, while Papelbon was at 47%) is just wasting money. Find a hard thrower in your organization (say, like Drew Storen for the Nats), install him as the closer as a rookie, then ride him til free agency and then cut him loose and start over. Relievers are fungible talents, they come and go, mostly are failed starters since they don’t need the full repertoire of pitches to be successful, and are cheaper to come by.
- (hat tip to ck of the Nats Enquirer): The Baltimore Sun reports that Scott Boras and Prince Fielder were in the Baltimore/DC area to meet with an owner not named Peter Angelos. More links on the topic from Federal Baseball. Gee, I wonder who it could be? Why would those two fly HERE and not directly to the city of the owner in question, unless the owner of the team in question was either a) the Nationals, or b) an owner of a MLB team who lives in this area but owns a team based elsewhere, or c) an owner of another team just happened to be in DC for some odd reason (odd because Congress is out of session, which would seem to eliminate most any possibly lobbying reason). Don’t get me wrong; I think Adam LaRoche can contribute in 2012 and it seems ludicrous to think he can’t at least get close to his 2010 numbers, but Fielder is a 5+ WAR player who probably makes us the favorite for the NL wild card if we sign him, right now.
General Baseball News
- Wow, two LOOGY articles in the same day. Bill James answered a question about the evolution of the LOOGY and posted this link describing its birth (apparently by Tony LaRussa in the 1991 season). I also never knew that the term “LOOGY” was coined by none other than Rob Neyer. And TangoTiger points to some of the same research. Mid 30s lefties everywhere have LaRussa to thank for their extended careers.
- Could you imagine this happening in today’s game? The first intentional pitch would have resulted in ejections. Certainly modern umpires would not let a pitcher throw pitch after pitch at an opposing batter. Clearly these umpires let this game get out of hand.
- Will MLB step in? USAToday’s Seth Livingston thinks that the Oakland payroll dumping trades this off-season may get the attention of the front office. Hard to see why; according to Cot’s the Athletics are only signed up for around $17M of guaranteed contracts in 2012 right now, before a slew of arbitration cases. They non-tendered 3 of their 10 arbitration cases but kept a couple of their more expensive guys (Cot’s thinks they had 14 arbitration-eligible players; I havn’t cross-referenced outrights and DFAs but know they had 10 arb tender decisions). Of those they did tender, they have since traded away Sweeney, Gonzalez, Bailey, Breslow and Cahill. Geeze. Baseball-Reference thinks they’ll get to $50M in payroll; I wonder if they’ll get to $35m frankly. And, its looking more and more like this could be something like a 50-win team. Things could get ugly in the Bay area in 2012.
- This would be a loss for us prospect hounds: Keith Law is reportedly interviewing for a front-office position with the Houston Astros. Law takes a very specific, opinionated viewpoint towards player development, drawing from his experiences in the Toronto organization (which itself during his time took a rather college-heavy approach to the draft which ultimately wasn’t as successful as the team wanted, ultimately contributing to the end of JP Ricciardi’s reign.
- An interesting exercise; USA Today builds an unbeatable MLB team for the median MLB payroll. Honestly though, I’m not sure just how challenging this exercise is. If you gave me $86M (the median payroll they used) you should be able to put together TWO such teams. There’s enough pre-arbitration and arbitration-controlled talent in the league to be able to do the same task for something approaching a $20M payroll. A future blog post?
- Follow-up on Alex Rodriguez’s experimental Germany treatment; this op-ed piece from Jeff Passan on the blurry line between PEDs and legitimate surgical procedures. The article has a very in-depth description of the A-Rod procedure and raises the question as to what defines a Performance Enhancing Drug? I have had similar discussions; why are Steroids “bad” but Cortisone “good” in terms of usage? What do Cortisone shots do? They enable a player to play through pain that otherwise may keep him out. Uh … isn’t that the definition of a “performance enhancing” substance?? Steroid’s aren’t illegal; they’re just controlled. But so is cortisone; you can’t just inject yourself with the stuff without a doctor’s order. Passan takes things one step further, comparing the healing effects of HGH with these new treatments that A-Rod and Bartolo Colon got and makes a very good point; the WADA uses 3 categories to define a doping drug and everything we’ve described here can be argued to fit those criteria (except that only HGH and Steroids have been determined to be “bad” by the powers that be). There’s something inconsistent here.
- Seedling to the Star’s scouting report on Brave’s phenom prospect Julio Tehran. Tehran’s stock has slipped somewhat in the past two years, especially given the inevitable comparisons to fellow pitching prospect phenom Matt Moore. While Moore’s 2011 MLB debut was nothing short of amazing (including his 7 innings of shutout ball in the playoffs), Tehran posted a 5.03 ERA in about 20 MLB innings throughout 2011. It was bad enough to probably rule Tehran out of the 2012 rotation plans and send him back to repeat AAA. But if he can put things together, he’ll join an arsenal of young arms in Atlanta that seems set to be their next wave of starters in the ilk of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
General News; other
- Baseball meets modern America: Joe Maddon and the rising Latino population in his home town of Hazelton, PA, as written by Joe Posnanski.
- 67-56? I’ve never seen a football game with such a ridiculous scoring line.
Weekly wrap-up of Nats and other baseball news that caught my eye. With the absolute deluge of baseball news, rumors, and unbelievable FA signings this week I frankly got lost in the shuffle, so most of these items are from the weekend and early this week. Hopefully you know by now about Reyes, Buehrle, Wilson, Pujols and our Rule5 losses. If not, you’re just not a true baseball fan now are you?
Nationals In General
- An excellent good-bye blog posting from Ben Goessling, leaving the MASN Nats beat for his home-town paper. No permanent replacement has been hired, but MASN still has Byron Kerr putting out excellent prospect-focused posts, and Pete Kerzel temporarily filling in for Goessling during the Winter meetings (and perhaps beyond).
- Well, now we know what Stan Kasten plans on doing in his post-Washington career. Unfortunately for Kasten, Bud Selig can’t just give him the Dodgers as has been his custom in “awarding” teams to new owners.
- Byron Kerr reports that Hector Nelo, our high-A reliever who is pitching in Venezuela, can now hit 100mph. He always had a high velocity arm, but being a 25-yr old in high-A isn’t necessarily the most impressive feat. He was an April minor league free agent pick up, having been released by the Texas organization after putting up pretty mediocre figures. I’m projecting him in our AA bullpen for 2012. He may be able to hit those high figures, but its not being reflected in amazing k/9 rates. I remain skeptical that he can be an impact arm for us in the future.
- As noted elsewhere, Keith Law’s posted his “top 50 under 25” list of players under 25 but who have already lost their rookie eligibility. Its insider-only but Amanda Comak at the Washington Times pretty much cut-n-pasted the entire list late last week. You can google it or search her archives. 3 Nats made the list: Strasburg, Ramos, and Espinosa. No real quibbles about those Nats left off; Drew Storen would have qualified, as could have Desmond and some weaker members of the bullpen/bench, but clearly Law doesn’t rate closers (nor do I, really). He has Craig Kimbrel, 2012’s ROY at #49. Law’s little dig at Desmond in his Espinosa write-up also indicates his opinion of the hitting capabilities of our current starting SS. I do question some of his rankings: I’d certainly have ranked Kershaw above one-year wonders such as Mike Stanton, but perhaps Law’s explanation of his ranking (he’s looking at projections for the next 6 years versus what they’ve already accomplished), explains it away.
- Well, there goes one OF option: Laynce Nix has signed with the rival Phillies. Most reports seemed to indicate that the 2-year guarantee solidified the deal for Nix, who faces at best a LF platoon in Philadelphia. Still, he could turn in a 20-homer season rather easily hitting in that bandbox.
- Jim Riggleman signed on to manage the Cincinnati AA franchise, a bit of a step down from a MLB manager job but at least he has on-field work.
- In what is sure to inspire a fire-storm of Natmosphere posts, Jim Bowden reports that Ryan Zimmerman’s agents have been “rebuffed” in opening contract extension talks. I can’t blame Rizzo here: you’ve got a franchise player who can’t stay healthy; he’s a risk to guarantee a bunch of years and a bunch of money. Yes, everyone’s a risk to give guaranteed contracts … perhaps why the team needs to think on it a bit more.
- Uh oh. Sammy Solis is visiting Dr. Yocum to get his elbow looked at. This is not a good sign. Can anyone say Tommy John surgery?
Free Agents/Player Transaction News
- A month-old post, but somehow I missed it. Jeff Passan’s free agent tracker, with some concise opinion on each of 181 free agents this off-season. No predictions but on-point analysis.
- Wow. Heath Bell gets 3yrs/$27M from the Marlins. Not that I don’t think he’s a good closer, and not that I really care that the Marlins just acquired a player being paid in AAV the equivalent of 1/8th of their 2011 payroll. Maybe this whole “Marlins are going to spend money” thing is for real. I agree with Neyer’s assessment here: “that’s a lot for a guy who is going to throw 65 innings.” Predictably, Keith Law hates the deal.
- Even more Wow: Jose Reyes signs for a reported 6yr/$106M deal with these same Marlins. One has to wonder if we’re looking at another dynasty build-up/epic team dismantling situation.
- Jon Heyman’s list of 10 busiest clubs for the Winter meetings, and somehow the Nats, whose name is associated with practically every FA in some form or another, are not on the list.
- We could soon find out just how serious the Nats interest is in Yoenis Cespedes, with him possibly being declared a FA within the next week or so.
- Despite some opinions that the Rule 5 draft is useless, there are active teams every year (The Nats included). Here’s one blog’s Top 25 available Rule 5 draft potentials. He does list three Nationals: Brad Meyers, Sandy Leon and Erik Komatsu. He also lists the top other prospects by system. That’s a TON of research frankly, digging through rule5 eligibles from all 30 minor league systems. Of course, John Manuel did the same on Baseball America, posting part 2 of his review, highlighting some favorites for role players (utility infielders, 4th outfielders, loogys and middle relievers). I’m guessing its from this group that the Nats may tempt fate and look to fill some bench spots. 12/7/11 Update: sure enough we lost both Meyers and Komatsu. So irritated.
- Sometimes, star athletes just don’t know how to say good bye. Manny Ramirez has filed for re-instatement and plans on playing in 2012 after serving his 2nd drug suspension. He’ll have to improve on his 1-17 outing for Tampa Bay last season.
- Interesting potential trade tidbit posted by new Masn beat reporter Pete Kerzel: Boston possibly dangling either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish in trade for starting pitchers (names mentioned include Ross Detwiler and Collin Balester). I’d like any trade permutation here; both Detwiler and Balester are out of options and increasingly with every Buehrle/Wilson/Oswalt rumor Detwiler’s chances of making our 25-man roster diminish.
General News; Baseball and other.
- “Just in time,” indeed. Rob Neyer reports that the Feds are investigating the incredibly shady Marlins stadium deal. Jeff Passan also mentions the SEC subpoenas for financial records, meeting minutes, etc, looking for evidence of bribery of federal officials. Nothing would make me cackle more than to find out that the Marlin’s owners and management were to expect a federal indictment for corruption. Everything I’ve ever read about Jeffrey Loria, David Samson, and Larry Benifest and anything related to the Marlins as an organization and this stadium deal in particular has been negative, and this undoubtedly will be no different. I hope Selig is happy with himself for engineering Loria’s Expos sale and Marlins purchase, as well as watching his new buddy subsequently pocket millions and millions of dollars in revenue sharing whilst occupying the 6th largest market by MSA.
- Wow. Jon Heyman is leaving SI for CBS. This prolific writer is well known for being ahead of the curve on baseball news, and leaves a pretty big hole in the baseball reporting department for cnnsi.com.
- Interesting precedent setting event: MLB has restored Mike Trout’s rookie eligibility for 2012. He’ll certainly be a candidate .. if he can get on the field. Matt Moore may be a better candidate, based on what we saw in September and October though.
- I’ll put in just enough opinion to get into trouble on the BCS: LSU-Alabama repeat for the National Championship is an abomination of justice when looking at the Alabama season in basic comparison to Oklahoma State. The OK State-Stanford game will be 10x as enjoyable. I only wish the BCS could have had 100% egg on its face with LSU losing the SEC title game but still being pretty much guaranteed a match up in the Championship. I would have laughed. Call me when there’s a playoff.
- I didn’t realize they were nominated: legendary college coaches Mike Krzyzewski and Pat Summitt received 2011’s SI Sportsman of the Year award. Clearly these were “career” awards, as opposed to anything specific to 2011.
- In case you were interested, or wanted to nit-pick every Hall of Fame ballot to death, here’s a blogger who tracks all the BBWAA voters and finds their HoFame votes.
- Not to get into too much politics here, but Mitt Romney’s reported dig on Barack Obama’s planned 17-day vacation smacks of hypocrisy. All he needs to do is check the record on George W. Bush’s days spent “on vacation” while office and perhaps he’d wish he wasn’t casting stones. In fact, depending on how you interpret this research, Bush spent nearly 32 PERCENT of his time in office actually back home at his ranch or at Camp David.