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Do we really think there’s going to be a season?

9 comments

I alluded to this in comments on the previous thread…. but it is a question worth asking.

Here’s the rough timeline for the 2020 season:

  • Friday, June 26: Transactions freeze ends at noon ET
  • Sunday, June 28: Teams must submit 60-man player pool names by 3 p.m. ET
  • Wednesday, July 1: Teams report to Training Camp 2.0
  • Friday, July 24: New Opening Day
  • Monday, August 31: Trade deadline (usually July 31)
  • Tuesday, September 15: Players must be on big league roster to be eligible for postseason

So, notably, here we sit not even to July 1 yet, and we have the following issues:

MLB has a plan, of course.  And true to MLB fashion, its vague and arguable throughout.  Per the “contingency plan” they can stop the season if:

  1.  if restrictions on travel throughout the country are imposed;
  2. if the season poses “an unreasonable health and safety risk to players or staff to stage those games,”; and
  3. if the competitive integrity of the season is compromised by the number of players who are available.

Those aren’t “or” clauses; they’re “and” clauses.  Meaning all 3 need to take effect.  #2 in particular seems particularly vague enough to basically never be agreed as being true by the 35-40% of this country that still seems to think this pandemic is a joke or a media invention.

I mean, what do you do if the virus hits a team and knocks out a third of their roster?  You can’t possibly ask them to keep playing with a bunch of minor leaguers.  That clearly compromises the integrity of the season.  Meanwhile, we already have players like our own Ryan Zimmerman make pretty cogent arguments that they’re in really tough spots personally to expose themselves to three months of high-risk travel and group settings (If you’re Zimmerman, with an immuno-compromised parent and a small child at home … what would YOU do?)

I dunno.  I think its a frigging mess.  As much as I like baseball and want a season to discuss and analyze, as much as I want to see Max Scherzer vs Gerritt Cole on opening day … part of me thinks we’re gonna get to mid-July and there’s going to be huge roadblocks to play.   We’ll see I suppose.

When our 60-man roster is announced i’ll do another post to talk about it.

 

Post-publishing addition: I completely forgot to add in concerns  about (some of which was mentioned in the comments):

  • our foreign players actually being able to fly HERE
  • our foreign players actually being allowed to fly home.
  • state-based flying restrictions just announced.
  • the fact that the DC mayor has apparently banned large gatherings and the Nats may not be able to train at home.

just so many issues.

Written by Todd Boss

June 28th, 2020 at 8:33 am

MLB 2020 Draft to be just 5 rounds

125 comments

Amateur players who have already lost an entire year of playing time got another huge punch in the gut late friday, when MLB took their option to have the shortest possible draft in 2020 (5 rounds), to drastically reduce the max bonus for anyone not drafted in those 5 rounds (just $20k, as compared to $125k last year), and to basically screw hundreds of players who were set to matriculate into the pros this season.  They’ve even negotiated to delay bonus payments!

All in the name of saving a few bucks (estimated to be $1M each at best likely a lot less)  for franchises whose values are generally measured in the billions.

MLB officially shortens 2020 draft to five rounds

I agree with Scott Boras here, who blasted this move.  https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2883387-scott-boras-slams-mlbs-2020-coronavirus-draft-plan-says-it-hurts-young-players

I just can’t get over how, year after year, in the name of minor savings figures, the owners continually attack the draft, the international signing period, over and over, putting in limits and regressive taxes that while saving a few dollars ends up driving away players from the game.   This comes on the back of the highly opportunisitc plan to eliminate entire  *leagues* of minor league players, again in the name of saving money on the backs of players who are non-unionized.

I mean, is the goal to eliminate the entirety of the minor leagues too?  To somehow improve the major league product by doing what the NFL does; throwing rookies right onto the active roster of the NFL and have them basically sit until they learn?

As for the current crop of players, hundreds of them now face a brutal choice:  sign for a pittance to then earn a pittance and try to make it, or go back to college, where their partial scholarship may not even be guaranteed anymore, or … give up.  I wonder how many players are just going to give up.  How is this a good solution for anyone involved?

 

Written by Todd Boss

May 9th, 2020 at 1:01 pm

Posted in Draft

Tagged with ,

MILB reportedly agrees to contraction plan

43 comments

1200px-MiLB_logo.svg

A couple of news items hit today that confirm what a lot of us have been fearing; the make-up of the Minor Leagues is set to change drastically, starting next year.

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2020/4/21/21229598/mlb-reduce-number-of-teams-milb-teams-coronavirus

and

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sources-milb-ready-to-agree-to-significant-reduction-in-teams/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email

both confirm the plan to reduce then number of minor league teams by more than 40.  The plan would be to contract entire leagues (both the Short Season leagues like the NY Penn league and the Northwest league) and the non-complex Rookie leagues (like the Appalachian league and the Pioneer league).  Each team would be left with four full-season affiliates plus its complex rookie league.   Even though the conversations about this plan started last fall, the Covid19 situation has drastically affected the finances of nearly every minor league team, and its likely that a number of them are already insolvent (or close to it).

The impact for the Nats would likely be three fold:

  • We’d lose our short-A team in Auburn
  • We’d seemingly lose our Hagerstown affiliate and have it replaced in Low-A by a new city.
  • We’d probably have to find a new AAA team.

The entire concept of Short-A is set to be eliminated.  So that’s our Auburn affiliate.

Hagerstown has been specifically singled out by MLB sources (as reported by Keith Law here: https://theathletic.com/1718395/2020/04/03/law-even-with-baseball-shut-down-specter-of-minor-league-contraction-looms/?article_source=search&search_query=hagerstown) as being a substandard facility and seems like its on the chopping block.

Lastly, Fresno is reportedly going to get moved out of AAA to become a California league team in High-A, which means the Nats would need a new AAA affilliate.  More to the point … some team not currently in AAA would need to get promoted.  This could be great for us … especially if a crown-jewel AA team is suddenly available to use to use as an affilliate.

———–

A side effect of losing 40 or so teams is the obvious: we’re not going to need to draft as many players.  There’s already been Covid-19 driven talks about modifying the 2020 draft down from 40 rounds to as few as 5.  But without a short-season team to draft for (and without advanced complex leagues for other franchises), there’s just not as much need to draft players.

Many observers already thought the draft was too long.  A quick glance at the nats draft tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/ depicts this pretty clearly; Since the draft went to 40 rounds, the Nats have never signed much more than 75% of its draftees.  Often times their last 8-10 picks were throw away picks on relatives or friends of Nats staff, or on HS players with strong div-1 committments who they had zero chance to sign for the $100k-$125k slot figure.  Here’s some details on the last few years in particular:

  • 2019: 11 of 39 players drafted went unsigned, including the last 6 rounds.  Draftees included the son of a Nats scout
  • 2018: 11 of 40 players drafted went unsigned, 7 of the last 8 picked didn’t sign, most of whom were HS picks.  Three of these draftees were sons of Nats staff members.
  • 2017: 7 of 40 players drafted went unsigned, including 4 of final 5 picks.  Draftees included Dusty Baker‘s son, a cousin of a Nats scout and the grandson of Bob Boone.
  • 2016: 11 of 41 players drafted went unsigned, including last 9 picks.  Draftees included two nephews of a nats scout, the son of a Nats front office executive and a Bethesda player who was unrecruited by any collegiate team.
  • 2015: 10 of 40 players drafted went unsigned, including 5 of last 6 picks.

Its pretty clear that the Nats would be a-ok with a 30 round draft to start with.

Now, how many players are assigned straight from the draft to Short-A every year?  Based on my “initial assignment” notes over the past few years…

  • 2019: 9 straight to Short-A, another 4 who were in the GCL for like a week before heading to Short-A
  • 2018: 7 straight to Short-A, another 4 GCL/Short-A
  • 2017: At least 5 straight to Short-A, another 8 GCL/Short-A combos
  • 2016: 5 straight to Short-A, another 5 GCL/Short-A

So, if there was no Auburn, that’s at least 10-13 players per year that the team … wouldn’t need to draft.  This is consistent with dropping the draft down to 20 rounds, possibly even just 15.

———-

Now, am i a proponent of this?  Of course not.  I think MLB is forcing a lot of cities to forgo long-held minor league baseball teams for the purposes of … saving a few dollars?  I mean, lets be honest; short-A squads are generally filled with lower-round draft picks paid $1,200-$1,500 a week for half a summer.  I feel like this is yet another effort by MLB to cut minor amounts of amateur player acquisition spending because they can, not because it benefits the sport or its fans in general.

But, I also get their general point that fewer minor league teams may be better.  The odds of a 25th rounder turning into a major leaguer are low, so why bother drafting them?  As i’ve demonstrated, the last 10 rounds of the draft now are generally throw away picks, and the next 10-15 rounds generally exist so as to populate short-A teams.  No short-A team … no need to draft them.  If you focus your efforts on the full season teams, improve facilities, maybe even increase their pay (what a novel idea!) maybe the guys you do draft are better served.

MLB’s transition plan doesn’t really hold water; they’re suggesting the 40-some odd teams that do get cut form yet another wood bat league?  I suppose there will be some appetite for this from the huge number of players who will no longer get drafted.  But will people pay to watch?  Maybe so: the Northwoods wood bat leagues draw, so maybe others will draw if the competition is known to be better.

Either way, get ready for some significant changes.

Written by Todd Boss

April 21st, 2020 at 3:26 pm

Posted in Draft

Tagged with , , ,

So…. what the heck do we talk about?

9 comments

Its been a whirlwind few weeks, I tell you.

With today’s announcement that Virginia schools are now closed for the rest of the school year, I thought i’d chime in.  Virginia was not the first state to take such drastic measures, but certainly won’t be the last.

We’ve already had the NCAA shutter all spring sports, including baseball and the far-too-early-but-now-seemingly-sensible cancellation of the College World Series in June.

We’re also basically at a point where its likely that all prep sports around the country will be cancelled as well.

Its amazing.

I’ve covered the CWS for years, covering prep baseball in the DC/MD/VA areas is an annual tradition; not in 2020.  There’s nothing.

My son’s little league?  Probably gone.  He’s in a critical development year in the 7-8yr old range; this will set back his class for years to come.

So, now the question is … when do you think MLB will return?  Will it?  Do you think we’ll be past this crisis by the all Star Break in mid July?

If this stretches into August … and the players need a 4-week spring training … what time is left?  Would you run a season for a month and a half?

There’s all sorts of articles about service time, negotiations ongoing, etc.  To take a simple example: what would you do with Mookie Betts and the Dodgers if the season goes poof?  Both sides have pretty decent arguments:

  • Betts would argue he was blocked from fulfilling his end of the contract and should be a free agent.
  • Dodgers would argue that they traded assets to acquire  him and never got a day of playing time out of him so he should play another season for htem.

What a mess.

Any predictions out there?

My hope is for a mid-July restart, then a two month sprint of a season Aug and Sept (60 games or there abouts), maybe entirely within division, to determine the conventional playoff slat of 5 teams/league.  It will be an entirely unbalanced schedule but so be it.  I’d exactly pro-rate a “year” of service time to the actual days played (meaning if they do a 60-day season that’s the new 182-day “service year prorated so that each 2020 day is worth 3 non-2020 service days).  Yeah the teams like the Dodgers that acquired players get screwed, but they’re also paying pro-rated salaries thanks to natioanl emergency clauses and force majeure clauses in contracts.  Not fair to all players … but everyone takes a hit.

Written by Todd Boss

March 23rd, 2020 at 8:33 pm

Draft Tracker and Big Board Administration

26 comments

Hello all.  Quick news for 2020.

Two of the most vital online resources that I (and many other Nats fans) use are the “Big Board” and the “Draft Tracker” google spreadsheets.

In case you’re not aware of what these resources are:

  • The Big Board is a multi-tab Google spreadsheet that maintains several vital resources for the current season:
    • The Roster Tab: this keeps track of the current rosters of each of Washington’s 8 affiliates (MLB, AAA, AA, High-A, Low-A, Short-A, GCL, DSL plus known players in Extended Spring).
    • The Releases Tab: keeps track of player releases (or otherwise departing) across all the affiliates, both in the off-season and during the season
    • The Options Tab keeps track of Player Options for the 40-man roster
  • The Draft Tracker is one big Google spreadsheet that has every Nats draft pick in one place ever since the franchise moved to 2005, with schools, known bonus amounts and player disposision.

These resources have been around for many years.   In the beginning, they were created/updated by Brian Oliver, the founder of the original Nats prospect tracking website NatsFarm.com.  Then the anonymous “Springfield Fan” took over for a while.  Then Luke Erickson of NatioanlsProspects.com got involved and was a primary maintainer/creator for  years, first as “Sue Dinem” and then as himself.  In fact, these two sites are now so old that i’m not sure even who gets credit for creating them initially (so, apologies if I got it wrong who started them).

This post though is to basically announce that yours truly is taking over admin and updating of both sites.  The conversation to make this change got started in the fall when I offered to do some updates on the 2019 draft class for the Draft Tracker (which was still incomplete), and then one thing led to another and .. well now i’m the owner.

I have made some updates/additions to the two pages since taking over:

  • I’ve updated the Draft Tracker for the 2019 class, and have updated all the past classes for known player movement for this off-season.  With Ryan Zimmerman‘s option getting declined, the oldest surviving originally drafted player still with the team is Michael A. Taylor, drafted in in the 6th round of 2009.  Technically Stephen Strasburg was also a 2009 draftee of course, but his 6-week foray into free agency puts him a step below Taylor in Nats longevity :-)
  • I have also added in my personal draft class notes for the last five drafts (2015-2019 inclusive).  These spreadsheets duplicate a lot of the main draft tracker information, but are useful during the draft class negotiations to figure out how close the team is to their respective caps each year (that’s primarily how I use them each season).
  • I’ve updated the Big board for all post 2019 season movement, which include dozens of major- and minor league free agents.
  • The options tab is updated, including recently discovered 4th options for Erick Fedde and Raudy Read.
  • I’ve uploaded to the Big Board my master Nats Prospect Ranking XLS, which contains every Nats prospect ranking I could find dating to 2005.   This is a running XLS i’ve maintained for years to keep track of all prospects in the system.  Now i’ve put it online and will keep updating it as we get new rankings throughout the off-season.
  • I also uploaded my 2020 Payroll tracker that basically now emulates what Cots does … I figured i’d put this online to refer to instead of just mentioning it when I post, so you can “see my work.”

Basically, I went through a lot of the resources that i’ve been maintaining myself for  years and put them online.

Anyway; now if you run into an issue or an error on the pages you know who to call.

Any suggestions or comments, please let me know.

A sincere thanks to all who have kept these sites running in the past.  15 years of franchise data is now stored online in these spreadsheets in one form or another.  Great stuff. I’m glad I can help going forward.

Happy New  Year!

Written by Todd Boss

January 2nd, 2020 at 11:45 am

Nats 2020 Payroll Projections: how much do we have to spend this off-season?

11 comments

The final piece of the pre-2020 off-season analysis is payroll (well, except for non-tender analysis, which is just a few million one way or the other this year).

All the player/club options were already exercised, we’ve done rule-5, and we’ve done options analysis.

As we stand right now; we have 31 players on the 40 man roster and a whole slew of “holes” in the roster to fill.  Well, lets talk about how much money we have to spend by first starting with what we likely already have on the books for 2020.   Lets review by player category.

NOTE: the following tables do have “luxury tax” dollars and “real dollars,” but honestly i’m not sure why anyone cares about the real dollars being spent when the team is clearly attempting to stay under the luxury tax.  so, for my purposes I really only look at/care about the luxury tax dollars.

Under Contract for 2020 – 6

Player2020 25-man prediction?Current or 2019 Contract2020 Lux Tax2020 Real dollars
Scherzer, Maxx7yr/$210M (15-21), half deferred2868937635920616
Corbin, Patrickx6yrs/$140M2333333319416667
Eaton, Adamx5 years/$23.5M (2015-19), options95000009500000
Sanchez, Anibalx2yr/$19M with 2021 option90000009000000
Doolittle, Seanx5ry/$10.5M plus options65000006500000
Suzuki, Kurtx2yr/$10M50000006000000

Total of  $82,022,709 for these 6 players.  As we sign FAs, they’ll get added to this section.

Arbitration Eligible Players for 2020 – 9

Player2020 25-man prediction?Current or 2019 ContractMy Guess
Turner, Treax1 year/$3.725M (2019)8000000
Taylor, Michaelx1 year/$3.25M (2019)4500000
Strickland, Hunterx1 year/$1.3M (2019)2500000
Elias, Roenisx1 year/$910,000 (2019)1300000
Guerra, Javyx1 year/$800,000 (2019)1200000
Difo, Wilmerx1 year/$581,100 (2019)800000
Ross, Joex1 year/$1M (2019)1400000
Glover, Kodax1 year/$564,300 (2019)750000
Barrett, Aaronx1 year/minor league750000

Total of  $21,200,000 for all 9 players, assuming that we tender all 9 and that my estimates are close.  Cot’s total estimate for our 9 arb players is  $19,750,000 while MLBtraderumors is  $19,950,000; i’m a bit heavy on my estimates, mostly with what Michael A Taylor would fetch in arbitration.

We’ll do a non-tender post later on, but suffice it to say that between options crunches and 2019 performance of some of these players, we may “save” a few million in projected payroll here.

Pre Arbitration MLB players for 2020 – 16

Player2020 25-man prediction?Current or 2019 Contract
Fedde, Erickx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Suero, Wanderx1 year/$562,500 (2019)
Williams, Austen1yr Minor League deal (19)
Soto, Juanx1 year/$578,300 (2019)
Robles, Victorx1 year/$557,800 (2019)
Sanchez, Adrianx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Voth, Austinx1yr Minor League deal (19)
McGowin, Dustin1yr Minor League deal (19)
Read, Raudyx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Stevenson, Andrew1 year/$559,100 (2019)
Bourque, Jamesx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Rainey, Tannerx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Noll, Jake1 year/$555,000 (2019)
Barrera, Tres1yr Minor League deal (19)
Kieboom, Carterx1yr Minor League deal (19)
Braymer, Ben1yr Minor League Deal (20)

More than half the existing 40-man roster are pre-arb.  Instead of trying to guess what salary they’ll get assigned, we assume that the 11 pre-arb players required to fill out a 26-man each earn $580k, for a total of  $6,380,000.

Non-active roster 40-man players – 14

At some point we’ll assume we’ll have a full 40-man roster, with the remaining 14 players each estimated at $150k.  14*150k = $2,100,000.

then, we have to add in a benefits estimate of $15,000,000 for the team.

that gives us a grand total current payroll estimate for 2020 of:

82022709<-- under contract
21200000<-- arb
6380000<-- pre arb
2100000<-- 40-man
15000000<-- benefits
126702709<-- total payroll estimate right now
208000000<-- Luxury tax cap for 2020
81297291<-- room under cap right now

So we’re right around $126M in committed dollars right now, and we have about $81M to play with in the FA market.

Coincidentally i’m not the only one doing this analysis: i’m roughly $855k off from Cots’ estimates and pretty close to other Nats bloggers doing the same.

plenty of room to give Strasburg and Rendon $35M each!  (just kidding; probably only really possible to get one or the other and still handle all our other needs).

 

 

Written by Todd Boss

November 25th, 2019 at 1:40 pm

Nat’s 40-man Option Status for 2020 and what it means for the off-season

16 comments

Ross is one of the tougher options crunch players the Nats have to decide upon this off-season. Photo Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Ross is one of the tougher options crunch players the Nats have to decide upon this off-season.
Photo Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

We’ve alluded to this point in multiple comments under past comments, but its time to put pencil to paper.

Right now (ahead of any FA signings), the Nats 40-man roster sits at 31 players, with Ben Braymer having been added to avoid Rule-5 exposure yesterday … and one third of those players are out of options for next season.  A number of those players also seem to have little chance of actually making an active roster of a major league team, which means that they could be early off-season outright fodder if the team wants to try to slip them through waivers and outright them back into the system.

Lets take a quick run through each of the categories of Nats 40-man players and option status.

(by the way, yes I know its a 26-man roster in 2020; all my XLSs need updating).

Category 1:  Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service) – 6 current players

Player2020 25-man opening day GuessService Time post 2019First Added to 40-manOption Years UsedOptions left?Notes
Scherzer, Maxx11.079May 200720082
Eaton, Adamx7.030Sept 201220132Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017
Doolittle, Seanx7.122Nov 20102011,20121Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017
Suzuki, Kurtx12.113Jun 2007none3
Corbin, Patrickx7.105Apr 201220122Achieved 5yrs svc in 2017
Sanchez, Anibalx13.083Nov 200520062

Interestingly, the Nats roster last  year had no less than 16 such players; Veterans with 5+ years of service who could refuse demotion/make any available options immaterial.  Indeed, it was a veteran team.  Now 10 of those guys are FAs or out of the organization.

Category 2: Options Avail but are MLB entrenched – 5 current players

Player2020 25-man opening day GuessService Time post 2019First Added to 40-manOption Years UsedOptions left?Notes
Turner, Treax3.135Aug 201520162still pissed he was called up so early, but he's in AAA to start 2016, which preserved an extra yr of control but did not save Super2 status for 2019
Soto, Juanx1.134May 2018none3yet to be optioned
Robles, Victorx1.052Sep 201720182
Suero, Wanderx1.123Nov 201720182
Rainey, Tannerx0.158Apr 20182018,20191
Jk

Not much to see here; all 5 of these guys are important parts of next  year’s team.  As noted, the early call up of Trea Turner eventually came back to bite the team, and probably costs them in the range of $10-$12M in payroll over the course of his four arbitration periods.  An expensive mistake.

Category 3: Options Available, jeopardizing 2019 25-man roster status – 3 current players

Player2020 25-man opening day GuessService Time post 2019First Added to 40-manOption Years UsedOptions left?Notes
Glover, Koda3.051July 201620162No option used in 2018 or 2019; either hurt or on roster
Stevenson, Andrew1.063July 20172018,20191Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count
Kieboom, Carter0.012Apr 201920192

I suppose one could make the argument that Carter Kieboom should be in the Category 2; right now we don’t really have a 2B or a 3B on the roster and he could play either.  But for now, i’m going on first impressions … and he did not make a good one early in the season.

Category 4: Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2018 – 7 current players

Player2020 25-man opening day GuessService Time post 2019First Added to 40-manOption Years UsedOptions left?Notes
McGowin, Kyle0.069Sept 201820192
Williams, Austen1.028Sept 2018none3
Bourque, James0.005Nov 201820192
Barrera, Tres0.022Sept 2019none3
Barrett, Aaron2.170Nov 201320142
Noll, Jake0.017mar 201920192

I’m guessing that if any of these six players start on the active roster next opening day, then we’ve had a huge injury spike in Spring Training.  Is Austen Williams healthy?  Was Aaron Barrett‘s call-up more than just a feel-good story?  We’ll see.  Nonetheless, it seems like all 6 of these guys are in AAA next year to start.

Note: I wrote this prior to the rule-5 additions Ben Braymer.  So technically this section is 7 current players, not 6.  But I think its safe to say that our new rule5 additions are guaranteed to both start the year in the minors in 2020.


 

Which leaves us with…

Category 5:  No Options Available – 10 current players of the 30 on the active roster.

Player2020 25-man opening day GuessService Time post 2019First Added to 40-manOption Years UsedOptions left?Notes
Guerra, Javyx4.415Nov 2009?0
Strickland, Hunterx4.163Nov 2012?0
Taylor, Michaelx4.129Nov 20132014,2016,20190
Elias, Roenisx4.069Mar 2014?0
Ross, Joex4.018June 20152015,2017,20190Optioned for roster reasons in 2017.
Difo, Wilmerx3.016Nov 20142015,2016,20180Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count
Fedde, Erickx1.099July 20172017,2018,20190
Sanchez, Adrian1.083June 20172017,2018,20190
Voth, Austin0.127Nov 20162017,2018,20190
Read, Raudy0.063Nov 20162017,2018,20190

So, this is kind of the point of this article.  Which of these 10 players are going to stick, which are players the team has to make some tough decisions on?  Lets go player by player in the order they are in this table (which is sorted by Service time):

  1. Guerra, Javy: the team outrighted him mid-season, then recalled him the next day and he eventually made the post-season roster.  An odd set of circumstances for a DFA.   His overall 2019 numbers weren’t great; I wonder if he’s thrown into a general “RH middle reliever” competition in Spring Training 2020 and then either makes the team or gets DFA’d again.  He can’t be outrighted again, so he’d have to choose whether to stay with the org.
  2. Strickland, Hunter: seems like a guarantee to make the 2020 roster, irregardless of his option status.
  3. Taylor, Michael: you have to think his time has some to an end with this team.  Optioned to AA despite being on a $3.25M contract; they can’t possibly tender him for 2020 can they?   Hit kind of an empty .250 this year (1 homer in 53 games/97 PAs), and is arbitration eligible so he’ll “earn” an increase in pay.  But he played really well in the post-season, hitting two homers while covering for an injured Victor Robles.  Do you tender him and pay him $4M to be a 4th outfielder?  He’s undoubtedly solid defensively.  But he offers little to no value as a PH.  Do you save $4M and use Andrew Stevenson as a 4th OF instead?
  4. Elias, Roenis: another guy like Strickland who wasn’t acquired to get cut.  He’s on the 2020 roster … and oh, Davey Martinez?  Don’t f*cking let him hit this year.
  5. Ross, Joe: Well, the 2020 Nats need a 5th starter right now (and, technically also need a 2nd starter if they don’t resign Stephen Strasburg).  Is Ross the leading candidate right now?  I think so: in 6 starts last year after the team finally figured out that he couldn’t be a reliever he was competent: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA but a 1.455 whip that probably made his FIP look awful.  Is that 5th starter material?   I’ve always thought so … but now he has competition, mainly from two guys on this list.  If he doesn’t make the rotation, I don’t know what you do with him.  Clearly he can’t be a reliever; and if he is facing an options crunch DFA … nobody’s going to trade for him.  They’ll just wait for him to declare FA and pounce.
  6. Difo, Wilmer: everybody needs a utility guy who can play SS in a pinch; is Difo that guy for us?  He has been, traditionally, for years now.  But without options he’s gotta earn his spot.  There’s a slew of guys out there who can do what he’s done: play competent middle infield and hit above the Mendoza line.  I’m guessing, like Guerra above him, he’ll face competition from NRI veterans and Sanchez (see below) who do the same thing he does and if he makes the team so be it, otherwise he faces the DFA deadline come 4/1/20.
  7. Fedde, Erick: this one is tough.  Like Ross, he was called into reliever duty in 2019 and was not great at it.  And he was in the rotation for a bit, with weaker numbers than Ross.  Fedde now has 26 starts across three seasons with ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00.  I know he has his defenders … and maybe you could argue that his relief numbers in 2019 weren’t as bad (he did have just a 1.132 FIP in 9 relief innings), but the clock has run out.  What do you do here?  I’m guessing he competes with Ross and Voth for the 5th starter (again, going under the assumption we re-sign Strasburg) and if he doesn’t make it he becomes the long-man in the pen and begins life as a reliever.
  8. Sanchez, Adrian posted just an OPS+ figure of 23 for 2019.  In 32 ABs he did not have one extra base hit.  I’m guessing, like Difo, he’s in ST2020 competition and gets DFA’d on 4/1/20.
  9. Voth, Austin: he’s got the least service time of any of the three starters he seems likely to compete with for the 5th starter job, but easily out-performed both of them in his 2019 starts.  8 starts, 3.30 ERA, 1.053 whip; he got it done this year.  I think Voth has the inside track on the 5th starter job right now over both Ross and Fedde, which puts both of them at a disadvantage.
  10. Read, Raudy; He’s got the least amount of service time here (just 63 days) and seems the least likely to make the opening day roster (i’d have to think the team is investing in a veteran FA catcher).  I’ve got Read ahead of Taylor Gushue on the Catcher depth chart; they both hit well in AAA this year with the PCL parks and the inflated ball, but Read has also shown a solid bat all the way up the chain.  Is that enough to get him onto the opening day roster?  I don’t think so; i just don’t think he’s got enough experience to merit a 2x/week backup catcher role to a starter in Kurt Suzuki who’s on the wrong side of 35 and will miss time.  I sense Read comes to ST, helps out with the catching load, sticks around just in case there’s an injury, then hits the DFA trail.

Summary of what I think eventually happens to all 10 guys in one (or two) words:

  1. Guerra, Javy: DFA’d
  2. Strickland, Hunter: 2020 bullpen
  3. Taylor, Michael: Non-tendered
  4. Elias, Roenis: 2020 bullpen
  5. Ross, Joe: DFA’d
  6. Difo, Wilmer: 2020 bench
  7. Fedde, Erick: 2020 bullpen
  8. Sanchez, Adrian DFA’d
  9. Voth, Austin: 5th starter
  10. Read, Raudy; DFA’d

I mean no offense to any of these players of course; its just that options crunches force teams into tough decisions.  But I see half these guys getting shed at some point.

Prep Baseball Coverage 2019: Player of the Year Lists

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Last post covering local baseball for 2019; this one tries to summarize all the various “Player of the Year” announcements from various shops, both local and national.

I kind of ran out of gas on this one; fighting through a dozen different paywalls and I never could find the official announcements of Virginia regional all-player lists.   But this is still a pretty good summary of the various POTY lists.

 


 

Individual Player Accolades Announced

In addition to being playoff-baseball time, this is also the time of the year that we start to see player awards.  I’ll put these in as they publish, but we won’t expect most of these until the end of June.

National Lists and State breakouts as available.

  • Gatorade Player of the year awards.  National POTY was Bobby Witt Jr., drafted 2nd overall in the 2019 baseball draft.
    • Maryland:  Jack Bulger, Jr. C from DeMatha.  Early commit to Vanderbilt.
    • Washington DCCollin Bosley-Smith, Jr. RHP from Wilson.   Early commit to Duke.
    • VirginiaNate Savino, Jr. LHP from Potomac Falls.  Early commit to UVA.
  • MaxPreps High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock named to 2nd team.
  • Baseball America High School All-Americans: no POTY declared.  No local players on 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams.
  • USA Today/American Family All-USA teamsBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.  Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha) named to 1st team, Brett Cook from Benedictine 2nd team.  Jamari Baylor HM.
  • American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA)/Rawlings 2019 High School All AmericansBobby Witt named POTY.  local players Jack Bulger C DeMatha and Joe Clancy RHP Westfields named to 3rd team.
  • Collegiate Baseball High School All-AmericansBobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players on 1st team: Jose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore (NC State commit.).  2nd team: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Parker Landwehr C Calvert Hall (Boston College commit).
  • Perfectgame.org/Rawlings All-Americans: (unclear if they’re still doing these lists).
    • Maryland:
    • Washington DC:
    • Virginia:
  • PrepBaseballReport; Brett Bady national POTY.  12th overall pick by NY Mets.
    • All Maryland TeamRyan Calvert, RHP/1B from LaPlata HS POTY as a junior.
    • All Virginia/DC Team:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.

 

DC/MD/VA Local

  • Washington Post All-Met team 2019Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro TeamJose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore.  NC State commit.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro Team: (behind a paywall)
  • Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater teamMason Dunaway, SS Hickory is POTY.  JMU commit.
  • Virginia Class 6 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater) All Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA, inner suburbs) All-Regional teamLyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • Region D (Northern VA, Western Suburbs) All Regional teamZach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield HS POTY.  ECU commit like his brother ahead of him.
  • Virginia Class 5 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamBen Williamson, SS Freedom-South Riding.  William & Mary commit.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional teamDrew Harlow, RHP/SS Halifax county POTY.  Undecided/no commit as of 6/8/19
  • Virginia Class 4 All Region Teams
    • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
    • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
    • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional teamJoe Vogatsky, jr RHP/3B from Kettle Run HS POTY.   early commit to JMU.
    • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team:
  • Other Virginia All-Regional teams: harder to come by:
    • Class 3 Region B (Culpepper/Warrenton area) All Regional teamJake (Jakob) Dudley, 1B/3B from Culpeper County HS is POTY.  No college listed.
    • Class 2 Region B (NorthWest VA) all Region Team:  T.R. Williams, Sophomore RHP from Page County POTY.
  • Northern Virginia All-District teams:
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine top 100 listJoey Kamide‘s top 100 players from the 85 high schools in the NoVa coverage area.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • VHSL All-State Teams: all 6 teams available from this link.
    • 6-A: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
    • 5-A: Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
    • 4-A: Quade Tomlin, SS jr from Liberty Christian Academy POTY.  Liberty U commit.
    • 3-A: Jacob Critzer, C Fluvana County HS POTY.    No college commitment known.
    • 2-A: Andrew Potojecki, RHP Chatham HS (Danville) POTY.  Longwood College commit.
    • 1-A: Matthew Kleinfelter, RHP Lancaster HS POTY.   JMU commit.
  • VISAA’s All-State teams
    • Division III All State Team: Tanner Schobel, SS Walsingham Academy  (Williamsburg) POTY as Junior.  Early Virginia Tech commit.
    • Division II All State Team: Jeremy Wagner, OF/RHP from the Miller School (Albemarle) POTY as Junior.  Early Austin Peay commit.
    • Division I All State Team: Aiden Kuhle, RHP/1B from Cape Henry Collegiate (Virginia Beach) POTY.  Roanoke College commit.
  • Maryland All-MIAA All-State teams:
    • MIAA A division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA B division: behind a paywall
    • MIAA C division: behind a paywall
  • Maryland State Association of Baseball Coaches (MSABC) All-Maryland teams: four regional all-star teams picked for exhibitions.
  • Maryland Brooks Robinson All-Star game rosters
  • Anne-Arundel County All-Baseball team: unknown
  • Montgomery County All-Baseball Team: unknown
  • All Baltimore-City Baseball team: behind a paywall
  • All Fredericksburg Baseball team:  Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
  • All WCAC: unknown
  • All IAC: unknown
  • All MAC: unknown

If I missed an award, or if you know of something I don’t, don’t hesitate to post.

 


Past awards that no longer seem to be in existence:

  • Louisville Slugger All-Americans: last awarded in 2016.
  • National High School Coaches Association (NHSCA) POTY: last awarded in 2017.
  • Under Armor All-Americans: perhaps there used to be selections, but now there’d just a game mid-July of mostly rising senior all stars.
  • USA Today/American Family All-State Teams and POTYs: stopped doing state-level all-state baseball teams for 2019.

Prep Baseball Coverage 2019; DC, MD, VA Regional and State Champs

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Welcome to my DC Area Prep Baseball Tourney coverage for 2019.   We kind of got pressed for time this year, so we’re summarizing at the finish of all the area regional and state championships this year all in one post instead of spreading it among 3-4 different posts like we’ve done in the past.

This post summarizes the State championships for DC, MD and VA, highlighting the regional champs, and reports on the winners of the various big-time private school conferences.

 


Virginia

All state brackets available from this link at VHSL, and the regional brackets are here.  In 2019, The state semis/finals got pushed a week across the board due to weather.  This gave pitching-weak teams a distinct advantage versus having to win a 3-games-in-5 days format.  All finals were on Friday 6/14/19.


Class 6 State Finals:  thanks to NovaBaseballmagazine.com’s coverage of Class 6 Regionals.  State Class 6 Bracket.  Records entering the state tourney.

  • Region 6A: #1 Ocean Lakes (17-6), #2 Cox (18-5).  Ocean Lakes wins the region as 5th seed, #1 seed Grandby upset first round.
  • Region 6B: #1 James River (19-3), #2 Colonial Forge (16-8).  Top seeds Cosby and Thomas Dale both upset first round.
  • Region 6C: #1 Lake Braddock (23-3), #2 West Springfield (14-11).   Region final a rematch of the district final; a very weak Region this year (only 7 teams even with winning records).
  • Region 6D: #1 Westfield (22-3), #2 Centreville (18-8); Region final a rematch of the district final.

Class 6 State Quarters results:  All four regional champs advanced in close games on 6/4/19. Westfield ended West Springfield’s attempts to repeat as State Champs 5-4 in walk-off fashion.  Ocean Lakes took out Colonial Forge 2-0.  Lake Braddock held off Centreville 5-4, scoring 5 in the first and making them stick, and James River beat Cox 4-3.

Class 6 State Semis: Both Northern Virginia teams advanced to the final; Lake Braddock taking out James River 9-6, and Westfield taking out Ocean Lakes 9-7.

Class 6 State Final: Lake Braddock wins its first State title since 2012 6-2 over Westfield behind a huge day from All Met POTY Lyle Miller-Green‘s massive day at the plate.


Class 5 State Finals:  thanks to NovaBaseballmagazine.com’s coverage of Class 5 RegionalsClass 5 State Bracket.  Records entering the state tourney.

  • Region 5A: #1 Hickory (22-1), #2 Menchville (19-4).  #2 seed one-loss Hampton upset early, but dominant Hickory holds serve as one of the best teams in the state.
  • Region 5B: #1 Mills Godwin (19-3), #2 Prince George (19-3):  Regional final cancelled; #1 Mills Godwin given title.
  • Region 5C: #1 Stone Bridge (16-9), #2 Broad Run (16-9): Stone Bridge upset both its higher-seeded district rivals to win Region.
  • Region 5D: #1 Stafford (21-3), #2 Halifax (22-3).   Huge upset of #1 seed Potomac clears path for Stafford to take regional title.

Class 5 State Quarters results: One upset in the State Quarters.  Halifax destroyed Stone Bridge 11-0 to advance.  The other regional champs all went through: Stafford blanked Broad Run 5-0.  Hickory squeaked by Prince George 3-1 to end their chances to repeat as State champs.  And Mills Godwin blanked Menchville 5-0.

Class 5 State Semis Results: Stafford walked-off Hickory in a crazy 11-10 game, while Mills Godwin walked-off Halifax in the other 5-4 to advance to the state title game.

Class 5 State Final: Stafford held on to beat Mills Godwin 4-3.


Class 4 State Finals: thanks to NovaBaseballmagazine.com’s coverage of Class 4 Regionals.  Class 4 State Bracket.  Records entering the state tourney.

  • Region 4A: #1 Lafayette (16-7), #2 Great Bridge (18-6); Lafayette beat top seed and defending regional champ Grafton en route to the upset title.
  • Region 4B: #1 Hanover (19-2), #2 Midlothian (15-7); Hanover cruised to title as #1 seed, looking to get back to the state final for the 3rd time in 4 years.  Midlothian makes the state tourney for the 1st time since 2005.
  • Region 4C: #1 Riverside (16-7), #2 Kettle Run (15-9): There’s only 4 teams in Region 4C: Riverside Beat the 19-3 Sherando en route to the title.
  • Region 4D: #1 Liberty Christian Academy (24-1), #2 Salem (18-5); LCA does not slip up this year, cruising to title as #1 seed.

Class 4 State Quarters results:  Just one upset in the quarters, with Great Bridge downing Hanover 7-4 in a rematch of the 2014 AAA state championship.  Liberty Christian destroyed Kettle Run 11-0.    Lafayette blanked Midlothian 8-0.  Riverside beat Salem easily 9-3.

Class 4 State Semis Results: Lafayette continued its upsetting ways, taking out one of the top teams in the state in Liberty Christian 8-2, while Riverside blanked Great Bridge 3-0 to advance to the state title game for the 2nd time in 3 years.

Class 4 State Final: Riverside literally “threw away” the game, losing on a 2-run error to Lafayette, completing an improable run for the Williamsburg-based school.


Class 3 State Finals: thanks to NovaBaseballmagazine.com’s coverage of Class 3 Regionals.  Class 3 State Bracket.  Records entering the state tourney.

  • Region 3A: #1 Tabb (19-3), #2 Park View-South Hill (22-2): #1/#2 seeds of the regi0n advance.
  • Region 3B: #1 Brentsville District (20-3), #2 Warren County (16-6): Region goes chalk, #1 over #2 in final.
  • Region 3C: #1 Fluvanna County (20-3), #2 Brookville (18-8): #1 seed Fluvanna County holds serve.
  • Region 3D: #1 Lord Botetourt (15-8), #2 Abingdon (22-3); Lord Botetourt wins region as #6 seed over top-seeded Abingdon.

Class 3 State Quarters results:  Just one upset in the quarters, with Brookville beating Lord Botetourt 6-2.  Tabb beat Warren County 7-5, Fluvanna eased past Abington 1-0, and Brentsville squeaked past Park View 5-4.

Class 3 State Semis Results: Tabb over Brookeville 4-3, Fluvanna over Prince William County’s Brentsville 5-4.

Class 3 State Final: Fluvanna County out-slugged Tabb 16-10 for the title.


Smaller ClassificationsClass 2 State Bracket and Class 1 State Bracket

  • Class 2 State Quarter finalists: King William, Stuarts Draft, Chatham, Lebanon as region winners, Nandua, Page County (defending state champ), Appomattox County and John Battle as regional runners-up.
  • Class 2 State Semi finalists: Lebanon over Page County, Chatham over Stuarts Draft.
  • Class 2 State Final: Chatham beats Lebanon 23-5.
  • Class 1 State Quarter finalists: Lancaster, Riverheads (defending state champ), Auburn (2017 state champ), Patrick Henry-Glade spring region winners, Colonial Beach, William Campbell (2015 state champ), Galax, Chilhowie as regional runners-up.
  • Class 1 State Semi finalists:  Lancaster over Patrick Henry , Auburn over Riverheads (all four regional champs won in the quarters)
  • Class 1 State Final: Auburn defeats Lancaster 9-0 for the title.

Recent Virginia HS champs:  Virginia has Class 1-A through Class 6-A  Before 2014, we just AAA, AA and A.

2018: See this post for the 2018 state tourney wrap-up

  • In 6-A, West Springfield blew open the game late to defeat Western Branch 12-2 to take their first title since 2010.  Thomas Dale, Lake Braddock semis.
  • In 5-A, Prince George beats Potomac 8-0.  Freedom-South Riding, Deep Run semis.
  • In 4-A, Salem walked-off against Jamestown to win their first state title 2-1.  Grafton, Fauquier semis.
  • In the smaller classifications, Spotsylvania won 3-A, Page County won 2-A and Riverheads won 1-A.

2017: See this post for 2017’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Cox 6-4.  Oakton, Patriot semis.
  • In 5-A, Briar Woods d Halifax 5-4 in 14 innings.  Menchville and Prince George semi-finalists.
  • In 4-A, Liberty Christian Academy d Hanover 8-5.  Harrisonburg, Great Bridge semi-finalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Turner Ashby won 3-A, Dan River won 2-A and Auburn won 1-A.

2016: See this post for 2016’s state tournament wrap-up for all 6 divisions

  • In 6-A, Chantilly d Battlefield 3-2.  Hylton & Cosby state semis.
  • In 5-A, Nansemond River defeated Mountain View 5-3.  Potomac, Mills Godwin semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Liberty Christian Academy 13-12.  Jamestown, Kettle Run semi finalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Rustberg repeated 3-A, Maggie Walker won in 2-A and Rappahannock won 1-A.

2015: See this post for 2015’s state tournament wrapup for all 6 divisions:

  • In 6-A, Madison d Chantilly 6-5.  First Colonial & defending champ Western Branch were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Stone Bridge d Marshall 9-4.  2014 finalists Hickory & Freeman were state semifinalists.
  • In 4-A, Glen Allen d Jefferson Forrest 9-3.  Fauquier & Hanover were state semifinalists.
  • In the smaller classifications, Lafayette won 3-A, Virginia High repeated in 2-A and William Campbell won 1-A.

2014: see this post for 2014’s state tournament wrap up for all 6 divisions.

  • In 6-A, Western Branch d Chantilly 6-4.  McLean and Cosby were state semifinalists.
  • In 5-A, Hickory d Freeman 6-4.  Stone Bridge and the surprising Freedom-South Riding semi finalists.
  • In 4-A, Hanover d Millbrook 7-1.
  • In the smaller classifications, Loudoun Valley won 3-A, Virginia High won 2-A and Northumberland won 1-A.

2013: AAA: Hanover d Great Bridge. Hanover’s super-junior Derek Casey (committed to UVA) outlasts Great Bridge and their 1st round talent Connor Jones (now attending UVA after spurning a likely late 1st round draft position).  Lake Braddock and Oakton beaten in the semis.

2012: AAA: Lake Braddock d Kellam 4-0. Lake Braddock lost to West Springfield in the regional title game but then blitzed to a state championship.

2011: AAA: Great Bridge d South County in the state final, giving the powerful South County its first and only loss on the season after starting the season 28-0.  Lake Braddock was the regional finalist and lost to Great Bridge in the state quarters.

2010: AAA: West Springfield d Woodbridge in the final, giving Woodbridge its only loss on the year. WT Woodson regional finalist.

Complete history of Virginia HS Champions: from VHSL’s website.  Covers all sports and has results for a century.  Lots of fun to dig through.  Note: if this link fails, its because VHSL has moved it yet again; I have an updated copy of the history books in PDF format if you’re interested.

 


Maryland

Full Brackets here at the MPSAA website and direct links to the four State-wide brackets are linked directly below.  Here’s your 2019 champs.

  • Maryland 4-A: Regional champs Eleanor Roosevelt (undefeated entering playoffs), Sherwood, Old Mill and Walt Whitman are regional champs.  Sherwood and Old Mill in the final, and Old Mill wins the state title in 9 innings, giving Sherwood only its 2nd loss of the year.
  • Maryland 3-A: Regional champs Northern, Milton Wright, J.M. Bennett, and defending state champ Thomas Johnson are regional champs.    J.M. Bennett beats C. Milton Wright in the final.
  • Maryland 2-A: Regional champs La Plata, Hereford (both defending regional champs), Fallston, Middletown.  LaPlata beats Middletown in its 3rd state final in four years.
  • Maryland 1-A: Regional champs McDonough, Randallstown, Col. Richardson and Boonsboro (McDonough and Boonsboro repeat as regional champs).  In the final, Col. Richardson beats McDonough in 9 innings.

A quick list of past Maryland State champions by division:

 


DC

Past DC Winners:

  • 2018: DCIAA = Wilson.  DCSAA = Wilson.
  • 2017: DCIAA = Wilson.  DCSAA = Gonzaga
  • 2016: DCIAA = Wilson.  DCSAA = St. Albans
  • 2015: DCIAA = Wilson.  DCSAA = Gonzaga
  • 2014: DCIAA = Wilson.  DCSAA = St. Johns
  • 2013 and prior: Wilson hasn’t lost in the DCIAA in 20 years … finding DCSAA tourney winners on google is tough.

Private Leagues: WCAC/MAC/IAC and VISAA/Maryland Private

State-level Private School tourneys 2019 results.

  • MIAA: All 2019 regular season standings here, and all playoff brackets here.
    • Division A: Calvert Hall regular season champ.   Calvert Hall over Gilman for the Division A playoff title.
    • Division B: Glenelg Country regular season champ.  Gerstell over Boy’s Latin for the Division B  playoff title, coming back from the loser’s bracket to win it.
    • Division C: Concordia Prep regular season champ.   Concordia Prep over Indian Creek in 12 innings for the Division C playoff title.
    • This link at MIAA has the 2019 playoff brackets AND a historical list of all MIAA champs by division dating to 1995.  I’ve got a screen shot just in case it disappears in the future.
  • VISAA:
    • Division I:  Local teams participating included #9 Paul VI, #4 O’Connell, #6 Episcopal, and #7 Flint Hill.  None advanced, as the VISAA Division I tournament was dominated by Richmond teams.  In the end, nationally ranked and #1 seed Benedictine won the Division I title over  #2. St. Christophers.
    • Division II: #1 seed The Miller School runs away with the title.
    • Division III:  #1 seed Walsingham Academy wins the state title.
  • Maryland Private School Tournament; (unsure this event happens any more)

DC-area Private School Leagues results for 2019:

A side-note: DC private school baseball power house Riverdale Baptist did not field a Varsity team in 2019 after its coach took a college job, it lost a ton of senior talent and the rest of the remaining seniors all transferred to play for more competitive teams.  For a team that was nationally ranked in 2018, its kind of jarring not to be talking about them in a DC-area prep story.  Lets hope the new coach can get the program back on track.

 


Local and National High School Baseball Ranking Lists: highlighting where local teams ended up.

  • Washington Post All Met Sports Area top-10 ranking (5/20/19): St. Johns the clear #1 team in the area, winning WCAC, DCSAA titles.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine.com Rankings: (5/28/19): NoVa Class 6 regional champs Westfields and Lake Braddock 1-2 in the rankings.
  • VISAA maintains Private school polls/rankings (5/6/19): The two Division 1 finalists are 1-2 in the Division 1 poll.  The two teams who won Division II and III also #1 in their respective polls.
  • PrepBaseballReport maintains a VA State-Wide Power25 Rankings (5/20/19): St. Johns, LCA and Benedictine are top 3 teams.
  • Baltimore Sun Top-10 Poll Archives: (April 2019): looks like they weren’t very well kept up, but MIAA Division 1 power Calvert Hall listed as #1 Baltimore area team.
  • The Virginian Pilot Top-10 for Hampton Roads area: (3/18/19): Hickory named as top team in area.
  • Richmond times-Dispatch”804 Varsity” used to have rankings.
  • Baseball America’s National High School Rankings: (5/21/19): Benedictine #17 in the nation.
  • USA Today High School Experts top 25: (5/26/19) Benedictine #9 in the nation, St. Johns #13.
  • MaxPreps “Excellent 50” ranking: Benedictine #24.

These National rankings are dominated by teams in Texas, Florida and California, as you might expect.  These teams can play nearly 40 games and usually have at least 15-20 under their belts before DC/MD/VA teams even get going.  So its somewhat of an accomplishment just to have a local team get some recognition.  In fact, any cold-weather state team appearing in these lists is pretty special.


Major Newspaper Links/Resources for following prep baseball around the state

  • Washington Post’s AllMetSports section with standings and schedule results.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s high school page has information on some of the programs outside the DC area mentioned in the Maryland section
  • InsideNova.com‘s coverage of high school sports, but has put limits on the number of stories you can read.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch has a HS scoreboard.
  • Hampton Roads Pilot (Hampton Roads) has scores for teams in the Chesapeake/Norfolk/Va Beach area.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine: great coverage of Prep baseball in NorthernVirginia (thanks to Joe Antonellis for the heads up on this great new resource).

Local Newspaper Coverage, including links to many local papers covering smaller jurisdictions.

Non-newspaper Links for Local and National Prep Baseball Coverage

Good Twitter accounts to follow:

  • https://twitter.com/toddeboss/lists/prepbaseball: I maintain an open list at my twitter account via this link, which contains direct links to dozens of local resources (including all the below).  Way too many retweets from the travel team accounts especially, but its a good way to keep up with local ball.
  • https://twitter.com/PBRVirginiaDC: Prep Baseball Report VA/DC coverage
  • https://twitter.com/NVBaseballMag: NoVa Baseball Magazine
  • https://twitter.com/NoVAHSBB
  • https://twitter.com/DynamicBaseball

Written by Todd Boss

June 21st, 2019 at 5:15 pm

Prep Baseball Update #5 2018: DC/MD/VA “Tournament of Champions” brackets

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Welcome to my DC Area Prep Baseball Tourney coverage for 2018.

Here’s the rough schedule of posting and what we’ll cover:

  • #1: DC/MD/VA District High School Tournament Report: post-season kickoff .  Covers: MD regionals, VA district brackets, Private school tourney updates.  Usually publishes the week before Memorial day tournament finals.
  • #2: Maryland State Champs, Virginia District and Regionals.   Covers: MD state finals, VA Districts and Regionals tourneys, DC regular season results.  Usually publishes after the Memorial Day weekend tournaments finish up.
  • #3: Virginia State Champions crowned.  Covers: VA state tourneys, recaps MD, DC, Private School results.  Publishes mid-June once the Va state tourney wraps up.
  • #4: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings; publishes early July once all the all-state lists are published.
  • #5: My theoretical “All DC/MD/VA Dream tournament” pairings (this post), once all the state champs are finalized.

Now that all DC, MD and VA public and private tournaments are complete, and as we wait for all the various local and national Player of the Year lists to publish, here’s a fun thought exercise.  If the various champs could commit to a “Tournament of Champions,” what would it look like?

Here’s a bunch of fun theoretical tourneys, with my predictions on how they’d play out too for the fun of it.

Possible Champions of Champions Baseball post-season tourney ideas


The All-Virginia champions league

This takes the champions from the 6 public divisions plus the 3 Private divisions:

6A: West Springfield (DC southern suburbs)
5A: Prince George (south of Richmond near Petersburg)
4A: Salem (just south of Roanoke in SW Virginia)
3A: Spotsylvania (near Fredericksburg)
2A: Page County (near Harrisonburg)
1A: Riverheads (in Staunton, just south of Harrisonburg)

VISSA Division 1: St. Christopher’s (Western Richmond)
VISSA Division 2: The Miller School (Albemarle, near Charlottesville)
VISSA Division 3: Walsingham Academy (Williamsburg)

What if you seeded this 1-9 based on classifications and played a single elimination tourney?

8/9 play-in: 1A:  versus VISSA Division 3: Riverheads vs Walsingham Academy

1 vs 8/9: 6A vs play-in: West Springfield versus Riverheads
2 vs 7: VISAA Div 1 vs 2A: St. Christopher’s vs Page County
3 vs 6: VISAA Div 2 vs 3A: The Miller School vs Spotsylvania
4 vs 5: 4A vs 5A: Salem versus Prince George

In years past I’d have seeded the public 6-A champ over the VISAA Division 1 champ; perhaps not this year though.  I think your semis in this draw are West Springfield, St. Christopher’s, The Miller School and Prince George.  West Springfield and St. Christopher’s advance to the final, St. Christopher’s wins.


Virginia Public Champions league tourney

Just using the 6 public school champions from Virginia, you could play a mini weekend tournament with two brackets:

Bracket 1:
6A: West Springfield
3A: Spotsylvania
2A: Page County

Bracket 2:
5A: Prince George
4A: Salem
1A: Riverheads

Play a double header round robin on Saturday intra-bracket, then the bracket winners play sunday.  I’d guess the two big teams (West Springfield and Prince George) advance, with West Springfield coming out on top.  In some prior years you could easily argue that the 4-A or 5-A champs despite being from smaller schools were better than the bigger 6-A champ … maybe not this year with all the 4A and 5A upsets we had.


DC/MD/VA showdown; a competition of local champions.

Thanks to redistricting, there’s now really two Class 6 and Class 5 regional winners in the area, adding to this fake tournament.

– Virginia Class 6 Region C champ: West Springfield
– Virginia Class 6 Region D champ: Battlefield
– Virginia Class 5 Region C champ: Freedom-South Riding
– Virginia Class 5 Region D champ: Potomac
– DCIAA champ: Wilson
– DCSAA champ: Also Wilson … so maybe we pull in Gonzaga, since St. Albans is the IAC champ.
– WCAC champ: St. Johns
– IAC champ: St. Albans
– MAC Champ: Potomac School
– PVAC Champ: (not sure they played baseball this season)
– Maryland At-Large: Riverdale Baptist
– Maryland 4A West champ: Bethesda-Chevy Chase
– Maryland 3A West champ: Thomas Johnson

You’d probably seed this as follows:

Riverdale Baptist
St. Johns
Battlefield
West Springfield
Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Potomac
St. Albans
Gonzaga
Thomas Johnson
Freedom-South Riding
Wilson
Potomac School

So a tourney would go:

  • 7 v 10: Thomas Johnson vs Potomac School
  • 8 v 9: Freedom-South Riding vs Wilson
  • 1 v 8/9: Riverdale Baptist vs Freedom-South Riding
  • 2 v 7/10: St. Johns vs Thomas Johnson
  • 3 v 6: Battlefield v Potomac
  • 4 v 5: West Springfield vs B-CC

I’d guess this draw is Riverdale Baptist, St. Johns, Battlefield and West Springfield in the semis, Riverdale Baptist and Battlefield in the final and an easy Riverdale win in the final.


Maryland-Virginia State Champs Show Down

Virginia Public champs
6A: West Springfield
5A: Prince George
4A: Salem
3A: Spotsylvania
2A: Page County
1A: Riverheads

Maryland Public Champs:
4-A: Howard
3-A: Thomas Johnson
2-A: Century
1-A: Boonsboro

Maybe you seed it 1-10 and have play-ins with the smallest teams.

8-9: VA 2A:  vs  MD 1-A: Page County vs Boonsboro
7-10: MD 2-A:  vs VA 1A: Century vs Riverheads

1 VA 6A vs 8/9 play-in: West Springfield vs Page County
2 MD 4-A vs 7/10 play-in: Howard vs Century
3  VA 5A vs #6 VA 3A: Prince George vs Spotsylvania
4  MD 3-A  vs #5 seed VA 4A: Thomas Johnson vs Salem

I’d give the top seeds the semis (West Springfield, Howard, Prince George, Thomas Johnson), West Springfield and Prince George in the final, West Springfield the winner.

 


Private School showdown

VISSA Division 1: St. Christophers
VISSA Division 2: The Miller School
VISSA Division 3: Walsingham Academy

MIAA Class A: Archbishop Curley
MIAA Class B: Boy’s Latin
MIAA Class C: Indian Creek

WCAC: St. Johns (DC)
IAC: St. Albans
MAC: Potomac School
PVAC: ?

Maryland At-Large: Riverdale Baptist

I’d seed this:

1. Riverdale Baptist
2. VISAA Division I
3. MIAA Class A
4. WCAC
5. VISAA Division II
6. IAC
7. MIAA Class B
8. MAC:
9. VISAA Division III
10. MIAA Class C
11. PVAC

hard not to see a Riverdale Baptist-St.Christopher’s final, though the semis between St. Christopher’s and Archbishop Curley would be good.

Written by Todd Boss

July 16th, 2018 at 2:33 pm

Posted in Local Baseball

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